In the continuing effort to get people to talk about baseball on the board we're going to take a look at the Ultra Competitive NL Central.
Chicago
Strengths - Who would have thought that the 2006 IBC Champ would suddenly change his philosophy and go young? There are some strong young hitters at key positions in this lineup, including Kelly Johnson, JJ Hardy, Wily Mo Pena (who should be a beast now that he's finally escaped Boston), and Josh Fields should be a solid lineup foundation for years to come. Ramon Hernandez is a solid catcher (though I forever hate him for bumping my old friend A.J. Hinch out of the catcher spot in Oakland 10 years ago), and should be good for another year, while if he stumbles Mike Napoli provides plus power and walks sometimes. If the loser of the Ryan Garko/Dan Johnson battle at 1B can bring back an LF or 3B it would even further strengthen this lineup. Though Sammy Sosa is still kicking around, there are also several interesting youngsters on this roster including Manny Burriss, Kevin Frandsen (go read any Giants blog to find out about his warrior spirit), and Chris Carter (who should have a long and productive IBC career as a AAAA slugger).
Weaknesses - There are also interesting prospects and youngsters in the pitching staff, like John Danks, Colin Balester, Joe Saunders, Felipe Paulino and Jair Jurrgens, but there is also an unfortunate lack of veteran depth to compete in this absolutely loaded division. There is decent depth in the bullpen, which lacks a true closer, but the collection of veteran starters is Jeff Weaver, Ryan Dempster, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Lohse. Not exactly an imposing foursome with only Dempster and possibly Lohse likely to get any sort of useful projection.
Final Word - Gabe has done a great job turning a veteran team into a team with youth and upside, but the pitching is probably not there to take down the NL Central this year.
Cincinnati
Strengths - The lineup is definitely a strength, as we know from the recent and much maligned trade. The Reds also benefit from a defensive upgrade of getting Dunn out of LF and putting Soriano there, especially if the VG projection he got from ZIPs carries over to DMB. Defense should be a strength on the corners with Wright, Soriano, and Vlad, while a heart of the order with those three plus Posada, and Dunn with Ichiro and HanRam setting the table should strike fear in the hearts of NL sim managers. On the pitching side, the bullpen takes a hit from the loss of Papelbon but K-Rod is still as strong as any closer around. Scot Shields took a step back last year, but will still likely get a strong projection. In the rotation Halladay and Cain are about as strong a 1-2 punch as you can find in the IBC.
Weaknesses - All the concerns except one are minor. HanRam's defense isn't great, Doug Davis sucks, those sorts of things that one can quibble with, but the real issue is the age/lack of depth on this team. The Reds have one of the strongest front lines in the IBC, but replacements are few and far between if something happens to any of the stars. If Posada goes down, Miguel Olivo steps in. If any of the outfielders go down option B is Todd Linden or Reggie Sanders (both of whom should really be option F). If either of the middle infielders go down, we're looking at Jose Valentin. Also, this lack of depth will make trading for in-season reinforcements more difficult as to get someone he'll likely have to give up a key piece. This is a major concern when the catcher is 38, the right fielder has a back so bad they're going to have to DH him part-time, and the ace has been on the DL in 3 of the last 4 years.
Final Word - If everything breaks right for the Reds Nate could have his first IBC banner, but when was the last time everything broke right for the Reds?
Houston
Strengths - New GM Shawn Lape (henceforth referred to as Other Shawn in deference to all of the work Shawn Walsh has done for the league) has amassed an impressive array of youngsters (in the process earning my hatred for stealing Bumgarner but that's another story for another time). I said I wouldn't spend too much time going into prospects because they aren't my strength, but its worth noting how many quality youngsters are on this roster. On the MLB level, Ryan Braun, who I proudly dub MLB's Great Jewish Hope now that Shawn Green is finally retired, should be a fixture in the cleanup spot whether he ultimately settles in at LF, 3B or 1B. Clay Buccholz is a strong young ace, Chuck James doesn't suck, and Jonathan Broxton and Tony Pena make a great one-two punch out of the bullpen.
Weaknesses - I'm really not that big on Conor Jackson, he's an OK piece to fill a spot for a contender but I don't think he's someone you can build around. Other Shawn smartly saw that catching up to St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago would take more than this year, and has taken the long view in terms of development. I'm not going to harp on the lack of big leaguers on this team because that isn't the point, this team is clearly not built to win this year.
Final Word - With the pounding the Astros will take from the titans already in the division Other Shawn stands a great chance at the #1 pick next year and more prospects to rebuild the franchise.
Milwaukee
Strengths - Jake (henceforth referred to as Other Jake in deference to me because I'm writing this), has built an interesting young lineup, with veteran outfielder and offseason Jim Rome impersonator Eric Byrnes (seriously, go listen to his sports talk radio and tell me he isn't trying to do Jim Rome, though it is cool that he legitimately does it) anchoring a lineup flanked by rookies Evan Longoria-Parker (how come no one else is making this joke? Do I just think it's funnier than it really is?), Jay Bruce, Chin-Lung Hu, and Daric Barton. Veterans Brandon Phillips, Johnny Estrada, and Garret Anderson fill out a solid lineup that is probably a year or two away from being special. This team's surprising performance in the Winter League underscores its potential.
Weaknesses - Other Jake (henceforth referred to as OJ because that's too good a nickname to pass up) has done a hell of a job with the lineup. The pitching staff? Well... the future is bright but we aren't looking at future prospects in this review. Justin Germano should project well, and Jon Rauch is solid out of the bullpen. Linebrink will also make a projection and hopefully turn it around after a not so great 2007. After that the pickings get slim, its unlikely that top prospects Wade Davis, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson or Chuck Lofgren get usable DMB projections, which means a rotation full of guys like Tim Redding, Brandon Backe and Jason Marquis. OJ should have one of the top young rotations in a couple of years with the group, but the 2008 staff just isn't strong enough to compete in this division.
Final Word - If rookie projections are kind this team may score enough runs to challenge .500, though that might actually prove counterproductive as this team could really use another high draft pick and the top prospect it would provide. Don't think about tanking OJ!
Pittsburgh
Strengths - It's really sorta pointless to write any sort of review about JP's team, the season is a whole 22 days away and there's a good chance we'll see 10 new players on this roster (check this post out if you have any doubts about JP's fear of commitment to his players, and go ahead and note that I was right about the first two out the door. That being said, let's talk about the current iteration of the Pirates. The biggest strength is Tim Lincecum, who could be an all-time great at the top of the rotation. In the lineup Jimmy Rollins, Brian McCann, and Chris Young (who I also believe is primed for a breakout year) provide talented bats at the three most difficult positions to fill. The outfield defense should be a strength, particularly when Rajai Davis is in LF on his half of the platoon. The LF spot with Davis and Giles should generate a strong OBP, though without any power. In the bullpen the venerable Troy Percival should prove a solid closer, and Kevin Cameron will at least get a solid projection though who knows what his long term future is.
Weaknesses - The infield corners, with Crede coming off a gawdawful season and back surgery, and Joe Koshansky, who is not that much better than the AAAA sluggers on the waiver wire, could stand improvement. Loretta is a nice stopgap at 2B, but there's talk that Cardenas may have to be moved off of 2B which takes away any depth behind him. More significantly, JP seems to not care about the health and durability of his starting rotation. He is counting on Rich Harden (could strain his vagina at any moment), Kelvim Escobar (already out for the first month with elbow problems) and Jason Schmidt (coming off shoulder surgery, unlikely to be ready for opening day). In fact let's just run down the list of JP's injured starters throughout the system. After the three aforementioned veterans we find Bartolo Colon (coming off elbow problems, hasn't pitched a full season since 2005), Mark Mulder (coming off another shoulder surgery, not expected to pitch until May at the earliest), Juan Mateo (shoulder cost him first half of last year), Kameron Loe (elbow surgery last season). On the prospect side we find Henry Sosa (torn patellar tendon in knee), Sean West (shoulder surgery), hell even his #1 pick Nicholas Schmidt had Tommy John surgery before he was drafted. JP has a thing for injury prone starters the way Billy Beane had a thing for injury prone OFs last year, only times 10.
Final Word - Escobar and Harden need to be healthy for the majority of the season. The team is strong enough to compete in a tight race with St. Louis and Cincinnati, but the starting pitching injury problems are a major question mark.
St. Louis
Strengths - The defending IBC champs have brought back an impressive crew to compete in the NL Central this year. Markakis, Guillen, and Burrell bring power to the heart of the order while Yadi Molina, Scott Rolen, and Ryan Freel bring the D. Rookie Chase Headley may contribute at 3B or LF at some point this year as well. The rotation is also strong, with Oswalt and Lackey a potent 1-2 punch at the top and should get a nice midseason boost from the return of Freddy Garcia, while Jon Garland is solid in the middle.
Weaknesses - The lineup needs another bat. Guillen moving from SS to 1B costs the Cardinals a big advantage at that position, and neither Sean Rodriguez or Andrew Cumberland seem ready to take that position over yet. It might be advantageous for Aaron to keep Guillen at SS and find another 1B, but the only one currently on the roster is Rich Aurilia, and as someone forced to watch him on a regular basis I can assure that no, Rich Aurilia is not a viable option even at pretend baseball. Perhaps Burrell moves to 1B and Headley opens the season in left, or vice versa? Either way is a defensive hit. There are also questions about the bullpen as Tom Gordon is old and coming off a subpar year while Jared Burton is unproven and his K/BB is not what you like to see in a closer. Could a .500 winter league season be a sign of things to come?
The Final Word - Losing some projections from key pieces last year (Sowers and Aurilia particularly), hurts Aaron's chances of repeating, but with the best rotation depth in the NL Central expect the Cardinals to be in the hunt all the way into September.
Last Word on the Division
Once again expect an ultra-competitive race, but Nate's star-studded lineup rivals only the Yankees in name players top to bottom, and the strength of his aces and bullpen will carry him to a division title for the first time in his IBC career. After everything he went through last year karma has to owe this man right?
Jake's Arbitrary IBC Spring Training Preview - NL Central
Moderator: Giants
. I was thinking more in terms of analytical numbers than counting numbers, I mean his OPS+ was 89 last year, that's Dave Roberts territory.
Nice work Jake - the depth is an issue I'm aware of, trying to work on. Though I typically also like to round out the bench with guys who get decent projections when they release them. Sanders was a bat for the stretch run last year, he's filler. Linden and Valentine are there mostly for versatility and defense than their bats. Rosales was a pretty good pickup off the waiver wire, he's looked awesome in camp and I think he might be a versital find. Thanks for the effort and work on this Jake.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
Have no idea really.. he was one of those guys that could very easily get cut when projections comes out - and if he got a good projection, hold on to him..Pirates wrote:Is Sanders even in baseball? Last I read he went in for a baseball tonight interview.
hadn't even gotten to looking if he was even playing for sure or not.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
Kevin Correia (who's pitched pretty well this spring) has the inside track at the 5th starter job. Lowry tends to have bad springs so I'm not so worried, though what happened today was ridiculous. I can't believe that a team would take a pitching and defense mantra and then not have a single viable alternative anywhere in the system for a 41 year old shortstop, who by the way has a vesting option for 2009 based on playing time, I shit you not. Frandsen at SS is painful, Velez pretty much anywhere is painful, the only really promising youngsters (Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholz, no JP Rajai Davis is not promising) aren't going to get to play because of Dave Roberts, with Lewis riding the pine and Schierholz being sent back Fresno. One of the writers on BaseballThinkFactory declared that he'd rather have Amy Winehouse responsible for guarding his bag of coke than having Brian Sabean responsible for building his offense.
