Re: 2024 Padres Prospect News and Notes
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2024 4:27 pm
The Situation: The White Sox have finally decided they need a fifth starter, turning to Nick Nastrini—former Top 101 prospect and one-half of the Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn return.
The Background: The Dodgers took Nastrini in the fourth round of the 2021 draft after a college career in which the righty dealt with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, a pandemic, and control woes. Of course, LA’s pitching dev team immediately helped cut his walk rate to a more manageable four-plus per nine, and the raw stuff played up in the pros. In 2022, Nastrini threw more innings than he did in three years at UCLA, flashing four above-average-to-plus offerings and generating a 35% K-rate between the Midwest and Texas Leagues. The Dodgers can and will keep getting away with it. Nastrini ended the year ranked fifth on a ludicrously deep LA prospect list, and 54th overall in baseball. His 2023 was more uneven. He got a late start to the season, and the stuff and command back slid a bit. Nastrini looked more reliever than starter even after a better stretch run with the White Sox post-deadline. He clocked in at fifth on a team list again—albeit now in a much weaker system—but did look the favorite to break camp from Glendale as the fifth starter. And he did, I suppose, it just happened to involve a pit stop in Charlotte for enough time to get his team an extra year of control.
The Scouting Report: Nastrini is a high-effort righty, tossing a full four-pitch mix. His velocity has slid year-over-year, and he sits more in an average velocity range now, although he can still reach back for 95-plus. The fastball command is below-average and while the pitch has good carry, he tends to lose a couple ticks and the top of the zone later in starts; 93 center-cut can get turned around pretty easily. He doesn’t have to rely on his fastball all that much, though, as all three of the secondary offerings have at least above-average potential. His change-up has been the best of the bunch, sitting mid-80s with good power fade. Both of Nastrini’s breaking balls can miss bats. He’s relied more on a mid-80s slider that does generate whiffs, though it can hang out in the strike zone a bit too often, but his slower 12-6 curve flashes plus as well. If you are getting flashbacks to the “four plus pitches” great-stuff reliever he was traded for, well, that’s not unintentional I suppose. Nastrini’s command and control as a pro has been far better than in his college days, but he may not be quite efficient enough to turn over a lineup multiple times. But everyone is a five-and-dive starter nowadays, so Nastrini should fit right in.
Immediate Big-League Future: The White Sox are obligated per Major League bylaws to play 162 games this season. They’ll need a starting pitcher for all of them, and can’t keep throwing Garrett Crochet out there over a quarter of a time. Nastrini should get plenty of opportunities to work out his struggles, and I’d expect more struggles than gems, although he will be capable of the occasional flash of brilliance. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Fantasy Impact: What do you really want here? He pitches for the Chicago White Sox. Sure, Crochet is out here proving that a team as bad as the Pale Hose can have a viable fantasy starting pitcher, but the odds are not in Nastrini’s favor in redraft leagues. Forget about wins, okay? Anything you get there is gravy. So he’s a three-quarters-category fantasy play, and one who’s likely to provide even fewer innings than a comparable established big-league third-or-fourth-starter. That leaves us with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, and given his four-pitch mix … I’ve got a hot take for you.
If you believe in Nastrini, roster him early for a couple of beneficial-to-you starts against bad teams. Stream him for a couple of runs before the league gets the full book on him or hitters see him for a third time (at all, not just within a game). If his command looks bad from the jump, don’t roster him. If his velocity dips in his first start, don’t roster him. If you play in a league with 12-teams or less, don’t roster him. I actually think it’s possible that he could eventually emerge as a solid back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher due to the mix of pitches and the fact that he should get every opportunity to sink or swim on the South Side. But he should be an option of last resort, a hail mary, or a wild card, not someone you should target. –Bryan Grosnick
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bad2377d0f
The Background: The Dodgers took Nastrini in the fourth round of the 2021 draft after a college career in which the righty dealt with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, a pandemic, and control woes. Of course, LA’s pitching dev team immediately helped cut his walk rate to a more manageable four-plus per nine, and the raw stuff played up in the pros. In 2022, Nastrini threw more innings than he did in three years at UCLA, flashing four above-average-to-plus offerings and generating a 35% K-rate between the Midwest and Texas Leagues. The Dodgers can and will keep getting away with it. Nastrini ended the year ranked fifth on a ludicrously deep LA prospect list, and 54th overall in baseball. His 2023 was more uneven. He got a late start to the season, and the stuff and command back slid a bit. Nastrini looked more reliever than starter even after a better stretch run with the White Sox post-deadline. He clocked in at fifth on a team list again—albeit now in a much weaker system—but did look the favorite to break camp from Glendale as the fifth starter. And he did, I suppose, it just happened to involve a pit stop in Charlotte for enough time to get his team an extra year of control.
The Scouting Report: Nastrini is a high-effort righty, tossing a full four-pitch mix. His velocity has slid year-over-year, and he sits more in an average velocity range now, although he can still reach back for 95-plus. The fastball command is below-average and while the pitch has good carry, he tends to lose a couple ticks and the top of the zone later in starts; 93 center-cut can get turned around pretty easily. He doesn’t have to rely on his fastball all that much, though, as all three of the secondary offerings have at least above-average potential. His change-up has been the best of the bunch, sitting mid-80s with good power fade. Both of Nastrini’s breaking balls can miss bats. He’s relied more on a mid-80s slider that does generate whiffs, though it can hang out in the strike zone a bit too often, but his slower 12-6 curve flashes plus as well. If you are getting flashbacks to the “four plus pitches” great-stuff reliever he was traded for, well, that’s not unintentional I suppose. Nastrini’s command and control as a pro has been far better than in his college days, but he may not be quite efficient enough to turn over a lineup multiple times. But everyone is a five-and-dive starter nowadays, so Nastrini should fit right in.
Immediate Big-League Future: The White Sox are obligated per Major League bylaws to play 162 games this season. They’ll need a starting pitcher for all of them, and can’t keep throwing Garrett Crochet out there over a quarter of a time. Nastrini should get plenty of opportunities to work out his struggles, and I’d expect more struggles than gems, although he will be capable of the occasional flash of brilliance. —Jeffrey Paternostro
Fantasy Impact: What do you really want here? He pitches for the Chicago White Sox. Sure, Crochet is out here proving that a team as bad as the Pale Hose can have a viable fantasy starting pitcher, but the odds are not in Nastrini’s favor in redraft leagues. Forget about wins, okay? Anything you get there is gravy. So he’s a three-quarters-category fantasy play, and one who’s likely to provide even fewer innings than a comparable established big-league third-or-fourth-starter. That leaves us with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, and given his four-pitch mix … I’ve got a hot take for you.
If you believe in Nastrini, roster him early for a couple of beneficial-to-you starts against bad teams. Stream him for a couple of runs before the league gets the full book on him or hitters see him for a third time (at all, not just within a game). If his command looks bad from the jump, don’t roster him. If his velocity dips in his first start, don’t roster him. If you play in a league with 12-teams or less, don’t roster him. I actually think it’s possible that he could eventually emerge as a solid back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher due to the mix of pitches and the fact that he should get every opportunity to sink or swim on the South Side. But he should be an option of last resort, a hail mary, or a wild card, not someone you should target. –Bryan Grosnick
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bad2377d0f