IBC

Nationals trades Michael Kickham, to Astros for Alexander 12-Palma,

Kickham is going to figure out whether he's a late game reliever, or a back-end starter (or all the way to a 3 if the command and stuff click). He had a tough 2013, but I have very little doubt he'll rebound to a long MLB career. Unfortunately he is a little older, has a ceiling, and SIMs too well.

Palma is another lottery ticket. He was a big money signing by the Yanks, and at his best he'll feature a classic RF profile. He hit well in the Dominican Summer League as a 17 year old...but he should have. He has a boatload of talent and he has very good polish for his age. He is someone who could break into the top 100 any year...or fall off the map any minute.

Mariners trades Thairo 12-Estrada, to Nationals for Kennys 0-Vargas,

Kennys Vargas is a very nice player who's coming off of a very nice year. He had an excellent first half to the HA season, but really hit a wall in the second half. He's a first base prospect who was a little old for HA, but has very good power and a good eye. His bat should make him an MLBer, but it would appear the hit tool would need to develop to be a regular.

I think Estrada is a very underrated prospect. Not coming heralded as a big money signing, Thairo played 2013 as a 17 year old, flashed a good glove, good speed, an advanced hit tool, and surprising power against older competition. His patch is littered with Yankee SS prospects along the way, but he could move very quickly at a young age if he stays at 2b.

Nationals trades Amed 12-Rosario, to WhiteSox for Alberto 11-Tirado,

So I've become an unabashed fan of Jason Parks at BP...so I'm trusting him on this one.

Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 1 Dec
#Jays RHP Alberto Tirado is highly underrated nationally. FB already +; could end up a 7; SL/CH should get to +. #3 prospect on Jays farm.

I'm trusting him because Rosario is an absolute stud. He has a solid glove and could project to a 20-25 hr guy at SS. That's a beast. However, I have Russell, Thairo Estrada, Sergio Alcantara, Arismendy Alcantara, Jose Ramirez, etc...

So...let's see it Tirado.

Reds trades Angels Draft Pick 3, to Nationals for Nationals Draft Pick 4, Dean 0-Anna,

This one's pretty straight forward. I'm a fan of Anna, and think he was a good get for the Yankees, but he was worth moving up 20-odd picks in a thin draft.

Nationals trades Nick 11-Tropeano, Chris Rusin, Reds Draft Pick 4, to Pirates for Stephen Lombardozzi, Teoscar 11-Hernandez, Cardinals Draft Pick 5,

JP absolutely gets the most present value here, I think I get really nice potential. Tropeano will be an MLB starter, or, at worst, and 8th inning arm. Rusin, I think, is a back end starter as well. He has also been offered to just about everyone in this league at one point or another. The 4th rounder would most likely not make my roster.

In return I get Lombardozzi, a decent utility guy who's still young with a long track record of success in the minors, a 5th rounder that I will not use...but the prize is Hernandez. Hernandez has a plus glove and a terrific approach to the game. The hit tool looks like it will be plus, and there is power potential. He's a long way off, with a limited track record, but he is someone who has potential helium in 2014.

BlueJays trades J.D. Martinez, to Nationals for Ivan 11-Pineyro, Angels Draft Pick 3,

There are few teams that value picks in this year's draft less than I do. Next year's draft is much deeper in talent, and I have 13 '12's of a very high quality. However, for team's looking to build around the edges, a #65 pick in this draft can do some damage. Ivan Pineyro is an arm I really like, and one that Theo targeted from the Nats last year. He does not have knock out stuff, but he can strike people out, and has very good control for a young pitcher.

In the interest of collecting assets, J.D. Martinez is an intriguing pickup for me. The below article outlines some of the changes J.D. has made to his swing this winter, that have resulted in immediate, positive results. Now, granted this is a small sample size, but any sort of improvement to continue to unlock his top-of-the-scale power should be intriguing to teams. Taking a risk last year on undervalued assets got me some good returns this year, so Martinez fits along with Kyle Drabek on the next go at that.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rule-5-d ... -martinez/

12/19 Overall
In:
Daniel Hudson
Josh Bell
Franklin Barreto
Allen Webster
#30 Overall

Out:
Maikel Franco
Kyle Drabek
Lewis Brinson
Jose Ramirez (2b)
Matt Purke
Neil Ramirez

Thoughts:
Little different format, but this was a pretty big day. The players I gave away were players I liked, but could afford to move. For some, it was dealing from a position of strength (sp's, Brinson, & Ramirez), for Franco it was getting a high value return.

Having to cut some off my roster in front of the draft, I wanted to make sure that I wasn't just cutting people...I was getting a better value return. The pick is a nice asset to have, and there are a few offensive prospects I'm targeting in the back end of the round that would make nice additions. I'm taking a huge gamble on Hudson, but someone who is still young enough to make a full recovery...and adding a top 75 prospect in Allen Webster, who flashes supreme stuff but needs to grow his command, but has already achieved the MLB level. Barreto is a young, accomplished, and exciting player who will probably have to move off of short...but he has the potential bat and athleticism to play both 3b and of. Josh Bell is someone I asked John about multiple times, and REALLY had to pay for, but I'm excited he's here. He is still a player that flashes more raw than production, but he's a powerful athlete who had 52 ebh's this past year and a much improved contact rate and eye.

All in all, I believe I accomplished what I was looking for. I raised the ceiling level of my roster while trimming some spots without cutting players. These trades will go down as either foolish or fantastic...but I'm all right with that as I continue to grow assets.

Nationals trades Drew Hutchison, Patrick 12-Wisdom, Padres Draft Pick 4, to Rays for Rays Draft Pick 1,

Hutchison picked up a ton of momentum in the AFL after coming back from injury, and has all the makings of returning to his upside as a mid-rotation, innings-eating starter. Wisdom is a good talent, with good power, but the hit tool is certainly in question.

While this draft offers very little top-end talent, it does have some intriguing offensive players that I'll be targeting with #18 & #22. The goal to get the roster to 50 while adding assets seems to have worked pretty well.

So JP and I were chatting about our off-season's, and he very easily was able to put together what he had done.

Mine was WAY more difficult, but I thought I'd pass along the results...as best as I could make them out.

With a goal of clearing roster space (I was going to be WAY over) while increasing assets and offense...I think I did pretty well. I brought in 3 top 100 players (Sanchez, Webster, Hedges), 4 fringe top 100 (Bell, Alcantara, Escobar, & Tirado), some high ceiling young prospects (S. Alcantara, Palma, Delgado, Hernandez, Barreto, Estrada, & Gonzalez), some strong offensive prospects (Martinez, Susac, Williamson, & Lombardozzi), and still have 2 1st's upcoming...most likely to be used for offense unless some arms slip.

Out the door was a high 1st, a top tier MLB C, 2 top 100 players (Franco & Hanson), 2 fringe top 100 guys (Blackburn & Bonifacio), some decent MLBers (Martin, Rusin, Norris, Cervelli, Green, Arrieta, Grossman, Locke, Kiermaier, & Thornburg), and some more fringe prospects.

In:
2 1st's
1 3rd
Aaron Sanchez
Alexander Palma
Allen Webster
Andrew Susac
Arismendy Alcantara
Alberto Tirado
Austin Hedges
Daniel Hudson
Edwin Escobar
Franklin Barreto
J.D. Martinez
Josh Bell
Mac Williamson
Natanael Delgado
Sergio Alcantara
Stephen Lombardozzi
Teoscar Hernandez
Thairo Estrada
Victor Gonzalez

Out:
1 1st
1 2nd
2 4th's
Alen Hanson
Alex Claudio
Chris Rusin
Clayton Blackburn
Darnell Sweeney
Derek Norris
Ethan Martin
Francisco Cervelli
Grant Green
Ivan Pineyro
Jake Arrieta
Jeff Locke
Joe Panik
Jorge Bonifacio
Kennys Vargas
Kevin Kiermaier
Maikel Franco
Matt Purke
Mike Kickham
Neil Ramirez
Nick Tropeano
Rafael DePaula
Robbie Grossman
Stryker Trahan
Tyler Thornburg
Wilson Ramos

Nationals trades 2013 Draft Pick 126, Alex 0-Claudio, to Astros for 2013 Draft Pick 83,

There is nothing about Claudio that would indicate he'll be anything less than a well above average lh reliever...and maybe as much as a closer. I have 4 players I like in the 70-100 range, so moving deeper into that area was important to me. Pretty straightforward...

Nationals trades Austin 11-Hedges, Hunter 13-Renfroe, to Yankees for Albert 12-Almora, Jake 13-Johansen,

Big trade for the first that included 2013 draft picks. Hedges is a beast. He's an insanely good defensive C who has the floor of a Gold Glove winning #8 hitter. Renfroe is a bit of a question, but a player whose power and glove are good enough if the hit tool is even slightly below average.

For me, I believe I got the best player in the deal. Almora is a premium defensive CF with an excellent hit tool, and potential average to maybe plus power if you squint hard enough. I think he's a top 25 prospect in MLB. Johansen is a best of a pitcher who has outstanding raw stuff, but, at the same time, has really raw stuff. He's going to need to make major steps forward in his development if he's to grow into a starter vs. reliever profile.

Athletics trades Daniel 11-Vogelbach, Zach 12-Eflin, Felix 11-Jorge, to Nationals for Stetson 10-Allie, Edwin Escobar, Natanael 12-Delgado,

Wow...went a whole month without a trade. Edwin Escobar is a very solid prospect, but he got the SIM of a good #3 starter...and thus made his value a little higher. I have good pitching depth, many of whom ultimately have a higher ceiling than Escobar. Allie and Delgado are both wildcards, but both could be pretty good to quite good players...Allie in the "let's try this again" way, and Delgado in the "I'm 4 years away at least" way.

I've been after Vogelbach for a while. I realize there are concerns on him across the board, but he is a hitter. He complements big time power potential with an already present well above average hit tool. He has a good approach and stings the ball. The more he moves up the ladder, the more that the game power should translate.

Zach Eflin is an intriguing arm, and in the right organization to continue to develop. Eflin's a large potential innings-eater with the odd combination of present pitchability, yet still having the ability for both his fastball and off-speed stuff to continue to tick up. He should move pretty quickly.

Felix Jorge is almost the exact opposite of Eflin. He features wicked current stuff, but loose command and the stuff can be a little flaky from start to start. Jorge has plus makeup and just turned 20, so if the command and consistency take a step forward this season, you could be looking at a top 50 prospect by the time next spring rolls around.

Tough to lose Escobar, but I love Vogelbach, and am excited to add Eflin/Jorge to the fold.

Tigers trades Carter Capps, Nick Ahmed, to Nationals for Alexander 12-Palma, Teoscar 11-Hernandez,

Think this is a really good trade both ways. I need players who will be SIM eligible but have some upside, Pat was looking for potential talent without sacrificing a lot now. Palma is a complete wildcard who did not take a big step forward his first year, but has the talent to be worth his hefty price tag the Yanks paid for him. Hernandez is the prize for sure, a potential impact CF who has moved forward slowly but surely. Unfortunately, even at his apex, I don't think he will be as good a prospect as Almora or Dahl is now.

Ahmed is a plus defender at SS who can steal a base and take a pitch...and he went to UCONN. While I know Russell is the real deal, Ahmed provides a high floor SS to bide me until he's ready. Capps is someone I do like a good deal. He's young and has dynamic, closer stuff. If he can find some consistency, he'll be something special.

Nationals trades Arismendy 0-Alcantara, Max 12-Fried, to Royals for Ivan Nova, Jose 12-Berrios, Jesse 12-Winker, Ian 13-Clarkin,

Let's cover the elephant in the room first. I gave away some very strong young talent, and went in the opposite direction of most of my other trades...and I have no good argument for that specific part.

However, a few points:
1. I'm an unabashed Ivan Nova fan. In 2 of his last 3 years he has been a mid 3 war pitchers, and he has looked awesome in camp. He's also a young 27, just entering his prime, and is a sinkerballer so should age well.

2. I think Alcantara will be a stud...but it will be at 2b. You can find players to play 2b. Also, I'm not 100% sold on Max Fried. He has great stuff, but did not take the step forward most thought he would. He could still be very good, but maybe Nova is his ceiling...and we know young pitchers don't always hit their ceiling.

3. I love the rest of the return, on top of Nova. Clarkin is a lefty with electric stuff, and, with health, will rise quickly up the Yankees prospect chart. Berrios is another young arm who I've always liked and believe has a realistic ceiling of an MLB #3. Winker is guy who flat out hits. He's young, has a patient approach, and features emerging power. He will be a COF...and not necessarily a GG winner in the field...but he can hit.


All in all it was tough, but I really like my return here...but the continued development of Nova and Fried will be the keys.

Nationals trades Victor 12-Gonzalez, Sergio 12-Alcantara, Miguel 11-Castro, to Brewers for Sean Rodriguez,

There were a few things at work in this trade. I was over the player limit, I had too many players who were a long ways off, and I did not have enough SIM eligible players. That's how you get a trade like this.

Sean Rodriguez is 3 years removed from an almost 4 WAR season, 2 years removed from 2.5 WAR, and was hitting the ball hard before tanking at the end of Spring Training. He's a former top prospect who's been jerked around by the Rays...but can hit a bit when healthy. He's not young by any stretch, but I do still think there's upside.

Alcantara, Castro, and V. Gonzalez are all probably 3 seasons away from helping...but they all have very good upside. They were all dealt from positions of depth (SS & SP), so they should sting but hopefully not hurt as they move forward.

Astros trades Michael Kickham, Tyler Austin, to Nationals for Jesse 12-Winker,

This trade should finally get me to a comfortable amount of SIM eligible players to make it through this season without any painful cuts.

Winker is someone who is a very talented hitter, but the bat will have to carry as the glove is minus currently, and will only get worse. He's also a Red, which is nice for Nate.

Tyler Austin broke out in 2012, and had a decent 2013 despite being held back by little injuries the entire year. While he doesn't profile for the peak bat Winker might have, what he does have is a glove that will play and plus-plus makeup that will ensure he makes the highest level. He's also a Yankee, which makes him fun to root for...on top of the fact that there's a cool story that he drove from extended spring training to Trenton to start this season.

Mike Kickham was the ace of my staff last year, and features mediocre stuff from the left side with good pitchability. He should be able to fashion a career as a back-end starter in pitcher's parks, a swing pitcher, or a lefty specialist. Sexy, I know...

Nationals trades Zach 12-Eflin, to Reds for Josh Johnson,

Part of the rebuilding philosophy I'm using is go big or go home. Most likely Johnson doesn't recover, and Eflin becomes a back end starter and I lose this deal. However, I have had success taking on projects like Johnson, and realizing the talent down the line to improve on the initial trades I made (not 100%, but pretty good).

If Eflin becomes a part of my rotation down the line, I'll have had a lot of failures from more prominent prospects. The fact that Johnson is choosing to do another TJ is a sign that he wants to pitch again. If he gets a decent SIM next year, or comes back anywhere near the level he's been prior, this could work well for me.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

Nationals trades Vincent 10-Velasquez, Josh 11-Bell, to Cardinals for Kevin 12-Plawecki, Lucas 12-Sims,

This was a fairly easy deal that came together over text. I'm giving up some terrific future baseball players. Josh Bell is a beast who features current results, top of the charts athleticism, and power projection. Velasquez is a solid pitcher prospect who would probably get some more pub if he weren't in a loaded Astros system and could stay off the DL.

My return was a tale of two types of players. Lucas Sims is a very high ceiling arm, who flashes the stuff to pitch near the top of a rotation. The lack of k's at HA are a little troubling this year, but he has continued to deliver on the other deliverable stats, the reports on the stuff are still very good, and he's solidly young for the level. Plawecki is a little less sexy, but figures to hit his ceiling as a slightly above average MLB catcher. He's selling out a little more for power this year, giving up some patience, but has played to outstanding results in AA.

Overall solid trade for both sides...those are fun.

Nationals trades Matt Wisler, Reese 13-McGuire, to Giants for Scott Kazmir, Delino DeShields, Rio 12-Ruiz,

This was another trade that came together pretty quickly. It was physically painful to trade Wisler, who I believe will be a #3 starter for years to come and I drafted. Having a plethora of catchers made McGuire expendable, but I'm sure he'll haunt me at some point.

The return was important. Given my depth in pitching and catching, getting high upside bats was a priority...especially on the infield. Deshields, while having some character issues, is a high-speed, high-potential return at 2b. Ruiz is a potentially special bat who, while young for both levels, has picked up where he left off at the end of 2013. He is a potential first division starter at third. The Astros have developed talent pretty well the last few years, so having both be from that system was not a negative.

Kazmir gives me an important chip to use at the deadline for a trade, or he's still young enough to be effective when my team's ready to compete. Either way, he's in a good pitching environment in Oakland, and boy is he making the most of it.

Nationals trades Allen Webster, Jed 0-Bradley, Evan 0-Marshall, to Indians for Tommy la Stella, Ryan Rua,

This one did not come together quickly...as we have been talking about it for weeks in some way, shape, or form.

Evan Marshall probably doesn't have the stuff to close a game, but he is certainly good enough for a late innings job. Jed Bradley, while a little old for HA, certainly should a huge step forward in his command in 2014. While reports on his stuff are a little down from when drafted, he could certainly pitch in the middle to back of a rotation. Webster is the biggest get here for Danny. He features plus stuff with shaky command. If the command improved, he could be a #2. The challenge is that many see him as a reliever and he has been hit at the MLB level. He's keeping people quiet with his success in AAA this year, and should see a taste with the Sox before the end of the season.

La Stella is not the sexiest pick up in the world, but he'll hit and play a decent 2b. He doesn't have a ceiling of a Deshields, but he has a very high floor as a table-setting 2b. Rua is a fun pick up as well. He performed well at HA before struggling upon a promotion to AA. A young 24, Rua has decimated AA pitching this year, showing the power and patience will play. Rua played 1b last night with Gallo's promotion, as well as four games at 2b this year. I'm seeing this increased versatility as a plus, so long as the bat plays to plus.

While I would feel strongly for people to call BS that I'm done trading for the minute...I think I am. Most of the pieces I have to move will be more valuable towards the deadline, and I am securely in last. My offensive depth has increased across the board, and I still have a good cadre of young starters...with a historically deep pitching draft on the horizon. I feel like the Nats are in a pretty decent place...for 2017.

Nationals trades Franklin 12-Barreto, Albert 12-Almora, to Yankees for Marco 13-Gonzales, Hunter 13-Renfroe, Victor 13-Arano,

This trade had nothing to do with Almora's struggles. He's going to be great. This trade had everything to do with how much of a beast Dahl looks like.

Given Barreto is years away as a SS, Renfroe has big boy power and great OF defense, while Gonzales has a game-changing changeup with tremendous success up to the AA level. Arano is also a young SP who, despite not having a world beating ERA, has outstanding peripherals.

Nationals trades Erik Bedard, Scott Kazmir, Robbie Grossman, to Pirates for Junior Lake, Alex 13-Gonzalez,

This is part one of a two part trade. Kazmir gives JP someone with a strong SIM now to place into the rotation, with upside for even more next year. Grossman is 96% of what Lake provided, or 104% if you prefer obp as a 5th of with versatility. Bedard gives him a good rotation candidate who improbably finds incredibly solid sims year after year. Next year is shaping up as no different.

Lake is a complete wildcard. Most likely he doesn't hit enough to justify playing him long-term for the Cubs, but he'll get ab's this year and next year to justify his MLB credentials. Gonzalez is the get for me in this portion. Alex is nicknamed ChiChi, throws gas, and has already propelled himself to AA. He's most likely a mid-rotation starter at peak, but he does have the upside on stuff to be a #2...though that's probably a touch unrealistic until he proves he can put away hitters with more consistency.

The rest? Stay tuned...

Rockies trades Danry 10-Vasquez, Luis 12-Torrens, Edwin 12-Diaz, Billy 13-McKinney, to Nationals for Carter Capps, Kevin 12-Plawecki,

After a few steps towards more certainty, this is a bit of a sidestep. Plawecki projects as a slightly above average starting C who will hit above average, but probably field a touch below. He's solid. Capps has some arm issues, but he can be a closer at his best...and only 23.

Torrens is a 7 figure bonus baby who will be put in the corner, given light and water and hope he reaches his ceiling as a difference making C. Vasquez is a human toolshed who is starting to find success at HA at only 20 years old. He has impressive upside.

The two biggest gets for me are McKinney and Diaz. McKinney is a first round prep bat who I had my eye on last year at draft time. He's not a plus athlete, so may have to move off CF...but he has a plus hit tool and emerging power. He held his own at HA at 19 to start, but has really started to emerge recently.

Diaz is a big, big upside arm that can profile all the way up to a #2 starter. Just 20, Diaz is more than holding his own in his first run at full season ball. His command needs to improve, but the scouting reports have remained strong on his stuff. He'll be one step at a time, but the rewards could be big.

Pirates trades Matt Davidson, to Nationals for Billy 13-McKinney,

This trade certainly won't cure either of all of our problems, but there are certainly two good players in it.

McKinney has a plus hit tool, and could develop power. Aggressively promoted to HA by the A's at 19, McKinney has held his own with a .730 ops, and a surprising 24 ebh's. He's an adequate defender in center, but will probably have to play a corner. His profile at a corner isn't perfect, but if he can find his way to a .280 avg with 20 hr's, there's a lot of value there.

With two strong CF prospects (David Dahl & Michael Taylor), McKinney was a little superfluous. While I have three other 3b prospects I like (Rua, Ruiz, & Nay), Davidson offers my most advanced option. While the man will K a good deal, he has very good raw power, a hit tool that could play to average, and will probably be an average to slightly above average 3b. While struggling at AAA this year, he has had MLB success, is playing better recently, and is still a very young 23. He's a guy I would like to bet on.

We're now almost to the all star break. Can we consider updating the title of this thread or starting a new one? I enjoy your analysis but I'm very distracted by the dates.