All The Guardians Trades

[Astros]

Guardians wrote:
> he offered Stone or Hjelle,

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[Guardians]

343. Josh Jung, Denzel Clarke, Gavin Stone to New York (AL) for Isaac Paredes, Chase Petty

I think this was a bit of an overpay, but despite Jung's impressive 2023 rookie season, I am a tad concerned that his low avg/obp projection could put him into the DMB danger zone of performance this year. I do think he has a really nice upside, but the K/BB ratio is less than ideal. That said, I could be selling a little low on him. Paredes kind of came out of nowhere, so there's some concern that this could be slight overpay. But he does get me a better projection at a year younger. If he can maintain his defense at 3B, this will work out to an upgrade for 2024 and hopefully at least a push moving forward.

But I definitely paid for that year. Stone is a big perplexing. He's on a top 100 list, but some also believe he could be a long reliever. The Dodgers typically do pretty well with pitchers, so I think if any organization can help him reach his potential, it's LA. Petty, on the other hand, I think has a higher upside and he's a few years younger. I think his combo of pitches should work pretty well as a mid rotation starter. I'm banking on a higher upside among pitchers.

The additional payment here is Clarke, who is also top 100 on one list, and generally is top 5 for the A's among scouts. He's got a really fun speed/power/D combo for CF and I think he could steal the job as early as this year. The downside is he's already 24 in AA, so he's a late bloomer. But I think got a lot of value out of this deal. Don't anyone cry for me.

[Guardians]

344. Adam Macko, Byron Chuorio to Atlanta for Will Vest, Niko Kavadas

Fun little trade. Vest had a really nice season in 2023 and was rewarded with a good projection. Not as good as his season, but he'll fit into the bullpen. Kavadas looks like a DH, but he could sneak into becoming a 1B. I like the power and while the K rate is not ideal, he does a pretty good job taking a walk, which boosts his OBP. He's kind of a fun flier.

Macko is a lefty SP prospect who has a chance to start, but may turn into a long reliever/spot starter type since he has some control issues. Chuorio is a high-upside 18-year-old OF with a great eye and a good lineage. Brett gets a couple nice gambles and I pick up an RP I can use.

[Guardians]

345. Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Devin Williams to Miami for Ronald Acuna, Adael Amador, Edwin Diaz

A deal to remember...and man, this one burns a little. Seager is my longest-tenured player, a guy I targeted in the draft in 2012. 2012! I can't believe I've had him this long. He has been a stud all these years -- definitely big for shortstop, but an absolute juggernaut offensively and he's still managed to hold it down defensively at shortstop, despite all the rumors of moving to 3B one day. Last year, he was extra special. He hit a career-high 33 HR in only 119 games. He had an absurd .327/.390/.623 slash line.

Perhaps this pain will be healed by the acquisition of the force known as Ronald Acuna Jr. He now joins his brother in Cleveland in what is going to be an extremely dynamic outfield of Acuna/Rafaela/Tatis (in some configuration). While Seager was crushing bombs in Texas, Acuna was on his way to a ridiculous 40/70 season, slashing .337/.416/.596. We're talking about two giants in the sport right now. One is an outfielder and one is a shortstop, so there's a bit of a premium here, but both are outstanding.

Really, this deal comes down to preference. Would you rather a stud in right field or at shortstop? And, I think most would choose shortstop. But there is an age gap here, so let's discuss the rest of the deal, outside of two amazing players. Garcia, as I've written about, is tough to peg. He's elite in power, speed, defense. He struggles with the bat. But can you forgive a .240 average if it gets you VG/EX D, speed and power? Last year, he crushed a career-high 39 home runs and topped 100 runs and RBI. He also played top defense in RF. He was credited with saving seven runs on defense, while Acuna's DRS score was -2. There's a difference there, though I'm not sure how DMB would treat it.

I think if I had the choice of Seager/Garcia or Acuna/Amador in my lineup, I'm going with the former most of the time. However, sometimes you can use an overabundance of goods and turn them into elite goods. That's what I was trying to do here. Amador is a top prospect, and should be usable at shortstop in 2024. But, there is always the concern of a Rockies' hitting prospect and how that will translate to the sim. I do think if his value lies in defense, doubles power and average, he should be fine. But this is a bit of a gamble on my end. I don't like relying solely on a rookie at a premium position, but this is what I had to do to get to Acuna. Nils had been shopping for a SS for a long time and there's none better than Seager. But in order to get there, I had to make some sacrifices.

Let's look at the rest of the deal: Diaz/Williams. I'm going to get roasted here since Diaz is currently healthy and Williams is not. However, let's keep in mind a few things: Diaz missed the entire season last year after shredding his knee. He's going to have to knock some rust off, if the Mets can actually win a game and give him a chance to come in. Williams, who is slightly younger, I think is just as dynamic of a pitcher. I think you'll get fewer walks out of Diaz, but a similar number of strikeouts and possibly with a lower ERA.

For what it's worth, this ended up being a very tough trade to do, despite me picking up Acuna. Seager has held some sentimental value to me for some time, which strangely makes these types of deals difficult to make. You shouldn't get attached to players you drafted in a fake baseball league. For some reason I do, but maybe I'm alone. I don't know if that makes me overvalue him, but I've seen him as the top SS in the league for quite a while (minus maybe a Trea Turner year or two). Wander is now gone and maybe Gunnar will take the throne one day, but for me it's Seager at the moment.

Once the dust settles on this, I'll see what my team looks like and if there are any next moves I need to make. I will also need to see where Acuna/Tatis fit in defensively. I am leaning toward Tatis in RF and Acuna in LF or CF, but we'll see what DMB says whenever it comes out (hopefully soon?). Acuna will most definitely move into my leadoff position, which has been a bit of a need for some time. This allows Tatis, Olson, Albies to sit in the middle of the lineup and drive in runs. And if Amador can actually sport a .345 OBP over the season, he can bat #2 and just set the table for the middle of the lineup.

Obviously a lot can change over the season and with me it usually does. But with four strong starters (anyone catch Bieber's season opener?) still, I'm in good position to push deep into the playoffs after this deal. I'm a little light at SS if Amador somehow takes a step backwards, but for now I like it a lot. I'm losing some power, but gaining so much in Acuna, I don't know that I'll feel it in my lineup.

Like any trade, there will be an uproar of cranky GMs. I hope that is kept to a minimum after this one. I'm giving up Corey Seager, who I never thought I would give up. I mean, c'mon. He's a stud and no one can deny that. I'm sure someone will threaten to quit. But if anything, I'm giving the league something to talk about, yet again. Tatis/Acuna in Cleveland forever!

So, that's it, I'm not sure what else to say about this blockbuster. I think Nils makes out at SS and brings in a stud OF with power, speed, and defense. He's also getting another quality closer, who actually may close on his team. He's getting a lot of help this year, while I'm getting younger. Toss up. We'll see what happens.

[Guardians]

[Guardians]

345 (really). Jack Hurley to New York (AL) for Gregory Soto

I really loved where I picked up Hurley in the draft (#106). He's a bat-to-ball outfielder without a ton of power, but with a hit tool that should carry. I see him as a future LF who could fill in in CF occasionally. But I like the upside.

In return, Soto is a pretty nice setup arm, who got a pretty bland projection, though his splits against lefties are pretty strong. Typical high-K, high-BB reliever, but he's only 29. Let's hope he can improve on his numbers this year so he's more useful next year. But given the injuries to my bullpen, adding another option helps.

[Guardians]

346. Adolis Garcia, Jack Suwinski, Mitch Garver to Reds for Ian Happ, Matt McLain, Connor Wong

This was a deal that started with an ask on Connor Wong, the last remaining piece of the Mookie Betts deal with Boston. He's the Sox' last hope of evening the deal, which adds a lot of pressure to a 28-year-old catcher. But Wong has been knocking the cover off the ball (6th best in the majors among hitters with at least 80 AB...albeit with a .400 BABIP), so maybe he's Mookie 2.0! So, that's where Ken and I started. I knew he had previously dangled McLain and since I had drafted him originally, I wanted to try to get him back. More on that later. Happ is someone I have asked Ken about for years, only to be constantly rejected. Now that he's nearly 30, Ken finally decided to deal him to me. And given Ken's stated needs of outfield help, this seemed like an opportunity to expand the deal some to make it worthwhile.

This is about the third time I've traded for or traded Adolis Garcia and I feel the same thing every time -- he's a guy I know I'm going to regret dealing because he is amazing at about 80 percent of what he does. He is an elite defender with an elite arm in the outfield, but he also has elite power and speed on the bases. He's a VG/EX machine in DMB and, to me, he's an upgrade for Ken over Happ. However, Happ fills a need I was really trying to address, which is leadoff hitter. I haven't really had a solid guy to plug in at the top of the lineup for a while and I wanted to move Tatis into more of a middle order role. So, Happ will fill a need that Garcia does not -- OBP. And as a switch hitter with good splits, Happ will set the table for the rest of the lineup. For Ken, he now has a middle order RF.

Suwinski and McLain have similar projections -- Suwinski with a little more power and OBP and McLain with more useful positional value and defense. Of course, McLain has a bad shoulder and he's out likely to August, so I can see why Ken was looking to potentially make a move. I don't currently have a place for McLain to play, so I can afford to wait and see what happens. Suwinski was going to DH and potentially hit at the top of the lineup, but his defense is better in a corner and I had Garcia and Tatis. If he gets an AV/VG type projection, he can slide to RF for Ken and Garcia can play CF. McLain was a bit of a return home story. When he started hot in the minor post-draft and started moving up prospect lists, I saw him as a sell high candidate since I already had Seager at SS long-term. It turns out that Z did pretty well on that deal since Liberatore never made his mark and Marsh is good, but probably not as good as McLain over the long haul. So, McLain's position is TBD, but we'll see what happens with his diagnosis for 2024. In the meantime, Justin Turner and Jake Fraley will see time at DH, which should be fine.

All the way back to Connor Wong. My catching situation this year was largely going to be Garver and Travis d'Arnaud. Both are veteran backstops and Garver's bat (26 HR projected over a full season) was going to sit just above Rafaela at the bottom of the order with hopefully a usable defensive projection. Now, d'Arnaud and Wong probably end up in some kind of split, unless a better catcher emerges at some point. So, the bottom of the order suffers a little, but I gain some age, a better defensive catcher in Wong and hopefully a more useful projection in 2025, if he hits .350 all year.

I think for Ken, he fills his outfield out nicely with 2/3 of it coming from Cleveland, and now he has added power from Garver that he can spread around catcher and DH, giving him some added depth.

[Guardians]

347. Ariel Castro to St. Louis for Mitch Haniger

When JP picked up an extra outfield from Z and then posted a few guys available, I asked about Haniger. I would have preferred Conforto based on the OBP and arm, but Haniger has better power and will be sitting on the bench anyway. He gives me a nice bat should I need it (and if he stays healthy). Castro was an international draftee in the 2022 draft. Great upside, but very far away and has struggled with Ks. He's a nice lotto ticket.

[Guardians]

348. Matt McLain, Luis Perales to Kansas City for Freddie Freeman

I get the sense that Freddie Freeman is like owning a boat. Getting him and getting rid of him is like the best day of your life. I acquired Freeman as a budding 26ish-year-old 1B in a blockbuster with Nick in the offseason in 2016. After two horrendous seasons with me in Detroit, I posted him on the block in late 2018. I didn't offload him until 2019 at a huge loss, sending him to Pittsburgh with Max Scherzer to get Joey Gallo and Trevor Bauer. Despite his amazing talent, he is a very polarizing player in his value to this league. Larry posted him on the block nearly 10 months ago and got almost no decent offers (that he shared with me). So, he's tough to value given the league's obsession with youth over everything.

In this case, I had been keeping tabs on Freeman, despite already having a great 1B in Olson. I didn't really think my prospects alone would be enough. When I acquired McLain from Ken I knew there was probably a good chance if Larry and I were going to work something out, the odds increased a bit. But I still wasn't sure I wanted to work out something along these lines. Knowing McLain was out most of the year and coming off a major surgery meant that I could either have almost nothing this year in McLain or something potentially very helpful this year in Freeman. So, I chose the instant gratification.

McLain is 24, a stout hitter, and already with a very good projection in him. Perales is top 100 on one list after struggling with command last year and earlier this year, he has skyrocketed, turning into the Red Sox' top pitching prospect. He has an electric arm and I expect him to be on a few other prospect lists by mid-season. Larry gives up a superstar, but one who's now 34. He gets a 10-year gain on a guy who's already a 3-win SS and a fun prospect. I get what I hope will be a productive hitter to boost my struggling team three months into a season where I'm still sitting in third place.

[Guardians]

349. Blake Mitchell to Washington for Raisel Iglesias, Trevor Megill

The biggest weakness to my team now that the offense has improved has been bullpen. Romano has been hurt. Williams took a huge hit during spring training. I've been running on Kevin Kelly and fumes since April, which has been tough to overcome. So, while I really didn't want to deal Mitchell, I did. He was a stud drafted at No. 6 who dropped to me at No. 31 in the draft. And I get it. High school catcher. He's 19 and he's raking in A ball, striking out too much, walking a ton, lots of speed, good power. If he can cut the Ks by 5 percent, he's going to be a very productive major leaguer. Of course, there's risk. But he looks really good.

On the flip side, I now get two weapons for the bullpen who help immediately. Iglesias can become closer and Megill can shift to RHP setup on Day 1, providing a lot of relief in the late innings. This should hold me over until Romano and Williams return and at that point, I'll have a really nice back end of the pen. A later for now deal that I hope doesn't turn out badly for me.

[Guardians]

350. Brandon Sproat, Niko Kavadas, Yeiker Reyes to Kansas City for James Outman, Tyler Holton, Cutter Coffey

Sproat is probably in the top tier of steals of the draft, as I snagged him at No. 98. He was on my short list with a few others who went right ahead, so when he was on the board, I was happy to pick him up. I did not expect him to have the start to his professional career that he's having, though. He's hitting the upper 90s with his fastball and has a career ERA of 1.61. Of course, that won't last completely, but I would have to think he will end up in AAA by August and maybe even get a cup of coffee in his first full season. It looks like he has No. 3 upside and the Mets have done well finding solid pitching talent. So, I wasn't really planning on moving him.

I reached out to Larry on Outman on Sunday just to see what he was thinking he was worth. After offloading a lot of his non-prospect players, I assumed he might be willing to move him and he was. He keyed in on Sproat from the beginning, so we had a baseline for discussions. Outman got a really nice projection after an out-of-nowhere 4-win rookie season. Then he cratered in April and May and got sent down to AAA and replaced by Andy Pages. He is still a power/speed/defense CF who should retain value, but needs to work on hitting lefties and striking out less if he's going to be useful moving forward. With the Tatis injury likely keeping him out another month at least, I needed some depth and Outman gives me that. Whether he is a long-term asset is to-be-determined, but he's now 27 and in AAA, so this year and next will answer the question.

Holton may end up being the more valuable piece, as he can help my struggling bullpen or my decimated rotation. Injuries and ineffectiveness has created issues for me this year. So, Holton slides in with a decent projection and SP/RP projections, which plugs the ongoing leak from my team's canoe. Coffey was a toss-in as a Sox infielder who's playing well, but unsure what he really is.

After Sproat, Larry picks up a Sox of his own in Kavadas, who's also striking out a ton, but with big power and tons of walks. He's currently around 270/415/540 in AAA, which is either going to turn him into a 2025 sim star or ZiPS will discount him based on his strikeouts and relegate him to bench duty. At any rate, I imagine he's going to get some pinch hitting/starts against righties at the end of the season to see if he can be a contributor in MLB in 2025.

Reyes is a really interesting last piece. He's very far off, but has the kinds of tools scouts dream about. He sprays balls, has solid D in CF and above average speed. There is a ton of variables here, but he looks like a starter with low/medium pop, good D and good speed. It's a far off outcome, so Larry's patience will be on display with Reyes.

[Guardians]

351. Ian Happ, Travis d'Arnaud, Tim Mayza to Tampa Bay for Luis Morales, Diego Cartaya, Jacob Young

Matt and I have been talking for a bit off and on as he's tried to find pieces to help his 2024 run. As my team continues to toil for the first time in a long time, I've been open to different discussions as I try to figure out the fix to the struggles. At the beginning of the season, I excitedly picked up Happ to attempt to fix what I perceived as a gap in my lineup -- a solid leadoff hitter. Being a switch hitter with power, good OBP, solid D and OK speed, he seemed like the perfect fit. Through 85 games, he just this week got over a .200 average. He's been abysmal for me, which is slightly perplexing since he could just hit singles and still be useful. But, he hasn't even done that. I tried him for a while leading off, but I have had to relegate him to No. 9 in the lineup for more than a month. He's still decent in real life, but I'm not sure how long I can carry a .200 average at a premium position. All that to say, I was open to moving him and Matt had a hole in CF that Happ could fill.

d'Arnaud is a solid veteran catcher with good D and good power, but he's 35 and probably only has a few useful years left. Another low-average hitter in my lineup, he was not essential. Mayza has a very nice 119 ERA+ projection after a few nice seasons and this year he fell apart. Good thing DMB knew it was coming, because he was also horrendous for me. Again, it's tough to deal with a lefty who has a .345 BAA against lefties. We started discussing him before his DFA, so if he accepts his assignment or moves onto a new team, Matt will have another potential sim star who couldn't hack it in the high-pressure environment of Cleveland.

So, let's discuss the return. It's not overwhelming, but it gives me a few pieces to restock the farm and potentially play with in trades. Morales is a really fun arm. He's young, prototypical pitcher frame, flame thrower. There's a lot to love and the scouting reports suggest his secondaries are developing well with quite a bit of spin on some of the offspeed stuff. He strikes out more than 1 per IP. He's still far off, but generally considered a top 100 prospect, so that helps post-Sproat. Cartaya was formerly a top 50 prospect and then took a nosedive offensively. He still has a cannon and is working on his framing. This year, he seems to be getting back on track offensively and just got promoted to AAA at 22. I'm still a believer, so that nets me a young catcher with warts, but hopefully one who turns into a productive MLB catcher. I imagine he gets dealt by LA at the deadline, so maybe he has a growth path. The last piece is Jacob Young. He was an out of nowhere pop-up guy who gained time because the Nationals are awful. He's a speed/D guy first, but he's been very good so far this year. If he can get his OBP to .340, I'd be very happy to have a glove/speed first guy who can slap singles around. I don't think he's ever going to hit for power, but he's been worth 1.9 fWAR to-date, so that's a nice start to a career for a kid who's 24.

All in all, Matt gets help now with a couple solid vets. He gives up one higher-level asset in Morales and a couple pieces that could go either way (as could Morales, really). I get some youth across the board that hopefully help either long-term or short-term with trades.

[Guardians]

352. Chase Petty, Didier Fuentes, Cleveland Draft Pick 3 to Chicago (AL) for Max Scherzer, Chicago (AL) Draft Pick 3

*Deal was made on July 28. Just realized I never did a writeup.
Petty has been a highly regarded pitching prospect for several years and I picked him up from New York earlier this year as a replacement for Gavin Stone, who's had a much better year. Petty is still a little raw, though he just turned 21 this year and has been in AA all year. He produces high K rates and typically low walk rates. He's probably taken a few grade drops since he hasn't been dominant this year, but I still think he's a #3 starter once he gets his chance. Fuentes is a really interesting prospect who I picked up earlier this year when I started seeing some positive comments about his stuff. He's 19 and in the Braves system, which is a good thing for his development. And he's got a 12 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 ratio to-date in full season A. He's only 6-feet and 170 pounds, but the stuff looks good.

I approached Aaron after he offloaded Trea Turner, which was a signal to me that he was finally going to move some pieces for future help. Scherzer is obviously pretty risky at this point given his age and injury history (shocker: he went back on the IL two days after I got him), but I felt like he could be a fairly reasonably priced alternative to other pitchers who could help down the stretch. He's got Hall of Fame credentials -- I just need him to be active for the postseason and maybe the end of the regular season.

Due to the fact that I may only have a few weeks out of Scherzer (he's gotta hang them up, right?), I picked up about a 20-pick upgrade in round 3.

[Guardians]

353. Cristofer Torin, Jean Cabrera to Toronto for Brendan Rodgers

Once Ozzie Albies went down with a freak wrist injury recently, I scrambled to find a replacement. First, it was see if David Hamilton can fill in, which he really couldn't. Then, I picked up Donovan Solano, who has hit admirably well in the interim. As I sometimes do, I sent Dave a random PM asking about Rodgers. Among younger 2B, Rodgers seemed like one who could fill in this year with solid batting vs lefties, and provide a usable average with ok power, speed, and defense. Beggars can't be choosers.
Dave started the conversation with Torin and a pick and I countered with Torin and Cabrera and the deal was done.
Torin is a guy I got from KC last year in a deal after noticing his great eye in the lower leagues. He continues to limit strikeouts and walk at either an even or higher rate than he strikes out, which is impressive for a player who just turned 19 and is playing full season ball. He's small, so I think he's going to be a 2B moving forward, but he's got doubles power and looks like a guy who could easily spike back up if he continues to rake. Cabrera was a guy I picked up in June after noticing his 10+ K/9 IP rate and his low walk rate in A+. He's now moved up to AA as a 22-year-old and has some nice stuff to back up the stats. He has a history of high K rates and low walk rates at lower levels, so if he can maintain that as he climbs, he could be an asset within the next two years.
Dave, who's in rebuild mode, picks up two guys who could easily see FV 45 ratings next year, while I get Rodgers, who helps now, is still only 28 and still promises that Colorado power output we've been waiting on for almost a decade.

[Guardians]

354. Zac Gallen, Jesus Luzardo, Ozzie Albies, Jordan Romano, Cleveland Draft Pick 5 to Miami for Garrett Crochet, Mitch Keller, Jurickson Profar, Yassel Soler, Juneiker Caceras

This was a fun trade for a lot of reasons, the least of which was negotiating with Nils, who through our friendship over the years has become an extra level of cranky when it comes to talking trades with me. He'll happily discuss trades with 28 other people, but when it comes to he and I, it's different. However, I persisted through the adversity of Nils to work out a blockbuster deal!

My interest in Crochet goes back to January, when Zach and I were discussing him as part of the Buxton/Yelich deal. We had an offer on the table that would have sent him to me and I foolishly didn't pull the trigger. Within a few days it was reported that Crochet would be stretched out as a starter and that took him out of discussions. So, I kicked myself for that one and assumed that once he started seeing some success, he would be difficult to obtain.

Once Nils got him from Zach, I jokingly asked about him, recognizing that either he was going to be ridiculously overpriced or just unavailable. Somewhat to my surprise, Nils was open about dealing him. Obviously, he's risky. He's pitched 100 more innings than ever before and he made a bizarre contract extension request before the MLB trade deadline, which signals to everyone that he may be concerned about his health moving forward. However, the upside here is tremendous. If he is indeed a healthy starting pitcher, he represents an opportunity to pick up a just-turned 25-year-old ace, which is extremely rare in our league. So, there's a level of upside that doesn't really exist otherwise, which made him exciting to try to get.

Initially, Nils wanted something like Crochet for Gallen and Albies, which was a non-starter and probably Nils' way of trying to get me to go away, which I did for a while. We also toyed with the idea of some other trades involving Keller, whom he had been trying to trade for some time, and he had shown interest in Romano before he had surgery this year.

So, with all that knowledge, I tossed out an offer I didn't think would actually happen of Gallen, Luzardo, Albies for Crochet, Keller, Profar. My essential reasoning was that Keller could replace Gallen for the rest of the year in the sim, Luzardo is out for the year, but Crochet would replace him next year and the age benefit of a couple years would be more than made up for by the massive upgrade of Profar to Albies. As expected, Nils wanted more. He asked for Trevor Megill and Emil Morales, neither of which were going to happen, and offered back two prospects. Given that Romano is likely also out for the year but has a history of success and Nils had shown prior interest, I offered him up and we discussed some much further off prospects before coming to a final conclusion.

Nils gets a boatload of talent here. Gallen has been an ace the last few years and just turned 29 a few days ago. I think he'll settled in as a 3-win pitcher for the rest of his career, while Crochet is a bit of a wildcard. He could either be an ace, the White Sox could completely ruin him, his arm could fall off, or he could end up being a middle-tier starter. There are lots of possibilities. For next year, if he's healthy, I think his projection will be as good as Gallen's, but that's definitely no guarantee. Health, as always, will be a question mark.

Then there's Luzardo, who, mind you, caused much gnashing of teeth and whining from several all-knowing GMs in February after I acquired him. After a very poor 12 starts he got injured for the entire season. I will admit that I had high hopes for him coming into the season, but he never looked right and ended up putting up the second-worst season of his young career. While there is still a lot of upside there, his injury risk is through the roof. He's a great guy to sit on, which is what Nils will do. The natural comparison here in the deal is Keller, who is about a year older at 28 and has established himself as a solid No. 3 starter. His ERA is above average, though his FIP is a little backwards. Coming into the season with a decent projection I think aligns him to be beat or equal Luzardo's projection next year. I think Luzardo has better name recognition, but the results recently go to Keller.

The last big piece of the deal is the Albies/Profar side. This is a landslide in favor of Nils. He wisely took a flier on Profar (I and I'm sure several others were eyeing him in the spring) and he has finally blossomed into the player who was the No. 1 prospect in the land forever. I honestly don't know if this is just a blip or a real thing, but his Statcast data is off the charts this year. That said, what will that mean for ZiPS? Who the heck knows. I would be thrilled with a 1.5 win projection with VG power and usable defense at a few positions. Anything more would be a bonus, so we'll see what happens. For 2024, he's going to provide some much-needed depth that has been gobbled up by injuries.

Then there's Albies. He's such a good player as a 30-HR second baseman, switch hitter and only 27. Yet, he's fallen into this weird every other year injury situation that is frustrating. Thankfully, they aren't chronic injuries, but usually freak things (like d'Arnaud not being able to throw well), so if he can avoid those, he's easily a middle order bat. For me, he has shown power and nothing else this year, which was disappointing. His defense is also slipping. The metrics seem to show that he's not making above average plays and his range stinks. Certainly picking up Rodgers yesterday made moving Albies much easier. So, I was more comfortable but still not loving the idea of moving him.

And while I thought my 3-3 offer was sufficient, as I thought about coming close to getting Crochet, I didn't want it to slip away again because of Romano. The guy was supposed to be my closer coming into the season, but he just never got liftoff and it's been a disaster for him. I'm hoping for him that his internal brace procedure fixes his issues, but He was another guy not useful for this year and questionably useful for 2025. Nils could have another closer in a couple years.

Soler and Caceras are both intriguing but super far off. Soler is a 3B prospect in Arizona's system who FG said a few weeks ago was in a FV 50 tier based on him raking in the Complex League. He's at .303/.351/.472 in 53 games with 6 HR and 35 RBI, playing mostly 3B and likely limited to a corner infield spot. The low K rate is going to have to remain if he is going to be successful. Caceras is a Guardians CF prospect who's still only 16 (!!) and debuting in the DSL this year. He's currently hitting .352/.438/.516 in 34 games with 10 doubles, 5 triples, and 8 steals. There's a ton of unknown here, but both are interesting pieces to hang onto and see what happens.

So, at the end of this rambling post, Nils is walking away with two SP, a closer, and a young 2B, three of whom are injured currently. I'm walking away with two SP, one of whom will be in my bullpen this year, a utility guy and two far-off prospects. This one really could go either way. If Crochet is amazing, it may fall my way. If he's not, it probably goes Nils' way significantly, especially with Albies. Big trades are often complex and usually a lot of fun to put together, so we'll see what happens with this one.

[Guardians]

355. Jake Fraley and Miguel Amaya to Kansas City for Christian Vazquez and Harold Ramirez

Upon digging into IBC stats a bit, I realized recently that while I'm getting no offense out of my catchers, I'm also getting poor defense. So, I wanted to try to improve there. Once Larry picked up O'Hoppe, I figured 33-year-old Christian Vazquez could be available, so I offered Amaya, 8 years younger and a starter for the Cubs. Larry and I had previously discussed Ramirez since I was looking for a righty bat, so we folded him in and I kicked back Fraley, who is pretty similar in profile, but a lefty. Done deal.

Vazquez is one of the few catchers who boasts VG/VG defense in DMB and while he no longer hits the ball very well, he will take over a similar slot to Amaya or Connor Wong at the bottom of the lineup. Ramirez will find some at bats starting against lefties, so hopefully his .290s average against southpaws comes into play.

[Guardians]

356. LuisAngel Acuna, Edgar Montero to Atlanta for Lane Thomas

As I was searching for lefty killing bats, Thomas was a guy I was looking at, given his VG/VG power, VG arm and EX speed in the sim this year. While he has taken a step back in power in MLB 2024, he continues to be a speed demon with a cannon and an inability to get on base at an acceptable clip. That said, he should fit in nicely for my team this year and he's still only 28. After picking up Harold Ramirez two days before he got DFA'd, Thomas provides some much-needed depth in LF or RF as we wait for Tatis to come back.

Everyone knows about Acuna. He lost some luster while he unfroze, playing in Syracuse after previously playing in Texas and the Dominican Republic. Prospect publications noted that he picked up as it heated up and he has played SS, 2B, and CF this year with more than 30 steals and some power. The power profile is weird (as is Thomas') but the speed and D is there. Like Thomas, Acuna needs to hit a little better, but if Degen has a MLB-ready player next year at 23 vs one at 29, he wins. Montero is a DSL guy with a great walk rate and a shot to stick up the middle. He's very far off, but a fun flier type of guy.

[Guardians]

357. James Outman, Kevin Kelly, Chicago (AL) Draft Pick 3 to Cincinnati for Reid Detmers, Ian Seymour, Hayden Harris

James Outman was supposed to be a bandaid to get me by with Tatis out for some undetermined amount of time. He slashed .222/.318/.431 over 46 games with 5 HR and 22 RBI and 8 steals, which is fine, but across the board lower than what his 3.5 win projection promised. As such, he was a guy I was looking to move -- albeit at a loss because as soon as I dealt him for Brandon Sproat, Sproat shot up the prospect lists into a top 50 position. Kelly I really like and while his strikeout numbers have dipped, his control/command at 26 make him a valuable asset out of the bullpen.

I originally approached Ken because I was targeting Detmers. He graduated as a top 25 prospect, looking like he could be a top of the rotation type. However, the Angels are not an amazing organization, and he's been above average but not elite in his short career. He posted two 2+ win seasons before having some issues this year. However, when you look beyond the 6.14 ERA, you see much lower XERA, FIP and XFIP numbers and a very strong 10 K/9 IP statline. I would like to think he will end up being a #4 type starter next year with the hopes that beyond that he can get back on track. He just turned 25 in July, so I really like the value he brings.

After that, I was looking to pick up some young assets to balance the value. Seymour is a 25-year-old lefty starter in the Rays' system who has bounced back from injuries to put himself in a position to potentially get called up in September. Harris is in the same position, but as a lefty reliever with huge K numbers. I'm hopeful he can be plugged in next year since he has a usable projection in ZiPS this year.

[Guardians]

358. Matt Olson, Devin Williams to Miami for Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Franklin Arias, Alex Freeland, Marlins Draft Pick 1

Nils and I had discussed some variation of this deal for a few days and ultimately we ended up pulling the trigger late Friday. It was really tough to move Olson. He was incredible last season and has had a surge during the second half. As of today, he's now up to 25 HR and 77 RBI and a .450 slugging percentage. He is an elite power hitter and I'm certain he will have close to a 3-win projection in 2025. Once I got Freeman, Olson was a guy I could deal, even though he's younger with bigger power.

Williams is a top tier closer with huge strikeout numbers. I wasn't interested in dealing him, but as Nils and I continued talking through it, he zeroed on him as his second target. I got him in the offseason and have had to sit on him all year with a stress reaction in his back. It's a scary injury, but he's pitched 11 innings so far with a 2.53 ERA, so he will likely end up with another elite projection as he enters his age 30 season. Both of these guys are All Star type players. I lose a guy who's got 25 home runs for me and a reliever who's unfortunately had an 8 ERA in 9 innings since he returned from the IL.

The return was a load of young players, which was my goal coming into this trade deadline. The main attraction was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has become an elite defensive center fielder with great speed. His average is only .233, but his strikeout rate remains reasonable. If he can bring his average up to close to his minor league levels, he can be a force. In less than 100 games, he's worth nearly two wins. I think he can continue to develop into a top centerfield option since he has elite speed and defense and his bat is coming around. He showed in the minor leagues last year that he can hit for power (20 HR), so I'm assuming we'll start to see more of that.

Busch is having a nice breakout season playing first base for the Cubs. He's walking enough and has good power. His defense isn't great, but getting back a young first baseman here backfilled the loss of Olson, to a degree.

Arias had a very nice breakout season and may be knocking on the door of the top 100 lists this offseason. He has shot up the Red Sox prospect lists similarly to Kristian Campbell, who burst onto the scene in 2024. Franklin is a no-doubt SS who hit 10 home runs, stole 35 bases and kept his strikeout rate at two levels under 18 percent to-date. He graduated from the DSL and Complex League to A ball as an 18-year-old.

Freeland is on two top 100 prospect lists already and now has positioned himself to get a potential September call-up. He has now hit 15 home runs over three levels, currently in AAA as a 22-year-old, with a .391 OBP. All of this should also help his projection next season.

And the final piece is Miami's first round pick, which looks to be in the low-to-mid teens. If the pick stays there, I should be able to pick up a pretty good prospect, giving me three strong prospects and two solid, young hitters as a return. It was a big deal to make and I may regret losing the current two best players in the deal, but I love the youth movement that came in and I think it still positions me well for 2024.

[Guardians]

359. Zach Eflin, Brendan Rodgers, Michael Busch to Toronto for Steven Kwan, DJ Herz, Adrian Morejon

This was a weird trade that I really didn't count on happening, but it came together on deadline day. Once I picked up Busch, Dave made some bizarre non-starter offer out of the blue for Eflin and Busch, so I countered with this deal but with a reliever in place of Rodgers. To my surprise, he rejected that but sent in this offer. The weird thing is he didn't respond to my initial offer for quite some time, so I kinda figured it was dead and wouldn't happen. When he sent in the counter, I felt like it was too good to pass up.

Surprisingly, Kwan is the type of player I really like but have never had on my team. He doesn't strike out much and while he doesn't walk much, he gets on base at an amazing rate due to his bat-to-ball skills. While he's had a bit of an uneven second half compared to his first half, he remains on pace for a 4.5-win season. Coming off a 2.9-win projection, I think this positions me well for next year, where he is a 27-year-old leadoff LF with Rafaela and Tatis around the outfield. When Dave first got Kwan via trade, he was asking for Crochet, which was also not going to happen. So, with Kwan available at a rate consistent with this type of structure, I felt like it was worth diving in.

Along with Kwan, I picked up an interesting 23-year-old lefty SP in Herz, who has leapt two levels this year, debuting in the majors. While he won't be useful in IBC in 2024, he has brought down his ERA, BB rate and WHIP down from his projection and brough up his K rate. With 1.3 wins in 70 innings, he may end up getting a #5 starter projection next year as a 24-year-old, which will help his future prospects, if he can keep his walk rates down.

The last piece I picked up was Morejon, who is having a very strong MLB campaign as a lefty reliever for San Diego. He's got a K rate over 10 and a walk rate under 3 with a sub-3 ERA. He looks like he could end up being a dominant reliever for me next year and somewhat useful the rest of 2024.

Busch, as I previously described, I was planning on using after moving Olson, but with Freeman in-house, he was expendable. Rodgers I was really excited to get from Dave a few weeks ago, but Solano is hitting everything, so he hasn't been playing. I will re-focus on picking up a 2B in the offseason so I have some long-term options.

All in all, I may have given up a little more than I expected, but I think Kwan is one of the premier leadoff hitters in the league and he can help me now and provide future dividends. Eflin is tough to lose, but I backfilled with two young pitchers, so I think that will help balance the loss.

[Guardians]

360. Jacob Young, Ian Seymour to Miami for Cody Bellinger

When Nils and I were discussing our blockbuster deal, Nils was interested in Young to act as a backup CF for losing PCA. We had negotiated a way to include him in the deal, but I've been really impressed with how Young has taken ahold of a chance in Washington to put up a very nice season, albeit built on defense and speed. And while seeking some counsel from other GMs, some showed interested in Young should I hang onto him, so I did.

After I made a flurry of moves, I came to realize that I was sitting on 3 starting CFs and had lost some power, so probably around 11 p.m., I asked Nils if he would deal Bellinger. He said he would be open to dealing him and asked for Young and a couple names that didn't work and finally he asked about Seymour. Seymour is pitching in his first season since TJ and he's been really good over two levels, now sitting in AAA and could potentially get a September call-up. He's a crafty lefty who mixes pitches to keep hitters off-balance. However, he tops out around 91, so his deception and command are going to have to be very good for him to have a successful MLB career. He's had good ZiPS in the past and Tampa Bay works wonders, so I could see him getting there.

Bellinger is an interesting case to study. Former MVP, fell off a cliff for several years in LA, left via free agency, had a huge 2023 with Chicago and looked a lot like the old Bellinger and then this year he's been not as good as 2023 and better than the last couple years, but not quite great. He's very inconsistent. With PCA coming up, he's shifted to corners and 1B or DH and while he's just turned 29, is still not striking out much and still showing power, I want to believe he will continue to be a productive player. Who knows what his future holds, but for this year, I get elite D and good power for the rest of the season. Ultimately, I trade Young's speed/D for power/D and some veteran presence that will allow me another offensive asset for the rest of the season.

[Guardians]

361. Cristhian Vaquero to Philadelphia for Matt Mervis

Nick asked someone to take Mervis, so I made an offer. There was zero discussion and I could go either way on the deal. Vaquero I loved coming out of the draft, but he's hitting under .200 this year and he's gotten worse in his second season in A ball. He's still only 19, so the potential is still there, but I don't know if he'll hit it. Mervis has had a couple years of hype and looks like a righty-killing 1B at times. Ultimately, I have too many Cubs, so I'm going to need Pat Bishop to make a trade this offseason. But Mervis may find a spot on the bench this year for me.

[Guardians]

362. Mitch Keller, Miami Draft Pick 1, Cleveland Draft Pick 2 to Kansas City for Logan O'Hoppe, Andrew Heaney, St. Louis Draft Pick 2

Once Larry had both Kyle Teel and O'Hoppe on his team this summer, I casually asked if he would move either of them in a deal. We discussed a few things at the trade deadline, but with O'Hoppe's D projection not being great, he wasn't a huge deadline priority. We continued chatting loosely about scenarios. Today, we picked it back up and started actually creating a framework to work from. In the middle of it, Larry and Z started chatting, which progressed my talks with Larry into a deal.

For 2025, there are a few positions where I wanted to focus. I think my pickup of Conner Wong helped my catcher situation and I having picked up Christian Vazquez from Larry pre-deadline gave me a couple decent options for 2025. Vaz is all D at this point, while Wong is more offense, so we'll see how projections pan out. But between the two, there's neither stardom nor future greatness. Diego Cartaya was catcher #3 on the depth chart and he's yet to break through. All that said, there was room for improvement. Larry and I talked about both O'Hoppe and Teel and while I really like Teel and hope he can make it as a backstop, there were two things driving me to O'Hoppe. First, he's got a track record. With Teel, he comes with the risk of not having made it out of the minors, though I think he will by next summer. And I really didn't need any more lefties. My park favors lefties slightly more than righties, but I wanted a little balance. Plus, I think O'Hoppe will project as a plus D, plus power catcher, so if he can start, that allows me to move Wong to different places if his offensive profile is good.

Keller was a guy Larry was interested in and since I currently have good starting pitching depth, I was ok moving him. He had another decent season, but below expectations. I think his 2025 will be better, but as far as projections go, he may dip a tad for 2025. Still, he should be a 2-2.5 win SP, which is #3 territory. There is an age gap there, so Larry wanted a little more added on. He wanted the Marlins draft pick I picked up at the deadline, and while I didn't want to move it, it ended up being #19 overall. Since Nils has been trying to lose since April, I originally expected it to be an early teens pick, but since he backed into barely missing the playoffs, the pick got worse in the last month. In this draft, I think that's slightly outside the window of the top tier, but that obviously remains to be seen.

Heaney helps me maintain my pitching depth. He turned in a 2-win season despite going 5-14. He's 33, so he's merely good depth at this point, so if he can be healthy for 2025, I think he'll get me a 1.5 win projection that I can use as a #5. Larry wanted a slight 2nd round draft improvement, which wasn't a deal breaker.

Ultimately, I dealt from a position of strength and improved a position of weakness. Larry further stabilized his pitching staff, moved a catcher, which was also a position of strength for him, and he added draft pick capital. Obviously when picks and prospects are involved, the outcome is unknown, but I think both teams accomplished goals with this one.

[Guardians]

363. Luis Morales, Cardinals Draft Pick 2 to St. Louis for Tommy Edman, Tyler Rogers

I had mentioned to JP toward the end of the season that I was interested in Edman. I didn't necessarily need him, but a switch hitter who can play 3-4 positions is valuable. While he missed a lot of time early in the season, he put up solid enough numbers in a small sample size and shined in the postseason. Coming off a 2024 3.1 win projection, I think he's going to have a lot of value next season. And while I am flush with outfielders, picking up Edman freed up other players to be moved (this, in writing, is called foreshadowing). Rogers, too, helps fill a void. My bullpen was a disaster in 2024. I blew 24 saves as a team, after injuries piled up early in the season. By adding to the bullpen, I'm hoping Rogers gives me the depth I need to ensure this isn't a weakness in 2025.

The main prize for JP here is Morales, a top 75-100 prospect in Oakland's system. The stuff is very good -- he gets great grades for his pitchability and ability to mix pitches. His command needs to improve, but among young pitchers, he's at the top of the list. I also added in JP's 2nd round pick, so he adds to his draft pick pool. For a rebuilding team, he gets a top 100 guy and probably a FV 40 guy. I pick up a 29-year-old likely starting CF and a key bullpen piece.

[Guardians]

364. Cody Bellinger, David Hamilton to Toronto for Nick Lodolo, Kansas City Draft Pick 2

Dave asked about Bellinger at the beginning of the offseason and I just didn't see a scenario that really worked. Knowing that he was pretty high on Lodolo, I didn't really engage in trade talks. Once I got Edman, I felt pretty strongly that I could afford to move Bellinger, who was going to probably start in CF and backup at 1B. I think he'll end up with a 2+ win projection with AV/VG power and some speed.

So, I just asked about Lodolo and the deal was worked out from there. Both of us felt the value of the two main players was pretty close since both players have been up and down. With Lodolo, I'm getting a young lefty SP and one of my offseason goals was upgrading young SP, so it checked a box.

In Hamilton, Dave gets a really speedy 2B/SS/CF type who actually had a really nice, yet shortened, 2024. 1.7 fWAR in less than 100 games should turn out a borderline startable projection. In KC's 2nd round pick, I recoup the 2nd I lost to JP and right after the end of the 1st round.