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Nationals trades Dilson Herrera, Chase Anderson, Jorge 12-Mateo, Derek 14-Fisher, to Mets for Daniel Nava, Jose Quintana, A.J. Ramos, Pirates Draft Pick 3,

The talent going back here is something I'm sure I'll regret in 3-4 years. Herrera and Mateo have the makings of a dynamic up the middle combination, offensively and defensively. Fisher is also a dynamic COF talent who will probably find his way on to a few Top 100 lists this year. Chase Anderson is a decent starting pitcher, who'll play up with a good defense in front of him.

The draft pick is the best I'll have in the upcoming draft. Based off previous years, Nava will be a useful outfield piece for the coming season...but probably not after that. A.J. Ramos will tag team with Grimm to form a very strong back of the bullpen. His presence takes the bullpen from deep to deep and strong. The get here, for me, was clearly Quintana. He's a young starter (26) with great results, and still has UNDERperformed against his peripherals. He'll join up with Matz and Wheeler to provide an incredibly strong top of the Nats rotation for the coming season.
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Nationals trades Lewis Thorpe, Pirates Draft Pick 3, to Indians for Pedro Baez, Indians Draft Pick 5,

Lewis Thorpe is a very nice young prospect who continued to move up the prospect ranks until he ran into TJ this past year. He's a tall lefty with good stuff. It will be interesting to figure out his ultimate role. He could be anything from a #2 starter to a situational lefty. He's a terrific lottery ticket. The pick is not a huge swap, essentially amounts to one round.

As much as moving Thorpe hurt, I'm really excited to be bringing Baez into the fold. A converted infielder, Baez has a rocket arm and a filthy breaking pitch. He's shot through the minors since the conversion, and was almost unhittable for the Dodgers this year until a rough patch in early September. He finished the season strong and looks to be a very good long-term investment for the back of my bullpen.
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Cardinals trades Mark Lowe, Jesse Chavez, to Nationals for Rob Refsnyder, Leonardo 13-Molina,

While I've done a pretty good job of trading for established, good players who will be making an impact for my team for years to come...this trade was done strictly to compete sooner. Refsnyder is going to hit and is going to be a solid 2b if he continues his development. He could easily play to a 3-4 win player. Molina is very much a boom or bust prospect, whose overall profile was not helped by the 2015 season...but the ceiling remains incredibly high.

Lowe is the lesser of the player coming back, but would appear to be my 7th inning arm at the moment. He's not dynamic, but he will absolutely get you three outs. Chavez was the prize piece of this deal to me, though. With Wheeler out to start the season, and Bolsinger more ideal as a long man, Chavez slots in as my #3-4 to start the season...my #4 or 5 once the season is rolling. He offers solid depth, and though he had a bit of a down year, advanced analytics were FAR kinder to him than his ultimate result. This pushes Charlie Morton off guaranteed starts for injury to emergency starter...and that's just the role for him at this point. Overall, my team strongly improved the back end of the 2015 roster today...but we'll miss Refsnyder sooner, and Molina potentially later.
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Nationals trades Aaron Altherr, Kelby Tomlinson, Nick Martinez, Ben Paulsen, to WhiteSox for Hector Santiago, WhiteSox Draft Pick 5,

I've asked Jim about Santiago a couple times, so it came down to putting together a really strong package to get him. Altherr is the player I think I'll miss the most. He was always a prospect to watch, and he broke out in a huge way in 2015. He is a strong defender across the OF, as well as having good hitting ability, and some thunder in the stick. Tomlinson had a fantastic 2015 across both AAA & MLB, features versatility in the IF, and should hit for average. Ben Paulsen is a good 1b option who may never start, but can hit a little. Martinez seems to outperform his peripherals, but is walking a dangerous line there. He's only 24, so there's still time.

The challenge for me, was that none of the above would, given health, probably be on my 25 man roster, and Santiago should pitch in the rotation...especially while Wheeler recovers. Santiago saw all of his peripherals improve in 2015 (H/9 down, BB/9 down, K/9 up). The problem was that he saw his home runs go up. Like, a lot up. Santiago has always outpitched his peripherals, and with all the secondaries trending in the right direction, and with Andrelton Simmons coming into the fold, there's a good bet the 27-year old remains a middle of the rotation starter for years to come.
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Athletics trades Micah Johnson, Rockies Draft Pick 3, to Nationals for Michael 14-Chavis,

Chavis is a nice young talent who's proven he can pick it and pop it. He just, unfortunately, has proved that it won't be at SS and he may not be able to hit it. You tend to have patience with players who have 20-25 hr upside on the IF, so he'll be afforded every opportunity, but 2015 wasn't a feather in his cap.

Back I get a decent 3rd rounder to get in the ballpark of a 1st round talent, and Johnson. Johnson is a player who had a terrific season at AAA before holding his own with the bat at the MLB level, but falling flat with his glove. He's, historically, been a decent fielder, so I'm not willing to give up there, but he'll add obp and speed to my bench in 2015, which makes him a good play short term. He has also has gone almost .850 ops/30 sb's at the AAA level, which makes him an interesting play long term. Felt like a trade where I mitigated risk short term, and provided some upside options...albeit at the risk of a future Chase Utley at his full potential.
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Nationals trades WhiteSox Draft Pick 5, Indians Draft Pick 5, to Phillies for Cesar Hernandez,

Not too complicated. Nick got two picks to help his roster crunch, I picked up a versatile, decent obp, decent speed piece for my bench. Won't win anyone a championship, but should help both squads.
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Nationals trades Felix 11-Jorge, to Royals for Angels Draft Pick 5,

Boom.
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Athletics trades Raul Mondesi Jr., Steven Souza, Chris Bassitt, to Nationals for Zack Wheeler, Cy 14-Sneed, Ryan 15-Mountcastle,

Sneed is a nice young arm who would seem to be a back end guy at best. Mountcastle has some serious upside, but it's most likely at 3b. Wheeler is the guy I lose here. His age 23/24 seasons were very MOR, and he has TOR upside. He is coming off TJ, not due back until July, and didn't really have great command to begin with. If he makes it all the way back, this is a very good deal for Nils.

Bassit is a back end arm with some years of MOR upside. He got a decent SIM and is playing in a good park for his abilities. I really like Souza. He has big time pop, good patience, and positional versatility. The challenge will be adjusting back to a league that figured him out in his 2nd go. Mondesi was a big get for me. As much as I like Ahmed, his offensive upside is really limited. Mondesi has plus offensive upside, game-changing speed, and is a spectacular fielder. At his absolute worst, he is Ahmed, but could end up being a multiple time all-star without a ton of projection. I was looking for a top SS prospect for Wheeler...and I got it.
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Nationals trades Tony Kemp, to Reds for Phillip 13-Ervin,

This is what happens when you spend four days at home in the month of January. On top of completely fucking up two of my picks, I completely missed one of my favorite under-the-radar prospects come available. I desperately wanted Ervin in the '13 draft, and still believe in his upside. He has a tantalizing power/patience combination, and continues to see action at both LF & CF. It's easy to forget that this guy is still only 22.

That said, I paid to get him. While Kemp may never be an All-Star, he'll find his way onto an MLB roster at worst, and into a starting lineup at best. He's just a pretty damn solid player. This is what happens when life gets in the way of your hobby, to quote Ken.
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Nationals trades Jackie Bradley, Raul Mondesi Jr., Tim Cooney, to Mets for J.R. Murphy, Kevin Kiermaier,

While no names on this list should blow people away, there was a lot of talent sent back and forth here. Mondesi is a divisive prospect. Not in a boom or bust way, but more, is he a good player or all-star. He and Mateo give John a ton of options. Bradley is a player who's establishing himself, has a versatile glove, and has crushed AAA. Cooney is probably never going to be a #2 starter, but he's a lock for a back-end arm, and will probably have a few years as a mid-rotation. As a young player, he's due for a lot of really good innings.

Murphy was an interesting risk here as the 2nd player in the deal. He looks to have the inside track on the starting job in Minnesota, and hit very well in short spurts with the Yankees. His defense is improving, not great, and he will have a chance to be exposed over more playing time, but he, Realmuto, and McKenry is a very good three-prong catcher attack. The get for me here was Kiermaier, who I traded away as a throw in a few years ago. He was expensive to get back...but he's a hell of a player. He's a brilliant outfielder who'll break the SIM with a +20 in CF, as well as an above average hitter with some pop and speed. This makes an outfield defense of Marte/Kiermaier/Inciarte just outstanding, puts all in a more natural spot, with all having a chance to continue developing. Pretty scary for any opposition fly balls.
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Rockies trades Keone Kela, Nolan 15-Watson, to Nationals for Gerardo Parra, Phillip 13-Ervin,

My first completed face-to-face trade with Nate on a really fun night in Denver...though that entire sentence is almost all redundant.

Parra is a really terrific baseball player who fields and hits. Moving to Colorado will be a big boon to both his SIM and his real life stats, especially with that lineup protection. I'm a HUGE Ervin guy, one of the bigger around. I think the dude will just hit once he has another full year of health and development.

I was looking for a third power arm for my pen behind Grimm and Ramos, and had been after Nate for Kela for a while. He's young, has a very big weapon in the fastball, and had a great rookie season in Texas. Now, the league could very well adjust to Kela, so 2016 will be a telling season. Watson is a sandwich pick with mid-rotation upside, who'll probably be a back-end starter, if he makes it. Having him as my 10th draftee allows me to move McMurray into the pen if injuries hit.
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Athletics trades Justin Nicolino, to Nationals for Joshua 14-Morgan,

Nils has been after Josh Morgan for a little while. Morgan is an intriguing patience-first player. As an infielder, he has a pretty medium floor, low ceiling. That said, he's being tried out as a catcher, which could really flip the conversation on his prospect status if he sticks.

Nicolino is an incredibly unsexy pitcher in that he strikes no one out. Like, almost literally no one. That said, he has a long history of getting people out, including a halfway decent turn in the Marlins rotation last year. Only 24, Nicolino has already been sent back to MiLB camp, but, after another solid spring, you can readily assume he's up the first injury. He profiles as a #4 in his best years, but provides me good, young starting pitching depth, given my current placeholders are Jesse Chavez and Charlie Morton.
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Nationals trades Steven Souza, Williams Perez, Nolan 15-Watson, to Reds for Jason Hammel, Jabari Blash,

Watson is a high-ceiling, low-floor prospect who is a long ways off...but is good value. Perez is a 5th starter ceiling, but can certainly eat innings there. Souza is the big loss here. He can play defense, he has pop, and is just a solid baseball player.

While Blash has never really found success at the MLB level, he has a solid SIM, and is hitting with pop at the AAA level...again. Hammel was the get for me. He is on his 3rd consecutive very strong year, and, barring disaster, will slot behind Matz/Quintana for at least one-two years...a value far beyond what Souza would provide for me.
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Nationals trades Jacob 15-Nix, to Athletics for Derek Law,

Nix is a really nice arm who profiles as a #4 starter, with upside who will also be supported by the park in San Diego. He's having a decent campaign at LA, but he's really young, so is probably 3-4 years from having a significant impact.

Law is a player who had a dominant MiLB career as a reliever before struggling with some inconsistencies and injuries in his first run out at the higher levels last year. He did show enough to get a straight shot at the MLB this year, and has not disappointed. He's probably not a closer, but a strong 7th/8th inning arm to go alongside Kela, Grimm, Barraclough, Dull, and Baez ahead of Ramos.
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Nationals trades Travis 13-Demeritte, to Reds for Xavier Cedeno,

Concluding my 'prospects for relievers' run, Demeritte has put himself firmly back on the prospect map with a terrific 2016. He has good raw power, has shown to take a walk this year, and is a solid fielder at 2b...but k's at a terrifying rate. I also have that player in Schoop, who's having a year at the MLB level.

Chasen Shreve has not proven to get out MLB hitters with consistency, and, for some reason, the Mets don't want to bring up Josh Edgin, so my pen is bereft of lefties who'll make an impact next year. While Cedeno's 3.86 era is not awe-inspiring, all his secondary numbers indicate he's one of the best lefty relievers in the league. He'll help shore up my bullpen in 2016, and should fit into the back of my pen next year as the lefty option to set up Ramos.
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Nationals trades Derek Law, Nationals Draft Pick 2, to Athletics for Justin Smoak,

So, this is an overpay. I've been trying to get someone who can stand at 1b for next year, and this was the best I could find...but Nils makes out well. Even though it's not a great draft, a pick at 50ish has legitimate value, as does an above average reliever with the upside for more.

For me, with Teix and Moreland struggling, I needed to find someone to stand at 1b next year. Smoak can hit a little, get on base a little, has some pop, and can stand at 1b. It's not sexy, but, as a #7 hitter for me next year (Villar/Realmuto/Marte/Arenado/Schoop/Kiermaier/Smoak/RF), it will absolutely do the job.
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Nationals trades Ender Inciarte, Nationals Draft Pick 1, to Twins for Kyle Hendricks, Twins Draft Pick 4,

It's always a tough decision to move a #1 pick, and a 24 year old off a 5 win season one year ago separately...they went in here together, so I better be getting something solid back. The pick should be 15-22ish, and Inciarte, though having a really though year, is a great candidate for a bounce back next year. He had an injury start this year, and is on a terrible team, but has played better since the break...and can definitely play.

Getting the 4th back was good to keep pick integrity for me, but Hendricks was clearly the get. He's having a terrific year, where he's outperforming his secondaries, BUT, even with the secondaries, he's still a legit #3, borderline #2. The rotation of Matz/Hendricks/Quintana/Hammel/Bassit or Santiago, with my defense, will be outstanding for next year.
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Pirates trades Pirates Draft Pick 3, to Nationals for Justin Grimm,

Nationals trades Nationals Draft Pick 3, to Athletics for Matt Szczur,

Nationals trades Mike Bolsinger, Pirates Draft Pick 3, to Phillies for Brett Eibner, Phillies Draft Pick 5,


None of these moves are earth-shattering by any means, so let's just lump them together, shall we?

Grimm has had a really tough year on the MLB field, but his SIM is excellent, so he'll be a tremendous asset to JP down the stretch. Bolsinger was a more tough move personally because he's been so good for me in the SIM, but I have significant SP depth for next year.

Whenever I think about dealing picks, I always ask the question, 'Would I be happy if the player turned into the pick return?' In the case of Eibner and Szczur, I would for the picks dealt. Neither are superstars, but both can play a need position for me (RF), are versatile, get on base, and, in the case of Eibner, hit with some pop. While hurting my '16, these moves help cement my '17.
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Phillies trades Steve Pearce, Robbie Grossman, Zach Eflin, to Nationals for A.J. Ramos, Keone Kela, Twins Draft Pick 4,

Going out the door for me is one legitimate closer and one future closer. Ramos is one of the top relievers in baseball and Kela is a future stud closer. There's no question that these guys will be missed...and will probably announce the end of a strong WC opportunity for me.

That said, I'm deep in the bullpen with Dull/Baez/Barraclough/Cedeno on board to close games for me next year. This was an opportunity to trade from depth to fill some holes on my 2017 team. Pearce immediately upgrades my offense and defense at 1b for 2017, while also being eligible at 2b/3b next year, too. Grossman is a player I have long liked who's still only 26 and will be a very legitimate candidate for my RF opening next year. Eflin is only 22, dominant at AAA, and holding his own at the MLB level. He does not feature front of the rotation stuff, but he should be a very legitimate #3-5 starter for a long time...and with a young staff featuring Matz/Quintana/Hendricks, that is a big addition for the long haul.
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Rockies trades Jeanmar Gomez, Rockies Draft Pick 5, to Nationals for Jake 15-Cronenworth, Nationals Draft Pick 4,

Cronenworth is an intriguing prospect. After a torrid start in LA, Jake has found HA more challenging. He's not considered a top prospect, but he is staying at short for now, can take a walk, and makes contact. That will always be interesting. I'll also drop about 20 spots in the draft here.

After moving Ramos and Kela, Gomez isn't as sexy a replacement, but he's close to as effective. His ERA has been high 2's to low 3's since moving from starter to reliever four years ago, while his FIP's have been closer to mid-3's. He'll work with Dull, Baez, and Barraclough to form an incredibly deep set of RH relievers.
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Nationals trades Mark Teixeira, Hector Santiago, Cardinals Draft Pick 4, to Cardinals for Daniel Palka, Beau 15-Burrows, Yankees Draft Pick 4,

Well this will probably signal the end of my wild card chase. Tough to move Teix, but he's an excellent replacement for Adams' injury. Santiago has never been a secondary stat favorite, but has had consistent success along the way, is still pretty young, and hopefully will find pitching in Target Field more acceptable. Aaron also gets a bump in the draft.

Even with the drop in the draft, I'm very happy with the return here...especially if it is the demise of my WC hopes. Palka has major power and patience, but strikes out an absurd amount. If he's able to find consistent contact he could be a monster. Burrows is a year removed from being drafted in the first round, has a terrific fastball, but struggles with consistency in his secondaries. He doesn't have a huge ceiling, but most project him as pretty low-risk to be a mid/back-end starter.
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Nationals trades Cesar Hernandez, Yankees Draft Pick 4, to Athletics for Tyler Skaggs, Nationals Draft Pick 3,

Being in the position of having two solid 2b's was nice for me. Hernandez' big second half and Schoop's hitting 25 homers at 24 years old were broached to me by Nils. While I very much like Hernandez as a player, I'm going to keep my future with Schoop's upside. Hernandez gets on base and can pick it pretty well at 2b, but his value drops precipitously if he's not hitting .290. It's a neat little risk for Nils.

Nils has some pitching. I would feel more comfortable with another starter. Now, Skaggs will never make me comfortable as a starter (his health), but he came back this year with stuff BETTER than before his TJ. His peripherals were solid outside of his walks (to be understood coming back from 2 years off) and he was utterly dominant in his run up through the minors...and is not far removed from being a top 10-15 prospect. More arm discomfort necessitated the pick flip, but this deal was both people dealing from places of strength for places of help.
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Nationals trades Tyler Skaggs, Nolan Arenado, Jonathan Schoop, Nationals Draft Pick 3, Ariel 15-Miranda, to Cardinals for Jean Segura, Jedd Gyorko, Mookie Betts, Ryan Buchter, Indians Draft Pick 5,

This could easily be argued as the biggest deal I've been involved with in the IBC. Arenado is clearly the toughest part of this deal as he is a franchise 3b with major power and an outstanding glove. Schoop plays fine D with 25 hr's and is only 24. Both Skaggs and Miranda offer interesting potential as starters, especially if Skaggs can find health. There's no doubt giving up Arenado was the toughest thing I've done...so I hope the return makes us better.

And about the return...clearly Betts was the get here. He's a dynamic outfielder who'll make the outfield of Marte, Kiermaier, and him the best in the IBC. He hits, hits for power, gets on base, and steals bases offensively..if the defense wasn't enough on it's own. Segura comes in after a monster year in Arizona, and will combine with Ahmed and Villar to cover between 2b and ss. Gyorko is a player I've always liked, who's coming off of a strong year. If Segura is the SS, Villar and Gyorko will cover 2b/3b depending on SIM's. Buchter was almost impossible to hit with a ridiculous K rate in his first full MLB season, and will slot in with Cedeno to take on lefties in my pen. This trade filled three major holes for me (2b, RF, and LF RP), while giving me back a pretty strong cover at 3b who'll play there for a while. As tough as Arenado was to trade, I believe we're a better team today.
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Tigers trades Koji Uehara, to Nationals for Sam 14-Coonrod,

Indians trades Nick Wittgren, Indians Draft Pick 4, to Nationals for Beau 15-Burrows, Indians Draft Pick 5,


While Burrows would definitely have survived the next round of cuts, Coonrod would have been on the fence despite another terrific year from him. Both Coonrod and Burrows looks like mid-rotation starters in the long run...and like pretty safe bets to hit those ceilings. That said, my rotation is flush with those types of pitchers.

The goal after the mega-deal was to add depth to the bullpen, which had been pretty front heavy, by dipping into the starter pool. Uehara is a lottery ticket. Even though he had another excellent season, he started to break down health wise. If he's willing to make less than $9 mill, I'm sure someone will have a use for his 12.1 k/9. Wittgren is a longer play. I've liked Nick for a while, and while he's not a dynamic reliever, he's been excellent throughout his MiLB career and had an excellent introduction at the MLB level. Along with Baez and Cedeno, he'll bridge the gap to Dull, Buchter, Barraclough, and, hopefully, Uehara.
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Nationals trades Indians Draft Pick 4, to Rangers for Alex Dickerson, Rangers Draft Pick 5,

Nationals trades Brendan McCurry, to Reds for Reds Draft Pick 5,


These were a couple moves to firm up the roster. McCurry will be an MLB reliever, but he was firmly on the chopping block for me, so getting a pick back for him gives me a usable commodity going forward.

I looked into Dickerson a week after he was picked up this year, and this is a price to pay for sure, but Dickerson has always been able to hit...and he was outstanding at AAA this year and pretty damn good at the MLB level. His and Grossman's versatility and offensive skills will make for excellent backups for the Marte/Kier/Betts monster.
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