IBC

From MLB Pipeline's 2023 ROY Candidates by Team: https://www.mlb.com/news/rookie-of-the- ... e-coverage

Red Sox: Triston Casas, 1B (No. 2/MLB No. 25)
Casas gave a preview of coming attractions in September, when he flashed his power and patience with five homers and 19 walks in 27 games, and he'll improve upon his .197 batting average in the future. The 2018 first-rounder from a Florida high school stands out most with his pop, but his hitting ability, approach and defense are also impressive

Tigers: Joey Wentz, LHP (No. 24)
Which Wentz will we see in 2023? The 25-year-old left-hander looked good down the stretch for Detroit, posting a 1.73 ERA over his last five starts (26 innings) in September and October, before adding three scoreless appearances in the Arizona Fall League. But he hasn’t thrown more than 72 innings in a season since 2019 due to 2020 Tommy John surgery and a shoulder problem this summer. If he’s healthy all season, he should get enough starting opportunities to be a ROY threat.

Twins: Matt Wallner, OF (No. 5)
Wallner’s carrying tool is his power (though he also has a hose for an arm), and it carried him across two levels of the Minors and up to Minnesota in 2022. He hit 27 homers and slugged .541 in the Minors before adding two more home runs in the big leagues. There’s going to be swing-and-miss, but it’s going to be fun watching how his power plays over a full season.

Astros: Hunter Brown, RHP (No. 1/MLB No. 68)
After posting a 2.55 ERA, a .185 opponent average and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A -- all of which would have easily led the Pacific Coast League if he hadn't fallen just short of qualifying -- Brown allowed just two runs in 20 1/3 regular-season innings with Houston and worked 3 2/3 scoreless frames in the postseason. His mid-90s fastball that reaches 99 mph couples with his power curveball that falls off the table to give the 2019 fifth-rounder from Wayne State (Mich.) the upside to pitch in the front half of a rotation.

Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B (No. 1/MLB No. 36)
Jung would have been a prime 2022 Rookie of the Year contender if he hadn't torn the labrum in his left shoulder while lifting weights in February, sidelining him until late July and delaying his big league debut until September. The No. 8 overall pick in the 2019 Draft from Texas Tech is an all-around hitter with a career .311/.381/.538 line in the Minors, and he slugged five homers in 26 games with the Rangers.

Giants: Kyle Harrison, LHP (No. 2/MLB No. 21)
The game's best left-handed pitching prospect, Harrison topped the Minors in strikeout rate (14.8 per nine innings) and strikeout percentage (39. while compiling a 2.71 ERA, .196 opponent average and 186 strikeouts in 113 innings between High-A and Double-A. A third-round pick who signed for first-round money ($2,497,500) as a California high schooler in 2020, he owns a mid-90s fastball with plenty of arm-side run and a power mid-80s slider.

Been a bit lazy..time to play a bit of catch-up here.

From BA's NL East Top 10 Lists:

Marlins: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
9. Peyton Burdick | OF
Born: Feb 26, 1997
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'0" Wt.: 205
Drafted/Signed: Wright State, 2019 (3rd round).
Signed By: Nate Adcock.
Minors: .214/.326/.409 | 15 HR | 13 SB | 364 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: Burdick's strong junior campaign at Wright State resulted in both the Horizon League's player of the year award and a third-round selection in the 2019 draft. The pandemic's shutdown of the 2020 season meant that Burdick had to wait until 2021 for his full-season debut, which came at Double-A Pensacola in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Despite the unfriendly atmosphere, Burdick slammed 23 home runs—which tied for the SL lead—before earning a late-season promotion. He returned to Triple-A in 2022 and made his major league debut on Aug. 5. He swatted four home runs in 92 big league at-bats before being sent back to Triple-A.

Scouting Report: Burdick's calling card is his power, which showed up in an average exit velocity of 90 mph during his short stint in the big leagues. To get to that power more often, he'll need to improve his approach. If he tries to use the whole field, he'll likely see big improvements in all aspects of his offensive game. If he continues to focus on trying to hit balls out to the pull side, he'll likely fit more into a power-over-hit profile. He also showed an extreme platoon split in the minors, where he hit just .186 against righthanders over 242 at-bats. Defensively, scouts are split on where he'll wind up. He played all three spots during his time in Miami, with a heavy emphasis on both center and left field. His speed should give him a chance in center field, but scouts differ on whether he can stick at that position.

The Future: Burdick will have a good shot to make the big league roster out of spring training. If not, he'll head back to Triple-A Jacksonville for more seasoning. He likely fits as a second-division regular or a backup on a championship-caliber club.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 40. Power: 55. Speed: 50. Fielding: 50. Arm: 55

Nationals: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
5. Brady House | SS
Born: Jun 4, 2003
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'4" Wt.: 215
Signed By: Eric Robinson
Minors: .278/.356/.375 | 3 HR | 1 SB | 176 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: When the Nationals drafted House 11th overall in 2021, they were getting what many believed was one of the top high school prospects. House had loud offensive tools, led by explosive raw power that some scouts projected to double-plus grades. House made frequent quality contact in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League after signing for $5 million. His second season did not go as planned. Assigned to Low-A Fredericksburg in 2022, House hit .303/.386/.420 with three home runs through his first 30 games. He made almost no impact after that--.228 with no homers--while dealing with a back injury and a bout with Covid. The Nationals shut House down for the remainder of the season in early June and expect him to be ready for minor league spring training in 2023.

Scouting Report: The loudest tool in House's set is his raw power. He looks and acts the part of a large slugger, standing in at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. House has shown an ability to hit to all fields with authority since his debut, but he struggled hitting high velocity in 2022. He looked very raw at the plate at times, which calls into question his hitting ability, but the Nationals aren't panicking. House has a strong ability to recognize pitches and has a good feel for the zone. House was a 50/50 bet to stick at shortstop even before the Nationals traded for CJ Abrams. House has sure hands and a good internal clock that compensates for ordinary range. His plus arm will fit at third base if he slides over.

The Future: House's back injury is a giant mitigating factor when it comes to explaining his low exit velocities in his first full season. A full, healthy season should give House the reps to address the hit tool concerns and regain his power.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 50. Power: 65. Speed: 50. Fielding: 55. Arm: 60

BA's AL East Lists:

Red Sox: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... 023&type=P
2. Triston Casas | 1B
Born: Jan 15, 2000
Bats: L Throws: R
Ht.: 6'5" Wt.: 245
Drafted/Signed: HS--Plantation, Fla., 2018 (1st round).
Signed By: Willie Romay.
Minors: .281/.389/.500 | 12 HR | 0 SB | 278 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: Neighbors of Casas' American Heritage High program were notified to move their cars during batting practice to shield property from a hail of tape-measure homers. Yet raw power was only part of Casas' game. He impressed both in high school and for 16U and 18U Team USA squads with an advanced, all-fields approach en route to being the 26th overall pick in 2018. He signed for slot bonus of $2.55 million. In 2021, Casas became a middle-of-the-order hitter for Team USA in the Olympics. In 2022, despite a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for two months with Triple-A Worcester, he tapped into increased power and made his MLB debut.

Scouting Report: Casas is a formidable presence in the batter's box, with long levers that allow him to obliterate baseballs. Whereas in 2021 he focused foremost on contact and getting on base--often widening his stance and choking up significantly--in 2022, he hunted pitches to damage. He became more upright even with two strikes. While he maintained his characteristic plate discipline, he swung with bad intentions, showing significant jumps in exit velocities. In his MLB debut, he hit .197/.358/.408 but showed a sophisticated ability to gameplan and control the zone (20% walk rate) with considerable opposite-field power. There's some platoon risk with Casas, though he had quality left-on-left at-bats in the big leagues. Defensively, he moved well around the bag and showed a good arm.

The Future: Casas will either open 2023 in the big leagues or get there--likely permanently--by early to midseason. He could emerge as a middle-of-the-order force who takes aim at the Green Monster for years to come.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55. Power: 65. Speed: 30. Fielding: 55. Arm: 50

4. Miguel Bleis | OF
Born: Mar 1, 2004
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 180
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2021.
Signed By: Eddie Romero/Manny Nanita
Minors: .301/.353/.542 | 5 HR | 18 SB | 153 AB
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Track Record: Bleis stood out as a five-tool talent who possessed what the Red Sox considered �extreme bat life� when they signed him for $1.5 million in January 2021. That was Boston's highest bonus amount for a player out of the Dominican Republic since signing Rafael Devers for the same amount in 2013. Bleis made a solid pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2021, hitting .252/.331/.420 with four homers, then delivered an electrifying performance in the Florida Complex League in 2022 in which he showed shoot-the-moon talent. He would have been promoted to Low-A Salem had it not been for lower back tightness in mid August.

Scouting Report: Bleis mesmerized scouts with his tremendous talent in every facet of the game. When he barrels balls, he makes resounding contact, resulting in huge exit velocities that ranked atop the FCL, and he showed the ability to handle fastballs of any velocity. His strikeout rate was high at nearly 27%--a red flag for some organizations--largely due to swings and misses on breaking balls, and his 6% walk rate likewise points to a free-swinger. But Bleis is young enough that he has a chance to improve his swing decisions and emerge as an average or better hitter, with work he did to clean up a barrel drop in 2022 offering optimism about his adaptability. His speed is currently plus or better, giving him a buffer even as he continues to fill out. He's a glider in center field, with instincts that suggest he could become an above-average defender at the position or a standout in right.

The Future: Bleis has one of the highest ceilings in the Red Sox system. His hit tool will determine how close he comes to scraping it. He's so far from the big leagues that no solid floor is apparent, but there's electrifying all-star potential.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 50. Power: 65. Speed: 60. Fielding: 60. Arm: 60


Yankees: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
3. Jasson Dominguez | OF
Born: Feb 7, 2003
Bats: B Throws: R
Ht.: 5'10" Wt.: 210
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2019.
Signed By: Juan Rosario/Lorenzo Piron/Edgar Mateo.
Minors: .273/.375/.461 | 16 HR | 37 SB | 451 AB
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Track Record: After signing for $5.1 million in 2019, Dominguez’s official pro debut was delayed a year by the pandemic. He had spurts of success as one of the youngest players in the Low-A Florida State League in 2021. He returned to the level in 2022 but finished the year in Double-A, where he helped Somerset win the Eastern League crown. Dominguez has made each of the last two Futures Games and hit a long home run at Dodger Stadium in 2022.

Scouting Report: Dominguez’s season got better as the year went on, in terms of both public and private evaluation methods. From June 1 forward, he hit .273/.389/.464. That period also included 11 of his 16 home runs, which speaks to the Yankees’ efforts to get him to hit the ball in the air more often. He also worked hard to improve his swing decisions. Even during Dominguez’s early struggles with Low-A Tampa to open the season, scouts believed he was recognizing pitches well but still swinging at ones he couldn’t impact. As that aspect of his game improved, Dominguez’s season got better. Now, he’s got the potential to be at least an above-average hitter with plus power. He has a chance to stick in center field and be average at the position. A lot will depend on how his body develops as he matures. Dominguez is strong and compact rather than the lithe athletes who typically hold down center. Still, scouts see a player whose above-average speed, as well as excellent reads and jumps, could allow him to stay in center field even if he’s unlikely to be a standout. His arm strength is above-average and would play in right field if necessary.

The Future: After a cameo at Double-A and a stint in the Arizona Fall League, Dominguez will spend all of 2023 as a 20-year-old at the upper levels.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 55 Power: 60 Speed: 55 Fielding: 50 Arm: 55

BA's NL Central Lists:

Brewers: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
5. Garrett Mitchell | OF
Born: Sep 4, 1998
Bats: L Throws: R
Ht.: 6'3" Wt.: 215
Drafted/Signed: UCLA, 2020 (1st round).
Signed By: Daniel Cho/Corey Rodriguez.
Minors: .287/.377/.426 | 5 HR | 17 SB | 251 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: The coronavirus pandemic cut short Mitchell's junior year in 2020 after he hit .349/.418/.566 the previous season for UCLA. The Brewers drafted him 20th overall in 2020, and while injuries have limited his playing time as a pro, he made his major league debut in 2022 at the end of August.

Scouting Report: Mitchell has unusual size, athleticism and tools. He's a powerful, explosive 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and catches infielders off guard with elite speed. If everything clicks, Mitchell could be a power-speed threat, with raw power in batting practice that grades out at least plus and the ability to make some of the hardest contact in the organization. The question is whether Mitchell will be able to evolve his swing and approach to ever tap into that power. He uses a choppy, downhill swing geared to slap the ball and use his wheels rather than drive the ball in the air for damage. Mitchell has made some tweaks to his setup, but his swing path and attack angle prevent him from hitting for power. He has solid patience, but his strikeout rate--26% in the minors in 2022--is also on the higher end, especially without accompanying game power. Mitchell's speed translates to elite range in center field to go with his plus arm, giving him the attributes to be an at least plus defender. A leg injury limited Mitchell in 2021 and an oblique injury caused him to miss time in 2022, so he will have to prove his durability.

The Future: If Mitchell is able to unlock his power in games, he has the upside to significantly outperform expectations. There's considerable risk that he's able to do so, but his defensive ability in center offers a safety net in the event he is able to hit enough to warrant everyday play at the bottom of a lineup.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 45. Power: 50. Speed: 80. Fielding: 60. Arm: 60

8. Tyler Black | 2B/OF
Born: Jul 26, 2000
Bats: L Throws: R
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 190
Signed By: Pete Vuckovich Jr.
Minors: .281/.406/.424 | 4 HR | 13 SB | 231 AB
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Track Record: At Wright State in 2021, Black hit.383/.496/.683 with 39 walks and 25 strikeouts and became the 33rd overall pick in the draft. He showed off his on-base skills in his first full season with High-A Wisconsin in 2022 until July, when he made a diving catch in center field and fractured his scapula, ending his regular season. He went to the Arizona Fall League but that too ended prematurely when he broke his thumb sliding into second base.

Scouting Report: Black is the most disciplined hitter in the Brewers' farm system. He's extremely patient, works deep counts and rarely chases outside the strike zone. With a setup at the plate reminiscent of fellow Canadian Joey Votto, Black makes frequent contact with a quick swing. He keeps his hands inside the ball well and maintains an all-fields approach, enabling him to turn on balls inner third or use the opposite field when pitchers attack him away. Black's swing path is geared for low-trajectory line drives and there are times when he could try to be more aggressive trying to swing for extra-base damage, but his power ultimately grades as below-average. Black is an offensive-oriented player in search of a defensive home. He's a good athlete and a slightly above-average runner whose footwork, range and below-average arm make him below-average at second base. He also plays center field and should continue to see time in the outfield. But at any position he's probably always going to be below-average. Black also had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder in 2020, so his durability bears monitoring.

The Future: If Black can squeeze out more extra-base juice and become an adequate defender somewhere—or possibly a bat-first utility player—he has the components to be an everyday player with high on-base percentages. He should move up to Double-A Biloxi in 2023.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 55. Power: 40. Speed: 55. Fielding: 40. Arm: 40

10. Robert Gasser | LHP
Born: May 31, 1999
Bats: L Throws: L
Ht.: 6'1" Wt.: 190
Signed By: Kevin Ham.
Minors: 7-12 | 3.94 ERA | 172 SO | 52 BB | 137 IP
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Track Record: Gasser pitched for New Mexico in 2018 and transferred to pitch at Houston in 2020, but the pandemic ended that season early. His stock soared in 2022 as he showed more velocity and significantly improved performance, prompting the Padres to draft him in the second round and sign him for $884,200. In the midst of Gasser’s first full season of pro ball, the Brewers acquired him in the trade deadline deal that sent Josh Hader to San Diego.

Scouting Report: Gasser throws a 50/50 mix of fastballs and offspeed stuff, mainly relying on his fastball and slider. Pitching from the third base side of the rubber, Gasser isn’t overpowering, sitting at 89-93 mph with the ability to reach back for 95. His low-80s slider is his most effective pitch, a tick above-average offering around 2,600 rpm that sweeps across the zone with 15 inches of horizontal break to miss bats against lefties or righties. He’ll mix in a shorter cutter as well to try to get soft contact against righthanded hitters. Gasser’s average changeup comes in firm off his fastball in the mid 80s, but it has good movement with 18 inches of horizontal break, giving him another weapon against righties. Gasser has generally shown good control, though his walk rate spiked when he got to Triple-A.

The Future: Gasser has the stuff and control to project as a back-end starter. He likely opens 2023 back in Triple-A, but he could be an early callup option if a big league opportunity opens.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50. Slider: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 50


Pirates: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
7. Liover Peguero | SS
Born: Dec 31, 2000
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'1" Wt.: 160
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2017.
Signed By: Cesar Geronimo (D-backs).
Minors: .259/.305/.387 | 10 HR | 28 SB | 483 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: Peguero made his unlikely MLB debut in 2022, three years after the Pirates acquired him alongside Brennan Malone in a deal for Starling Marte. He raced to a .784 OPS in his first 54 games with Double-A Altoona in 2022 and was just a two-hour drive away from Pittsburgh when the club needed a last-minute replacement after Tucupita Marcano tested positive for Covid on June 17. The Pirates called up Peguero and he debuted a day later. It was the high-water mark of Peguero's season. He put up a .612 OPS in 67 games upon returning to Altoona.

Scouting Report: Peguero bundles an array of intriguing traits but doesn't always blend them together. He has a chance to become an above-average hitter thanks to impressive bat-to-ball skills and lightning-quick hands. His penchant for hard-hit balls allows for average power potential, though his swing isn't necessarily geared for lift. Peguero continues to work on optimizing his bat path to keep his barrel in the zone longer. More advanced pitchers exploited his aggressive approach at times in 2022 by peppering him with breaking balls, and his 5.6% walk rate was one of the lowest in the system. Some wondered whether Peguero carried those struggles into the field. He's prone to bouts of wildness and struggled with his throwing mechanics, making the most throwing errors of any infielder in the system. Still, the ingredients remain for a future plus defender. Peguero turns in his share of dazzling plays, thanks to a plus throwing arm, soft hands and sizable range. He is a plus runner who stole 28 bases in 2022.

The Future: Peguero will be just 22 years old on Opening Day. He has the ceiling of a first-division shortstop if everything comes together.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 55. Power: 50. Speed: 55. Fielding: 55. Arm: 50

BA's AL Central Lists:

Twins: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
6. Matt Wallner | OF
Born: Dec 12, 1997
Bats: L Throws: R
Ht.: 6'5" Wt.: 220
Drafted/Signed: Southern Mississippi, 2019 (1st round supplemental).
Signed By: Derrick Dunbar.
Minors: .277/.412/.541 | 27 HR | 9 SB | 458 AB
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Track Record: A Minnesota native and Twins draftee out of high school, Wallner committed to North Dakota, where he would have likely been the team's best hitter and pitcher as a true freshman. The school dropped its baseball program and Wallner ended up at Southern Mississippi, where he became the Baseball America Freshman of the Year in 2017. The Twins drafted him again in 2019. After a solid 2021 season, Wallner broke out in 2022 as he climbed three levels and made his MLB debut. He totaled 30 home runs between the minors and majors.

Scouting Report: Wallner's plus-plus arm is the bane of third base coaches. He can turn what seem like easy send decisions into outs where the baserunner never even got a chance to slide. He had 13 assists in 2022, and he topped out at 100.3 mph on throws in his brief MLB stint. Wallner's plus-plus power is nearly as impressive. He hits screaming line drives and mammoth home runs. His nearly 94 mph average exit velocity was among the best in the minors in 2022. Among MLB hitters with 25 or more balls in play, his 53% hard-hit percentage ranked 10th out of 565 batters. The catch? Wallner has significant swing-and-miss issues. His selectivity isn't an issue as much as his swing. Wallner's lofted, lengthy bat path translates to swings and misses in the strike zone. That's the tradeoff he has made to get to his big power. He's a well-below-average hitter, but one who could hit 35 home runs in a full season.

The Future: Wallner's power and arm are top tier, but he faces questions about whether he will make enough contact to get to his exceptional power. The hope is that he is a streaky Joc Pederson type of slugger with low batting averages and big power. He heads to spring training with a shot at a big league role.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 30. Power: 70. Run: 55. Fielding: 45. Arm: 70

BA's NL West Lists:

Giants: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
2. Kyle Harrison | LHP
Born: Aug 12, 2001
Bats: L Throws: L
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 200
Drafted/Signed: HS--Concord, Calif., 2020 (3rd round).
Signed By: Keith Snider.
Minors: 4-3 | 2.71 ERA | 186 SO | 49 BB | 113 IP
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: The Giants went over slot to sign Harrison for $2,497,500 in the third round in 2020 to sway him from his commitment to UCLA. The athletic lefthander immediately rewarded the Giants' faith, first by dominating during instructional league, then by taking the Low-A California League by storm in his pro debut in 2021. His 157 strikeouts were the most in the Cal League and tied him for eighth overall in the minor leagues. He upped the ante in 2022, when his 186 strikeouts were second in the minors only to the D-backs' Brandon Pfaadt. He split the year between High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond, with a stop at the Futures Game as well.

Scouting Report: Harrison's three-pitch mix is one of the nastiest in the minor leagues. He starts with a mid-90s four-seam fastball that peaked at 97 mph and got swings and misses at an absurd rate of 40.5%, the highest among any minor leaguer who threw 1,000 or more four-seamers. The pitch, along with the rest of his arsenal, is amplified by the deception created in his delivery and an extremely low release point. Harrison's slider was equally nasty. The low-80s sweeper was the better of his two offspeed pitches and was thrown for a strike more often than either his fastball or changeup. Harrison rounds out his mix with a still-developing changeup with plenty of upside. Part of his development in 2022 was centered around improving his changeup, and ideally the Giants would like him throw it between 10 and 20% of the time. Harrison's delivery is a double-edged sword. The elasticity of his body allows him to create funky angles for hitters but also gives him below-average command.

The Future: Harrison will likely head to Triple-A to begin 2023, and he has a ceiling of a starter who can dominate at the top of a rotation.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 45

From BA's AL West Lists:

Astros: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
1. Hunter Brown | RHP
Born: Aug 29, 1998
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 203
Drafted/Signed: Wayne State, 2019 (5th round).
Signed By: Scott Oberhelman.
Minors: 9-4 | 2.55 ERA | 134 SO | 45 BB | 106 IP
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: The Astros drafted Brown in the fifth round in 2019 and signed him for an above-slot $325,000 following a breakout season at Division II Wayne State in Detroit. Brown debuted that summer in the short-season New York-Penn League then missed 2020 because of the pandemic. He jumped straight to Double-A Corpus Christi when play resumed in 2021 and reached Triple-A Sugar Land in early August. Brown made 11 Triple-A appearances over the final two months of the season and struck out 55 batters in 51 innings. He returned to Sugar Land to begin 2022 and made 23 appearances, alternating time as a traditional starter and a bulk pitcher behind an opener. Brown showed improved command of his powerful arsenal as he posted a career best strikeout-to-walk ratio and was selected to pitch in the Futures Game. The Astros called up Brown in early September and he joined his childhood hero Justin Verlander as a member of the Astros staff. He was selected for the Astros' postseason roster and made three appearances between the Division Series and the Championship Series. Brown was included on Houston's World Series roster but did not appear in a game.

Scouting Report: Few define the modern pitcher archetype like Brown, who is a tall righthander with a muscular build and above-average athleticism. He works from a semi-windup with a longer arm action and delivers pitches from an over-the-top release. Brown in many ways mimics the operation of former Astros teammate Justin Verlander, whom he grew up watching in Detroit. In this way, Brown, like Verlander, is able to fluidly generate power across his pitch mix. Brown's arsenal consists of four pitches with his four-seam fastball and two breaking-ball shapes working as his primary repertoire. His fastball sits 95-97 mph and touches 100. It plays up even further because of efficient backspin and an unusually flat plane from his high arm slot. Brown uses two breaking balls with distinctively different shapes in a low-90s slider/cutter hybrid and a low-to-mid-80s curveball with significant depth. Each of Brown's breaking pitches succeeds for different reasons. His ability to command his slider in and out of the zone drives mis-hits and chase swings, while his curveball depth plays perfectly off of his four-seam shape. This allows Brown to dominate with a north-south plan of attack. He'll mix in an upper-80s changeup, but it was rarely used. Brown's command bumped to average in 2022.

The Future: A power pitcher capable of succeeding in a variety of roles, Brown is poised to claim a rotation spot for the reigning World Series champion Astros in 2023.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70. Curveball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 45. Control: 50

7. Korey Lee | C
Born: Jul 25, 1998
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 210
Drafted/Signed: California, 2019 (1st round).
Signed By: Tom Costic.
Minors: .238/.307/.483 | 25 HR | 12 SB | 404 AB
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Track Record: Lee was a surprise first-rounder when the Astros drafted him out of California with the 32nd overall pick in 2019. He debuted in the short-season New York-Penn League out of the draft and then missed 2020 due to the pandemic. Lee emerged as a better player after making adjustments to both his swing and catching setup during the time off. When he reached full-season ball in 2021, he hit .277/.340/.438 across three levels and ranked as the Astros' No. 1 prospect heading into 2022. Lee reached Triple-A Sugar Land in 2022 but hit just .238/.307/.483 in 104 games. Called up in late June, he spent the month of July with the major league club.

Scouting Report: Lee's profile and prospect status has been heavily boosted by his defensive skills behind the plate. After flashing an average combination of contact and approach in 2021, Lee's bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions backed up in favor of a more power-centric approach. The change resulted in inconsistent production from Lee. His total of 25 home runs was a nice step up in slugging, but his overall line was below-average for the Pacific Coast League. Once a hit-over-power profile, Lee now hunts power at the plate with a lofted swing. His power plays average. Behind the plate, Lee is far more of a sure thing, with a variety of average-to-plus skills. He is a an average framer based on the team's internal metrics, an above-average blocker and a true 80-grade thrower. Lee's arm is a real weapon against the running game. He is able to nab basestealers at a high rate with powerful and accurate throws, consistently clocking elite pop times on throws to second base.

The Future: Lee is a defense-first catcher with the ability to contribute about 15-20 home runs.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 40. Power: 50. Speed: 40. Fielding: 55. Arm: 80


Rangers: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... izational/
3. Josh Jung | 3B
Born: Feb 12, 1998
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'2" Wt.: 215
Drafted/Signed: Texas Tech, 2019 (1st round).
Signed By: Josh Simpson.
Minors: .266/.326/.540 | 9 HR | 1 SB | 124 AB
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: When Jung stays healthy, he hits. Unfortunately, he's had serious trouble staying on the field since being drafted eighth overall out of Texas Tech in 2019. After earning co-Big 12 Conference player of the year honors in his draft season, Jung signed for $4.4 million, then spent what would have been his first full season as a pro at the Rangers' alternate training site in 2020. A broken foot limited him to 78 games in 2021 and shoulder surgery delayed the start of his 2022 season until July 28. Nonetheless, he recovered in time to make his big league debut on Sept. 9. He hit five home runs in 26 games, including one against 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray.

Scouting Report: The 2022 season was the first time Jung showed real weakness at the plate. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, he struck out 74 times against just 11 walks. He was extremely aggressive during his time in the minor leagues, swinging nearly half the time and missing on pitches in the zone around 20% of the time. Rangers officials believe Jung was pressing a little bit and expect him to look a bit more like himself with further experience. That's especially true considering injuries and the pandemic have limited him to just 777 plate appearances in three seasons. Jung is mostly steady at third base but struggles on hard shots hit his way. He's got the body control and agility to make accurate throws from a variety of angles, which mitigates his below-average arm strength. He's a below-average runner.

The Future: The Rangers have the middle infield locked up for a long while, but they have a vacancy at third base. Jung will battle with Ezequiel Duran for the spot, but first base is an option, too.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 55. Power: 60. Speed: 40. Fielding: 45. Arm: 50

With BA's recently published pre-season 2023 Top Prospects list (https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... prospects/) the Braves find themselves with 6 names on the list, though I would expect a few graduations in short order.

28. Hunter Brown (RHP)
29. Triston Casas (1B)
38. Kyle Harrison (LHP)
66. Josh Jung (3B)
67. Jasson Dominguez (OF)
88. Miguel Bleis (OF)


And on BP's Top 101 (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... e-top-101/) we land 7 prospects, with Garrett Mitchell joining the six who also appeared on BA's list.

20. Kyle Harrison
35. Triston Casas
45. Hunter Brown
62. Garrett Mitchell
63. Jasson Dominguez
67. Miguel Bleis
100. Josh Jung


Adding in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 (https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/). The same top 6 appear with the order jumbled slightly and 5 of the 6 residing in the Top 50.

18. Kyle Harrison
23. Triston Casas
34. Josh Jung
43. Hunter Brown
47. Jasson Dominguez
93. Miguel Bleis

From MLB Pipeline's Top Prospects at Each Position (https://www.mlb.com/news/top-mlb-prospe ... e-coverage)

First base: Triston Casas, Red Sox
Casas never topped 20 homers in a Minor League season, but he creates huge raw pop to all fields with a combination of bat speed, strength and leverage in his massive 6-foot-4 frame. Notably, five of his 15 hits left the yard after he made his MLB debut in 2022. He should hit for both average and power, and even on days when he doesn’t do that, he can still impact the game defensively. All of that is why Boston has cleared out space to make Casas its Opening Day first baseman entering the upcoming season.

Left-handed pitcher: Kyle Harrison, Giants
Harrison projects as a frontline starter thanks to his three-pitch repertoire that includes a well above-average fastball, a sweeping slider and an improving mid-80s changeup with fade and sink. He's still learning to harness his stuff, though his ability to miss bats in the strike zone with all three of his offerings means that he doesn't need to locate them with precision.

From The Athletic's Top 100 Prospects for 2023: https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01 ... ign=601983

Law always seems to throw in some curveballs and that remains the case this year as the IBC Braves placed 8 names on his Top 100 - the last 2 of which were more than a bit surprising (but I'll take it)!

12. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 85 in 2020

Last year’s ranking: 82

Harrison ranked second in minor-league baseball in strikeouts in 2022, a year after he finished ninth while throwing just 98 innings on the season, and he does it with huge stuff and deception and pretty good feel. He’s 92-94 mph, touching 97, with a plus slider at 80-82, showing good shape to the pitch, with the depth of a curveball but the sharpness of a power slider. He has a changeup that flashes average with good bottom, but uses his slider in changeup counts even to right-handers. Harrison has a very deceptive delivery, with a low three-quarter slot and an arm action that keeps the ball behind his body for a long time, although he struggles with timing and his arm can be late relative to his front leg, a potential red flag for future injuries. If he stays healthy, which he has so far in pro ball, this is No. 1 starter stuff, and while it’s not Chris Sale’s body or arm swing, there are definitely enough similarities to think that’s Harrison’s ceiling.

32. Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 190 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019

Last year’s ranking: 78

Is there a bigger example of a “post-hype prospect” than Domínguez? Touted as the next Mickey Mantle as the Yankees gave him their entire international bonus pool when he was 16, he didn’t get to play in a minor-league game until he turned 18 because of the pandemic. He hit a very credible .258/.346/.398 in full-season ball, for Low-A Tampa, in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2021, as one of only three 18-year-olds to get at least 200 plate appearances in the league (along with Alex Ramírez, also on this list). He returned to Tampa this year as a 19-year-old, still young for the level, improved to .265/.373/.440, moved up to High-A Hudson Valley, hit .306/.397/.510 there, and finished with a week in Double-A Somerset. I’ll recap: He started 2022 with 57 games of pro experience, total, and that’s all he had had since signing in July of 2019. He ended up hitting well enough in High A that he would have finished in the top 10 in the Sally League in OBP and slugging if he’d qualified. Why do I get the sense people think he’s a disappointment? And it’s not like he lacks tools — he has electric bat speed, 70 raw power, 70 run, probably 70 defend in center. He does have work to do as a hitter, and during that one week in Double A you could see he needs to learn to adjust to pitchers who can change speeds on him and locate their secondary stuff more than anything he’s seen before. The body is maxed out, but there’s also no need for him to get stronger or develop more power. I see a guy with three plus-plus tools who is the age of a college sophomore and has earned his way to Double A. What’s not to like?

40. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 252 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2018

Last year’s ranking: 56

Casas is a boring prospect, but not in a bad way; he projects as an above-average or better regular at first base and he’s ready to take over in Fenway right now, but he doesn’t have a huge tool, no 80 power or elite defense and definitely not big speed. He’s patient, disciplined, and has very good feel to hit, with hard contact that so far has produced a ton of doubles although there’s no real reason to think he can’t put more of those balls over the fence. Casas is big and very strong; his swing makes excellent use of his upper and lower half as he rotates his hips to get more power from his legs. Boston tried him at third base but let’s just pretend that never happened. He’s a first baseman who rakes, and should be the traditional slugger for that position, hitting for some average with a ton of walks and either 40-odd doubles or 25-plus homers.

56. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 214 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 8 in 2019

Last year’s ranking: 32

So, that wasn’t great. Jung’s major-league debut saw him punch out in 38 percent of his 102 plate appearances, with all of four walks, a .204/.235/.418 line, and without that much hard contact when he did put the bat on the ball. It is a small sample, and Jung missed the first half of the year due to injury, getting into just 23 games in Triple A before he reached the big leagues, and he didn’t look ready there, either. So all of this might be a combination of rust and perhaps the lingering effects of the torn labrum that cost him almost four months. Prior to 2022, Jung’s whole history was making a lot of contact, much of it hard contact, projecting as probably a 55 hit/55 power guy with the chance for either of those to end up at 60 (plus). He’s adequate at third base, but the bat is the thing. In 2022 he suddenly became a swing-first guy, which isn’t his game. I don’t see any reason he would stay that way, especially after failing in his first cup of coffee, but I don’t want to just ignore the 2022 performance because I don’t like what it says. There’s some risk here that wasn’t present a year ago. He could still be an above-average regular at third if he stays healthy and gets back to the approach that made him successful before last season.

72. Miguel Bleis, OF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Bleis is still growing into his frame, but shows exceptional ability to handle the bat, with the potential for huge power and lots of hard contact, and has a chance for every tool to end up above-average. He’s an outstanding athlete who could stay in center depending on how he fills out and whether he stays an above-average runner. Right now he’ll show big raw power, less in games, but it’s clearly coming once he gets stronger and perhaps if he cuts down on some of the extra hand movement he has before he gets the barrel moving towards the zone. He needs to be more selective at the plate, with a little more swing and miss and a little less ball/strike recognition than you’d like, but it also comes with the enormous upside. He actually would be a perfect guy for short-season ball this year if that still existed, and I won’t be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old. The high-average/25 homer upside is still there.

80. Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 166 in 2019

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Brown pitched for Division II Wayne State as an amateur, where he showed big arm strength but below-average command and control, walking 11 percent of batters as a junior even though he was facing lesser competition. His control issues have persisted up through Triple A, as he walked 10.6 percent of batters he faced for Sugar Land, but his stuff has improved since college to the point where he could remain a starter if he can throw enough strikes. Brown is strong and powers through his delivery even with an inconsistent arm stroke, working 94-100 mph with his four-seamer and getting good extension out front to add some deception. He works with both slider and curveball, with ridiculous velocity on the slider but not much spin or break, while his curveball has just average spin but huge vertical break, coming out of his hand with diametrically opposed spin-based direction to his fastball. He barely uses his changeup, but has managed to avoid a platoon split so far just with the fastball and both breaking balls, getting a lot of chases on the latter two pitches. He could be a No. 2 starter if the command and control ever improve, or a workhorse starter who walks 80-plus batters a year, or he might be relegated to the bullpen if he can’t throw enough strikes.

85. Brady House, SS, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: 46

House got off to a roaring start in 2022, hitting .326/.408/.449 with a 25 percent strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in Low A, even though he had just 19 pro games under his belt before the season, but then his back started to give him trouble and he went on the injured list for the first time. He came back for a month but wasn’t the same hitter, as he struck out 33 times with two walks and just four extra-base hits in 100 PA, after which his season ended, on June 11, due to the back injury. House only played shortstop in his limited time on the field in 2022, although it remains extremely unlikely he’ll stay at the position as he’s already too big for it and will need work over at third base to stay on the dirt. When healthy, House posts extremely high exit velocities and has 35-40 homer upside, but already showed swing-and-miss tendencies. He did return for instructs and is expected to be ready to go for spring training, but at this point we don’t know a whole lot more than we did a year ago. He has enormous upside, probably not at shortstop, but needs reps to develop as a hitter and to find a position.

96. Tyler Black, 2B/3B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 33 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Black was the Brewers’ second selection in 2021, taken with a competitive balance pick near the end of the first round out of Wright State University, making him the next-highest drafted player in that school’s history after left-handed pitcher Brian Anderson. Black is an on-base machine, hitting .281/.406/.424 with more walks than strikeouts in High A before he fractured his scapula making a diving catch in center field, returning to play for about three weeks in the Arizona Fall League before he broke his thumb. He plays hard all the time, including in his at-bats, where he follows pitches all the way into the mitt and has excellent pitch selection, especially in those critical 1-1 counts. He’s a solid-average runner who will probably fare better than that on the bases because of his aggressiveness, while his lack of plus speed and a fringy arm make second base his best position, although he can play the outfield if needed. He may not have the power to be more than a strong regular, but he has a very high floor as a super-utility player who has value because of his ability to hit and get on base.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... uel-bleis/

Miguel Bleis was one of the most outstanding prospects in the 2022 Florida Complex League, and only a nagging injury late in the season kept him from showing his skills late in the season at Low-A Salem.

Scouts who saw the 18-year-old believe he has the makings of a true five-tool player. He hits the ball hard for his age and didn’t post outlandish rates of chase or in-zone swing and miss. He struck out a fair amount and did have issues against breaking stuff, which evaluators chalked up mostly to his youth. They also noted that he could catch up to even premium fastball velocity with relative ease.

He’s also an incredibly quick player, boasting plus speed that should help him on both defense and the basepaths. Bleis can glide to both his left and right as well as forward and backward in center field, giving him the range scouts believe will help him stick at the position as he moves up the minor league ladder.

Bleis has tools, youth and production on his side. Now, he needs to shore up his approach and get a better handle on breaking balls to truly tap into his talents. How well he does that will largely determine his future, but the upside is there to be a superstar in the coming years.

From FanGraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hunter-brow ... container/

Hunter Brown Is Framber Valdez in a Justin Verlander-Shaped Container

Sportswriters are a miserable bunch. We slog through box scores and transcripts of quotes from practice and write about games that will be forgotten in hours. Then Hunter Brown falls out of the sky.

The Astros’ new starting pitcher not only has a windup like Justin Verlander’s, he grew up outside of Detroit and idolized Verlander as a kid! Can you believe it? That’s a human interest story fit to make J. Jonah Jameson spit out his stogie and forget all about those pictures of Spider-Man.

Even their repertoires look similar: An upper-90s four-seamer thrown about half the time, accompanied by a slider and a curveball. It’s the meat-and-two-sides combo you’ll find at most barbecue joints. There are differences, of course. Verlander throws his slider more than his curve, while Brown is the opposite. Brown also throws everything harder than Verlander does; his secondaries clock in about 6 mph faster than the three-time Cy Young winner’s.

Regardless, people look at Brown and say the baseball equivalent of “he has his mother’s eyes.” So why does Brown perform more like Framber Valdez?

By any standard, Verlander is one of the best pitchers of his generation and a surefire Hall of Famer. But as a matter of personal aesthetic preference, I find Valdez more fun to watch. I’ve always loved sinkerballers, pitchers who use multiple fastball shapes to keep hitters just confused enough that they can’t square the ball up. Power pitchers beat batters up. Sinkerballers tell batters to stop hitting themselves. There’s an archness to this method of pitching, which Valdez embodies as well as anyone in the game.

Which is not to say that brisket, beans, and cornbread can’t be effective. I find a repertoire without heavy changeup usage to be kind of meager. Brown might disagree.

In order to understand the difference between Verlander and Valdez, let’s start with an extremely obvious point about pitching. Pitchers want to go up there and strike everyone out. That’s not really an attainable goal for anyone not named Edwin Díaz, but it’s something to aspire to.

Failing a swing-and-miss, pitchers can also influence the kind of contact hitters make. If a hitter guesses timing and vertical location correctly, he’s going to crush the ball. If the hitter times it right but gets vertical location wrong, he’ll make contact but at a launch angle inhospitable to hard contact.

Verlander and Valdez are among the league’s best at inducing weak contact, though they do so by different means. Verlander leans heavily on a four-seam fastball that he uses up in the zone, so when batters miss, they tend to get under the ball. Valdez’s tentpole pitch is a sinker that, come on, let’s not always see the same hands… Yes, that’s correct, it sinks, causing batters to hit the top half of the ball. If you can’t get a swing-and-miss, a pop up or a weak groundball is the next-best thing.

The nature of the contact Verlander and Valdez induce is quite different, but their quality of contact ends up being similar:

Verlander vs. Valdez on Batted Balls, Part I
Pitcher Topped% Under% Barrel% wOBACON xwOBACON
Justin Verlander 36th 5th 13th 1st 7th
Framber Valdez 1st 45th 9th 6th 6th
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Rank Among Qualified Starters (45 pitchers)

And while the results generated by such contact shouldn’t surprise anyone, here are the effects of what Verlander and Valdez did in 2022:

Verlander vs. Valdez on Batted Balls, Part 2
Pitcher LD% Rank GB% Rank IFFB% Rank
Justin Verlander 18.5 30th 37.9 107th 19.7 1st
Framber Valdez 17.5 14th 66.5 1st 9.1 74th
Minimum 100 IP in 2022 (140 pitchers)

I do worry that simply calling Valdez the best groundball pitcher in baseball understates things. He is an outlier of historic proportions, as Justin Choi wrote back in May of last year. Valdez led the majors in GB/FB ratio last season. In second place was Giants right-hander Logan Webb. Remember that guy? In the 2021 playoffs he got so many Dodgers to beat pitches into the grass the mole people who live under the stadium thought they were being bombed.

Webb’s GB/FB ratio last season was 2.38. Valdez’s was 4.16. In 2021, Valdez’s GB/FB ratio was 4.73, though he came up about four starts short of qualifying for the ERA title and doesn’t appear on the leaderboard as a result.

Even getting over 3.00 takes some doing. Valdez appeared in his first major league game in 2018. Here’s a complete list of qualified starters who have posted a GB/FB of 3.00 or higher since then:

A Complete List of Qualified Starters With a GB/FB Ratio of 3.00 or Higher, Since 2018
Pitcher Year GB/FB
Framber Valdez 2022 4.16
Framber Valdez 2020 3.08
Back to Brown, the Verlander acolyte. Because they have similar deliveries and at least nominally similar repertoires, they should produce similar outcomes. But they don’t.

In his brief major league experience in 2022, Brown posted a GB/FB ratio of 3.09 and a GB% of 68%. That’s more instructive than looking at something like his ERA, or even his strikeout rate, but it’s important to remember that even including the playoffs, Brown only pitched 24 innings in the majors, only faced 94 batters. That’s not a huge sample.

But if Brown’s high groundball rate is a fluke, it’s one that’s followed him his entire professional career, which comprises 240 1/3 regular-season innings over four years. Brown has never posted a GB/FB ratio under 1.75 in a minor league stop of any length, and counting parts of three minor league seasons and his major league stint, his GB/FB as a professional is 2.21. That would’ve beaten any qualified starter in the majors last season apart from Valdez and Webb.

So what gives?

Let’s start with the fastball. Last season, Brown’s came in 1.6 mph harder than Verlander’s on average, with slightly less spin. Some of the velocity discrepancy is probably down to Brown pitching out of the bullpen, but the two pitches have similar movement profiles. Verlander gets a little more arm-side run on his heater, but the difference isn’t huge.

The fastball location, however, is wildly different between the two pitches. Verlander pounds the top of the strike zone with his fastball to lefties, up and away to righties:

Brown doesn’t do that. He works lower in the zone, and toward two different spots. His fastball usage heat map is probably a little wonky based on his only having thrown 164 last year, but it looks like a pair of lungs:

Just by working lower in the zone, Brown is probably going to induce a few more grounders. And sure enough, he had a groundball rate of 52.4% on his four-seamer, compared to 32.5% for Verlander.

The other difference between Brown and Verlander illustrates the limitations in pitch nomenclature, because it’s truly wild how many different velocities and shapes of pitch fall under the “slider” umbrella. Maybe this can’t be helped, because you know how a hybrid slider-curveball gets called a “slurve?” If you do that with “slider” and “cutter” you get a bad word. So instead, we call two different pitches with hugely different characteristics by the same name. Look at this chart. Does Brown’s slider have more in common with Verlander’s slider, or with Valdez’s sinker?

What Even Is A Slider Anyway?
Pitch Velocity Vertical Drop Horizontal Break Whiff% GB%
Verlander Slider 87.4 mph 31.0 in. 4.0 in. 34.6 39.5
Brown Slider 93.2 mph 24.8 in. 2.8 in. 21.1 77.8
Valdez Sinker 93.9 mph 24.2 in. 14.4 in. 12.1 68.6
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Brown’s slider is as hard as Valdez’s sinker, with equal vertical break but a horizontal movement profile more similar to Verlander’s slider. The difference is that when Verlander throws a slider, hitters see something with a huge difference to his fastball in terms of vertical break and velocity, enough to swing and miss entirely. With Brown, the velocity gap between the fastball and slider isn’t big enough to generate a whiff, and the vertical drop isn’t great enough to generate consistent swings and misses. Merely the next-best thing: hitters just pound the slider into the ground.

We’ll see how Brown adjusts to a full season in the majors, and likely out of the rotation, and whether his usage patterns or pitch characteristics change. But his case, at least so far, illustrates the limits of making player comparisons based on appearance. Not to wave away the Verlander-Brown story, of course, because it’s a delightful anecdote. But while he might look like Verlander, he pitches more like Valdez.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... re-damage/


For Triston Casas, the transformation of power potential into games always seemed a matter of “when” rather “if.”

While the first baseman had prioritized contact through his amateur career and first three years with the Red Sox, his size—a mountainous 6-foot-5—and strength, along with an ability to hit occasional moonshots long suggested the possibility of future middle-of-the-order production.

In 2022, Casas made adjustments intended to increase his frequency of damage even as he maintained his trademark plate discipline.

Casas took more chances in narrow areas of the zone in hitters’ counts, accepting more frequent swings and misses. With two strikes, rather than employing an extremely spread-out approach and focusing on contact, he remained more upright while looking to do damage.

On the surface, his numbers altered little. In a season when he missed two months due to a high right ankle sprain, Casas hit .272/.383/.481 with 11 home runs, a 21.5% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate in 72 games for Triple-A Worcester.

Those number were similar to his .279/.394/.484 line with 14 homers, a 19.1% strikeout rate and 15.4% walk rate in Double-A and Triple-A in 2021.

Yet the 22-year-old's average exit velocity jumped from 89 mph in 2021 to 92 mph in 2022.

A September callup in which Casas hit .197/.358/.408 with five homers in 27 games added to that impression. Increasingly, he looks capable of at least above-average to plus on-base percentage and slugging numbers.

“Hitting the ball hard, no matter if it's with a negative launch angle or a really positive one doesn't really matter to me. As long as I'm hitting the right part of the ball, timing it up, squaring it up, I don't really care where it goes,” Casas said.

“Hitting the ball hard is the objective. People love home runs. People love contact. And I try to generate that as often as possible. I'm in the entertainment business.”

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -for-2023/


Once he had a month to recover from the 2022 season, Josh Jung realized that he wasn’t the player he has always been.

He was swinging too much and swinging too often at pitches out of the strike zone.

The 2019 first-rounder from Texas Tech said he has never been that kind of hitter, but he had also never felt quite like he did in August and September.

The Rangers’ potential long-term third baseman was pressing after a February shoulder surgery that upended his season. Once healthy, the 24-year-old Jung was racing to his MLB debut.

He hit right away at Triple-A Round Rock and expected a quick callup. But the Rangers didn’t pull the trigger, and Jung strayed from his approach in an effort to keep impressing.

“I was just going up there putting so much pressure on myself just to make contact,” he said. “And once you start focusing on that stuff, you start doing exactly what you don't want to do. I was going up there like, 'I don't want to strike out.'

"Well, that's probably what's going to happen because that's what you're focused on. I think that's what I kind of fell into.”

The 6-foot-2, 214-pound Jung homered in his first MLB at-bat, but he finished his first stint with a .204 average in 98 at-bats. Half of his 20 hits went for extra bases, but he also struck out 39 times and took just four walks.

He struck out 30 times with just four walks in 99 Round Rock at-bats as well.

That won’t happen in 2023, he said, even though he has a whole new set of expectations as a potential franchise cornerstone and a candidate for American League Rookie of the Year.

The mental fix, Jung said, was embracing the pressure. The physical fix, he said, was finding the swing he’d had all his life before surgery. That finally happened in January.

“I kind of found it and I was like, 'Oh, there it is,’ ” he said. “And it was just like, 'Yeah, I'm confident and ready to go.’ ”

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -rotation/


Hunter Brown’s big league baptism began last September. He started twice and appeared in seven major league games after spending the five months of the season at Triple-A Sugar Land.

All of Brown’s first benchmarks are out of the way. He will report to spring training with a more concrete future and free of the nerves or uneasiness some fellow rookies may exhibit. In some form, Brown will be a key member of an Astros pitching staff trying to absorb Justin Verlander’s absence.

“I’m prepping like I’m going to throw 200 innings this year,” Brown said. “I think that’s the standard of any guy who wants to be a starting pitcher . . . if it’s less than that or a different role, I’ll just adjust from there.”

Brown threw a career-high 130 innings last season between the minor and major leagues. He took an extra month off this winter to compensate and began throwing his bullpen sessions in early January.

Brown wanted to refine everything in his arsenal as opposed to focusing on one specific pitch or a piece of his mechanics. Brown’s high-90s four-seam fastball and low-90s slider are his two best pitches, but he worked this winter on better locating his curveball and discovering better feel for when to use his changeup.

The Astros are considering deploying a six-man rotation to make a spot for Brown. Houston did it at times last season but isn’t likely to be able to get through the year with a six-man setup.

“I’m a pitcher,” Brown said. “Whatever role it is that (manager) Dusty (Baker) and the front office (want), I’ll be ready to go. I’ve had some bullpen experience last year. I’ve obviously started in the minor leagues and come out of the bullpen there, too . . .

"I just want to show them that whatever role they put me in, I’ll be ready to try to do that to the best of my abilities.”

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... s-in-2023/

Miguel Bleis, OF, Red Sox

Bleis is one of the most exciting young prospects in the minor leagues. His stateside debut in 2022 drew raves for his well-rounded tool set and earned him the No. 88 spot on BA’s initial Top 100 ranking in advance of the 2023 season. He might have gotten a late-season cameo at Low-A Salem were it not for a back injury, but he’s sure to be one of the most fascinating players in the Carolina League this spring thanks to power, defense, speed and a throwing arm that each rank as potential pluses or better. His hit tool might only be average, but he’s still one of the highest-upside prospects in the Red Sox’s ranks.

From FG's Newly Released 2023 Top 100 Prospects; https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

The IBC Braves placed 7 names on the list, with 6 of them falling within the top 50

20. Miguel Bleis
26. Kyle Harrison
29. Triston Casas
31. Josh Jung
34. Hunter Brown
50. Jasson Dominguez
96. Brady House

Some interesting tidbits from the FG Top 100 Prospects Chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-10 ... ects-chat/

12:21
Jeremy: Best guess for top MLB prospect in 2024?
12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Wood then Bleis


12:47
keefths: You seem super high on Miguel Bleis. What makes him different from Josue de Paula or Spencer Jones in terms of floor and upside ?
12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Defensive projection when comp’d to De Paula, confidence in the bat-to-ball compared to Spenny.

From MLB Pipeline's Top Rookie of the Year Candidates from each League: https://www.mlb.com/news/here-are-the-t ... e-coverage

No. 5: Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (MLB No. 34)
First-round pick in 2019. Got his feet wet last year in the big leagues. The only thing that has held him back has been injuries. So he hasn’t really played a ton in the Minor Leagues, he probably would have graduated long ago, but he’s done nothing but hit in the Minors. If you look at his Minors’ career, it’s kind of like having one season’s worth, but he’s got an .OPS of over 1.000, 30 homers, he’s hit over .300. The combination of on-base skills and power I think is gonna play and that job is his.


No. 4: Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros (MLB No. 43)
The only thing that’s up in the air with Hunter Brown is what exactly his role is going to be because the Astros rotation is ridiculous. I think he clearly showed that his stuff is going to play in the big leagues, coming up last year and being lights out, and pitching well in the postseason. But I think even if he is not going to be in the rotation, he can be a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen and have a huge impact that way. And then if someone goes down, he can step into the rotation as needed.


No. 3: Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox (MLB No. 23)
He should be the Red Sox every day first baseman. The somewhat scary thing is that as ridiculous as his raw power is, he’s still learning how to tap into it. He’s a good hitter, he’s managed to keep his strikeouts relatively low for a guy who has as much power as he does. But, you look at his Minor League numbers, he has not hit a gazzilion home runs in the Minors. But I think he is that guy that is going to grow into that power once he’s in the big leagues. And I think this is a perfect combination of skillset and opportunity, and I think his left-handed swing at Fenway Park is going to work very well, and he’s got power to all fields so I think that he is going to put up some very good numbers right out of the gate.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ibilities/

The Brewers had interest in lefthander Robert Gasser in the 2021 draft but selected another lefthander instead, taking Texas Christian's Russell Smith with the 51st overall pick.

Twenty picks later, the Padres drafted Gasser out of the University of Houston to close the compensatory second round.

A little more than a year later, Milwaukee acquired Gasser as part of the three-player package it received for Josh Hader trade.

“I was really excited,” said Gasser, who turns 24 in May. “Knowing what the Padres were looking to do that year, I had a feeling that I was potentially going to be traded. It was a team that really wanted me, and they saw a lot of the positive stuff that I could bring.”

Gasser's 2022 season began at High-A Fort Wayne, where he made 18 starts before being dealt by the Padres.

He made four starts for Double-A Biloxi and then closed out with five more for Triple-A Nashville. On the season he recorded a 3.94 ERA in 27 starts, with 172 strikeouts and 52 walks in 137 innings.

“I honestly didn’t pitch my best in Nashville last year,” Gasser said, adding former Sounds teammate and now current Brewers player development assistant Josh Lindblom helped guide him through the ups and downs.

Gasser showed enough that Milwaukee gave him his first invitation to big league camp this spring, though he ultimately will return to Nashville.

The key has been Gasser’s nasty slider, a pitch that he perfected last spring with the Padres.

“Rob Marcello (San Diego’s director of pitching) came in and he brought a bunch of different grips,” he said. “One day before a live BP, he showed me one and next thing you know I was throwing it and it was nasty. And I didn't look back from there.”

Considering the Brewers' dearth of lefty relievers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Gasser debut in the bullpen at some point in 2023 with an eventual landing spot in the rotation potentially as soon as 2024.

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/jasson-domingu ... ng-yankees


NORTH PORT, Fla. -- It has already been something of a dream spring for Jasson Domínguez, who launched a homer in his second at-bat with the big leaguers and has drawn rave reviews from instructors for his coachability. “The Martian” is only getting started.

The Yankees’ No. 2 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Domínguez continued to impress on Sunday, blasting a go-ahead three-run homer as part of an eight-run ninth inning in the Yankees’ 10-6 victory over the Braves at CoolToday Park.

“The best thing about it is just being around the guys that are in the big leagues,” Domínguez said through an interpreter. “I was seeing this camp as a learning experience, so being around those guys and learning from those guys has definitely been great.”

Domínguez’s second spring homer came on a two-strike pitch from right-hander Nolan Kingham, clearing the right-field wall and striking a cement concourse before bouncing high into the air. New York had been trailing, 6-2, going into the ninth.

“It just seems like the game moves slow to him a little bit in that box,” manager Aaron Boone said. “He’s got such a good command of the strike zone. This time, it was a behind-in-the-count, quality at-bat, and he just stepped on it.”

The youngest player in Major League camp at age 20, Domínguez is batting .417 (5-for-12) with six runs scored, four RBIs, two walks and a stolen base this spring.

Domínguez agreed with Boone’s take, saying that he is “seeing the ball much better” of late, hitting in better counts and playing looser.

“That’s how I like to play the game,” Domínguez said. “That’s one of the things that I’ve learned over the years; that as the game speeds up, you have to do the opposite. If you allow the game to speed you up, then you get out of your rhythm.”

Though Domínguez is likely ticketed to begin his season at Double-A Somerset, where he played five games toward the end of the 2022 campaign, there is great excitement and interest about his future -- even among some of the more experienced players on the roster.

When Domínguez homered, several of his teammates were dressing in the visiting clubhouse, having already exited the game. Infielder/outfielder Oswaldo Cabrera raised both fists in a triumphant pose, and catcher Kyle Higashioka shouted: "The Martian!"

Many fans have clamored online for top prospect Anthony Volpe to open the season in New York, and a Domínguez promotion is not far behind on their wish list.

Though he’s aware of “more fans” at this level, Domínguez said that he is attempting to stay off the grid as much as possible, not wanting to distract his focus.

“I’m not really reading comments or anything like that,” he said. “I don’t really spend much time on social media.”

Another from MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/standout-prosp ... e-coverage

Rays: INF Osleivis Basabe
The Rays’ No. 7 prospect has made consistently hard contact and controlled the strike zone this spring. The team already knew he had those tools, but this plate result might have really opened some eyes. For all of Basabe’s gifts with the bat, he has just nine home runs through more than 1,200 plate appearances in the Minors. He is working on ways to create and drive more fly balls, and his future will look even brighter if he can do that without sacrificing too much of his bat-to-ball skills. -- Adam Berry

Yankees: OF Jasson Dominguez
Beginning with a moonshot homer in his first Grapefruit League game, the 20-year-old Dominguez has been one of the most impressive players in camp thus far. Manager Aaron Boone observes that "the game is moving slow for him," pointing out that Dominguez seems to be exhibiting advanced patience at the plate. Player development staffers have seen enormous progress over the past calendar year, noting that Dominguez’s performance improved at every Minor League stop. -- Bryan Hoch

From BA's Spring Training Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... week-3723/

9. Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
Age: 23
Why He’s Here: .400/.438/.800 (6-for-15), 6 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 SO

The Scoop: The Red Sox are in a bit of a rebuild at this point, but Casas could pair with Rafael Devers in the coming years to give Boston a pair of corner infield cornerstones. The hulking first baseman gave the Red Sox a taste of his power in 2022 when he swatted five home runs in the big leagues. Given a long-term chance this year, they hope he’ll become the complete hitter they projected when they drafted him in 2018.

10. Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: .429/.500/.857 (6-for-14), 6 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 BB, 1 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Dominguez had an excellent 2022 season that started in Low-A and ended with one of the loudest playoff performances in recent memory during Somerset’s run to the Eastern League championship. The 20-year-old has dazzled in the early going in the Grapefruit League, showing hints of the tremendous tool set that had fans eagerly awaiting his pro debut in 2021 after it was waylaid for a season by the pandemic. If he goes back to Double-A and mashes, his already-excellent prospect stock could take a huge jump.

From BA's Prospect Report: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ess-frame/

Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: New York's 20-year-old outfielder has had an excellent first turn in the Grapefruit League. That trend continued on Thursday, when Dominguez swatted his third home run of the spring, one behind Jarred Kelenic and Edmundo Sosa for the overall spring training lead. The latest blast left the bat at 106.8 mph (the third-highest exit velocity of the game) and traveled an estimated 399 feet.

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/jasson-domingu ... s-phillies

4 homers in 9 games? Domínguez looks the part
Yankees' No. 2 prospect making an impression: 'His future is bright'

TAMPA, Fla. -- Jasson Domínguez popped out with the bases loaded in his first at-bat on Saturday afternoon, then grounded out with two men on his second time up. The third time would be the charm.

“The Martian” connected for his fourth Grapefruit League home run in the fifth inning of Saturday’s 6-3 split-squad loss to the Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a two-run missile off Connor Brogdon that left the bat at 107.6 mph and soared over the right-field wall.

“I was looking for a breaking pitch there, really,” Domínguez said through an interpreter. “But at the same time, you’ve always got to be ready for the fastball. So I reacted to the fastball and was able to connect.”

The youngest player in big league camp at age 20 and the Yanks’ No. 2 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Domínguez has been among the Bombers’ standouts so far in the exhibition slate.

Through nine games, Domínguez is batting .421 (8-for-19) with nine RBIs, three walks and a stolen base, striking out just twice.

Domínguez has played in just five games at the Double-A level, and though that inexperience figures to keep him out of the Opening Day center-field mix even with Harrison Bader nursing an oblique injury, manager Aaron Boone could see a scenario where Domínguez helps at the big league level this season.

“There’s no doubt, he’s a promising-looking player,” Boone said. “I’ve been impressed with how at ease he is, how much he seems to enjoy the game and enjoy his teammates. It looks to me like in the batter’s box, the game is moving slow for him. He’s got that in his DNA, that knowledge of the strike zone. He lays off pitches easy and has really good thump from both sides.”

Domínguez, who alternates between Spanish and English in interviews as he grows more confident in a second language, said that he has enjoyed mixing in with the Yankees’ veterans this spring. Domínguez said that he has had productive conversations with Aaron Judge, Jose Trevino, Luis Severino and Domingo Germán, among others.

“It was hard to have an expectation, because I had no idea how it was going to be or what to expect from it,” Domínguez said. “But now being here, man, it’s been great. A great experience. I’m very happy to be here.”

Germán, who started Saturday’s game and permitted two runs over 2 1/3 innings, said that Domínguez has been “very impressive.”

“For a young kid to come in here and show that kind of poise in big league camp, that’s a skill,” Germán said. “His future is bright, I’m sure of it. He’s very good. You can see him every day; his discipline is there, he’s always paying attention.”

Boone said that Domínguez has made great offensive strides since the beginning of the 2022 season, and the organization would like to see him continue to fine-tune his defensive skills.

In the first inning on Saturday, Domínguez appeared to take a circuitous route to a wind-blown Will Toffey sacrifice fly, throwing home on a few hops as Kody Clemens slid home safely with Philadelphia’s second run.

“Athletically speaking, he certainly can play in the center of the field, with how well he runs,” Boone said. “There’s been a couple of balls off the wall that have gotten the best of him. More than anything, he just needs to continue to get experience and reps and play. It’s been really cool to see his improvement for such a young player.”