IBC

Some further insight on how BA weights various factors while preparing their prospect ratings:

Mario66 (Toronto): To what extent does upside overshadow probability of reaching said upside in evaluating propsects generally at BA, and in particular in compiling the top 100. For example, a guy like Kory Casto seems like a reasonably sure bet to have a productive career as a league average outfielder (would have been slightly above average 3B perhaps), but when the list comes out tomorrow he will likely be outranked a number (what, 30? 40?) of guys, some of whom have pedestrian big league careers, and others who never reach the bigs at all?

Jim Callis: Good question. When we put these lists together, we're trying to balance how good a player can become with the likelihood that he reaches that potential. In general, we wind up leaning more towards the ceiling guy than the solid guy, especially when we're finishing the list. Dustin Pedroia didn't make our list -- Red Sox fans will be outraged -- though he is a safer bet than Dellin Betances. Betances has a better chance of being a star, though, and we try to find the balance between the two.

COULD'VE BEEN CONTENDERS

Former top prospects competing for jobs in Nationals camp:

Player TR* Year Team Notes

Tony Blanco 83rd 2002 Bos. Red Sox' No. 1 prospect that year
Brandon Claussen 37th 2002 N.Y.Y. One spot ahead of Miguel Cabrera
Jesus Colome 53rd 2000 Oak. 3rd in A's system behind Mulder, Zito
Alex Escobar 11th 1999 N.Y.M. Rated No. 1 in organization
Clint Everts 58th 2004 Mon. Expos' top prospect that year
Mike Hinckley 29th 2005 Wash. Two spots behind Ryan Howard
D'Angelo Jimenez 46th 2001 N.Y.Y. Yanks' 3rd best behind Soriano, N. Johnson
Travis Lee 5th 1997 Ariz. A. Jones, V. Guerrero only pos. players rated higher
Colby Lewis 32nd 2003 Tex. 2nd in Texas system behind Mark Teixeira
George Lombard 26th 1999 Atl. Two spots ahead of Carlos Lee
Darnell McDonald 21st 1998 Balt. Tops in Orioles' system that year
Abraham Nunez 30th 2000 Fla. Seven spots ahead of Lance Berkman
Tim Redding 49th 2001 Hou. 2nd in Astros' system behind Roy Oswalt
Michael Restovich 26th 2000 Minn. Also ranked 37th in 2003
Chris Snelling 39th 2003 Sea. Seven spots ahead of Travis Hafner
Jerome Williams 19th 2001 S.F. Ranked 19th again in 2002
Dmitri Young 12th 1993 St.L. One spot ahead of Manny Ramirez

* Highest ranking in Baseball America's list of top 100 prospects.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02244.html

Check out this review of the 1st round of the 2000 MLB draft:

Bud Selig steps to podium…

With the first overall pick in the 2000 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft, the Florida Marlins select Gonzalez, Adrian. First baseman. Eastlake High School. Chula Vista, California. And thus the odyssey began.

#1-Florida Marlins-Adrian Gonzalez-1b
#2-Minnesota Twins-Adam Johnson-rhp
#3-Chicago Cubs-Luis Montanez-2b
#4-Kansas City Royals-Mike Stodolka-lhp
#5-Montreal Expos-Justin Wayne-rhp
#6-Tampa Bay Devil Rays-Rocco Baldelli-cf
#7-Colorado Rockies-Matt Harrington-rhp
#8-Detroit Tigers-Matt Wheatland-rhp
#9-San Diego Padres-Mark Phillips-lhp
#10-Anaheim Angels-Joe Torres-lhp
#11-Milwaukee Brewers-Dave Kryznel-cf
#12-Chicago White Sox-Joe Borchard-rf
#13-St. Louis Cardinals-Shaun Boyd-inf/of
#14-Baltimore Orioles-Beau Hale-rhp
#15-Philadelphia Phillies-Chase Utley-2b
#16-New York Mets-Billy Traber-lhp
#17-Los Angeles Dodgers-Ben Diggins-rhp
#18-Toronto Blue Jays-Miguel Negron-cf
#19-Pittsburgh Pirates-Sean Burnett-lhp
#20Anaheim Angels-Chris Bootcheck-rhp
#21-Los San Francisco Giants-Boof Bonser-rhp
#22-Boston Red Sox-Phil Dumatrait-lhp
#23-Cincinatti Reds-David Espinosa-ss
#24-St. Louis Cardinals-Blake Williams-rhp
#25-Texas Rangers-Scott Heard-catcher
#26-Cleveland Indians-Corey Smith-infield
#27-Houston Astros-Robert Stiehl-rhp
#28-New York Yankees-Dave Parrish-catcher
#29-Atlanta Braves-Adam Wainwright-rhp
#30-Atlanta Braves-Scott Thorman-1b

http://mvn.com/milb-marlins/2007/03/22/ ... 0-draft-2/

You will note that the IBC rosters are NOT exactly populated with a lot of these names!

PP: Would you say it’s been bad luck or bad planning to explain the Phillies lack of top echelon talent in the system? It seems the Phillies have taken their share of “toolsy athletes” that haven’t learned to play baseball.

KG: I do think they’ve had some draft mistakes, and they’ve also lost a good share of picks by signing free agents. I don’t have a problem with them taking tooly guys, that’s where a lot of stars come from – you just have to accept the inherent risk.

...

PP: I wanted to ask you a question more related to the process of looking at a prospect. I know you value statistics and numbers, but also the virtue of tools. How do you factor those together, roughly speaking? Is it, say, a 60/40 mix? Is it different in each case? It seems like the “tools” guys more often than not never fully develop, and we know that all too well with guys like Jeff Jackson and Greg Golson. At some point, doesn’t performance on the field trump what you MIGHT be able to do, based on your arm strength, or speed?

KG: It’s totally different in each case – it’s always something that you have to deal with on a player-to-player basis. Jeff Jackson is obviously the example of the kind of tools guy that busts out, but always remember that EVERY high school pick is based on tools, not statistics. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Delmon Young, etc. – all those guys where drafted based on their tools just like Jeff Jackson.

What a bunch of losers!

Mets wrote:Check out this review of the 1st round of the 2000 MLB draft:

Bud Selig steps to podium…

With the first overall pick in the 2000 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft, the Florida Marlins select Gonzalez, Adrian. First baseman. Eastlake High School. Chula Vista, California. And thus the odyssey began.

#1-Florida Marlins-Adrian Gonzalez-1b
#2-Minnesota Twins-Adam Johnson-rhp
#3-Chicago Cubs-Luis Montanez-2b
#4-Kansas City Royals-Mike Stodolka-lhp
#5-Montreal Expos-Justin Wayne-rhp
#6-Tampa Bay Devil Rays-Rocco Baldelli-cf
#7-Colorado Rockies-Matt Harrington-rhp
#8-Detroit Tigers-Matt Wheatland-rhp
#9-San Diego Padres-Mark Phillips-lhp
#10-Anaheim Angels-Joe Torres-lhp
#11-Milwaukee Brewers-Dave Kryznel-cf
#12-Chicago White Sox-Joe Borchard-rf
#13-St. Louis Cardinals-Shaun Boyd-inf/of
#14-Baltimore Orioles-Beau Hale-rhp
#15-Philadelphia Phillies-Chase Utley-2b
#16-New York Mets-Billy Traber-lhp
#17-Los Angeles Dodgers-Ben Diggins-rhp
#18-Toronto Blue Jays-Miguel Negron-cf
#19-Pittsburgh Pirates-Sean Burnett-lhp
#20Anaheim Angels-Chris Bootcheck-rhp
#21-Los San Francisco Giants-Boof Bonser-rhp
#22-Boston Red Sox-Phil Dumatrait-lhp
#23-Cincinatti Reds-David Espinosa-ss
#24-St. Louis Cardinals-Blake Williams-rhp
#25-Texas Rangers-Scott Heard-catcher
#26-Cleveland Indians-Corey Smith-infield
#27-Houston Astros-Robert Stiehl-rhp
#28-New York Yankees-Dave Parrish-catcher
#29-Atlanta Braves-Adam Wainwright-rhp
#30-Atlanta Braves-Scott Thorman-1b

http://mvn.com/milb-marlins/2007/03/22/ ... 0-draft-2/

You will note that the IBC rosters are NOT exactly populated with a lot of these names!

I believe prospect analysis has swung too far in favor of the strikeout. Every prospect is now evaluated first and foremost by his K%, and anything less than a strikeout per inning is redflagged, regardless of the rest of the skillset. The subject of this longwinded rambling, Andrew Miller, struck out only 15.5% of the batters he faced in the high-A Florida State League while allowing 43 hits and 21 runs in 41 innings. That's not the picture of dominance we like to see from the guy hailed as the best arm in the 2006 draft class, especially in the pitcher friendly FSL. When commenting on Miller's first season in the minor leagues, the words bandied about are "struggling", "disappointing", and "needs more work". Why? Because, let's be honest, 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings in A-ball isn't dominance.

However, dominance comes in different packages. Roy Halladay is one of the most dominating pitchers of this era. Brandon Webb dominated his way to the 2006 National League Cy Young Award and has established himself as one of the premier pitchers on the planet. But they don't induce the kinds of swings-and-misses that generally go along with the Ace tag. They dominate with the groundball.

In all the talk of Andrew Miller's struggles, his 64% GB rate went almost completely ignored. That he was getting four and a half wormburners for every ball a hitter managed to get into the air against him didn't matter. He wasn't missing enough bats, and, thus, he was struggling. Except it's not true.

Groundball dominance is still a blindspot in prospect analysis. Brandon Webb was never ranked in the Top 100 by Baseball America, as his final minor league season in 2003 registered a pedestrian 7.2 K/9 in Double-A ball as a 23-year-old. A great pitcher can't strikeout more Double-A hitters than that, right? Roy Halladay got a lot more love from BA than Webb, but was still never ranked as better than the 12th best prospect in baseball, falling behind five other pitching prospects in 1999.

The two-seam fastball is not designed to get strikeouts. Andrew Miller isn't trying to blow people away. He's trying to get everyone to pound the ball into the ground, and he's been remarkably successful at it. He's not struggling - he's just succeeding in a different way.

No one will argue with you now if you call Brandon Webb or Roy Halladay a dominating pitcher, but you'll get a lot more raised eyebrows if you make the same claim about Andrew Miller having a dominating year in the Florida State League. As he makes his major league debut tonight, keep an eye on the groundballs. They're dominating too.

http://firstinning.com/content/200705129

Miller's first game in the "bigs":

Date Team G GS W L SV IP H R ER BB K CG SHO ERA WHIP

May 18 STL 1 1 1 0 0 6 4 0 0 3 2 0 0 0.00 1.17

Tell it to DMB. No starter rating. 6.06 ERA. .456 Slugging percentage against. 1.1 HR/9. He'll be useful to the MLB Tigers this year, but I can't even use him in the pen against lefties in the IBC because they sim .294/.368/.529 off him. Here's hoping for a better full sim next year.

Yeah, I think DMB may have overcompensated this year for maybe being a little too generous with projections for young pitchers last year. I was surprised when they projected only 18 IP for Adam Miller (who most expected a midseason callup for), and 30 IP for Micah Owings (who was clearly going to factor into the rotation or bullpen by midseason).

This is Fantasy oriented rather SIM but ....

Of the 120 players drafted in the first round in the last four years (non-supplemental), only 24 are in the major leagues and many have no fantasy value except in deep NL- or AL-only leagues, and of course, in keeper leagues.

Only one player drafted No. 1 overall in the past five years (Delmon Young, 2003) is even in the majors right now.

Only seven guys out of 60 in the past two years have made the jump and only one of them is a relief pitcher.

Over the last three years, 6 of the 12 are offensive players. Weirdly, none of them are outfielders.

2006: Only three have made majors.

No. 5 Brandon Morrow , RP, SEA -- 1.66 ERA and 24 K's in 21 innings, 9 holds … K/9 rate is a crazy good 9.95. Just needs to work on control …

No. 6 Andrew Miller, SP, DET (Will be recalled this weekend) -- A 0.59 ERA in Double-A this year. He threw 6 scoreless innings versus Cards, gets the Mets on Sunday.

No. 10 Tim Lincecum, SP, SF -- Throw out his first start and he's got a 3.32 ERA, he's also got 39 K's in 40 innings.

2005: Eight have made the majors. Four have current fantasy value.

No. 2 Alex Gordon, 3B, KC -- Really struggled this year, hitting below the Mendoza Line … currently un-ownable except in keeper leagues or deep AL-only.

No. 4 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WSH -- I like him. Starting to come on, hitting .245 with 8 HRs and 30 RBIs.

No. 5 Ryan Braun 3B, MIL -- .313 with 3 HRs and 8 RBIs

No. 7 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL -- After a slow start, starting to play better. Hitting .273, 3 HRs, 25 RBIs.

No. 9 Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM -- (Currently in minors)

No. 25 Matt Garza, SP, MIN -- (Currently in minors)

No. 26 Craig Hansen RP, BOS -- (Currently in minors)

No. 27 Joey Devine, RP, ATL -- (Currently in minors)

2004: Nine have made majors.

No. 2 Justin Verlander, SP, DET

No. 6 Jeremy Sowers, SP, CLE

No. 7 Homer Bailey, SP, CIN (Will be recalled on Friday)

No. 12 Jered Weaver, SP, LAA

No. 13 Bill Bray, RP, CIN (Currently in minors on rehab)

No. 14 Billy Butler, 1B, KC(Currently in minors, learning first base)

No. 15 Stephen Drew, SS, ARI

No. 18 Josh Fields, 3B, CHI (Just got the call)

No. 23 Phil Hughes, SP, NYY (Currently on DL)

No. 27 Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA

2003: Fifteen have made majors.

No. 1 Delmon Young, OF, TB

No. 2 Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL

No. 4 Tim Stauffer , SP, SD (Currently in minors)

No. 7 Nick Markakis, OF, BAL

No. 8 Paul Maholm, SP, PIT

No. 9 John Danks, SP, CHW

No. 12 Lastings Milledge, OF, NYM (currently in minors)

No. 13 Aaron Hill, 2B

No. 14 Ryan Wagner, RP, WSH

No. 15 Brian Anderson, OF, CHW (currently in minors)

No. 19 Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI

No. 20 Chad Cordero, RP, WSH

No. 22 David Aardsma. CHW, RP (currently in minors)

No. 23 Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA (currently in minors)

No. 24 Chad Billingsley, RP, LAD

-- courtsey of Matthew Berry

With this week's excitement surrounding the first year player draft, it's always good to do a little reality check. Everyone was focused on #1 pick David Price, in fact, there was great attention on every first round pick. After all, these are baseball's future superstars, right?

Well, not really. Let's take a look at the last decade's worth of first rounders and gain a little bit of perspective. Here are the #1 picks from each year and the first round players who have become stars.

Year #1 pick First round picks who became MLB stars
=========================================
1996 Kris Benson E.Chavez
1997 Matt Anderson JD.Drew, T.Glaus, V.Wells, L.Berkman
1998 Pat Burrell JD.Drew, M.Mulder, B.Lidge
1999 Josh Hamilton J.Beckett, B.Zito, B.Sheets, B.Myers
2000 Adrian Gonzalez C.Utley
2001 Joe Mauer M.Teixeira, M.Prior, J.Bonderman
2002 Bryan Bullington P.Fielder, N.Swisher, S.Kazmir, C.Hamels
2003 Delmon Young
2004 Matt Bush J.Verlander
2005 Justin Upton R.Zimmerman
2006 Luke Hochevar

For those keeping score, that's about two dozen MLB stars out of 296 first round picks (omitting 2006 since it's too soon to see the fruits of that draft), a rate of 8%. On #1 picks alone, the best we can say is that most of them became at least serviceable major league players.

So, while the first year player draft is an interesting exercise, as far as fantasy relevance, it does not seem to be a percentage play we should be obsessing over.

-- courtsey of Ron Shandler