2023 White Sox Prospect Notes

[Padres]

Noah Schultz, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Listed Height: 6-foot-9
Listed Weight: 220 pounds
DOB (Age): August 5, 2003 (20)
Rank: 145

I happened to have eyes on Schultz for his best start of the year on August 5th (his birthday!). His sinker generally sat around 94-95 mph with huge running action. It already profiles similarly to Garrett Cleavinger’s sinker based on velocity, depth, and run, which grades as a plus pitch. Given his large frame, Schultz is a strong bet to add velocity or more consistently sit at his higher bands (95-97 mph) over the next couple years. His other primary pitch is a devastating sweeper with a unique blend of huge sweep and depth. Like his sinker, it compares favorably to plus or better sweepers in MLB such as Logan Allen’s sweeper. Finally, Schultz has begun to incorporate a 85-87 mph changeup (he threw nearly half of his season total in his most recent start). He used it exclusively against righties to great success. It has solid velocity separation from his fastball, and it flashed nice fading action at times. Schultz generally had strong command of each offering, though he missed badly with his fastball and sweeper on occasion.

The primary concerns with Schultz moving forward are whether his sinker will miss bats and whether more advanced bats will identify his sweeper early and lay off it. His size comes with its own complications as well, and how consistently he will repeat his delivery and maintain his command is something to monitor. Regardless, Schultz is an exciting young arm with two potential plus or better offerings and immense upside given his projectable frame and present command and feel for his pitches.

Jordan Wicks, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Listed Height: 6-foot-3
Listed Weight: 220 pounds
DOB (Age): September 1, 1999 (23)
Rank: 239

Statcast Pitch Data: 6/30, 7/6, 7/18, 7/23, 8/4
Pitch Velo Spin Vert Horiz Total % Strike% Whiff% CSW%
4-Seam Fastball 91.8 2330 16.5 3.8 144 37.8 67.4 12.9 29.9
Changeup 81.5 1498 35.0 11.6 88 23.1 60.2 46.0 29.6
Sinker 91.0 2167 22.7 13.5 71 18.6 57.8 23.3 25.4
Slider 81.9 2669 39.7 -10.1 30 7.9 36.7 20.0 10.0
Curveball 78.4 2778 53.2 -8.0 24 6.3 50.0 11.1 16.7
Cutter 87.3 2372 28.6 -0.5 24 6.3 45.8 12.5 16.7

If not for his pedigree as a former first-round pick, Wicks likely would not be held in high regard. He throws everything, including the kitchen sink, to get by. His fastballs are below-average pitches with poor velocity and shape. His breaking balls are not much better, with mediocre qualities and even worse command. The lone bright spot is, and has always been, his changeup. It falls off the table with plus velocity and movement separation from his four-seam fastball. Yet, a single quality pitch rarely makes a viable MLB starter. Wicks bears a lot of similarities with another former first-round pick and left-hander Ethan Small. These days, Small has been moved to the pen. A similar outcome is not out of the question for Wicks, even if he has a lot more runway to work with. Wicks likely will drop substantially in the next updated Top-500 Dynasty Prospects.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... bad2377d0f

[Padres]

Pedro Leon, OF, Astros
Team: Triple-A Sugar Land (Pacific Coast)
Age: 25

Why He’s Here: .364/.400/1.091 (8-for-22), 7 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 13 RBIs, 2 BB, 7 SO

The Scoop: Leon was signed by Houston in 2021 and has spent 230 games over the last three years in Triple-A. The 25-year-old entered last week’s series with 15 homers on the year, then promptly hit a third of that total over the course of 22 at-bats. He is one of just six players in the minors with 20 or more doubles, 20 or more homers and 10 or more stolen bases. (JN)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... k-8-15-23/

[Padres]

Pedro Leon, SS, Astros

Leon has five homers in his last five games, including a three-bomb game over the weekend. This is his third go-round at Triple-A, and while his strikeout rates have pushed 30% each time he has gotten to more of his power and been able to get his hit tool to play up each season, too. He doesn’t display the typical profile of those elsewhere in the org (like Loperfido), but that makes him interesting because the team is still interested, speaking to the quality of his other skills.

Noah Schultz, SP, White Sox

Schultz just had his third consecutive scoreless outing, throwing 3 ⅔ innings with two walks and five punchouts. He faced a season-high 15 batters as he continues to add length to his repertoire of demonstrated skills. As soon as he’s able to add to his innings total in a way that gets close to matching the quality of his stuff, he’ll rocket up lists and levels.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... week-20-2/

[Padres]

Edgar Quero, C, White Sox:

Quero, who was acquired by the White Sox in the trade deadline deal that netted the Angels Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, on Tuesday had a night to remember, hitting a solo homer in the fourth inning and blasting a walkoff, two-run shot in the 10th inning for Double-A Birmingham.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... es-out-12/

Edgar Quero had the best night of any White Sox prospect on the best night for the White Sox farm system this season.

Quero hit his first two homers for Birmingham, including a walk-off homer that gave the Barons a 7-5 victory over Chattanooga in 10 innings.

It was only Tuesday that we discussed how Quero had done everything except hit for power since joining the White Sox organization, and one night pretty much fixes that. He’s now hitting .340/.379/.500 over his first 58 plate appearances in Birmingham, leaving White Sox fans to want for nothing on that side of the ball.

... It was a big blast, if only because the Barons came the closest to spoiling a perfect night for the White Sox farm system. The six affiliates teamed up for a 6-0 reord, and by a score of 62-19.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/08/white-so ... g-15-2023/

Edgar Quero

Before July 14: .242/.378/.327, 16.2% BB, 18.0% K over 278 PA
Since July 14: .304/.406/.367, 14.6% BB, 9.4% K over 96 PA

Quero didn’t join the Barons until after he came over to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade in late July, but he played the entire first half of the season with the Rocket City Trash Pandas. It was a challenging assignment, given that he’s only 20 and the Angels let him skip High-A, but it no longer looks like he’s merely treading water. It’d be great to see more power, but at least it’s fair to say he’s more than getting by.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/08/white-so ... g-14-2023/

[Padres]

White Sox: Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 2/MLB No. 65)

It's easy to dream on Schulz, a 6-foot-9 left-hander with a wipeout slider, a 92-97 mph fastball and a surprising feel for pitching considering his youth and size. A suburban Chicago high school product who went 26th overall in the 2022 Draft, he didn't make his pro debut until June after coming down with a flexor strain during Spring Training but has posted a 1.33 ERA, .175 opponent average and 38/6 K/BB ratio in 27 innings in Single-A.

Astros: Jacob Melton, OF (No. 1)

The Astros considered Melton with their 2022 first-round pick and were delighted to find the Oregon State star still available with their second-rounder. He has the potential for solid tools across the board and is hitting .249/.344/.471 with 18 homers and 40 steals in 82 High-A games.

https://www.mlb.com/news/projecting-eac ... e-coverage

[Padres]

Jordan Wicks was scratched from his scheduled start for Triple-A Iowa on Wednesday.

It wasn’t due to an injury, according to the Des Moines Register’s Tommy Birch, so it looks like Wicks might be getting a callup. The 2021 first-round pick is 7-0 with a 3.55 ERA and a 99/32 K/BB in 91 1/3 innings between Double- and Triple-A this season.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/jordan-wi ... fdeb4f026e

[Padres]

Royals: Gavin Cross, OF (No. 6)

Kansas City has only three Minor Leaguers with at least 15 homers, and those three have combined for 10 total steals. Even in a difficult first full season, Cross was at least in shouting distance with 12 homers and 23 steals between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A Northwest Arkansas, but he was placed on the IL due to illness on Aug. 15. Should he return healthy, there’s an outside chance he gets hot in the hitter-friendly Texas League (which doesn’t end until Sept. 17). Otherwise, the Royals will lose out on a 20-20 player after Bobby Witt Jr. and Brewer Hicklen hit the marks in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

White Sox: José Rodríguez, 2B/SS (No. 8)

Coming off consecutive seasons with 30-plus steals, Rodríguez already has that part of the equation secured with 25 thefts in 81 games for Double-A Birmingham. He’s supplemented with 16 homers, a new career high, beating out his 14 across three levels in 2021. Power isn’t exactly the 22-year-old’s forte, but his pursuit could be aided by a late-season promotion to Triple-A Charlotte, one of the level’s most hitter-friendly ballparks. Considering Rodríguez already had a cup of coffee on the South Side, a move to the International League can’t be ruled out.

Astros: Jacob Melton, OF (No. 1)

No. 6 Astros prospect Joey Loperfido (21 HR, 24 SB) and No. 11 Kenedy Corona (22 HR, 29 SB) have already cleared the 20-20 bar, and Melton is quite close to joining them. The 2022 second-rounder already ranks second in the organization with 40 steals and is sitting on 18 homers in 83 games with certainly enough power to launch two more blasts before 2023 is out, especially considering High-A Asheville’s hitter-friendly reputation.

Rockies: Jordan Beck, OF (No. 4/MLB No. 88)

The 38th overall pick in 2022 never hit 20 homers or stole 20 bases in any of his three seasons at Tennessee, but he's continued to develop into a well-rounded prospect and is now one of 20 Top 100 prospects with above-average power and speed grades. He's sitting at 24-17 this season, and he's been more aggressive on the basepaths since his promotion to Double-A Hartford, with six steals in seven attempts in 32 games.

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-mlb-team- ... e-coverage

[Padres]

Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies:

After a strong first half with Double-A Hartford, Goodman earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque on Aug. 8. In his 13 games with the Isotopes, Goodman has hit .340/.386/.849 with seven home runs. Goodman went 3-for-3 on Wednesday with a pair of walks as he reached base in all five plate appearances. Goodman has legitimate power and improving plate skills that may allow him to get to his power consistently long term.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... dium=email

[Padres]

With the White Sox’s Arizona Complex League season in the books, the organization is giving a few of its more prominent teenagers a little taste of Kannapolis before the A-ball season comes to a close.

... Ryan Burrowes and Ronny Hernández all joined the Cannon Ballers’ roster this week, although none are yet active. All three are starting out on the developmental list, and it’s possible they’ll spend the bulk of their time there. Players on the DL don’t count against the active roster, but they are able to do just about everything around the team except appear in the games, whether it’s taking part in practices, or serving as a bullpen catcher or a base coach.

... Burrowes, who turned 19 last week, hit .260/.330/.386 over his first 178 stateside plate appearances. He effectively held his ground in his transition from the DSL to the ACL, although the walk-to-strikeout gap that made him intriguing for a $70,000 signing last season (25 BB, 34 K) widened to something more typical (12 BB, 51 K).

Hernandez, an 18-year-old catcher signed out of Venezuela for an unreported amount, has been the breakout player on his roster two years in a row. He followed up his excellent DSL debut in 2022 (.268/.383/.526) with an even better hit tool in the ACL this year, hitting .338/.430/.493 over 172 plate appearances. He struck out just 35 times while drawing 22 walks, and all of his games in the field were behind the plate.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/08/white-so ... g-24-2023/

[Padres]

Jordan Wicks was outstanding in his big league debut on Saturday, racking up nine strikeouts over five innings of one-run baseball in a victory over the Pirates.

The 23-year-old southpaw scattered just two hits on the night while issuing one base on balls. He served up a leadoff homer to Ke’Bryan Hayes on his second pitch of the night, but was nearly flawless the rest of the way. Wicks generated 13 swinging strikes on 80 pitches on the night — nine of those on his changeup — while registering an impressive CSW of 36 percent. He’ll see if he can replicate this fine effort when he takes on the Reds in Cincinnati on Friday.

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseb ... acd1bd0000

[Padres]

On Sunday morning, Hunter Goodman received the advice manager Bud Black gives to all debuting Rockies: “More than anything, enjoy today, listen for every moment.”

The final moment of many for Goodman to remember Sunday afternoon had a dreamy soundtrack -- the ball’s explosion off James McCann’s bat before nestling into his first-base mitt, and his diving body hitting the infield dirt.

Such was Goodman’s securing of the final out of the Rockies’ much-needed 4-3 victory over the Orioles at Camden Yards.

Goodman -- who forced the callup by hitting .371 with nine home runs in 15 games with Triple-A Albuquerque, after hitting .239 with 25 homers and 78 RBIs at Double-A Hartford -- had two hits (the first one driving in a run) and scored the winning run on Elias Díaz’s ninth-inning RBI groundout.

Goodman, the Rockies' No. 12 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, ended the day by snatching the final out behind closer Justin Lawrence -- who needed the result as much as any of the Rockies, who had lost six straight despite being tied or in the lead in the eighth inning or later.

“I just thought all around it was a good day -- I had a lot of fun, and enjoyed a good win and being able to contribute,” Goodman said.

Goodman’s first day in the Majors also featured Black’s 1,000th game as the Rockies’ manager. Black also managed 1,362 for the Padres from 2007-15, and he became the 12th man to manage at least 1,000 with two teams.

Black won’t have to worry. Goodman will remember the day.

“That was great,” Black said. “I told him when he came in this morning, 'There’s no day like your first day.' There’s going to be a lot going through your mind.

“Get your first hit, score the go-ahead run and make a diving play on a ball to end the game. There’s a lot in there.”

... Goodman’s day started with a second-inning drive to the warning track in deep center against Jack Flaherty, and his single through the middle to score McMahon in the sixth ended Flaherty’s day.

From here, it’s a month-plus of not just learning the Majors, but competing with rookies in similar situations. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, who has been the starter since Opening Day, and outfielder Nolan Jones have staked their claim to be part of the Rockies’ turnaround with their two-way play.

Center fielder Brenton Doyle’s star-level defense has far outpaced his offense, although he went 1-for-3 in the series finale. Players somewhat connected to Goodman are rookie switch-hitting first baseman Michael Toglia, who homered in the fifth and has gone deep in two of his past three starts; and second-year first baseman/designated hitter Elehuris Montero, who did not play Sunday.

Goodman plays both corner outfield positions, but so does Toglia, while Montero is primarily a first baseman. There could be crowds at first base and the outfield when Kris Bryant returns from a left index finger fracture. Bryant has embraced the idea of playing some first base.

The five rookies who started Sunday and Montero will receive the bulk of the at-bats the rest of the season. To make room for Goodman -- a 23-year-old who was a fourth-round pick in 2021 out of Memphis -- the Rockies released veteran outfielder Jurickson Profar -- who will be eligible for the postseason if he hooks on with another team by Thursday.

https://www.mlb.com/news/hunter-goodman ... th-rockies

[Padres]

INF Max Muncy (No. 9)

Nicknamed “2.0,” as a play on his shared name with the Dodgers' power-hitting infielder, Muncy’s production has improved as he’s moved up in levels. Promoted from High-A Lansing to Double-A Midland in July, the 21-year-old is hitting a combined .264 with nine homers, 26 doubles and 50 RBIs over 108 games.

“Max has shown a stark adjustment in Midland,” Owens said. “His skill set and body remind me of a young Trevor Story. Max is a true shortstop who makes every play imaginable. Offensively, he’s making adjustments and sharpening his approach. The power will show up in spades. It’s fun to watch Max’s progress and easy to envision a bright future.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/a-s-top-minor- ... ugust-2023

Before settling in as the Charlotte Knights’ pitching coach, Donnie Veal spent the first half of the season as a part-time roving instructor, working with pitchers in Kannapolis and Winston-Salem. Now that I’ve had a chance to see most of these young pitchers in action myself, I wanted to get Veal’s take. Here are the highlights of our chat last week.

What are your impressions of Jonathan Cannon?

“Cannon is doing really well. He’s a big, strong kid who throws a lot of strikes, and throws at a high velocity. He was a polished college pitcher, so we’re just fine-tuning him. He does the basics that we teach at that level really well. He definitely has a good mix and it’s just more refining what pitches he has and learning how to use them.”

How about Tyler Schweitzer?

“He’s another college guy. Again, the biggest thing down there we focus on is getting in the strike zone and learning to throw your breaking pitches in the strike zone. Tyler’s been doing that and I think that’s why he’s had a lot of success.”

It seems like when you look at the Kannapolis staff in particular, they pound the strike zone and don’t issue many walks.

“I keep saying it. That’s what we focus on down there. That’s what we constantly work on in practice, getting in the strike zone, learning to throw your breaking pitch in the strike zone and for the most part, if you limit the walks, everything will take care of itself.”

And, really, that’s what it seems that whole staff has done all year.

“Yeah, that’s what we’ve been preaching. Always great to see Blake Hickman down there working with those guys and Zaleski has been down there lot working with them. And you can see the results on the field.”

https://soxmachine.com/2023/08/talking- ... nnie-veal/

[Padres]

Cristian Mena

Cristian Mena has been on another level for the month of August. In four August starts, Mena has throw 24 ⅔ innings with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, a 1.10 GO/AO, and a .233 BAA. There’s rumors that the 20 year old righty is being promoted to Charlotte to end his campaign.
José Rodríguez

José Rodríguez rebounded at the plate last week while also displaying great range at the keystone. Rodríguez also went 2-for-2 on stolen bases, bringing his season total to 27 of 33, or roughly an 82% success rate.

Bryan Ramos

It was an uncharacteristically down week for Ramos, but is still posting an .847 OPS for the month of August after last week’s struggles.

Jonathan Cannon

While Jonathan Cannon’s start may have been short due to an elevated pitch count, his strong August rolled on. Now across four starts, Cannon has pitched 18 ⅔ innings with a 1.93 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, a 1.53 GO/AO, and a .211 BAA.

Ronny Hernandez

18 year old catcher Ronny Hernandez ended his DSL season strong, collecting four hits in six at-bats in the teams last two games of the season. One of the hits was a home run, as Hernandez also drove in four. Playing at nearly two years younger than average in the ACL, Hernandez had a very strong .338/.430/.493 slash line with a .923 OPS in 45 games (172 PA) for the ACL White Sox. Hernandez was promoted to Kannapolis on August 23, but has yet to appear in a game.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/08/trending ... cket-city/

[Padres]

Lenyn Sosa | CHW 2B

Sosa has wrangled the starting second base job away from the combination of Elvis Andrus and Zach Remillard. He has started four straight and 10 of the last 12 games there. The 23-year-old was last ranked eighth among White Sox prospects, but with scouting grades that don’t offer much excitement.

His minor league history suggests at least some excitement should be warranted. Since not showing much power from 2017 to 2021, he enjoyed a surge in 2022 with HR/FB rates in the mid-teens and even an ISO above .200 during his time at Double-A. That power spike continued this year at Triple-A, where he posted a professional best 20.7% HR/FB rate and .236 ISO. He has posted an above average FB% to take advantage of that newfound power, though his 108.6 MPH maxEV isn’t particularly high. I do think it suggests that HR/FB rate is a bit above his head right now, but he’s still clearly more powerful than he used to be.

He doesn’t steal bases, so that power outburst must prove to be at least mostly legit to offer fantasy value. Another issue is his microscopic walk rate. He has never been much of a walker, but it’s gotten extreme in the Majors, as he’s walked just 0.9% of the time…equating to just one walk over 106 PAs! That makes him one of the rare guys whose value actually declines in OBP leagues.

The White Sox play in a park that ranks in a tie for fifth highest HR park factor for right-handed hitters, so Sosa is in a pretty good place to show off his improved power. Given the team’s poor record, they should run with Sosa the rest of the year and see what they have. It makes him a deep mixed an AL-Only option, though more desirable in leagues that still use batting average instead of OBP.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/new-every ... g-30-2023/

[Padres]

After 197 games in Double-A and two call-ups to the White Sox without a plate appearance, José Rodríguez finally made his Triple-A debut for Charlotte against Jacksonville on Friday night.

He looked no worse for the wear. He came to the plate five times from the leadoff spot and singled in three of them, so unlike season with Birmingham, he’s not going to start the year in a statistical hole.

He also stole a base, but he was also thrown out once, and that’s something I’m curious about. He’s reminded me a little bit of Nick Madrigal during his ascent, in that some of his success is due to being a high-motor guy who can pressure opponents into mistakes. As Madrigal showed, it’s harder to define yourself by effort at higher levels.

Anyway, Rodríguez went 40-for-50 in stolen bases with Birmingham in 2022, then slightly improved that clip by going 28-for-34 over 87 games with the Barons prior to his promotion. He doesn’t seem like he’s 40-steals fast on the field, so I’m curious whether more polished pitchers and catchers will keep him in check, or whether I’m underrating his speed and/or ability to pick his spots.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/09/white-so ... pt-2-2023/

[Padres]

13. Michael McGreevy, RHP, Cardinals
Team: Triple-A Memphis (International)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: The 2021 first-round pick out of UC Santa Barbara won’t wow you with his raw stuff, but he’s shown advanced pitchability traits dating back to his time on campus with the Gauchos. Last week McGreevy got one turn against Gwinnett and made the most of it, going 6.2 innings and striking out nine. He tied a season high for strikeouts while setting a new season high for swinging strikes with 16. McGreevy boasts a fastball at 92-94 mph with sinker and four-seam shapes, a mid-80s slider, a changeup and a curveball. None of McGreevy’s pitches are better than average but he knows how to sequence and keep hitters off balance. (GP)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ek-9-6-23/

[Padres]

Athletics recalled RHP Devin Sweet from Las Vegas

Sweet will be making his A’s debut after being claimed off waivers from the Mariners on Saturday. He had a 2.30 ERA and a 56/11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings of relief work between Double- and Triple-A.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/devin-sweet/50586

[Padres]

Jordan Wicks held the Giants to two runs in 6 2/3 innings Wednesday to win for the third time in three starts since joining the Cubs.

It didn’t seem like this should have been Wicks’ day. His velocity was down by one mph, and he wound up with just four missed swings and one strikeout in 87 pitches. Still, he kept the ball on the ground, and the five singles and four doubles he allowed didn’t do much damage. It’s odd how different and yet how effective each of Wicks’ starts have been to date; he struck out nine in his debut, got a bunch of flyouts with a 3/3 K/BB ratio in his second win and now he was an efficient groundball machine today. We’re looking forward to seeing what he comes up with next time out against the Rockies. Maybe he’ll unleash a knuckleball or just get all of his outs on pickoffs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/jordan-wi ... fdeb4f026e

[Padres]

Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies (27% rostered)

A fourth-round pick of the Rockies in the 2021 MLB Draft, Goodman made quick work of the minors in earning his promotion to the highest level just two years later.

He hasn’t stopped hitting since his call up, either. In his first eight starts—sitting only once in that stretch—Goodman hit .321/.355/.500 with seven RBI, two runs scored and a stolen base for good measure. None of that is overly surprising … except perhaps the steal, since he only stole seven bases in 263 minor-league games. He slashed .280/.352/.572 while zooming through the minors.

The speed won’t continue, but Goodman should make up for that with some added pop moving forward. He hit 34 homers in 106 games between Double-A and Triple-A, after all, and socked 36 homers the year before. The usual Coors Field caveats apply—the 23-year-old is best deployed during homestands—but that kind of power in the mile-high altitude certainly plays. Consider also that he’s made three starts in right field, so while he’s only a first baseman at present, he could be gaining additional eligibility at some point as well. Fire away.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... week-23-2/

[Padres]

Jordan Wicks pitched well in a no-decision against the Rockies at Coors Field on Monday night, allowing just one run on three hits over his six innings of work.

The rookie left-hander struck out two batters on the evening while issuing one base on balls. The lone tally against him came on an RBI groundout off the bat of Nolan Jones in the first inning. Wicks generated nine swings and misses on 97 pitches in the ballgame, posting a CSW of 23 percent. He exited the game with a 3-1 lead and in line for a victory, but the Cubs’ bullpen was unable to hang on for him. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling as he carries a stellar 1.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15/5 K/BB ratio (22 2/3 innings) into Sunday’s matchup against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/jordan-wi ... fdeb4f026e

[Padres]

Jacob Melton, OF, Houston Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): 3-6, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI.

The counting stats look good for Melton this season, with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases, but the overall quality of contact and strikeouts in the zone are enough to put a question mark on the overall profile. Next season will be a turning point for the former second-round selection. Will he get exposed by advanced pitching, or will Melton make the necessary adjustments to continue his climb up the organizational ladder?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... -joe-rock/

Reese Olson, SP, Tigers

Olson’s stuff was especially sharp in the minors before being called up at the start of June, a relative unknown without the profile of other starters who were working fantasy players into a lather. The home park is appealing, he’s worked more grounders out of hitters than fly balls, and he gives up fewer walks than the average pitcher. Those are all pluses.

The problem is how his stuff looks sharp. His slider is remarkable, with a 20.3% swinging strike rate and a chase rate in the high 30s. It’s a major league pitch, without question. His two- and four-seam fastballs limit him though, with each garnering swings and misses at a rate only a quarter of what his slider produces. He throws 95 but the shapes are suboptimal. If the Tigers can fix any of that⁠—maybe they get him to try a cutter or something⁠—he can take the next step. Detroit has been interesting in regards to player development throughout the organization in the last calendar year. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene progressed, Troy Melton emerged, Jackson Jobe has rounded back into form since a serious back injury, Tarik Skubal has been awesome. The bleakness of the recent past covers this up but there is hope.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... o-believe/

[Padres]

Aldrin Batista, RHP, White Sox

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 185. Acquired: Traded from Dodgers to White Sox with RHP Maximo Martinez for international bonus allotment, Aug. 4, 2023.

Batista was part of the two-pitcher package the Dodgers sent to the White Sox in August in exchange for international slot money. He was leading the ACL in strikeouts at the time of the trade and performed well after a move to the Low-A Carolina League. The skinny righthander starts his mix with a mid-90s fastball that shows run and sink when executed down in the zone. He backs up the fastball with a changeup and slider that each flash above-average but are prone to inconsistency. Batista’s stuff is better than his control and could lead to him being more of a long reliever with the upside of a back-end starter.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... prospects/

[Padres]

Move over Dante, Vinny, Ellis and Larry. There’s a new bomb squad on Blake Street, proving it’s still never over at Coors Field, where blowouts become nail-biters in the blink of a bat swing.

The day after the Rockies celebrated the Blake Street Bombers -- with Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Ellis Burks and Larry Walker throwing out the first pitch -- a couple of the next generation of Rockies went yard in a big way, turning a stingingly lopsided affair into a game inches from being tied before the Rockies fell, 11-10, to the Giants Sunday, while still taking three of four from the playoff contenders.

For Hunter Goodman, it was his first big league homer in his 17th game since his debut on Aug. 27 in Baltimore. He sparked a 10-run rally that nearly turned the tide on the Giants over the game’s final four frames.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” manager Bud Black said of Goodman’s power potential. “It just doesn't happen as a fluke when you hit Minor League homers. He's still figuring some things out, but it's a good swing for power.”

Fans thirsting for offense weren’t going to find their cup of tea in the first five innings. It was 1-0 Giants after five -- reminiscent of the 1-0 lead San Francisco had taken to the bottom of the eighth on Friday before Colorado went on to win, 3-2.

But with the echoes of the original Bombers still bouncing around Blake Street, where they spent the weekend extolling the virtues of hard-hitting offense at Coors Field, Goodman was glad to be part of a power surge in purple pinstripes.

“Everybody's going up there and taking the at-bat seriously,” Goodman said of the late, never-say-die rally. “You're just trying to pass the bat to the next guy and get the rally going.”

Goodman’s uninterrupted tour with the Rockies represents the third league he’s played in this season, slashing .239/.325/.523 with 25 homers in 91 games with Double-A Hartford and .371/.418/.903 with nine homers in 15 games with Triple-A Albuquerque before earning his August callup. He’s slashing .250/.290/.482 in 17 games in the Majors.

Goodman has delivered on virtually every level since his callup. The Rockies have been waiting to see his power play at the Major League level. Turns out, he’s got the homer in his big league tool belt.

“It was good to finally get the first one,” Goodman said. “As much as you want to say it doesn't wear on you and you're not thinking about it, it's always in the back of your mind. You're like, ‘When's it gonna happen?’”

Many watching thought his first swing in his first big league game was going to be the ideal calling card when he took Jack Flaherty to the warning track at Camden Yards.

“I thought it had a chance there,” Goodman recalled. “It was a little higher and I had a little more time to watch, so I thought it had a chance, but it ended up getting caught.”

...

https://www.mlb.com/news/hunter-goodman ... ckies-loss

[Padres]

Hunter Goodman hit 16 home runs for Double-A Hartford through May. His quest for more homers resulted in bad habits as he homered just twice in his next 34 games.

Early in the season, Goodman homered often against sliders. Pitchers began throwing him a lot more fastballs, both up and on the inner half. As Goodman began his swing, his barrel was dropping and lagging, causing him to foul off too many fastballs.

“It was putting me in two-strike counts I shouldn’t have been in,” Goodman said, “and causing me to strike out more and have worse at-bats.”

Watching video in late June with Hartford hitting coach Tom Sutaris and Rockies minor league hitting coordinator Nic Wilson helped identify the problem with Goodman’s barrel.

After hitting .207 with two homers in June, Goodman improved to .240 with six homers in July. He ended up hitting .239/.325/.523 at Hartford in 91 games, the last on Aug. 3.

Nonetheless, he finished the season ranked second in the Eastern League with 25 home runs.

Goodman kept raking at Triple-A Albuquerque and in 15 Pacific Coast League games added nine more home runs.

He hit .259/.338/.581 with 30 homers and 111 RBIs in 106 games when the Rockies called him up on Aug. 27.

“He really understands his swing,” Wilson said, “and he’s pretty advanced when it comes to some approach aspects of hitting.”

Drafted in the fourth round in 2021 out of Memphis as a catcher, Goodman played that position sparingly at Hartford. He has become serviceable at first base and the corner outfield positions.

Goodman showed high-end power in his full-season debut in 2022, when he blasted 36 homers and drove in 106 runs in 135 total games for Low-A Fresno, High-Spokane and Hartford.

“He’s able to create more speed with each body part as it rotates,” Wilson said. “And because he can do that, he can create maximum impact into the baseball.”

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -the-year/

[Padres]

Can Cristian Mena and Nick Nastrini Miss Bats in the Big Leagues?

There are certain stats that seem likely to always move in tandem. A high walk rate will, almost by definition, result in a high on-base percentage. A low whiff rate seems to naturally beget a high contact rate. But sometimes things don’t line up in the way intuition would dictate.

The other day I was perusing the minor league pitching leaderboards and when I sorted them by swinging strike rate, a crop of standouts topped the list, posting rates higher than 16% (the minor league average is around 12% for pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched). Curious, I re-ordered the list to see how these pitchers stacked up in terms of strikeout rate – a stat my brain assumed would result in a similar list of names, if slightly reordered. To my surprise, however, many of the top-ranked swinging-strike inducers skidded down the list when it was re-sorted by strikeout rate:

Minor League Swinging Strike Leaders

Name SwSt% SwSt% Rank K% K% Rank

Drew Thorpe 18.6 1 34.0 5
Chih-Jung Liu 16.8 2 28.6 43
Cristian Mena 16.1 3 27.2 76
Nick Nastrini 16.0 4 28.4 46
Jose Corniell 15.9 5 29.8 28
Rafael Sanchez 15.9 6 24.7 137
Yoniel Curet 15.6 7 33.3 7
Carlos F. Rodriguez 15.5 8 29.5 23
Angel Bastardo 15.5 9 29.4 24
Felipe De La Cruz 15.4 10 28.3 39

This caught me off guard, so I pulled up the major league leaderboards and repeated the same steps, first sorting by swinging strike rate, then by strikeout rate. At the major league level, no pitcher even falls out of the top 30, let alone tumbling as tremendously as some of the top bat-missers of the minor leagues:

Major League Swinging Strike Leaders

Name SwSt% SwSt% Rank K% K% Rank

Spencer Strider 19.4 1 37.6 1
Tyler Glasnow 16.6 2 32.8 2
Shane McClanahan 15.6 3 25.8 27
Blake Snell 15.0 4 31.4 4
Domingo Germán 14.8 5 25.7 29
Luis Castillo 14.8 6 27.2 15
Pablo López 14.6 7 29.2 10
Freddy Peralta 14.5 8 31.2 5
Joe Ryan 14.1 9 29.2 9
Jesús Luzardo 14.0 10 28.0 12

It seems like the recipe that whips up minor league pitching success isn’t the same as the one that results in being a bat-missing major leaguer.

So, what gives?

Let’s start with the obvious. Perhaps the clearest difference between pitching in the minors and pitching in the majors is the caliber of the opponents. Specifically, it’s much more difficult to induce a swinging strike on a junky pitch when facing an advanced hitter than it is against a less-experienced minor leaguer. Thus, it stands to reason that in-zone swinging strike rate is a more reliable indicator of the sustainability of minor league results, as it diminishes the impact of a batter being duped. Testing this theory against the major league pitching leaderboard supports this idea, as the list of high-achievers stays relatively constant when sorted by in-zone contact rates.

That logic still holds true when we look to the minor league leaderboards. Indeed, of the 10 pitchers leading the minors in swinging strikes, only two (Drew Thorpe and Yoniel Curet) have in-zone swinging strike rates that are better than their overall mark in that column. And wouldn’t you know it, those are the only two pitchers who stay in the top 10 when the list is instead sorted by strikeout rate. The other three minor leaguers with overall swinging strike rates above 16% (Chih-Jung Liu, Cristian Mena, and Nick Nastrini) all have in-zone swinging strike rates that are lower than their overall swinging strike rates, and each of these pitchers falls by a few dozen spots when the list is re-ordered by K-rate. This illustrates the importance of missing bats in the zone, particularly when it comes to alchemizing whiffs into punchouts.

It also stands to reason that promotion to a higher minor league level would result in a dip in these types of pitching statistics. Assuming, as we do, that it’s easier to fool a Double-A hitter into offering at an unhittable breaking ball out of the zone than it is a Triple-A hitter, then promotion from one level to the next would presumably expose a pitcher’s reliance on chase swings as opposed to those precious in-zone whiffs. Lucky for us, two of the aforementioned pitchers – Nastrini and Mena – are not only in the same org and have virtually identical Double-A stats, but they also received simultaneous Triple-A promotions at the end of August. So, let’s take a look at how they compare and assess what their results might indicate about the sustainability of their minor league success.

Looking at how Nastrini and Mena performed on paper at Double-A makes them seem like virtually the same player. They’re both in the White Sox system, with similar stats in terms of swinging strikes, walks and strikeouts. They also feature the same arsenal – four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup – and made their Triple-A debuts within a couple days of one another. But within those similarities, there are key distinctions between them that might alter our expectations of them.

Let’s start with how they ended up with the White Sox. Mena was signed for $250,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, and while the start of his pro career was delayed by the pandemic, he was still just 18 when he took the mound for the first time in 2021. Having been largely untested before then, he quickly ascended through the org as part of Project Birmingham and is now the youngest pitcher to reach Triple-A this year. Conversely, Nastrini, who is several years older, was acquired mid-season as part of the Joe Kelly trade with the Dodgers and boasts a more robust track record than Mena, having been a fourth-round pick in 2021 out of UCLA.

In terms of statistics, their walk rates were identical at Double-A, each posting an unsavory 11.3% mark in that column. Their strikeout rates were similar to one another as well, each hovering above 25%, and their swinging strike rates differed by just .1%, with Nastrini’s coming in at 16.5%, and Mena’s at 16.6%. But before we chalk up those similarities to these guys being the same pitcher in different fonts, let’s investigate how they’re producing these numbers and see what we might expect from each going forward.

While Nastrini and Mena feature the same pitch mix, they use their arsenals in very different ways. Mena has long boasted an impeccable ability to spin his curveball, to the point that he’s been tasked with building his arsenal around that pitch. Since turning pro, he’s worked on adding a slider to his mix, and while it’s developed a slightly more distinct shape this season (tighter, with more horizontal action), it still blurs with his curveball, with both pitches acting in similar ways to miss bats on offerings out of the strike zone.

While Nastrini’s breaking balls don’t cause jaws to drop the way Mena’s curveball has throughout his career, their shapes are much more distinct from one another, and there’s roughly 7 mph of velocity separation between them.

Both pitchers throw a changeup between 13-14% of the time, and both favor the cambio against lefties. Nastrini’s changeup has a sharp shape to it, with its velocity and arm-side movement geared at mirroring the movement of his slider, allowing the changeup to work against lefties the way that his slider works against righties.

Mena’s changeup is also most effective when he’s able to play it off of the shape of his slider, in the hopes of getting lefties to flail at it off the plate. Unfortunately, his changeup is much faster than the slider, flirting with 90 mph, and its shape doesn’t feature much horizontal action.

Meanwhile, Mena’s fastball has lost some of its ride, as well as a tick or two of velocity, so it tends to hover in the 91-92 mph band, and without the bat-missing ride, its shape and velocity are too similar to those of the changeup for either pitch to be a reliable in-zone bat-misser.

As a result, Mena’s lukewarm heater has been frighteningly hittable this season, contributing to a very high home run rate for the young hurler. Nastrini’s four-seamer, on the other hand, has been much more successful, with a flatter, more deceptive shape. It’s thrown from a release point that’s more difficult to pick up due to Nastrini’s setup towards the third base side of the rubber. His fastball has maintained a higher average velocity, eliciting significantly more swinging strikes and a more anemic resulting slash line than that induced by Mena’s heater. This in turn has resulted in more whiffs throughout the strike zone, particularly at the top of it, and confirms that Nastrini’s overall swinging strike rate doesn’t rely as heavily on chase as Mena’s does.

That said, Nastrini’s command is worse than Mena’s, as he offers up a greater number of non-competitive wild pitches compared to Mena’s strategic out-of-zone offerings. Their matching walk rates at Double-A were arrived at very differently, with Mena’s coming as a side effect of intentional out-of-zone offerings, whereas Nastrini’s were more indicative of legitimate mistakes. This has held true at the higher level, with both pitchers now a few starts into their time with Triple-A Charlotte. In fact, many of the assumptions that could be drawn from their time at Double-A have come to fruition since their promotion.

In Mena’s first start, only three of his 88 pitches resulted in a swinging strike, due largely to Triple-A batters’ collective ability to lay off his breaking balls. His second and third starts were better in this regard, but he still struggled to induce chase on the outer half against righties, which was a key ingredient in the elixir that allowed his stuff to play up at lower levels. The patience of his opponents has resulted in a relative downtick in strikeouts, along with an uptick in walk rate. He has also given up an inordinate number of hits, due in large part to the hittablity of his heater. Nastrini, on the other hand, has kept opposing bats off his offerings but has struggled to maintain command. His second start with Triple-A Charlotte featured four wild pitches, including one with the bases loaded, which nearly allowed two runs to score when the ball bounced several feet in front of the plate and caromed off the catcher’s gear into the visitors dugout.

It’ll take more than a few starts apiece to get a sense for how Mena and Nastrini adapt to the higher level, but their outings have been in keeping with our expectations so far. Mena is young and athletic enough to hope that he’ll be able to tack additional velocity onto his fastball, while also working to refine the look of his entire arsenal to induce more in-zone whiffs. Expectations-wise, this likely means Mena’s on his way to a big league role at the back of a rotation, with multi-inning relief as a fallback option. Nastrini is more fully developed in terms of the look of his stuff, so his more urgent task will be to refine his command, such that his entire repertoire can play to its potential. As such, his ceiling is higher, and a spot near the front of a rotation is attainable if the command piece falls into place. Otherwise, he has the look of an impactful late-inning reliever.

All in all, if either Mena or Nastrini hope to remain atop the swinging strike leaderboard at Triple-A and beyond, there are key improvements to be made and flaws to be addressed, and despite their seeming similarities, their respective flaws (and necessary improvements) are distinct from one another. While it seems neither is likely to emerge as the next Spencer Strider, they both have a good shot at firming up an important big league role within the next season or two.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-cristia ... g-leagues/