IBC

While we're waiting on the slowest ZiPS pace ever, let's talk some football. Playoffs start this weekend -- who do you have in this year's Super Bowl?

The 6 teams I don't want to play are:

Saints (Their 2ndary can be beat - but very few weaknesses anywhere else)
Colts (hottest team with the most confidence. A team that is not great but doesn't have many weaknesses are always tough in the playoffs)
Eagles (having to take down the Rams and Texans to even have a shot at the playoffs in combination with the way Foles, Sproles & Cox are playing right now. team thrives on being underdog).
Ravens (they are a complete wild card on offense with a terrific defense. very hard to scheme against an unpredictable offense).
Chiefs (have been terrific all year. pass defense is poor but offense can run with anyone in the league)
Rams (Gurley, Goff and Arnold - if they all show, the Rams are not very beatable).

The 6 teams that I think are more vulnerable:

Cowboys (least impressive team in the playoffs. Zeke has stepped up but they have barely beaten bad teams such as the Giants to win a poor division).
Patriots (lot's of chinks in the armor this year. they are looking old in a lot of games and Gronk is always one hit from falling apart completely)
Bears (#1 defense but I still do not believe in their offense against another quality defense. If Mitchie T's legs are contained, I can see them having a very hard time putting up points).
Texans (Big playmakers on defense, but if you can cover Hopkins - which not many can - I think you can cause Watson to crap the bed)
Chargers (few teams find a way to blow it more. A HOF QB and top-10 defense - but you just always have the feeling the Chargers will implode when it matters most).
Seahawks (defense has been playing well and Russell can't be counted out - but I still think they can be shut down


I hate picking the Chiefs since they are a top seed - but Andy Reid has so much experience and Mahomes is an absolute animal. I think they are just that much better in an otherwise underwhelming AFC

There aren't many teams that can match up with the Saints, however there is definitely one - the Rams.

Rams over Chiefs, and Ried still does not get his HC ring.

Living just outside Louisville, I've had to hear all the Cardinals fans talking about how great Lamar Jackson is for the past couple of months. I saw something on twitter the other day that said if you expanded his game averages to a full season, he'd have the 2nd most carries in the league behind Zeke. Ravens lose this weekend, Chargers have seen them once already, get up 2 scores and make him have to win with his arm and it won't happen. He's much more Vince Young than he is Michael Vick. I think the league figures him out given an entire offseason and their offense goes the way of the wildcat after 2008.

Colts win this weekend, Texans don't scare me at all, I just hate playing the Sunday night game and turning around to play the Saturday afternoon game.

Philly beats Chicago. If I were the Bears I'd have laid down against Minnesota cause you know you can beat them. That Nick Foles magic is back and the Bears are toast this weekend cause Mitch isn't a good enough QB yet. Philly 20-7.

Seattle beats Dallas because Wilson is better than Dak and if you shut down Zeke the Cowboys aren't going to do much.

Wild Card Round Predictions:

Houston over Indy. Yeah, the Colts are hot. But here's who they've beat during this streak: home vs. Buffalo, at Oakland, home vs. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Miami, at Houston (3 point win), vs. Dallas (a very good win, admittedly), home vs. the Giants and at Tennessee with Gabbert starting.

There are two good wins in there. It's going to be tough to beat Houston twice in 6 weeks in Houston. The Texans will survive, but barely.

Dallas over Seattle Dallas' defense has impressed me every time I've watched them play, which admittedly, hasn't been often. I don't love Dak at all, but Cooper has made the offense a bit better. I don't think it's a particularly talented Seattle roster, so I'm going with the better team 1-53.

Baltimore over Los AngelesChargers are a good road team, but I don't believe in playoff Phil Rivers. I think the Ravens will be juiced up. Top defense, ball control -- all they need to do is limit Jackson's turnovers and force one or two from Rivers. I never believe in the Chargers, and this year is no different.

Chicago over Philadelphia Maybe I shouldn't sleep on the Eagles after last season, but I don't think they're as good as the Bears. Khalil Mack is a wrecking ball and I think Tribusky can do just enough to win. Eagles will cover the 6 point spread and keep it close.

I'll add that a west coast team having to play the 1pm game (Chargers-Ravens) was also a factor in me picking against LA.

Seattle over Dallas - Dallas isn't a playoff caliber team. 5-5 outside that trashfire of a division. Dallas is possibly the worst team in the playoffs.

Chicago over Philly - I think I already mentioned the trashfire division.

San Diego over Baltimore - Jackson (and the Ravens) have had one win all season against a playoff team and he is without question the worst passer in the playoffs. He could be great in the future, he isn't right now.

Texans over Colts - a part of me wants to pick the Colts just on the off chance they might face the Pat's in the AFCCG and continuing to make Andrew Luck into Belichick's bitch like his predecessor... But no, this game is the Texans'.

ELI FOR MVP

Padres wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:10 pm
Texans over Colts - a part of me wants to pick the Colts just on the off chance they might face the Pat's in the AFCCG and continuing to make Andrew Luck into Belichick's bitch like his predecessor... But no, this game is the Texans'.

Peyton Manning has a winning record against Belichick in the playoffs and didn't lose to them in the playoffs after 2004. 3-1 in AFC championship games too.

Tigers wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:56 pmELI FOR MVP

The last two seasons have reduced Giants' fans brains to this and it pleases me.

Especially in Texas, when I tell people I’m a Giants fan and not a Pats fan they always say, ‘Well you must hate the Patriots.’

Think they’re surprised when I say I don’t. They are responsible for some of my absolute favorite sports memories.

Exactly, Z. Watching Brady and fans wimper after the Giants broke up that imperfect season was an all-time sports highlight.

Guys, as well all know, winning the Super Bowl would've been icing on the cake, going undefeated and not winning the title is what really mattered

A 6th title would've been icing on the cake, but I can't complain about 5.

Was hoping to see Texans in the Div round, but the Texans blew it early. Of the two remaining I'd prefer to see the Pats face the Chargers. The weather is currently looking cold with a chance of snow, which is rough on a West coast team, and also favors the Pats current offense more. It's no secret this is the weakest the Pats have looked in a while and I'll take any edge possible.

I'll go ahead and pick the Colts over Chiefs now. Reid is a great GM, possibly the best in the NFL, but now that Marvin Lewis is gone, I think he has a solid hold on being the worst playoff coach in the NFL.

That career 9-15 mark is real impressive.

Dang so a bad QB like that got a third of his wins against your team. Add in Jake Plummer and looks like y'all just got lucky a few times.

I'd hate to be a Bears fan right now, can't imagine losing like that

Cardinals wrote: ↑Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:20 pm I'd hate to be a Bears fan right now, can't imagine losing like that

It's a yearly occurrence for Vikings fans.

Wish I saw this thread earlier. I was 4-0 on my picks this weekend and made some nice coin .

For next weekend I got:

Colts over Chiefs: Colts D is very good and Chiefs D is not. Kareem Hunt loss has been glaring. Keep Tyreek from going over the top and you win. Luck didn't have his best game this weekend, but he didn't have to. Next weekend will be his best game. ALL IN ON COLTS.

Chargers over Pats: I don't have a feel for this game right now, but I am taking Rivers/Gordon/Allen and the Chargers D to win for now. Might change my mind.

Eagles over Saints: I don't bet against Big Dick Nick, you shouldn't either.

Cowboys over Rams: Goff is a bitch.

DOGS WEEK AGAIN.

I won most of my money this weekend on Eagles, Colts, and Chargers money lines. Didn't take the Seahawks money line but I had them in every teaser. I'm feeling the teasers again this weekend. Give me points on the dogs. I think all of these games are going to be close.

Go Birds.

Cardinals wrote: ↑Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:20 pm Dang so a bad QB like that got a third of his wins against your team. Add in Jake Plummer and looks like y'all just got lucky a few times.

I'd hate to be a Bears fan right now, can't imagine losing like that

Brutal, not Bartman or Steve Garvey bad, but pretty close.

My 8 year old dropped an f bomb after the kick, and my older son looked like he could murder someone. It brought back some memories of brutal, crushing losses during my childhood with the Cubs and Huskers. The Blackhawks and Cubs have been successful in similar situations in the last ten years, my kids haven't yet learned to expect the worst with Chicago teams.

Parkey sucked ass all year, this one's on the gm and coach for not bringing another kicker in after he missed three kicks against the Lions around mid-season, a game winner against Miami (would've had the bye this week) and a gimme in the first game against Green Bay. At least Mitch came through in the clutch, it was one of the few times he's been in that spot and he made some throws in the end that were absolute dimes.

Colts over Chiefs. This is a homer pick, but if you look at Colts/Chiefs matchups historically, the Colts always pull off the upset, we've got as many playoff wins in Arrowhead as KC does. From the Lin Elliott game in 1995 to the no punt game in 03, shutting down Larry Johnson in 06 and the comeback by Luck in 13, the ghosts are there. I think this is a shootout, the Colts haven't faced an offense this good all year but the KC defense isn't great and I think Hilton has a big game and Ebron gets a couple red zone touchdowns. Colts 35-28. I could also see KC winning but I'm not picking against this team.

Chargers over Pats. West Coast team, bad weather, blah blah blah. If you look at what gives Brady trouble in the playoffs it is a front four that can get to the quarterback. Put pressure on him and he's below average. That's how the Giants, Ravens, Broncos always beat him, that's how Philly wrapped up the game last year. I know there'll be snow, but this Chargers team with Gordon can play that type of game. Chargers 21-17.

Eagles over Saints. I'm not betting against Nick Foles.

Rams over Cowboys: Dak Prescott is not going to be able to win a game with his arm. The Rams offense is too good and while they've struggled as of late, I think Zeke is held in check and Dak is exposed. Rams 28-17

Cardinals wrote: ↑Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:27 pm

Chargers over Pats. West Coast team, bad weather, blah blah blah. If you look at what gives Brady trouble in the playoffs it is a front four that can get to the quarterback. Put pressure on him and he's below average. That's how the Giants, Ravens, Broncos always beat him, that's how Philly wrapped up the game last year. I know there'll be snow, but this Chargers team with Gordon can play that type of game. Chargers 21-17.

Brady is 8-3 against the Ravens and has won his last 3 games against them.

I was talking about teams that have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs, not all time record

Still flat out wrong to say the Ravens always beat New England in the playoffs. They're 2-2 against each other in January.

Pirates wrote: ↑Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:15 pm Still flat out wrong to say the Ravens always beat New England in the playoffs. They're 2-2 against each other in January.

Giants 2-0. ELI FOR MVP

While Pat G is busy doing his best "drunk blowhard on an NYC subway" impression, I'll go ahead with my picks for this week. Didn't work out for me last week, going 1-3.

Chiefs over Colts -- I think Indy is going to play ahead most of this game, but I don't think the offense is good enough to go up 2-3 scores on KC. The Chiefs will keep this close and ultimately, Mahomes and Reid will figure out where to beat the Tampa 2. Chiefs win late -- but if Indy can force two or more turnovers, they'll win. I don't think they will.

Cowboys over Rams -- I do not believe in Jared Goff in this spot. The Rams have a lot of talent but they aren't impressive. I think Jason Garrett will get the most out of his team and Zeke will carry the day.

Patriots over Chargers -- Obviously done a lot of research and reading on this game. I honestly don't believe this is a great match-up for LA. LA's strengths I think will be largely neutralized: Bosa and Ingram won't have time to get to Brady, who gets rid of the ball very quickly. The Chargers have one of the top cornerback tandems, but the Patriots don't rely heavily on huge production out of WR. Look for White and Burkhead to help control the game on offense. Defensively, Gilmore will shutdown one side of the field. If the Pats can make Rivers throw to the sidelines, they should win and cover.

Saints over Eagles -- It ends here for Nick Foles. Saints should win this by a couple of scores. Nothing to do with Foles, he'll keep the Eagles in this game, but Brees should carve up Philly's secondary.

Sets up a fun Championship weekend: NE @ KC and DAL @ NO. I'm ok going 1-3 again this weekend if a certain home team wins...

Never got around to making picks, but the only upset I'd have had this weekend would have been Colts over Chiefs, because I never bet on Andy Reid in the playoffs. For all the talk about the weather for the Pats game though, I should have remembered you never ever take a dome team in the snow. Even Vinatieri was affected. Dunno if he's done, my gut says yes, but he's still money and lots of teams need kickers... Either way, the man is a Legend.

Pats over Chiefs - I've had my doubts about this Pats team this year, as JP and Nils know, but they looked like a goddamn juggernaut aut yesterday. Dunno if they can do it again, but KC's D has nothing on SD's, and as Aaron correctly pointed out, SD had exactly the type of front that gives Brady fits and they got manhandled.

Saints over Rams - When I write Saints over Rams my gut says "Nah that ain't right". Same thing when I write out Rams over Saints. I've just got no feel for this game, but I think it's gonna be a great one. Picking the Saints because Brady - Brees in the Superbowl would be awesome.