Padres Trades

[Padres]

Yankees trade Christian Walker, Eddy Alvarez, Allan Winans, 2023 Draft Pick 133, 2023 Draft Pick 138 to Padres for Miguel Vargas, Trystan 22-Vrieling, 2023 Draft Pick 95

Miguel Vargas was a team leader for the 2023 IBC White Sox playing all 162 games while leading the team with 25 HR, 83 RBI, 78 runs and 150 hits. He is young and dynamic but wasn't going to start for 2024 IBC Padres. He definitely holds an awesome future value as a hitter in search of a position and has been a core component of my team. Vrieling is a good young promising pitcher whom the real life Yankees drafted in the 3rd round but he battled injuries and didn't pitch much until the 2023 AFL. Pick 95 would been been my 3rd pick in top 100 and now becomes Z's second highest pick in the 2024 draft.

My theme for our initial year in San Diego has been to build a roster built around very good defense and scoring runs - which we must do as our pitching is not good. Christian Walker, a two time gold glover at 1B who hit 33 HR with a 123 OPS+ in real life last season, is the definition of good D/score runs. He will bump Mark Vientos and his 105 OPS+ down to bench position as back up at 1B & 3B while occasionally DHing. 34 year old Eddy Alvarez is likely a one year ZiPs SIM freak with his .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ projection but he will bump Whit Merrifield down to 2B/COF bench role. Allan Winans and his projected 100 ERA+ will supplant Alex Faedo (94 ERA+) as the Padres 4/5 SP until Alex Cobb comes off a season starting IL designation. While I slipped out the top 100 I did increase my total draft picks to 5 which has also been a target of mine.

[Padres]

Mariners trade Geraldo Perdomo, Luis V. Garcia to Padres for Mark Vientos

JT's Mariners have an immense amount of talent stockpiled at the SS/MI slot(s) ... and he needed a right handed corner infielder to replace Donaldson. He received a solid replacement in the young Mark Vientos (projected 105 OPS+, AV @ 3B) with a bit of pop in his bat. Walker and Machado blocked him on my team so he was going to be a bench bat for me in 2024.

Likewise it was not probable that either MI I received would start for the Mariners but there are both solid additions to the IBC Padres. My currently slotted 2B, Alvarez, is old and likely a one year SIM phenom. Luis Garcia (projected .266/.305/.411, 14 HR, 99 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)) does provide potential future protection - particularly if he continues to develop his power. He is also a left handed batter and helps balance my lineup. Geraldo Perdomo, with his strong OBP production (projected .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)), provides me some protection at SS against Arroyo receiving a lackluster ZiPs projection this season - though if they are relatively equal offensively I suspect Arroyo's D may make him my starting SS and shift Perdomo to a valued UT IF slot which is where he will probably be in real life once Lawlar is promoted.

The first trade of 2024 in the IBC is in the books and I believe it truly benefits both teams which is the kind of trade I truly like to do.

[Padres]

Guardians trade Brock Burke, 2023 Draft Pick 47, Dylan 22-Tebrake to Padres for Adam 0-Macko, 2023 Draft Pick 35

Pat moves up 12 slots in the 2nd round of a deep draft and gets an interesting lefty pitcher who brings the heat (and is a Blue Jay which forms the nucleus of the IBC Guardians good bullpen). Eric & Tess at Fangraphs peg Macko as a MIRP writing, "we think he’s going to be a valuable weapon on a pitching staff even if he ends up as a long reliever." while rating him as Toronto's #7 prospect. Most other publications still view him as a viable SP.

I slide down 12 slots in the 2nd round of the draft but add some younger depth to my bullpen which I normally can beef up during the ZiPs bidding process but this year it seems there are fewer opportunities to do so ... Brock Burke, a 27 year young lefty, received a projected 109 ERA+ in 2023 and I am hopeful he is the same general area when his 2024 ZiPs is released as he produced a 5-3 record, maintaining a 4.37 ERA, a 1.223 WHIP, and notably led the real life Rangers with a 5.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 53 games in 2023. Dylan TeBrake, a 22-draftee, received a nice 4.02, 44/21 K/BB (40.3 IP) 110 ERA+ and he or Jordan Leasure will pair with Adam Ottavino as my RHSU. 24 year old TeBrake hails from St. Cloud, Minnesota which is also the home of Pantown Brewing - an awesome brewery my daughter, Sarah, and I spent an enjoyable evening at on our to Alaska last April.

[Padres]

Cardinals trade Isaac 22-Coffey to Padres for Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha has pitched pretty well in real life the last two seasons and I believe he will be a stable SP for the real life Royals in 2024. I thought he'd get around 100 ERA+ projection from Dan Sz and his ZiPs computers so I was mildly disappointed when his 2024 projection came out at 4.15 ERA, 106/36 K/BB (119.3 IP), 97 ERA+. He was probably slotting in as my #5 to #7 SP depending on the opening season health of some of my admittedly older rotation so he was "tradable" when JP approached me inquiring about SP availability. We discussed a few RP options as that remains a need of this year's Padres squad but then I asked about a young SP he has and we had a deal. I hope the 32 year old Wacha enjoys good health and a good year but I was happy to get a new guy I have seen pitch in Portland.

Isaac Coffey pitched at Oral Roberts and then was selected in the 10th round by the real life Red Sox. He is a SP now but may end up as a RP because of his pitching style and lack of real velocity. Coffey amassed a fantastic 155 strikeouts over his 117.2 innings of work between stints at A+ and AA, easily earning his promotion to Portland. As I said, he doesn't light up the radar gun, but his pitch variety includes a sinker ranging from the high 80s to low 90s, a slider that fooled just about everyone with its sidearm release, a 12-6 curveball, and a new changeup. It is my hope that the 24 RHP will remain on the Padres draftee roster in 2024 but he did receive a 4.61, 94/33 (109.3), 96 ERA+ ZiPs projection and could get slotted into the rotation if health concerns dictate it.

[Padres]

Twins trade Patrick Wisdom, Devin Williams, Kyle Schwarber to Padres for Manny Machado

Jason inquired about the availability of Manny and I responded in a fairly detailed response that it could happen but only if my team gained significantly in another area or two. Machado is very good and his projection of .269/.335/.469, 26 HR, 125 OPS+ (5 @ 3B) reflects this. He is also young enough at 31 that he will be a factor for a while. His combination of offense and defense represents a giant step forward at 3B for Jason over Brian Anderson and/or Patrick Wisdom. And Jason could afford to move Williams and still maintain a world class CL as he still has Josh Hader and his projected 130 ERA+.

Devin Williams is a 29 year young stud with an awesome projection of 3.00 ERA, 83/26 K/BB (55.3 IP) and 145 ERA+. He solidifies the CL slot allowing me to move Burke and his projected 119 ERA+ back into a LHSU slot. Undoubtedly my bullpen is much improved. Kyle Schwarber replaces Olivares as the Padres primary DH allowing Olivares and his projected 114 OPS+ to function as the team's 4th OF. In real life for his career, Schwarber has 246 home runs over nine years, averaging 41 over 162 games. In his last two years as a Philadelphia Phillie, he had 46 home runs in 2022 and 47 in 2023. Dan Sz projected him at .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 123 OPS+ and -12 @ LF. I promise he will not don an outfielder's glove once as an IBC Padre. That combination of power and OBP nicely upgrades my DH and moving Olivares upgrades my OF and bench. This also adds a 3rd LH bat to my starting line-up as Schwarber joins Kiermaer and Suwinski ... The "bad news" is a downgrade at 3B. 3B/1B/DH Patrick Wisdom will likely just play 3B for the 2024 IBC Padres. In real life his 23 home runs in 97 games equated to roughly a 38-homer pace in 162 games. He has consistently displayed some serious power with the real life Cubs going back to 2021, hitting 76 home runs with a .772 OPS and 107 OPS+ in 337 games. In each of his past three seasons, he eclipsed the 20-homer mark. With that said, the low average (.214) and OBP (.298) coupled with a high strikeout rate (37%) in his MLB career makes him an "all or nothing" player. Not to mention defensive regression at the hot corner, where he was very efficient in 2021 but dipped to a -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) defender at third in 2023. ZiPs projects him at .214/.300/.455 , 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B) in only 391 PA. He will likely bat 8th and be replaced for defensive by Nick Sogard who rates a 4 @ 3B. He may only get 391 PA with the IBC Padres.

Guess this means I am in a "win now" mood. Can I overcome my pitching? This trade does weaken my overall defense but does garner me a much stronger bullpen and, I believe, more better balanced O. We'll see ...

[Padres]

Yankees trade Josh Sborz to Padres for Gavin 22-Cross

Gavin 22-Cross was, in real life, a first round pick of the KC Royals after a very successful college career at Virginia Tech. All the scouting reports indicated the LH hitting Cross had a good shot at being a player with an above-average hit and power combo and to stick in center field. The IBC White Sox took him in the first round; the IBC Padres drafted him in the recent mini-draft. In real life, he struggled last season posting a sub-.700 OPS for the A+ Quad Cities as both his contact rate and power played below-average. Cross' high-end game power is still there and he still walked at a decent clip. He is a prime bounce-back candidate that BP ranks as the Royals #3 and BA as the Royals #9 prospect. ZiPs projects him at .215/.284/.372, 10 HR, 11 SB, 80 OPS+ (-1 @ CF) though I doubt he will play much, if at all, for Z's Yankees in 2024.

Josh Sborz is a 30 year old RH RP who had a better post season then regular season for the real life Rangers as he clinched the final outs in their World Series victory. A 5.50 ERA in the regular season turned into a 0.75 ERA in the postseason. He battled injuries in 2023 yet Dan Sz and his ZiPs computers gave him a healthy projection of 3.99 ERA, 66/22 K/BB (56.3 IP) and a 110 ERA+. Maybe a one year SIM wonder but I'll take it for the 2024 IBC Padres as he'll team up with Ottavino's 111 ERA+, Tebrake's 110 ERA+ and whatever we see next week for Leasure's projection as the RHSU in the Padres suddenly much stronger bull pen. I have Jacob 22-Melton and Jacob 22-Burke also on the roster as CF so I feel comfortable giving up for some potential, particularly in CF, for more immediate bullpen reinforcements.

[Padres]

Rays trade Braxton Garrett, 2023 Draft Pick 72 to Padres for Edwin 21-Arroyo, Jordan 21-Wicks, 2023 Draft Pick 47

Kinda' feeling like Dave Dombrowski ...

Jordan Wicks is a good 24 year young LH SP ... BP sees him as #94 in their top 100 and #8 on the Cubs while BA ranks him as the Cubs #6. I think he will be good and was disappointed when Dan Sz and his computers only projected him with a 4.40 ERA, 94/39 K/BB (110.3 IP) and a 94 ERA+ for the upcoming IBC season. Likewise, Edwin Arroyo is also young (20) and is a well regarded switch hitting SS whom BA ranks #4 for the Reds and BP sees him as #6 among the Reds very talented prospects. He is supposed to be best defensive weapon among the many real life Reds MI players and prospects so I was surprised when ZiPs only gave him a -1 @ SS to go along with a .232/.285/.380, 13 HR, 16 SB, 76 OPS+ projection for the 2024 IBC season. Both of these guys figure to have solid careers eventually.

Braxton Garrett is a 27 year young LH SP and an immediate upgrade to the IBC Padres rotation. He actually began real life 2023 as a RP who got moved into the rotation due to injuries. But he was solid. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect. It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. ZiPs projects him at 4.02, 125/39 (136.7) 105 ERA+.

Garrett is an immediate upgrade over over Wicks and Garrett is also one of my youngest SP (Verlander, Morton, Cobb) in the IBC Padres 2024 rotation. Matt has really nice depth at SP so he can give up a 105 ERA+ and not get hurt while picking up a couple of solid prospects and moving up in the draft. Given my recent pick-up of Perdomo, Arroyo is expendable. I do slide out of the second and into the third round of the upcoming deep draft, but sometimes "going all in" has a cost ...

[Padres]

Rays trade Keiner 21-Delgado, Richard 21-Fitts to Padres for Edward Olivares

Edward Olivares was orginally going to be the Padres primary DH until I received Schwarber. He can play all three OF positions and received a solid .277/.333/.450, 13 HR, 10 SB, 114 OPS+ (-1 @ LF) ZiPs projection this season. Matt was looking to strengthen his bench. This season, I want my bench OFs to be defensive replacements when necessary so Olivares became expendable.

This trade is really more forward thinking then 2024-oriented for the IBC Padres. Richard Fitts was the biggest get-back for the real life Red Sox in their recent deal with the Yankees. He was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2023. The 24-year-old RH SP went 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 27 starts (152 ⅔ innings) for Double-A Somerset in 2023. He averaged 9.6 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He held opponents to a .227 batting average. Fitts throws his fastball (95 plus), a four-seamer, with vertical motion. He also throws a slider and changeup. He will be a major league pitcher though I am not sure if he will end as a SP or RP ... A really fun read about him can be found here: https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/12/ ... ex-verdugo ... He should receive a 2024 ZiPs projection when the ZiPs spreadsheet comes out. Keiner Delgado slashed .293/.414/.485 with eight home runs, 36 steals on 43 attempts and more walks (36) than strikeouts (31) across 49 games in the Florida Complex League. Listed at 5-foot-7, 145 pounds, Delgado gets the most out of his physical abilities and gets high marks for his makeup. The 19-year-old switch hitter fits best long term at second base and is at least an above-average runner. Fangraphs recently ranked as NYY #22. Adding him will allow me to release a couple of under-performing real life White Sox prospects and replace them with a more bonafide prospect.

[Padres]

Guardians trade Christian Yelich, Kyle Tucker, Erik Swanson, Shane Bieber to Padres for Devin Williams, Fernando Tatis, Jack Suwinski, 2023 Draft Pick 72

Pat got the best player in this deal ... no doubt about it. Tatis is young, plays awesome defense in RF, can hit for average and power with a good deal of speed as well. Suwinski has received a very good projection and he too is young with a very good power/speed profile. Neither of these players have probably reached their peak yet. Pat definitely improved his bullpen getting Williams and his rotation is deep enough that he could a solid SP who is not his ace. Finally he picked an early 3rd round pick in what will be a deep draft.

Kyle Tucker is not a big drop off in RF. In real life he is 30 HR, 30 SB guy who plays decent defense. I plan to bat him 1st or 2nd in my line-up so he will get lots of PA and I think he will surpass his projection of .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF). Christian Yelich is a post-peak player who still produces and he doesn't have as severe platoon splits as Suwinski has. I expect he will play better defense in LF though his arm strength is not as good ... he still received a solid projection of .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF). Erik Swanson and Williams are about the same age and Swanson becomes my new CL - admittedly a step back from Williams but he should do fine with his projection of 3.60 ERA, 68/19 K/BB (60.0 IP) with a 120 ERA+. The big get for me is Shane Bieber who instantly becomes the ace of the IBC Padres rotation. He is still relatively young and though he is not as dominant as his 2020 CY Young year he got a very good projection of 3.52, 151/37 (148.3), 119 ERA+. Unless someone drafts him before my #5 pick I intend to select Shota Imanaga and my rotation will look like this:

SP - Shane Bieber 3.52 ERA, 151/37 K/BB (148.3 IP), 119 ERA+
... Shota Imanaga 3.55, 146/40 (137.0), 117 ERA+
... Justin Verlander 3.85, 119/46 (147.3), 106 ERA+
... Charlie Morton 4.09, 166/64 (149.7), 106 ERA+
... Braxton Garrett* 4.02, 125/39 (136.7) 105 ERA+
... Alex Cobb 3.84, 121/45 (136.0), 106 ERA+ - initially on IL/hip labrum surgery
... Allan Winans 4.34, 100/35 (120.3) 100 ERA+

The pen will be solid:

CL - Erik Swanson 3.60, 68/19 (60.0), 120 ERA+
RHSU - Adam Ottavino 3.98, 55/25 (52.0) 111 ERA+
... Josh Sborz 3.99 ERA, 66/22 K/BB (56.3 IP), 110 ERA+
LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.69, 65/19 (68.3), 119 ERA+
... Jake Diekman* 4.13, 57/32 (48.0) 102 ERA+
MU/LR - Miguel Diaz 4.08, 64/27 (68.3), 104 ERA+

And the starting line-up will be along these lines:

versus RH SP:

RF - Kyle Tucker* .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF)
2B - Eddy Alvarez .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 128 OPS+ (-12 @ LF)
1B - Christian Walker .253/335/447, 22 HR, 114 OPS+ (7 @ 1B)
LF - Christain Yelich* .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF)
.C - JT Realmuto .254/.320/.440, 19 HR, 13 SB, 107 OPS+ (2 @ C)
CF - Kevin Kiermaer* .245/.306/.377, 10 SB, 90 OPS+ (11 @ CF)
3B - Patrick Wisdom .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B)
SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)

versus LH SP:

RF - Kyle Tucker* .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF)
2B - Eddy Alvarez .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)
LF - Christain Yelich* .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF)
1B - Christian Walker .253/335/447, 22 HR, 114 OPS+ (7 @ 1B)
.C - JT Realmuto .254/.320/.440, 19 HR, 13 SB, 107 OPS+ (2 @ C)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 128 OPS+ (-12 @ LF)
CF - Kevin Kiermaer* .245/.306/.377, 10 SB, 90 OPS+ (11 @ CF)
3B - Patrick Wisdom .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B)
SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)

Probably done trading ... and ready to see if the Padres are a 2024 IBC playoff team ...

[Padres]

Phillies trade 2023 Draft Pick 123 to Padres for Nolan 22-Perry

I created & signed Nolan Perry [BA TOR #26] after reading he is "a projectable righthander with excellent feel for his breaking ball and in-game production that’s yet to match his ability. Perry mixes a four-seam fastball at 92-94 mph with around 17-18 inches of induced vertical break and 11 inches of run, with a slider at 82-84 mph with moderate sweep, a low-80s curveball with two-plane depth and a changeup. He has a projectable frame with a starter’s pitch mix." Nick responded, "That's my sons name! lol Crazy I didn't know about him" and "You kinda have to trade him to me now lol". After signing Fernando Perez [BA TOR #24] who led Toronto’s FCL team in innings and posted a stellar 29% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate I was able to trade Perry to Perry.

In return I received pick 123 which gets the Padres back to 5 selections in the upcoming draft!

[Padres]

Rockies traded 2023 Draft Pick 97 to Padres for Cristian 0-Mena

Mena is young and shows a lot of promise (he reached AAA when he was only 20) and I think he will become a major league starting pitcher. He was the 12th SP om my depth chart for this season but might have been somewhere between 4th to 6th in another year or two so I think Nate got some good future value.

I had three players I coveted when I first posted Mena as a potential trade target for a pick. Two were selected but RHP Teddy Sharkey was still available so I was happy to select him with pick #97. He should move through the system quickly as he was a dominant college reliever at Coastal Carolina before getting drafted. He has a riding mid-90s fastball and a pair of potential bat-missing breaking balls that grade well analytically, and struck out 16 of the 37 batters he faced with a 0.70 WHIP in his pro debut. I am confident he will develop into an important part of the IBC Padres bull pen - perhaps as soon as next season.

[Padres]

Yankees traded Jose Miranda, Aaron Ashby, Denzel 21-Clarke, Ryan 22-Clifford to Padres for Patrick Wisdom, Shane Bieber

For me, this is somewhat of a "pivot" trade driven by an onslaught of injuries coupled with my desire to have a productive competitive team in the IBC in 2024. For Z, it was all about securing a hopeful certain ace to front his Yankee staff.

Shane Bieber has a really nice projection with a 3.52 ERA, 151/37 K/BB (148.3 IP) and 119 ERA+ and in real life he had two solid starts striking out 20 in 12 IP before succumbing to TJ. Z will get 2 solid starts out of him in the IBC this year and then wait for all of this season and probably part of next before getingt back a really good SP who will only be 30 - and we have seen many pitchers successfully return from TJ. Patrick Wisdom, projected at .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B) is masher who in real life has hit at least 23 HR the past 4 seasons. He starts this IBC season on the DL but in real life is hitting well during his rehab at AAA and I expect Cubs manager Counsell with utilize him well in a platoon 3B/DH/1B right power bat off the bench.

Aaron Ashby is a relatively young southpaw SP who missed all of last year with a shoulder injury. Before that Ashby had a 25.2% strikeout rate and 55.9% groundball rate. Since he broke into the league, league average was 22% and 42.6%, respectively. He does a lot of things well, but racking up strikeouts and putting the ball on the ground are above the rest. Good enough that the real life Brewers locked him up for 5 years. With his 4.08, 100/43 (88.3), 107 ERA+ projection he will slot in behind Shota Imanaga as my number 2 SP while the Padres await the return of Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Braxton Garrett. Jose Miranda immediately takes over at 3B and while his .272/.325/.413, 13 HR, 105 OPS+ (-2 @ 3B) projection portends less power, it should also produce less Ks and less need for a defensive replacement - and he is healthy. The last two players are shots at the future ... well regarded OF prospects. Of the two I like Denzel Clarke better as his power/speed combo and athleticism should play well and he may well become Kevin Kiermaer's eventual replacement in CF for the Padres. His projection of .197/.286/.351, 82 OPS+ (3 @ CF) indicates he probably won't play in the IBC at all this year. Ryan 22-Clifford, a very young lefty swinging 1B/COF/DH, is rife with power and if he can develop more pull tendencies could turn into a real masher against RHP. His projection of .202/.296/.345, 16 HR, 75 OPS+ (-6 @ 1B) makes him unlikely to move off the Padres draftee roster this season.