IBC

Anonymous, 4 hours ago

Is Bergolla starting to recover some of his prospect luster? His numbers were way down early in JS but seems to have had some hot months. Ronald Torreyes type?

Moderator, 4 hours ago

William Bergolla was acquired from Philadelphia at the trade deadline. There's a lot to like in his profile --- double-plus bat-to-ball skills, above-average defense up the middle, and plus makeup. What is lacking is strength, with very low exit velocities, and well below-average power. There's just got to more oomph in that technically sound swing. As for comps, I tried to get a projection to a Luis Arraez type hitter if he adds strength to his swing. None of my sources were willing to go that far, but no one laughed at my question.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ects-chat/

Braylin Morel – OF – (CPX)

Height/Weight: 6’2, 185 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $97K, 2023 (TEX) | ETA: 2027

HIT Plate Disc GAME POWER RUN FIELD FV
35/45 40/50 45/55 55/55 40/50 45

A powerful teenage bat with back to back strong seasons at the Complex levels, Morel brings intriguing tools to the table and could really see his stock soar with a good showing in full season ball in 2025.

Hitting

Starting upright, Morel loads by sinking into his back side in tandem with a barrel tip as he pulls his hands back towards his slot. He has the tendency to step in the bucket, which can pull his front side off, but when he is maintaining his direction, Morel has demonstrated the ability to drive the ball with authority to all fields.

Pair the feel to elevate to all fields with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 103 MPH, and it’s easy to dream on above average power potential from Morel. He is still relatively raw mechanically, especially with controlling his weight, but he has a decent feel for the strike zone and recognizing spin for a lower level hitter. His swing can get long, resulting in below average contact rates and placing more importance on his plate discipline to continue to progress.

Defense/Speed

An above average runner with an above average arm, Morel has the ingredients to be a solid defender in either corner as he refines his reads and routes. He has room to improve in regards to tracking the baseball, with the tendency to float a bit and take inefficient routes. He was 12-for-14 on stolen base attempts in 41 Complex League games and should be a solid stolen base threat.

Outlook

Morel has the tools to be an athletic power hitting corner outfielder if it all comes together. The Rangers are generally aggressive in moving international prospects off of the complex when they perform well, but have been more station to station with Morel despite strong age 17 and 18 seasons at the Dominican Summer and Complex Leagues. Iffy contact rates may play a part in the Rangers being more conservative with Morel’s development, and if he can grow into even a fringy hit tool, there may be enough power upside and athleticism to project as a regular. At this point, he more likely projects as a platoon bat.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... -for-2025/

Braylin Morel, OF - Texas Rangers

The Rangers signed Braylin Morel during the 2023 international signing period. Morel made his professional debut later that year and had an impressive showing as he hit .344/.417/.644 with 7 HR over 204 plate appearances, all as a 17-year old. Morel’s 168 wRC+ was the 7th best and 1.061 OPS was the 4th best among the 300 qualifying players in the DSL.

Now an 18-year old, Morel has made a seamless transition stateside as he is currently hitting .307/.407/.575 with 7 HR and 12 stolen bases through 41 games. Morel’s offensive tools have the potential to be well above-average as he possesses a solid contact ability and immense raw power. However, his defense in the outfield is a work in progress and there are questions if he’ll slow down as he ages, potentially necessitating a future move to first base.

https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/un ... irect=true

10. Fernando Perez, RHP

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R

Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 45/High.

Track Record: An under-the-radar signing in January 2022, Perez grew up in a remote area of Nicaragua and was not heavily scouted. He debuted the following summer in the Dominican Summer League, where he showcased advanced command over a dozen starts. Perez’s U.S. debut in the 2023 Florida Complex League continued to fuel his rise when he impressed over 10 starts, the most memorable of which was a combined no-hitter in which he threw the first seven innings. Perez was assigned to Low-A Dunedin in 2024 and stayed with the team all season, making 17 starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA and appearing in the Futures Game.

Scouting Report: Perez is a young, pitchability righthander with advanced feel for his five-pitch mix. Despite pedestrian stuff, he convinces many evaluators that he will grow into improved stuff in the coming years. At the moment, Perez mixes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, cutter and changeup. His primary offering is his four-seam fastball that sits 92-93 mph and touches 95 with average ride and run. Everything around his fastball metrics is average, but his performance with the pitch in 2024 was excellent. Perez’s slider is his primary secondary pitch and sits 80-82 with traditional slider shape. It’s the best pitch in his arsenal and does a good job of generating whiffs and chase swings from hitters. His changeup is his primary secondary against lefthanded hitters and shows good vertical life and velocity separation, but his release point on the pitch is inconsistent. His mid-80s cutter and mid-70s curveball were both used sparingly in 2024.

The Future: Perez is a back-end starter with advanced feel for his arsenal but no plus offerings. He’s likely to slot in as No. 5 starter in his peak seasons.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 40 | Slider: 55. CH: 50. CUT: 40 | Control: 55.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2 ... =preseason

17. Fernando Perez, RHP (Low-A Dunedin)

A four-pitch Nicaraguan righty who signed with the Jays, just before his 18th birthday, Perez shows the vague outline of a back-end starter. His fastball can touch 95, and it’s a spinny pitch he can work up in the zone to either side of the plate. He won’t give hitters anything center-cut and the pitch is aided by a bit of deception in his stiff, hunched delivery. The secondaries all have some potential, but are inconsistent offerings. The best is his mid-80s cutter which can run close to a gyro slider and has average potential, but can be soft and up in the zone rather than a driving chase pitch down and out of it. His low-80s slider kind of rolls up there 12-6, while his change has average fade and sink, but can also just sort of float into the zone and look like a batting practice foshball. There is certainly the potential for near-term refinement of the offspeed, and enough long-term potential for an average arsenal, but Perez is a bit away from the latter at present.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... prospects/

4. Nolan McLean, RHP

Born: 2001-07-24
B: Right/ T: Right
H: 6′ 2″/W: 214 lbs.

History: Drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft, Oklahoma State; signed for $747,600.
Previous Rank: NR
Major League ETA: 2025

Year Team Level Age PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ BABIP
2023 F-MET ROK 21 11 3 0 0 1 2 4 5 1 0 .143 .455 .571 – –
2023 SLU Lo-A 21 13 2 0 0 0 1 3 6 0 0 .111 .308 .111 85 .250
2024 BRK Hi-A 22 74 10 7 0 5 13 6 38 1 0 .224 .297 .552 82 .417
2024 BNG AA 22 69 6 2 0 3 8 6 36 0 0 .159 .232 .333 54 .292

The Report: McLean is another Oklahoma State two-way player high up in the system; the Mets do have their types. He was mostly a power-hitting third baseman in college moonlighting as a pitcher—he made only three starts on the mound and threw a total of 57 1/3 innings over his three seasons as a Cowboy. Drafted as a two-way player, it quickly became clear that his professional future was on the mound: His contact rates went from really iffy to catastrophic as soon as he turned pro, and his last 2024 appearance with a bat in his hand was on June 20th.

On the mound, he very quickly started closing in on being a Top 101 prospect. His mid-80s sweeper is one of the best breaking balls in the minor leagues; it has extremely high spin and elite horizontal break. His four-seam fastball isn’t anything special in shape, but he throws it in the mid-to-upper-90s, enough velocity to make it playable. His cutter around 90—which also has very high spin for the pitch type—has increasingly served as a viable bridge pitch. His sinker and changeup give him additional looks to batters, and his command is viable for his relative inexperience on the mound. Having already mastered Double-A in a season he didn’t even begin as a full-time pitcher, McLean is on the doorstep of the majors.

OFP: 55 / Mid-rotation starter
Variance: Medium. All usual pitching prospect caveats apply, and the lack of elite fastball traits could limit his upside.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Rundown:

Top-500 Dynasty Prospects: 226
Potential Earnings: $0-5
Fantasy Overview: In the age of the sweeper, McLean may ultimately have one of the best, with both power and movement. His fastball is lively enough from a low enough approach to be effective. His dynamic east-west arsenal points to a future big-league role; how impactful it will be depends on his command and further secondary refinement.
Reckless Fantasy Comp: Clarke Schmidt

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... prospects/

White Sox selected RHP Shane Smith from the Brewers with the first pick of the 2024 Rule 5 draft.

This was reported as a lock by Jonathan May of MLB.com earlier Wednesday, and it turned out to be the case, unsurprisingly. The right-hander will have a chance to earn a bullpen spot with the White Sox after posting solid numbers in the minors at the Double- And Triple-A levels in 2024.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/shane-smith/242681

As rumors of a Garrett Crochet trade to Boston came to a boil, the White Sox closed out the official winter meetings schedule with one more addition, selecting right-handed pitcher Shane Smith with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft.

Smith is coming off a productive 2024, posting a 3.05 ERA with 113 strikeouts against just 70 hits and 29 walks over 94⅓ innings. He made 27 of his 33 appearances in Double-A Biloxi before a late-season promotion to Triple-A Nashville, and he made 16 of his 32 appearances as a starter.

In selecting Smith, the White Sox will pay the Brewers $100,000, and have to keep him on the active roster for a minimum of 90 days. They can only remove him from the roster and reassign him to the minors if he clears outright waivers, or if Brewers aren’t interested in reacquiring Smith for $50,000.

Starting was a new role for Smith, whose work in the Wake Forest bullpen was limited first by the COVID shutdown in 2020, and then an elbow injury the following year. He threw just 10⅓ innings total before Tommy John surgery, and signed with the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in 2022. He spent 2023 entirely in the bullpen, throwing nearly 60 innings over 38 carefully allocated appearances, and then the Brewers pushed him into new territory.

An extremely helpful post and video from Seth Stohs of Brewer Fanatic will catch you up on his history …

… and at 19-minute mark, he gets into what he throws (fastball, slider, curve, and a sweeper he said he started throwing midseason), and how and when he tries to throw it.

Given Smith’s professional success and strike-throwing ability, the question is why the Brewers wouldn’t protect him on the 40-man roster. The doubts potentially spring from Smith possessing a fastball-forward attack, and Statcast only had him 93-95 out of the bullpen during his late-season work in Nashville. Does he get enough extension and ride to make that work in the majors? If not, does either his slider or curveball have the ability to take on more of a leading role?

Those questions are one the White Sox in a decent position to take on, in the sense that he offers multiple ways for the White Sox to keep him on the 26-man roster for a full season. Perhaps his stuff gets another boost — or perhaps a tweak makes a breaking ball level up — and he can occupy a spot in the bullpen that’s lacking in even reliable medium-leverage types. Or perhaps the White Sox believe he can throw five decent innings on a semi-regular basis, and he helps fill out of the rotation.

Most likely, he offers the ability to throw multiple innings in relief, and he seems to hold his own against lefties despite the lack of a changeup. That basically allows him to fill the role that Jared Shuster occupied last year. It’s a little redundant since Shuster is still on the roster, but Smith throws with his other hand, and until the Sox make more proven acquisitions, there’s room in the picture for both.

https://soxmachine.com/2024/12/white-so ... e-5-draft/

Smith, a Wake Forest product who signed with the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in July of 2021, will pitch all of the 2025 season at age 25. Injuries slowed him early in his career, but he had 10 saves and a 1.96 ERA in 38 relief appearances, reaching Double-A in 2023. He totaled 94 1/3 innings last season, getting time as both a starter and reliever, finishing with a combined 3.05 ERA, a .204 batting average against and 10.8 K/9 rate across Double- and Triple-A. He can miss bats with his 93-94 mph fastball and he has a distinct curve and slider, getting good extension and generally being around the strike zone (2.8 BB/9 last year).

“When we talked about him before the protection deadline we knew he was a really good pitcher, a high-character pitcher we’ve liked going back to college,” Brewers special assistant to scouting Bryan Gale said. “Anyone that’s seen him when he’s been healthy in pro baseball [sees that] he’s been successful and he’s gotten better every year. When you have to make a tough decision like that, you know there’s some risk of losing a really good player. Everyone is happy Shane will get this opportunity, and we’re all pulling for him.”

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/rule-5-dr ... e-coverage

1. Jacob Melton, OF

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 208 | B-T: L-L

Age: null
BA Grade/Risk: 55/High.

Track Record: Melton spent one season at Linn-Benton (Ore.) JC before transferring to Oregon State as a sophomore. His first taste of Division I competition in 2020 was cut short after seven games due to the pandemic. Melton appeared to break out the following season, hitting .404/.466/.697 in 32 games, but a shoulder injury cut his season short in April and he went undrafted. In his third season at OSU in 2022, he hit .360/.424/.671 with 17 home runs in 63 games. That season, he was selected as a first-team All-American and won the Pacific-12 Conference player of the year award. The Astros drafted Melton in the second round in 2022 and signed him for an under-slot $1 million. He began his first full season in 2023 with High-A Asheville, reaching Double-A by August. Melton spent 2024 at Double-A Corpus Christi, where he started 58 games, and Triple-A Sugar Land. He had a solid but unspectacular season, hitting .253/.310/.426. He saw time at all three outfield positions but played center field primarily. Melton’s home/road splits were unusual in 2024, in that he hit 12 of his 15 home runs on the road with an OPS more than 200 points higher than at home.

Scouting Report: Melton is an athletic outfielder with average or better tools across the board and a sneaky power-speed combination. At 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, he has little to no projection remaining in his frame. Melton sets up at the plate slightly open, employing a moderate leg kick and busy hands as he moves into his load. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, showing the ability to hit fastballs and breaking pitches of all types. Melton struggles against changeups and splitters in large part because of his fairly aggressive approach at the plate. He’s prone to expanding the zone at a rate slightly higher than average but avoids passivity without being overly swing happy. Melton’s raw power is above-average, but his batted-ball angles are fairly poor, leading to a higher rate of groundball contact than his high-end exit velocities—including a max of 113.6 mph—would suggest. Slight improvements in this area could yield better results in the future. The lefthanded-hitting Melton also struggles to hit the ball in the air to his pull side, with a majority of his airborne contact going to the opposite field. Melton is a plus runner who can stretch extra-base hits, steal bases at a high rate and handle center field. He’s an above-average defender in center and is plus on the corners. Melton’s arm is merely average, but he does a good job getting the ball back into the infield.

The Future: Melton is a well-rounded player who should be an average offensive performer with above-average outfield defense. He can increase his overall offensive production with improved bat angles and swing decisions. He likely will return to Triple-A Sugar Land to begin the season with a chance to debut for the Astros later in 2025.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 50.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2 ... =preseason

Tommy John surgery in his junior season kept White Sox Rule 5 pick Shane Smith from being drafted out of Wake Forest, so the 24-year-old right-hander was better suited than most to enjoy being the oddest sort of No. 1 overall selection.

“I’ve been through two other drafts and didn’t get my name called in those,” Smith said. “To be first in the first round was a special experience for me and my family.”

Smith mostly started while mostly shoving in Double-A last season in the Brewers system, before his promotion to Triple-A involved a full-on transition to the bullpen at the end of the year. While he prefers the rhythm of starting and how the innings allow him time to gain a feel for pitches that might elude him out of the gate, Smith speaks like a man who knows he’ll have to be ready for anything when he arrives in Glendale.

Getz didn’t place any limits on the role Smith will compete for in camp, but indications are the White Sox will have enough starters (barring injury) to wall off the five-man rotation from him. Smith didn’t refer to much more than introductory conversations with White Sox personnel, such as fellow former Brewer Walker McKinven, but someone already introduced to the roster realities behind the Rule 5 Draft is well-suited to deduce their place in the hierarchy early.

“I’m going to prepare for a large volume, whatever that looks like, whether it’s two or three innings out of the pen or starting, one inning out of the pen.” Smith said. “I’ll prepare for more because it’s a lot easier to taper down then prepare for one or two innings and then have to build up at spring training or in January, February.”

Smith has been primarily fastball/curveball throughout his career, with harder secondaries floating in and out of his arsenal at different points. What the White Sox have in mind to lift his profile beyond what the Brewers weren’t willing to protect on the 40-man roster remains to be seen, but Smith has been working on a new slider that harnesses his natural tendency to cut his fastball. The process of leveraging what Smith’s body was already doing sounds fairly Bannister-coded, even if Brian himself has yet to weigh in.

“Toward the end of the year, I started cutting the heater,” Smith said. “It didn’t kill the fastball velocity but at the same time, it helped me get that feeling of almost getting to the side with the baseball for my slider. Before, I tried to think like my curveball, get in front of it to create that movement. Once I realized I could get to the side of the baseball without thinking about it or trying it, once I blended the two between the curveball and getting on the side for the slider, that’s when it picked up a little bit.”

https://soxmachine.com/2024/12/newly-ac ... rs-plenty/

Esteban Mejia, RHP, Orioles

Mejia and fireballing righty Keeler Morfe gave the Orioles two of the best pitching prospects in the DSL. Mejia has the makings of a prototype pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-3 and a three-pitch mix that gives him plenty of avenues to get hitters out. His fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90s, peaking at 98 mph and showing the kind of spin and movement to project as a plus offering. The same goes for his slider, a mid-80s offering that could give him a second 60-grade pitch. Mejia’s changeup comes in around 89 mph with impressive sink action. Mejia rounds out his arsenal with a low-90s sinker which helped him coax a solid amount of grounders. He throws his mix from a lower slot, gets deception from a slightly cross-body finish and has the combination of whippy athleticism and remaining projection to make evaluators believe his stuff could tick up in a few years.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... s-in-2024/

The Orioles also signed Dominican righthander Esteban Mejia for $175,000, and he continued his up-arrow ascension towards being one of the top pitching prospects in the DSL. Mejia signed with a fastball that touched 93 mph, but as he has begun to fill out his lanky 6-foot-3 frame, his velocity has taken off. Mixing four- and two-seam fastballs that he throws from a low release height, Mejia parked at 91-96 mph in the DSL and reached 98. Mejia’s fastball is his best pitch, though he will flash feel to spin a short slider in the 2,400-2,600 rpm range and a mid-to-upper 80s changeup. He finished with a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 innings with 44 strikeouts and 15 walks.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... g-classes/

Just really excited about this kid:

12. Braylin Morel, OF, 19, 6’2”/180, CPX

While Morel netted just a $100k signing bonus as part of the 2023 international class, he looks like a high dollar signing as he is ascending the Rangers farm system. Being significantly bigger than his listed 180-pound weight, Morel looks like a future power hitter who has already exhibited the ability to hit baseballs a long way.

Using a small toe-tap, Morel starts with his hands before leading with his lower-half to generate torque. He does fly open a bit earlier than you would like to see, but he controls the barrel well and creates good lag and power with his strong wrists.

The exit velocities took a big step forward in 2024 as Morel saw his 90th percentile exit velocity take a big jump to north of 103 mph. He hit seven home runs at the complex in 41 games while having 22 extra-base hits. While the .307/.407/.575 slash line looks quite good, Morel still has questionable contact ability. He struck out in 23.6 percent of plate appearances and has below-average contact skills.

The athleticism is there despite the added weight. However, Morel likely sees his run times tick down as he continues to mature. He looks like a corner outfield masher, depending on how the profile develops. Morel will likely begin the season at Single-A in 2025, where he will spend the entire year as a 19-year-old.

FFG: Power Hitting OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .265/.340/25 HR/7 SB

Variance: Extreme

Buy/Sell: Buy

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2& ... 1836754865

Jacob Melton, OF, 24, 6’2”/208, AAA (ADP: 607)

After being selected in the second round of the 2022 draft out of Oregon State, Melton enjoyed a successful first full pro season in 2023, hitting 23 home runs and swiping 46 bases between High-A and Double-A. Having an impressive frame, Melton is a strong athlete with a smooth swing from the left side of the plate, creating effortless power when he makes contact. He glides in the outfield and is capable of playing center field.

Melton seemingly regressed in 2024, and the surface numbers did not look as strong. He still stole 30 bases and was caught four times, but he slashed .253/.310/.426 with 15 home runs. While he missed time with an injury, Melton took a step back.

The good news is, under the hood, things still look good. An 88 mph average exit velocity is respectable, but a 106 mph 90th percentile stands out in a big way. He also maxed out at 114 mph, showing the raw power upside.

From a contact perspective, Melton posted an overall mark of around 76 percent and an in-zone rate of nearly 84 percent. He was more aggressive this year and chased pitches out of the zone at a 30 percent mark, but still kept his strikeouts in check.

The changeup gave Melton fits, which is interesting. He had a contact rate of just 54 percent against that pitch type and hit .200 against them. Breaking balls were a similar case, as Melton made contact on just 70 percent of those pitch types. Fastballs, however, Melton handled with ease.

Melton is a plus runner with plus-fielding skills. The power metrics suggest potential above-average home run output, but Melton will need to lift the ball more. His profile is well-rounded, and he is advanced and ready for the Majors. He should spend a large portion of 2025 in the Astros outfield.

Verdict: Have you seen the Astros outfield? Melton is a well-rounded player with a real shot at 400 plate appearances this year. Easy Buy.

Denzel Clarke, OF, 24, 6’4”/220, AA (ADP: 731)

A roller coaster ride is how I would describe Clarke’s season. Month to month, the results were inconsistent, but Clarke finished the year on a high note and a slash of .269/.339/.445 with 13 home runs and 36 stolen bases. The strikeout rate ended the year just under 30 percent but improved all season along with the contact rates.

From June 1 forward, Clarke slashed .304/.370/.510 with a collective 24.7 percent strikeout rate. Ten of his home runs came over those 77 games, and he added 32 extra-base hits with 28 stolen bases. When you think of toolsy, upside-type players, Clarke checks many boxes. He has a 6’4”/220 frame with plus raw power and plus speed.

Clark has strong plate skills and, for the most part, makes good swing decisions. The contact comes and goes in spurts, though. If his gains to end the seasons stick, there could be a very exciting player.

The athlete is off the charts, and Clarke is a plus centerfielder, making jumps and tracking impressive balls. The speed is easily plus, and the ball jumps off Clarke’s bat. Being added to the 40-man roster, he should have a shot to play in the Athletics outfield in 2025.

Verdict: If you want an Athletics outfield prospect, Clarke is the one to buy. His defensive value is huge and his bat has steadily improved. As a 48-50 round pick? Easy Buy.

https://www.thedynastydugout.com/p/pros ... dium=email