World Cup Discussion

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:04 am

I can just keep dropping in updated SPI ratings from ESPN, but the spreadsheet just spits out the odds a game will go 1 way or the other or tie.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:31 am

With Spain out, my updated sim shows Chile going to the semi-finals and losing to Argentina.

Today's matches:
Colombia: 57% chance of winning
Ivory Coast: 3%
Draw: 40%:

Uruguay: 17%
England: 26%
Draw: 57%

Japan: 15%
Greece: 29%
Draw: 56%

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:08 pm

If those draw odds are anything close to correct you could make a fortune betting it, the lines on draws are closer to 33% or less.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:25 am

You're right, I think I'm having it select the middle 30% of results to be ties, but really it's selecting the middle 30% range of a bell curve, which would be far greater than 30% of the events. I have some ideas as to how to make it predict scores, so I'll try that and see what kind of results it produces.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:19 am

Sneaky huge game today given the worldwide relevance of the BPL (or EPL) with Costa Rica/Italy today. If Italy wins by a goal, the England/Costa Rica game will be all sorts of fun.

Also, Orlando City signed Kaka. Big get for MLS.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 8:51 pm

Wow, we really know how to make the rest of the world very happy. Unreal how we screwed ourselves with less than 10 seconds left.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:49 pm

Tigers wrote:Wow, we really know how to make the rest of the world very happy. Unreal how we screwed ourselves with less than 10 seconds left.

Doesn't matter what sport you are playing, never let them get behind you deep. The Portugal player just wanted it a little bit more than the American defenders.

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:02 am

I'm sorry, but if Bradley kicks that ball into the stands its not even an issue. It was a major mistake and as soon as he just watched that ball go by I knew something big was going to happen. Poor effort from Bradley turns into a huge mistake. Not a great game for him.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 10:27 am

I don't want to put blame on Bradley because really he set up a lot of the success we did have in that match. The goal he should have had? It sucks, but he did put it on net and 99 times out of 100 it goes in. He looked toast late in the game, and I was yelling for him to be subbed out. He was robbed of the ball there at mid field because he was clearly mentally and physically exhausted.

But let's not be down over that game. We were all begging for at least 1 point going in, and we got it. After that terrible first goal we gave up, I'm thrilled we still managed to come out with a point. That goal by Jones was absolutely sick and Dempsey is proving to be an outstanding captain. Howard made a couple mistakes, but had quite a bit of luck on his side and also made some phenomenal saves. Going into this tournament, if you would have told me we'd take 4 points from Ghana and Portugal, I would have been thrilled.

I'm pretty confident in saying this Group G is the best group in the World Cup (the rankings of the 25 people in my world WC pool agree as well), and we're favorites to advance. That's quite impressive for a US squad that's often overlooked by the international community. Meanwhile Spain and England are heading home. Play a solid match on Thursday, and it will all be up to the World Cup gods, but I like our chances.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 10:31 am

Orioles wrote:I don't want to put blame on Bradley because really he set up a lot of the success we did have in that match. The goal he should have had? It sucks, but he did put it on net and 99 times out of 100 it goes in. He looked toast late in the game, and I was yelling for him to be subbed out. He was robbed of the ball there at mid field because he was clearly mentally and physically exhausted.

But let's not be down over that game. We were all begging for at least 1 point going in, and we got it. After that terrible first goal we gave up, I'm thrilled we still managed to come out with a point. That goal by Jones was absolutely sick and Dempsey is proving to be an outstanding captain. Howard made a couple mistakes, but had quite a bit of luck on his side and also made some phenomenal saves. Going into this tournament, if you would have told me we'd take 4 points from Ghana and Portugal, I would have been thrilled.

I'm pretty confident in saying this Group G is the best group in the World Cup (the rankings of the 25 people in my world WC pool agree as well), and we're favorites to advance. That's quite impressive for a US squad that's often overlooked by the international community. Meanwhile Spain and England are heading home. Play a solid match on Thursday, and it will all be up to the World Cup gods, but I like our chances.

I completely agree here. Bradley was gassed and yeah, it really sucks that he lost the ball (although the defensive breakdown behind him wasn't exactly blameless in the equalizer either). I'm satisfied with the four points (though a bit disappointed that we were sodamnclose to six) and our ~75% chance to move on. Ties all around on Thursday will make my day.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 10:54 am

I tweeted that if you gave me 1 point before the match, I would have been in...but it was a little gutting. However, we played very very well. Tough to blame anyone on that one...Ronaldo is a great, great player who hit a spectacular ball.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:50 am

Feel like you took a shot to the gut? Just watch this a few times and feel better.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:13 pm

Alright, I got my simulator thing to predict goal differential of a game
Against Germany, the US has an 18% chance of a draw, 14% chance of winning, 68% chance of losing. So you might be thinking it doesn't look good for the US if that's the case, but there are many scenerios where the US advances. Here's a chart you may have seen already that shows how the US can advance.

USA-5 means the US loses by 5 goals, which I found to be a 4% chance. GHA-5 means Ghana loses by 5 goals, which I found to be a 2% chance. Green means US advances.

I found a green result to be a 65.6% probability. So it's nice to know the odds that Germany beats us is about the same odds that we advance.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:06 pm

So JP goes: "nice, go Uruguay?"

I figure he watched it.

I said: "Suarez is on an interminable quest to be hated forever"

JP goes: "i didn't watch any of it. did he bite someone?"

He's got to be done for the World Cup and at least a year at this point.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:21 pm

I particularly liked his rolling about on the ground holding his face. No shit your teeth hurt...you just bit into a goddamned shoulder.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:52 pm

So he got away with it, then proceeded to lace a corner kick that Godin knocked in for the only goal of the game.

But... this also occured before the bite:
https://v.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/B65C6F55 ... kbIT0Fmtts
and
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/7892E7 ... Wu8fm1NJ4Q
Both players were carded, the first a yellow that would have resulted in a suspension had Italy advanced, and the second a red card that forced Italy down to 10 men for the rest of the game.

Had Suarez been caught, they would have been at 10 v 10 the rest of the game and there's a decent chance the end result would have been different. Italy has to be pissed about that 1.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:55 pm

Don't undersell Balotelli's yellow in this game, too...not just the resulting suspension. Given his craziness, Italy was forced to sub him off at half. They could have used him at the end there...

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:24 pm

Heard a rumor Suarez is getting a 2 year fifa ban

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:08 am

Orioles wrote:Feel like you took a shot to the gut? Just watch this a few times and feel better.

Ok, Z, explain how this isn't garbage:

http://deadspin.com/mls-used-a-blind-dr ... socialflow

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:01 pm

MLS uses an "Allocation Order" kinda similar to MLB waivers (I think) where when a player comes over from Europe, there's a heirarchy for which team gets to sign the player. I think MLS does this to prevent teams from dominating the international signings, though having a salary cap, it doesn't really seem necessary to me. But I guess since Jones was expected to get a pretty large contract, they wanted to ditch the Allocation Order and just allow teams who have the cap space and roster space to sign him in on the bidding. I guess since most teams probably couldn't fit him in, they just wanted to avoid having the top Allocation spot team from having a bidding war to sell off their spot to whoever wants Jones the most.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:17 pm

Yea - that's pretty much it. League's all over the world suffer from competitive imbalance because there are a small number of haves, and a larger number of have-nots. MLS is successful because moderated growth has created a very balanced league. I think a blind draw is stupid, but it's better than an all out bidding war that drives prices through the roof. The fact that the league has the final say on all deals ensures that the league's growth keeps competitive balance. With the salary cap continuing to climb, the more good players that are coming to the league, the more important it is to ensure people don't get stupid like they did with the NASL.

However, I repeat, I'm not on board with a blind draw.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:21 pm

I'm still bitter that they used those allegation order shenanigans to get Landon Donovan off of the Earthquakes when he came back from Germany. Weird system.