CURTIS MEAD, 1B/3B, TAMPA BAY RAYS
LG 6’2 185 lb. frame. Lean build with additional room to add. Hits from a narrow, upright stance with high hands. Displays feel for the strike zone, strong bat control and comfort working to all fields. Takes aggressive hacks early, but competes with two strikes and is a tough out. Generates plus or better raw power, and could get to 30-HR impact as he continues to grow into his approach. Currently a third baseman, Mead is a stiff athlete with an average arm, making him more of a playable defender at the position than a true fit. Likely fits more comfortably in left field or first base long-term. A slide down the defensive spectrum puts more pressure on the bat, but he should produce enough to profile as a strong regular.
NELSON VELAZQUEZ, RF, CHICAGO CUBS
Standing at 6’0 200 lbs. with a thick, muscular build, Velazquez certainly looks the part. He uses his physicality and plus hand speed to generate plus-plus raw power and is the type of hitter who can put on a show during batting practice, but despite his statistical performance the in-game approach is poor and will need refinement as he continues to climb. He’s primarily a fastball hitter who struggles with spin/offspeed and is prone to both swing/miss in the zone and chase outside of it. Above-average arm strength profiles in right field, but below-average speed and instincts limit him to a fringy defender. Plus power potential gives him a chance to play everyday, but the hit tool concerns make a Jorge Soler-like profile the most realistic outcome.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ue-part-1/
2021 Rays Prospect Reports
Moderator: Rays
Re: 2021 Rays Prospect Reports
Diego Cartaya, C Dodgers | .316 ISO, .438 wOBA, 13.1 BB%, 66.4% Contact Rate
Potentially a monster in the making, Cartaya is one of the best hitters based on data in the minor leagues. Cartaya shows above-average raw power with his max exit velocity sitting above 107 mph and his 90th percentile hovering around 105 mph (per sources). Keep in mind that Cartaya was just 19 years old and dealing with a nagging back injury that plagued him all season. There’s certainly some swing and miss (illustrated by his 33.6% whiff rate), but it’s important to keep in mind Cartaya’s age in relation to his competition. He was two years younger than the average Low-A player, and this was his first exposure to pitching at the full-season level. Where Cartaya excels is his ability to optimize his attack angle and launch angle upon contact, consistently getting himself into a strong position to transfer his energy into power. Additionally, Cartaya’s pitch recognition and swing decisions are strengths, as he keeps his chase rate down and takes his walks. Behind the plate Cartaya, like many catching prospects, is a work in progress, but he gets rave reviews on his arm and his improving ability as a receiver.
Takeaway: Cartaya may arguably have been one of the top teenage hitters in professional baseball this year. His optimized swing consistently puts him in a position to square up the barrel and make high quality contact unmatched by his peers. Cartaya’s exit velocities are above-average to plus for his age range and he shows an above-average to plus ability to draw walks. His fringe-average contact rate should improve with experience, though swing and miss may never disappear from the profile.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... teristics/
Potentially a monster in the making, Cartaya is one of the best hitters based on data in the minor leagues. Cartaya shows above-average raw power with his max exit velocity sitting above 107 mph and his 90th percentile hovering around 105 mph (per sources). Keep in mind that Cartaya was just 19 years old and dealing with a nagging back injury that plagued him all season. There’s certainly some swing and miss (illustrated by his 33.6% whiff rate), but it’s important to keep in mind Cartaya’s age in relation to his competition. He was two years younger than the average Low-A player, and this was his first exposure to pitching at the full-season level. Where Cartaya excels is his ability to optimize his attack angle and launch angle upon contact, consistently getting himself into a strong position to transfer his energy into power. Additionally, Cartaya’s pitch recognition and swing decisions are strengths, as he keeps his chase rate down and takes his walks. Behind the plate Cartaya, like many catching prospects, is a work in progress, but he gets rave reviews on his arm and his improving ability as a receiver.
Takeaway: Cartaya may arguably have been one of the top teenage hitters in professional baseball this year. His optimized swing consistently puts him in a position to square up the barrel and make high quality contact unmatched by his peers. Cartaya’s exit velocities are above-average to plus for his age range and he shows an above-average to plus ability to draw walks. His fringe-average contact rate should improve with experience, though swing and miss may never disappear from the profile.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... teristics/
Re: 2021 Rays Prospect Reports
Third baseman -- Curtis Mead, Charleston (47 games), Bowling Green (53 games), Durham (four games): The Australia native catapulted from a minor piece in a November 2019 trade to a must-watch prospect in 2021.
Mead was a breakout star with the bat in his first taste of full-season ball. His .356 average for Charleston was second among Low-A hitters (minimum 200 plate appearances), while his .994 OPS placed fifth at the level. He hit .282/.348/.466 with seven homers in 53 games for Bowling Green following an early July promotion, and if that wasn't enough, he went 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and two doubles during a four-game emergency callup to Triple-A in September. He achieved all this while showing solid raw power and striking out in only 15.5 percent of his plate appearances.
"One thing for a young kid that stuck out for me is he doesn't throw away any at-bats," Smith said. "If he has three at-bats in the game, if he has six at-bats in the game, it doesn't matter. He even wins pitches. I mean he wins every pitch. He doesn't just win at-bats. He's out there competing, and that's a really cool attribute for a young player. ... You're gonna see a lot more doubles turning into home runs these next few years the way the ball is jumping off his bat."
The 21-year-old saw time at the corner infield spots this summer, but it wouldn't be a shock to see him move around even more the closer he gets to St. Petersburg. Following yet another strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, it's clear that the Rays will want to do whatever they can to get Mead's promising right-handed bat in the lineup as much as possible.
Shortstop -- Greg Jones, Bowling Green (56 games), Montgomery (16 games): Tampa Bay's No. 5 prospect is known for his plus-plus speed, and he put that to good use by ranking second among Rays Minor Leaguers with 34 stolen bases. He was caught stealing only twice, and it was that efficiency that led the organization to name him as its Minor League Baserunner of the Year.
But Jones is more than just a burner, as he proved in 2021. The 2019 first-rounder hit .270/.366/.482 with 14 homers over his 72 games during the summer. His 128 wRC+ was highest among Rays Minor League shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances. With Wander Franco now graduated, Jones slides into the role of top shortstop prospect in the Tampa Bay system.
"People are going to talk about speed right away, but I think the other part that we get excited about too is just how hard he hits baseballs," Smith said. "He's in the upper echelon of exit velocity. He really, really hits balls hard. It's a different type of sound when it comes off his bat, and that gets exciting to see all the time."
https://www.milb.com/news/2021-tampa-ba ... urtis-mead
Mead was a breakout star with the bat in his first taste of full-season ball. His .356 average for Charleston was second among Low-A hitters (minimum 200 plate appearances), while his .994 OPS placed fifth at the level. He hit .282/.348/.466 with seven homers in 53 games for Bowling Green following an early July promotion, and if that wasn't enough, he went 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and two doubles during a four-game emergency callup to Triple-A in September. He achieved all this while showing solid raw power and striking out in only 15.5 percent of his plate appearances.
"One thing for a young kid that stuck out for me is he doesn't throw away any at-bats," Smith said. "If he has three at-bats in the game, if he has six at-bats in the game, it doesn't matter. He even wins pitches. I mean he wins every pitch. He doesn't just win at-bats. He's out there competing, and that's a really cool attribute for a young player. ... You're gonna see a lot more doubles turning into home runs these next few years the way the ball is jumping off his bat."
The 21-year-old saw time at the corner infield spots this summer, but it wouldn't be a shock to see him move around even more the closer he gets to St. Petersburg. Following yet another strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, it's clear that the Rays will want to do whatever they can to get Mead's promising right-handed bat in the lineup as much as possible.
Shortstop -- Greg Jones, Bowling Green (56 games), Montgomery (16 games): Tampa Bay's No. 5 prospect is known for his plus-plus speed, and he put that to good use by ranking second among Rays Minor Leaguers with 34 stolen bases. He was caught stealing only twice, and it was that efficiency that led the organization to name him as its Minor League Baserunner of the Year.
But Jones is more than just a burner, as he proved in 2021. The 2019 first-rounder hit .270/.366/.482 with 14 homers over his 72 games during the summer. His 128 wRC+ was highest among Rays Minor League shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances. With Wander Franco now graduated, Jones slides into the role of top shortstop prospect in the Tampa Bay system.
"People are going to talk about speed right away, but I think the other part that we get excited about too is just how hard he hits baseballs," Smith said. "He's in the upper echelon of exit velocity. He really, really hits balls hard. It's a different type of sound when it comes off his bat, and that gets exciting to see all the time."
https://www.milb.com/news/2021-tampa-ba ... urtis-mead
Re: 2021 Rays Prospect Reports
5. Greg Jones
SS
Born: 1998-03-07
B: Switch
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 175 lbs.
Drafted 22nd overall in the 2019 draft from UNC-Wilmington; signed for $3.027 million.
Previous Rank: #9 (org)
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 HV SS 21 218 39 13 4 1 24 22 56 19 8 .335 .413 .461 – .467
2021 MTG AA 23 60 8 1 1 1 2 4 21 7 0 .185 .267 .296 70 .281
2021 BG Hi-A 23 257 48 7 3 13 38 29 75 27 2 .291 .389 .527 121 .383
The Report: A quad strain delayed the start of Jones’ 2021 campaign, but once on the field he started to flash the kind of over-the-fence power that had been the sole missing tool in his bag. Most of the pop comes from the right side, where he muscles up and generates more hard contact, and it’s still more sneaky pop than clear above-average thump. Jones can fall in love with his power stroke a little too much, even with two strikes, and that lift-heavy approach got exposed more after his promotion to Double-A. He’s going to have to strike a little more of a balance here in the upper minors to keep the contact rate and quality where it needs to be.
Jones continues to play exclusively shortstop, and while the first-step quickness, overall range, and arm are a fine fit there, his hands and actions can be a little mechanical and awkward at times. You watch the way he covers ground on pop-ups and flares and you think the plus-plus speed might really play better in center field, although he hasn’t played there since his Cape Cod League days.
OFP: 55 / Solid regular somewhere (maybe several somewheres) up-the-middle
Variance: Medium. Jones’ first foray into the upper minors had an awful lot of swing-and-miss and the ultimate power and defensive projection here is still a bit of a moving target. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: Rule changes have made it much harder to glean information from minor-league steals, but high volume and high efficiency is still a great foundation for future success. This year, Jones attempted 36 steals with a 94 percent success rate. He also added some power to an otherwise lacking profile, although it came with a fair amount of swing-and-miss. All of the tools are there for Jones to be a fantasy star, at this point he just needs to find the right balance.
6. Curtis Mead
2B
Born: 2000-10-26
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 171 lbs.
Signed May 2018 out of Australia by the Philadelphia Phillies for $200,000/ Acquired from the Phillies for Cristopher Sanchez.
Previous Rank: N/A
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 ADE WIN 18 151 21 6 0 6 18 12 24 5 1 .309 .373 .485 – .340
2019 PHE ROK 18 175 26 12 2 4 19 13 23 4 3 .285 .351 .462 122 .313
2020 ADE WIN 19 76 11 7 0 3 12 3 13 2 0 .347 .382 .569 – .393
2021 DUR AAA 20 14 3 2 0 1 2 0 3 0 0 .429 .429 .786 97 .500
2021 BG Hi-A 20 233 38 15 1 7 32 19 38 2 2 .282 .348 .466 118 .309
2021 CSC Lo-A 20 211 36 21 1 7 35 15 30 9 2 .356 .408 .586 134 .391
The Report: Mead has had a knack for hard contact ever since his teenage days when he was competing against much older competition in the ABL. He held his own during his first stateside stint with the Phillies but has blossomed since being acquired by Tampa. He was especially locked in during 2021, compiling an OPS of .911 over three levels. Offensively, he has a natural clock at the plate, showing the ability to square up most offerings with high exit velocities. He controls the zone well and the walk rate should increase as he gains experience. The swing isn’t geared for power but Mead should sit in the 20-25 home run range with plenty of doubles at his peak. In the field he’s been a versatile defender, spending time at multiple infield positions but is likely to eventually settle into a first base/corner outfield role.
OFP: 55 / Starting first baseman with some corner flex
Variance: High. The bat will carry him to Tampa but it will be tough for him to stick in a full time role if the power doesn’t develop. If it does, it’s not hard to imagine Mead becoming a Trey Mancini type middle of the order run producer for the Rays. —Nathan Graham
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: We’re cultured and smart (mostly), we should be able to acknowledge that two things can be true at once. If Mead turns into Mancini, that’s a really nice outcome, and one that’s pretty valuable in fantasy circles. Still, it’s a replicable skillset, so while a nice crisp Mead can often be refreshing, there are a lot of other options that should slake that thirst.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ects-list/
SS
Born: 1998-03-07
B: Switch
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 175 lbs.
Drafted 22nd overall in the 2019 draft from UNC-Wilmington; signed for $3.027 million.
Previous Rank: #9 (org)
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 HV SS 21 218 39 13 4 1 24 22 56 19 8 .335 .413 .461 – .467
2021 MTG AA 23 60 8 1 1 1 2 4 21 7 0 .185 .267 .296 70 .281
2021 BG Hi-A 23 257 48 7 3 13 38 29 75 27 2 .291 .389 .527 121 .383
The Report: A quad strain delayed the start of Jones’ 2021 campaign, but once on the field he started to flash the kind of over-the-fence power that had been the sole missing tool in his bag. Most of the pop comes from the right side, where he muscles up and generates more hard contact, and it’s still more sneaky pop than clear above-average thump. Jones can fall in love with his power stroke a little too much, even with two strikes, and that lift-heavy approach got exposed more after his promotion to Double-A. He’s going to have to strike a little more of a balance here in the upper minors to keep the contact rate and quality where it needs to be.
Jones continues to play exclusively shortstop, and while the first-step quickness, overall range, and arm are a fine fit there, his hands and actions can be a little mechanical and awkward at times. You watch the way he covers ground on pop-ups and flares and you think the plus-plus speed might really play better in center field, although he hasn’t played there since his Cape Cod League days.
OFP: 55 / Solid regular somewhere (maybe several somewheres) up-the-middle
Variance: Medium. Jones’ first foray into the upper minors had an awful lot of swing-and-miss and the ultimate power and defensive projection here is still a bit of a moving target. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: Rule changes have made it much harder to glean information from minor-league steals, but high volume and high efficiency is still a great foundation for future success. This year, Jones attempted 36 steals with a 94 percent success rate. He also added some power to an otherwise lacking profile, although it came with a fair amount of swing-and-miss. All of the tools are there for Jones to be a fantasy star, at this point he just needs to find the right balance.
6. Curtis Mead
2B
Born: 2000-10-26
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 171 lbs.
Signed May 2018 out of Australia by the Philadelphia Phillies for $200,000/ Acquired from the Phillies for Cristopher Sanchez.
Previous Rank: N/A
Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2019 ADE WIN 18 151 21 6 0 6 18 12 24 5 1 .309 .373 .485 – .340
2019 PHE ROK 18 175 26 12 2 4 19 13 23 4 3 .285 .351 .462 122 .313
2020 ADE WIN 19 76 11 7 0 3 12 3 13 2 0 .347 .382 .569 – .393
2021 DUR AAA 20 14 3 2 0 1 2 0 3 0 0 .429 .429 .786 97 .500
2021 BG Hi-A 20 233 38 15 1 7 32 19 38 2 2 .282 .348 .466 118 .309
2021 CSC Lo-A 20 211 36 21 1 7 35 15 30 9 2 .356 .408 .586 134 .391
The Report: Mead has had a knack for hard contact ever since his teenage days when he was competing against much older competition in the ABL. He held his own during his first stateside stint with the Phillies but has blossomed since being acquired by Tampa. He was especially locked in during 2021, compiling an OPS of .911 over three levels. Offensively, he has a natural clock at the plate, showing the ability to square up most offerings with high exit velocities. He controls the zone well and the walk rate should increase as he gains experience. The swing isn’t geared for power but Mead should sit in the 20-25 home run range with plenty of doubles at his peak. In the field he’s been a versatile defender, spending time at multiple infield positions but is likely to eventually settle into a first base/corner outfield role.
OFP: 55 / Starting first baseman with some corner flex
Variance: High. The bat will carry him to Tampa but it will be tough for him to stick in a full time role if the power doesn’t develop. If it does, it’s not hard to imagine Mead becoming a Trey Mancini type middle of the order run producer for the Rays. —Nathan Graham
Major league ETA: 2023
Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: We’re cultured and smart (mostly), we should be able to acknowledge that two things can be true at once. If Mead turns into Mancini, that’s a really nice outcome, and one that’s pretty valuable in fantasy circles. Still, it’s a replicable skillset, so while a nice crisp Mead can often be refreshing, there are a lot of other options that should slake that thirst.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ects-list/
