The Situation: The White Sox have finally decided they need a fifth starter, turning to Nick Nastrini—former Top 101 prospect and one-half of the Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn return.
The Background: The Dodgers took Nastrini in the fourth round of the 2021 draft after a college career in which the righty dealt with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, a pandemic, and control woes. Of course, LA’s pitching dev team immediately helped cut his walk rate to a more manageable four-plus per nine, and the raw stuff played up in the pros. In 2022, Nastrini threw more innings than he did in three years at UCLA, flashing four above-average-to-plus offerings and generating a 35% K-rate between the Midwest and Texas Leagues. The Dodgers can and will keep getting away with it. Nastrini ended the year ranked fifth on a ludicrously deep LA prospect list, and 54th overall in baseball. His 2023 was more uneven. He got a late start to the season, and the stuff and command back slid a bit. Nastrini looked more reliever than starter even after a better stretch run with the White Sox post-deadline. He clocked in at fifth on a team list again—albeit now in a much weaker system—but did look the favorite to break camp from Glendale as the fifth starter. And he did, I suppose, it just happened to involve a pit stop in Charlotte for enough time to get his team an extra year of control.
The Scouting Report: Nastrini is a high-effort righty, tossing a full four-pitch mix. His velocity has slid year-over-year, and he sits more in an average velocity range now, although he can still reach back for 95-plus. The fastball command is below-average and while the pitch has good carry, he tends to lose a couple ticks and the top of the zone later in starts; 93 center-cut can get turned around pretty easily. He doesn’t have to rely on his fastball all that much, though, as all three of the secondary offerings have at least above-average potential. His change-up has been the best of the bunch, sitting mid-80s with good power fade. Both of Nastrini’s breaking balls can miss bats. He’s relied more on a mid-80s slider that does generate whiffs, though it can hang out in the strike zone a bit too often, but his slower 12-6 curve flashes plus as well. If you are getting flashbacks to the “four plus pitches” great-stuff reliever he was traded for, well, that’s not unintentional I suppose. Nastrini’s command and control as a pro has been far better than in his college days, but he may not be quite efficient enough to turn over a lineup multiple times. But everyone is a five-and-dive starter nowadays, so Nastrini should fit right in.
Immediate Big-League Future: The White Sox are obligated per Major League bylaws to play 162 games this season. They’ll need a starting pitcher for all of them, and can’t keep throwing Garrett Crochet out there over a quarter of a time. Nastrini should get plenty of opportunities to work out his struggles, and I’d expect more struggles than gems, although he will be capable of the occasional flash of brilliance. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Fantasy Impact: What do you really want here? He pitches for the Chicago White Sox. Sure, Crochet is out here proving that a team as bad as the Pale Hose can have a viable fantasy starting pitcher, but the odds are not in Nastrini’s favor in redraft leagues. Forget about wins, okay? Anything you get there is gravy. So he’s a three-quarters-category fantasy play, and one who’s likely to provide even fewer innings than a comparable established big-league third-or-fourth-starter. That leaves us with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, and given his four-pitch mix … I’ve got a hot take for you.
If you believe in Nastrini, roster him early for a couple of beneficial-to-you starts against bad teams. Stream him for a couple of runs before the league gets the full book on him or hitters see him for a third time (at all, not just within a game). If his command looks bad from the jump, don’t roster him. If his velocity dips in his first start, don’t roster him. If you play in a league with 12-teams or less, don’t roster him. I actually think it’s possible that he could eventually emerge as a solid back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher due to the mix of pitches and the fact that he should get every opportunity to sink or swim on the South Side. But he should be an option of last resort, a hail mary, or a wild card, not someone you should target. –Bryan Grosnick
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bad2377d0f
2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (Triple-A Buffalo): 3-5, 2 R, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB.
Should the Jays need a boost to the offense this year, Palmegiani is likely the first to get the call. He’s produced big power numbers at every level of the organization since being drafted in the 14th round of the 2021 draft. There’s a bit too much in-zone swing-and-miss against premium velocity and he can be a bit stiff in the field, but the pop is real, and Palmegiani should get a chance to bring it to the Rogers Center sometime this summer.
Richard Fitts, RHP, Boston Red Sox (Triple-A Worcester): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.
Acquired from the Yankees in exchange for Alex Verdugo, Fitts has started the year strong at Worcester, allowing just four earned runs in his 15 innings of work. Big and physical on the mound, Fitts fills up the zone with his mid-90s fastball, slider, and change. The Red Sox’ pitching has been a bright spot early in the season but should they falter or injuries continue, Fitts will likely be the first to get the call to provide support.
Tyler Schweitzer, LHP, Chicago White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ion-fitts/
Nick Nastrini, Chicago White Sox (6% rostered)
There’s not a lot about which to get excited on Chicago’s South Side these days, but Nastrini might be one of them.
Nastrini, who along with fellow exciting arm Jordan Leasure and outfielder Trayce Thompson was part of the return from the Dodgers for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly last July, made his major-league debut on Monday against the Royals. He showed well in that start, allowing two runs over five innings while striking out five.
A former Top 101 prospect, the BP prospect team thinks Nastrini is eventually destined for the bullpen despite his current role as a starter. He is starting for now, though, and that’s all we care about. Wins will be in short supply, but the talent and opportunity are there to be an interesting fantasy player in the right matchups.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... eek-three/
Should the Jays need a boost to the offense this year, Palmegiani is likely the first to get the call. He’s produced big power numbers at every level of the organization since being drafted in the 14th round of the 2021 draft. There’s a bit too much in-zone swing-and-miss against premium velocity and he can be a bit stiff in the field, but the pop is real, and Palmegiani should get a chance to bring it to the Rogers Center sometime this summer.
Richard Fitts, RHP, Boston Red Sox (Triple-A Worcester): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.
Acquired from the Yankees in exchange for Alex Verdugo, Fitts has started the year strong at Worcester, allowing just four earned runs in his 15 innings of work. Big and physical on the mound, Fitts fills up the zone with his mid-90s fastball, slider, and change. The Red Sox’ pitching has been a bright spot early in the season but should they falter or injuries continue, Fitts will likely be the first to get the call to provide support.
Tyler Schweitzer, LHP, Chicago White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem): 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ion-fitts/
Nick Nastrini, Chicago White Sox (6% rostered)
There’s not a lot about which to get excited on Chicago’s South Side these days, but Nastrini might be one of them.
Nastrini, who along with fellow exciting arm Jordan Leasure and outfielder Trayce Thompson was part of the return from the Dodgers for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly last July, made his major-league debut on Monday against the Royals. He showed well in that start, allowing two runs over five innings while striking out five.
A former Top 101 prospect, the BP prospect team thinks Nastrini is eventually destined for the bullpen despite his current role as a starter. He is starting for now, though, and that’s all we care about. Wins will be in short supply, but the talent and opportunity are there to be an interesting fantasy player in the right matchups.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... eek-three/
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Jared Karros, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (not ranked):
Jared may currently be known nationally as Eric Karros’ son, but he’s been making a name for himself in the Dodgers’ system. A 16th-round pick in 2022 out of UCLA, Karros spent most of last season in Low A but finished the year with three impressive outings for High-A Great Lakes. He’s picked up where he left off last year with the Loons, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings with a 25:2 K:BB.
Karros isn’t overpowering (sits in the low-90s), but he gets good extension with his 6-7 frame and he pairs his fastball with a big 12-6 curveball. His command and control are both above-average, giving him a chance to be a backend starter in the big leagues. Karros, 23, is likely to get a test in Double A by midseason.
https://theathletic.com/5456544/2024/04 ... wilkinson/
39. Jared Karros, RHP
The son of former Dodgers first baseman Eric Karros, Jared posted a 3.44 ERA across the Class A levels in his pro debut. He effectively elevates his 92-94 mph fastball, lands his breaking ball for strikes and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 0-in-2024/
Jared may currently be known nationally as Eric Karros’ son, but he’s been making a name for himself in the Dodgers’ system. A 16th-round pick in 2022 out of UCLA, Karros spent most of last season in Low A but finished the year with three impressive outings for High-A Great Lakes. He’s picked up where he left off last year with the Loons, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings with a 25:2 K:BB.
Karros isn’t overpowering (sits in the low-90s), but he gets good extension with his 6-7 frame and he pairs his fastball with a big 12-6 curveball. His command and control are both above-average, giving him a chance to be a backend starter in the big leagues. Karros, 23, is likely to get a test in Double A by midseason.
https://theathletic.com/5456544/2024/04 ... wilkinson/
39. Jared Karros, RHP
The son of former Dodgers first baseman Eric Karros, Jared posted a 3.44 ERA across the Class A levels in his pro debut. He effectively elevates his 92-94 mph fastball, lands his breaking ball for strikes and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 0-in-2024/
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
In a lot of respects, Kyle Karros is like most minor league baseball players, just trying to earn a living playing a kid’s game and making a name for himself.
But it’s his name that usually get first recognition. Such is the case for the son of a longtime former big leaguer.
Karros’ famous father is Eric Karros, who played 14 seasons primarily with the Los Angeles Dodgers and now covers the team as an analyst.
Kyle, a third baseman, isn’t the only Karros progeny to follow in his father’s footsteps – older brother Jared is in the Dodgers system.
Kyle and Jared took the same path to professional baseball as Eric did, starring at UCLA in college before hearing their names called in the MLB draft. Jared was selected in the 16th round in the 2022 draft, Kyle was taken in the fifth round by the Colorado Rockies last summer.
“We like the young man. That being said, we also like the ballplayer that comes with it,” Rockies special assistant to the general manager Clint Hurdle said late week at Avista Stadium. “He’s had the opportunity to have a peek behind the curtain a lot of kids don’t get, following his dad, being in those situations. His dad and mom raised him right. There’s no entitlement coming in. He did his work at UCLA. He’s got good makeup. Good teammate, good understanding of the game.”
During last year’s draft, everyone in the family kind of expected that Kyle would get picked up by the Dodgers, like his dad and brother. But when the Rockies came calling, Kyle Karros knew it was the right fit.
“Being over here with the Rockies, I think that this has been very good for me,” he said. “I would have never heard the end of it, following in their footsteps and everything. But being over here, I’ve loved every part of being with the Rockies. I think it’s the perfect place for me to kind of start my own my own path.”
Karros had the talent to play in college anywhere, but UCLA was an easy pick for him.
“I loved where I grew up (in Southern California),” he said. “Obviously, UCLA isn’t too far from there. So that part was honestly probably my favorite part, being in the area that I loved growing up in and getting to continue in that area for college. … The aspect of having some history there with my dad. But the coolest part was me playing with my brother for another couple years following high school.”
Karros didn’t think about it while playing with Jared as teammates, but now he’s “super nervous” watching him pitch.
“I couldn’t imagine actually having to field a ground ball for him now,” he said. “I did it back in the day, but now I’m just nervous as hell pulling for him. … It’s definitely a surreal experience playing behind him. You obviously pull for your teammates. But when it’s family out there, you can’t even describe it.”
Karros, the Rockies’ No. 28 prospect according to MLB.com, is off to a terrific start for the Indians this season. Through 15 games, Karros is hitting .327 with a .448 on-base percentage over 55 at-bats. He has one homer, 11 RBIs and two steals.
Jared is doing pretty well, too. In three starts for High-A Great Lakes, he’s 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 15 innings with 17 strikeouts.
The Indians won a team-record eight games to start the season and are 11-4 through the first three series heading into six games on the road against Vancouver this week.
“When we do well as a team, I normally do well,” Karros said. “It takes the pressure, the stress and all that off yourself when you’re genuinely going out there and just trying to help the team win.”
“I’ve been more than excited working with Kyle,” Indians hitting coach Tom Sutaris said. “Just the opportunity to work with him and talk baseball. He really has a great self-awareness. I think the makeup is off the charts and I think the physical tools are there to be a really special player. He understands exactly how pitchers are working. He does his homework every day, and he’s prepared every time he comes out here to work before game and then compete in the game.”
There’s not much of an age gap between the siblings, so they were good friends growing up and didn’t have much of a rivalry.
“He wasn’t like the older brother picking on me, because I’d probably put up a pretty good fight if he was doing that,” Kyle Karros said. “But definitely the dynamic with him being older brother – his friend group, I always wanted to be part of that. And I did. I always kind of just rolled with him and his crew.”
That dynamic is probably why the younger Karros seems mature beyond his 21 years.
“It was definitely a huge advantage for me, and I always had a good solid group to look up to and fit in with him,” he said. “I think another reason I was kind of early to mature mentally was just being around my dad a lot, too. He included me with everything. He would always try to expose me to as much as he could.”
Some sons of big leaguers have talked about the pressure to live up expectations – either within the family or from outside sources – due to carrying the famous last name.
“I think the advantages far outweigh any disadvantages,” Karros said. “Just the resources we have access to. Especially growing up in L.A., I’m very fortunate for that because he obviously made a ton of relationships while he played.
“We had a very similar path growing up, and then UCLA, and then baseball. So, anything I’m experiencing right now, he’s probably experienced at some point. Having him to just relay stuff to, bounce ideas – if I’m struggling, I can talk to him, because like I said, he’s been through it all.”
Eric was Kyle’s first hitting coach. But that relationship works best, Kyle says, when it’s “dad first.”
“The more I’ve worked with him as hitting coach, the more I turn off the hitting coach side of him and just treat him like my father,” he said. “There were so many times where hitting would honestly get into the way of our relationship. And we’d just scream at each other in the cage. … I need him to be my dad more than I need them to my hitting coach at this point.”
Karros called his mother, Trish Maly, “the glue” and his sister, Mikah Maly-Karros, a former college athlete and psychologist, a “stabilizer” in the family.
“(Mom) was more on the creative side, psychological side, emotional side,” he said. “If stuff was getting too intense with pops, I’d go to mom and talk to her. … You get me, my brother and dad all in the same room and it’s really a locker room dynamic. And then I have a mom and a sister who aren’t quite in that locker room. So (Mikah) kind of gives my mom some more leverage.”
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/ ... ing-name-/
28. Kyle Karros
3B, Spokane Indians, A+ (Colorado Rockies)
AGE: 21, DOB: 07/26/2002
BATS: R, THROWS: R
HT: 6' 5", WT: 220
DRAFTED: 2023, 5th (145) - COL
ETA: 2026
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40
The Karros family has become a UCLA dynasty. Eric, of course, went there before a long big league career. His two sons also attended college there: Jared, a right-hander drafted by the Dodgers in 2022 and Kyle, who went in the fifth round of the 2023 Draft to the Rockies. A three-year starter for the Bruins, the youngest Karros shook off a bad stint in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2022 and started well in his Draft season back at school until an ankle injury hampered him. But the Rockies valued him enough to take him on Day 2, sandwiched in between a run of four college arms they selected in those rounds.
Before he got hurt, Karros was using the 15 pounds of strength he had added to good effect at UCLA. He also was utilizing a more closed-off stance and has shown the ability to use the big part of the field well and make a ton of contact. His strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate improved, and while he hasn’t put up big power numbers, he can backspin the ball the other way and his approach should help him tap into his raw power.
The work that Karros did on his conditioning also made him a better defender at third. His plus arm always worked from the hot corner and his added agility and ranginess gives him every chance to stay there at this level. But he's going to have to go out and prove he can impact the ball enough to profile as an everyday player at the infield corner.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/rockies/k ... ros-691720
29. Kyle Karros, 3B
Drafted: 5th Round, 2023 from UCLA (COL)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 40/50 30/50 30/30 35/60 60
One of Eric’s two sons in pro ball (Jared pitches in the Dodgers system), Kyle hit .276/.342/.407 at UCLA and was drafted in the fifth round. He might end up growing into more power, as he’s a strapping 6-foot-5 and still has room for strength on his broad-shouldered frame. His lever length does tend to cause Karros to inside out the baseball the other way, but unlike a lot of long-levered hitters for whom this is true, he doesn’t typically get beat around the hands. He is also a surprisingly slick defender for his size, making up for what he lacks in twitch with elegant footwork, deft hands, and a plus arm. Karros stands a good chance to be a four corners role player and has a puncher’s chance to be an everyday third baseman if indeed he can add power as a pro.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/colorado-ro ... ects-2024/
38. Kyle Karros, 3B
The son of former National League Rookie Of The Year Eric Karros, Kyle enjoyed three solid but unspectacular seasons at UCLA, where he showed solid plate skills and projectable power due to his 6-foot-5 frame.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 0-in-2024/
But it’s his name that usually get first recognition. Such is the case for the son of a longtime former big leaguer.
Karros’ famous father is Eric Karros, who played 14 seasons primarily with the Los Angeles Dodgers and now covers the team as an analyst.
Kyle, a third baseman, isn’t the only Karros progeny to follow in his father’s footsteps – older brother Jared is in the Dodgers system.
Kyle and Jared took the same path to professional baseball as Eric did, starring at UCLA in college before hearing their names called in the MLB draft. Jared was selected in the 16th round in the 2022 draft, Kyle was taken in the fifth round by the Colorado Rockies last summer.
“We like the young man. That being said, we also like the ballplayer that comes with it,” Rockies special assistant to the general manager Clint Hurdle said late week at Avista Stadium. “He’s had the opportunity to have a peek behind the curtain a lot of kids don’t get, following his dad, being in those situations. His dad and mom raised him right. There’s no entitlement coming in. He did his work at UCLA. He’s got good makeup. Good teammate, good understanding of the game.”
During last year’s draft, everyone in the family kind of expected that Kyle would get picked up by the Dodgers, like his dad and brother. But when the Rockies came calling, Kyle Karros knew it was the right fit.
“Being over here with the Rockies, I think that this has been very good for me,” he said. “I would have never heard the end of it, following in their footsteps and everything. But being over here, I’ve loved every part of being with the Rockies. I think it’s the perfect place for me to kind of start my own my own path.”
Karros had the talent to play in college anywhere, but UCLA was an easy pick for him.
“I loved where I grew up (in Southern California),” he said. “Obviously, UCLA isn’t too far from there. So that part was honestly probably my favorite part, being in the area that I loved growing up in and getting to continue in that area for college. … The aspect of having some history there with my dad. But the coolest part was me playing with my brother for another couple years following high school.”
Karros didn’t think about it while playing with Jared as teammates, but now he’s “super nervous” watching him pitch.
“I couldn’t imagine actually having to field a ground ball for him now,” he said. “I did it back in the day, but now I’m just nervous as hell pulling for him. … It’s definitely a surreal experience playing behind him. You obviously pull for your teammates. But when it’s family out there, you can’t even describe it.”
Karros, the Rockies’ No. 28 prospect according to MLB.com, is off to a terrific start for the Indians this season. Through 15 games, Karros is hitting .327 with a .448 on-base percentage over 55 at-bats. He has one homer, 11 RBIs and two steals.
Jared is doing pretty well, too. In three starts for High-A Great Lakes, he’s 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 15 innings with 17 strikeouts.
The Indians won a team-record eight games to start the season and are 11-4 through the first three series heading into six games on the road against Vancouver this week.
“When we do well as a team, I normally do well,” Karros said. “It takes the pressure, the stress and all that off yourself when you’re genuinely going out there and just trying to help the team win.”
“I’ve been more than excited working with Kyle,” Indians hitting coach Tom Sutaris said. “Just the opportunity to work with him and talk baseball. He really has a great self-awareness. I think the makeup is off the charts and I think the physical tools are there to be a really special player. He understands exactly how pitchers are working. He does his homework every day, and he’s prepared every time he comes out here to work before game and then compete in the game.”
There’s not much of an age gap between the siblings, so they were good friends growing up and didn’t have much of a rivalry.
“He wasn’t like the older brother picking on me, because I’d probably put up a pretty good fight if he was doing that,” Kyle Karros said. “But definitely the dynamic with him being older brother – his friend group, I always wanted to be part of that. And I did. I always kind of just rolled with him and his crew.”
That dynamic is probably why the younger Karros seems mature beyond his 21 years.
“It was definitely a huge advantage for me, and I always had a good solid group to look up to and fit in with him,” he said. “I think another reason I was kind of early to mature mentally was just being around my dad a lot, too. He included me with everything. He would always try to expose me to as much as he could.”
Some sons of big leaguers have talked about the pressure to live up expectations – either within the family or from outside sources – due to carrying the famous last name.
“I think the advantages far outweigh any disadvantages,” Karros said. “Just the resources we have access to. Especially growing up in L.A., I’m very fortunate for that because he obviously made a ton of relationships while he played.
“We had a very similar path growing up, and then UCLA, and then baseball. So, anything I’m experiencing right now, he’s probably experienced at some point. Having him to just relay stuff to, bounce ideas – if I’m struggling, I can talk to him, because like I said, he’s been through it all.”
Eric was Kyle’s first hitting coach. But that relationship works best, Kyle says, when it’s “dad first.”
“The more I’ve worked with him as hitting coach, the more I turn off the hitting coach side of him and just treat him like my father,” he said. “There were so many times where hitting would honestly get into the way of our relationship. And we’d just scream at each other in the cage. … I need him to be my dad more than I need them to my hitting coach at this point.”
Karros called his mother, Trish Maly, “the glue” and his sister, Mikah Maly-Karros, a former college athlete and psychologist, a “stabilizer” in the family.
“(Mom) was more on the creative side, psychological side, emotional side,” he said. “If stuff was getting too intense with pops, I’d go to mom and talk to her. … You get me, my brother and dad all in the same room and it’s really a locker room dynamic. And then I have a mom and a sister who aren’t quite in that locker room. So (Mikah) kind of gives my mom some more leverage.”
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/ ... ing-name-/
28. Kyle Karros
3B, Spokane Indians, A+ (Colorado Rockies)
AGE: 21, DOB: 07/26/2002
BATS: R, THROWS: R
HT: 6' 5", WT: 220
DRAFTED: 2023, 5th (145) - COL
ETA: 2026
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40
The Karros family has become a UCLA dynasty. Eric, of course, went there before a long big league career. His two sons also attended college there: Jared, a right-hander drafted by the Dodgers in 2022 and Kyle, who went in the fifth round of the 2023 Draft to the Rockies. A three-year starter for the Bruins, the youngest Karros shook off a bad stint in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2022 and started well in his Draft season back at school until an ankle injury hampered him. But the Rockies valued him enough to take him on Day 2, sandwiched in between a run of four college arms they selected in those rounds.
Before he got hurt, Karros was using the 15 pounds of strength he had added to good effect at UCLA. He also was utilizing a more closed-off stance and has shown the ability to use the big part of the field well and make a ton of contact. His strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate improved, and while he hasn’t put up big power numbers, he can backspin the ball the other way and his approach should help him tap into his raw power.
The work that Karros did on his conditioning also made him a better defender at third. His plus arm always worked from the hot corner and his added agility and ranginess gives him every chance to stay there at this level. But he's going to have to go out and prove he can impact the ball enough to profile as an everyday player at the infield corner.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/rockies/k ... ros-691720
29. Kyle Karros, 3B
Drafted: 5th Round, 2023 from UCLA (COL)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 40/50 30/50 30/30 35/60 60
One of Eric’s two sons in pro ball (Jared pitches in the Dodgers system), Kyle hit .276/.342/.407 at UCLA and was drafted in the fifth round. He might end up growing into more power, as he’s a strapping 6-foot-5 and still has room for strength on his broad-shouldered frame. His lever length does tend to cause Karros to inside out the baseball the other way, but unlike a lot of long-levered hitters for whom this is true, he doesn’t typically get beat around the hands. He is also a surprisingly slick defender for his size, making up for what he lacks in twitch with elegant footwork, deft hands, and a plus arm. Karros stands a good chance to be a four corners role player and has a puncher’s chance to be an everyday third baseman if indeed he can add power as a pro.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/colorado-ro ... ects-2024/
38. Kyle Karros, 3B
The son of former National League Rookie Of The Year Eric Karros, Kyle enjoyed three solid but unspectacular seasons at UCLA, where he showed solid plate skills and projectable power due to his 6-foot-5 frame.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 0-in-2024/
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Keiner Delgado, 2B, Pirates
The newest Pirates prospect came to Pittsburgh on April 30 as the player to be named later in the deal that sent JT Brubaker to New York. Delgado was part of a loaded FCL Yankees club and earned plaudits from scouts for his ability to do a little bit of everything while always being one of the smartest players on the diamond. He’s a versatile defender who makes plenty of contact but could stand to add strength in order to gain impact as well.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ex-league/
The newest Pirates prospect came to Pittsburgh on April 30 as the player to be named later in the deal that sent JT Brubaker to New York. Delgado was part of a loaded FCL Yankees club and earned plaudits from scouts for his ability to do a little bit of everything while always being one of the smartest players on the diamond. He’s a versatile defender who makes plenty of contact but could stand to add strength in order to gain impact as well.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ex-league/
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Padres
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Jared Karros, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (High-A Great Lakes): 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.
A 16th-round selection in 2022 out of UCLA and son of a former Dodger star, Karros is proving that he is not just a legacy selection, but a bonafide pitching prospect capable of making an impact at the highest level. He’s been dominant early this season in the Midwest League, allowing just six earned runs in 31 innings of work. Karros doesn’t generate a ton of swing-and-miss but controls his mid-90s fastball, change, and 12-to-6 breaker well.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ta-braves/
A 16th-round selection in 2022 out of UCLA and son of a former Dodger star, Karros is proving that he is not just a legacy selection, but a bonafide pitching prospect capable of making an impact at the highest level. He’s been dominant early this season in the Midwest League, allowing just six earned runs in 31 innings of work. Karros doesn’t generate a ton of swing-and-miss but controls his mid-90s fastball, change, and 12-to-6 breaker well.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ta-braves/
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Padres
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- Posts: 4410
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- Name: Jim Berger
Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Eric Adler has a path to the Majors.
The first part of said path is to pitch well for division-leading Double-A Birmingham, just as he did over eight scoreless outings for High-A Winston-Salem to start the 2024 season before he earned a promotion to the Barons last Wednesday. He did the same with a 2.87 ERA over 28 games for the Dash and Single-A Kannapolis during the 2023 campaign.
Then, with potentially one more stop at Triple-A Charlotte, a jump to the White Sox is in Adler's sights. It’s a 2024 White Sox trip for the hard-throwing right-hander.
“I believe I can get there this year, to be totally honest,” Adler told me during a recent phone interview. “I trust my stuff to get me there.
“It’s just a matter of doing it on the field. I’m excited to put it all out there and see where it takes me.”
Adler -- who was expected to go in the first three rounds of the 2022 MLB Draft thanks to a fastball in the high 90s that once touched 100 mph during Cape Cod League competition -- was selected in the sixth round. He had control issues in ’22 during his junior season with Wake Forest, walking 25 over 21 1/3 innings, which might have made him fall in the Draft.
Now, Adler has worked as an effective closer in the White Sox system, featuring his cutter (which he is working to develop more downward movement on instead of horizontal action) alongside his fastball.
“Just trusting my stuff really,” Adler said. “Making the cutter the bread-and-butter [pitch] to where I'm getting back in the counts with it or getting to two strikes quick with it, and then using the fastball to put them away. I kind of enjoy that way of pitching a little bit. It fools hitters more than just trying to work around with the heater.”
Of course, having that high-velocity heater in his arsenal with the cutter and a curve is always a plus.
“To know that I could reach back and grab one if I need to, it definitely helps,” Adler said. “Just elevating any heaters is hard to hit, and if you add that velocity behind it, it just makes it that much harder. I would like to think that I have a riding fastball, so it kind of gets on you even more.
“I’m often described as kind of emotionless. Obviously, you want some fire coming out of your closer, but that’s just not how I operate best. I’ll get fired up for sure if the situation grants. Jumping around or whatever. Until the job is over, I try to stay as even keel as possible.”
Will Adler’s routine legitimately become part of the 2024 White Sox? The team won’t stop his progress.
“Physically, the stuff is real,” White Sox director of player development Paul Janish said recently of Adler. “The makeup -- when I say makeup, I’m talking about the in-game presentation -- he seems to be unflappable, which is super encouraging for what is probably equating to a high-leverage guy.
“We are going to push him as he shows he can do it, because it’s a little different for a short-inning pitcher type guy with real stuff. So, up to this point, really encouraged. I know he’s another pretty motivated kid. He knows where he wants to go, which is a pretty big piece.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/eric-adler-amo ... ning-heads
The first part of said path is to pitch well for division-leading Double-A Birmingham, just as he did over eight scoreless outings for High-A Winston-Salem to start the 2024 season before he earned a promotion to the Barons last Wednesday. He did the same with a 2.87 ERA over 28 games for the Dash and Single-A Kannapolis during the 2023 campaign.
Then, with potentially one more stop at Triple-A Charlotte, a jump to the White Sox is in Adler's sights. It’s a 2024 White Sox trip for the hard-throwing right-hander.
“I believe I can get there this year, to be totally honest,” Adler told me during a recent phone interview. “I trust my stuff to get me there.
“It’s just a matter of doing it on the field. I’m excited to put it all out there and see where it takes me.”
Adler -- who was expected to go in the first three rounds of the 2022 MLB Draft thanks to a fastball in the high 90s that once touched 100 mph during Cape Cod League competition -- was selected in the sixth round. He had control issues in ’22 during his junior season with Wake Forest, walking 25 over 21 1/3 innings, which might have made him fall in the Draft.
Now, Adler has worked as an effective closer in the White Sox system, featuring his cutter (which he is working to develop more downward movement on instead of horizontal action) alongside his fastball.
“Just trusting my stuff really,” Adler said. “Making the cutter the bread-and-butter [pitch] to where I'm getting back in the counts with it or getting to two strikes quick with it, and then using the fastball to put them away. I kind of enjoy that way of pitching a little bit. It fools hitters more than just trying to work around with the heater.”
Of course, having that high-velocity heater in his arsenal with the cutter and a curve is always a plus.
“To know that I could reach back and grab one if I need to, it definitely helps,” Adler said. “Just elevating any heaters is hard to hit, and if you add that velocity behind it, it just makes it that much harder. I would like to think that I have a riding fastball, so it kind of gets on you even more.
“I’m often described as kind of emotionless. Obviously, you want some fire coming out of your closer, but that’s just not how I operate best. I’ll get fired up for sure if the situation grants. Jumping around or whatever. Until the job is over, I try to stay as even keel as possible.”
Will Adler’s routine legitimately become part of the 2024 White Sox? The team won’t stop his progress.
“Physically, the stuff is real,” White Sox director of player development Paul Janish said recently of Adler. “The makeup -- when I say makeup, I’m talking about the in-game presentation -- he seems to be unflappable, which is super encouraging for what is probably equating to a high-leverage guy.
“We are going to push him as he shows he can do it, because it’s a little different for a short-inning pitcher type guy with real stuff. So, up to this point, really encouraged. I know he’s another pretty motivated kid. He knows where he wants to go, which is a pretty big piece.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/eric-adler-amo ... ning-heads
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Padres
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Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Among the crowd of high-end starting pitchers to sign with new teams over the offseason, perhaps none had wider error bars surrounding his projection than Shota Imanaga. An NPB star for the past half-decade, Imanaga had a track record of success but also many questions about how his skills would translate to MLB. This certainly is reflected in his contract with the Cubs, which came with just two guaranteed years worth $23 million, a far cry from our $88 million estimate. But for the past month and change, the 30-year old rookie has been up there with the league’s best.
Shota Imanaga’s Stat Rankings:
K% BB% ERA xERA FIP
18th 4th 1st 4th 8th
out of 79 qualified pitchers
Through his first seven starts, Imanaga has allowed just five earned runs, fewest among qualified pitchers. He’s been downright dominant through much of this stretch, proving his stuff is up to major league standards while controlling the strike zone better than almost anyone else. But he’s done so differently than other top pitching talents. Let’s take a look at his pitch arsenal.
From a quick glance at the stat sheet, the first thing that catches my eye is the sheer frequency with which Imanaga uses his fastball. In an era where nearly two-thirds of starters throw non-fastballs a majority of the time, Imanaga’s 58.4% usage (91st percentile) stands out. As pointed out by MLB.com’s David Adler, Imanaga’s heater has been the best individual pitch in baseball by run value, beating out Corbin Burnes’ notorious cutter Tyler Glasnow’s frightening fastball. But while the other heaters at the top of this list sit in the mid- to upper-90s, Imanaga’s four-seamer averages just 92 mph.
The list of starters who sit at 92 or below is rather short, and mostly consists of names that we certainly don’t think of as strikeout artists. In his piece, Adler noted that Imanaga’s fastball has elite induced vertical break (IVB). But carry alone doesn’t always make a fastball effective; Triston McKenzie’s four-seamer, which currently leads the league in fastball IVB, has the highest xwOBA allowed of any such pitch (min. 50 plate appearances). Rather, what makes Imanaga’s offering so special is its plus movement in combination with its ultra-low release point.
Pitchers like McKenzie and Ross Stripling throw from high, over-the-top arm slots, making their backspin (and thus vertical movement) predictable for hitters. In contrast, Imanaga’s delivery from a low three-quarters slot creates a movement profile much different than what you’d expect from his arm angle. Earlier this week, Michael Rosen broke down the biomechanics of Imanaga’s ability to spin the ball so well from an outlier release point, showing how his hip and lower-body flexibility enable him to “get behind” the ball and create backspin. Throughout the league, no starter gets a higher IVB than Imanaga does from such a low release point – those throwing from lower slots are primarily sidearmers whose deliveries generate run at the expense of carry, while the only two hurlers with more IVB (min. 250 four-seamers), McKenzie and Tyler Anderson, have release points about a foot higher.
Because of its low release point and high carry, Imanaga’s four-seamer has the third-shallowest vertical approach angle in baseball, creating the deception that causes batters to swing under it with surprising frequency. Its 12.5% swinging strike rate and 22.1% putaway rate easily exceed the league averages of 10.3% and 17.9%, respectively, as he’s able to throw it for a whiff in any count.
Imanaga gets more fastball whiffs than most, but his swinging strike rate with the pitch is a far cry from Jared Jones’ league-leading 20.1%. To be the most valuable pitch in baseball, Imanaga’s fastball has to work even when he’s not blowing it past hitters. And at first glance, you might think that a low-90s heater that lives in the zone would get sent a long way when batters connect with it. Indeed, homers were the one knock on Imanaga’s game in NPB, as his 2.9% homer rate (1.04 HR/9) last year was highest in the league in a deadened offensive environment. But he’s allowed just three homers across his seven MLB starts, and the Statcast data indicate this low total is more a product of skill than luck.
Fastball Contact Quality Metrics:
Statistic Value Percentile
wOBA .189 98th
xwOBA .279 85th
Barrel Rate 7.6% 66th
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
I’m not saying that a 0.65 HR/9 represents Imanaga’s true talent (ZiPS forecasts a 0.94 mark for the rest of the year), and it’s certainly likely that the results will regress toward his xwOBA as the season goes on, but he’s clearly been keeping pitches away from barrels at an above-average clip, a skill that many evaluators were skeptical of as he made the leap to MLB. Part of this is due to his fastball’s shape – a flat VAA can lead to uncomfortable swings and produce weak outs. While this type of fastball does contribute to a high fly ball rate, opponents haven’t been able to put a charge into their aerial hits thus far. Imanaga’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rates allowed sit around the league average, but his exit velocity allowed on batted balls in the air is a much more favorable 70th percentile. He also has the ninth-lowest line drive rate among qualified starters, almost never allowing squared-up contact.
Imanaga also locates his fastball in places unlikely to produce barrels. Sure, he throws more heaters in the zone than almost anyone else, but he’s not just sending them down Broadway and hoping for the best; instead, he’s consistently hitting his spots at the top edge of the zone. He ranks 10th in fastballs thrown in the upper third of the zone, an area where the flatness of the pitch can play up and create the illusion that it’s rising. Unsurprisingly, his Kirby Index, a stat that measures release angle consistency, ranks in the 90th percentile.
Imanaga’s fastball alone has made him one of the most effective pitchers in the league, and I haven’t even talked about his plus splitter yet. Like the fastball, this is a pitch he throws with remarkable accuracy. Splitters are hard to command – many pitchers’ splitter heatmaps look like giant blobs, and nearly 14% of splitters are wasted, the second highest of any pitch type. But Imanaga repeatedly hits the area at the bottom of and just below the strike zone, an optimal spot for success. His splitter has a 108 Location+ and 57 PitchingBot command grade, both among the league’s highest.
From a pure shape perspective, Imanaga’s splitter doesn’t particularly stand out. It doesn’t have absurd lateral movement like Kevin Gausman’s or fall off the table like Jordan Hicks’; Imanaga’s actually drops a few inches less than average. But when paired with his high fastball, that splitter becomes downright nasty. Thrown from the same release point and angle as his heater, Imanaga’s splitter gets hitters to swing at what they think is a meaty fastball before they have time to realize that the pitch is 9 mph slower and 19 inches lower. He throws it only about half as often as his heater, saving the split for two-strike counts where hitters are in swing mode. And swing they do, coming up empty nearly half the time they offer at it. The end result is that Imanaga’s splitter is one of the best whiff pitches in the league.
Best Whiff Pitches in Baseball:
Name Pitch Type Whiff%
Tarik Skubal Changeup 49.5%
Shota Imanaga Splitter 47.7%
Cole Ragans Changeup 45.7%
Dylan Cease Slider 45.6%
Luis Castillo Slider 43.0%
Logan Gilbert Slider 42.9%
Jared Jones Slider 41.7%
Cristopher Sánchez Changeup 41.7%
Jack Flaherty Slider 41.3%
Michael King Changeup 41.1%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant (min. 50 PA)
The splitter has also been integral in maintaining Imanaga’s minuscule walk rate, as hitters swing and miss at them before they can work themselves into deep counts. Opponents have swung at 47.2% of the out-of-zone splitters he’s thrown, a huge reason his overall chase rate nearly tops the charts. His low walk rate and refusal to waste pitches has worked wonders in terms of efficiency, averaging the sixth-fewest pitches per inning among qualified starters. Imanaga’s quick work of opposing lineups has allowed him to pitch deep into games (averaging six innings per start) while acclimating to more frequent outings as part of a five-man rotation.
Just a month into his MLB career, Imanaga has exceeded all expectations and emerged as an ace. His brilliant pitch execution hasn’t just proven what he can be at his best, they’ve also calmed concerns about what his downside risk can look like. When he signed, it was easy for skeptics to compare him to other hurlers without big velocity and forecast doubt. But Imanaga has shown that nobody else pitches the way he does.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shota-imana ... ke-an-ace/
Shota Imanaga’s Stat Rankings:
K% BB% ERA xERA FIP
18th 4th 1st 4th 8th
out of 79 qualified pitchers
Through his first seven starts, Imanaga has allowed just five earned runs, fewest among qualified pitchers. He’s been downright dominant through much of this stretch, proving his stuff is up to major league standards while controlling the strike zone better than almost anyone else. But he’s done so differently than other top pitching talents. Let’s take a look at his pitch arsenal.
From a quick glance at the stat sheet, the first thing that catches my eye is the sheer frequency with which Imanaga uses his fastball. In an era where nearly two-thirds of starters throw non-fastballs a majority of the time, Imanaga’s 58.4% usage (91st percentile) stands out. As pointed out by MLB.com’s David Adler, Imanaga’s heater has been the best individual pitch in baseball by run value, beating out Corbin Burnes’ notorious cutter Tyler Glasnow’s frightening fastball. But while the other heaters at the top of this list sit in the mid- to upper-90s, Imanaga’s four-seamer averages just 92 mph.
The list of starters who sit at 92 or below is rather short, and mostly consists of names that we certainly don’t think of as strikeout artists. In his piece, Adler noted that Imanaga’s fastball has elite induced vertical break (IVB). But carry alone doesn’t always make a fastball effective; Triston McKenzie’s four-seamer, which currently leads the league in fastball IVB, has the highest xwOBA allowed of any such pitch (min. 50 plate appearances). Rather, what makes Imanaga’s offering so special is its plus movement in combination with its ultra-low release point.
Pitchers like McKenzie and Ross Stripling throw from high, over-the-top arm slots, making their backspin (and thus vertical movement) predictable for hitters. In contrast, Imanaga’s delivery from a low three-quarters slot creates a movement profile much different than what you’d expect from his arm angle. Earlier this week, Michael Rosen broke down the biomechanics of Imanaga’s ability to spin the ball so well from an outlier release point, showing how his hip and lower-body flexibility enable him to “get behind” the ball and create backspin. Throughout the league, no starter gets a higher IVB than Imanaga does from such a low release point – those throwing from lower slots are primarily sidearmers whose deliveries generate run at the expense of carry, while the only two hurlers with more IVB (min. 250 four-seamers), McKenzie and Tyler Anderson, have release points about a foot higher.
Because of its low release point and high carry, Imanaga’s four-seamer has the third-shallowest vertical approach angle in baseball, creating the deception that causes batters to swing under it with surprising frequency. Its 12.5% swinging strike rate and 22.1% putaway rate easily exceed the league averages of 10.3% and 17.9%, respectively, as he’s able to throw it for a whiff in any count.
Imanaga gets more fastball whiffs than most, but his swinging strike rate with the pitch is a far cry from Jared Jones’ league-leading 20.1%. To be the most valuable pitch in baseball, Imanaga’s fastball has to work even when he’s not blowing it past hitters. And at first glance, you might think that a low-90s heater that lives in the zone would get sent a long way when batters connect with it. Indeed, homers were the one knock on Imanaga’s game in NPB, as his 2.9% homer rate (1.04 HR/9) last year was highest in the league in a deadened offensive environment. But he’s allowed just three homers across his seven MLB starts, and the Statcast data indicate this low total is more a product of skill than luck.
Fastball Contact Quality Metrics:
Statistic Value Percentile
wOBA .189 98th
xwOBA .279 85th
Barrel Rate 7.6% 66th
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
I’m not saying that a 0.65 HR/9 represents Imanaga’s true talent (ZiPS forecasts a 0.94 mark for the rest of the year), and it’s certainly likely that the results will regress toward his xwOBA as the season goes on, but he’s clearly been keeping pitches away from barrels at an above-average clip, a skill that many evaluators were skeptical of as he made the leap to MLB. Part of this is due to his fastball’s shape – a flat VAA can lead to uncomfortable swings and produce weak outs. While this type of fastball does contribute to a high fly ball rate, opponents haven’t been able to put a charge into their aerial hits thus far. Imanaga’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rates allowed sit around the league average, but his exit velocity allowed on batted balls in the air is a much more favorable 70th percentile. He also has the ninth-lowest line drive rate among qualified starters, almost never allowing squared-up contact.
Imanaga also locates his fastball in places unlikely to produce barrels. Sure, he throws more heaters in the zone than almost anyone else, but he’s not just sending them down Broadway and hoping for the best; instead, he’s consistently hitting his spots at the top edge of the zone. He ranks 10th in fastballs thrown in the upper third of the zone, an area where the flatness of the pitch can play up and create the illusion that it’s rising. Unsurprisingly, his Kirby Index, a stat that measures release angle consistency, ranks in the 90th percentile.
Imanaga’s fastball alone has made him one of the most effective pitchers in the league, and I haven’t even talked about his plus splitter yet. Like the fastball, this is a pitch he throws with remarkable accuracy. Splitters are hard to command – many pitchers’ splitter heatmaps look like giant blobs, and nearly 14% of splitters are wasted, the second highest of any pitch type. But Imanaga repeatedly hits the area at the bottom of and just below the strike zone, an optimal spot for success. His splitter has a 108 Location+ and 57 PitchingBot command grade, both among the league’s highest.
From a pure shape perspective, Imanaga’s splitter doesn’t particularly stand out. It doesn’t have absurd lateral movement like Kevin Gausman’s or fall off the table like Jordan Hicks’; Imanaga’s actually drops a few inches less than average. But when paired with his high fastball, that splitter becomes downright nasty. Thrown from the same release point and angle as his heater, Imanaga’s splitter gets hitters to swing at what they think is a meaty fastball before they have time to realize that the pitch is 9 mph slower and 19 inches lower. He throws it only about half as often as his heater, saving the split for two-strike counts where hitters are in swing mode. And swing they do, coming up empty nearly half the time they offer at it. The end result is that Imanaga’s splitter is one of the best whiff pitches in the league.
Best Whiff Pitches in Baseball:
Name Pitch Type Whiff%
Tarik Skubal Changeup 49.5%
Shota Imanaga Splitter 47.7%
Cole Ragans Changeup 45.7%
Dylan Cease Slider 45.6%
Luis Castillo Slider 43.0%
Logan Gilbert Slider 42.9%
Jared Jones Slider 41.7%
Cristopher Sánchez Changeup 41.7%
Jack Flaherty Slider 41.3%
Michael King Changeup 41.1%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant (min. 50 PA)
The splitter has also been integral in maintaining Imanaga’s minuscule walk rate, as hitters swing and miss at them before they can work themselves into deep counts. Opponents have swung at 47.2% of the out-of-zone splitters he’s thrown, a huge reason his overall chase rate nearly tops the charts. His low walk rate and refusal to waste pitches has worked wonders in terms of efficiency, averaging the sixth-fewest pitches per inning among qualified starters. Imanaga’s quick work of opposing lineups has allowed him to pitch deep into games (averaging six innings per start) while acclimating to more frequent outings as part of a five-man rotation.
Just a month into his MLB career, Imanaga has exceeded all expectations and emerged as an ace. His brilliant pitch execution hasn’t just proven what he can be at his best, they’ve also calmed concerns about what his downside risk can look like. When he signed, it was easy for skeptics to compare him to other hurlers without big velocity and forecast doubt. But Imanaga has shown that nobody else pitches the way he does.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shota-imana ... ke-an-ace/
