Jake's Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - NL West

[Giants]

So the NL East is officially declared the weakest division with absolutely no comments at all. Anyway, on to the NL West, and I'll try to finish up with the AL West tomorrow (free preview, I like the A's). Without further ado, let's get to it.

Arizona

Strengths - Texiera, Martin, and the Upton brothers provide a young and solid foundation to a batting order that is finally close to maturing. Jeff Francouer is solid in one corner, while there's a pretty good chance top prospect Carlos Gonzalez projects well in the other corner if Jag wants to use BJ on the infield. Bobby Jenks leads a bullpen that will hopefully be reinforced by Joel Zumaya eventually at some point, while the rotation should feature the underrated Manny Parra, Matt Garza and more rookies like Jeff Niemann, Brendan Morrow, and so on. How these youngsters project will be crucial to Arizona's chances this year. As always, there are also a number of top prospects waiting in the wings, if any of them project usefully this year you might see more of them in this column.

Weaknesses - Lack of established starting pitching is a major issue if the DBacks hope to contend, we can never really tell if this is Jagger's year or if he's biding his time. As I referenced about B.J. Upton above, if he's getting a useful infield projection that's where he should be used, as the injury-prone Rickie Weeks is the only proven infielder on the roster. If enough rookies get projections, it might make sense to use Morrow in the bullpen, as that relief corps is fairly thin, and could really use a lefty (no, I don't consider Boone Logan an answer at that spot).

Final Word - If the DBacks are competing at the deadline, Jagger has the luxury of using some of those prospects to get veterans to fill holes, and this division is open enough that this could be his year if he so chooses. Get ready for the trade emails!

Colorado

Strengths - The nice thing about Coors is that no matter who you put into your lineup the ballpark makes it a strength. John will be counting on bounceback years from Jason Bay and Aubrey Huff, along with big projection performances from Cliff Floyd, Cody Ross and maybe Jeff Larish to knock runs across the board in the Mile High City. The Rockies are one of the few teams with a luxury of an honest to goodness solid catcher in Kenji Johjima, and have a solid closer with Jeremy Accardo. Also check out Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen, for a LOOGY he's pretty nice. The rotation is strong with solid pitchers like Chad Gaudin, Shawn Hill, and John Maine, and could get a bounceback projection from Jason Jennings as well. Freddy Sanchez hits a lot of singles, and if he's playing second is a strength. The GM also has to be considered a strength, as John is one of the best at manipulating DMB and getting the most out of his team.

Weaknesses - The lack of a true ace undermines Colorado, and the team is also counting on a lot of bouncebacks. I didn't put Jason Schmidt on the list of solid starters because I'm not sure he'll ever be healthy again. In the bullpen Kevin Cameron had a nice ERA but dubious peripherals last year, and beyond him and Peter Moylan there isn't much else. There are several holes in the lineup, depending on what the projections are. I'm guessing the Rockies plan to go with an infield of Sanchez at third, Jack Wilson at short, Kaz Matsui at second, and Huff at first. I'm really not a believer in Kaz, who was a product of Colorado last year and probably won't be a contender level bat long-term. Jack Wilson sucks, and I don't think his strong finish last year indicates anything more than a temporary lucky streak, I mean the team tried to replace him with Cesar Izturis, that's a bad sign. Sanchez's bat doesn't play as well at third as it does at second, perhaps if Huff gets another year of third base projection he moves there and Sanchez replaces Kaz, with Larish moving into the lineup. I'm also not big on Reggie Willits in center, he's a 1988 kind of player and its 2008.

Final Word - In a wide open division the Rockies will need every game John can steal.

Los Angeles

Strengths - The top of the rotation, with Penny, Liriano, and Maddux, is the best in the division so far. Starting pitching is most of the battle in DMB, and these three are solid. Joakim Soria in the bullpen is going to be a top closer, with Eric Gagne and Russ Springer (check out that guy's numbers the last few years) following him should keep the Dodgers among the league leaders in ERA. On the offensive side the lineup (both offensively and defensively) is going to revolve around Torii Hunter and his career 2007. Mike Lowell is a key cog at third, and if Nick Johnson can stay healthy he should mash at first. Orlando Cabrera will benefit from his real life move to Chicago, and should be a decent hitting and good fielding option at shorstop, while Matt Murton is a nice little player in left field. That should leave Melky Cabrera in right field after his breakout in 2007, giving this team a pretty solid core in the lineup.

Weaknesses - The back end of the rotation is a big question mark. Carl Pavano? Homer Bailey? Jason Hirsh? Hopefully Ted Lilly's big year last year will outweigh his two lousy years before it. I'm not a big Brendan Harris guy, but I guess you could do worse at second. Aaron Fultz is the only lefty of substance in the bullpen. OK I'm nitpicking now.

Final Word - For whatever reason of all the trades JB has made its the Robinson Cano deal he made with Shawn that pisses me off the most. Lowell and Johnson better be monsters this year.

San Diego

Strengths - Martin blew my mind last year. I had him figured for a stone cold prospect hound who we wouldn't have to think about until 2011 and all of a sudden he swings some deals and makes himself an instant contender. I'm not sure anyone in the league can match the Padres outfield of Ramirez, Beltran, and Abreu, or the double play combo of Renteria and Orlando Hudson. Edwin Encarnacion at third is primed for a breakout, or for falling off the table and losing his job to Jeff Keppinger. We'll see what happens. The rotation features some good (and not so good) lefties in Hamels, Sabathia, and Zito, while the emergence of Kyle Kendrick to go along with Dice-K from the right side creates perhaps the best 1-5 rotation in the National League. Valverde is a strong closer in the bullpen, and there is decent depth behind him. Kurt Suzuki should get his chance both in the MLB and the IBC, though John Buck might project better this year.

Weaknesses - First base is a big question mark after Richie Sexson completely fell off the table last year. I'm not sure why no one will give Chris Shelton a chance in real life, but he'll probably challenge Sexson for playing time in the IBC. The team could also use another big time bullpen arm. The real question with the Padres will be how much the ballpark puts a damper on their offense, as only the prospect laden Angels and the Astros scored fewer runs in Winter League and all those names I mentioned above eked out a .662 OPS.

Final Word - On paper this team should win the division, too bad we play on a computer.

San Francisco

Strengths - Jake Peavy first and foremost, he's the kind of stud you need to win. There is talent behind Peavy in the rotation with Bonderman, Myers, and Grienke, and who knows maybe this is the year Prior becomes Prior again. The outfield of Josh Hamilton, Andruw Jones, and Austin Kearns is solid if unspectaculer, and Salty should be a fixture behind the plate. Kotchman is solid at first, though he's not a middle of the order hitter yet, and Aaron Hill is as solid as you can ask for at second base.

Weaknesses - Starts with a C, ends with a Loser, as in you can't win without a Closer. Chris Ray is out until midseason, and Fernando Rodney is an injury question mark. Dan Wheeler struggled mightily last year to the tune of a 5.30 ERA and probably won't get a projection to justify closing. Meanwhile 6th starter Scott Olsen is the only lefty on the pitching staff. On the offensive side third base is a question mark, as the oft-injured Eric Chavez and suddenly crappy Morgan Ensberg aren't exactly inspiring.

Final Word - This team need a bullpen makeover, and fast, if it has any hope of competing.

Final Word on the Division - Unless Jag decides his time is now, expect to see a race between San Diego and Los Angeles, with Colorado nipping at everyone's heels. I like that San Diego rotation, and I give them the nod as my pick for the division.

[Mets]

You can say what you want about the AL East, NL Central, etc...but from top to bottom, this might be the bloodiest and most balanced division in the league. All 5 teams have a chance to challenge for the top spot, even if that means another 89-win penant.

I'd go as far to predict that only 7 games will separate teh 1st place team from the last place team when it's all said and done, assuming one team doesn't drop off and completely rebuild at some point.

[BlueJays]

Interesting division for sure.

But whats up with the comment of SD having the best OF in the league? Soriano, Ichiro, Vlad can't match up with Martin? Even if you put Dunner out there.

Great piece Jake, fun reads. Appreciate your efforts.

[Cardinals]

Manny, Beltran and Abreu is probably overall slightly better than Soriano, Ichiro and Vlad. I'd take Vlad over Abreu, but Manny/Beltran over Soriano/Ichiro. You're splitting hairs trying to pick a better one, both are great.

[Giants]

Fuck Ichiro, he stole Giambi's MVP back when I liked him. Of course now I hate Giambi and that year was tainted with steroids anyway, but still, Fuck Ichiro. And while I'm on the subject it still pisses me off and it's still absolute crap that he has Ichiro on the back of his jersey. His family name is Suzuki, that's what should go on his jersey.

[Mets]

If Manny/Beltran & Soriano/Ichiro are splitting hairs....I think Vlad is a big enough improvement over Abreu to take the best OF crown.
Pretty significant difference now that Abreu's HGH has worn off.

[Giants]

Now there's some baseball talk. I don't think that Ichiro/Soriano vs. Manny/Beltran is splitting hairs, in fact I think Manny/Beltran is a good bit better. Beltran is a much bigger bat than Ichiro, who's not that much better a defender to make up for it. Manny vs. Soriano is like Willie McCovey vs. Will Clark, all-time great vs. nice player in the present moment. Ramirez has an OPS .158 higher for his career, and even in last year's down year still had a higher OPS than Soriano. A more appropriate comparison would be Manny and Vlad, and I could see the argument for setting them equal (Manny's a slightly better hitter, Vlad is a better defender but has the injuries to deal with, Vlad doesn't have to deal with Manny being Manny but he chokes like A-Rod in the playoffs). Abreu and Soriano are much closer than you would think because Soriano's OBP is so low that his career OPS is actually 64 points lower than Abreu's. Much like everyone thinks Roger Maris is better than he was because of his 61*, everyone seems to think Soriano is a lot better than he actually is because of 40-40.

The way I see it:

Beltran > Ichiro
Manny = Vlad
Abreu < Soriano

But the difference between Beltran and Ichiro is greater than the difference between Abreu and Soriano.

[Cardinals]

I misspoke, I meant the outfield as a whole. My brain is fried. I do think Beltran/Manny is a fair bit better than Soriano and Ichiro.

[Tigers]

The way I see it:

Beltran > Ichiro
Manny = Vlad
Abreu < Soriano

If you were going to line then up like that I'd have to go this way.

Beltran > Ichiro
Manny < Vlad
Abreu < Soriano


Beltran definately has the bigger bat and plays solid "D", thoug I'd give Ichiro the slight nod in "D" it doesn't come close to making up for the offense Beltran generates.

Maybe I'm just an AL West homer but I'd take Vlad over Manny right now, 7 days a week and twice on Sundays. Despite Vlads injuries he's steady offfense.......Manny's season last year is a bit scary.

Abreu's on the sharp decline. Soriano is definately better now and going forward, and I'm a GM who typically over values OBP.

[Astros]

Will Clark was and still is the man

[Cardinals]

Will Clark was and still is the man

Will the Thrill! leading the Redbirds to a first round sweep of the Braves in 2000. Good stuff. He was ridiculously awesome in the second half w/ the Cards. one of the best deadline moves of the past decade.

[Astros]

I'm still convinced had Will Clark never left the National League, he'd be a Hall of Fame candidate, especially with the fallout from steroids. The guy flat out raked. When I first started watching baseball hard growing up, in 1993, Will Clark was one of my favorite players instantly because of the way he played the game. His run in 2000 with the Cardinals was amazing. Cemented himself as one of my favorite players ever. If you put his numbers with the Cards out to a full season, he'd have had 40 something homers and like, 160 RBI. You could tell he thrived off the fans and environment. Plus, in the playoffs he was deadly. Heck, I say put him in the HOF because Will Clark is the reason pitchers cover their mouths when there's a meeting on the mound now, ever since he read Maddux's lips in the 89 NLCS and smoked the next pitch for a homer

[Giants]

Will Clark was awesome back in the day, I mourned when the Giants signed Bonds becuase I knew it meant the Thrill was gone. As for Vlad, I watched him last year as much as anyone in this league and by the end of the year he just looked so broken down to me that I might be downgrading him too much.

[Mariners]

You guys don't know shit! If you all had the ability to watch him day in and day out, I doubt you would retain your ignorant opinions.

Tools determine who is MLB's elite
Scouts examine skill categories that make top players
By John Schlegel / MLB.com

How do you determine MLB's Best?
How do you figure out which of the world's foremost players are the elite among the elite? And how do you really break it down to the individual talents that make up a successful Major League Baseball player?

You ask the best evaluators of talent, of course. You ask Major League scouts, the experts among experts at knowing who's really tops in each detail of the game.

So MLB.com's reporters sought out Major League scouts in their organizations to break it all down -- by baseball tools, and by position. For the first installment of MLB's Best, it's about the tools.

And it's clear that Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki has a toolbox like none other in the game.

The proverbial five tools for position players -- hitting for average, hitting for power, defense, arm and speed -- are covered throughout the survey, in one way or another.

Only one player really scored high in all of the above: Ichiro.

The panel of scouts rated him tops in all of MLB in the categories of Best Hitter, Best Bat Control, Best Outfielder, Best Arm and Best Baserunner. He also rated second in the categories of Best Bunter, Fastest Runner and Best Basestealer.

[Giants]

Wow. I should downgrade him further just for that

[Royals]

Anyone who rates Ichiro high on power is high on powder....

[Yankees]

Bren - I'm not sure if you've ever seen Ichiro hit batting practice, but I've seen him do it 5 times now, and the guy hits the ball out of the park any time he wants to. It's really one of the most unbelievable things I've ever seen - he definitely cuts down on the power for the average and on-base. If he wanted, I'd bet he could get to 25 homers a year, but the average would take a hit - he's probably best off doing it as he does it. No real complaints on the results so far from the Mariners.

[Royals]

No offense, but I'm not terribly impressed by what a guy does in batting practice.

[Yankees]

Is there an explanation to that statement? I don't really see Eckstein popping them out at will in BP, sure as shit was shocked when I hit one out in BP...

Wade Boggs was another guy that had tremendous BP power but focused on squaring the ball during the season. Tony Gwynn is the only modern baseball player with a career average better then Ichiro's.

Adam Dunn probably cuts his average swinging for homers. Ichiro cuts his homers swinging for average. In today's game those two things seem to be getting more and more mutually exclusive. Any player that is doing it is probably at least 3x the size of Ichiro.

26 players hit 30 or more home runs last year. 19 players hit .320 or above. 5 did both (Pujols, Ortiz, Miggy, Holliday, Wright). If you stretch it to .300, there's still only 3 others added (A-Rod, C. Lee, Teix added). No player who hit 30 and .300 had a better BA then Ichiro.

Since you're not impressed by BP, then I'd guess you don't go watch BP, and by that logic I'd guess you've never seen Boggs or Ichiro hit BP. They are two pretty small guys who generate a lot of power. I'd imagine you'd have to admit that both have had some success at the MLB level...

In BP most players concentrate on hitting the underside of the baseball. A technique that hones vision on the baseball for the game, allows for better pitch recognition, and improves carry on the baseball. It's a hell of a lot easier to do this at 70 mph then 96 mph. In games, the players with better vision allow for better pitch recognition, thus cut down on strikeouts and improve their BA. Players that continue reaching for the underside of the ball will have more strikeouts, but more power. Few players like A-Rod and Matt Holliday still hit for a good average despite high strikeouts, but it's pretty rare. The astounding hitters, to me, are the guys like Pujols who can do both. Out of the 26 players with 30 homers and above, only 3 had 90 strikeouts or less.

Take it from a man who had a pretty successful baseball career - I hit 5 BP homers in my life, and 0 game homers. Hitting the ball out of the park is a fucking assload harder then it appears - regardless if the ball is going 70 mph and straight, or 93 with two-plane movement.

[Royals]

Gee, not being impressed by MLB players hittign 80mph meatballs out of the park? How could anyone not be impressed by that?
Ichiro hitting 25 HR's is, honestly, ridiculous. He hasn't even hit 25 doubles since '03, even with his ridiculous speed. I've seen the guy play too, he just doesn't have a power bat, period. And considering the BA he hits for, his OBP is actually pretty weak.

[Tigers]

Bren,

Ichiro says, "Speak no more, of my lack of power"....


http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_y ... =280314112[/url]

[Tigers]

Lets try that again.....

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_y ... =280314112

[Cardinals]

Going have to side with Bren here. Just because you can hit them out off a flat BP fastball doesn't mean you can do it consistently and hit 25-30 HR's. Ichiro isn't a power hitter. Is that so bad? Does everybody have to be a power hitter? I think if he "tried to open up" he would hit about 15-20, and he hit 15 in 2005 and had the lowest batting average of his career.

[Royals]

Lets try that again.....

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_y ... =280314112

Because he hit one in a Spring training game? You're joking... right?

[BlueJays]

Ichiro is a monster for me in GAB. Thats all that matters. The rest of his tools more than make up for his "lack of power".