From the BA Atlanta Braves 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
6. David McCabe
3B
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 230 | B-T: S-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 45 Risk: High
Track Record: McCabe played high school ball outside Toronto then shined in three years at UNC Charlotte, hitting 30 home runs combined in his final two collegiate seasons. He ranked as the No. 315 prospect in the 2022 draft class, but he stood out for his excellent hitting ability, raw power and approach at the plate. The Braves signed him for $476,400 in the fourth round and in his first full season in 2023 he looked like one of the most well-rounded hitters in Atlanta’s system. His 133 wRC+ trailed only Vaughn Grissom among Braves minor leaguers who batted at least 400 times, and he also hit 17 home runs and 23 doubles.
Scouting Report: McCabe has a large, physical frame with plus raw power from the left side and a great eye at the plate. His 15.3% walk rate was the highest of any player in the system with at least 500 plate appearances, and he consistently put together competitive at-bats and chased at just a 17.7% rate—one of the lowest marks in the system. A switch-hitter, McCabe is better from the left side of the plate and 16 of his 17 home runs came from the left side, in addition to 20 of his 23 doubles. He has an open setup at the plate and takes a sizable leg kick to get started before swinging in an uphill path. There are some questions about his ability to handle fastballs thrown 93 mph or faster, but his on-base skills and power could make him a productive offensive player even as a below-average pure hitter. McCabe is a below-average defender at third base and will need to move to either first base or a corner-outfield spot. He has below-average range and actions, and despite 10 stolen bases is heavy-footed and a well below-average runner. He has above-average arm strength.
The Future: McCabe was old for both levels in 2023, so he should be challenged at Double-A in 2024.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Speed: 30 | Fielding: 40 | Arm: 55.
From the BA Miami Marlins 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
7. Yiddi Cappe
2B
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 175 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: Cappe was one of the more highly touted prospects in the 2021 international signing period and signed with Miami for $3 million when he was 18 years old. Cappe’s first pro experience came in the Dominican Summer League that year. The lanky shortstop showed well, hitting .270 with 20 extra-base hits. After a productive 2022 campaign that was split between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Jupiter, Cappe spent the entire 2023 season at High-A Beloit. He hit just .220 but laced 26 doubles and swiped 19 bases while making three quarters of his starts at second base.
Scouting Report: Cappe has a tall, upright stance with a low handset and a loose operation. He has a slight load with his hands, a high leg kick and some present bat speed. Much of his damage and power is to the pull side, but given his physical projection and the likelihood of his frame to fill out, there is more impact on the way. Cappe struck out nearly 20% in 2023 and his approach will need refining as his overall chase rate was 38%. He particularly struggles against spin, which is the root of most of his swing-and-miss. However, he was just 20 years old in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Midwest League and has a track record of showing an advanced hit tool. Cappe has a chance to grow into at least average power, a tool he can supplement with a potentially above-average hit tool. He is an average runner and a bit clunky defensively, and his future home could be in the outfield.
The Future: Cappe will have a chance to progress to Double-A Pensacola by the end of the 2024 season. Once his positional future is solidified, he has the potential to be an impact bat as an everyday member of a big league lineup.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Speed: 40 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 50.
From the BA Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
10. Gabriel Rincones
OF
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 225 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 45/High.
Track Record: Rincones started his collegiate career with two years at St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC before transferring to Florida Atlantic for his junior season. In his lone season with the Owls, Rincones produced 19 home runs in 58 games. He returned to FAU for his senior year, but a tear in his right shoulder kept him off the field the entire season. Nonetheless, the Phillies selected him in the third round in 2022. He made his pro debut in 2023 and hit 15 home runs in a season spent primarily at High-A Jersey Shore.
Scouting Report: Rincones—the son of a former Mariners minor leaguer by the same name—has a game based around big-time power. His combination of size and strength produced high-end exit velocities, including a 90th-percentile mark of 106.3 mph that was well above-average compared to his peers in Class A. To become a more complete hitter, he’ll have to do better against same-side pitching. In his first pro test, Rincones hit .209 with a .665 OPS against southpaws. Unless he closes that hole, he projects as no more than a below-average hitter. Rincones moved between both corner outfield spots and DH, with the majority of his defensive time coming in right field. He’s likely never going to be better than a below-average outfield defender, and scouts speculate he could get some exposure to first base. His plus arm plays well in right field, but his well below-average speed could lead to moves elsewhere. If he continues to show power at the upper levels, his bat will play on a corner.
The Future: In 2024, Rincones will move to Double-A Reading, an extremely hitter-friendly environment that should allow for an strong season at the plate. At peak, he could be a classic corner outfield masher whose booming bat makes up for defensive shortcomings.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 55 | Speed: 30 | Fielding: 40 | Arm: 60.
From the BA Washington Nationals 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
2. James Wood
OF
Ht: 6'6" | Wt: 240 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 65/High.
Track Record: Wood’s large stature made him easy to spot on the summer circuit, but that physicality made him one of the most impressive players in the 2021 draft class. The Padres selected him 62nd overall in the second round and went over slot to sign him for $2.6 million. Wood got off to a hot start in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League in 2021 and continued the success during his first full season with Low-A Lake Elsinore. The Nationals acquired Wood, along with four other young talents, at the 2022 trade deadline in a blockbuster trade for Juan Soto. In 2023, Wood split time between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg, where he continued to showcase his power with 26 home runs. He earned a Futures Game nod before finishing strong with an .881 OPS and 10 homers in August and September.
Scouting Report: There is no doubting Wood’s plus-plus raw power. He crushes the ball to all fields and does a good job resisting pitches off the plate. Power hitters tend to have higher strikeout rates, which is the case with Wood at nearly 32%. He has more difficulty seeing spin well and will need to adjust. Wood adjusted his batting stance to keep his arms closer to his body to have a shorter swing he can manipulate better. He has a chance to stick in center field and is an above-average runner, but he will likely move to a corner as his body matures. His above-average arm will play there. Wood has above-average speed and was successful on 18 of 21 stolen base attempts in 2023.
The Future: Wood will add a massive power bat to the Nationals’ lineup for many years to come. If he can lower his strikeout rate, he has the upside to hit 30-35 home runs. Nationals fans should start getting looks at Wood in Washington in 2024.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Speed: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55.
From the BA Cincinnati Reds 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
7. Sal Stewart
3B
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.
Track Record: Stewart is an alum of the same Westminster Christian School program that produced 1993 No. 1 overall pick Alex Rodriguez as well as long-time big leaguers J.P. Arencibia and Doug Mientkiewicz. Stewart stood out in high school for his ability to make hard contact without swinging and missing. As a senior, he hit .514 with more home runs (nine) than strikeouts (six). After sharing time with Cam Collier at third base at Low-A Daytona, Stewart earned a promotion to High-A Dayton in early August. In his final 50 Florida State League games before his promotion, Stewart hit .307/.421/.542 with nine home runs and more walks (35) than strikeouts (34).
Scouting Report: Stewart is a baseball rat with a savvy understanding of the game. He is a pure hitter but one who is big enough and strong enough to get to average power, especially in the friendly environs of Great American Ballpark. He has an up-the-middle hitting approach, and 10 of his 12 home runs were hit to center field or the power alleys. He’s more adept than most teenagers at recognizing and hitting breaking pitches. The pleasant surprise for the Reds was Stewart’s athleticism. In high school, the general belief was Stewart’s body was headed in the wrong direction and that first base would be his ultimate position. He’s worked on his conditioning, and he showed average body control, feet and hands at third base, though he has a tendency to lay back on grounders he should attack. His arm is average.
The Future: Stewart’s bat has largely been as advertised. He’s a polished hitter who strings together professional at-bats. His fielding has proven better than expected, which gives him at least a shot to stick at third base. Both Stewart and Collier picked up the pace offensively once they didn’t have to share third base, but that job-share could return at High-A Dayton in 2024.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50. Field: 45. Run: 40 | Arm: 50.
9. Alfredo Duno
C
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 210 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 55/Extreme.
Track Record: Venezuela’s Ethan Salas was viewed as the top catcher in the 2023 international class, a status he quickly reinforced with an exceptional pro debut for the Padres that saw him reach Double-A as a 17-year-old. Duno, also a Venezuelan, was the second-best catching prospect in the class. Duno is on a more traditional timetable, but he also has a shot to be a long-term major league regular. Duno told the Reds his arm felt sore in the work up to the start of the Dominican Summer League season. Exams found no structural damage, but when the soreness remained, the Reds decided to have him DH exclusively while participating in all catcher’s drills except for throwing.
Scouting Report: Duno is an excellent athlete for an already filled-out teenage catcher with a 6-foot-2, 210-pound frame. He’s a fringe-average runner for now and swiped six bags in six attempts in the DSL, though catching will likely sap that speed eventually. Offensively, Duno’s combination of excellent bat speed, plus raw power and solid swing decisions gives him a chance to develop into a 20-plus home run hitter with an average hit tool. His bat should play at multiple positions, but he has the mindset and tools to stick behind the plate. Defensively, Duno has the tools to be at least an above-average receiver and blocker with soft hands. While his arm soreness kept the Reds from seeing it in 2023, he’s shown a plus to plus-plus arm in the past.
The Future: Duno should get to go back behind the plate in 2024, as he heads to the U.S. to play in the Arizona Complex League. He’s the Reds’ best young catching prospect since the organization drafted Tyler Stephenson in 2015.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60. Field: 55. Run: 40 | Arm: 60.
10. Cam Collier
3B
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: The son of eight-year MLB veteran Lou Collier, Cam followed the same path as Bryce Harper by graduating from high school after his sophomore year, then enrolling at a junior college. That made Collier draft eligible after what would have been his high school junior season. The Reds drafted him 18th overall in 2022 out of Florida juco power Chipola and signed him for $5 million, or 37% over slot. Collier played the entire 2023 season as an 18-year-old, making him one of the younger players in full-season ball.
Scouting Report: Collier is a relatively mature hitter, despite his youth. He’s a potential above-average hitter who has excellent barrel control and makes solid swing decisions. Pitchers rarely fool Collier, and he makes plenty of contact. When he connects, he hits the ball hard. But he hit just .246 with six home runs in 111 games in the Florida State League. The issue for Collier is that he doesn’t have a swing that allows him to consistently do damage. Collier hits a lot of pulled ground balls, but he’ll need to learn to lift the ball more consistently to get to his above-average power potential. His long-term potential depends a lot on him maintaining his already declining athleticism. He’s already slow-footed. Collier lacks lateral range and has poor footwork, which leaves scouts skeptical that he’ll be able to stay at third base. He has a strong and accurate arm that grades as plus. He’s a below-average runner who is slowing.
The Future: Collier’s upside remains as lofty as it was when he was drafted, but there are reasons to worry. If he maintains or improves his athleticism and develops his power, he’s a potential everyday third baseman. But if he can’t, his bat will be stretched as a first basemen with no other defensive options. He should head to High-A Dayton for most of 2024.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55. Field: 40. Run: 40 | Arm: 65.
Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
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Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
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Re: Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
From BP's 2024 Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects:
4. Heston Kjerstad
Pos: RF
Born: 1999-02-12
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 205 lbs.
History: Drafted second overall in the 2020 draft, University of Arkansas; signed for $5.2 million.
Previous Rank: #9 (org)
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2023
The Report: It was good just to see Kjerstad back on the field in 2022, after he missed about two years with myocarditis. In 2023 he re-established himself as a top prospect hitting .300 with power in the upper minors. Another big corner bat looking to elevate and celebrate, Kjerstad doesn’t have Mayo’s bat speed, but he might be even stronger, using his massive forearms and wrists to brute force pitches into the right field bleachers. While the swing is a bit stiff and the approach over-expansive, Kjerstad does not miss much in the zone given the kind of power he can generate. If he’s able to rein in his free-swinging tendencies, there are some high-end offensive outcomes possible, but in the short term I’d expect major-league arms to exploit his penchant to go fishing—especially against soft stuff away. That’s been true to an extent already in the upper minors despite the gaudy top-line numbers. While his aggressiveness outside the zone hasn’t resulted in particularly concerning strikeout rates, his average exit velocity and fly ball rate are both a fair bit off Mayo’s despite similar high-end power potential. He’s a riskier bat overall, but perhaps one with more upside if it all clicks with more high-level game action.
Like Mayo, Kjerstad is going to have limited defensive value. He’s moved about between corner outfield, first base, and DH, and should be fine enough at any of those spots. His first base defense particularly remains a work in progress as he catches and scoops throws all right, but his hands are a bit rough when something is actually hit to him.
OFP: 60 / Perennial 30-home-run corner bat
Variance: High. Kjerstad’s approach remains a bit aggressive compared to his power-hitting peers in this system, and the production may end up looking more like Ryan Mountcastle than Gunnar Henderson.
9. Joey Ortiz
Pos: MI
Born: 1998-07-14
B: Right
T: Right
H: 5′ 9″
W: 190 lbs.
History: Drafted in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, New Mexico State University; signed for $450,000.
Previous Rank: #14 (org)
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2023
The Report: While GM of the Astros, Jeff Luhnow famously declared the organization “a victim of our own success” when he released J.D. Martinez. Now to be more accurate, Martinez was the victim here, finding himself out of work (although it worked out fine for him in the end). Joey Ortiz finds himself—unironically—in a similar spot almost a decade later stuck pretty far down on the depth chart despite being a pretty good infield prospect. Ortiz spent another season raking in the upper minors, but scuffled in intermittent playing time during his brief cup of coffee.
Ortiz has plus hand-eye and bat-to-ball skills despite a swing with a lot of moving parts. He works from open to closed with a pretty big leg kick, and his hands move in and back to create some hand-hip separation, it’s not a big power hitter’s hack, but he hits the ball hard and elevates enough that something in the range of fringe power should go with a potential plus hit tool. Ortiz is an above-average shortstop despite his stocky physique, and he has a fair bit of experience at second and third as well—a side effect of often sharing an infield with the Jordan Westburgs and Gunnar Hendersons of the world. While he chases a bit too much to be an impact bat, the solid skills on both offense and defense make him a high-probability major leaguer of some sort.
OFP: 55 / Above-average shortstop, probably not for the Orioles
Variance: Medium. Ortiz is in a bit of a weird spot where he needs a team that will give him 150 games to see what they have in the bat, as it’s still unclear if his exuberance for swinging at balls will cause him long-term problems against major-league pitching.
From BP's 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Top Prospects:
4. Yu-Min Lin
Pos: P
Born: 2003-07-12
B: Left
T: Left
H: 5′ 11″
W: 160 lbs.
History: Signed in December 2021 out of Taiwan for $600,000.
Previous Rank: #13 (org)
Major League ETA: Late 2024/Early 2025
The Report: A shorter, slighter southpaw signed out of Taiwan before the 2022 season. Lin looks the part of a soft-tossing lefty with a suite of average to a tick-above secondaries, a command and control, pitchability type. Looks are deceiving here though, as Lin’s fastball—pinned around 90 mph—is a bat misser. It has elite vertical action that can induce ground balls or miss bats entirely and is a plus pitch despite well-below-average velocity for 2023 baseball. Conversely his long arm action with a twisty, torquey delivery can lead to occasional bouts of wildness with the heater.
Lin’s breaking balls are both advanced pitches with above-average potential. The curve is more likely to get there, showing bigger depth and more overall break than his sweepy, 1-7 slider. His changeup is his best present offspeed option though, featuring above-average fade and feel. Lin is the kind of pitcher who should dominate the lower minors given his fastball movement and three secondaries he can spot or run out of the zone, so we were a bit conservative with his preseason ranking. And he did hit a bit of a bump in Double-A—Amarillo is not a fun place to pitch—but continued to show that his stuff will miss bats. Command wobbles and lack of a true 40%+ whiff secondary he can lean on might limit his ceiling to mid-rotation, but if the change and fastball both play as plus up the ladder, he could outperform this perhaps still-conservative ranking.
OFP: 55 / no. 3/4 starter
Variance: Medium. It’s received wisdom at this point both on the scouting and analytics side that fastball velocity isn’t everything, but Lin’s heater does dip into the 80s at times, making for finer margins than your usual Top 101 pitching prospect. The stuff is good enough regardless that a realistic downside outcome should leave him an effective, if frustrating back-end starter. After all, Chase Field isn’t a fun place to pitch either.
10. Manuel Pena
Pos: 2B
Born: 2003-12-05
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 1″
W: 170 lbs.
History: Signed January 2021 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.2 million.
Previous Rank: #20 (org)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Peña poses an interesting evaluation question: What does power projection mean in 2024? He hit five home runs in 109 games last season. He’s 19 years old and listed at 6-foot-1, 170 pounds. That looks to be within a shout of his present frame. He’ll get stronger in his 20s? Likely, but he’s not going to fill out in the traditional power/physical projection way. Peña already can hit the ball quite hard and often in the air—although too often straight up in the air. The culprit here is a short, choppy swing without the bat speed or physicality to consistently muscle fastballs over the right field fence. He is a bit too aggressive and the swing plane is more set up for line drives to left field instead. But then Peña will hit one well over 100 mph into the RCF gap or (very occasionally) over the fence.
Many years ago I did a weekend camp with Mark Baker, one of the best bowling coaches in the country. It had all the usual accoutrements—new equipment to try, video and statistical analysis—but the one thing that stuck with me was something he said at the very beginning. He had one of the better amateur bowlers in the group throw a few shots and made an observation. A top level league bowler will make three to five professional quality shots in a game. His goal is to get you one or two more. Like bowler development, baseball player development is a process of marginal gains over lots and lots of repetitions. If you get one more hard-hit pull side fly ball every 10 at-bats, it adds up over time and you are a 20-home run guy. That’s a cliche for Bull Durham 2 though, and not as simple in practice as it is written out. Peña has the high-end hard contact, but very little else in the offensive profile. But if you wanted to have one trait as a hitter, that’s not a bad one to have at 19. Is it likely he gets there? Well, if we thought so he’d be about five spots higher.
Defensively, Peña’s throwing is already limiting him to mostly second base and his hands, actions, and double play turn are all fine for the keystone. Not being able to play the more premium middle infield spot will put more pressure on him to find those extra hard hit-balls in the air though.
OFP: 50 / Average second baseman
Variance: Very High. Peña has the same high risk profile as Torin and Luis, but without the present above-average OFP.
From BP's 2024 Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects:
7. Cam Collier
Pos: 3B/DH
Born: 2004-11-20
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 210 lbs.
History: Drafted 18th overall in the 2022 draft, Chipola College; signed for $5 million.
Previous Rank: #3 (org), #49 (Top 101)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Happy birthday! Collier turns 19 the day this list is published, which means he played the entire 2023 season in Low-A at age-18. And he did pretty well, posting a roughly league-average line in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. His in-zone contact rate and average, 90th percentile, and max exit velocity readings were all very strong for his age level, and in all but one really important way he presents as a very advanced hitter for a prospect at his 19th birthday. His swing looks good to the naked eye, although his power projection isn’t getting into games yet because he’s not lifting the ball much. Defensively, he’s found a sound home for now at third base, where his arm plays up, but he could end up growing into a first baseman in his 20s.
Notably absent from any discussion of his strengths are his swing decisions, viewed as a significant strength given his age coming out of the draft. Simply put, they stunk in his full-season debut. Collier has the triple red flag of an elevated chase rate, a below par in-zone swing rate, and a very high ground ball rate. When combined together, this all suggests he’s having a very difficult time identifying and attacking the right pitches. So all the positives end up having a bit of a “how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” vibe until he gets his swing decisions and pitch recognition sorted—and all too frequently, corrections there significantly eat into the stuff he’s already good at.
OFP: 55 / Starting third baseman
Variance: High. If his swing decisions improve, his damage and contact profile could play up into prospect standing that looks much more like his old 1.1 draft hype. If he can’t sort it out, his stock will go from sliding to falling fast.
9. Sal Stewart
Pos: 3B/DH
Born: 2003-12-07
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 215 lbs.
History: Drafted 32nd overall in the 2022 draft, Westminster Christian School (Miami, FL); signed for $2.1 million.
Previous Rank: #8 (org)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Stewart continues to chug along. His touted bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions were verified in his first pro season; he ranked 5th of 147 tracked batters with over 100 plate appearances in the FSL by Robert Orr’s SEAGER swing decision metric and maintained above-average contact rates at both A-ball levels. He’s going to need to add physical strength to hit for more power than is currently present, as his present damage ability is fringe-average. Defensively, a year ago it looked like he was headed for first base, where this profile wouldn’t play at all, but he actually played a pretty solid third and even dabbled some at second.
OFP: 50 / Starting third baseman
Variance: Medium. We’re still hoping he adds more power; hit over power corner guy is a tough profile.
4. Heston Kjerstad
Pos: RF
Born: 1999-02-12
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 205 lbs.
History: Drafted second overall in the 2020 draft, University of Arkansas; signed for $5.2 million.
Previous Rank: #9 (org)
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2023
The Report: It was good just to see Kjerstad back on the field in 2022, after he missed about two years with myocarditis. In 2023 he re-established himself as a top prospect hitting .300 with power in the upper minors. Another big corner bat looking to elevate and celebrate, Kjerstad doesn’t have Mayo’s bat speed, but he might be even stronger, using his massive forearms and wrists to brute force pitches into the right field bleachers. While the swing is a bit stiff and the approach over-expansive, Kjerstad does not miss much in the zone given the kind of power he can generate. If he’s able to rein in his free-swinging tendencies, there are some high-end offensive outcomes possible, but in the short term I’d expect major-league arms to exploit his penchant to go fishing—especially against soft stuff away. That’s been true to an extent already in the upper minors despite the gaudy top-line numbers. While his aggressiveness outside the zone hasn’t resulted in particularly concerning strikeout rates, his average exit velocity and fly ball rate are both a fair bit off Mayo’s despite similar high-end power potential. He’s a riskier bat overall, but perhaps one with more upside if it all clicks with more high-level game action.
Like Mayo, Kjerstad is going to have limited defensive value. He’s moved about between corner outfield, first base, and DH, and should be fine enough at any of those spots. His first base defense particularly remains a work in progress as he catches and scoops throws all right, but his hands are a bit rough when something is actually hit to him.
OFP: 60 / Perennial 30-home-run corner bat
Variance: High. Kjerstad’s approach remains a bit aggressive compared to his power-hitting peers in this system, and the production may end up looking more like Ryan Mountcastle than Gunnar Henderson.
9. Joey Ortiz
Pos: MI
Born: 1998-07-14
B: Right
T: Right
H: 5′ 9″
W: 190 lbs.
History: Drafted in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, New Mexico State University; signed for $450,000.
Previous Rank: #14 (org)
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2023
The Report: While GM of the Astros, Jeff Luhnow famously declared the organization “a victim of our own success” when he released J.D. Martinez. Now to be more accurate, Martinez was the victim here, finding himself out of work (although it worked out fine for him in the end). Joey Ortiz finds himself—unironically—in a similar spot almost a decade later stuck pretty far down on the depth chart despite being a pretty good infield prospect. Ortiz spent another season raking in the upper minors, but scuffled in intermittent playing time during his brief cup of coffee.
Ortiz has plus hand-eye and bat-to-ball skills despite a swing with a lot of moving parts. He works from open to closed with a pretty big leg kick, and his hands move in and back to create some hand-hip separation, it’s not a big power hitter’s hack, but he hits the ball hard and elevates enough that something in the range of fringe power should go with a potential plus hit tool. Ortiz is an above-average shortstop despite his stocky physique, and he has a fair bit of experience at second and third as well—a side effect of often sharing an infield with the Jordan Westburgs and Gunnar Hendersons of the world. While he chases a bit too much to be an impact bat, the solid skills on both offense and defense make him a high-probability major leaguer of some sort.
OFP: 55 / Above-average shortstop, probably not for the Orioles
Variance: Medium. Ortiz is in a bit of a weird spot where he needs a team that will give him 150 games to see what they have in the bat, as it’s still unclear if his exuberance for swinging at balls will cause him long-term problems against major-league pitching.
From BP's 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Top Prospects:
4. Yu-Min Lin
Pos: P
Born: 2003-07-12
B: Left
T: Left
H: 5′ 11″
W: 160 lbs.
History: Signed in December 2021 out of Taiwan for $600,000.
Previous Rank: #13 (org)
Major League ETA: Late 2024/Early 2025
The Report: A shorter, slighter southpaw signed out of Taiwan before the 2022 season. Lin looks the part of a soft-tossing lefty with a suite of average to a tick-above secondaries, a command and control, pitchability type. Looks are deceiving here though, as Lin’s fastball—pinned around 90 mph—is a bat misser. It has elite vertical action that can induce ground balls or miss bats entirely and is a plus pitch despite well-below-average velocity for 2023 baseball. Conversely his long arm action with a twisty, torquey delivery can lead to occasional bouts of wildness with the heater.
Lin’s breaking balls are both advanced pitches with above-average potential. The curve is more likely to get there, showing bigger depth and more overall break than his sweepy, 1-7 slider. His changeup is his best present offspeed option though, featuring above-average fade and feel. Lin is the kind of pitcher who should dominate the lower minors given his fastball movement and three secondaries he can spot or run out of the zone, so we were a bit conservative with his preseason ranking. And he did hit a bit of a bump in Double-A—Amarillo is not a fun place to pitch—but continued to show that his stuff will miss bats. Command wobbles and lack of a true 40%+ whiff secondary he can lean on might limit his ceiling to mid-rotation, but if the change and fastball both play as plus up the ladder, he could outperform this perhaps still-conservative ranking.
OFP: 55 / no. 3/4 starter
Variance: Medium. It’s received wisdom at this point both on the scouting and analytics side that fastball velocity isn’t everything, but Lin’s heater does dip into the 80s at times, making for finer margins than your usual Top 101 pitching prospect. The stuff is good enough regardless that a realistic downside outcome should leave him an effective, if frustrating back-end starter. After all, Chase Field isn’t a fun place to pitch either.
10. Manuel Pena
Pos: 2B
Born: 2003-12-05
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 1″
W: 170 lbs.
History: Signed January 2021 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.2 million.
Previous Rank: #20 (org)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Peña poses an interesting evaluation question: What does power projection mean in 2024? He hit five home runs in 109 games last season. He’s 19 years old and listed at 6-foot-1, 170 pounds. That looks to be within a shout of his present frame. He’ll get stronger in his 20s? Likely, but he’s not going to fill out in the traditional power/physical projection way. Peña already can hit the ball quite hard and often in the air—although too often straight up in the air. The culprit here is a short, choppy swing without the bat speed or physicality to consistently muscle fastballs over the right field fence. He is a bit too aggressive and the swing plane is more set up for line drives to left field instead. But then Peña will hit one well over 100 mph into the RCF gap or (very occasionally) over the fence.
Many years ago I did a weekend camp with Mark Baker, one of the best bowling coaches in the country. It had all the usual accoutrements—new equipment to try, video and statistical analysis—but the one thing that stuck with me was something he said at the very beginning. He had one of the better amateur bowlers in the group throw a few shots and made an observation. A top level league bowler will make three to five professional quality shots in a game. His goal is to get you one or two more. Like bowler development, baseball player development is a process of marginal gains over lots and lots of repetitions. If you get one more hard-hit pull side fly ball every 10 at-bats, it adds up over time and you are a 20-home run guy. That’s a cliche for Bull Durham 2 though, and not as simple in practice as it is written out. Peña has the high-end hard contact, but very little else in the offensive profile. But if you wanted to have one trait as a hitter, that’s not a bad one to have at 19. Is it likely he gets there? Well, if we thought so he’d be about five spots higher.
Defensively, Peña’s throwing is already limiting him to mostly second base and his hands, actions, and double play turn are all fine for the keystone. Not being able to play the more premium middle infield spot will put more pressure on him to find those extra hard hit-balls in the air though.
OFP: 50 / Average second baseman
Variance: Very High. Peña has the same high risk profile as Torin and Luis, but without the present above-average OFP.
From BP's 2024 Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects:
7. Cam Collier
Pos: 3B/DH
Born: 2004-11-20
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 210 lbs.
History: Drafted 18th overall in the 2022 draft, Chipola College; signed for $5 million.
Previous Rank: #3 (org), #49 (Top 101)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Happy birthday! Collier turns 19 the day this list is published, which means he played the entire 2023 season in Low-A at age-18. And he did pretty well, posting a roughly league-average line in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. His in-zone contact rate and average, 90th percentile, and max exit velocity readings were all very strong for his age level, and in all but one really important way he presents as a very advanced hitter for a prospect at his 19th birthday. His swing looks good to the naked eye, although his power projection isn’t getting into games yet because he’s not lifting the ball much. Defensively, he’s found a sound home for now at third base, where his arm plays up, but he could end up growing into a first baseman in his 20s.
Notably absent from any discussion of his strengths are his swing decisions, viewed as a significant strength given his age coming out of the draft. Simply put, they stunk in his full-season debut. Collier has the triple red flag of an elevated chase rate, a below par in-zone swing rate, and a very high ground ball rate. When combined together, this all suggests he’s having a very difficult time identifying and attacking the right pitches. So all the positives end up having a bit of a “how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” vibe until he gets his swing decisions and pitch recognition sorted—and all too frequently, corrections there significantly eat into the stuff he’s already good at.
OFP: 55 / Starting third baseman
Variance: High. If his swing decisions improve, his damage and contact profile could play up into prospect standing that looks much more like his old 1.1 draft hype. If he can’t sort it out, his stock will go from sliding to falling fast.
9. Sal Stewart
Pos: 3B/DH
Born: 2003-12-07
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 3″
W: 215 lbs.
History: Drafted 32nd overall in the 2022 draft, Westminster Christian School (Miami, FL); signed for $2.1 million.
Previous Rank: #8 (org)
Major League ETA: 2026
The Report: Stewart continues to chug along. His touted bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions were verified in his first pro season; he ranked 5th of 147 tracked batters with over 100 plate appearances in the FSL by Robert Orr’s SEAGER swing decision metric and maintained above-average contact rates at both A-ball levels. He’s going to need to add physical strength to hit for more power than is currently present, as his present damage ability is fringe-average. Defensively, a year ago it looked like he was headed for first base, where this profile wouldn’t play at all, but he actually played a pretty solid third and even dabbled some at second.
OFP: 50 / Starting third baseman
Variance: Medium. We’re still hoping he adds more power; hit over power corner guy is a tough profile.
2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
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Re: Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
From the BA Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 Top 10 Prospects
7. Yu-Min Lin
LHP
Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 160 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: The D-backs watched Lin carve through hitters several years older than him at an international tournament in late 2021, an outing that served as the impetus for the $525,000 bonus they gave the Taiwanese lefthander that December. He has done much of the same in two full seasons as a pro, eliciting swings-and-misses at a high rate thanks to his deep repertoire and an understanding of how to use it—and doing it without elite velocity. Lin led all teenagers in 2023 with 121.1 innings.
Scouting Report: Lin can touch 93-94 mph with his four-seam fastball but averages just 90, sometimes pitching in the 88-89 mph range, and doesn’t get great ride on the pitch. His best offering is a changeup that gets good separation off his fastball and falls off the table late. Lin’s curveball can be wicked, with excellent spin and no hump, but his command of it is inconsistent. He also throws a slider, cutter and was tinkering with a sinker. None of his pitches are elite but everything plays up thanks to his plus command and good feel for pitching. Lin’s command has to be on point; he gets hit around on days it isn’t. Questions remain about his upside. His velocity is pedestrian at best and his slightly-built, 5-foot-11 frame makes projecting gains there difficult. It also raises questions about his ability to maintain his stuff while logging a starter’s workload. Moreover, there have not been many sub-6-foot lefthanded starters in recent years.
The Future: Lin’s ability to command pitches and miss bats should give him a chance at the highest level, but given the scarcity of midrotation pitchability starters in today’s game, it is hard to project him as any more than a No. 4 or 5 type.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60.
7. Yu-Min Lin
LHP
Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 160 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: The D-backs watched Lin carve through hitters several years older than him at an international tournament in late 2021, an outing that served as the impetus for the $525,000 bonus they gave the Taiwanese lefthander that December. He has done much of the same in two full seasons as a pro, eliciting swings-and-misses at a high rate thanks to his deep repertoire and an understanding of how to use it—and doing it without elite velocity. Lin led all teenagers in 2023 with 121.1 innings.
Scouting Report: Lin can touch 93-94 mph with his four-seam fastball but averages just 90, sometimes pitching in the 88-89 mph range, and doesn’t get great ride on the pitch. His best offering is a changeup that gets good separation off his fastball and falls off the table late. Lin’s curveball can be wicked, with excellent spin and no hump, but his command of it is inconsistent. He also throws a slider, cutter and was tinkering with a sinker. None of his pitches are elite but everything plays up thanks to his plus command and good feel for pitching. Lin’s command has to be on point; he gets hit around on days it isn’t. Questions remain about his upside. His velocity is pedestrian at best and his slightly-built, 5-foot-11 frame makes projecting gains there difficult. It also raises questions about his ability to maintain his stuff while logging a starter’s workload. Moreover, there have not been many sub-6-foot lefthanded starters in recent years.
The Future: Lin’s ability to command pitches and miss bats should give him a chance at the highest level, but given the scarcity of midrotation pitchability starters in today’s game, it is hard to project him as any more than a No. 4 or 5 type.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60.
2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
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Re: Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
From the BA San Francisco Giants 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
10. Grant McCray
OF
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 190 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: McCray was part of an excellent one-two punch of low-profile prospects identified by Florida area scout Jim Gabella, who found McCray in 2019 and then Vaun Brown in 2021. In his first two years as a pro, McCray showed tools but little in the way of production. The next year, 2022, was a different story. Mechanical changes helped him turn his tools into production, and he put himself on the map as one of the better prospects in San Francisco’s system by hitting .289/.383/.514 with 23 home runs and 43 stolen bases, mostly at Low-A San Jose.
Scouting Report: After a breakout 2022 season, McCray struggled with consistency but showed flashes of his big-time potential. His 2023 began on a low note with a .554 OPS at High-A Eugene in April. A month later, that figure was .909. At his best, McCray should fit into a hit-over-power mold. When he tries to reverse that profile, things tend to go awry. McCray hits the ball plenty hard—his 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was above-average for his level—but his miss rates on pitches both in and out of the zone were concerning. His 171 strikeouts were the most in the Northwest League and the second-most in all of High-A. McCray’s defense alleviates a bit of the pressure on his bat. He’s got a plus glove in center field, a plus throwing arm and double-plus speed. NWL managers voted McCray the best outfield defender on the circuit.
The Future: McCray has plenty of tools. Now, he needs to settle on a consistent approach in order to put them together more often. The 2024 season—which will likely be spent at Double-A—will represent the biggest test of McCray’s career. If he puts it together, he could be a classic table-setter at the top of San Francisco’s lineup.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Speed: 70 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 55.
From the BA San Diego Padres 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
3. Robby Snelling
LHP
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 210 | B-T: R-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 60/High.
Track Record: The Padres lured Snelling away from a commitment to Louisiana State in 2022 with a $3 million bonus, which was $1 million over slot for the 39th pick. In high school he starred in baseball and was a four-star recruit as a linebacker in football. Snelling was worth every penny. He breezed through 11 starts in his pro debut at Low-A Lake Elsinore with a 1.57 ERA, then made seven starts at High-A Fort Wayne and four more at Double-A San Antonio, including five no-hit innings in his second Texas League start. Snelling’s 1.82 ERA was the lowest of any minor league pitcher with at least 100 innings. He finished his first season in pro ball as the BA Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
Scouting Report: Broad shouldered with a thick, muscular lower half, Snelling shed some 10 pounds in the offseason following his draft year to become more whippy with his delivery. A spike-grip, 11-to-5 curveball was one of the better breakers in his prep class, but it has played up because of the way he locates and tunnels it off of a 95-96 mph fastball with ride. His curve velocity ranges from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Snelling began developing a changeup after the draft and it has some bottom, even if it is a bit firm at 4-5 mph slower than his heater. He also began throwing a tight slider in 2023, another weapon against lefthanded hitters. Still very much a linebacker on the mound, Snelling is an intense competitor who is unfazed by umpires’ questionable calls and the plays that do not go his way, which contributes to his profile as a sum-of-his-parts pitcher.
The Future: A dominant first season cemented Snelling’s floor as at least a No. 3 starter. He should receive an invite to big league spring training and could be on the MLB radar as soon as 2024.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 60.
10. Grant McCray
OF
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 190 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High.
Track Record: McCray was part of an excellent one-two punch of low-profile prospects identified by Florida area scout Jim Gabella, who found McCray in 2019 and then Vaun Brown in 2021. In his first two years as a pro, McCray showed tools but little in the way of production. The next year, 2022, was a different story. Mechanical changes helped him turn his tools into production, and he put himself on the map as one of the better prospects in San Francisco’s system by hitting .289/.383/.514 with 23 home runs and 43 stolen bases, mostly at Low-A San Jose.
Scouting Report: After a breakout 2022 season, McCray struggled with consistency but showed flashes of his big-time potential. His 2023 began on a low note with a .554 OPS at High-A Eugene in April. A month later, that figure was .909. At his best, McCray should fit into a hit-over-power mold. When he tries to reverse that profile, things tend to go awry. McCray hits the ball plenty hard—his 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was above-average for his level—but his miss rates on pitches both in and out of the zone were concerning. His 171 strikeouts were the most in the Northwest League and the second-most in all of High-A. McCray’s defense alleviates a bit of the pressure on his bat. He’s got a plus glove in center field, a plus throwing arm and double-plus speed. NWL managers voted McCray the best outfield defender on the circuit.
The Future: McCray has plenty of tools. Now, he needs to settle on a consistent approach in order to put them together more often. The 2024 season—which will likely be spent at Double-A—will represent the biggest test of McCray’s career. If he puts it together, he could be a classic table-setter at the top of San Francisco’s lineup.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Speed: 70 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 55.
From the BA San Diego Padres 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
3. Robby Snelling
LHP
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 210 | B-T: R-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 60/High.
Track Record: The Padres lured Snelling away from a commitment to Louisiana State in 2022 with a $3 million bonus, which was $1 million over slot for the 39th pick. In high school he starred in baseball and was a four-star recruit as a linebacker in football. Snelling was worth every penny. He breezed through 11 starts in his pro debut at Low-A Lake Elsinore with a 1.57 ERA, then made seven starts at High-A Fort Wayne and four more at Double-A San Antonio, including five no-hit innings in his second Texas League start. Snelling’s 1.82 ERA was the lowest of any minor league pitcher with at least 100 innings. He finished his first season in pro ball as the BA Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
Scouting Report: Broad shouldered with a thick, muscular lower half, Snelling shed some 10 pounds in the offseason following his draft year to become more whippy with his delivery. A spike-grip, 11-to-5 curveball was one of the better breakers in his prep class, but it has played up because of the way he locates and tunnels it off of a 95-96 mph fastball with ride. His curve velocity ranges from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Snelling began developing a changeup after the draft and it has some bottom, even if it is a bit firm at 4-5 mph slower than his heater. He also began throwing a tight slider in 2023, another weapon against lefthanded hitters. Still very much a linebacker on the mound, Snelling is an intense competitor who is unfazed by umpires’ questionable calls and the plays that do not go his way, which contributes to his profile as a sum-of-his-parts pitcher.
The Future: A dominant first season cemented Snelling’s floor as at least a No. 3 starter. He should receive an invite to big league spring training and could be on the MLB radar as soon as 2024.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 60.
2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
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Orioles
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Re: Orioles Prospect Report - November 2023
From the BA Baltimore Orioles 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
5. Heston Kjerstad
OF
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/Medium.
Track Record: The No. 2 overall pick in 2020 signed for a below-slot $5.2 million. Myocarditis (heart inflammation) and then a significant hamstring injury kept him off the field until the middle of 2022, but his first healthy pro season ended in the majors. Kjerstad had a .960 OPS at Double-A Bowie and added 10 home runs in 76 games at Triple-A Norfolk before joining the Orioles for their stretch run on Sept. 14.
Scouting Report: Kjerstad still has a unique swing with a high leg kick and a short stroke to the baseball, and he shows a knack for finding the barrel and hitting the ball hard at good angles. Kjerstad is advanced at formulating attack plans based on the pitcher he’s facing and proved adept at making contact on pitches in the zone, but he’s not a particularly stingy swinger, which could create challenges in the majors. However, his ability to put the bat on the ball could make him an average hitter with plus or better power. Kjerstad generates impressive carry off the bat and boasts power to all fields, often letting the location of the pitch determine where he drives it. While Kjerstad has worked some at first base to add versatility, his is a traditional corner outfield profile with a strong arm and decent athleticism but likely fringe-average overall defense.
The Future: After a long layoff, Kjerstad showed himself as a potential middle-of-the-order, everyday run producer that the Orioles drafted him to be during the pandemic. He could be poised for a significant role on the 2024 club as a bat-first corner outfielder who will continue to improve as he gains experience against high-level pitchers.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 55.
6. DL Hall
LHP
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/Medium.
Track Record: A $3 million signing as the 21st overall pick in 2017, Hall reached the majors in 2022 to help in the bullpen down the stretch. An offseason back injury hampered his ramp-up entering 2023, and he left Triple-A Norfolk in June to undergo a strength program and regain his velocity for the Orioles’ playoff push. The plan worked, and Hall was a bright spot in relief after closer Felix Bautista’s season-ending elbow injury.
Scouting Report: Hall pitches off an elite fastball from the left side. The pitch averaged 95.6 mph in the big leagues in 2023 and has routinely sat in the upper 90s over the last few years, with above-average hop and the ability to miss bats up in the zone. Hall pitched with diminished velocity at Triple-A earlier in the season, but he learned to better work with his secondary pitches and use them effectively in the zone. His mid-80s changeup has developed later in his career into a plus pitch and represents his best offering to righthanded hitters, while his slider in the mid-to-high 80s is a plus pitch at its best and is his primary way of attacking lefties. Hall reintroduced his curveball, his best pitch as an amateur, giving him a fourth pitch that could be above-average or better. Perhaps most importantly, he improved his command and threw more strikes in 2023 than in years past, giving hope that he’ll be able to reach his upside and be able to have enough control to stay in the rotation.
The Future: In a brief sample down the stretch in 2023, Hall showed he can be a potentially elite reliever, but the Orioles still believe his electric four-pitch mix from the left side is that of a starter. He’ll be in the majors in 2024 as long as he’s healthy, though the team’s offseason moves might determine his role.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 30.
7. Joey Ortiz
SS
Ht: 5'9" | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/High.
Track Record: Ortiz shed his all-glove, no-hit stigma with strength gains and swing changes coming out of the pandemic, and he broke out late in 2022 with a .991 second-half OPS that prompted the Orioles to add him to the 40-man roster that November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He made his major league debut in April 2023 for the first of three major league stints, though he spent the majority of the year proving last year’s second half wasn’t a fluke with an .850 OPS and 45 extra-base hits at Triple-A Norfolk.
Scouting Report: Ortiz has two true carrying tools to help him solidify his major league future: double-plus defensive traits and elite bat-to-ball skills. He’s a true shortstop with plus range, play-making ability and above-average throwing at the position. He is equally strong at second base, giving him another position where his defense can thrive at the highest level. Ortiz has advanced contact ability and rarely swings and misses, though some regression in his swing decisions in 2023 meant he wasn’t always swinging at pitches he could drive at good angles, even as he maintained consistent hard contact throughout the year. While he can be an average hitter with fringy power—or perhaps average at his peak—Ortiz’s defense means he’ll simply have to hit enough to justify a lineup spot and will still be plenty valuable to a team.
The Future: While he didn’t get much of an opportunity on the Orioles in 2023, Ortiz still has an everyday major league ceiling, though on a championship-caliber team he may be more of a utility player. He’ll be competing for a regular role in Baltimore in spring training.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 70 | Arm: 55.
From the BA Toronto Blue Jays 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
4. Brandon Barriera
LHP
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 180 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:55/Extreme.
Track Record: Barriera went 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in eight starts as a senior for American Heritage High in South Florida before deciding to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season to prepare for the draft. The Blue Jays selected him with the 23rd pick and signed him for just under $3.6 million. He made his pro debut in May 2023 after dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training. Barriera made four starts before heading to the injured list with an elbow sprain. He didn’t return until mid July, then made three starts before biceps soreness returned him to the IL.
Scouting Report: Since his time as an amateur, Barriera has added mass at the expense of his athleticism. He returned looking noticeably larger than his listed 180 pounds. The added strength didn’t translate to conditioning, and Barriera dealt with a trio of injuries. His fastball sits 92-94 mph with heavy cut, and he showed the ability to command his fastball at an average level to set up his slider. His slider is a plus bordering on double-plus sweeper that sits 82-84 mph with nearly a foot of horizontal break on average. He generated a high rates of swings-and-misses against the pitch and flashed the ability to dominate with the pitch in the zone. He showed a mid-to-high-80s changeup with parachuting drop. He threw his changeup just 14 times across all of his appearances. He also flashed a curveball with two-plane break in the upper 70s but it was thrown only a few times this season. His command of his slider and fastball are average, and that pair of pitches accounts for a majority of his usage.
The Future: Barriera is a risky prospect with a wide range of outcomes. He will need to improve his conditioning, add velocity and develop a third pitch to stay in the rotation. Otherwise he has the signature pitch to make it as a high-leverage reliever.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50
5. Heston Kjerstad
OF
Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/Medium.
Track Record: The No. 2 overall pick in 2020 signed for a below-slot $5.2 million. Myocarditis (heart inflammation) and then a significant hamstring injury kept him off the field until the middle of 2022, but his first healthy pro season ended in the majors. Kjerstad had a .960 OPS at Double-A Bowie and added 10 home runs in 76 games at Triple-A Norfolk before joining the Orioles for their stretch run on Sept. 14.
Scouting Report: Kjerstad still has a unique swing with a high leg kick and a short stroke to the baseball, and he shows a knack for finding the barrel and hitting the ball hard at good angles. Kjerstad is advanced at formulating attack plans based on the pitcher he’s facing and proved adept at making contact on pitches in the zone, but he’s not a particularly stingy swinger, which could create challenges in the majors. However, his ability to put the bat on the ball could make him an average hitter with plus or better power. Kjerstad generates impressive carry off the bat and boasts power to all fields, often letting the location of the pitch determine where he drives it. While Kjerstad has worked some at first base to add versatility, his is a traditional corner outfield profile with a strong arm and decent athleticism but likely fringe-average overall defense.
The Future: After a long layoff, Kjerstad showed himself as a potential middle-of-the-order, everyday run producer that the Orioles drafted him to be during the pandemic. He could be poised for a significant role on the 2024 club as a bat-first corner outfielder who will continue to improve as he gains experience against high-level pitchers.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 55.
6. DL Hall
LHP
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/Medium.
Track Record: A $3 million signing as the 21st overall pick in 2017, Hall reached the majors in 2022 to help in the bullpen down the stretch. An offseason back injury hampered his ramp-up entering 2023, and he left Triple-A Norfolk in June to undergo a strength program and regain his velocity for the Orioles’ playoff push. The plan worked, and Hall was a bright spot in relief after closer Felix Bautista’s season-ending elbow injury.
Scouting Report: Hall pitches off an elite fastball from the left side. The pitch averaged 95.6 mph in the big leagues in 2023 and has routinely sat in the upper 90s over the last few years, with above-average hop and the ability to miss bats up in the zone. Hall pitched with diminished velocity at Triple-A earlier in the season, but he learned to better work with his secondary pitches and use them effectively in the zone. His mid-80s changeup has developed later in his career into a plus pitch and represents his best offering to righthanded hitters, while his slider in the mid-to-high 80s is a plus pitch at its best and is his primary way of attacking lefties. Hall reintroduced his curveball, his best pitch as an amateur, giving him a fourth pitch that could be above-average or better. Perhaps most importantly, he improved his command and threw more strikes in 2023 than in years past, giving hope that he’ll be able to reach his upside and be able to have enough control to stay in the rotation.
The Future: In a brief sample down the stretch in 2023, Hall showed he can be a potentially elite reliever, but the Orioles still believe his electric four-pitch mix from the left side is that of a starter. He’ll be in the majors in 2024 as long as he’s healthy, though the team’s offseason moves might determine his role.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 30.
7. Joey Ortiz
SS
Ht: 5'9" | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:50/High.
Track Record: Ortiz shed his all-glove, no-hit stigma with strength gains and swing changes coming out of the pandemic, and he broke out late in 2022 with a .991 second-half OPS that prompted the Orioles to add him to the 40-man roster that November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He made his major league debut in April 2023 for the first of three major league stints, though he spent the majority of the year proving last year’s second half wasn’t a fluke with an .850 OPS and 45 extra-base hits at Triple-A Norfolk.
Scouting Report: Ortiz has two true carrying tools to help him solidify his major league future: double-plus defensive traits and elite bat-to-ball skills. He’s a true shortstop with plus range, play-making ability and above-average throwing at the position. He is equally strong at second base, giving him another position where his defense can thrive at the highest level. Ortiz has advanced contact ability and rarely swings and misses, though some regression in his swing decisions in 2023 meant he wasn’t always swinging at pitches he could drive at good angles, even as he maintained consistent hard contact throughout the year. While he can be an average hitter with fringy power—or perhaps average at his peak—Ortiz’s defense means he’ll simply have to hit enough to justify a lineup spot and will still be plenty valuable to a team.
The Future: While he didn’t get much of an opportunity on the Orioles in 2023, Ortiz still has an everyday major league ceiling, though on a championship-caliber team he may be more of a utility player. He’ll be competing for a regular role in Baltimore in spring training.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 70 | Arm: 55.
From the BA Toronto Blue Jays 2024 Top 10 Prospects:
4. Brandon Barriera
LHP
Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 180 | B-T: L-L
Age: null
BA Grade/Risk:55/Extreme.
Track Record: Barriera went 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in eight starts as a senior for American Heritage High in South Florida before deciding to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season to prepare for the draft. The Blue Jays selected him with the 23rd pick and signed him for just under $3.6 million. He made his pro debut in May 2023 after dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training. Barriera made four starts before heading to the injured list with an elbow sprain. He didn’t return until mid July, then made three starts before biceps soreness returned him to the IL.
Scouting Report: Since his time as an amateur, Barriera has added mass at the expense of his athleticism. He returned looking noticeably larger than his listed 180 pounds. The added strength didn’t translate to conditioning, and Barriera dealt with a trio of injuries. His fastball sits 92-94 mph with heavy cut, and he showed the ability to command his fastball at an average level to set up his slider. His slider is a plus bordering on double-plus sweeper that sits 82-84 mph with nearly a foot of horizontal break on average. He generated a high rates of swings-and-misses against the pitch and flashed the ability to dominate with the pitch in the zone. He showed a mid-to-high-80s changeup with parachuting drop. He threw his changeup just 14 times across all of his appearances. He also flashed a curveball with two-plane break in the upper 70s but it was thrown only a few times this season. His command of his slider and fastball are average, and that pair of pitches accounts for a majority of his usage.
The Future: Barriera is a risky prospect with a wide range of outcomes. He will need to improve his conditioning, add velocity and develop a third pitch to stay in the rotation. Otherwise he has the signature pitch to make it as a high-leverage reliever.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50
2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
