Tigers trades Phil Hughes, Brock Holt, Athletics Draft Pick 4, to Nationals for Luis 12-Torrens, Royals Draft Pick 1, Giants Draft Pick 1,
My goal the last few weeks has NOT been to create a team that will compete next year. In fact, we're still going to be very bad next year. However, we will be better next year, with a goal of being competitive in '16, and contending in '17. While I did a good job of collecting assets and creating depth this past year, I was still banking on a lot of hope...recent trades create more certainty.
I paid a heavy price, as both the draft picks will be top 15, and Torrens is a nice young prospect. While I have maintained this draft is far deeper than it is top heavy, those picks would have assured me getting some of the people I wanted...now I'll have to play a waiting game.
The fourth round pick is fringe on where I see big value in this draft, so there will be some finger crossing, but it keeps me in the general range of the depth of this draft. Holt is a very fun player to have on the roster. His history as a plus hitter with some pop translated into his first MLB season, he can take a walk, and he plays every position but catcher. This type of positional versatility is rare, but incredibly valuable. In the short term, he'll probably find his way at RF for me.
Hughes was the value I wanted. A pitcher who has always had fantastic stuff, Phil Hughes was a round peg in a square hole as a starter at Yankee Stadium. Playing in a more forgiving park, Hughes has attacked more batters this year without fear of fly ball home runs. It has resulted in a decrease in hr rate, an uptick in k rate, and a mind-blowing uptick in control (only 16 bb's allowed all year). Even though it seems like he's been around for ever, he's only 28 and should be a mainstay in the middle of my rotation for years...so long as he doesn't become a Yankee again.
Trades
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Nationals trades Edwin 12-Diaz, Tim Berry, Phillies Draft Pick 1, to Indians for Danny Santana, C.J. Riefenhauser, Indians Draft Pick 3,
First of all, I love Edwin Diaz. I think he's going to be a terrific pitcher, and a starter in MLB. He's probably 3 years away and obviously a lot can go wrong on the developmental path, but I do think he's a good one. The pick is a very good value in this deep draft, and will provide a second strong player here. Berry is what he is, which is valuable. He'll fit either as a back-end starter or lefty specialist...but MLB caliber players always carry value.
Riefenhauser has been an utterly dominant lefty pen arm in his second run through each league he's been in. He's only 24, just obliterated AAA, and should be a strong lefty reliever who will pitch against righties on occasion. He fits into my vision of building a killer pen, like I had when I was contending. The pick keeps me in a very good range for this draft...but I'll probably miss out on a guy I really want. The reason I was ok with that was Santana. I am acutely aware that he will not hit .320 each year, but he offers playable to plus defense at 2b/ss/cf, good speed, a plus hit tool, and some pop. As some of my prospects mature and either pan out or fall apart, at only 23 & 26, Santana and Brock Holt will give me tremendous cover in terms of roster flexibility...another staple of my contending teams.
First of all, I love Edwin Diaz. I think he's going to be a terrific pitcher, and a starter in MLB. He's probably 3 years away and obviously a lot can go wrong on the developmental path, but I do think he's a good one. The pick is a very good value in this deep draft, and will provide a second strong player here. Berry is what he is, which is valuable. He'll fit either as a back-end starter or lefty specialist...but MLB caliber players always carry value.
Riefenhauser has been an utterly dominant lefty pen arm in his second run through each league he's been in. He's only 24, just obliterated AAA, and should be a strong lefty reliever who will pitch against righties on occasion. He fits into my vision of building a killer pen, like I had when I was contending. The pick keeps me in a very good range for this draft...but I'll probably miss out on a guy I really want. The reason I was ok with that was Santana. I am acutely aware that he will not hit .320 each year, but he offers playable to plus defense at 2b/ss/cf, good speed, a plus hit tool, and some pop. As some of my prospects mature and either pan out or fall apart, at only 23 & 26, Santana and Brock Holt will give me tremendous cover in terms of roster flexibility...another staple of my contending teams.
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Nationals trades Matt Wisler, Reese 13-McGuire, Athletics Draft Pick 4, Nationals Draft Pick 4, to Giants for Brett Anderson, Nationals Draft Pick 5, Giants Draft Pick 3,
There is risk all over this trade. Wisler is absolutely a #4, but will need his stuff to play up to be a true difference maker. There's risk there. McGuire is already an MLB-caliber defender at catcher, but if the bat doesn't come, like it didn't this year, he's Jose Molina...not Yadier.
The bump up to the early 3rd was nice for me, though I did drop out of my target range on the back end. There is a glut of good prospects from 30-70, and then solid from 70-100, so to move up a category works for me, I can work on that last pick.
Brett Anderson has been a terrific pitcher when he's been on the mound (even when his actual era 6.04, his FIP was 3.85), 'when he's been on the mound' being key there. While you carry TJ for life, the rest of Anderson's injuries have been pretty unlucky, with his latest injury having nothing to do with his arm. He's only 26 and will be full go for spring training next year...and, for me, hopefully not in a Rockies uniform. The upside with Anderson is that of a #2 starter, with the downside clearly being he never finds his way through a season again. My depth in SP's allowed the upside outweigh the risk here.
There is risk all over this trade. Wisler is absolutely a #4, but will need his stuff to play up to be a true difference maker. There's risk there. McGuire is already an MLB-caliber defender at catcher, but if the bat doesn't come, like it didn't this year, he's Jose Molina...not Yadier.
The bump up to the early 3rd was nice for me, though I did drop out of my target range on the back end. There is a glut of good prospects from 30-70, and then solid from 70-100, so to move up a category works for me, I can work on that last pick.
Brett Anderson has been a terrific pitcher when he's been on the mound (even when his actual era 6.04, his FIP was 3.85), 'when he's been on the mound' being key there. While you carry TJ for life, the rest of Anderson's injuries have been pretty unlucky, with his latest injury having nothing to do with his arm. He's only 26 and will be full go for spring training next year...and, for me, hopefully not in a Rockies uniform. The upside with Anderson is that of a #2 starter, with the downside clearly being he never finds his way through a season again. My depth in SP's allowed the upside outweigh the risk here.
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Giants trades Travis Snider, Justin Smoak, Eduardo Escobar, to Nationals for Matt Davidson, Lucas 12-Sims, Daniel 12-Coulombe,
With a young rotation, ChiChi and Berrios hanging around, and a pitching deep draft, Sims was available if I could upgrade the versatility on my roster. I want to say that I think Sims will be terrific. The numbers were a little down, but he was young for the level, finished strong, and the scouting reports remained level. I was hoping Davidson would come around in the second half of the season, but he just didn't show anything as I picked up Plouffe to go with Olt and Ruiz at 3rd in the meantime. Coulombe is a nice relief prospect, but I have a deep pen.
Escobar has terrific positional versatility, is a former top 100 prospect, and does not have an empty bat (43 ebh's in 433 ab's). For the first time in his career, Travis Snider was given consistent ab's after the All-Star Game, and posted a .288/.356/.524 line. He plays LF & RF, and is just approaching his prime. As a former top 10 prospect, seems like a good gamble. The final gamble was way more of a gamble. After posting back to back years that would look like progress, Justin Smoak hit a wall this year, and looks like he will be bought out. Why's this good? Because he smoked AAA in the 2nd half of the year, and I wouldn't wish SAFECO on my worst enemy. If there's going to be something to this former top 20 prospect's career, now's the time.
With a young rotation, ChiChi and Berrios hanging around, and a pitching deep draft, Sims was available if I could upgrade the versatility on my roster. I want to say that I think Sims will be terrific. The numbers were a little down, but he was young for the level, finished strong, and the scouting reports remained level. I was hoping Davidson would come around in the second half of the season, but he just didn't show anything as I picked up Plouffe to go with Olt and Ruiz at 3rd in the meantime. Coulombe is a nice relief prospect, but I have a deep pen.
Escobar has terrific positional versatility, is a former top 100 prospect, and does not have an empty bat (43 ebh's in 433 ab's). For the first time in his career, Travis Snider was given consistent ab's after the All-Star Game, and posted a .288/.356/.524 line. He plays LF & RF, and is just approaching his prime. As a former top 10 prospect, seems like a good gamble. The final gamble was way more of a gamble. After posting back to back years that would look like progress, Justin Smoak hit a wall this year, and looks like he will be bought out. Why's this good? Because he smoked AAA in the 2nd half of the year, and I wouldn't wish SAFECO on my worst enemy. If there's going to be something to this former top 20 prospect's career, now's the time.
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Nationals trades Steven Moya, to Reds for R.J. Alvarez,
Moya features top of the scale raw power, and had a terrific season in AA. Even the thought of what he might become gives me hives trading him. There are major holes in his game, and most of the prospect analysts I like don't believe in him hitting his potential, but he has off-the-charts work ethic and makeup...and has progressed thus far. He ran into a pretty crowded outfield on our squad with Snider, Holt, Williamson, Austin, and Renfroe in right.
I've been asking Ken about Alvarez for months...and I'm not generally the least persistent person on the planet. Alvarez has huge staff with the stats to back it up. Called up from AA, he pitched very well in his MLB debut, and profiles as a role 6 reliever...probably with a floor of an 8th inning arm, ceiling of a closer. He's filthy...and he better be for trading Moya for him. I think he adds the second huge arm to the pen I've been looking for.
Moya features top of the scale raw power, and had a terrific season in AA. Even the thought of what he might become gives me hives trading him. There are major holes in his game, and most of the prospect analysts I like don't believe in him hitting his potential, but he has off-the-charts work ethic and makeup...and has progressed thus far. He ran into a pretty crowded outfield on our squad with Snider, Holt, Williamson, Austin, and Renfroe in right.
I've been asking Ken about Alvarez for months...and I'm not generally the least persistent person on the planet. Alvarez has huge staff with the stats to back it up. Called up from AA, he pitched very well in his MLB debut, and profiles as a role 6 reliever...probably with a floor of an 8th inning arm, ceiling of a closer. He's filthy...and he better be for trading Moya for him. I think he adds the second huge arm to the pen I've been looking for.
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Phillies trades Neil Ramirez, to Nationals for Luis Sardinas,
Today's theme was pitchers I've asked about for a while, relievers, and players that were surplus to requirements.
Sardinas is 21, a SS who has achieved the MLB level, and is a terrific athlete. At worst, he'll be a utility player with an average hit tool and the ability to play all IF positions. At best, he's a slightly above average SS with good range and a plus hit tool. He's just a good baseball player who will absolutely stay at short...unfortunately Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Robertson, and JaCoby Jones are and will remain above him on the depth chart.
Here's a true story. I loved Neil Ramirez and his dynamic fastball/curveball combo. After a tough '12, he had a monster comeback in '13...but I just didn't buy him as a starter. So I traded him. I didn't even think of him as a reliever. Well, the Cubs, did...and he paid them back in spades with a monster year. His fastball and curveball, both historically plus pitches, played up out of the pen...and his changeup played up from a historically average pitch to a plus pitch. He has legit closer potential...but the first start is getting a full, healthy year under his belt.
Today's theme was pitchers I've asked about for a while, relievers, and players that were surplus to requirements.
Sardinas is 21, a SS who has achieved the MLB level, and is a terrific athlete. At worst, he'll be a utility player with an average hit tool and the ability to play all IF positions. At best, he's a slightly above average SS with good range and a plus hit tool. He's just a good baseball player who will absolutely stay at short...unfortunately Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Robertson, and JaCoby Jones are and will remain above him on the depth chart.
Here's a true story. I loved Neil Ramirez and his dynamic fastball/curveball combo. After a tough '12, he had a monster comeback in '13...but I just didn't buy him as a starter. So I traded him. I didn't even think of him as a reliever. Well, the Cubs, did...and he paid them back in spades with a monster year. His fastball and curveball, both historically plus pitches, played up out of the pen...and his changeup played up from a historically average pitch to a plus pitch. He has legit closer potential...but the first start is getting a full, healthy year under his belt.
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Nationals trades Brad Brach, to Astros for Reds Draft Pick 5,
Brach had a very strong 2014, is only 28, and has a history of being a solid reliever. The dude can pitch.
Unfortunately, he was 8 out of 8 rh relievers on my squad...and with 3 lh'ers, he was going to be hard pressed for innings. The 5th rounder gets me to 10 draft picks/'13's, which helps.
Brach had a very strong 2014, is only 28, and has a history of being a solid reliever. The dude can pitch.
Unfortunately, he was 8 out of 8 rh relievers on my squad...and with 3 lh'ers, he was going to be hard pressed for innings. The 5th rounder gets me to 10 draft picks/'13's, which helps.
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Nationals trades Rio 12-Ruiz, Nationals Draft Pick 2, Indians Draft Pick 3, to Reds for Mark Trumbo, Reds Draft Pick 4,
This trade came together quickly, but it absolutely wasn't easy for me. I'm a big fan of Ruiz, who's young and has some success on his resume. There are questions about his defensive home and his numbers in a very offensive environment, but he'll be 21 in AA next year...an accomplishment in an of itself. He's got a bright future. I coveted Forrest Wall with the #31 pick, but his league ranking made the chances at getting him look pretty bleak, making the pick expendable in the right move.
Well, Mark Trumbo was the right move for me. A tough year plagued by injuries, I believe he's a huge candidate for a bounce back...especially with Goldschmidt returning to the lineup. He has big boy power and a passable glove at 1b, where I'll be playing him. He showed some ok patience in the second half of the year, too. He's still only 28 and has a lot left in the tank, and I'm betting on a full season in AZ.
This trade came together quickly, but it absolutely wasn't easy for me. I'm a big fan of Ruiz, who's young and has some success on his resume. There are questions about his defensive home and his numbers in a very offensive environment, but he'll be 21 in AA next year...an accomplishment in an of itself. He's got a bright future. I coveted Forrest Wall with the #31 pick, but his league ranking made the chances at getting him look pretty bleak, making the pick expendable in the right move.
Well, Mark Trumbo was the right move for me. A tough year plagued by injuries, I believe he's a huge candidate for a bounce back...especially with Goldschmidt returning to the lineup. He has big boy power and a passable glove at 1b, where I'll be playing him. He showed some ok patience in the second half of the year, too. He's still only 28 and has a lot left in the tank, and I'm betting on a full season in AZ.
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Nationals trades Taylor Lindsey, Harold 11-Ramirez, Reds Draft Pick 5, to Yankees for Yonder Alonso, Mariners Draft Pick 4,
While I like both Lindsey and Ramirez, they were both squarely on the chopping block. Lindsey can profile as a first division 2b, but he hasn't showed his plus hit tool since 2011, is not a great fielder, not a great runner, I have a ton of more advanced options at 2b, and moving to San Diego isn't a positive park upgrade. The upside is he's still young. Harold Ramirez is a player I really liked, but has had an incredibly difficult time staying on the field. Still very young, he has been losing critical development time. He's not overly powerful, not a great athlete, and will need to stay on a corner...but the young man can hit. He also faced a big roster crunch at CF with the IBC Nats.
Alonso is a former top prospect who has struggled with hand injuries, which is not a good thing for an already lagging power tool. At best, he profiles as a .300+ hitter with solid patience, about 15 homers, and a plus glove at 1b. The reality is probably well south of that, but trading two players who would be cut for a lottery ticket and a 1.5 round draft upgrade is ok by me.
While I like both Lindsey and Ramirez, they were both squarely on the chopping block. Lindsey can profile as a first division 2b, but he hasn't showed his plus hit tool since 2011, is not a great fielder, not a great runner, I have a ton of more advanced options at 2b, and moving to San Diego isn't a positive park upgrade. The upside is he's still young. Harold Ramirez is a player I really liked, but has had an incredibly difficult time staying on the field. Still very young, he has been losing critical development time. He's not overly powerful, not a great athlete, and will need to stay on a corner...but the young man can hit. He also faced a big roster crunch at CF with the IBC Nats.
Alonso is a former top prospect who has struggled with hand injuries, which is not a good thing for an already lagging power tool. At best, he profiles as a .300+ hitter with solid patience, about 15 homers, and a plus glove at 1b. The reality is probably well south of that, but trading two players who would be cut for a lottery ticket and a 1.5 round draft upgrade is ok by me.
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Nationals trades Sean 10-Coyle, Hunter 13-Renfroe, Alex 13-Gonzalez, Nationals Draft Pick 5, to Phillies for Josh Harrison, Trevor 13-Williams, Mariners Draft Pick 3,
So this one's a doozy. Coyle is a hard hitting 2b with some concerns defensively, but he makes hard contact. However, he was running into a numbers dilemma being around Schoop, Holt, Alcantara, and now Harrison. Renfroe and ChiChi are big time prospects...but both have serious question marks. Renfroe may get rated higher as a prospect, but I think the deal could sink on ChiChi. Renfroe profiles as a classic RF, but there are some lingering questions with how his hit tool will develop and if it will allow his power to play. ChiChi has major, hard stuff. His issues are a changeup that can be too firm, and very spotty fastball command. His worst case is a late game reliever, but his raw stuff could take him as high as a #2 starter.
The two round jump in picks was nice for me in this draft, taking me just out of range to squarely into range on quite a few players I'm interested in. I'm also a Trevor Williams fan. I believe he's going to be an MLB starter, probably more back end with a mid-rotation upside, but he can absolutely pitch. Clearly the get here, though, was Harrison. Harrison plays a very mediocre short and left field, but profiles as a plus fielder at 2b, 3b, and right field. He's also a good base runner who can steal a few bases, too. I did my research on Harrison. His 2014 can be argued as a fluke, but it's almost a carbon copy of every minor league season where he got consistent ab's...and it was his first MLB season getting consistent ab's. The sum of the parts of a player who's a plus hitter with some pop, a plus fielder when deployed properly, and a good base runner is a 5 win or All-Star caliber player. He'll continue to get at bats in an exciting Pirates lineup, and will be an incredibly fun player to have at my disposal.
So this one's a doozy. Coyle is a hard hitting 2b with some concerns defensively, but he makes hard contact. However, he was running into a numbers dilemma being around Schoop, Holt, Alcantara, and now Harrison. Renfroe and ChiChi are big time prospects...but both have serious question marks. Renfroe may get rated higher as a prospect, but I think the deal could sink on ChiChi. Renfroe profiles as a classic RF, but there are some lingering questions with how his hit tool will develop and if it will allow his power to play. ChiChi has major, hard stuff. His issues are a changeup that can be too firm, and very spotty fastball command. His worst case is a late game reliever, but his raw stuff could take him as high as a #2 starter.
The two round jump in picks was nice for me in this draft, taking me just out of range to squarely into range on quite a few players I'm interested in. I'm also a Trevor Williams fan. I believe he's going to be an MLB starter, probably more back end with a mid-rotation upside, but he can absolutely pitch. Clearly the get here, though, was Harrison. Harrison plays a very mediocre short and left field, but profiles as a plus fielder at 2b, 3b, and right field. He's also a good base runner who can steal a few bases, too. I did my research on Harrison. His 2014 can be argued as a fluke, but it's almost a carbon copy of every minor league season where he got consistent ab's...and it was his first MLB season getting consistent ab's. The sum of the parts of a player who's a plus hitter with some pop, a plus fielder when deployed properly, and a good base runner is a 5 win or All-Star caliber player. He'll continue to get at bats in an exciting Pirates lineup, and will be an incredibly fun player to have at my disposal.
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Nationals trades Tyler Austin, Stefen Romero, to Twins for Astros Draft Pick 3,
Pretty straightforward deal. Romero can hit with consistent ab's and won't win a gold glove, but can handle the outfield corners and the infield in a pinch. Austin is a good prospect who came back strong from injuries in 2014, especially in the 2nd half of the season. He's probably a role 55 player at peak, but that's a very good baseball player.
With an impending outfield crunch, 2 out of 3 of Romero, Austin, and Mac Williamson were going to be cut to make way for the draft roster. In all reality, Austin probably would have survived the cut...but I do see he and Williamson as similar players. I'm now covered between '13's and draft picks in the range that I want, and have a roster of players I'm really excited about.
Pretty straightforward deal. Romero can hit with consistent ab's and won't win a gold glove, but can handle the outfield corners and the infield in a pinch. Austin is a good prospect who came back strong from injuries in 2014, especially in the 2nd half of the season. He's probably a role 55 player at peak, but that's a very good baseball player.
With an impending outfield crunch, 2 out of 3 of Romero, Austin, and Mac Williamson were going to be cut to make way for the draft roster. In all reality, Austin probably would have survived the cut...but I do see he and Williamson as similar players. I'm now covered between '13's and draft picks in the range that I want, and have a roster of players I'm really excited about.
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Nationals trades Arismendy Alcantara, Jose 12-Berrios, to Yankees for Michael Pineda, Stephen Piscotty,
Alcantara looks to be making the permanent shift to center field where his defense will play to above average with his bat also to plus...so long as he can make consistent contact at the highest level. Berrios has the stuff of a #2 starter, but will have to continue to prove his arm can hold up over the course of a season. He fell off a cliff at the end of 2013 and his stuff played down a little at the end of 2014...but nothing like 2013, which was progress and saw his star rise.
Alcantara's shift to cf put him directly in the path of future IBC Nats superstar David Dahl. This created an opportunity in rf, and Piscotty is one of the best and most advanced rf prospects in the game. He features solid slightly above average skills across the board. Pineda was my get here, though. Only 25, he will be dogged by injury concerns his entire career...and I'm probably looking at a DL stay each season. However, his stuff and command played up so high at the end of the season, I read multiple reports that placed it at ace level.
This deal is filled with 'what if's...' all around, but if I'm going to bet, why not have it be a Yankee?
Alcantara looks to be making the permanent shift to center field where his defense will play to above average with his bat also to plus...so long as he can make consistent contact at the highest level. Berrios has the stuff of a #2 starter, but will have to continue to prove his arm can hold up over the course of a season. He fell off a cliff at the end of 2013 and his stuff played down a little at the end of 2014...but nothing like 2013, which was progress and saw his star rise.
Alcantara's shift to cf put him directly in the path of future IBC Nats superstar David Dahl. This created an opportunity in rf, and Piscotty is one of the best and most advanced rf prospects in the game. He features solid slightly above average skills across the board. Pineda was my get here, though. Only 25, he will be dogged by injury concerns his entire career...and I'm probably looking at a DL stay each season. However, his stuff and command played up so high at the end of the season, I read multiple reports that placed it at ace level.
This deal is filled with 'what if's...' all around, but if I'm going to bet, why not have it be a Yankee?
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Nationals trades Neil Ramirez, Christian Walker, to DBacks for Craig Gentry, Lewis 12-Thorpe,
Jag and I had been very ineffectively bouncing thoughts back and forth for a few weeks before we landed on this one. Neil Ramirez seems to have found his home as a reliever, and while he may fall just short of dominant, he's going to be terrific. Christian Walker was a breakout prospect in 2014 who has the stick to be a solid 1b. He'll probably start 2015 back in AAA, but if Davis continues to struggle, he's probably the 1b in Baltimore in 2016 at the latest...if he shows he can handle MLB pitching.
Lewis Thorpe is the long play out of all the players in this deal, but he probably has the highest ceiling. Despite being among the youngest players in the Midwest League, Thorpe put up strong numbers across the board. The problem is that even with the success, the scouting reports on his stuff were a little down...but still well above average for a lefty. If the secondary stuff and command don't tick up as he matures, he's probably destined for the bullpen...but the ceiling is a #2 starter if it comes together.
Taking a long look at my OF, I realized that, while I have the pop...the gloves are a little soft. Enter perhaps the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Gentry has zero pop and saw his average plummet in Oakland, but he shows on-base skills and outstanding base running on top of his elite defense. He'll be an incredibly valuable asset off the bench in a variety of ways to support the squad.
Jag and I had been very ineffectively bouncing thoughts back and forth for a few weeks before we landed on this one. Neil Ramirez seems to have found his home as a reliever, and while he may fall just short of dominant, he's going to be terrific. Christian Walker was a breakout prospect in 2014 who has the stick to be a solid 1b. He'll probably start 2015 back in AAA, but if Davis continues to struggle, he's probably the 1b in Baltimore in 2016 at the latest...if he shows he can handle MLB pitching.
Lewis Thorpe is the long play out of all the players in this deal, but he probably has the highest ceiling. Despite being among the youngest players in the Midwest League, Thorpe put up strong numbers across the board. The problem is that even with the success, the scouting reports on his stuff were a little down...but still well above average for a lefty. If the secondary stuff and command don't tick up as he matures, he's probably destined for the bullpen...but the ceiling is a #2 starter if it comes together.
Taking a long look at my OF, I realized that, while I have the pop...the gloves are a little soft. Enter perhaps the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Gentry has zero pop and saw his average plummet in Oakland, but he shows on-base skills and outstanding base running on top of his elite defense. He'll be an incredibly valuable asset off the bench in a variety of ways to support the squad.
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Indians trades Wilfredo Tovar, to Nationals for Mac Williamson,
Mac Williamson can play baseball...that's the good news. The challenge with Mac Williamson will always be his age. He'll be a few months from 25 when the season starts, will be recovering from major surgery (TJ), and the swing and miss in his game won't vanish from not playing. I think he'll be an MLB performer, but not on the level I have envisioned for the current group of outfielders on my squad.
Speaking of not sexy prospects, Wilfredo Tovar fits that mold. For what Wilfredo won't do (hit for power), may not do (hit at all), he will add plus defense up the middle, he will take a walk, and he will steal a base or two. With the current group of SS' (Santana, Holt, Harrison, & Escobar) and future group of SS' (Robertson & Jones) all playing out to average at best with the glove...and Tovar only being 23...he'll find a spot on the roster until he plays himself off of it.
Mac Williamson can play baseball...that's the good news. The challenge with Mac Williamson will always be his age. He'll be a few months from 25 when the season starts, will be recovering from major surgery (TJ), and the swing and miss in his game won't vanish from not playing. I think he'll be an MLB performer, but not on the level I have envisioned for the current group of outfielders on my squad.
Speaking of not sexy prospects, Wilfredo Tovar fits that mold. For what Wilfredo won't do (hit for power), may not do (hit at all), he will add plus defense up the middle, he will take a walk, and he will steal a base or two. With the current group of SS' (Santana, Holt, Harrison, & Escobar) and future group of SS' (Robertson & Jones) all playing out to average at best with the glove...and Tovar only being 23...he'll find a spot on the roster until he plays himself off of it.
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Yankees
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Rangers trades Juan Lagares, Steven Matz, Garin Cecchini, Giants Draft Pick 2, to Nationals for Phil Hughes, Domonic Brown, Manny Banuelos, Reds Draft Pick 4,
On the surface, this looks like a step back from where my team had been heading...but it's more about getting better fitting deck chairs than shuffling deck chairs. Hughes is the best player (currently) in the deal. He has good stuff and doesn't walk anyone. He's probably a #2/3 starter, but there should be some questions about career inconsistency he can solve in 2015. Domonic Brown can hit when his head's right, but there's no fixing his fielding. I wanted Domonic Brown to work, but that glove would relegate him to nothing more than a bat off the bench for me. Banuelos had a good first year back from TJ, but he's looking more and more like a reliever as his development time washes away.
Jumping two rounds is always nice, and this draft does not stop getting deeper. Garin Cecchini had a rough start to his AAA season, but ended incredibly strongly and had a good run out in Boston at the end of the year. Cecchini is probably a Bill Mueller type at 3b, as he'll play to league average defensively with above average ba & obp, but below average pop at 3b. If Kung Fu Panda isn't headed to Fenway, he probably has the inside track at the 3b job.
Steven Matz jumped onto the prospect radar this season by slicing up HA/AA. His age and arm troubles have kept him from being considered a top prospect before, but no one questions his abilities now. Despite a loaded Mets rotation, he should find himself in the pros in 2015, and, if his command continues to progress, he has the stuff from the left side to be a #2 starter. Juan Lagares is probably the best defensive outfielder in baseball, worth 3.5 wins per year with his glove alone. He also increased his sb rate and decreased his walk rate this past season, while also hitting closer to the levels he did at AA & AAA before breaking through to the majors. He'll hold the fort down in cf until Dahl is ready, and, even then, could keep him at bay for a few years if the bat continues to play at a decent level.
On the surface, this looks like a step back from where my team had been heading...but it's more about getting better fitting deck chairs than shuffling deck chairs. Hughes is the best player (currently) in the deal. He has good stuff and doesn't walk anyone. He's probably a #2/3 starter, but there should be some questions about career inconsistency he can solve in 2015. Domonic Brown can hit when his head's right, but there's no fixing his fielding. I wanted Domonic Brown to work, but that glove would relegate him to nothing more than a bat off the bench for me. Banuelos had a good first year back from TJ, but he's looking more and more like a reliever as his development time washes away.
Jumping two rounds is always nice, and this draft does not stop getting deeper. Garin Cecchini had a rough start to his AAA season, but ended incredibly strongly and had a good run out in Boston at the end of the year. Cecchini is probably a Bill Mueller type at 3b, as he'll play to league average defensively with above average ba & obp, but below average pop at 3b. If Kung Fu Panda isn't headed to Fenway, he probably has the inside track at the 3b job.
Steven Matz jumped onto the prospect radar this season by slicing up HA/AA. His age and arm troubles have kept him from being considered a top prospect before, but no one questions his abilities now. Despite a loaded Mets rotation, he should find himself in the pros in 2015, and, if his command continues to progress, he has the stuff from the left side to be a #2 starter. Juan Lagares is probably the best defensive outfielder in baseball, worth 3.5 wins per year with his glove alone. He also increased his sb rate and decreased his walk rate this past season, while also hitting closer to the levels he did at AA & AAA before breaking through to the majors. He'll hold the fort down in cf until Dahl is ready, and, even then, could keep him at bay for a few years if the bat continues to play at a decent level.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Jeremy Guthrie, Trevor Plouffe, Astros Draft Pick 3, to Angels for Kyle Hendricks, Tigers Draft Pick 3,
Guthrie is a useful pitcher, but clearly doesn't fit into the long term plans for the IBC Nats. The 3rd round trade off is about 10 picks, so not great, but not a huge deal at that point. The hurt in this one comes with Plouffe. He's an above average 3b in a league with almost no average ones...however Cecchini, Olt, Harrison, and Escobar made him more expendable.
Since being drafted from Dartmouth, Hendricks has torn through the minor leagues with a pretty rare level of dominance for someone who is not a strikeout pitcher. This year Hendricks continued his dominance through to the MLB level, registering a 3.32 fip and 1.08 whip alongside his 2.46 era. Where Hendricks excelled at the MLB level was combining his excellent pitch sequencing with a rare devotion to advanced scouting. His stuff plays to slightly above average...and his pitchability could see him as a long term mid rotation starter.
Guthrie is a useful pitcher, but clearly doesn't fit into the long term plans for the IBC Nats. The 3rd round trade off is about 10 picks, so not great, but not a huge deal at that point. The hurt in this one comes with Plouffe. He's an above average 3b in a league with almost no average ones...however Cecchini, Olt, Harrison, and Escobar made him more expendable.
Since being drafted from Dartmouth, Hendricks has torn through the minor leagues with a pretty rare level of dominance for someone who is not a strikeout pitcher. This year Hendricks continued his dominance through to the MLB level, registering a 3.32 fip and 1.08 whip alongside his 2.46 era. Where Hendricks excelled at the MLB level was combining his excellent pitch sequencing with a rare devotion to advanced scouting. His stuff plays to slightly above average...and his pitchability could see him as a long term mid rotation starter.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Brett Anderson, 2014 Draft Pick 42, 2014 Draft Pick 119, to Mariners for Kohl 13-Stewart, 2014 Draft Pick 35, 2014 Draft Pick 107,
Brett Anderson is a terrific pitcher when healthy, and his injuries last year were not of the arm variety...which is a positive step. Staying healthy for a year, though, has continued to prove challenging. His SIM is very strong, even in Colorado, and will only get stronger in LA.
The upgrade in picks is close to a full round, so should place me in better positions to get guys I'm targeting...actually, a little more so with the 119 to 107 upgrade, as there are some people I like in the 80-100 range who I have a better chance to grab if they drop.
Stewart represents massive potential, but ran into shoulder problems himself in 2014. Scouts see someone who'll continue to gain strength to allow him to have his plus fastball for a full season, on top of three average to plus secondary pitches...however managers saw a pitcher who was throwing in the low 80's by the end of the year. I hope the scouts are right...because he's has #2 upside when it's all there.
Brett Anderson is a terrific pitcher when healthy, and his injuries last year were not of the arm variety...which is a positive step. Staying healthy for a year, though, has continued to prove challenging. His SIM is very strong, even in Colorado, and will only get stronger in LA.
The upgrade in picks is close to a full round, so should place me in better positions to get guys I'm targeting...actually, a little more so with the 119 to 107 upgrade, as there are some people I like in the 80-100 range who I have a better chance to grab if they drop.
Stewart represents massive potential, but ran into shoulder problems himself in 2014. Scouts see someone who'll continue to gain strength to allow him to have his plus fastball for a full season, on top of three average to plus secondary pitches...however managers saw a pitcher who was throwing in the low 80's by the end of the year. I hope the scouts are right...because he's has #2 upside when it's all there.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades James McCann, 2014 Draft Pick 65, 2014 Draft Pick 72, to DBacks for Chase Anderson, 2014 Draft Pick 104, 2014 Draft Pick 120,
I definitely gave up some good ground in the draft...and I most certainly gave up a useful C. Jag and I had been talking about this deal for a little, but I didn't feel comfortable giving up McCann. When Phegley just dropped into my lap, it made this deal much more appealing...though I am a believer in McCann.
I've been a pretty big fan of Chase Anderson since getting to see him a couple times on MLB Live this year. He throws hard enough that people can't sit back on him, throws a dirty change, and an above average curve. Despite struggles in his first run through at AAA (which many people have), Anderson has a track record of MiLB success that support the solid peripherals he put up in his first run at the MLB level. He'll never be a #2 starter...but he can definitely be a #4 with a few years of #3 production.
I definitely gave up some good ground in the draft...and I most certainly gave up a useful C. Jag and I had been talking about this deal for a little, but I didn't feel comfortable giving up McCann. When Phegley just dropped into my lap, it made this deal much more appealing...though I am a believer in McCann.
I've been a pretty big fan of Chase Anderson since getting to see him a couple times on MLB Live this year. He throws hard enough that people can't sit back on him, throws a dirty change, and an above average curve. Despite struggles in his first run through at AAA (which many people have), Anderson has a track record of MiLB success that support the solid peripherals he put up in his first run at the MLB level. He'll never be a #2 starter...but he can definitely be a #4 with a few years of #3 production.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades David Phelps, to Rockies for 2014 Draft Pick 110,
Phelps offers a healthy ground ball ratio, which will serve him well in Miami...and in IBC Colorado. He's a useful MLB arm that put up solid numbers as a starter and reliever in his time with the Yankees.
Phelps would have hit a roster crunch with me, so to get a 4th rounder for a player who probably would have been dropped is good value for me. Solid deal both ways.
Phelps offers a healthy ground ball ratio, which will serve him well in Miami...and in IBC Colorado. He's a useful MLB arm that put up solid numbers as a starter and reliever in his time with the Yankees.
Phelps would have hit a roster crunch with me, so to get a 4th rounder for a player who probably would have been dropped is good value for me. Solid deal both ways.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Juan Lagares, Aaron Barrett, to Rays for Ben 13-Lively, 2014 Draft Pick 3,
There's a lot of value going back to the Rays here. Barrett is a terrific relief arm, who probably does not profile as a closer...but certainly has setup potential. Lagares has some elbow issues...which may have corresponded to his offensive fall-off at the end of last year. Even with some second half struggles, Lagares is a good enough defender to still be between a 5 and 6 win outfielder...and should be about that going forward.
I've been asking Martin about Lively for a while now. I believe he ends up as a starter long-term, with above average stuff and command, he could be a #3. The #3 pick in this draft puts me at a big pivot point, but allows me to get one of the four players I think have strongly asserted themselves atop this draft.
There's a lot of value going back to the Rays here. Barrett is a terrific relief arm, who probably does not profile as a closer...but certainly has setup potential. Lagares has some elbow issues...which may have corresponded to his offensive fall-off at the end of last year. Even with some second half struggles, Lagares is a good enough defender to still be between a 5 and 6 win outfielder...and should be about that going forward.
I've been asking Martin about Lively for a while now. I believe he ends up as a starter long-term, with above average stuff and command, he could be a #3. The #3 pick in this draft puts me at a big pivot point, but allows me to get one of the four players I think have strongly asserted themselves atop this draft.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Ivan Nova, Yonder Alonso, 2014 Draft Pick 104, 2014 Draft Pick 120, 2014 Draft Pick 110, to Brewers for 2014 Draft Pick 48, 2014 Draft Pick 78, Javier 13-Guerra,
My goal was to get my roster to 50 without cutting players...and by gaining assets. I actually believe that Nova and Alonso are both quality players, but they stood as older players in areas of depth for me. Nova is on track to return from TJ healthy, and Alonso remains the starting 1b in a now supercharged lineup in SD.
I wasn't going to move Nova without getting a mif or sp prospect back as part of the deal and a 2nd round pick. I got a 2nd, a 3rd, and Guerra. Guerra is almost MLB ready as a fielder, while featuring terrific bat speed and size for a ss...but needs a better approach and to fill out.
My goal was to get my roster to 50 without cutting players...and by gaining assets. I actually believe that Nova and Alonso are both quality players, but they stood as older players in areas of depth for me. Nova is on track to return from TJ healthy, and Alonso remains the starting 1b in a now supercharged lineup in SD.
I wasn't going to move Nova without getting a mif or sp prospect back as part of the deal and a 2nd round pick. I got a 2nd, a 3rd, and Guerra. Guerra is almost MLB ready as a fielder, while featuring terrific bat speed and size for a ss...but needs a better approach and to fill out.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades JaCoby 13-Jones, 2014 Draft Pick 83, to Royals for Clayton Blackburn,
Nationals trades Juan Lagares, Aaron Barrett, to Rays for Ben 13-Lively, 2014 Draft Pick 3,
Nationals trades Adam Warren, 2014 Draft Pick 3, to Mariners for Eduardo Rodriguez, Bruce Rondon, Dilson 10-Herrera, 2014 Draft Pick 42,
Nationals trades Shawn Tolleson, Danny Santana, Anthony DeSclafani, to Cubs for 2014 Draft Pick 13,
I was at my buddy's house for New Years with a group of people, and I was telling them I actually felt like a GM last night...texting, messaging, getting trades done. Either way...Happy New Year!
All the trades made were done in the best interest of improving my roster depth, but good talent and picks moved out the door. JaCoby Jones is a high end talent, but still a big gamble. I've wrote about the Lagares trade, and all of Adam Warren, Shawn Tolleson, Danny Santana, and Anthony DeSclafani would have found places on my 25-man roster, Santana will be especially tough to lose.
However, what's coming back is really exciting. Clayton Blackburn has a floor of a #4/5 starter...but only with a ceiling of maybe a #3. He's only 21 and getting him back while giving up a lot of risk in areas I had depth made sense. I think I'm buying at the helium point for both Eduardo Rodriguez and Dilson Herrera. Rodriguez has been very erratic in his young career, but the scouting reports of him over his 6 weeks in a Red Sox uniform all said 'top of the rotation.' If he can find that consistency over a sustained period, few lefty's can touch his stuff...and he's still only 21. Dilson Herrera is a 20 year old who raced all the way to MLB this year, while accruing 51 ebh's across the way. Bruce Rondon was a mult-list top 100 prospect as a reliever, and the reports on his return from TJ are very good.
I also picked up the #13 pick, which is a very comfortable draft position in this draft, as well as the #42.
Nationals trades Juan Lagares, Aaron Barrett, to Rays for Ben 13-Lively, 2014 Draft Pick 3,
Nationals trades Adam Warren, 2014 Draft Pick 3, to Mariners for Eduardo Rodriguez, Bruce Rondon, Dilson 10-Herrera, 2014 Draft Pick 42,
Nationals trades Shawn Tolleson, Danny Santana, Anthony DeSclafani, to Cubs for 2014 Draft Pick 13,
I was at my buddy's house for New Years with a group of people, and I was telling them I actually felt like a GM last night...texting, messaging, getting trades done. Either way...Happy New Year!
All the trades made were done in the best interest of improving my roster depth, but good talent and picks moved out the door. JaCoby Jones is a high end talent, but still a big gamble. I've wrote about the Lagares trade, and all of Adam Warren, Shawn Tolleson, Danny Santana, and Anthony DeSclafani would have found places on my 25-man roster, Santana will be especially tough to lose.
However, what's coming back is really exciting. Clayton Blackburn has a floor of a #4/5 starter...but only with a ceiling of maybe a #3. He's only 21 and getting him back while giving up a lot of risk in areas I had depth made sense. I think I'm buying at the helium point for both Eduardo Rodriguez and Dilson Herrera. Rodriguez has been very erratic in his young career, but the scouting reports of him over his 6 weeks in a Red Sox uniform all said 'top of the rotation.' If he can find that consistency over a sustained period, few lefty's can touch his stuff...and he's still only 21. Dilson Herrera is a 20 year old who raced all the way to MLB this year, while accruing 51 ebh's across the way. Bruce Rondon was a mult-list top 100 prospect as a reliever, and the reports on his return from TJ are very good.
I also picked up the #13 pick, which is a very comfortable draft position in this draft, as well as the #42.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Bruce Rondon, to Athletics for Duane 12-Underwood,
Way too long without making a trade. Nils put together a couple offers for Rondon that had me interested from an overall value perspective, but not a player perspective. Coming off an injury, Rondon is hoping to find the dominant stuff that made him a Top 100 prospect as a reliever. He's downright nasty when right...but Rondon never had great control, even when fully healthy. It'll be interesting to see where he is when he returns this year.
Underwood has a big time fastball, and fast-developing, plus-flashing curve and change. He throws strikes and started to unlock his electric stuff by losing 25 pounds last off-season. The developmental process with Underwood has already been slow, but he took a huge step forward last year. If his command catches up, and his stuff takes another step forward, we're looking at an impact starter. Of course he's a pitcher, so a lot can go wrong...but a worthwhile gamble.
Way too long without making a trade. Nils put together a couple offers for Rondon that had me interested from an overall value perspective, but not a player perspective. Coming off an injury, Rondon is hoping to find the dominant stuff that made him a Top 100 prospect as a reliever. He's downright nasty when right...but Rondon never had great control, even when fully healthy. It'll be interesting to see where he is when he returns this year.
Underwood has a big time fastball, and fast-developing, plus-flashing curve and change. He throws strikes and started to unlock his electric stuff by losing 25 pounds last off-season. The developmental process with Underwood has already been slow, but he took a huge step forward last year. If his command catches up, and his stuff takes another step forward, we're looking at an impact starter. Of course he's a pitcher, so a lot can go wrong...but a worthwhile gamble.
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Yankees
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Nationals trades Trevor 13-Williams, to Athletics for Yimi Garcia,
I've been shopping Williams for a hot minute for a reliever. He's not that glamorous, but he's a legit #4 starter who does not hurt himself on the mound. He doesn't walk people, he doesn't let up home runs, and he can get the strikeout when he needs it. If he plays in front of a good defense, he could have some very legit #3 years. He was expendable because he's the exact same pitcher as Lively and Blackburn.
Garcia is a guy I've asked Nils about for a while now. He is a pure reliever profile, still young, has great career strikeout rates, and has very good stuff. His profile probably tops out as an 8th inning arm, but he's going to be a very serviceable reliever. The good news, on top of that, is that he has an outstanding zips this year, which doubles his value if he falls of a cliff before the deadline.
I've been shopping Williams for a hot minute for a reliever. He's not that glamorous, but he's a legit #4 starter who does not hurt himself on the mound. He doesn't walk people, he doesn't let up home runs, and he can get the strikeout when he needs it. If he plays in front of a good defense, he could have some very legit #3 years. He was expendable because he's the exact same pitcher as Lively and Blackburn.
Garcia is a guy I've asked Nils about for a while now. He is a pure reliever profile, still young, has great career strikeout rates, and has very good stuff. His profile probably tops out as an 8th inning arm, but he's going to be a very serviceable reliever. The good news, on top of that, is that he has an outstanding zips this year, which doubles his value if he falls of a cliff before the deadline.
