IBC

Normally, I'm okay with the projections DMB provides, but this year it defintely seems like they got lazy. It seems like every guy that they didn't know what to make of, they gave a ridiculously low amount of playing time to. Since they can't predict how a starter is going to perform, they just give him four projected starts, 20 something innings and thats it. They call it a night.

They really got lazy on some shit this year. There's no reason to think some of the guys they screwed on Innings or ABs would not play a full season, much less 4 games. What the hell is that?

Fuck you DMB. Get your shit together.

Seriously. Jeremy Affeldt pitched 59 innings last year, and 97 the year before that. He got a $3 mil 1 yr contract with the Reds, and from January until mid-March he was competing for the #5 spot in the rotation, before being sent back to the pen. Not only did he not receive a SP fatigue rating (despite 42 career starts, incl. 9 in 2006), but DMB projected a measly 16.0 IP. This for a player coming off a good season for the NL champs [3.51 ERA] who has never thrown below 49.2 innings in his big league career. Just ridiculous. I'd also wager that Gio and Adam Miller net more than 30 and 23 big league IP respectively, though those are more understandable totals than Affeldt's.

Ryan Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Ervin Santana...just some of the guys I know for a fact will throw more than 18 innings that got projected around there. It's messed up.

Hopefully the DMB and BP partnership fixes things starting next year. Agreed that DMB has an unusual share of poor projections (both positive and negative for players). Very well done in the past, but this year was disappointing. A bunch of half-trained chimps or a few of us GMs could have made a few adjustments to improve things.

Is DMB coming out with a projection disk B this year? If so, is this something that could be remedied? If so, it would require a change in league precedence (previously we had only added players who did not making the first disk, rather than those who received different projections) and perhaps rules (not sure if there is a rule regarding it per se).

As far as I remember they are not doing a second disc. I believe they were only going to release one this year and because it was originally slated to be released about now, they moved it up until the day it was released. Whether or not this affected their projections for IP etc., I don't know. I think they were just waiting for Opening Day rosters. But as far as I know there is no Projection Disc B. If there is one I will be surprised.

DMB has said there will be one and only one disc this year.

That may change, but probability is unlikely.

We could always use another set of projections for next season.....or some sort of combo of multiple projections.

Astros wrote:We could always use another set of projections for next season.....or some sort of combo of multiple projections.

with the DMB and Baseball Prospectus merger i don't think that's necessary. I expect their projections to rock ass now.

I thought they said only one disk when they said they were releasing April 4th, which essentially was their B disk, only no A disk was going out. I assumed that would change when they moved the date.

No, it was one disc either way.

I just dont understand like what goes through their minds when they are doing this. Tim Redding had a very respectable projection last year a 4.20 or something like that, he then had a career year and in 15 starts had an outstanding 3.64 era in the MLB. Naturally his sim went up to 5.16

Yeah, this was pretty shitty. Aside from giving some players with awful health records and arm issues amazing projections, they also shafted Kobayashi. if not for the BP team-up, i'd be looking for a way to put the PECOTA projections into a DMB type database for use next year.
I may still do that, just to be safe, I don't want to use shitty projections again and they really got fucking lazy this season.

Yep, DMB was pretty piss poor on quite a few items they projected......they went just a tad bit overboard on the Safeco Field park factors, as well.

HR park factor for Safeco Field was overall neutral in 2007, however everyone knows that's because the park kills right handed power hitters and favors left handed power hitter. So what did DMB do, they project park factors in Safeco Field that kills both left and right handed hitters.

Couple others....now I know Gold Gloves are often a reflection of a players offensive production, yes, I know a shocker to many, however Youk just tied the record for innings at 1b without an error? Or something like that and he ends up with an AV defensive rating at 1b? Seems a bit odd coming off a Gold Glove season.....

Then anyone who has watched Adrian Beltre play 3b, knows he's not "Average" with the leather over at the hot corner.

Anyways, to go along with Gabe's theme.......DMB did a pretty piss poor job with the projection disk this season. Reeks of laziness.

Brandon Phillips got snubbed for the GG last year he also got AV. Chin Lung Hu who is a defensive all-star also got AV and somehow scott podsednik lost all his speed because he went from VG\EX\EX to AV\AV\VG on running stealing jump.

Youkilius has average range. His error rating is tops for 1B.
Beltre also with average range, and one of the better error ratings for 3B.

Only their range was average which may or may not be true. I'm not sure on that but I tend to agree with the average ranges given.

Pirates wrote:Youkilius has average range. His error rating is tops for 1B.
Beltre also with average range, and one of the better error ratings for 3B.

Only their range was average which may or may not be true. I'm not sure on that but I tend to agree with the average ranges given.

I can't speak so much for Youk, but given he used to play 3b, I'd think he'd have better than average range for a 1st baseman.

There is no way Beltre has "AV" range at 3b, watching him make plays coming in on bunts, making plays going to his right or deep in the hole to his left, not to mention numerous over the head catches on fly balls deep in the left field fould territory. Maybe I'm bias and blind, but the guy makes plays at 3b likes its nobodies business. What was his range rating last year VG? I just don't see it.......its laziness IMO.

Youkilis getting 'average' range was BS. Granted, I'm doubly biased, but it's true.

how about eric chavez. I know he was hurt last year but he won 6 consecutive gold gloves before that and he got an AV.

Phillips AV range is probably pretty generous. He has the talent to be above average, but watching him play last year, it seemed that there a lot of balls up the middle that he should have gotten to, and was bailed out by Alex Gonzalez making plays (He only got an AV too?). Phillips did a good job on the balls he got to, but I can't help to think that he should be penalized for not being positioned correctly, play after play.

Nate...what do you think of Brandon Phillips on defense, assuming you're able to catch Reds games?

the fact that a handful of people who won gold gloves last year got AV ratings is rediculous in my opinion

I'm a monster Yankee fan - Jeter won 3 straight Gold Gloves and I promise you he's not worthy of anything above an AV rating...

Royals wrote:I'm a monster Yankee fan - Jeter won 3 straight Gold Gloves and I promise you he's not worthy of anything above an AV rating...

Unlike most Yankee fans, that just means you are a "realist".

Brewers wrote:the fact that a handful of people who won gold gloves last year got AV ratings is rediculous in my opinion

Citing gold gloves as actually indicative of defensive merit is ridiculous.

i mean, these are only the ranges. guys get gold gloves based off of Fielding percentage which translates into efficiency as well as 'web gems.'

Youk ranked 18th in OOZ last year. Im sure that's one of the stats they were looking at when determining range. That is pretty average.