IBC

Athletics wrote: As far as the top rankings go, I'm not sure where you found that magical rotation depth in Toronto. I see Santana, then I see Smoltz (who won't be back until May if at all), then I see Duke, who may or may not be ready to go this year, then I see Sonnanstine, who's 102 ERA+ from last year is counterbalanced by a 77 figure from 2007. Then there's Wake, who's been nicely average the last few years. It's a fine rotation, but really what blows my mind is your claim that 38 year old Paul Byrd (4.60 ERA, 4.1 K/9), Ian Snell (7-12 5.42 ERA 1.76 WHIP) and Jose Contreras one year removed from a 10-17 5.57 gem of a season would be battling it out to be the third starter in a good IBC rotation.

As far as my depth goes there is this guy who fell to me at pick number 30 - quote courtesy of BP:

Uehara was drafted by the Angels out of university more than a decade ago, but opted to stick with Japan and has guided the Yomiuri Giants ever since. Uehara has requested on several occasions to move to the majors, but the Giants refused him at every turn. He is finally a free agent, and has indicated his intent to move overseas. He is currently 33 years old, and perhaps his best days are well behind him, but overall he ranks directly behind Matsuzaka in terms of recent Japanese baseball history. Uehara is a control pitcher with a freakishly good BB/K ratio, and figures to be something in the neighborhood of a good second starter in the NL, or a fair third starter in the AL. I'd say he's the only Japanese free agent worth spending any kind of major money on this season.

Wake was better than average last year, Sonny's numbers from the year prior didn't match his peripherals. It's not JB's rotation but it'll do fine with a tough bullpen and a line-up that will score 1000+ runs again.

Giants wrote:I don't think I'd put myself in top 5. Likely not even top 10.

Why? You've got people saying you will be in the top 5 and those saying you won't (like you)? You just underplaying?

I think you're underrating my pen. Sure, it's not loaded like Pat's, but there is a collection of quality arms in there. There isn't a big name like Lidge, papelbon or Rivera, but I've never been a believer in paying to get a shutdown closer in the sim and it's certainly worked for me before. The cost/value ratio on those types of arms just doesn't seem worthwhile to me (high cost, low percentage of playing time, above average likelihood of injury). Balfour may have been the second best reliever in baseball last year, Grabow had a great season and Okajima and Delcarmen were very solid again. That's 4 guys in the top 40 reliever for Adjusted Pitching Runs for 2008.
Vmart is certainly a concern but Lowrie should project around a .350 OBP with solid defense and Dukes is going to be a beast.
I would't argue for top 5 (thanks though Gabe) but top 10, certainly. Bump out SD and slip me in (Will Zito be good enough? You're kidding right? Two words describe Zito at this point "Washed Up".)

Oh, and regarding your question at the end of the Marlins write-up... no, that title has to belong to Nate who has had more seasons where he should have been Top Dog washed out by injury than anyone ought to have to go through.

I think Nils can be very good and be a legit contender this year, but to be citing Bonderman, Prior and Capuano as sickening depth is silly. When was the last time Prior pitched? I'd like to have Bonderman, but stashed away. Capuano? blah. Sorry Nils. Bedard's shoulder is also a concern. I think he's done a great job, but I don't think he's a top 5 team and I think he has some work to do in order to beat Jag or Martin at this point. Compete? absolutely. A favorite to win it all? Don't think so, especially not in his own division.

Bonderman as a 5th starter? That's pretty f'ing impressive - I mean, it's no Pitt rotation, but, then again, Nils has twice the offensive depth that you do - and is pretty filthy defensively. There are 20 teams in this league that would give their left nut to have Bonderman, Prior, and Capuano battling for their 3rd rotation spot.

Sorry Bren - not happening. You're asking for two things out of Dukes:
1) A weighted NL ops of .850 for the SIM, and disregarding his ugly 2007, and the .679 ops he put up in the minors in 2008
2) Dukes staying on the field - which, if you haven't noticed, is pretty fucking tough

Lowrie had a .339 obp in 1/2 an MLB season. My guess: he'll get pretty much that in the sim. That's not great, it's passable. But then again, you are praying for good sim's from Span, VMart, "I Need a Platoon" Ethier, Lowell, Dukes, AND Lowrie - with no discernable depth...anywhere.

You don't have bullpen DEPTH - four guys is great, but one of them won't get the SIM, and another will get hurt. That's the reality of injuries and the sim. To say your bullpen is not a concern doesn't sail in the Zalaski Ocean.

Marlins wrote: Phillies' Lineup

1. RF Shane Victorino, S [Age 28] (3yr: 1441 AB, .287/.349/.430, 0.779 OPS, 77 SB/18 CS; 2008: 570 AB, .293/.352/.447, 0.799 OPS, 36 SB/11 CS)

2. SS Michael Young, R [32] (3yr: 1975 AB, .304/.353/.427, 0.780 OPS, 35 HR, 30 SB/6 CS; 2008: 645 AB, .284/.339/.402, 0.741 OPS, 12 HR, 10 SB/0 CS)

3. CF Jody Gerut, L [31] (3yr: N/A - 0 AB since 2005; 2008: 328 AB, .296/.351/.494, 0.845 OPS, 14 HR)

4. 1B Lance Berkman, S [32] (3yr: 1651 AB, .302/.408/.565, 0.973 OPS, 108 HR, 28 SB/9 CS; 2008: 554 AB, .312/.420/.567, 0.987 OPS, 29 HR, 18 SB/4 CS)

5. 3B Hank Blalock, L [28] (3yr: 1057 AB, .276/.335/.455, 0.790 OPS, 38 HR; 2008: 258 AB, .287/.338/.508, .846 OPS, 12 HR)

6. LF Garret Anderson, L [36] (3 yr: .289/.327/.449; 2008: .293/.325/.433); Cody Ross, R [27] (3 yr: .265/.328/.503; 2008: .260/.316/.488)

7. C John Baker, L [27] (2008: .299/.392/.447 - 197 career ABs as rookie 2008); Chris Coste, R [35] (3 yr: .288/.338/.449; 2008: .263/.325/.423)

8. 2B Freddy Sanchez, R [30] (3 yr: .306/.340/.429, 0.769 OPS; 2008: .271/.298/.371, 0.669 OPS)

Bench

OF Garret Anderson
C Baker/Coste
UT Ronnie Belliard
3B/1B Greg Dobbs
OF Matt Stairs

Marlins' Lineup

1. LF Carl Crawford, L [Age 27] (3yr: 1627 AB, .300/.342/.454, 0.796 OPS, 133 SB/23 CS; 2008: 443 AB, .273/.319/.400, 0.719 OPS, 25 SB/7 CS)

2. 2B Ian Kinsler, R [26] (3yr: 1424 AB, .290/.360/.473, 0.833 OPS, 52 HR, 60 SB/8 CS; 2008: 518 AB, .319/.375/.517, 0.892 OPS, 18 HR, 26 SB/2 CS)

3. 3B Aramis Ramirez, R [30] (3yr: 1654 AB, .296/.366/.543, 0.909 OPS, 91 HR; 2008: 554 AB, .289/.380/.518, 0.898 OPS, 27 HR)

4. 1B David Ortiz, L [33] (3yr: 1523 AB, .297/.413/.596, 1.009 OPS, 112 HR; 2008: 416 AB, .264/.369/.507, 0.876 OPS, 23 HR)

5. C Geovany Soto, R [25] (3yr: 573 AB, .291/.365/.508, 0.873 OPS, 26 HR); 2008: 494 AB, .285/.364/.504, 0.868 OPS, 23 HR)

6. SS Troy Tulowitzki, R [24] (3 yr: 1082 AB, .276/.346/.435, 0.781 OPS, 33 HR;2008: 337 AB, .263/.332/.401, 0.732 OPS)

7. RF Hideki Matsui, L [34] (3 yr: 1056 AB, .291/.372/.469, 0.841 OPS, 42 HR;2008: 337 AB, .294/.370/.424, 0.794 OPS)

8. CF Hunter Pence, R [25] (3 yr: 1051 AB, .292/.336/.498, 0.834 OPS, 42 HR; 2008: 595 AB, .269/.318/.466, 0.783 OPS, 25 HR)

Bench

UT Jerry Hairston Jr, R [32]
CF Scott Hairston, R [28]
C J.P. Arencibia, R [21]
CF Gregor Blanco, L [24]
1B/OF Joe Mather, R [26]

Sure, a lot of my guys were hurt and some had down seasons from 2007, but Jody Gerut played in 100 G this year, his first MLB action since 2005 (and has just 65 AB vs LHP since 2005) is slotted in Philly's 3-spot. Not a bad overall lineup (Berkman will have the best 09 proj. of any hitter on either team), but there are 2 platoons and the #8 hitter had an OBP under .300 last season. My team had their struggles for sure, but other than having "professional hitter" Matt Stairs on the bench, I'm not sure what your reasoning would be there over my team.

Fair point - my argument for Gerut is that he now has a track record of success at the MLB level while Pence and Tulo, both certainly more gifted, have only part of one season under their belt. I think the lineups are similar in strength, and the edge goes to Nick for his pitching. But wise men have certainly disagreed before...

BlueJays wrote:

Athletics wrote: As far as the top rankings go, I'm not sure where you found that magical rotation depth in Toronto. I see Santana, then I see Smoltz (who won't be back until May if at all), then I see Duke, who may or may not be ready to go this year, then I see Sonnanstine, who's 102 ERA+ from last year is counterbalanced by a 77 figure from 2007. Then there's Wake, who's been nicely average the last few years. It's a fine rotation, but really what blows my mind is your claim that 38 year old Paul Byrd (4.60 ERA, 4.1 K/9), Ian Snell (7-12 5.42 ERA 1.76 WHIP) and Jose Contreras one year removed from a 10-17 5.57 gem of a season would be battling it out to be the third starter in a good IBC rotation.

As far as my depth goes there is this guy who fell to me at pick number 30 - quote courtesy of BP:

Uehara was drafted by the Angels out of university more than a decade ago, but opted to stick with Japan and has guided the Yomiuri Giants ever since. Uehara has requested on several occasions to move to the majors, but the Giants refused him at every turn. He is finally a free agent, and has indicated his intent to move overseas. He is currently 33 years old, and perhaps his best days are well behind him, but overall he ranks directly behind Matsuzaka in terms of recent Japanese baseball history. Uehara is a control pitcher with a freakishly good BB/K ratio, and figures to be something in the neighborhood of a good second starter in the NL, or a fair third starter in the AL. I'd say he's the only Japanese free agent worth spending any kind of major money on this season.

Wake was better than average last year, Sonny's numbers from the year prior didn't match his peripherals. It's not JB's rotation but it'll do fine with a tough bullpen and a line-up that will score 1000+ runs again.

Well said...now trade me Derek Lee...

Royals wrote:

BlueJays wrote:

Athletics wrote: As far as the top rankings go, I'm not sure where you found that magical rotation depth in Toronto. I see Santana, then I see Smoltz (who won't be back until May if at all), then I see Duke, who may or may not be ready to go this year, then I see Sonnanstine, who's 102 ERA+ from last year is counterbalanced by a 77 figure from 2007. Then there's Wake, who's been nicely average the last few years. It's a fine rotation, but really what blows my mind is your claim that 38 year old Paul Byrd (4.60 ERA, 4.1 K/9), Ian Snell (7-12 5.42 ERA 1.76 WHIP) and Jose Contreras one year removed from a 10-17 5.57 gem of a season would be battling it out to be the third starter in a good IBC rotation.

As far as my depth goes there is this guy who fell to me at pick number 30 - quote courtesy of BP:

Uehara was drafted by the Angels out of university more than a decade ago, but opted to stick with Japan and has guided the Yomiuri Giants ever since. Uehara has requested on several occasions to move to the majors, but the Giants refused him at every turn. He is finally a free agent, and has indicated his intent to move overseas. He is currently 33 years old, and perhaps his best days are well behind him, but overall he ranks directly behind Matsuzaka in terms of recent Japanese baseball history. Uehara is a control pitcher with a freakishly good BB/K ratio, and figures to be something in the neighborhood of a good second starter in the NL, or a fair third starter in the AL. I'd say he's the only Japanese free agent worth spending any kind of major money on this season.

Wake was better than average last year, Sonny's numbers from the year prior didn't match his peripherals. It's not JB's rotation but it'll do fine with a tough bullpen and a line-up that will score 1000+ runs again.

Well said...now trade me Derek Lee...

Uehara is likely a reliever in MLB (he was a reliever in Japan last year) and 7 years older than Dice-K was when he joined the MLB. #2NL/#3AL is incredibly optimistic, he's not half the pitcher Dice-K was in Japan and he lost his opportunity to start.

Bren...your team sucks. Trade me Beckett to be my 5.

Uehara also becomes, depending on sim's, Pat's 5th or 6th starter, or more bullpen depth. So it's not like Pat's counting on this guy to win him the championship...

RedSox wrote:
Uehara is likely a reliever in MLB (he was a reliever in Japan last year) and 7 years older than Dice-K was when he joined the MLB. #2NL/#3AL is incredibly optimistic, he's not half the pitcher Dice-K was in Japan and he lost his opportunity to start.

He was a starter before the Olympics last year. He started 12 games, went to the Olympics and returned as a reliever. In 2007 he didn't start, all the years prior to that he was a starter. Ditto to what Z said. Look at these K:BB, he's likely going to get a good projection.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players ... yerID=1071

BlueJays wrote:

RedSox wrote:
Uehara is likely a reliever in MLB (he was a reliever in Japan last year) and 7 years older than Dice-K was when he joined the MLB. #2NL/#3AL is incredibly optimistic, he's not half the pitcher Dice-K was in Japan and he lost his opportunity to start.

He was a starter before the Olympics last year. He started 12 games, went to the Olympics and returned as a reliever. In 2007 he didn't start, all the years prior to that he was a starter. Ditto to what Z said. Look at these K:BB, he's likely going to get a good projection.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players ... yerID=1071

That's what I get for taking the shortcut and using Wikipedia to get his stats... My bad.

I'm not arguing that Koji has to be more than a 5th or 6th starter for Pat, but if he gets signed as a reliever with only 12 starts in the last 2 years it's not a lock he gets a SP rating and the #2/3 is certainly an overambitious projection for a player of his age who is going to have to make the adjustment he'll need to make. I'm not arguing he doesn't have great command, but a command specialist in Japan without having great 'stuff' just doesn't seem like a great catch for the US. How will he project? Who knows, DMB hasn't exactly been consistent with their projections on NPB pitchers, especially relievers which is what Uehara has been for the majority of the last two years. He could project very well, he could project very poorly, we simply don't know. When it comes to MLB though, it speaks volumes that there doesn't seem to have been a lot of interest in Uehara or Kawakami among MLB teams.

I think you're still missing the point. Uehara's projection doesn't hurt Pat's team if it's bad, and it only helps if it's good. Which doesn't make him any less scary - or less deep...

Royals wrote:I love it - great job Jake...

When I get a little while today, I'll respond - but that's what I'm looking for - I wish everyone would come back like that...

On first blush I'm not talking about the strength of an organization as a whole. I'm talking about how good you'll be in 2009 - and saying that Randy Winn will be faster and you have more better prospects does not sell me on 2009 success - especially when you have a rotation ace with a 4.55 era last year, and a three split of 4.55/4.33/3.91 - that's a pretty steep regression from an ace. Your rotation is banking on Godsend sim's - and I'm not sure you're getting Cy Difelice again...so my eggs are in the Texas basket in the West.

Obviously Myers isn't going to get an ace projection, though his second half numbers might warrant it. My ace will be DiFelice, or it will be a projection piece to be named later. It might even end up being Derek Holland. When I won the division in 2007 I did so without an ace (Glavine put up the ERA but the peripherals weren't even close), and the defense, speed, and bullpen weren't even close to what I have now (and Ropers team that year was at least as good as Texas and Seattle this year). Moral of the story, it sure is nice not to be in the AL Beast.

Eventually its going to catch up, it cant work every year.

Just has to work one more year until Holland, Stanton, Taylor, and Posey arrive as useful pieces. Also, statistically speaking, DiFelice really should get a chance in the Brewers rotation this year. Considering his component ratios he should be at least as good as Dave Bush or Seth McClung.

Athletics wrote:Moral of the story, it sure is nice not to be in the AL Beast.

I wouldn't know (though I kind of wish i did...)

Okay I think that my team is a little more worthy of the high ranking with the Nathan addition. And Fukudome is probably a short term upgrade over Hermida on defense alone.