BA Blue Jays Top 10
1. Aaron Sanchez, rhp
Background: One of the youngest players in the 2010 draft, Sanchez was the 34th overall pick and signed for a below-slot $775,000 bonus. He paid immediate dividends, as just months after the draft in instructional league, his velocity jumped from 93-94 mph to 97. An above-average athlete, the 6-foot-4, 190-pound Sanchez has long limbs and a wiry, angular build that will accommodate additional strength gains. Toronto has been careful with his workload, and Sanchez was limited to 22 games and 86 innings in 2013 after missing more than a month with shoulder discomfort. He started six times in the Arizona Fall League and had the second-highest strikeout rate (24 percent) of any pitcher with more than 20 innings, showcasing his immense potential.
Scouting Report: Sanchez has standout stuff and is lauded as an intelligent student of the game with a quiet aggression on the mound. His heavy fastball can sit 93-98 mph with plus life. It explodes out of his hand with smooth and effortless arm action. He throws a four-seamer with above-average cutting action to his glove side and increased the use of a two-seamer to his armside. Sanchez induces groundballs at a high rate, as his 2.34 groundout/flyout ratio was the second-best mark of any high Class A Florida State League pitcher with 80 or more innings. His curveball has plus potential with tilt and depth. TrackMan data from the AFL indicated his breaker’s spin rate is 21 percent higher than the major league average. Sanchez has a tendency to get on the side on the pitch, creating slider tilt and a large velocity discrepancy. His changeup is currently an average offering but has plus potential with late tumble and fade. Despite his easy arm action, Sanchez has posted below-average control numbers. His delivery underwent a transformation this season, as he had a tendency to miss up and armside, getting under his pitches. The organization shortened his stride length in order to have him work over the ball more with greater downhill plane. This made his arm action more compact and consistent. If he can maintain his plane to the plate, Sanchez could increase his stride length. He cut his walk rate (11.1 percent) in 2013, but it was still 31 percent higher than the FSL average. He walked more hitters (14.3 percent) out of the stretch than he struck out (13.6 percent) in 2013. In his 20 healthy regular season starts, he averaged just more than four innings per outing.
The Future: To reach his ceiling as a No. 2 starter, Sanchez will have to improve his control. But there are few pitchers in the minors with his ceiling and talent. If he can’t show the control to start, he has the stuff to become a high-end closer. He’s likely to start 2014 at Double-A.
4. Mitch Nay, 3B
Background: The grandson of Lou Klimchock, who played in the big leagues over parts of 12 seasons, Nay signed for $1 million in 2012 but broke his foot before playing that summer. He showed above-average hitting and power potential in 2013 and was MVP of the short-season Northwest League playoffs as he pushed Vancouver to its third consecutive title.
Scouting Report: With a large frame and strong build, the physical Nay has the potential to a middle-of-the-order hitter with power and on-base ability. In extended spring training, Nay raised his hitting load, got rid of his bat waggle and shortened his stride, shortening his swing path. He has bat speed and quick hands and makes hard contact to all fields. Scouts praise his contact ability, up-the-middle approach and ability to drive the ball to right field. He could be an above-average hitter to go with his 70-grade raw power. He has an advanced approach and should get on base at an above-average clip. Nay, who has a plus arm, is a below-average runner with adequate range but good hands at third. He led Appy League third basemen with 17 errors, and improving his lateral quickness and pre-pitch setup will be key for him to remain at the position.
The Future: Nay’s advanced approach should earn him a spot at low Class A Lansing for 2014. If he moves off third, he moves well enough to play right field.
8. Alberto Tirado, rhp
Background: The Jays signed Tirado for $300,000 in 2011 as part of a deep international crop. Tirado, who has the highest upside of any pitcher on a deep Rookie-level Appalachian League staff, helped pitch Bluefield to the Appalachian League playoffs in 2013.
Scouting Report: The athletic Tirado is an unrefined pitcher whom scouts can dream on because he has some of the most electric stuff in the lower minors. He has a thin, wiry build, long limbs and a loose arm that is lightning quick, and the ball explodes out his hand. His fastball sat 92-96 mph with late life and touched 98, and he is working a sinker into game action. Tirado has two sliders, the harder of which (high 80s) could become a true swing-and-miss offering. He can get around on his sliders, causing them to flatten. His changeup is ahead of his breaking ball, which some believe has the higher long-term ceiling and plus potential. Both offspeed pitches improved substantially in 2013. Tirado has below-average command, with a tendency to overthrow, and has trouble staying on line to the plate, rushing his delivery and lacking balance at release.
The Future: Tirado has No. 2 starter upside if he can maintain his electric stuff over extended innings and refine his delivery. He has a chance to earn a spot in the low Class A Lansing rotation in 2014, likely after starting in extended spring training.
Top 15 Players 25 & Under
4. Drew Hutchison, rhp (23) Triple-A
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Dwight (Winnipeg): Sanchez has reportedly altered his delivery and concerns have been expressed that he is less effective as a result. What was the reason for the change and will this affect his projectabiity to be a potential #1 starter?
Clint Longenecker: This has been a hot-button topic on the internet of late. The reason is simple, Sanchez has had trouble throwing strikes, as his 2012 walk rate was 51 higher than league average. The organization believed that Sanchez was getting under the ball, causing him to miss up and armside too frequently. In an attempt to get him on top of the ball more and working downhill, Sanchez shortened his stride (because he was often late into foot strike, which caused him finishing up and arm side). By reducing the amount of time his stride leg was in the air, the variables were reduced. And he began to work over the ball more, getting more plane to the plate and throwing more strikes. His walk rate improved to 31 percent above league average. Many people have pointed out that he is more upright in his delivery and this is true because he used to tilt on his backside a little bit, but this has been reduced. That is where things stand presently, and he groundball rate was well above-average this year, demonstrating that he is working over the ball more and has at least plus fastball life. After getting more comfortable with this aspect of his delivery, Sanchez ideally should be able to increase his stride length to where it was before while maintaining that plane to the plate. So, expect further adjustments going forward. If this was not clear please let me know and I will try to clarify.
Brett (Columbus, OH): What do your reports on Miguel Castro say? What's his potential ceiling?
Clint Longenecker: Tough to say because he spent so little time stateside, is so young (18) and has so much developmental time left. But he could be a stud. Now this is a body you can dream on. He is big (6'5), very lean and oozes projection. Guys that look like this end up playing on TV some day. He can touch 96 and has feel for turning over a pretty good CH. He throws from a low arm slot and will likely be very tough on some side hitters, as he has a long stride, the ball jumps out of his hand and his fastball has life from a tough slot. Keep Castro in mind because the dream is big and the ceiling is high.
Ryan (Birdland): Mitch Nay's counterpart across the diamond last year helped form a formidable lineup. Obviously Nay has more prospect value than Matt Dean so long as Nay is at thirdbase, but can you quickly compare the 2 offensively? Thanks!
Clint Longenecker: Although not exactly the same, they have similar power potential. Both have big-time raw power and can drive the ball out of any part of the park. The difference comes in the utility of the hit tool and the overall approach, and both of these all the power to play. Nay struck out in only 13.6 % of his PA and Dean struck out in 24.5% of his, and this was in Dean's second season in the league. Nay's approach is lauded and he has a discerning eye, walking in nearly 10% of PAs versus 6% for Dean. This is not to crush Dean, who has made serious strides in the last year, but to show the ways they are different and why so many evaluators believe that Nay can be an above-average hitter.
Dan (Toronto): Who are some of the prospects in the system that the Blue Jas feel have the best make up/character
Clint Longenecker: Great question, Dan. Mitch Nay is widely praised for his work ethic, intensity, love for the game and ability to take to instruction.
Clint Longenecker: This has been a hot-button topic on the internet of late. The reason is simple, Sanchez has had trouble throwing strikes, as his 2012 walk rate was 51 higher than league average. The organization believed that Sanchez was getting under the ball, causing him to miss up and armside too frequently. In an attempt to get him on top of the ball more and working downhill, Sanchez shortened his stride (because he was often late into foot strike, which caused him finishing up and arm side). By reducing the amount of time his stride leg was in the air, the variables were reduced. And he began to work over the ball more, getting more plane to the plate and throwing more strikes. His walk rate improved to 31 percent above league average. Many people have pointed out that he is more upright in his delivery and this is true because he used to tilt on his backside a little bit, but this has been reduced. That is where things stand presently, and he groundball rate was well above-average this year, demonstrating that he is working over the ball more and has at least plus fastball life. After getting more comfortable with this aspect of his delivery, Sanchez ideally should be able to increase his stride length to where it was before while maintaining that plane to the plate. So, expect further adjustments going forward. If this was not clear please let me know and I will try to clarify.
Brett (Columbus, OH): What do your reports on Miguel Castro say? What's his potential ceiling?
Clint Longenecker: Tough to say because he spent so little time stateside, is so young (18) and has so much developmental time left. But he could be a stud. Now this is a body you can dream on. He is big (6'5), very lean and oozes projection. Guys that look like this end up playing on TV some day. He can touch 96 and has feel for turning over a pretty good CH. He throws from a low arm slot and will likely be very tough on some side hitters, as he has a long stride, the ball jumps out of his hand and his fastball has life from a tough slot. Keep Castro in mind because the dream is big and the ceiling is high.
Ryan (Birdland): Mitch Nay's counterpart across the diamond last year helped form a formidable lineup. Obviously Nay has more prospect value than Matt Dean so long as Nay is at thirdbase, but can you quickly compare the 2 offensively? Thanks!
Clint Longenecker: Although not exactly the same, they have similar power potential. Both have big-time raw power and can drive the ball out of any part of the park. The difference comes in the utility of the hit tool and the overall approach, and both of these all the power to play. Nay struck out in only 13.6 % of his PA and Dean struck out in 24.5% of his, and this was in Dean's second season in the league. Nay's approach is lauded and he has a discerning eye, walking in nearly 10% of PAs versus 6% for Dean. This is not to crush Dean, who has made serious strides in the last year, but to show the ways they are different and why so many evaluators believe that Nay can be an above-average hitter.
Dan (Toronto): Who are some of the prospects in the system that the Blue Jas feel have the best make up/character
Clint Longenecker: Great question, Dan. Mitch Nay is widely praised for his work ethic, intensity, love for the game and ability to take to instruction.
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Andrew (Waterloo, ON): You have Aaron Sanchez pegged as a potential #2 - which by all means is a lofty projection regardless of the prospect... However, I am curious to hear what he is lacking to have the upside of a #1 ace - from the outside looking in, his intelligence combined with his stuff makes it appear that if everything were to work out he has ace upside. What is he missing?
Clint Longenecker: Andrew, great question. And you are on the right track. In terms of stuff, the raw ingredients are there- great body made for handling innings, big velo, at least plus FB life, high ground ball rate, CB and CH that could both be plus. This is more of a philosophical point but even guys that could become No. 1s dont profile as No. 1s because part of being a No. 1 or "ace" is that you have to prove it at the ML level. It is based on ability, but also track record and performance, as well as durability. This is where he falls short. He hasnt done it yet (obviously). And two big things hold him back- control and innings, which will be the keys to his development going forward. No. 1 starters are expected to log 200+ IP annually. He only averaged 4 IP a start in his 20 healthy starts this year and accumulated 109 IP. Assuming an increase of 30-40 IP annually it will take him some time to build up to this threshold. Second, his control needs to improve. Although he cut his walk rate this year, it was still 31% above Florida State League average. No. 1s are capable of limiting free passes at an above-average rate. He is so athletic and is such a hard worker things could come together for him very quickly and obviously if the control improves it will help him accrue more innings, quickly. That all sounds like nitpicking but these are the keys to his developmental process and reaching his ceiling because it is so vast, and he is so talented. If everything comes together, watch out.
Clint Longenecker: Andrew, great question. And you are on the right track. In terms of stuff, the raw ingredients are there- great body made for handling innings, big velo, at least plus FB life, high ground ball rate, CB and CH that could both be plus. This is more of a philosophical point but even guys that could become No. 1s dont profile as No. 1s because part of being a No. 1 or "ace" is that you have to prove it at the ML level. It is based on ability, but also track record and performance, as well as durability. This is where he falls short. He hasnt done it yet (obviously). And two big things hold him back- control and innings, which will be the keys to his development going forward. No. 1 starters are expected to log 200+ IP annually. He only averaged 4 IP a start in his 20 healthy starts this year and accumulated 109 IP. Assuming an increase of 30-40 IP annually it will take him some time to build up to this threshold. Second, his control needs to improve. Although he cut his walk rate this year, it was still 31% above Florida State League average. No. 1s are capable of limiting free passes at an above-average rate. He is so athletic and is such a hard worker things could come together for him very quickly and obviously if the control improves it will help him accrue more innings, quickly. That all sounds like nitpicking but these are the keys to his developmental process and reaching his ceiling because it is so vast, and he is so talented. If everything comes together, watch out.
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John (Spring Valley, MN): Does Tirado have the upside to be much higher next year on this list?
Clint Longenecker: You bet! He could have even been higher on this list and he could really jump if he can show the same stuff over extended innings at a full-season club, continues to improve his control and repeat his delivery. You cant dream too big on Tirado because the potential is immense. Just proving it at a full season level over 100+ IP will help move away from a tough profile to defeat- the small (hes listed at 6’1 but probably under 6’0) electric armed Dominican righthander with below-average control and some effort in his delivery. Too often this type of pitcher ends up in the bullpen, and many believe Tirado will stay in the rotation, but another year will only provide further evidence that distances him from this profile.
Clint Longenecker: You bet! He could have even been higher on this list and he could really jump if he can show the same stuff over extended innings at a full-season club, continues to improve his control and repeat his delivery. You cant dream too big on Tirado because the potential is immense. Just proving it at a full season level over 100+ IP will help move away from a tough profile to defeat- the small (hes listed at 6’1 but probably under 6’0) electric armed Dominican righthander with below-average control and some effort in his delivery. Too often this type of pitcher ends up in the bullpen, and many believe Tirado will stay in the rotation, but another year will only provide further evidence that distances him from this profile.
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BP Yanks Top 10
2. Jose Ramirez
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 potential SL; 7 potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Ramirez failed to log 100 innings for the second straight season, once again plagued by injuries that continue to keep the 23-year-old arm from blossoming into a frontline prospect.
Strengths: Excellent size/strength; athletic; arm speed is special; fastball is easy plus pitch; routinely works in the mid-90s; touches higher; late life; changeup is money pitch; excellent arm speed and late action; plus-plus potential with better command; slider flashes high quality; sharp with big tilt.
Weaknesses: Delivery is inconsistent; doesn’t repeat/below-average command; slider can get too slurvy/loses arm speed and is deliberate; injuries limit potential.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2/3 starter
Realistic Role: High 5; late-innings reliever (setup)
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; long history of injury
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: While he gets fewer press clippings than Rafael De Paula, Ramirez’ stuff firmly places him as the top fantasy option among pitchers in this system. Fortunately for him, it’s been historically easier for pitching prospects to find a place in the Bronx than it has for position players. In the rotation, he could be a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, but with some giveback in WHIP, a la Lance Lynn.
The Year Ahead: I’m a very big fan of Jose Ramirez, although he’s probably a long shot to stick around in a rotation. That said, the arm is special, and the fastball/changeup combo will make him an impact pitcher at the highest level. If he can stay healthy (big if) and take steps forward with his delivery and overall command, Ramirez could develop into a high leverage reliever, perhaps even a closer if it really comes together. The arm is that good.
4. Slade Heathcott
The Tools: 5 potential hit; 6 arm; 6 potential glove; 7 run.
What Happened in 2013: Even though he missed time with injury (a tradition for Heathcott), he still managed to play a career-high 103 games.
Strengths: Plus-plus athleticism; high-end physical tools; run is plus-plus; arm is plus; glove is above average; gap pop; some bat to ball ability; could develop into average hitter.
Weaknesses: Balls-to-the-wall approach on all sides of the ball; reckless; overly aggressive at the plate; struggles against spin; loses balance; noisy in pre-swing; limited bat control in the zone; game power to play below average.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: High 4; bench outfielder/below-average major leaguer
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; injury history; big gap between projection and present.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Heathcott’s value will be predicated on his speed, and the lack of stolen base attempts at the minor-league level isn’t making his case particularly well. At his best, he could be a light version of Brett Gardner, with a .260-.270 average, a handful of homers and 25-30 steals. Of course, that power could tick up at Yankee Stadium, but the odds of him calling that stadium home are low compared to other similar prospects.
The Year Ahead: You can make the case that Heathcott has the highest tool-based ceiling in the entire organization, with impressive physical gifts and the ability to play an up-the-middle position. His game lacks nuance, with an all-or-nothing approach and a highly contagious but often reckless style of play that limits his ability to stay healthy. If he can put the bat to the ball with enough consistency, he can bring his legs into the equation and possibly hit for a respectable average. Along with his defensive ability, this would allow him to develop into a major-league regular, and perhaps more if the bat really steps up. The likely outcome is a versatile bench outfielder with speed and a soft bat, a valuable player but a fraction of what the physical tools suggested was possible.
Major league ETA: Late 2014
3. RHP Jose Campos: I loved Campos when I saw him in the Mariners system, so its been highly disappointing to see injuries slow down his progress after coming over in the Montero/Pineda exchange in 2012. It’s foolish to blindly assume health, but if Campos can stay on the mound and get back on his developmental trajectory, he’s a top 10 player in this system and a legit major-league prospect. I still really like the stuff.
2. Jose Ramirez
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 potential SL; 7 potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Ramirez failed to log 100 innings for the second straight season, once again plagued by injuries that continue to keep the 23-year-old arm from blossoming into a frontline prospect.
Strengths: Excellent size/strength; athletic; arm speed is special; fastball is easy plus pitch; routinely works in the mid-90s; touches higher; late life; changeup is money pitch; excellent arm speed and late action; plus-plus potential with better command; slider flashes high quality; sharp with big tilt.
Weaknesses: Delivery is inconsistent; doesn’t repeat/below-average command; slider can get too slurvy/loses arm speed and is deliberate; injuries limit potential.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2/3 starter
Realistic Role: High 5; late-innings reliever (setup)
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; long history of injury
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: While he gets fewer press clippings than Rafael De Paula, Ramirez’ stuff firmly places him as the top fantasy option among pitchers in this system. Fortunately for him, it’s been historically easier for pitching prospects to find a place in the Bronx than it has for position players. In the rotation, he could be a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, but with some giveback in WHIP, a la Lance Lynn.
The Year Ahead: I’m a very big fan of Jose Ramirez, although he’s probably a long shot to stick around in a rotation. That said, the arm is special, and the fastball/changeup combo will make him an impact pitcher at the highest level. If he can stay healthy (big if) and take steps forward with his delivery and overall command, Ramirez could develop into a high leverage reliever, perhaps even a closer if it really comes together. The arm is that good.
4. Slade Heathcott
The Tools: 5 potential hit; 6 arm; 6 potential glove; 7 run.
What Happened in 2013: Even though he missed time with injury (a tradition for Heathcott), he still managed to play a career-high 103 games.
Strengths: Plus-plus athleticism; high-end physical tools; run is plus-plus; arm is plus; glove is above average; gap pop; some bat to ball ability; could develop into average hitter.
Weaknesses: Balls-to-the-wall approach on all sides of the ball; reckless; overly aggressive at the plate; struggles against spin; loses balance; noisy in pre-swing; limited bat control in the zone; game power to play below average.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: High 4; bench outfielder/below-average major leaguer
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; injury history; big gap between projection and present.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Heathcott’s value will be predicated on his speed, and the lack of stolen base attempts at the minor-league level isn’t making his case particularly well. At his best, he could be a light version of Brett Gardner, with a .260-.270 average, a handful of homers and 25-30 steals. Of course, that power could tick up at Yankee Stadium, but the odds of him calling that stadium home are low compared to other similar prospects.
The Year Ahead: You can make the case that Heathcott has the highest tool-based ceiling in the entire organization, with impressive physical gifts and the ability to play an up-the-middle position. His game lacks nuance, with an all-or-nothing approach and a highly contagious but often reckless style of play that limits his ability to stay healthy. If he can put the bat to the ball with enough consistency, he can bring his legs into the equation and possibly hit for a respectable average. Along with his defensive ability, this would allow him to develop into a major-league regular, and perhaps more if the bat really steps up. The likely outcome is a versatile bench outfielder with speed and a soft bat, a valuable player but a fraction of what the physical tools suggested was possible.
Major league ETA: Late 2014
3. RHP Jose Campos: I loved Campos when I saw him in the Mariners system, so its been highly disappointing to see injuries slow down his progress after coming over in the Montero/Pineda exchange in 2012. It’s foolish to blindly assume health, but if Campos can stay on the mound and get back on his developmental trajectory, he’s a top 10 player in this system and a legit major-league prospect. I still really like the stuff.
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Arismendy Alcantara (Iowa): I feel like I have much more #want than Soler, but he's got some serious #rig and a big ceiling. I think I'm a better bet to reach mine though. Any chance I'm a better pro? How do I fit in this crowded infield in three years?
Jason Parks: Soler has a higher ceiling, but less feel for the game and less ability to make adjustments. He's a higher rated prospect because of the enormous raw power, which could end up manifesting itself as 30 bombs at the major league level, something you will never bring to the table. But you have a good chance of being the better major league player, despite not being the better minor league prospect. I know that's a ridiculous statement, but I believe it to be true. You could be Jose Reyes-light, and Soler could end up a AAAA type.
Jackson (Cal): Any red flags with Addison Russell that makes you think he won't reach his ceiling?
Jason Parks: He's not from Texas. That's about it. I can't think of many weaknesses in his game that he can't overcome as he develops.
David (Montreal): Where would you rank the Blue Jays farm system? Also, which Jays will you rank in top 101?
Jason Parks: I might show some sack and rank them in the top 10 in baseball. Not sure yet. It's a strong system, but its also a very high risk system. I like ceilings, so I'll probably blow them up a bit.
Jays in the top 101? Stroman, Sanchez, Tirado, Norris.
Nick (Williamsburg): Thanks for the chat Jason! Who do you think you'll rate higher in your Top 10 prospect list for the Padres: Matthew Wisler or Max Fried? Who has the higher ceiling?
Jason Parks: Wisler will rank higher; Fried has a slightly higher ceiling. Hedges is the alpha of that system, though.
cracker73 (Florida): Jason, could you rank these pitchers by upside? Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Glasnow, and Julio Urias. Thanks.
Jason Parks: Sanchez, Urias, Glasnow
Jason Parks: Soler has a higher ceiling, but less feel for the game and less ability to make adjustments. He's a higher rated prospect because of the enormous raw power, which could end up manifesting itself as 30 bombs at the major league level, something you will never bring to the table. But you have a good chance of being the better major league player, despite not being the better minor league prospect. I know that's a ridiculous statement, but I believe it to be true. You could be Jose Reyes-light, and Soler could end up a AAAA type.
Jackson (Cal): Any red flags with Addison Russell that makes you think he won't reach his ceiling?
Jason Parks: He's not from Texas. That's about it. I can't think of many weaknesses in his game that he can't overcome as he develops.
David (Montreal): Where would you rank the Blue Jays farm system? Also, which Jays will you rank in top 101?
Jason Parks: I might show some sack and rank them in the top 10 in baseball. Not sure yet. It's a strong system, but its also a very high risk system. I like ceilings, so I'll probably blow them up a bit.
Jays in the top 101? Stroman, Sanchez, Tirado, Norris.
Nick (Williamsburg): Thanks for the chat Jason! Who do you think you'll rate higher in your Top 10 prospect list for the Padres: Matthew Wisler or Max Fried? Who has the higher ceiling?
Jason Parks: Wisler will rank higher; Fried has a slightly higher ceiling. Hedges is the alpha of that system, though.
cracker73 (Florida): Jason, could you rank these pitchers by upside? Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Glasnow, and Julio Urias. Thanks.
Jason Parks: Sanchez, Urias, Glasnow
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FanGraphs Padres Top 10 Prospects
#1 Austin Hedges | 60/AA (C)
The Year in Review: Injuries held Hedges to just 86 games played during the regular season but he earned a late-season promotion to Double-A after spending most of the year in A-ball. The young catcher showed solid gap power but not even the potent California League could help him hit more than four home runs in 233 at-bats. He got some extra playing time in after the regular season with 15 appearances in the Arizona Fall League.
The Scouting Report: Arguably the best all-around defensive catcher in the minors, there isn’t really anything Hedges doesn’t do well behind the plate. He’s the type of backstop that brings out the best in his pitchers and he controls the running game with aplomb. Hedges’ offensive potential is still open for debate, especially since we can’t read too much into his numbers from the California League. Based on his skills, though, he should be able to provide enough offence to justify playing everyday for the benefit of his glove. The good news is that he makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out a ton. Just don’t expect a high on-base percentage or much power.
The Year Ahead: Hedges should return to Double-A to open the 2014 season but could reach Triple-A in the second half — if he’s not pushed all the way to the Majors. Both projected big league backstops (Nick Hundley and Rene Rivera) are probably better suited to back-up or platoon roles.
The Career Outlook: Hedges should receive a taste of big league action by the end of 2014 and could be ready to take over the starting gig in San Diego at the beginning of 2015. He’ll probably never set the world on fire with his bat but the glove is something special.
#2 Matt Wisler | 60/AA (P)
The Year in Review: Drafted out of high school with a seventh round pick in 2011, Wisler had one of the worst debut appearances a pitcher can have (no outs recorded, two hits, two walks, four runs scored) but he then went on to dominate Single-A and Double-A hitters over the next two seasons. In 2013, he made just six appearances in High-A ball before moving up to Double-A where he made another 20 appearances. In total, he pitched 136.0 innings and struck out 131 batters.
The Scouting Report: Wisler has always had plus control but his command has also improved. He features a four-pitch repertoire that includes a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. His best secondary pitch is a potentially-plus slider and he also has a curveball and changeup. Wisler has good size and should be a durable pitcher but he could stand to induce more ground-ball outs by leveraging his height. His splits suggest he needs to improve either his changeup or curveball to help combat left-handed batters.
The Year Ahead: Wisler should move up to Triple-A in 2014 where he’ll look to add a little polish to his overall game before he earns a second-half call-up to The Show.
The Career Outlook: Just 21 years old, Wisler is almost ready for the Majors and could have a long career ahead of him as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
#3 Max Fried | 60/A- (P)
The Year in Review: One of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game, Fried is quite polished for a teenager with just two pro seasons under his belt. He spent the 2013 season in Low-A ball where he allowed just 107 hits in 118.2 innings of work. He struggled a little more with his control than expected and he issued 56 free passes.
The Scouting Report: Fried does an outstanding job of staying on top of his pitches and pounds the lower half of the zone. Fried’s repertoire includes two potentially plus offerings in his low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball. His changeup needs more development than the other two pitches but it should be average or better in time. He nibbles more than he needs to given his solid present stuff, which led to the higher walk rate, as well as a lower strikeout rate.
The Year Ahead: Fried will move up to High-A ball in 2014 but he could actually spend more time in Double-A. He could push for a big league promotion by the end of 2015.
The Career Outlook: Fried has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter with the ability to rack up both strikeouts and ground-ball outs.
#1 Austin Hedges | 60/AA (C)
The Year in Review: Injuries held Hedges to just 86 games played during the regular season but he earned a late-season promotion to Double-A after spending most of the year in A-ball. The young catcher showed solid gap power but not even the potent California League could help him hit more than four home runs in 233 at-bats. He got some extra playing time in after the regular season with 15 appearances in the Arizona Fall League.
The Scouting Report: Arguably the best all-around defensive catcher in the minors, there isn’t really anything Hedges doesn’t do well behind the plate. He’s the type of backstop that brings out the best in his pitchers and he controls the running game with aplomb. Hedges’ offensive potential is still open for debate, especially since we can’t read too much into his numbers from the California League. Based on his skills, though, he should be able to provide enough offence to justify playing everyday for the benefit of his glove. The good news is that he makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out a ton. Just don’t expect a high on-base percentage or much power.
The Year Ahead: Hedges should return to Double-A to open the 2014 season but could reach Triple-A in the second half — if he’s not pushed all the way to the Majors. Both projected big league backstops (Nick Hundley and Rene Rivera) are probably better suited to back-up or platoon roles.
The Career Outlook: Hedges should receive a taste of big league action by the end of 2014 and could be ready to take over the starting gig in San Diego at the beginning of 2015. He’ll probably never set the world on fire with his bat but the glove is something special.
#2 Matt Wisler | 60/AA (P)
The Year in Review: Drafted out of high school with a seventh round pick in 2011, Wisler had one of the worst debut appearances a pitcher can have (no outs recorded, two hits, two walks, four runs scored) but he then went on to dominate Single-A and Double-A hitters over the next two seasons. In 2013, he made just six appearances in High-A ball before moving up to Double-A where he made another 20 appearances. In total, he pitched 136.0 innings and struck out 131 batters.
The Scouting Report: Wisler has always had plus control but his command has also improved. He features a four-pitch repertoire that includes a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. His best secondary pitch is a potentially-plus slider and he also has a curveball and changeup. Wisler has good size and should be a durable pitcher but he could stand to induce more ground-ball outs by leveraging his height. His splits suggest he needs to improve either his changeup or curveball to help combat left-handed batters.
The Year Ahead: Wisler should move up to Triple-A in 2014 where he’ll look to add a little polish to his overall game before he earns a second-half call-up to The Show.
The Career Outlook: Just 21 years old, Wisler is almost ready for the Majors and could have a long career ahead of him as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
#3 Max Fried | 60/A- (P)
The Year in Review: One of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game, Fried is quite polished for a teenager with just two pro seasons under his belt. He spent the 2013 season in Low-A ball where he allowed just 107 hits in 118.2 innings of work. He struggled a little more with his control than expected and he issued 56 free passes.
The Scouting Report: Fried does an outstanding job of staying on top of his pitches and pounds the lower half of the zone. Fried’s repertoire includes two potentially plus offerings in his low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball. His changeup needs more development than the other two pitches but it should be average or better in time. He nibbles more than he needs to given his solid present stuff, which led to the higher walk rate, as well as a lower strikeout rate.
The Year Ahead: Fried will move up to High-A ball in 2014 but he could actually spend more time in Double-A. He could push for a big league promotion by the end of 2015.
The Career Outlook: Fried has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter with the ability to rack up both strikeouts and ground-ball outs.
Last edited by Yankees on Mon Dec 23, 2013 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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FanGraphs Astros Top 10
#6 Vincent Velasquez | 60/A+ (P)
The Year in Review: Velasquez, 21, enjoyed success in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2011 season. The former second round draft pick (2010) out of a California high school began 2013 in Low-A where he made 25 appearances (16 starts). He received a late-season promotion to High-A ball where he had another three starts. In total, he struck out 142 batters with a strong ground-ball rate in 124.2 innings.
The Scouting Report: Like Foltynewicz, Velasquez in another well-kept secret from the rest of baseball. He does a little bit of everything with solid a solid fastball (90-94 mph), above-average control, the ability to induce ground-ball outs and a strong frame that should be able to provide lots of innings if his elbow is sound. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball needs a lot of refinement and the lost development time didn’t do Velasquez any favors.
The Year Ahead: His performance in spring training will likely help dictate if Velasquez starts the year in High-A or Double-A ball. My guess is that he’ll open the season with five or six starts in A-ball to continue working on his breaking ball before facing the more advanced opponents.
The Career Outlook: If he can sharpen his curveball, Velasquez could develop into a solid No. 3 starter for the Astros. If not, he could end up as a back-end starter or set-up man.
#8 Domingo Santana | 55/AA (OF)
The Year in Review: Santana followed up his excellent 2012 campaign (aided by the Cal League environment) with a solid Double-A season. He slugged 20+ home runs for the second straight season but saw his batting average dip 50 points and he struck out 139 times in 112 games. After the regular season concluded, Santana received some additional experience in the Dominican Winter League.
The Scouting Report: The Dominican native generates impressive right-handed power due to his massive size, strong forearms and solid bat speed. However, he has an aggressive approach and struggles with pitch recognition at times, which leads to his high strikeout rates and will likely result in a low batting average in the big leagues. Defensively, he plays a respectable right field and possesses a strong arm.
The Year Ahead: Still just 21, Santana will likely move up Triple-A for his sixth pro season but lacks a clear path to the Majors in 2014 with fellow outfield prospect George Springer ahead of him on the depth chart.
The Career Outlook: Santana could develop into an average or better corner outfielder with two plus tools in his power and arm but a questionable hit tool.
#6 Vincent Velasquez | 60/A+ (P)
The Year in Review: Velasquez, 21, enjoyed success in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2011 season. The former second round draft pick (2010) out of a California high school began 2013 in Low-A where he made 25 appearances (16 starts). He received a late-season promotion to High-A ball where he had another three starts. In total, he struck out 142 batters with a strong ground-ball rate in 124.2 innings.
The Scouting Report: Like Foltynewicz, Velasquez in another well-kept secret from the rest of baseball. He does a little bit of everything with solid a solid fastball (90-94 mph), above-average control, the ability to induce ground-ball outs and a strong frame that should be able to provide lots of innings if his elbow is sound. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball needs a lot of refinement and the lost development time didn’t do Velasquez any favors.
The Year Ahead: His performance in spring training will likely help dictate if Velasquez starts the year in High-A or Double-A ball. My guess is that he’ll open the season with five or six starts in A-ball to continue working on his breaking ball before facing the more advanced opponents.
The Career Outlook: If he can sharpen his curveball, Velasquez could develop into a solid No. 3 starter for the Astros. If not, he could end up as a back-end starter or set-up man.
#8 Domingo Santana | 55/AA (OF)
The Year in Review: Santana followed up his excellent 2012 campaign (aided by the Cal League environment) with a solid Double-A season. He slugged 20+ home runs for the second straight season but saw his batting average dip 50 points and he struck out 139 times in 112 games. After the regular season concluded, Santana received some additional experience in the Dominican Winter League.
The Scouting Report: The Dominican native generates impressive right-handed power due to his massive size, strong forearms and solid bat speed. However, he has an aggressive approach and struggles with pitch recognition at times, which leads to his high strikeout rates and will likely result in a low batting average in the big leagues. Defensively, he plays a respectable right field and possesses a strong arm.
The Year Ahead: Still just 21, Santana will likely move up Triple-A for his sixth pro season but lacks a clear path to the Majors in 2014 with fellow outfield prospect George Springer ahead of him on the depth chart.
The Career Outlook: Santana could develop into an average or better corner outfielder with two plus tools in his power and arm but a questionable hit tool.
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Pie (Somewhere): Major and minor-league player you think are headed for a breakout.
Craig Goldstein: On the minor league side I think Alberto Tirado will really light it up. In the majors, I think Chris Owings can be really interesting if he wins the job.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): SS Prospect Watch: Addison Russell vs. Alen Hanson. Who has a bigger upside and who is less of a risk?
Craig Goldstein: Russell and Russell. I like Hanson ok, but they're not in the same class. Also, there's a decent chance Hanson isn't a SS long-term.
JoJo (SD): Matt Wisler - starter or reliever?
Craig Goldstein: Starter and a damn good one.
Ben Skole (Your heart): I hear you have a thing for Arismendy Alcantara. Tell me why. Now tell me what he can do for my fantasy team. Tell me.
Craig Goldstein: I do indeed. I think he can be a .275/.340/.450 type hitter, at least early on, with some solid speed. What excites me most is his improvements in production WHILE moving up the chain. I like that he makes adjustments. I'm not sure if that projection is aggressive or conservative, but I don't like to put anything past a guy who can make adjustments like that.
Craig Goldstein: On the minor league side I think Alberto Tirado will really light it up. In the majors, I think Chris Owings can be really interesting if he wins the job.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): SS Prospect Watch: Addison Russell vs. Alen Hanson. Who has a bigger upside and who is less of a risk?
Craig Goldstein: Russell and Russell. I like Hanson ok, but they're not in the same class. Also, there's a decent chance Hanson isn't a SS long-term.
JoJo (SD): Matt Wisler - starter or reliever?
Craig Goldstein: Starter and a damn good one.
Ben Skole (Your heart): I hear you have a thing for Arismendy Alcantara. Tell me why. Now tell me what he can do for my fantasy team. Tell me.
Craig Goldstein: I do indeed. I think he can be a .275/.340/.450 type hitter, at least early on, with some solid speed. What excites me most is his improvements in production WHILE moving up the chain. I like that he makes adjustments. I'm not sure if that projection is aggressive or conservative, but I don't like to put anything past a guy who can make adjustments like that.
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Nationals wrote:Pie (Somewhere): Major and minor-league player you think are headed for a breakout.
Craig Goldstein: On the minor league side I think Alberto Tirado will really light it up. In the majors, I think Chris Owings can be really interesting if he wins the job.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): SS Prospect Watch: Addison Russell vs. Alen Hanson. Who has a bigger upside and who is less of a risk?
Craig Goldstein: Russell and Russell. I like Hanson ok, but they're not in the same class. Also, there's a decent chance Hanson isn't a SS long-term.
JoJo (SD): Matt Wisler - starter or reliever?
Craig Goldstein: Starter and a damn good one.
Ben Skole (Your heart): I hear you have a thing for Arismendy Alcantara. Tell me why. Now tell me what he can do for my fantasy team. Tell me.
Craig Goldstein: I do indeed. I think he can be a .275/.340/.450 type hitter, at least early on, with some solid speed. What excites me most is his improvements in production WHILE moving up the chain. I like that he makes adjustments. I'm not sure if that projection is aggressive or conservative, but I don't like to put anything past a guy who can make adjustments like that.
Chris Owings shoutout, thanks Z!
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Yankees
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Nice article on the newest IBC Nat, Stephen Bruno...
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2014/1/2 ... phen-bruno
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2014/1/2 ... phen-bruno
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Good as any place for a draft retrospective. I'm not going to look at what I did with them, or where they are now IBC-wise...just how they turned out.
My philosophy has been trade to trade my 1st rounders and pretend like I know what I'm doing in the later rounds. That was not overwhelmingly smart thinking.
2008:
Johnny Giavotella - The man has proven quite adept at hitting AAA pitching, just has been far less successful at the MLB level. Only 25 and incredibly accomplished at AAA, there may be more yet still.
Tyler Sample - Still has big, big stuff...still can't find the plate. My repeat HA for the 4th year coming up.
Jason Knapp - Reached all the way up to #64 prospect on BA, but injuries knocked him out of baseball after the 2010 season.
Isaac Galloway - An absolute toolshed in the Desmond Jennings/Carl Crawford mold, he has put together decent seasons...just has never got it all together. Keeps moving up...
Yowill Espinal - I was surprised to find him still playing baseball. He still can't hit for shit.
2009:
Jacob Turner - He's turning into a heck of a young pitcher (as most though), but he needs to find a way to strike more people out and stay consistently healthy.
J.R. Murphy - Just like a catcher, took a few years to develop, but is finding his way strongly on the map as a prospect. A decent fielder, his bat will be what carries him...just to a team that's not the Yankees, probably.
Jeff Kobernus - Looks the part of a utility player long term, but he can hit a little. Reaching the pros from where he was drafted is no small feat, and he could turn into a valuable player for the Nats.
Brandon Jacobs - He was drafted as a prospect with high upside, and remains just that with very little development. He may have a clearer path with the White Sox than Red Sox for opportunities.
Chad Jenkins - I thought he was someone he wasn't, he wasn't, and he's been out of baseball since 2011.
Steven Matz - This is a player I drafted knowing I would need to have some patience with, I didn't, and it will haunt me. The kid can deal from the left side...
Yuniesky Maya - A flier from Cuba, got me some decent IP's for a year, not much else you can ask from a pick this late.
2010:
I didn't draft this year because I was on vacation and forgot about the draft. As always, I'm an idiot.
2011:
Bobby Crocker - No picks in the top 100, Crocker had a mini-breakout in the Cal League in 2013...but a breakout in the Cal League is like saying Bren could have a mini-breakout with women if he got stranded on an island of only women.
Clay Holmes - Another player who I drafted knowing there would be a development curve, gave up on, and they keep developing. He needs to find the strike zone with more consistency, but his stuff is excellent.
Dillon Thomas - He, he does not look good. Still young and with tools, just a long way to go.
Matthew Wisler - An absolute home run...and somehow picked up in 2012 and still on my team. He could be a top 40 prospect this year.
Matthew Duran - He still has promise, but injuries have kept him well behind the development curve. Almost off the Yankees prospect radar at this point.
2012:
Pat Light - Excellent stuff, a horrible developmental year in 2013. This will probably not go down as a good pick
Henry Urrutia - Great scouting by me. Turned into a decent trade chip for me, and looks like he'll be a strong MLB hitter...just mostly postionless.
Mason Melotakis - Has made an excellent transition from a college reliever to a pro starter, and features good stuff from the left side. If he puts together a '14 like his '13, he'll move quickly on prospect charts.
Corey Black - Another guy with big time stuff who started to put everything together in 2013. With new life in the Cubs system, he's another who may move quickly up prospect lists.
Darnell Sweeney - I've still got my eye on him. He has a good bat, good pop, and will be staying at ss for the foreseeable future. Wouldn't be surprised if he finds his way back to my squad in the near future.
My philosophy has been trade to trade my 1st rounders and pretend like I know what I'm doing in the later rounds. That was not overwhelmingly smart thinking.
2008:
Johnny Giavotella - The man has proven quite adept at hitting AAA pitching, just has been far less successful at the MLB level. Only 25 and incredibly accomplished at AAA, there may be more yet still.
Tyler Sample - Still has big, big stuff...still can't find the plate. My repeat HA for the 4th year coming up.
Jason Knapp - Reached all the way up to #64 prospect on BA, but injuries knocked him out of baseball after the 2010 season.
Isaac Galloway - An absolute toolshed in the Desmond Jennings/Carl Crawford mold, he has put together decent seasons...just has never got it all together. Keeps moving up...
Yowill Espinal - I was surprised to find him still playing baseball. He still can't hit for shit.
2009:
Jacob Turner - He's turning into a heck of a young pitcher (as most though), but he needs to find a way to strike more people out and stay consistently healthy.
J.R. Murphy - Just like a catcher, took a few years to develop, but is finding his way strongly on the map as a prospect. A decent fielder, his bat will be what carries him...just to a team that's not the Yankees, probably.
Jeff Kobernus - Looks the part of a utility player long term, but he can hit a little. Reaching the pros from where he was drafted is no small feat, and he could turn into a valuable player for the Nats.
Brandon Jacobs - He was drafted as a prospect with high upside, and remains just that with very little development. He may have a clearer path with the White Sox than Red Sox for opportunities.
Chad Jenkins - I thought he was someone he wasn't, he wasn't, and he's been out of baseball since 2011.
Steven Matz - This is a player I drafted knowing I would need to have some patience with, I didn't, and it will haunt me. The kid can deal from the left side...
Yuniesky Maya - A flier from Cuba, got me some decent IP's for a year, not much else you can ask from a pick this late.
2010:
I didn't draft this year because I was on vacation and forgot about the draft. As always, I'm an idiot.
2011:
Bobby Crocker - No picks in the top 100, Crocker had a mini-breakout in the Cal League in 2013...but a breakout in the Cal League is like saying Bren could have a mini-breakout with women if he got stranded on an island of only women.
Clay Holmes - Another player who I drafted knowing there would be a development curve, gave up on, and they keep developing. He needs to find the strike zone with more consistency, but his stuff is excellent.
Dillon Thomas - He, he does not look good. Still young and with tools, just a long way to go.
Matthew Wisler - An absolute home run...and somehow picked up in 2012 and still on my team. He could be a top 40 prospect this year.
Matthew Duran - He still has promise, but injuries have kept him well behind the development curve. Almost off the Yankees prospect radar at this point.
2012:
Pat Light - Excellent stuff, a horrible developmental year in 2013. This will probably not go down as a good pick
Henry Urrutia - Great scouting by me. Turned into a decent trade chip for me, and looks like he'll be a strong MLB hitter...just mostly postionless.
Mason Melotakis - Has made an excellent transition from a college reliever to a pro starter, and features good stuff from the left side. If he puts together a '14 like his '13, he'll move quickly on prospect charts.
Corey Black - Another guy with big time stuff who started to put everything together in 2013. With new life in the Cubs system, he's another who may move quickly up prospect lists.
Darnell Sweeney - I've still got my eye on him. He has a good bat, good pop, and will be staying at ss for the foreseeable future. Wouldn't be surprised if he finds his way back to my squad in the near future.
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Rockies BP Top 10
4. David Dahl
The Tools: 7 potential hit; 6 run; 5 power potential; 6+ arm; 6 potential glove
What Happened in 2013: A hamstring injury derailed his much-anticipated full-season debut and an early season disciplinary issue received more media attention and significance than necessary.
Strengths: Athletic and strong; natural hitter; easy, line-drive stroke; plus bat speed and bat control; plus run; strong arm; glove with above-average projection; could be legit five-tool player; strong work ethic and high baseball IQ.
Weaknesses: Reads/routes need refinement in the field; swing is more short to the ball and linear than leveraged for over-the-fence; power might not develop into plus tool; can get fastball happy and aggressive.
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player
Realistic Role: 6; first-division player
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; limited professional experience; season-ending injury in 2013 (right hamstring).
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The same fantasy upside that surrounded him after his Pioneer League MVP season is still there. However, with some of the shine off, he may be undervalued at the moment. It’s hard to wrangle a hitting prospect in the Colorado system away from his owner, but Dahl is worth inquiring about before the 2014 season starts. He could be a .300 hitting top-of-the-order player with 15 homers and 30 steals if it breaks right.
The Year Ahead: 2013 was a wash for Dahl, but now fully healthy and ready for action, the five-tool talent should waste little time establishing (anew) his standing as a top tier prospect. With an advanced and projectable hit tool, Low-A pitchers won’t have much success against Dahl, and if the game power can continue to grow, the offensive profile—in combination with his projectable defensive chops in the outfield—could push his developmental ascent into high gear. After a lost year and only 10 games above the short-season level, its aggressive to assume Dahl could reach Double-A in 2014. But several sources think he has the bat to move quickly once he regains his footing and suggested it was possible if everything clicks.
Major league ETA: 2016
4. David Dahl
The Tools: 7 potential hit; 6 run; 5 power potential; 6+ arm; 6 potential glove
What Happened in 2013: A hamstring injury derailed his much-anticipated full-season debut and an early season disciplinary issue received more media attention and significance than necessary.
Strengths: Athletic and strong; natural hitter; easy, line-drive stroke; plus bat speed and bat control; plus run; strong arm; glove with above-average projection; could be legit five-tool player; strong work ethic and high baseball IQ.
Weaknesses: Reads/routes need refinement in the field; swing is more short to the ball and linear than leveraged for over-the-fence; power might not develop into plus tool; can get fastball happy and aggressive.
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player
Realistic Role: 6; first-division player
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; limited professional experience; season-ending injury in 2013 (right hamstring).
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The same fantasy upside that surrounded him after his Pioneer League MVP season is still there. However, with some of the shine off, he may be undervalued at the moment. It’s hard to wrangle a hitting prospect in the Colorado system away from his owner, but Dahl is worth inquiring about before the 2014 season starts. He could be a .300 hitting top-of-the-order player with 15 homers and 30 steals if it breaks right.
The Year Ahead: 2013 was a wash for Dahl, but now fully healthy and ready for action, the five-tool talent should waste little time establishing (anew) his standing as a top tier prospect. With an advanced and projectable hit tool, Low-A pitchers won’t have much success against Dahl, and if the game power can continue to grow, the offensive profile—in combination with his projectable defensive chops in the outfield—could push his developmental ascent into high gear. After a lost year and only 10 games above the short-season level, its aggressive to assume Dahl could reach Double-A in 2014. But several sources think he has the bat to move quickly once he regains his footing and suggested it was possible if everything clicks.
Major league ETA: 2016
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More on Dahl from Twitter...
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 2h @ProfessorParks this is really high on Tapia if he and Dahl both dominate the SAL/CAL next year could they both be top 50 guys?
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 2h @Pogue009 Easily.
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 2h @ProfessorParks Have heard Dahl comped to Damon, do you have a skillset comp for Tapia's best case?
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 2h @Pogue009 Dahl has a strong arm; different build. Not a fan of the Damon comp. It doesn't fit for me. It feels forced.
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 1h @ProfessorParks agree the patience isn't quit there either but both Dahl/Tapia have excellent contact skills it seems with 20/20 upside
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 1h @Pogue009 Yep. And both can play center. That Low-A team is going to be stacked.
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 2h @ProfessorParks this is really high on Tapia if he and Dahl both dominate the SAL/CAL next year could they both be top 50 guys?
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 2h @Pogue009 Easily.
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 2h @ProfessorParks Have heard Dahl comped to Damon, do you have a skillset comp for Tapia's best case?
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 2h @Pogue009 Dahl has a strong arm; different build. Not a fan of the Damon comp. It doesn't fit for me. It feels forced.
Thomas ‏@Pogue009 1h @ProfessorParks agree the patience isn't quit there either but both Dahl/Tapia have excellent contact skills it seems with 20/20 upside
Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 1h @Pogue009 Yep. And both can play center. That Low-A team is going to be stacked.
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Natanael Delgado love from BP & FanGraphs:
BP:
Prospects on the Rise:
1. LF Natanel Delgado: Making a return trip to the On the Rise category, Delgado has a case for inclusion in the top 10 on the strength of his offensive projection alone. With bat speed and good pop from the left-side, Delgado has impact potential with the bat, but his aggressive approach and lack of feel for the game has some questioning whether or not he will ever develop enough skills to make it work.
FanGraphs:
13. Natanael Delgado: Just 18 years old, the left-handed hitting Delgado is years away from realizing his full potential but he has the skill set to develop into an average or better right-fielder for the Angels. He needs to temper his aggressive nature, which might help him tap into his raw power potential by giving him better pitches to drive.
BP:
Prospects on the Rise:
1. LF Natanel Delgado: Making a return trip to the On the Rise category, Delgado has a case for inclusion in the top 10 on the strength of his offensive projection alone. With bat speed and good pop from the left-side, Delgado has impact potential with the bat, but his aggressive approach and lack of feel for the game has some questioning whether or not he will ever develop enough skills to make it work.
FanGraphs:
13. Natanael Delgado: Just 18 years old, the left-handed hitting Delgado is years away from realizing his full potential but he has the skill set to develop into an average or better right-fielder for the Angels. He needs to temper his aggressive nature, which might help him tap into his raw power potential by giving him better pitches to drive.
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blainespellman: How does Dahl compare to Meadows with the Pirates? Similar players?
BP staff member Jason Parks: Dahl has a much better bat, in my opinion, with a better chance of staying up the middle. My guess is that Meadows turns into a bat-first LF type, whereas Dahl has a bigger arm, better run, and in my opinion, more bat speed/better swing.
You can make a case that Meadows--in the snapshot--is a better prospect right now, especially with Dahl losing a season to injury. But it won't take long for Dahl to surpass Meadows in the prospect world.
BP staff member Jason Parks: Dahl has a much better bat, in my opinion, with a better chance of staying up the middle. My guess is that Meadows turns into a bat-first LF type, whereas Dahl has a bigger arm, better run, and in my opinion, more bat speed/better swing.
You can make a case that Meadows--in the snapshot--is a better prospect right now, especially with Dahl losing a season to injury. But it won't take long for Dahl to surpass Meadows in the prospect world.
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BP Padres Top 10 Prospects
1. Austin Hedges
The Tools: 6+ arm; 7+ potential glove; 5+ potential hit
What Happened in 2013: After a successful full-season debut in 2013, Hedges took another step forward in 2013, playing his way to the Texas League to finish the regular season, and then showed off his impressive defensive chops in the prospect-heavy landscape of the Arizona Fall League.
Strengths: Near-elite defensive profile behind the plate; plus arm; quick release and accurate; excellent footwork; excellent receiver; strong hands and quick feet; high baseball IQ; excels at game management and battery relationship; good swing at the plate; tracks well; shows good bat speed and strength; has some pop; crazy makeup.
Weaknesses: Can get overly aggressive with the arm (back picks, etc); bat unlikely to achieve big impact; struggles against arm-side stuff; good not great bat speed; can drive the ball but power unlikely to play above average; below-average run.
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player
Realistic Role: 6; first-division player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; limited exposure to upper minors; questions about offensive utility.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The fact that I’d probably take Hedges seventh or eighth for fantasy purposes says everything you need to know about his defensive potential. Unfortunately, unless you’re in a sim league, he’s just not going to be much more than a borderline use of a farm spot—even if he maxes out and hits around .275 with 15 homers, that’s barely above replacement level in one-catcher leagues. If you can shop him on his name value, do it.
The Year Ahead: Hedges is the best all-around defensive catcher I’ve had the privilege of scouting at the minor-league level, with a strong, accurate arm, quick and coordinated actions, and the in-game management qualities of a seasoned major-league veteran. The glove is going to carry him a long way, but the bat could make him a perennial all-star if he proves to be more than just a tough down-the-lineup out. He has some offensive qualities, with a sound swing and good strength, and it’s not a stretch to envision a .275 hitter with 15 HR pop, a formidable profile given his near elite defensive projections. We were high on Hedges last season (#1 in the org and top 20 overall in the game), and will continue to sing his praises heading into 2014, as he once again takes the top place in the system and will once again find himself ranked among the top 20 prospects in the game.
Major league ETA: 2015
2. Matt Wisler
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential SL; 5+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Early buzz in spring training turned into an industry choir over the course of the season, as Wisler proved to be more than just camp hype, pitching his way to Double-A and missing a bat an inning as a 20-year-old.
Strengths: Good size; athletic; big arm strength; fastball works comfortably in the 92-94 range; can touch 98 in shorter bursts; good arm-side life; slider is bat misser; low-mid-80s with sharp two-plane movement and excellent depth; punisher pitch against right-handed bats; changeup shows average potential; mid-80s with sink; good deception; flashes playable curveball; good feel for control.
Weaknesses: Delivery has some noise; tendency to cross-fire and lose release points; struggles to locate against left-handers; slider not as effective against LH; overall command is fringe-average at present; changeup can get too firm; curveball can lose tight rotation and feature more tumble than snap.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; 20 Double-A starts; mature stuff.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Wisler offers that combination of upside, floor, attractive home park and proximity that is so attractive to fantasy owners—especially ones in deeper leagues. The Padres’ rotation may be full to start the year, but with the way they go through UCLs, an opportunity is likely to present itself before mid-season. He can do a pretty good Mat Latos-in-Petco impression, with a full tick down in strikeouts.
The Year Ahead: Wisler looked the part of a major-league arm during his stint in Double-A, so its easy to forget the former seventh round pick was only 20 years old and still in the developmental process. The delivery doesn’t always look the part despite the utility he is able to achieve, and the command doesn’t always allow the plus raw stuff to play to its potential. But with more refinement, Wisler can not only stick in a rotation long term, but thrive in the middle of it, with two easy plus weapons in the fastball and slider, and two playable change-of-pace pitches in the changeup and curve.
Major league ETA: 2014
3. Max Fried
The Tools: 6 potential FB; 6+ potential CB; 6+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: In his full-season debut, the much-hyped lefty flashed the stuff to justify the lofty praise, but battled command inconsistency throughout the year and struggled against right-handed bats.
Strengths: Excellent size/physical projection; delivery is easy and smooth; excellent arm action; fastball has some jump in the low 90s; projects to settle in the plus velocity range; good late action to the arm-side; snaps very good curveball (present); tight rotation and heavy break; bat-misser (at present); changeup might end up as best pitch; good arm deception and late action; will be difference maker offering.
Weaknesses: Fastball command is below average; tendency to cast his pitches and lose deception and intensity; fastball is pedestrian at times; curveball might end up being a better minor-league pitch than major-league pitch; break can be long and easy to track; changeup can hang up in the zone.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; yet to achieve Double-A level; sizeable gap between present/future.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Wisler vs. Fried is still a very tough decision, as no one in the Padres’ system can touch Fried’s ceiling. I said before the season that I thought Fried would be top left-handed fantasy pitching prospect in the minors at the end of the 2013 season—and he is, although that’s more because it’s a weak group overall than his performance. A 3.25 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning are possible if he can make that next step forward.
The Year Ahead: Fried’s size, present stuff and arsenal projection set a high bar of expectations, so when the results are only solid, the evaluation can read as a bit of a disappointment. Fried has a long way to go, but could/should end up with three above-average offerings from the left side, with enough athleticism and simplicity in the delivery to project for at least an average command profile. I think the changeup will eventually pass the curveball as his go-to secondary offering, but both have a chance to play as plus pitches at the end of the day. If the fastball velocity ticks up and holds steady, and the command refines, Fried is going to live up to the hype and then some. He will pitch the 2014 season as a 20-year-old, so the prospect explosion might be a year away.
Major league ETA: 2016
4. Hunter Renfroe
The Tools: 7 power potential; 6 arm; 5+ potential glove; 5+ run
What Happened in 2013: Selected 13th overall in the 2013 draft, Renfroe was considered one of the better college bats in the class, a well-rounded player with middle-of-the-lineup impact power.
Strengths: Excellent strength; good athlete; good bat speed; power is carrying tool; could play to plus-plus; swing geared for over-the-fence power; leverage, loft, and back spin; good run; coordinated; glove could play above average in a corner; arm is strong; run producer profile with some hittability.
Weaknesses: Swing-and-miss in the profile; tracks well but likes to swing and can get overly aggressive; can struggle against arm-side spin; power over hit; offensive profile could become one-dimensional at highest level.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; limited professional experience; questions about hit tool.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Having just clocked in at no. 14 in my dynasty draft rankings, Renfroe has the power/speed combo that fantasy owners look for—even if it comes packaged inside a questionable hit tool. He should move relatively fast as a college hitter, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can hit 25-plus homers and steal close to 20 bases in his prime.
The Year Ahead: Renfroe has well above-average right handed power, and if the hit tool can play to average, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order power bat from a prototypical right field profile. His game is always going to feature a lot of swing-and-miss; not because of poor pitch recognition but because of an aggressive approach and hearty swing appetite. But Renfroe has more hittability than hack, and with a more refined approach and controlled attack, he can bring more power into game action and develop to potential. This is really promising offensive talent, and he is a good candidate to blossom in 2014.
Major league ETA: Late 2015
Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2014)
1. RHP Leonel Campos: The 26-year-old Venezuelan has some of the nastiest stuff you will see at the minor-league level; a lively plus-plus fastball and an assortment of secondary pitches (changeup, splitter, hard curveball) that all featured intense trapdoor like movement that would be easier to explain if everybody in the world took psychotropic drugs. He’s a high-end bat misser with legit late-inning relief potential, but the command profile is below average and would need refinement to keep a major-league manager from chewing off his own fingers in high-leverage situations. Fun arm to watch, though.
BP Padres Top 10 Prospects
1. Austin Hedges
The Tools: 6+ arm; 7+ potential glove; 5+ potential hit
What Happened in 2013: After a successful full-season debut in 2013, Hedges took another step forward in 2013, playing his way to the Texas League to finish the regular season, and then showed off his impressive defensive chops in the prospect-heavy landscape of the Arizona Fall League.
Strengths: Near-elite defensive profile behind the plate; plus arm; quick release and accurate; excellent footwork; excellent receiver; strong hands and quick feet; high baseball IQ; excels at game management and battery relationship; good swing at the plate; tracks well; shows good bat speed and strength; has some pop; crazy makeup.
Weaknesses: Can get overly aggressive with the arm (back picks, etc); bat unlikely to achieve big impact; struggles against arm-side stuff; good not great bat speed; can drive the ball but power unlikely to play above average; below-average run.
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player
Realistic Role: 6; first-division player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; limited exposure to upper minors; questions about offensive utility.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The fact that I’d probably take Hedges seventh or eighth for fantasy purposes says everything you need to know about his defensive potential. Unfortunately, unless you’re in a sim league, he’s just not going to be much more than a borderline use of a farm spot—even if he maxes out and hits around .275 with 15 homers, that’s barely above replacement level in one-catcher leagues. If you can shop him on his name value, do it.
The Year Ahead: Hedges is the best all-around defensive catcher I’ve had the privilege of scouting at the minor-league level, with a strong, accurate arm, quick and coordinated actions, and the in-game management qualities of a seasoned major-league veteran. The glove is going to carry him a long way, but the bat could make him a perennial all-star if he proves to be more than just a tough down-the-lineup out. He has some offensive qualities, with a sound swing and good strength, and it’s not a stretch to envision a .275 hitter with 15 HR pop, a formidable profile given his near elite defensive projections. We were high on Hedges last season (#1 in the org and top 20 overall in the game), and will continue to sing his praises heading into 2014, as he once again takes the top place in the system and will once again find himself ranked among the top 20 prospects in the game.
Major league ETA: 2015
2. Matt Wisler
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential SL; 5+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Early buzz in spring training turned into an industry choir over the course of the season, as Wisler proved to be more than just camp hype, pitching his way to Double-A and missing a bat an inning as a 20-year-old.
Strengths: Good size; athletic; big arm strength; fastball works comfortably in the 92-94 range; can touch 98 in shorter bursts; good arm-side life; slider is bat misser; low-mid-80s with sharp two-plane movement and excellent depth; punisher pitch against right-handed bats; changeup shows average potential; mid-80s with sink; good deception; flashes playable curveball; good feel for control.
Weaknesses: Delivery has some noise; tendency to cross-fire and lose release points; struggles to locate against left-handers; slider not as effective against LH; overall command is fringe-average at present; changeup can get too firm; curveball can lose tight rotation and feature more tumble than snap.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; 20 Double-A starts; mature stuff.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Wisler offers that combination of upside, floor, attractive home park and proximity that is so attractive to fantasy owners—especially ones in deeper leagues. The Padres’ rotation may be full to start the year, but with the way they go through UCLs, an opportunity is likely to present itself before mid-season. He can do a pretty good Mat Latos-in-Petco impression, with a full tick down in strikeouts.
The Year Ahead: Wisler looked the part of a major-league arm during his stint in Double-A, so its easy to forget the former seventh round pick was only 20 years old and still in the developmental process. The delivery doesn’t always look the part despite the utility he is able to achieve, and the command doesn’t always allow the plus raw stuff to play to its potential. But with more refinement, Wisler can not only stick in a rotation long term, but thrive in the middle of it, with two easy plus weapons in the fastball and slider, and two playable change-of-pace pitches in the changeup and curve.
Major league ETA: 2014
3. Max Fried
The Tools: 6 potential FB; 6+ potential CB; 6+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: In his full-season debut, the much-hyped lefty flashed the stuff to justify the lofty praise, but battled command inconsistency throughout the year and struggled against right-handed bats.
Strengths: Excellent size/physical projection; delivery is easy and smooth; excellent arm action; fastball has some jump in the low 90s; projects to settle in the plus velocity range; good late action to the arm-side; snaps very good curveball (present); tight rotation and heavy break; bat-misser (at present); changeup might end up as best pitch; good arm deception and late action; will be difference maker offering.
Weaknesses: Fastball command is below average; tendency to cast his pitches and lose deception and intensity; fastball is pedestrian at times; curveball might end up being a better minor-league pitch than major-league pitch; break can be long and easy to track; changeup can hang up in the zone.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; yet to achieve Double-A level; sizeable gap between present/future.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Wisler vs. Fried is still a very tough decision, as no one in the Padres’ system can touch Fried’s ceiling. I said before the season that I thought Fried would be top left-handed fantasy pitching prospect in the minors at the end of the 2013 season—and he is, although that’s more because it’s a weak group overall than his performance. A 3.25 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning are possible if he can make that next step forward.
The Year Ahead: Fried’s size, present stuff and arsenal projection set a high bar of expectations, so when the results are only solid, the evaluation can read as a bit of a disappointment. Fried has a long way to go, but could/should end up with three above-average offerings from the left side, with enough athleticism and simplicity in the delivery to project for at least an average command profile. I think the changeup will eventually pass the curveball as his go-to secondary offering, but both have a chance to play as plus pitches at the end of the day. If the fastball velocity ticks up and holds steady, and the command refines, Fried is going to live up to the hype and then some. He will pitch the 2014 season as a 20-year-old, so the prospect explosion might be a year away.
Major league ETA: 2016
4. Hunter Renfroe
The Tools: 7 power potential; 6 arm; 5+ potential glove; 5+ run
What Happened in 2013: Selected 13th overall in the 2013 draft, Renfroe was considered one of the better college bats in the class, a well-rounded player with middle-of-the-lineup impact power.
Strengths: Excellent strength; good athlete; good bat speed; power is carrying tool; could play to plus-plus; swing geared for over-the-fence power; leverage, loft, and back spin; good run; coordinated; glove could play above average in a corner; arm is strong; run producer profile with some hittability.
Weaknesses: Swing-and-miss in the profile; tracks well but likes to swing and can get overly aggressive; can struggle against arm-side spin; power over hit; offensive profile could become one-dimensional at highest level.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; limited professional experience; questions about hit tool.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Having just clocked in at no. 14 in my dynasty draft rankings, Renfroe has the power/speed combo that fantasy owners look for—even if it comes packaged inside a questionable hit tool. He should move relatively fast as a college hitter, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can hit 25-plus homers and steal close to 20 bases in his prime.
The Year Ahead: Renfroe has well above-average right handed power, and if the hit tool can play to average, he has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order power bat from a prototypical right field profile. His game is always going to feature a lot of swing-and-miss; not because of poor pitch recognition but because of an aggressive approach and hearty swing appetite. But Renfroe has more hittability than hack, and with a more refined approach and controlled attack, he can bring more power into game action and develop to potential. This is really promising offensive talent, and he is a good candidate to blossom in 2014.
Major league ETA: Late 2015
Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2014)
1. RHP Leonel Campos: The 26-year-old Venezuelan has some of the nastiest stuff you will see at the minor-league level; a lively plus-plus fastball and an assortment of secondary pitches (changeup, splitter, hard curveball) that all featured intense trapdoor like movement that would be easier to explain if everybody in the world took psychotropic drugs. He’s a high-end bat misser with legit late-inning relief potential, but the command profile is below average and would need refinement to keep a major-league manager from chewing off his own fingers in high-leverage situations. Fun arm to watch, though.
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Yankees
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John (Oakland): When do we see Addison Russell in the majors? Do you see him as an All Star someday at a position that seems to be getting deeper?
Mark Anderson: Russell could be up this year, as crazy as that sounds. They don't need to push him that hard, but he's forcing the issue by dominating every challenge they put in front of him. He has a chance to be one of the best players in the game.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): Pick one of three following Pirates prospects to shoot up lists next year: Heredia, Hanson, or Bell
Mark Anderson: I'll take Josh Bell in that scenario. The reports really transformed in the second half of the season and he appeared to be getting back to what made him such a highly thought of draft pick.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): How much will Austin Hedges hit? What will be his average slash line?
Mark Anderson: With his defensive abilities, I'm not sure it really matters how much he hits. That may be a slight exaggeration, but not much. In reality, I think he's a decent hitter that can hit .260-.270 with gap power; combine that with his defense and that's a helluva player.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): best long-term overall catching prospect (balancing risk vs. ceiling)?
Mark Anderson: Austin Hedges.
Matt473 (Austin): I hear mixed opinions on Vincent Velasquez. Is he a 2 starter or more of a back end guy for you?
Mark Anderson: I never got a#2 vibe from him when I saw him pitch in the NYPL, and the reports I've received from scouts that saw him in the MWL all considered him more of a #3/4 type.
Peter (Des Moines): What do you think of Aaron Sanchez? Potential #2?
Mark Anderson: I think the raw ceiling suggests more, but in the end I think that is a realistic ceiling for Sanchez. He may still not get to that level and he wouldn't be a huge disappointment if that happened.
jaymoff (Salem): Do you see Allen Webster living up to the stuff and being that #1/2 type SP or is a setup guy all he becomes?
Mark Anderson: I don't think I've ever seen him projected as a #1/2 starter; more of a #3 (which is no insult). At this point, particularly because of his inability to maintain velocity deep into starts, I think he's a reliever.
Mark Anderson: Russell could be up this year, as crazy as that sounds. They don't need to push him that hard, but he's forcing the issue by dominating every challenge they put in front of him. He has a chance to be one of the best players in the game.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): Pick one of three following Pirates prospects to shoot up lists next year: Heredia, Hanson, or Bell
Mark Anderson: I'll take Josh Bell in that scenario. The reports really transformed in the second half of the season and he appeared to be getting back to what made him such a highly thought of draft pick.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): How much will Austin Hedges hit? What will be his average slash line?
Mark Anderson: With his defensive abilities, I'm not sure it really matters how much he hits. That may be a slight exaggeration, but not much. In reality, I think he's a decent hitter that can hit .260-.270 with gap power; combine that with his defense and that's a helluva player.
fishersehorn31 (VA - The 540): best long-term overall catching prospect (balancing risk vs. ceiling)?
Mark Anderson: Austin Hedges.
Matt473 (Austin): I hear mixed opinions on Vincent Velasquez. Is he a 2 starter or more of a back end guy for you?
Mark Anderson: I never got a#2 vibe from him when I saw him pitch in the NYPL, and the reports I've received from scouts that saw him in the MWL all considered him more of a #3/4 type.
Peter (Des Moines): What do you think of Aaron Sanchez? Potential #2?
Mark Anderson: I think the raw ceiling suggests more, but in the end I think that is a realistic ceiling for Sanchez. He may still not get to that level and he wouldn't be a huge disappointment if that happened.
jaymoff (Salem): Do you see Allen Webster living up to the stuff and being that #1/2 type SP or is a setup guy all he becomes?
Mark Anderson: I don't think I've ever seen him projected as a #1/2 starter; more of a #3 (which is no insult). At this point, particularly because of his inability to maintain velocity deep into starts, I think he's a reliever.
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Yankees
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FanGraphs Brewers Top 10
13. Jed Bradley: A former first rounder, Bradley’s career has been a disappointment to date due in part to decreased velocity and his 2013 was shortened by a shoulder injury. If he can beat the injury bug, the southpaw may end up in the bullpen or the back end of a starting rotation.
13. Jed Bradley: A former first rounder, Bradley’s career has been a disappointment to date due in part to decreased velocity and his 2013 was shortened by a shoulder injury. If he can beat the injury bug, the southpaw may end up in the bullpen or the back end of a starting rotation.
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Yankees
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BP Giants Top 10
3. Edwin Escobar
The Tools: 5+ FB; 5 potential SL; 5+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Escobar arrived on the national prospect scene in 2012 with a strong Sally League season, but after pitching his way to the Double-A level in 2013, the soon-to-be 22-year-old southpaw could be knocking on the door of the majors with another step forward this season.
Strengths: Good strength; delivery works well; plus pitchability; fastball can pack a punch in the low 90s; plus offering at times with some arm-side life; changeup is best secondary pitch; good fastball disguise and late action; shows a playable slider with some tilt; good strike-thrower.
Weaknesses: Thick build with some maintenance concerns; can lose angle and work arm side and up; fastball can dip into upper 80s; can play pedestrian at times; breaking ball lacks big upside; slider can get too slurvy and loose; relies more on location and sequence than pure stuff.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 54 innings at Double-A level; lacks much projection; solid-average stuff.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It’s going to become painfully clear as this list continues, most of these guys are decent options for fantasy, but no one outside of Kyle Crick has real high-end stuff. With his strong command profile, Escobar is likely to be of most help in the non-strikeout categories—though he won’t be a dud in the missing-bats department. Think more along the lines of good Matt Harrison value (from someone who likes Harrison).
The Year Ahead: I’ve been watching Escobar since he first signed with the Rangers back in 2008, and his developmental journey from lottery ticket trade throw-in to number three prospect in the Giants’ system is quite remarkable. Back in his complex-league days, Escobar had a very promising high three-quarters curveball, a true plus potential offering that he could snap and throw for strikes. At present, Escobar’s lack of highly projectable breaking ball has several sources thinking his future is more likely as a back-end starter or reliever than an impact arm in the middle of a rotation. The development journey can be strange. The Venezuelan southpaw mixes his pitches well, relying heavily on his solid-average fastball and quality changeup to miss bats and keep hitters off balance, mixing in a slider that has been especially effective against left-handed bats. He’s a good arm and a future major leaguer—which is a huge win for the Giants regardless of the outcome—but a long shot to reach his ultimate upside without a step forward in playable intensity from the slider and more consistent velocity from the fastball.
Major league ETA: 2015
6. Andrew Susac
The Tools: 6 potential power; 5+ arm; 5 potential glove
What Happened in 2013: The former Oregon State product started to show more thunder in his stick at the Double-A level, and was even more impressive in a small 17-game sample in the Arizona Fall League
Strengths: Good present strength; body for backstop; raw power is plus; game power could play above average; clean, no frills stroke; shows some bat control; good approach; will force pitchers to work; glove could play to average; arm is solid-average to plus; good catch-and-throw skills.
Weaknesses: Shows swing-and-miss in the zone; struggles against velocity; hit tool likely to play below-average to fringe; could limit power utility; receiving skills need work; feet can get heavy; slow to the arm side on balls in the dirt; overall defensive profile lacks plus projection; well below-average runner.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; above-average regular
Realistic Role: High 4; below-average regular/backup catcher
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 84 games at Double-A level; questions about hit tool/receiving skills.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Susac has a likely future behind the plate and potential 15-homer pop (even in that stadium) in his corner, but the batting average is likely to be an issue. That said, if you are in an OBP league (or a points league), Susac is a stronger option as he has an advanced approach with strong walk rates to back it up.
The Year Ahead: Susac might appear as a power-first/only prospect, but he has enough chops behind the plate for a dual-threat profile, even if that profile is more solid-average than first-division or higher. The hit tool is a question mark, especially against quality stuff. But the strength in the swing is legit, and he’s going to run into some power at the highest level. The arm [read: ability to throw out baserunners] is his best defensive attribute, while the receiving and blocking components still come off as unrefined; the hands can be stiff and the footwork can be casual and sloppy. Despite the shortcomings, the overall profile could be an above-average regular, a down-the-lineup catcher with playable power that can control the running game and manage a battery. The numbers might not be sexy, but a 55 (20/80) backstop is an extremely valuable commodity to have under team control.
3. Edwin Escobar
The Tools: 5+ FB; 5 potential SL; 5+ potential CH
What Happened in 2013: Escobar arrived on the national prospect scene in 2012 with a strong Sally League season, but after pitching his way to the Double-A level in 2013, the soon-to-be 22-year-old southpaw could be knocking on the door of the majors with another step forward this season.
Strengths: Good strength; delivery works well; plus pitchability; fastball can pack a punch in the low 90s; plus offering at times with some arm-side life; changeup is best secondary pitch; good fastball disguise and late action; shows a playable slider with some tilt; good strike-thrower.
Weaknesses: Thick build with some maintenance concerns; can lose angle and work arm side and up; fastball can dip into upper 80s; can play pedestrian at times; breaking ball lacks big upside; slider can get too slurvy and loose; relies more on location and sequence than pure stuff.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 54 innings at Double-A level; lacks much projection; solid-average stuff.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It’s going to become painfully clear as this list continues, most of these guys are decent options for fantasy, but no one outside of Kyle Crick has real high-end stuff. With his strong command profile, Escobar is likely to be of most help in the non-strikeout categories—though he won’t be a dud in the missing-bats department. Think more along the lines of good Matt Harrison value (from someone who likes Harrison).
The Year Ahead: I’ve been watching Escobar since he first signed with the Rangers back in 2008, and his developmental journey from lottery ticket trade throw-in to number three prospect in the Giants’ system is quite remarkable. Back in his complex-league days, Escobar had a very promising high three-quarters curveball, a true plus potential offering that he could snap and throw for strikes. At present, Escobar’s lack of highly projectable breaking ball has several sources thinking his future is more likely as a back-end starter or reliever than an impact arm in the middle of a rotation. The development journey can be strange. The Venezuelan southpaw mixes his pitches well, relying heavily on his solid-average fastball and quality changeup to miss bats and keep hitters off balance, mixing in a slider that has been especially effective against left-handed bats. He’s a good arm and a future major leaguer—which is a huge win for the Giants regardless of the outcome—but a long shot to reach his ultimate upside without a step forward in playable intensity from the slider and more consistent velocity from the fastball.
Major league ETA: 2015
6. Andrew Susac
The Tools: 6 potential power; 5+ arm; 5 potential glove
What Happened in 2013: The former Oregon State product started to show more thunder in his stick at the Double-A level, and was even more impressive in a small 17-game sample in the Arizona Fall League
Strengths: Good present strength; body for backstop; raw power is plus; game power could play above average; clean, no frills stroke; shows some bat control; good approach; will force pitchers to work; glove could play to average; arm is solid-average to plus; good catch-and-throw skills.
Weaknesses: Shows swing-and-miss in the zone; struggles against velocity; hit tool likely to play below-average to fringe; could limit power utility; receiving skills need work; feet can get heavy; slow to the arm side on balls in the dirt; overall defensive profile lacks plus projection; well below-average runner.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; above-average regular
Realistic Role: High 4; below-average regular/backup catcher
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 84 games at Double-A level; questions about hit tool/receiving skills.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Susac has a likely future behind the plate and potential 15-homer pop (even in that stadium) in his corner, but the batting average is likely to be an issue. That said, if you are in an OBP league (or a points league), Susac is a stronger option as he has an advanced approach with strong walk rates to back it up.
The Year Ahead: Susac might appear as a power-first/only prospect, but he has enough chops behind the plate for a dual-threat profile, even if that profile is more solid-average than first-division or higher. The hit tool is a question mark, especially against quality stuff. But the strength in the swing is legit, and he’s going to run into some power at the highest level. The arm [read: ability to throw out baserunners] is his best defensive attribute, while the receiving and blocking components still come off as unrefined; the hands can be stiff and the footwork can be casual and sloppy. Despite the shortcomings, the overall profile could be an above-average regular, a down-the-lineup catcher with playable power that can control the running game and manage a battery. The numbers might not be sexy, but a 55 (20/80) backstop is an extremely valuable commodity to have under team control.
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Yankees
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DBacks BP Top 10
8. Sergio Alcantara
The Tools: 6 potential hit; 7 arm; 6+ potential glove
What Happened in 2013: After receiving a high six-figure bonus in the 2012 J2 window, Alcantara skipped over a Dominican complex assignment in 2013 and jumped straight to the stateside ball, where he was the youngest player in the Arizona league.
Strengths: Special instincts; impressive glove work at shortstop; easy and fluid actions; soft hands; glove could grade over plus; arm is well above average; a true weapon; instincts and a quick first step allow for range; good bat-to-ball-skills; mature approach tracks the ball very well; uses the middle of the diamond.
Weaknesses: Fringe run at present; lacks much projection with that tool; limited size and strength; bat could be empty (hit tool only); well below-average power potential.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: High 4; utility player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Extreme risk; complex-league resume; 17 years old
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: : The defense moves him onto this list from a real-life perspective, but Alcantara isn’t worth paying attention to for fantasy yet. We’ll check back in on him in another year.
The Year Ahead: Alcantara has the type of skill set to develop into a premier prospect, with instincts and feel for the game that you can’t teach, an impact arm, and slick actions in the field. The bat could be light, but the 17-year-old already shows an advanced approach and ability to track and react to pitches, so there’s a chance he can offer more than just slappy contact. The lack of speed could also be an issue, but the instincts and first-step help in the field, and with improved strength and conditioning, the speed might be able to play to average. Keep an eye on this kid.
Major league ETA: 2018
8. Sergio Alcantara
The Tools: 6 potential hit; 7 arm; 6+ potential glove
What Happened in 2013: After receiving a high six-figure bonus in the 2012 J2 window, Alcantara skipped over a Dominican complex assignment in 2013 and jumped straight to the stateside ball, where he was the youngest player in the Arizona league.
Strengths: Special instincts; impressive glove work at shortstop; easy and fluid actions; soft hands; glove could grade over plus; arm is well above average; a true weapon; instincts and a quick first step allow for range; good bat-to-ball-skills; mature approach tracks the ball very well; uses the middle of the diamond.
Weaknesses: Fringe run at present; lacks much projection with that tool; limited size and strength; bat could be empty (hit tool only); well below-average power potential.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: High 4; utility player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Extreme risk; complex-league resume; 17 years old
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: : The defense moves him onto this list from a real-life perspective, but Alcantara isn’t worth paying attention to for fantasy yet. We’ll check back in on him in another year.
The Year Ahead: Alcantara has the type of skill set to develop into a premier prospect, with instincts and feel for the game that you can’t teach, an impact arm, and slick actions in the field. The bat could be light, but the 17-year-old already shows an advanced approach and ability to track and react to pitches, so there’s a chance he can offer more than just slappy contact. The lack of speed could also be an issue, but the instincts and first-step help in the field, and with improved strength and conditioning, the speed might be able to play to average. Keep an eye on this kid.
Major league ETA: 2018
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A couple write-ups on the newest stud Nat, Albert Almora...
FanGraphs:
#3 Albert Almora | 65/A+ (OF)
The Year in Review: Almora’s season was shortened by injury and he appeared in just 61 games during the regular season. He still managed to post an .842 OPS with a batting average of more than .300. He made up for lost development time with a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he once again hit more than .300 and showed a solid approach at the plate while playing stellar defence.
The Scouting Report: The sixth overall selection from the 2012 draft, Almora’s best tool is his center-field defence based on outstanding range, instincts and plus arm strength. At the plate, he has a chance to hit for a high average because he uses the whole field and makes outstanding contact. Almora’s power potential is average at best. He’s not a base stealing threat but is an average runner.
The Year Ahead: A healthy Almora should move up to High-A ball. The key is for him to stay healthy for a full season but, if he continues to hit well, he might taste some Double-A action before the end of the season.
The Career Outlook: Almora could probably get to the Majors on the quality of his outfield glove alone but he’s also turning into a solid hitter, which could make him a future all-star.
Baseball America:
4. Albert Almora, of
Background: USA Baseball turned to Almora frequently during his amateur career. He tied A.J. Hinch’s record by playing on six national teams. The sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft signed for a $3.9 million bonus. His first full season was delayed until late May by a broken hamate in his left hand and ended in early August due to a groin pull.
Scouting Report: Almora has good tools and maximizes them with tremendous baseball instincts. His best tool is his bat, which scouts project as above-average or better. He has a loose swing, present strength and good hand-eye coordination. He uses the whole field, using what one club official calls a “no-ego approach” at the plate. Almora employs a leg kick and has to be on time but has good natural hitting rhythm. He projects to have average or better home run power. Almora is just an average runner, if not a tick below, but he has premium range in center field thanks to his impeccable breaks on the ball, first-step reactions and passion for playing defense. He has a plus, accurate arm as well.
The Future: Almora has taken system-mate Jorge Soler under his wing, and they played together in the Arizona Fall League to make up for time lost to injuries. A healthy Almora should move quickly and settle in as a talented glue guy in a lineup.
FanGraphs:
#3 Albert Almora | 65/A+ (OF)
The Year in Review: Almora’s season was shortened by injury and he appeared in just 61 games during the regular season. He still managed to post an .842 OPS with a batting average of more than .300. He made up for lost development time with a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he once again hit more than .300 and showed a solid approach at the plate while playing stellar defence.
The Scouting Report: The sixth overall selection from the 2012 draft, Almora’s best tool is his center-field defence based on outstanding range, instincts and plus arm strength. At the plate, he has a chance to hit for a high average because he uses the whole field and makes outstanding contact. Almora’s power potential is average at best. He’s not a base stealing threat but is an average runner.
The Year Ahead: A healthy Almora should move up to High-A ball. The key is for him to stay healthy for a full season but, if he continues to hit well, he might taste some Double-A action before the end of the season.
The Career Outlook: Almora could probably get to the Majors on the quality of his outfield glove alone but he’s also turning into a solid hitter, which could make him a future all-star.
Baseball America:
4. Albert Almora, of
Background: USA Baseball turned to Almora frequently during his amateur career. He tied A.J. Hinch’s record by playing on six national teams. The sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft signed for a $3.9 million bonus. His first full season was delayed until late May by a broken hamate in his left hand and ended in early August due to a groin pull.
Scouting Report: Almora has good tools and maximizes them with tremendous baseball instincts. His best tool is his bat, which scouts project as above-average or better. He has a loose swing, present strength and good hand-eye coordination. He uses the whole field, using what one club official calls a “no-ego approach” at the plate. Almora employs a leg kick and has to be on time but has good natural hitting rhythm. He projects to have average or better home run power. Almora is just an average runner, if not a tick below, but he has premium range in center field thanks to his impeccable breaks on the ball, first-step reactions and passion for playing defense. He has a plus, accurate arm as well.
The Future: Almora has taken system-mate Jorge Soler under his wing, and they played together in the Arizona Fall League to make up for time lost to injuries. A healthy Almora should move quickly and settle in as a talented glue guy in a lineup.
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Yankees
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BA Houston Top 10:
6. Vince Velasquez, rhp
Background: When he’s been healthy, Velasquez has been an effective pitcher, but staying healthy has been a battle. He didn’t pitch as a high school junior because of a strained elbow ligament and stress fracture in his arm. After impressing scouts as a pitcher and shortstop as a senior, he further damaged the elbow ligament in his pro debut at Rookie-level Greeneville in 2010, requiring Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. The Astros have been cautious since then, limiting Velasquez to nine starts in 2012 before letting him take a larger role in 2013.
Scouting Report: On a low Class A Quad Cities staff that included Lance McCullers Jr., Mark Appel and Josh Hader, he convinced some scouts he’ll be the best of the group. Velasquez has two plus pitches now and the chance to have a third average pitch. His fastball is an easy 92-95 mph and his changeup is extremely advanced for an inexperienced pitcher. He needs to tighten his below-average, loopy curveball, but he does show the feel to spin it.
The Future: Velasquez’s delivery has a slight crossfire aspect to it, but otherwise he throws free and easy. He’s in the picture for a crowded high Class A Lancaster rotation in 2014.
8. Domingo Santana, of
Background: Former general manager Ed Wade kicked off the Astros’ rebuild in July 2011 with the Hunter Pence trade, which brought back two 2013 big league rookies, righthanders Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid, plus Jonathan Singleton and Santana. Signed for $330,000 in 2009, Santana jumped straight to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League as a 16-year-old, which helps explain how he has more than 1,750 at-bats even though he’ll play most of the 2013 season at age 21.
Scouting Report: He fits the prototype of what scouts look for in a power-hitting right fielder, combining strength with athleticism. He’s average defensively with an above-average arm, and while he’s a physical 6-foot-5, he’s an average runner who even filled in as a center fielder at times in 2013. At the plate, Santana’s long arms ensure that he’ll always strike out some, something he exacerbates with a high hand position, which forces the bat to travel a long way to get through the zone. But when he gets his arms extended, he can hit the ball out of the park to all fields. At Double-A Corpus Christi in 2013, 11 of his 25 home runs went to right or center field.
The Future: Ready for Triple-A and added to the 40-man roster, Santana is ahead of schedule, but he needs further refinement before he’s ready to be a power threat in the middle of the Astros’ lineup.
6. Vince Velasquez, rhp
Background: When he’s been healthy, Velasquez has been an effective pitcher, but staying healthy has been a battle. He didn’t pitch as a high school junior because of a strained elbow ligament and stress fracture in his arm. After impressing scouts as a pitcher and shortstop as a senior, he further damaged the elbow ligament in his pro debut at Rookie-level Greeneville in 2010, requiring Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. The Astros have been cautious since then, limiting Velasquez to nine starts in 2012 before letting him take a larger role in 2013.
Scouting Report: On a low Class A Quad Cities staff that included Lance McCullers Jr., Mark Appel and Josh Hader, he convinced some scouts he’ll be the best of the group. Velasquez has two plus pitches now and the chance to have a third average pitch. His fastball is an easy 92-95 mph and his changeup is extremely advanced for an inexperienced pitcher. He needs to tighten his below-average, loopy curveball, but he does show the feel to spin it.
The Future: Velasquez’s delivery has a slight crossfire aspect to it, but otherwise he throws free and easy. He’s in the picture for a crowded high Class A Lancaster rotation in 2014.
8. Domingo Santana, of
Background: Former general manager Ed Wade kicked off the Astros’ rebuild in July 2011 with the Hunter Pence trade, which brought back two 2013 big league rookies, righthanders Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid, plus Jonathan Singleton and Santana. Signed for $330,000 in 2009, Santana jumped straight to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League as a 16-year-old, which helps explain how he has more than 1,750 at-bats even though he’ll play most of the 2013 season at age 21.
Scouting Report: He fits the prototype of what scouts look for in a power-hitting right fielder, combining strength with athleticism. He’s average defensively with an above-average arm, and while he’s a physical 6-foot-5, he’s an average runner who even filled in as a center fielder at times in 2013. At the plate, Santana’s long arms ensure that he’ll always strike out some, something he exacerbates with a high hand position, which forces the bat to travel a long way to get through the zone. But when he gets his arms extended, he can hit the ball out of the park to all fields. At Double-A Corpus Christi in 2013, 11 of his 25 home runs went to right or center field.
The Future: Ready for Triple-A and added to the 40-man roster, Santana is ahead of schedule, but he needs further refinement before he’s ready to be a power threat in the middle of the Astros’ lineup.
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Yankees
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BP Dodgers Top 10:
Prospects on the Rise:
1. LHP Victor Gonzalez: 18-year-old Mexican lefty with a good present fastball and changeup, Gonzalez should move up prospect lists in 2014. The body could escape him, and the breaking ball doesn’t offer much projection at this point, but the low-90s fastball and quality changeup should allow him to miss bats and barrels, regardless if he starts at the short-season level or makes the jump to full-season ball.
Prospects on the Rise:
1. LHP Victor Gonzalez: 18-year-old Mexican lefty with a good present fastball and changeup, Gonzalez should move up prospect lists in 2014. The body could escape him, and the breaking ball doesn’t offer much projection at this point, but the low-90s fastball and quality changeup should allow him to miss bats and barrels, regardless if he starts at the short-season level or makes the jump to full-season ball.
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Yankees
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BP Cubs Top 10:
3. Albert Almora
The Tools: 6+ potential hit; 6 potential power; 5+ arm; 6+ potential glove
What Happened in 2013: Assorted injuries limited his full-season debut to 61 games, but the former sixth overall selection in the 2012 draft returned to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he managed to hit over .300 despite being the second youngest player in the league.
Strengths: High level baseball skills and instincts; natural bat-to-ball ability; can make hard contact to all fields; hit tool projects to be plus (or better) tracks well and shows advanced approach; has above-average raw power; swing more gap-to-gap at present but over-the-fence power could show up as he matures; glove in center is easy plus; quick reactions and proper reads help range; arm is solid-average to plus; cocky/confident player.
Weaknesses: Concerns about durability; game power is several grades away from projection; speed is fringe-average at present; range dependent on crisp reads/routes; body development could drag speed below average and limit major-league quality range.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; first-division/all-star
Realistic Role: High 5; above-average player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to achieve Double-A level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The big separator as to whether Almora will be a very good fantasy outfielder or just a guy whose real life value doesn’t line up with his fantasy value will depend on his power. He could be a near .300 hitter, but with middling stolen base potential, he’ll have to hit 20 homers to reach the type of fantasy heights that being ranked third on a very strong Cubs list would indicate.
The Year Ahead: Almora is a highly skilled all-around player, with an impact hit tool and the ability to play above-average defense in center. While he lacks graphic tools or middle-of-the-lineup power, the 19-year-old has that rare ability to make the game look easy, both in the field and at the plate. The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level, and even with his advanced feel for the game and instincts, his range is center will be limited by the lack of wheels; despite his quick reactions and almost preternatural feel for tracking balls, his foot speed can’t recover from mistakes like most athletes at the position. Almora is going to hit at every stop, and if he can avoid the injury bug in 2014, he should be able to move quickly, reaching the Double-A level and positioning himself for a major-league opportunity in 2015.
Major league ETA: 2015
6. Arismendy Alcantara
The Tools: 6+ run; 6 arm; 5+ potential glove; 5+ potential hit; 5+ potential power
What Happened in 2013: Slow and steady up the ladder, Alcantara arrived at the Double-A level as a 21-year-old and set career highs in games played, home runs, and stolen bases.
Strengths: Plus athlete with good present strength; excellent hands; creates plus bat speed and above-average power; short, clean path to the ball; makes hard contact; easy plus run; multi-dimensional offensive threat; plus arm; above-average glove at second; five-tool talent.
Weaknesses: Swing from the right side lacks the same punch; contact is softer; some swing-and-miss in his game; right-side defensive profile (glove); hit tool might only play as average.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; Double-A experience; needs refinement at the plate/in the field.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: A five-tool middle infielder with 30-steal potential? Sign me up please. The best part about Alcantara for fantasy, is that even if the power potential doesn’t come through and he’s more of a 10 homer guy, he’s still a potential top-10 shortstop or second baseman. That puts his realistic floor around Jose Altuve type value. It also puts his ceiling closer to Jason Kipnis. There’s risk, but lots of fantasy potential here.
The Year Ahead: Alcantara would receive more attention in a weaker system, as the 22-year-old infielder has impact tools and could develop into a first-division talent at the major-league level. From the left side, Alcantara is an offensive threat, with bat speed and game power, but he struggles from his weaker right side, as the plane is flatter and the contact not nearly as hard. The speed is a weapon on base and in the field, and with more refinement should give him another above-average tool. A heavy dose of Triple-A secondary stuff will help the five-tool talent refine at the plate, and with any luck, Alcantara could get a major-league taste in 2014. While I’m not a big fan of comps, especially if they are forced, the industry suggested Jose Reyes-lite fits Alcantara very well.
Major league ETA: 2014
3. Albert Almora
The Tools: 6+ potential hit; 6 potential power; 5+ arm; 6+ potential glove
What Happened in 2013: Assorted injuries limited his full-season debut to 61 games, but the former sixth overall selection in the 2012 draft returned to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he managed to hit over .300 despite being the second youngest player in the league.
Strengths: High level baseball skills and instincts; natural bat-to-ball ability; can make hard contact to all fields; hit tool projects to be plus (or better) tracks well and shows advanced approach; has above-average raw power; swing more gap-to-gap at present but over-the-fence power could show up as he matures; glove in center is easy plus; quick reactions and proper reads help range; arm is solid-average to plus; cocky/confident player.
Weaknesses: Concerns about durability; game power is several grades away from projection; speed is fringe-average at present; range dependent on crisp reads/routes; body development could drag speed below average and limit major-league quality range.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; first-division/all-star
Realistic Role: High 5; above-average player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to achieve Double-A level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The big separator as to whether Almora will be a very good fantasy outfielder or just a guy whose real life value doesn’t line up with his fantasy value will depend on his power. He could be a near .300 hitter, but with middling stolen base potential, he’ll have to hit 20 homers to reach the type of fantasy heights that being ranked third on a very strong Cubs list would indicate.
The Year Ahead: Almora is a highly skilled all-around player, with an impact hit tool and the ability to play above-average defense in center. While he lacks graphic tools or middle-of-the-lineup power, the 19-year-old has that rare ability to make the game look easy, both in the field and at the plate. The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level, and even with his advanced feel for the game and instincts, his range is center will be limited by the lack of wheels; despite his quick reactions and almost preternatural feel for tracking balls, his foot speed can’t recover from mistakes like most athletes at the position. Almora is going to hit at every stop, and if he can avoid the injury bug in 2014, he should be able to move quickly, reaching the Double-A level and positioning himself for a major-league opportunity in 2015.
Major league ETA: 2015
6. Arismendy Alcantara
The Tools: 6+ run; 6 arm; 5+ potential glove; 5+ potential hit; 5+ potential power
What Happened in 2013: Slow and steady up the ladder, Alcantara arrived at the Double-A level as a 21-year-old and set career highs in games played, home runs, and stolen bases.
Strengths: Plus athlete with good present strength; excellent hands; creates plus bat speed and above-average power; short, clean path to the ball; makes hard contact; easy plus run; multi-dimensional offensive threat; plus arm; above-average glove at second; five-tool talent.
Weaknesses: Swing from the right side lacks the same punch; contact is softer; some swing-and-miss in his game; right-side defensive profile (glove); hit tool might only play as average.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; Double-A experience; needs refinement at the plate/in the field.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: A five-tool middle infielder with 30-steal potential? Sign me up please. The best part about Alcantara for fantasy, is that even if the power potential doesn’t come through and he’s more of a 10 homer guy, he’s still a potential top-10 shortstop or second baseman. That puts his realistic floor around Jose Altuve type value. It also puts his ceiling closer to Jason Kipnis. There’s risk, but lots of fantasy potential here.
The Year Ahead: Alcantara would receive more attention in a weaker system, as the 22-year-old infielder has impact tools and could develop into a first-division talent at the major-league level. From the left side, Alcantara is an offensive threat, with bat speed and game power, but he struggles from his weaker right side, as the plane is flatter and the contact not nearly as hard. The speed is a weapon on base and in the field, and with more refinement should give him another above-average tool. A heavy dose of Triple-A secondary stuff will help the five-tool talent refine at the plate, and with any luck, Alcantara could get a major-league taste in 2014. While I’m not a big fan of comps, especially if they are forced, the industry suggested Jose Reyes-lite fits Alcantara very well.
Major league ETA: 2014
