With the exception of always optimistic Bill James these are not out of line as his 3 year average has been 74/24 K/BB, 3.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 83.1 IP but his last 3 years ERA has been 06: 3.36, 07: 3.62 and 08: 4.17. Of particular concern would be his awful 0-6 record with a 6.56 ERA in his final 26 games after he was traded to Arizona.Rays wrote:Jon Rauch:
BJ - 3.48 ERA
MARCEL - 3.92 ERA
CHONE - 3.91 ERA
ZIPS - 4.23 ERA
Discussion - Roster rule changes
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The kid was 18 last year, had heart surgery and a staph infection to start last year, and still more then held his own at Low A as one of the youngest players in the league. The top 10 this year (which BA said he very easily could have made #10, AND he made their Best SS not in his team's Top 10 list), and the Sox added an '07 signing and 2 very good '08 picks. He may have slid in an arbitrary ranking system, but I haven't read anywhere where anyone thinks less of his potential. I certainly didn't pick him up for his #'s...
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The only really tangible negative or question mark that I've seen for Tejeda was this comment from Callis in his Red Sox chat:
And even that is just his opinion and only a positional question. I don't think you can read a ton into his relative offensive struggles this year. If he doesn't hit next year, you may have some concerns.As for the shortstops, I think Tejeda eventually will slide over to third base and Kelly will wind up on the mound. Dent will be a second baseman. So that leaves Navarro, Diaz and Gibson to duke it out.
Ummmm, you aren't scared off by either of those medical conditions, both of which are more likely to hurt his long term prospects and lower his ceiling than even a blown ACL? Factor in the health with the lack of power and potential position switch, and sub .700 OPS in the SAL to boot and we're talking about a guy with maybe a 10% chance of panning out, and who's going to cost a roster spot for 2-3 more years before he's useful in exchange for a definitely useful middle reliever (with a sub 4.00 era projection I'm pretty sure he beats out Brian Wolfe though who knows with DMB) who definitely would find a place in 90% of IBC bullpens with a projection like that. And meanwhile you made your road to the AL pennant that much tougher? You didn't trade Johnny Paps, but it was a pretty brutal trade nonetheless.Royals wrote:The kid was 18 last year, had heart surgery and a staph infection to start last year
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If Jon Rauch beats me with 12 scoreless ip's in the ALCS, then I'll eat my words there...
Brian Wolfe has had MUCH better numbers in the AL over the past two years (albeit far less workload).
On Tejeda's injuries - neither was serious enough for anyone to have any concern about him going forward - both were corrected. Tejeda's big calling card is his potential power - and he wouldn't be the Sox 11th prospect, or the SS of the non-Top 10 if he had a 10% chance to pan out. It's more like 17%.
Brian Wolfe has had MUCH better numbers in the AL over the past two years (albeit far less workload).
On Tejeda's injuries - neither was serious enough for anyone to have any concern about him going forward - both were corrected. Tejeda's big calling card is his potential power - and he wouldn't be the Sox 11th prospect, or the SS of the non-Top 10 if he had a 10% chance to pan out. It's more like 17%.
*SNICKER*Athletics wrote:I'll give you 14.5%, maybe 15%, but 17%? No way
I’m not arguing for the trade to be challenged. I’m mostly joking about this being a very typical JB trade, where you wonder what the heck the other guy was thinking. Any 18 yr old is a gamble, but Tejeda, as a toolsy, unpolished player who had a MAJOR medical issue (sorry, patching a hole in your heart is not minor, no matter how the Sox want to spin it) is about as big a gamble as you get. Tejeda is a kid I like a lot, but not nearly as much as a year ago. He needs to have a pretty big 2009 and I’m not sure he can do it.
he's not the Sox 11th prospect though. He's 11-13, they didn't designate a spot for him. I'd guess 12, behind Kalish.
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To be fair, that is a quite deceiving/misleading sentence. First, he only played eight A+ rehab games, and, second and more importantly, he put up those numbers this past year, and is now 23, but he was 22 when he put up all of those numbers as he turned 23 in September. He did suck in AA though (.237/.324/.346).Royals wrote:Rockstar Chris Nelson hit .230/.315/.342 between HA/AA this past year as a 23 year old now. Can someone forward that to Dr. Greenthumb?
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The funny tie-in is that the Chris Nelson rule is pretty much the impetus for the debate on the Tejeda rule.
So coming off of Pavano's filthy 2004 season, just as he was signing his fat Yankee contract, Pavano was traded by one of the worst teams in the league (forget who), to Josh Morgan, who was - bedgrudgingly admitted - one of the best GM's in the league.
To put it lightly, Josh was the Terrell Owens of the league. Great at what he did, some people liked him, but definitely a lightning rod for controversy around the league.
Pavano was traded to Josh for Chris Nelson. At the time, Nelson was a highly regarded SS. The deal passed Ex-Co, and then was resoundly shot down by the rest of the league. How it passed Ex-Co, I still have no idea. The spark this set off was unbelievable. Everyone was yelling at everyone. Josh tried to steal a lot of us out of this league to another league, and when Bren found out, kicked Josh out. Josh wanted to get back in after no one followed him to his league, and was resoundly shot down - but kept coming back on our messageboard - which, at the time, there was no way to filter.
The funny thing was, instead of just accepting the fact that he raped someone and got caught by the rest of the league, he kept arguing FOR Nelson. Even when he kept coming back, he'd keep saying how good Nelson was, and how shitty Pavano was. Except, at least Pavano kept his shittiness on the sideline. Nelson has become worse and worse a prospect each following year. So we'd keep saying how bad Nelson was doing, and Josh would keep coming back to say how bad Pavano was doing - until he finally just left forever.
There is literally no way in summarizing this that you can do what happened justice. A Low-A player with tools was traded for someone who looked like a legitimate front of the rotation starter - and then that deal was rightly shot down. The funniest part is to look back now at just how poorly both have done, as the trade happened at the absolute apex of both their values. People please correct parts I missed, or provide color commentary - I know I didn't do it justice...
So coming off of Pavano's filthy 2004 season, just as he was signing his fat Yankee contract, Pavano was traded by one of the worst teams in the league (forget who), to Josh Morgan, who was - bedgrudgingly admitted - one of the best GM's in the league.
To put it lightly, Josh was the Terrell Owens of the league. Great at what he did, some people liked him, but definitely a lightning rod for controversy around the league.
Pavano was traded to Josh for Chris Nelson. At the time, Nelson was a highly regarded SS. The deal passed Ex-Co, and then was resoundly shot down by the rest of the league. How it passed Ex-Co, I still have no idea. The spark this set off was unbelievable. Everyone was yelling at everyone. Josh tried to steal a lot of us out of this league to another league, and when Bren found out, kicked Josh out. Josh wanted to get back in after no one followed him to his league, and was resoundly shot down - but kept coming back on our messageboard - which, at the time, there was no way to filter.
The funny thing was, instead of just accepting the fact that he raped someone and got caught by the rest of the league, he kept arguing FOR Nelson. Even when he kept coming back, he'd keep saying how good Nelson was, and how shitty Pavano was. Except, at least Pavano kept his shittiness on the sideline. Nelson has become worse and worse a prospect each following year. So we'd keep saying how bad Nelson was doing, and Josh would keep coming back to say how bad Pavano was doing - until he finally just left forever.
There is literally no way in summarizing this that you can do what happened justice. A Low-A player with tools was traded for someone who looked like a legitimate front of the rotation starter - and then that deal was rightly shot down. The funniest part is to look back now at just how poorly both have done, as the trade happened at the absolute apex of both their values. People please correct parts I missed, or provide color commentary - I know I didn't do it justice...
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Post-Script: A few of us were quite friendly with Josh, before this incident, and he kept trying to lobby us when we couldn't back the deal. So he totally flipped out on us. Because of that, I had to keep writing about how shitty Chris Nelson was for so many months it just became a joke. So that's why I hate Chris Nelson, even though I'm sure Chris Nelson is a hell of a nice guy.
