Colson Montgomery's nutty last few weeks have made for a lot of postgame interviews, to the point where it feels like he has a scheduled conversation with the White Sox beat more often than not. That's just what happens when you slug .624 after the All-Star break.
"I enjoy talking to all you guys," Montgomery said. "I like talking to a lot of people. I’m curious on what you guys think...sometimes."
But after the black box that was his early-season retreat to Arizona, repeated success has provided a better window into what the 23-year-old is thinking at the plate. In Pittsburgh, Montgomery revealed that experimenting through a host of different stances and setups with hitting director Ryan Fuller eventually laid bare a straightforward takeaway: that he sees and identifies spin best the more he stays tall in the batter's box.
Maybe striking out on a low-and-away knuckle curve in his first at-bat, and then receiving four in a row from Jack Flaherty in his third helped cue Montgomery to stay with the breaker for a go-ahead two-run single Tuesday night. Or maybe he just got a bender that stayed up in the zone after the other three were pure chase pitches.
But Montgomery's progression up to this point has already driven home that not only is player development not linear, but the night might be darkest before the dawn.
As Montgomery switched to a torpedo bat after the All-Star break, Fuller theorized that pushing the meat of the barrel closer to his hands would initiate a more compact swing path subconsciously, and hopefully drive out any urge to cast his hands out and get out and around the baseball. Fresh off ripping another bullet drive into the right field seats, Montgomery indicated that finding cues to keep him compact was the first item on the checklist when he started working with Fuller in Arizona.
"It was Day 1, first thing we kind of went to," Montgomery said. "We wanted to practice trying to keep the ball kind of low to the ground, line drives and things like that. Some of my cues in the cage, I’m trying to hit a low line drive to the shortstop, keeps me tighter to the ball. Not really a normal home run swing. I feel like a lot of the hitters can tell you if they tried doing home run swings, it’s probably not going to work."
That project further serves as a possible explanation for why Montgomery has taken to the new bat so quickly. After the initial early-season furor about torpedo bats, many players who tried it but chose to stand pat cited the difference in weight distribution feeling foreign and uncomfortable. For Montgomery, it provided what he was already looking for.
“Once I got it, I felt it was pretty natural," Montgomery said. "When I had to use a normal bat, I felt like there was too much weight at the end. It kind of made me out and around and pull-happy, I guess. When I have a Torpedo in my hand, I guess, I feel tight to the ball and can let the ball track a little bit more and I can whip it to the zone faster.
"It’s a trick on your brain. If you say that you are comfortable with some bat, you are going to be comfortable with it.”
https://soxmachine.com/2025/08/colson-m ... ded-swings
2025 Padres prospects news and notes
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Spoiler alert: Heading into the weekend, Jeral Perez had been the front-runner for the next Fortnight's Finest honor on Tuesday, because he'd finally flipped the switch after a season full of fits and starts at Winston-Salem.
He came into Friday's game against Asheville hitting .387/.459/.645 with two homers, two doubles and more walks (five) than strikeouts (three) over his last nine games.
And he built upon it with his first three plate appearances on Friday, homering in his first trip ...
... and then singling his next two times up. But he attempted a steal of second after reaching in the bottom of the fourth, and ended up leaving the game due this awkward slide/fall that had him grabbing his left hip.
Perez will in all likelihood still get the nod, because that's now a .441/.500/.765 line over his last 10 games. Hopefully it doesn't come with terrible news attached.
https://soxmachine.com/2025/08/white-so ... ral_thread
He came into Friday's game against Asheville hitting .387/.459/.645 with two homers, two doubles and more walks (five) than strikeouts (three) over his last nine games.
And he built upon it with his first three plate appearances on Friday, homering in his first trip ...
... and then singling his next two times up. But he attempted a steal of second after reaching in the bottom of the fourth, and ended up leaving the game due this awkward slide/fall that had him grabbing his left hip.
Perez will in all likelihood still get the nod, because that's now a .441/.500/.765 line over his last 10 games. Hopefully it doesn't come with terrible news attached.
https://soxmachine.com/2025/08/white-so ... ral_thread
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47) Troy Melton - RHP - DET
The Good
A plus fastball and a quintet of other offerings gives Melton the versatility to be a mid-rotation starter. He has a solid feel for each of his pitches and locates them well. His splitter may be his best offering when it is all said and done.
The Bad
Melton lacks a feel for spin which leaves his breaking balls as average offerings at best.
79) Colson Montgomery - SS - CWS
The Good
Elite bat speed and plus defense are an excellent foundation for any SS prospect.
The Bad
His combination of chase and putrid contact rates (particularly outside the zone) will likely prevent Montgomery from being a consistent force.
97) Marco Dinges - C - MIL
The Good
Dinges has an ideal upward swing plane to make the most of his plus bat speed. He consistently hits the ball hard and fortifies his profile with smart swing decisions. He continues to look the part behind the plate and has posted elite pop times.
The Bad
The contact rates greatly suffer against secondaries, and he will likely have negligible speed.
Honourable Mentions:
Advanced Sluggers:
Jacob Reimer – NYM – 3B
Jacob Melton – HOU – OF
https://tjstats.ca/p/mlb-top-100-prospe ... dium=email
The Good
A plus fastball and a quintet of other offerings gives Melton the versatility to be a mid-rotation starter. He has a solid feel for each of his pitches and locates them well. His splitter may be his best offering when it is all said and done.
The Bad
Melton lacks a feel for spin which leaves his breaking balls as average offerings at best.
79) Colson Montgomery - SS - CWS
The Good
Elite bat speed and plus defense are an excellent foundation for any SS prospect.
The Bad
His combination of chase and putrid contact rates (particularly outside the zone) will likely prevent Montgomery from being a consistent force.
97) Marco Dinges - C - MIL
The Good
Dinges has an ideal upward swing plane to make the most of his plus bat speed. He consistently hits the ball hard and fortifies his profile with smart swing decisions. He continues to look the part behind the plate and has posted elite pop times.
The Bad
The contact rates greatly suffer against secondaries, and he will likely have negligible speed.
Honourable Mentions:
Advanced Sluggers:
Jacob Reimer – NYM – 3B
Jacob Melton – HOU – OF
https://tjstats.ca/p/mlb-top-100-prospe ... dium=email
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High-A
Hot
Jeral Perez, 3B, Chicago White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem): .429 (15-35), 8 R, 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K, SB.
Season Stats (High-A): .240/.311/.444, 19 HR, 9 SB.
A key prospect in the deal that shipped Michael Kopech to the Dodgers, Perez looked like he might be stalling out in High-A earlier in the season, showing pop but lacking consistency at the plate. The bat came alive during the second half, with Perez turning into the Sally League’s hottest hitter during the month of August. There is some natural contact ability and plus raw power in the profile, but Perez will need to continue to improve the quality of contact if he’s to carve out a future role in the White Sox lineup.
Complex
Not
Wilfri De La Cruz, SS, Baltimore Orioles (Rookie DSL Orioles Orange): .176 (3-17), 3 R, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 4 K, 2 SB.
Season Stats (Rookie): .265/.463/.410, 0 HR, 13 SB.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... he-majors/
Hot
Jeral Perez, 3B, Chicago White Sox (High-A Winston-Salem): .429 (15-35), 8 R, 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K, SB.
Season Stats (High-A): .240/.311/.444, 19 HR, 9 SB.
A key prospect in the deal that shipped Michael Kopech to the Dodgers, Perez looked like he might be stalling out in High-A earlier in the season, showing pop but lacking consistency at the plate. The bat came alive during the second half, with Perez turning into the Sally League’s hottest hitter during the month of August. There is some natural contact ability and plus raw power in the profile, but Perez will need to continue to improve the quality of contact if he’s to carve out a future role in the White Sox lineup.
Complex
Not
Wilfri De La Cruz, SS, Baltimore Orioles (Rookie DSL Orioles Orange): .176 (3-17), 3 R, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 4 K, 2 SB.
Season Stats (Rookie): .265/.463/.410, 0 HR, 13 SB.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... he-majors/
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Jacob Melton | HOU OF
Melton shows up as the Astros top prospect, but failed to make the top 100. That sounds like a problem for the Astros system in general if they don’t even have anyone in that top 100! With 65/65 Raw Power and 55/5 Speed scouting grades, I’m already curious if he could potentially provide a nice power/speed mix.
Recalled last week on Monday, Melton has started five of seven games in center field, with one of those two non-starts coming against a left-handed starter. As a lefty, he’ll likely serve on the strong side of a platoon. Injury has limited him to just 104 Triple-A PAs this season, but he did record 443 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
Last year, he showed some power with a .173 ISO, but even more speed with 30 steals to just four caught stealings. This year in a much smaller sample size, he pushed his walk rate to a career best at Triple-A, while reducing his SwStk% into single digits for the first time. That’s a real nice pair of improvements. He also posted another 113+ maxEV, mid-double digit HR/FB rate, and an ISO that jumped above .200. His steals pace was a bit off, with just six, but a full season would have netted him around 18 home runs and 36 steals, which is intriguing.
The projection systems think he’ll kill your average, but he doesn’t whiff or strikeout too frequently, so it’s not a given. I also wouldn’t worry too much about batting average over the small sample that is the rest of the season. Go speculate here for a touch of power and some speed.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/speculate ... t-callups/
Kyle Karros | COL 3B
Wait, the Rockies recalled a prospect and are actually playing him regularly?! Wait, no, Karros just sat yesterday so Orlando Arcia could start. Rockies gonna Rockie. Eric Karros’ son was actually ranked just 16th amongst Rockies prospects this year and even more surprising is he made his debut this season despite us slapping him with an ETA of 2027! So he blew past his promotion expectation. Like Beavers, his scouting grades do not look like one of an appealing fantasy option. But hey, I’m always interested in any prospect that gets regular at-bats with the Rockies, as Coors Field could make mediocre prospects look good.
Between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Karros displayed excellent plate discipline, with a double digit walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. It’s a continuation of strong discipline, which should boost his value in OBP leagues.
Like Beavers, he also posted a pristine batted ball profile, though it was tilted more toward grounders than fly balls. Karros was able to find more holes than Beavers, as he posted a .364 BABIP and has enjoyed a history of inflated BABIP marks. The good news is that Coors Field inflates BABIP, so he could continue to be a BABIP monster, which should translate to both batting average and OBP.
You might assume that a corner infielder who is the son of Eric Karros, a player with 284 career home runs, including five 30-homer seasons, would own some serious power potential. You would be wrong. He posted just a 9.7% HR/FB rate in the minors this year and was at just 12.9% at High-A last year. He did post a 40% HardHit%, which is actually slightly higher than Beavers, but with a maxEV of only 108 MPH. It would be hard to hit a lot of homers with such a mediocre maxEV, unless he was quite adept at hitting barrels.
Since he also hasn’t been much of a fly ball guy, he hit just six home runs this year, which paced for around 12ish. That’s now what you would expect from a corner guy, but his size and plate discipline suggest to me that a power spike could eventually be in his future.
Instead of power, Karros actually owns speed. He stole one more base than he hit home runs, so he could be the rare third baseman reaching double digit home runs and steals. Overall, it actually makes him sneakily valuable if you remember his batting average could be a positive as well. The stats delivered might differ from what you would expect from a third baseman, but there is total value here assuming he doesn’t continue to get benched for Arcia.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mclean-ba ... our-oh-my/
Melton shows up as the Astros top prospect, but failed to make the top 100. That sounds like a problem for the Astros system in general if they don’t even have anyone in that top 100! With 65/65 Raw Power and 55/5 Speed scouting grades, I’m already curious if he could potentially provide a nice power/speed mix.
Recalled last week on Monday, Melton has started five of seven games in center field, with one of those two non-starts coming against a left-handed starter. As a lefty, he’ll likely serve on the strong side of a platoon. Injury has limited him to just 104 Triple-A PAs this season, but he did record 443 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
Last year, he showed some power with a .173 ISO, but even more speed with 30 steals to just four caught stealings. This year in a much smaller sample size, he pushed his walk rate to a career best at Triple-A, while reducing his SwStk% into single digits for the first time. That’s a real nice pair of improvements. He also posted another 113+ maxEV, mid-double digit HR/FB rate, and an ISO that jumped above .200. His steals pace was a bit off, with just six, but a full season would have netted him around 18 home runs and 36 steals, which is intriguing.
The projection systems think he’ll kill your average, but he doesn’t whiff or strikeout too frequently, so it’s not a given. I also wouldn’t worry too much about batting average over the small sample that is the rest of the season. Go speculate here for a touch of power and some speed.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/speculate ... t-callups/
Kyle Karros | COL 3B
Wait, the Rockies recalled a prospect and are actually playing him regularly?! Wait, no, Karros just sat yesterday so Orlando Arcia could start. Rockies gonna Rockie. Eric Karros’ son was actually ranked just 16th amongst Rockies prospects this year and even more surprising is he made his debut this season despite us slapping him with an ETA of 2027! So he blew past his promotion expectation. Like Beavers, his scouting grades do not look like one of an appealing fantasy option. But hey, I’m always interested in any prospect that gets regular at-bats with the Rockies, as Coors Field could make mediocre prospects look good.
Between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Karros displayed excellent plate discipline, with a double digit walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. It’s a continuation of strong discipline, which should boost his value in OBP leagues.
Like Beavers, he also posted a pristine batted ball profile, though it was tilted more toward grounders than fly balls. Karros was able to find more holes than Beavers, as he posted a .364 BABIP and has enjoyed a history of inflated BABIP marks. The good news is that Coors Field inflates BABIP, so he could continue to be a BABIP monster, which should translate to both batting average and OBP.
You might assume that a corner infielder who is the son of Eric Karros, a player with 284 career home runs, including five 30-homer seasons, would own some serious power potential. You would be wrong. He posted just a 9.7% HR/FB rate in the minors this year and was at just 12.9% at High-A last year. He did post a 40% HardHit%, which is actually slightly higher than Beavers, but with a maxEV of only 108 MPH. It would be hard to hit a lot of homers with such a mediocre maxEV, unless he was quite adept at hitting barrels.
Since he also hasn’t been much of a fly ball guy, he hit just six home runs this year, which paced for around 12ish. That’s now what you would expect from a corner guy, but his size and plate discipline suggest to me that a power spike could eventually be in his future.
Instead of power, Karros actually owns speed. He stole one more base than he hit home runs, so he could be the rare third baseman reaching double digit home runs and steals. Overall, it actually makes him sneakily valuable if you remember his batting average could be a positive as well. The stats delivered might differ from what you would expect from a third baseman, but there is total value here assuming he doesn’t continue to get benched for Arcia.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mclean-ba ... our-oh-my/
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11. Jacob Reimer, 3B, Mets
Team: Double-A Binghamton (Eastern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: .471/.571/1.059 (8-for-17) 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1 SB
The Scoop: It’s easy to think that the Binghamton club was gutted by the promotions of Jett Williams, Cason Benge and Jonah Tong to Triple-A, but thanks to hitters like Reimer and the arrival of A.J. Ewing, the Rumble Ponies keep rolling along and are now 78-40. Reimer is hitting .308/.410/.569 this month while bouncing between first and third base. Binghamton needed a big bat to take over when Benge left for Syracuse. Reimer is doing a very solid impression so far. (JJ)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... cf60d89619
Team: Double-A Binghamton (Eastern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: .471/.571/1.059 (8-for-17) 4 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1 SB
The Scoop: It’s easy to think that the Binghamton club was gutted by the promotions of Jett Williams, Cason Benge and Jonah Tong to Triple-A, but thanks to hitters like Reimer and the arrival of A.J. Ewing, the Rumble Ponies keep rolling along and are now 78-40. Reimer is hitting .308/.410/.569 this month while bouncing between first and third base. Binghamton needed a big bat to take over when Benge left for Syracuse. Reimer is doing a very solid impression so far. (JJ)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... cf60d89619
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Jacob Reimer, 3B, New York Mets, 21, AA
Reimer started the year as hot as any prospect in High-A Brooklyn, but jumped off the bandwagon quickly as he was just okay to start his Double-A career. Blasting a home run and triple on Sunday, Reimer now has four home runs and eight extra-base hits in his last ten games.
Reimer has always had good contact skills and approach. He has run a contact rate at 78 percent or higher in every season of his career to this point. He has a strong 6’0” frame and has always had respectable exit velocities. This year, the exit velocities have taken a jump, as have the launch angles, leading to 16 home runs.
The ground ball rate has improved by 13 percentage points this year, and Reimer is pulling 50 percent of batted balls. The breakout is legit as Reimer has sustained success all season and has an .874 OPS with 48 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases.
https://www.google.com/url?q=https://el ... r2xZB7jytO
Reimer started the year as hot as any prospect in High-A Brooklyn, but jumped off the bandwagon quickly as he was just okay to start his Double-A career. Blasting a home run and triple on Sunday, Reimer now has four home runs and eight extra-base hits in his last ten games.
Reimer has always had good contact skills and approach. He has run a contact rate at 78 percent or higher in every season of his career to this point. He has a strong 6’0” frame and has always had respectable exit velocities. This year, the exit velocities have taken a jump, as have the launch angles, leading to 16 home runs.
The ground ball rate has improved by 13 percentage points this year, and Reimer is pulling 50 percent of batted balls. The breakout is legit as Reimer has sustained success all season and has an .874 OPS with 48 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases.
https://www.google.com/url?q=https://el ... r2xZB7jytO
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You can call Brooks Baldwin a lot of things -- left fielder, third baseman, Riley -- but he's not a conformist. He's returned from Triple-A Charlotte committed to sit deeper in his crouch, and is finishing off the best offensive month of his big league career (.305/.359/.542 in 20 games). Moreover, he opened the season trying a taller setup as he worked to stave off last year's issues with pulling off the ball, and found it didn't fit for him.
Baldwin in April
Baldwin in August
"I went back to something very similar to what I had always done; very similar to what I did in high school and basically what I did in college, something I'm more comfortable with," Baldwin said of his deeper crouch. "For me, it keeps my head a little bit more still. I'm still able to use my length on the upper half, but still stay connected to the ground and use my legs a little bit more."
Baldwin says it feels like the new setup makes him better suited to resist efforts to get him to expand on pitches above the strike zone, but the data makes it more of a feeling. Due to his essential nature, Baldwin being comfortable at the plate usually involves more swinging. His chase rate since being recalled at the start of July would be a top-10 mark in the sport (and it's only been higher in August), but his contact rate is up too.
Absent traditional indicators of better swing decisions, Baldwin argues that simply seeing the ball more clearly is making him better positioned to make things happen. His exit velocity (91.1 mph, up from 89.
, barrel rate (13.9 percent, up from 6.3), hard-hit rate (44.4 percent, up from 38.5) and even average launch angle (20.4 degrees, up from 10) all speak to someone driving the ball in the air with authority more frequently.
"I'm a little wider than I was to start the year, a lot lower, but I'm still getting basically to the same position I was at contact," Baldwin said. "It's individualized per person but that's just how my body works. Kind of spread out and stable with everything rather than trying to use more movement. I feel like when I cut down on movement, I'm able to use my hands more and the power just comes by itself."
https://soxmachine.com/2025/08/white-so ... interfered
Baldwin in April
Baldwin in August
"I went back to something very similar to what I had always done; very similar to what I did in high school and basically what I did in college, something I'm more comfortable with," Baldwin said of his deeper crouch. "For me, it keeps my head a little bit more still. I'm still able to use my length on the upper half, but still stay connected to the ground and use my legs a little bit more."
Baldwin says it feels like the new setup makes him better suited to resist efforts to get him to expand on pitches above the strike zone, but the data makes it more of a feeling. Due to his essential nature, Baldwin being comfortable at the plate usually involves more swinging. His chase rate since being recalled at the start of July would be a top-10 mark in the sport (and it's only been higher in August), but his contact rate is up too.
Absent traditional indicators of better swing decisions, Baldwin argues that simply seeing the ball more clearly is making him better positioned to make things happen. His exit velocity (91.1 mph, up from 89.
, barrel rate (13.9 percent, up from 6.3), hard-hit rate (44.4 percent, up from 38.5) and even average launch angle (20.4 degrees, up from 10) all speak to someone driving the ball in the air with authority more frequently."I'm a little wider than I was to start the year, a lot lower, but I'm still getting basically to the same position I was at contact," Baldwin said. "It's individualized per person but that's just how my body works. Kind of spread out and stable with everything rather than trying to use more movement. I feel like when I cut down on movement, I'm able to use my hands more and the power just comes by itself."
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Gavin Cross, OF, Kansas City Royals (Double-A Northwest Arkansas): .333 (15-45), 14 R, 5 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 7 K, 6 SB.
Season Stats (Double-A): .235/.292/.413, 16 HR, 20 SB.
The ninth-overall selection in 2022, Cross looked like the steal of the draft after his initial performance where he slashed .312/.437/.633 across two low levels. Since that time, he’s failed to replicate that success, spending part of the past three seasons in the Texas League. However, there might have been a corner turned in Cross’ development. He’s been Northwest Arkansas’ hottest hitter in the second half, hitting .301 with eight home runs since July 1st. Cross will be 25 to start the season next year, making 2026 make-or-break for him as a prospect.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... is-flores/
Dante Nori, OF, Phillies (High-A Jersey Shore): 4-4, 2B, BB, 4 SB.
In a few years, Nori may wrap up a stolen-base title by the start of September. The fleet-footed first-round pick from 2024 has shown ideal leadoff capabilities, with a low-whiff, high-walk profile and what should be a 50-steal season.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... o-polanco/
Season Stats (Double-A): .235/.292/.413, 16 HR, 20 SB.
The ninth-overall selection in 2022, Cross looked like the steal of the draft after his initial performance where he slashed .312/.437/.633 across two low levels. Since that time, he’s failed to replicate that success, spending part of the past three seasons in the Texas League. However, there might have been a corner turned in Cross’ development. He’s been Northwest Arkansas’ hottest hitter in the second half, hitting .301 with eight home runs since July 1st. Cross will be 25 to start the season next year, making 2026 make-or-break for him as a prospect.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... is-flores/
Dante Nori, OF, Phillies (High-A Jersey Shore): 4-4, 2B, BB, 4 SB.
In a few years, Nori may wrap up a stolen-base title by the start of September. The fleet-footed first-round pick from 2024 has shown ideal leadoff capabilities, with a low-whiff, high-walk profile and what should be a 50-steal season.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... o-polanco/
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When Troy Melton was first featured here at FanGraphs in August 2023, he was described as a “Tigers Pitching Prospect on the Rise.” Then with High-A West Michigan and in his first full professional season, the 2022 fourth-rounder out of San Diego State University was climbing the rankings thanks largely to a firm fastball and plus command. As Eric Longenhagen put it, “His fastball’s impact alone should be enough to make him a good big league reliever even if his secondary stuff doesn’t develop.”
Two years later, the 24-year-old right-hander was ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Tigers system and 70th overall in our 2025 updated Top 100 list. His ascent has landed him in Motown, and a markedly improved repertoire is a big reason why. Moreover, he has been one of the team’s most effective pitchers since his late-July arrival. Over 10 appearances — seven out of the bullpen and three as a starter — Melton has logged a 2.25 ERA and a 3.66 FIP over 32 innings.
An argument could be made that Melton is currently the second-best starting pitcher on the Tigers roster — behind only Tarik Skubal — even though he isn’t getting an opportunity to show it. The AL Central leaders are primarily using the rookie as a reliever, the reasons being twofold: The 107 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the minors and majors are already a career high, and Detroit would rather use him more than just every fifth day. According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch said, “It’s an advantage to have Troy Melton available more often, even if it’s just in shorter bursts.”
Hinch went on to say that the Tigers “may start him down the road this season,” and results suggest that could be a good idea. Over the past six weeks, the foursome of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack has registered ERAs ranging from 4.66 to 5.81. Meanwhile, Melton’s mark over his three starts, covering 17 innings, is 3.18. Prior to his call-up, the youngster fashioned a 2.72 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 18 games (16 starts) with Triple-A Toledo.
Which brings us to his evolution as a pitcher. Two years after talking with him down on the farm, I caught up to Melton to ask what has changed. How does he differ from when he was taking the mound in the Midwest League?
“I’m the same person, for sure,” Melton told me at Comerica Park in the penultimate week of August. “Pitching-wise, though, there is a big difference between High-A and here. Even from Triple-A and here. Getting more consistent with execution is the biggest thing. There have been some new grips and pitches, but executing more often has been my main goal.”
The mention of new grips and pitches was right up my alley, so I proceeded to ask Melton about the adjustments he’s made to his repertoire.
“In High-A, I didn’t have a curveball at all; I was using a big sweeper as that sort of pitch,” he said. “So, I changed from sweeper to curveball — this was in the offseason going into 2024 — just a traditional knuckle-curveball right over the horseshoe. Initially it was supposed to be a pitch to get into counts with something other than the fastball, but it has turned into a pitch where I can get swing-and-miss, and even strikeouts.”
Interestingly, the curveball has been Melton’s least-used pitch as a Tiger; he’s throwing it just 5.1% of the time. More impactful has been his slider. Whereas he used to throw a sweeper and a cutter, the former is now “a true slider.”
“I throw it harder now,” Melton explained. “When my slider was more of a sweeper it was around 81-82 [mph], and now it averages 86ish. It is depthier, around negative two or negative three on the charts, and with less horizontal.
“The cutter has been a lot firmer this year, as well,” he added. “When we talked before, I was probably throwing it 86-87 on average, and now it’s 90-91 with shorter movement. It’s more a fastball than it was. Before, it had been kind of like a weird hybrid breaking ball. It was a good pitch, but not a great pitch. Now I’m in a better spot where it’s a little bit harder with a little tighter movement.”
Per Stacast, Melton’s slider and cutter usage has been 25.2% and 10.4%, respectively. And then there is his new fastball. Along with a 96.9-mph four-seamer, which he is throwing at a 36.9% clip, Melton is mixing in 95.4-mph sinkers at 15.3%.
“Metrically, the two isn’t the prettiest pitch in the world,” he admitted. “I do throw some good ones, but it’s more that it’s not just four-seam, four-seam, four-seam all the time. I can change their eyes and make it harder for them to gear up for just one. It’s more of a two-seam than a sinker, but I call it a sinker just for my brain when I’m throwing it.”
Whether or not the Detroit brain trust chooses to use Melton as a starter down the stretch could very well impact the team’s fortunes. The Tigers may have the division locked up, but with a .500 record since the beginning of July and six losses in their last eight games, they no longer have a firm grasp on the top seed in the American League. These September games are going to be meaningful.
For now, the Tigers appear to be staying the course with their rotation, and that could prove to be the wise move. Maybe it is beneficial to have Melton available to pitch more often than he would as a starter, and it makes some sense that the Tigers have faith in Flaherty and Mize. Flaherty has an bloated 4.66 ERA over the last two months, but his peripherals (3.03 FIP, 3.37 xFIP) suggest he’s been a better pitcher than that, and Mize was an All-Star this season for his excellent first half. If they turn things around over these next few weeks, they could join Skubal to form a daunting postseason rotation trio. In that case, Melton could be more useful as a reliable reliever than as the fourth man in the rotation, even though deadline additions Morton and Paddack look to be cooked. But if things don’t break Detroit’s way with Flaherty and Mize, it’s fair to wonder whether the team has a starter other than Skubal that it can trust more than Melton.
Either way, thanks to some key adjustments, Melton is emerging as an important piece for the Tigers at precisely the right time — even if it’s unclear what specific role he will fill down the stretch and in the playoffs.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/troy-melton ... t-starter/
Two years later, the 24-year-old right-hander was ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Tigers system and 70th overall in our 2025 updated Top 100 list. His ascent has landed him in Motown, and a markedly improved repertoire is a big reason why. Moreover, he has been one of the team’s most effective pitchers since his late-July arrival. Over 10 appearances — seven out of the bullpen and three as a starter — Melton has logged a 2.25 ERA and a 3.66 FIP over 32 innings.
An argument could be made that Melton is currently the second-best starting pitcher on the Tigers roster — behind only Tarik Skubal — even though he isn’t getting an opportunity to show it. The AL Central leaders are primarily using the rookie as a reliever, the reasons being twofold: The 107 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the minors and majors are already a career high, and Detroit would rather use him more than just every fifth day. According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch said, “It’s an advantage to have Troy Melton available more often, even if it’s just in shorter bursts.”
Hinch went on to say that the Tigers “may start him down the road this season,” and results suggest that could be a good idea. Over the past six weeks, the foursome of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack has registered ERAs ranging from 4.66 to 5.81. Meanwhile, Melton’s mark over his three starts, covering 17 innings, is 3.18. Prior to his call-up, the youngster fashioned a 2.72 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 18 games (16 starts) with Triple-A Toledo.
Which brings us to his evolution as a pitcher. Two years after talking with him down on the farm, I caught up to Melton to ask what has changed. How does he differ from when he was taking the mound in the Midwest League?
“I’m the same person, for sure,” Melton told me at Comerica Park in the penultimate week of August. “Pitching-wise, though, there is a big difference between High-A and here. Even from Triple-A and here. Getting more consistent with execution is the biggest thing. There have been some new grips and pitches, but executing more often has been my main goal.”
The mention of new grips and pitches was right up my alley, so I proceeded to ask Melton about the adjustments he’s made to his repertoire.
“In High-A, I didn’t have a curveball at all; I was using a big sweeper as that sort of pitch,” he said. “So, I changed from sweeper to curveball — this was in the offseason going into 2024 — just a traditional knuckle-curveball right over the horseshoe. Initially it was supposed to be a pitch to get into counts with something other than the fastball, but it has turned into a pitch where I can get swing-and-miss, and even strikeouts.”
Interestingly, the curveball has been Melton’s least-used pitch as a Tiger; he’s throwing it just 5.1% of the time. More impactful has been his slider. Whereas he used to throw a sweeper and a cutter, the former is now “a true slider.”
“I throw it harder now,” Melton explained. “When my slider was more of a sweeper it was around 81-82 [mph], and now it averages 86ish. It is depthier, around negative two or negative three on the charts, and with less horizontal.
“The cutter has been a lot firmer this year, as well,” he added. “When we talked before, I was probably throwing it 86-87 on average, and now it’s 90-91 with shorter movement. It’s more a fastball than it was. Before, it had been kind of like a weird hybrid breaking ball. It was a good pitch, but not a great pitch. Now I’m in a better spot where it’s a little bit harder with a little tighter movement.”
Per Stacast, Melton’s slider and cutter usage has been 25.2% and 10.4%, respectively. And then there is his new fastball. Along with a 96.9-mph four-seamer, which he is throwing at a 36.9% clip, Melton is mixing in 95.4-mph sinkers at 15.3%.
“Metrically, the two isn’t the prettiest pitch in the world,” he admitted. “I do throw some good ones, but it’s more that it’s not just four-seam, four-seam, four-seam all the time. I can change their eyes and make it harder for them to gear up for just one. It’s more of a two-seam than a sinker, but I call it a sinker just for my brain when I’m throwing it.”
Whether or not the Detroit brain trust chooses to use Melton as a starter down the stretch could very well impact the team’s fortunes. The Tigers may have the division locked up, but with a .500 record since the beginning of July and six losses in their last eight games, they no longer have a firm grasp on the top seed in the American League. These September games are going to be meaningful.
For now, the Tigers appear to be staying the course with their rotation, and that could prove to be the wise move. Maybe it is beneficial to have Melton available to pitch more often than he would as a starter, and it makes some sense that the Tigers have faith in Flaherty and Mize. Flaherty has an bloated 4.66 ERA over the last two months, but his peripherals (3.03 FIP, 3.37 xFIP) suggest he’s been a better pitcher than that, and Mize was an All-Star this season for his excellent first half. If they turn things around over these next few weeks, they could join Skubal to form a daunting postseason rotation trio. In that case, Melton could be more useful as a reliable reliever than as the fourth man in the rotation, even though deadline additions Morton and Paddack look to be cooked. But if things don’t break Detroit’s way with Flaherty and Mize, it’s fair to wonder whether the team has a starter other than Skubal that it can trust more than Melton.
Either way, thanks to some key adjustments, Melton is emerging as an important piece for the Tigers at precisely the right time — even if it’s unclear what specific role he will fill down the stretch and in the playoffs.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/troy-melton ... t-starter/
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Padres
- Site Admin
- Posts: 4982
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- Name: Jim Berger
Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Fernando Perez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Double-A New Hampshire): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Some other pitching prospects in the organization get more ink, but Perez is quietly putting together a stellar season and planting his flag as one of the top arms in the system. The stuff is solid, but he lacks a true swing-and-miss offering. Instead, Perez stays off barrels with his excellent command and deceptive delivery. While he might not have the upside of Trey Yesavage or Johnny King, Perez does profile as a useful back of the rotation starter.
Aiden May, RHP, Miami Marlins (Low-A Jupiter): 5 ⅓ IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... h-voitage/
Marco Dinges, C, Brewers:
Dinges' maximum-effort swing generates plenty of bat speed and has translated into a .300/.415/.502 line with 11 homers in 72 games between two Class A stops. His catching is a work in progress but he does have a strong arm.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/breakout- ... e-coverage
Kansas City Royals pitching prospect Ben Kudrna has been promoted to Triple-A Omaha after making 20 appearances (19 starts) at Double-A Nashville this season. The Royals' seventh-ranked prospect posted a 4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 15.7 percent K-BB% with the Sounds, but had pitched much better as of late. The former second-rounder recorded a 1.71 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 17.4 percent K-BB% over his last six starts (31 2/3 innings pitched). The 6-foot-3 righty doesn't have eye-popping strikeout numbers like so many starters these days, but he showed improved command this season. He'll look to carry that momentum to Triple-A, then hopefully on into an MLB debut next year, although he's not necessarily a stash candidate in dynasty leagues.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/be ... elemetry=1
Some other pitching prospects in the organization get more ink, but Perez is quietly putting together a stellar season and planting his flag as one of the top arms in the system. The stuff is solid, but he lacks a true swing-and-miss offering. Instead, Perez stays off barrels with his excellent command and deceptive delivery. While he might not have the upside of Trey Yesavage or Johnny King, Perez does profile as a useful back of the rotation starter.
Aiden May, RHP, Miami Marlins (Low-A Jupiter): 5 ⅓ IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... h-voitage/
Marco Dinges, C, Brewers:
Dinges' maximum-effort swing generates plenty of bat speed and has translated into a .300/.415/.502 line with 11 homers in 72 games between two Class A stops. His catching is a work in progress but he does have a strong arm.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/breakout- ... e-coverage
Kansas City Royals pitching prospect Ben Kudrna has been promoted to Triple-A Omaha after making 20 appearances (19 starts) at Double-A Nashville this season. The Royals' seventh-ranked prospect posted a 4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 15.7 percent K-BB% with the Sounds, but had pitched much better as of late. The former second-rounder recorded a 1.71 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 17.4 percent K-BB% over his last six starts (31 2/3 innings pitched). The 6-foot-3 righty doesn't have eye-popping strikeout numbers like so many starters these days, but he showed improved command this season. He'll look to carry that momentum to Triple-A, then hopefully on into an MLB debut next year, although he's not necessarily a stash candidate in dynasty leagues.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/be ... elemetry=1
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Padres
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- Name: Jim Berger
Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Keeping his slider from getting too hard and cutter-like in shape has been a season-long project for Shane Smith. So his tone about it can sometimes take the tone of a disappointed father, where a question about what secondaries his new sinker tunnels with is a good opportunity to land a pointed barb.
"If my slider were any good, it would," Smith said
Optimistically, one of the breaking balls that helped Smith get picked first overall in the Rule 5 draft, is just going through a developmental phase his other misbehaving children, like the curveball he needs to stay on top of, or the seam-effects changeup he worked to stop yanking after the All-Star break.
But to hear Smith and the White Sox tell it, their favorite element of his recent work came as an adaptation to not having any of his offspeed pitches working during a yeoman's six innings and four runs allowed in Atlanta.
"He really couldn't get any of his secondary stuff going," pitching coach Ethan Katz recalled. "It was just fastball -- four-seam, sinker -- but that just got to show how good he was. One of the biggest things for me, and we talked through this, in Anaheim, I really did not like how he was going about his business. I really thought he was trying to nibble, overthinking things. So we had a conversation about that because I thought the best version of him was when he got after guys, attacking guys. And he really responded really well to that message."
"Throwing everything with conviction and you're not worried about the result after the ball leaves your hand," Smith said, showing his interpretation of the approach. "It's easy to get caught in the, 'If I miss here, if I miss there,' damage, whatever it is, you know, just keep throwing your stuff."
After wrapping up a resurgent month of August that saw him hold a 2.67 ERA in 33⅔ innings, the White Sox are signaling that they're comfortable with Smith making the rest of his starts through the end of the year. With his velocity up a tick from even the 94.8 mph he sat in April, the 25-year-old right-hander is looking physically up for powering to the finish. More velocity is helpful, because Smith's aggressive new approach is highly reliant on attacking with his sinker.
"It just gives me different looks, gets me in and out, gets me up and down," Smith said of the second fastball shape. A hitter can't cover every part of the plate. If they can, and some guys can, it's tough to do it pitch-to-pitch. You might do it over the course of an at-bat if I make a mistake, or go to the same quadrant more than once. But it's pretty hard to if I'm going two-seamer up and in, to a slider down and away, to four-seam up and away, to a changeup down and away. If you're taking and/or putting a barrel on everything you're really, really good at what you do."
If there's any lingering doubt for how much Smith is thinking through how having a new fastball shape gives him new quadrants of the strike zone to work, alongside the sort of randomized cut/ride action that his four-seamer offers, there are four more long quotes of him mapping out scenarios like the last one that could be dropped in here to dismiss such concerns. At this juncture of his first professional season that's been fully dedicated to starting, Smith feels like as much as his expanded arsenal has altered the course of his career, it's helped him get used to scraping together a game plan out of whatever options are working.
"I would throw in Double-A game last year usually having one pitch, and maybe a curveball that was like, decent," Smith said. "I would say my pitchability has gone up, just having more weapons. Even if the changeup is not perfect. I think I used 10 [the other day]. Got some takes, foul balls, popups. That's usable."
While giving Smith a new changeup scans as the main way they improved him from his prospect days with the Brewers, the White Sox Rule 5 leap of faith was inspired as much as anything in belief that his fastball would play, despite the lack of elite riding action. And that was before Smith established that he would be sitting 96 mph late into the year, or found a reliable cue for deploying a sinker grip.
With a more expanded arsenal in place, the White Sox aren't demanding perfection from Smith, but don't think he has cause to give in to timidity. There are only a handful of impact fastballs on staff, and Smith has one. The goal is to end the season pitching like it.
"For a young guy to have a tough game up here can really do some work to them upstairs, because then they start thinking about things, or if someone hits a pitch a certain way then they start going down some rabbit holes that maybe they don't need to," Katz said. "You're gonna have bad games. You're gonna go through some tough stretches. You're gonna have some days when you're just off mechanically. But trying to navigate and trying to keep the team in it is gonna be very important.
"For him, it's just staying locked in and trusting your stuff and trying to have those feedback loops to kind of show him this is how good your stuff is, this is what you're doing. Don't let this one little thing be a blip on the radar to where now you're starting to lose your confidence, or think that you don't have the same arsenal or something's not the same. Just stay the course and keep attacking guys."
https://soxmachine.com/2025/09/shane-sm ... essive-one
"If my slider were any good, it would," Smith said
Optimistically, one of the breaking balls that helped Smith get picked first overall in the Rule 5 draft, is just going through a developmental phase his other misbehaving children, like the curveball he needs to stay on top of, or the seam-effects changeup he worked to stop yanking after the All-Star break.
But to hear Smith and the White Sox tell it, their favorite element of his recent work came as an adaptation to not having any of his offspeed pitches working during a yeoman's six innings and four runs allowed in Atlanta.
"He really couldn't get any of his secondary stuff going," pitching coach Ethan Katz recalled. "It was just fastball -- four-seam, sinker -- but that just got to show how good he was. One of the biggest things for me, and we talked through this, in Anaheim, I really did not like how he was going about his business. I really thought he was trying to nibble, overthinking things. So we had a conversation about that because I thought the best version of him was when he got after guys, attacking guys. And he really responded really well to that message."
"Throwing everything with conviction and you're not worried about the result after the ball leaves your hand," Smith said, showing his interpretation of the approach. "It's easy to get caught in the, 'If I miss here, if I miss there,' damage, whatever it is, you know, just keep throwing your stuff."
After wrapping up a resurgent month of August that saw him hold a 2.67 ERA in 33⅔ innings, the White Sox are signaling that they're comfortable with Smith making the rest of his starts through the end of the year. With his velocity up a tick from even the 94.8 mph he sat in April, the 25-year-old right-hander is looking physically up for powering to the finish. More velocity is helpful, because Smith's aggressive new approach is highly reliant on attacking with his sinker.
"It just gives me different looks, gets me in and out, gets me up and down," Smith said of the second fastball shape. A hitter can't cover every part of the plate. If they can, and some guys can, it's tough to do it pitch-to-pitch. You might do it over the course of an at-bat if I make a mistake, or go to the same quadrant more than once. But it's pretty hard to if I'm going two-seamer up and in, to a slider down and away, to four-seam up and away, to a changeup down and away. If you're taking and/or putting a barrel on everything you're really, really good at what you do."
If there's any lingering doubt for how much Smith is thinking through how having a new fastball shape gives him new quadrants of the strike zone to work, alongside the sort of randomized cut/ride action that his four-seamer offers, there are four more long quotes of him mapping out scenarios like the last one that could be dropped in here to dismiss such concerns. At this juncture of his first professional season that's been fully dedicated to starting, Smith feels like as much as his expanded arsenal has altered the course of his career, it's helped him get used to scraping together a game plan out of whatever options are working.
"I would throw in Double-A game last year usually having one pitch, and maybe a curveball that was like, decent," Smith said. "I would say my pitchability has gone up, just having more weapons. Even if the changeup is not perfect. I think I used 10 [the other day]. Got some takes, foul balls, popups. That's usable."
While giving Smith a new changeup scans as the main way they improved him from his prospect days with the Brewers, the White Sox Rule 5 leap of faith was inspired as much as anything in belief that his fastball would play, despite the lack of elite riding action. And that was before Smith established that he would be sitting 96 mph late into the year, or found a reliable cue for deploying a sinker grip.
With a more expanded arsenal in place, the White Sox aren't demanding perfection from Smith, but don't think he has cause to give in to timidity. There are only a handful of impact fastballs on staff, and Smith has one. The goal is to end the season pitching like it.
"For a young guy to have a tough game up here can really do some work to them upstairs, because then they start thinking about things, or if someone hits a pitch a certain way then they start going down some rabbit holes that maybe they don't need to," Katz said. "You're gonna have bad games. You're gonna go through some tough stretches. You're gonna have some days when you're just off mechanically. But trying to navigate and trying to keep the team in it is gonna be very important.
"For him, it's just staying locked in and trusting your stuff and trying to have those feedback loops to kind of show him this is how good your stuff is, this is what you're doing. Don't let this one little thing be a blip on the radar to where now you're starting to lose your confidence, or think that you don't have the same arsenal or something's not the same. Just stay the course and keep attacking guys."
https://soxmachine.com/2025/09/shane-sm ... essive-one
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Padres
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Cody Laweryson was enjoying a pregame workout Thursday before his manager with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints beckoned him to the clubhouse to deliver some life-altering news.
The relief pitcher from the small Maine town of Moscow was going to the big leagues, after the Minnesota Twins promoted him from St. Paul.
“(Toby Gardenhire) announced it in front of the whole team,” said Laweryson, a Valley High School and University of Maine graduate. “It was a pretty wild moment. I was pretty shocked. I had thrown 30-35 pitches (on Wednesday), and it was probably one of the last things that I was expecting. It threw me off guard, but I’m ready to go.”
Laweryson’s promotion was first reported by Saints and Twins beat writer Theodore Tollefson of Zone Coverage on Thursday night.
The Minnesota Twins, who are out of playoff contention, are hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend. Laweryson is trying to become the first Maine native to make his major league debut since Portland’ native’s Ryan Reid pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2013.
Laweryson would become just the seventh Mainer to appear in the majors in the last 25 years, joining Reid (2013), Ryan Flaherty (2012-19), Charlie Furbush (2011-15), Matt Kinney (2000-05), Mark Rogers (2010-12) and Tim Stauffer (2005-15).
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“It’s been a whirlwind the last 12-15 hours, whenever it was that they told me I’m going to the big leagues,” Laweryson said Friday before heading to Target Field, the Twins’ home stadium. “I’m still trying to wrap my head around it and probably won’t completely have it together until I get to the field or get to the bullpen. I just want to soak everything in and try to keep the emotions down throughout this whole process. Obviously, that’s going to be tough. It’s a pretty crazy feeling.”
Its been a long journey to the big leagues for the 27-year-old Laweryson, who has persevered through struggles and injuries. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound right-hander was selected by the Twins in the 14th round (419th overall) in the 2019 MLB Draft.
In 34 appearances this season between the Saints and the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, Laweryson is 2-4 with six saves and a 2.86 ERA. He has 45 strikeouts in 44 innings.
The timing of his call-up couldn’t have been better, since he is in a contract year. How he performs with the Twins in the final weeks of the season could impact his future, be it with Minnesota or another organization.
“It’s been a long time coming,” Laweryson said. “I think this is more of a two- to three-week audition, to see what I can really provide. I’ve met a lot of the goals that they’ve wanted from me. There’s been some bumps in the road, some injuries. But this year, I feel like I’ve finally put everything together that they’ve asked me to do. I think they appreciate that, and obviously I appreciate them for the opportunity. There’s not many minor leaguers left from that 2019 draft class. I think I’m ready to go out there and compete.”
Laweryson missed a year of development in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Last year, he suffered an oblique injury that cost him two months. In 27 games, Laweryson was 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA, the highest of his pro career.
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Laweryson also dealt with a right forearm strain this season, which sideline him for a month. He was activated on Aug. 20 and has allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings in September.
“(The injury) wasn’t anything serious,” he said. “(The rest) actually helped my entire body. We were right in the middle of the season, near the All-Star break. You’re 100 games into the season and begin to think about other things, maybe get your mind off track. You never want to land on the IL, but when I came back, I felt physically and mentally fresh. I’ve been in a pretty good spot since coming off the IL.”
Several family members and friends were on their way from Maine to Minneapolis on Friday afternoon, including Laweryson’s parents, Scott and Jolene. Scott Laweryson — Cody’s baseball coach at Valley — was emotional when talking about his son’s baseball journey.
“I’m completely beside myself,” he said. “It’s been 20 years coming. He worked really hard for this and the family has supported him the entire way through this. It’s a dream come true.
“You just want everything to go right for him. But I never doubted him, that drive and desire. This is something he’s always wanted and put all his focus into it. I’ve told everybody, this has been the greatest ride of my life.”
Former Skowhegan football and basketball standout Marcus Christopher, a friend of Laweryson’s, is also making the trip. The pair have a basketball-driven podcast called “Mainely Hoops” that Laweryson participates in during the offseason.
“We’re all thrilled, it’s been a long road for him,” Christopher said. “Obviously, this has been the goal for him for quite some time. He’s had plenty of setbacks along the way, but in the back of his mind, the goal is always to get there. To be from a small town of about 600 people and make it to MLB (is great).”
https://www.pressherald.com/2025/09/12/ ... ota-twins/
The relief pitcher from the small Maine town of Moscow was going to the big leagues, after the Minnesota Twins promoted him from St. Paul.
“(Toby Gardenhire) announced it in front of the whole team,” said Laweryson, a Valley High School and University of Maine graduate. “It was a pretty wild moment. I was pretty shocked. I had thrown 30-35 pitches (on Wednesday), and it was probably one of the last things that I was expecting. It threw me off guard, but I’m ready to go.”
Laweryson’s promotion was first reported by Saints and Twins beat writer Theodore Tollefson of Zone Coverage on Thursday night.
The Minnesota Twins, who are out of playoff contention, are hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend. Laweryson is trying to become the first Maine native to make his major league debut since Portland’ native’s Ryan Reid pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2013.
Laweryson would become just the seventh Mainer to appear in the majors in the last 25 years, joining Reid (2013), Ryan Flaherty (2012-19), Charlie Furbush (2011-15), Matt Kinney (2000-05), Mark Rogers (2010-12) and Tim Stauffer (2005-15).
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“It’s been a whirlwind the last 12-15 hours, whenever it was that they told me I’m going to the big leagues,” Laweryson said Friday before heading to Target Field, the Twins’ home stadium. “I’m still trying to wrap my head around it and probably won’t completely have it together until I get to the field or get to the bullpen. I just want to soak everything in and try to keep the emotions down throughout this whole process. Obviously, that’s going to be tough. It’s a pretty crazy feeling.”
Its been a long journey to the big leagues for the 27-year-old Laweryson, who has persevered through struggles and injuries. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound right-hander was selected by the Twins in the 14th round (419th overall) in the 2019 MLB Draft.
In 34 appearances this season between the Saints and the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, Laweryson is 2-4 with six saves and a 2.86 ERA. He has 45 strikeouts in 44 innings.
The timing of his call-up couldn’t have been better, since he is in a contract year. How he performs with the Twins in the final weeks of the season could impact his future, be it with Minnesota or another organization.
“It’s been a long time coming,” Laweryson said. “I think this is more of a two- to three-week audition, to see what I can really provide. I’ve met a lot of the goals that they’ve wanted from me. There’s been some bumps in the road, some injuries. But this year, I feel like I’ve finally put everything together that they’ve asked me to do. I think they appreciate that, and obviously I appreciate them for the opportunity. There’s not many minor leaguers left from that 2019 draft class. I think I’m ready to go out there and compete.”
Laweryson missed a year of development in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Last year, he suffered an oblique injury that cost him two months. In 27 games, Laweryson was 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA, the highest of his pro career.
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Laweryson also dealt with a right forearm strain this season, which sideline him for a month. He was activated on Aug. 20 and has allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings in September.
“(The injury) wasn’t anything serious,” he said. “(The rest) actually helped my entire body. We were right in the middle of the season, near the All-Star break. You’re 100 games into the season and begin to think about other things, maybe get your mind off track. You never want to land on the IL, but when I came back, I felt physically and mentally fresh. I’ve been in a pretty good spot since coming off the IL.”
Several family members and friends were on their way from Maine to Minneapolis on Friday afternoon, including Laweryson’s parents, Scott and Jolene. Scott Laweryson — Cody’s baseball coach at Valley — was emotional when talking about his son’s baseball journey.
“I’m completely beside myself,” he said. “It’s been 20 years coming. He worked really hard for this and the family has supported him the entire way through this. It’s a dream come true.
“You just want everything to go right for him. But I never doubted him, that drive and desire. This is something he’s always wanted and put all his focus into it. I’ve told everybody, this has been the greatest ride of my life.”
Former Skowhegan football and basketball standout Marcus Christopher, a friend of Laweryson’s, is also making the trip. The pair have a basketball-driven podcast called “Mainely Hoops” that Laweryson participates in during the offseason.
“We’re all thrilled, it’s been a long road for him,” Christopher said. “Obviously, this has been the goal for him for quite some time. He’s had plenty of setbacks along the way, but in the back of his mind, the goal is always to get there. To be from a small town of about 600 people and make it to MLB (is great).”
https://www.pressherald.com/2025/09/12/ ... ota-twins/
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Regardless of how the White Sox fare during the last two weeks of the season, Colson Montgomery is certainly the biggest story of the team’s season. He is just a few months removed from being unable to produce respectable results in AAA, only to work on his swing and then provide an immediate impact at the MLB level.
Entering Sunday, Montgomery is hitting .220/.290/.517 with a .807 OPS, 117 wRC+, and 18 home runs in 59 games. He also had been a plus defender by virtually all defensive metrics while primarily playing shortstop, which, of course, is an extremely valuable position. Beyond the surface-level numbers, however, some interesting takeaways can be gathered from Montgomery’s rookie year and perhaps applied to his future as well.
Considering that Montgomery is batting .220 with a .230 BABIP, it would be easy to assume that he has been unlucky on batted balls. However, this is not necessarily the case. Montgomery’s expected batting average is .232, and his xBABIP is .269. While these figures are indeed higher than his actual numbers, the difference is negligible — this is supported further by Montgomery’s .340 wOBA and .344 xwOBA.
Why might Montgomery’s wOBA and xwOBA be nearly identical if his xBA and xBABIP are higher (albeit slightly) than his actual average and BABIP? The likely answer to this exists in Montgomery’s batted ball profile:
Colson Montgomery’s notable batted ball stats (entering Sunday):
31% fly balls (league average = 24%)
10% infield pop-ups (league average = 7%)
37% ground balls (league average = 44%)
47% pull rate (league average = 37%)
Clearly, Montgomery has a very pull-heavy and fly ball-heavy batted ball profile. This combination is generally very good at producing home runs when a player hits the ball hard. However, this combination also often leads to lower batting averages and a greater reliance on home runs and/or doubles to prop up a player’s batting line.
Ground balls, while they have a limited ceiling, are the most effective way for players to collect hits other than line drives. Montgomery does not hit a lot of ground balls. And when you factor in his above-average pop-up rate — a batted ball type with essentially zero probability of a positive outcome — it makes plenty of sense that Montgomery is currently a low-average, high-slugging hitter who is not a victim of bad luck despite a low BABIP.
Zooming back out, it is also important to note that none of this is a criticism of Montgomery. He hits these pop-ups in part because he is attempting to find his barrel and hit fly balls or line drives, and the pop-ups are an unfortunate byproduct of this approach. So far, his approach is working, so there is no reason to change it.
Additionally, far too many White Sox prospects of yesteryear have struggled with above-average ground ball rates, below-average pull rates, and consequently underwhelming power outputs. It is actually refreshing that Montgomery has the opposite approach. He hits a lot of fly balls, and he pulls a lot of them, which leads to many home runs. He also has shown an ability to hit home runs to the opposite field, which is a good sign for the future.
If Montgomery remains a pull-happy, fly-ball-heavy hitter in the future, his raw power will ideally allow for this to be worth the drawbacks. As long as he can stick at shortstop defensively (early returns are very positive) or at least third base, a .220-.260 hitter with plus defense at that position and plus power is already extremely valuable.
It is unrealistic to expect Montgomery’s recent home run pace to be his norm, but even if he “only” hits 25 home runs per season (or less than half of his current full-season pace), he will be very valuable. He is also an excellent counterpart to somebody like Kyle Teel, for example, whose ceiling may be closer to a .300 hitter but with less power.
Future tweaks to Montgomery’s swing or approach to increase his average or on-base skills should only be made if there is a marginal at most corresponding decrease to his power output. In other words, a plus defensive shortstop who hits .270 with 20 home runs is typically less valuable than if he hits .250 with 30 home runs. Montgomery does not need to become something that he is not. There are also other ways he can raise his floor during stretches where he is not hitting home runs, such as by increasing his walk rate (currently 8%).
In any case, White Sox fans should not expect Montgomery to post high batting averages, and that is totally fine provided he remains a fly ball-heavy slugger. So far, the risks have been worth the rewards, especially for a shortstop and for someone who plays in a home ballpark that is kind to power-hitting lefties.
https://www.soxon35th.com/what-colson-m ... his-future
Entering Sunday, Montgomery is hitting .220/.290/.517 with a .807 OPS, 117 wRC+, and 18 home runs in 59 games. He also had been a plus defender by virtually all defensive metrics while primarily playing shortstop, which, of course, is an extremely valuable position. Beyond the surface-level numbers, however, some interesting takeaways can be gathered from Montgomery’s rookie year and perhaps applied to his future as well.
Considering that Montgomery is batting .220 with a .230 BABIP, it would be easy to assume that he has been unlucky on batted balls. However, this is not necessarily the case. Montgomery’s expected batting average is .232, and his xBABIP is .269. While these figures are indeed higher than his actual numbers, the difference is negligible — this is supported further by Montgomery’s .340 wOBA and .344 xwOBA.
Why might Montgomery’s wOBA and xwOBA be nearly identical if his xBA and xBABIP are higher (albeit slightly) than his actual average and BABIP? The likely answer to this exists in Montgomery’s batted ball profile:
Colson Montgomery’s notable batted ball stats (entering Sunday):
31% fly balls (league average = 24%)
10% infield pop-ups (league average = 7%)
37% ground balls (league average = 44%)
47% pull rate (league average = 37%)
Clearly, Montgomery has a very pull-heavy and fly ball-heavy batted ball profile. This combination is generally very good at producing home runs when a player hits the ball hard. However, this combination also often leads to lower batting averages and a greater reliance on home runs and/or doubles to prop up a player’s batting line.
Ground balls, while they have a limited ceiling, are the most effective way for players to collect hits other than line drives. Montgomery does not hit a lot of ground balls. And when you factor in his above-average pop-up rate — a batted ball type with essentially zero probability of a positive outcome — it makes plenty of sense that Montgomery is currently a low-average, high-slugging hitter who is not a victim of bad luck despite a low BABIP.
Zooming back out, it is also important to note that none of this is a criticism of Montgomery. He hits these pop-ups in part because he is attempting to find his barrel and hit fly balls or line drives, and the pop-ups are an unfortunate byproduct of this approach. So far, his approach is working, so there is no reason to change it.
Additionally, far too many White Sox prospects of yesteryear have struggled with above-average ground ball rates, below-average pull rates, and consequently underwhelming power outputs. It is actually refreshing that Montgomery has the opposite approach. He hits a lot of fly balls, and he pulls a lot of them, which leads to many home runs. He also has shown an ability to hit home runs to the opposite field, which is a good sign for the future.
If Montgomery remains a pull-happy, fly-ball-heavy hitter in the future, his raw power will ideally allow for this to be worth the drawbacks. As long as he can stick at shortstop defensively (early returns are very positive) or at least third base, a .220-.260 hitter with plus defense at that position and plus power is already extremely valuable.
It is unrealistic to expect Montgomery’s recent home run pace to be his norm, but even if he “only” hits 25 home runs per season (or less than half of his current full-season pace), he will be very valuable. He is also an excellent counterpart to somebody like Kyle Teel, for example, whose ceiling may be closer to a .300 hitter but with less power.
Future tweaks to Montgomery’s swing or approach to increase his average or on-base skills should only be made if there is a marginal at most corresponding decrease to his power output. In other words, a plus defensive shortstop who hits .270 with 20 home runs is typically less valuable than if he hits .250 with 30 home runs. Montgomery does not need to become something that he is not. There are also other ways he can raise his floor during stretches where he is not hitting home runs, such as by increasing his walk rate (currently 8%).
In any case, White Sox fans should not expect Montgomery to post high batting averages, and that is totally fine provided he remains a fly ball-heavy slugger. So far, the risks have been worth the rewards, especially for a shortstop and for someone who plays in a home ballpark that is kind to power-hitting lefties.
https://www.soxon35th.com/what-colson-m ... his-future
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Padres
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Dominic Keegan, C, Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A Durham): 2-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI.
Injuries early and an extended slump during August have put a damper on Keegan’s 2025 stat line but he’s trending up through the last few weeks of the season. The bat looks to have returned to the form that made him our 5th ranked Rays prospect, slashing .286/.325/.514 this month. A healthy start next spring could have Keegan poised to lock down a spot in Tampa’s 2026 lineup.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bad2377d0f
Marco Dinges, C, Brewers
One of the more underrated prospects in the game, Dinges enjoyed a breakout season in 2025. The former Florida State standout hit .300/.416/.514 over 77 games, mostly with High-A Wisconsin. Dinges shows strong underlying data that supports his production, and he has a slight chance to stick behind the plate long term.
No matter how the glove develops in the coming years, though, the bat might be enough to carry his profile. Dinges shows fringe plate skills with plus raw power and good angles on contact. His 107.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was second in the Brewers’ system for players age 22 or younger.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... b70fb91975
Injuries early and an extended slump during August have put a damper on Keegan’s 2025 stat line but he’s trending up through the last few weeks of the season. The bat looks to have returned to the form that made him our 5th ranked Rays prospect, slashing .286/.325/.514 this month. A healthy start next spring could have Keegan poised to lock down a spot in Tampa’s 2026 lineup.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bad2377d0f
Marco Dinges, C, Brewers
One of the more underrated prospects in the game, Dinges enjoyed a breakout season in 2025. The former Florida State standout hit .300/.416/.514 over 77 games, mostly with High-A Wisconsin. Dinges shows strong underlying data that supports his production, and he has a slight chance to stick behind the plate long term.
No matter how the glove develops in the coming years, though, the bat might be enough to carry his profile. Dinges shows fringe plate skills with plus raw power and good angles on contact. His 107.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was second in the Brewers’ system for players age 22 or younger.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... b70fb91975
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
The team doesn’t want AJ Blubaugh to face a lineup a second time and his injury history make keep him in the bullpen.
Blubaugh’s truncated outing aligned with a pregame plan concocted by Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller. Team officials are still wary of Blubaugh’s ability to navigate a lineup more than once. Having him available as a reliever during the upcoming series against the Seattle Mariners mattered, too. Limiting him to 50 pitches made that possible.
…
Injuries have forced Blubaugh into the big-league bullpen after starting his entire professional career. Whether that is his long-term home is a matter of debate. His stuff has played up so well out of the bullpen that some team officials believe he is best suited for relief. Blubaugh has bumped 98 mph with his four-seam fastball when asked to pitch one inning. On Tuesday, it touched 96.6 mph, but averaged 94.1.
“It’s a tough one. He can start. He can come out of the (bullpen) — his stuff plays up out of the ’pen,” Espada said last week. “He’s not afraid to come after hitters … It’s tough because he can do a lot of things for a club.”
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-9-19-25/
Blubaugh’s truncated outing aligned with a pregame plan concocted by Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller. Team officials are still wary of Blubaugh’s ability to navigate a lineup more than once. Having him available as a reliever during the upcoming series against the Seattle Mariners mattered, too. Limiting him to 50 pitches made that possible.
…
Injuries have forced Blubaugh into the big-league bullpen after starting his entire professional career. Whether that is his long-term home is a matter of debate. His stuff has played up so well out of the bullpen that some team officials believe he is best suited for relief. Blubaugh has bumped 98 mph with his four-seam fastball when asked to pitch one inning. On Tuesday, it touched 96.6 mph, but averaged 94.1.
“It’s a tough one. He can start. He can come out of the (bullpen) — his stuff plays up out of the ’pen,” Espada said last week. “He’s not afraid to come after hitters … It’s tough because he can do a lot of things for a club.”
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-9-19-25/
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Third baseman Kyle Karros, impressive in his first big league camp, hit two home runs—the second a walk-off—on Opening Day for Double-A Hartford. He continued that trajectory and made his major league debut on Aug. 8 with the Rockies.
Karros earned MVP honors in the High-A Northwest League last year and won a minor league Gold Glove. He has a strong, accurate arm, nimble feet and moves well, particularly for someone who is 6-foot-5.
Karros was hitting .333 with a .960 OPS at Hartford when he fouled a ball off his right knee on May 2 and suffered a painful contusion. It was June 3 when he rejoined Hartford.
“The injury kind of set him back a little bit,” Rockies assistant farm director Jesse Stender said, “but he got back at it, forced his way up to Triple-A and obviously the rest is history now.”
Karros hit .294/.399/.462 in 55 games for Hartford with four home runs. The Rockies promoted him in mid-July to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he hit .306/.368/.500 in 16 games with two home runs.
Trading third baseman Ryan McMahon to the Yankees on July 25 created an opportunity for Karros, a fifth-round pick out of UCLA in 2023. His father Eric had a long, productive MLB career and remains a resource regarding hitting or anything else about the game.
After 34 games with the Rockies, Karros was hitting .232/.298/.295 with one home run. The Rockies expect that the 23-year-old will tap into the power he shows in batting practice.
A hard worker with leadership skills, Karros speaks Spanish well enough to converse with Latino players in their native language. He holds teammates and himself accountable.
“He’s just a cut above,” Stender said. “He’s just very mature for his age, very advanced. Great self-awareness. Understands where he is, where he needs to get better, what he does well, how he can help the team.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -the-year/
“So a lot of (his attributes) are the intangibles to go along with a plus defender and a guy who will continue to come into his own at the plate.”
Karros earned MVP honors in the High-A Northwest League last year and won a minor league Gold Glove. He has a strong, accurate arm, nimble feet and moves well, particularly for someone who is 6-foot-5.
Karros was hitting .333 with a .960 OPS at Hartford when he fouled a ball off his right knee on May 2 and suffered a painful contusion. It was June 3 when he rejoined Hartford.
“The injury kind of set him back a little bit,” Rockies assistant farm director Jesse Stender said, “but he got back at it, forced his way up to Triple-A and obviously the rest is history now.”
Karros hit .294/.399/.462 in 55 games for Hartford with four home runs. The Rockies promoted him in mid-July to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he hit .306/.368/.500 in 16 games with two home runs.
Trading third baseman Ryan McMahon to the Yankees on July 25 created an opportunity for Karros, a fifth-round pick out of UCLA in 2023. His father Eric had a long, productive MLB career and remains a resource regarding hitting or anything else about the game.
After 34 games with the Rockies, Karros was hitting .232/.298/.295 with one home run. The Rockies expect that the 23-year-old will tap into the power he shows in batting practice.
A hard worker with leadership skills, Karros speaks Spanish well enough to converse with Latino players in their native language. He holds teammates and himself accountable.
“He’s just a cut above,” Stender said. “He’s just very mature for his age, very advanced. Great self-awareness. Understands where he is, where he needs to get better, what he does well, how he can help the team.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -the-year/
“So a lot of (his attributes) are the intangibles to go along with a plus defender and a guy who will continue to come into his own at the plate.”
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
The Padres signed Dominican shortstop Victor Acosta and Venezuelan outfielder Samuel Zavala as the headliners of their 2021 international signing class.
Both have since been traded to bolster San Diego’s big league roster.
The Padres also signed Dominican righthander Miguel Mendez in 2021. Now, the 23-year-old stands as the organization’s minor league player of the year in a season in which San Diego traded a number of its top prospects, including Leo De Vries, Boston Bateman and Braden Nett.
Before hitting a wall at Double-A San Antonio, Mendez penned a 1.73 ERA over 72.2 innings as he rose from Low-A Lake Elsinore to High-A Fort Wayne. He didn’t allow an earned run in 24 July innings for Fort Wayne and then threw six more scoreless frames, striking out 11, in his Double-A debut on Aug. 7.
While Mendez’s performance unraveled afterward, he proved that his improved stuff would play at the upper levels. He finished with a 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 95 innings, with 118 strikeouts and 45 walks.
“I’m not surprised personally,” Padres vice president of amateur and international scouting Chris Kemp said. “The last couple of years, you could see the arm talent. He’s a really smart kid, a kid who’s coachable and makes adjustments.
“When you give him something to do, he’s wired to do it the right way.”
Mendez had only been pitching for about six months when Padres scouts first discovered him touching 91 mph while training in Bani, on the south side of the Dominican Republic. He signed for $10,000 because he was already 18 years old and inexperienced on the mound.
Mendez’s velocity jumped to 94-95 mph in 2023, and earlier this year he touched triple digits in a Midwest League game that Kemp was scouting. He pairs his heat with a tight upper-80s slider and a developing 88-91 changeup with sink and fade.
While his 11% walk rate remains high, it is improved from past seasons, as is his zone rate.
“We’ve put a lot on his plate,” Kemp said, “but he’s ready to have a killer offseason.”
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... fb56d0520e
Both have since been traded to bolster San Diego’s big league roster.
The Padres also signed Dominican righthander Miguel Mendez in 2021. Now, the 23-year-old stands as the organization’s minor league player of the year in a season in which San Diego traded a number of its top prospects, including Leo De Vries, Boston Bateman and Braden Nett.
Before hitting a wall at Double-A San Antonio, Mendez penned a 1.73 ERA over 72.2 innings as he rose from Low-A Lake Elsinore to High-A Fort Wayne. He didn’t allow an earned run in 24 July innings for Fort Wayne and then threw six more scoreless frames, striking out 11, in his Double-A debut on Aug. 7.
While Mendez’s performance unraveled afterward, he proved that his improved stuff would play at the upper levels. He finished with a 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 95 innings, with 118 strikeouts and 45 walks.
“I’m not surprised personally,” Padres vice president of amateur and international scouting Chris Kemp said. “The last couple of years, you could see the arm talent. He’s a really smart kid, a kid who’s coachable and makes adjustments.
“When you give him something to do, he’s wired to do it the right way.”
Mendez had only been pitching for about six months when Padres scouts first discovered him touching 91 mph while training in Bani, on the south side of the Dominican Republic. He signed for $10,000 because he was already 18 years old and inexperienced on the mound.
Mendez’s velocity jumped to 94-95 mph in 2023, and earlier this year he touched triple digits in a Midwest League game that Kemp was scouting. He pairs his heat with a tight upper-80s slider and a developing 88-91 changeup with sink and fade.
While his 11% walk rate remains high, it is improved from past seasons, as is his zone rate.
“We’ve put a lot on his plate,” Kemp said, “but he’s ready to have a killer offseason.”
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... fb56d0520e
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
Will Watson, RHP, Mets
Normalized Stuff+: 115*
Mets pitching development has been on fire of late, as New York seems to be churning out quality arms at a rate not seen since the organization’s World Series heyday ten years ago. Looking beyond their most recent crop of current major leaguers in Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, there are still some talented arms lurking in the minors.
One such pitcher is Watson. Drafted out of USC in the seventh round in 2024, the 22-year-old righty has enjoyed a breakout season for the Mets. He has a plus offering in his four-seam fastball and two above-average pitches in his slider and cutter.
Watson shows a deep arsenal of quality offerings and enough command to stick in a starter’s role long term.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 5dbf892a0d
* With the 2025 season wrapping up, we can begin to look back on the past five-plus months of minor league games and draw some conclusions. The sample size of data available is now standardized, allowing us to view certain metrics with a greater degree of confidence.
One such piece of data is our internal Stuff+ metric, for which we access the full suite of minor league data via sourcing and apply our proprietary formula developed by Dylan White. For today’s deep dive, we’ll be using normalized versions of these Stuff+ scores to identify some sleeper pitching prospects who popped up this season and are worth paying attention to.
We normalize our Stuff+ score results by rebalancing the data of each pitch classification against the average Stuff+ for that pitch type. In other words, because the average slider has a Stuff+ of 110, if a pitcher has a slider with a Stuff+ of 110, it is considered an “average” example of such a pitch and would therefore be rebalanced to 100 on the normalized scale. The weighted average of each pitcher’s normalized arsenal then results in their normalized Stuff+ score.
Using this model allows us to more accurately identify which pitchers are bringing elite stuff to each at-bat. And to increase our chances for identifying starters, we made sure each of the nine players included below threw a minimum of 900 pitches in the minors this season.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at some arms who stood out as potential sleeper picks.
Normalized Stuff+: 115*
Mets pitching development has been on fire of late, as New York seems to be churning out quality arms at a rate not seen since the organization’s World Series heyday ten years ago. Looking beyond their most recent crop of current major leaguers in Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, there are still some talented arms lurking in the minors.
One such pitcher is Watson. Drafted out of USC in the seventh round in 2024, the 22-year-old righty has enjoyed a breakout season for the Mets. He has a plus offering in his four-seam fastball and two above-average pitches in his slider and cutter.
Watson shows a deep arsenal of quality offerings and enough command to stick in a starter’s role long term.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... 5dbf892a0d
* With the 2025 season wrapping up, we can begin to look back on the past five-plus months of minor league games and draw some conclusions. The sample size of data available is now standardized, allowing us to view certain metrics with a greater degree of confidence.
One such piece of data is our internal Stuff+ metric, for which we access the full suite of minor league data via sourcing and apply our proprietary formula developed by Dylan White. For today’s deep dive, we’ll be using normalized versions of these Stuff+ scores to identify some sleeper pitching prospects who popped up this season and are worth paying attention to.
We normalize our Stuff+ score results by rebalancing the data of each pitch classification against the average Stuff+ for that pitch type. In other words, because the average slider has a Stuff+ of 110, if a pitcher has a slider with a Stuff+ of 110, it is considered an “average” example of such a pitch and would therefore be rebalanced to 100 on the normalized scale. The weighted average of each pitcher’s normalized arsenal then results in their normalized Stuff+ score.
Using this model allows us to more accurately identify which pitchers are bringing elite stuff to each at-bat. And to increase our chances for identifying starters, we made sure each of the nine players included below threw a minimum of 900 pitches in the minors this season.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at some arms who stood out as potential sleeper picks.
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Re: 2025 Padres prospects news and notes
29. Will Johnston, LHP, 24, 6’3”/225, AAA
Johnston seems to fit the bill of a sleeper in this organization. A 2023 13th-round pick out of Texas A&M, Johnston did not get the love that most SEC arms do. Pitching most of the season in Double-A, Johnston posted a 3.62 ERA there with a 33 percent strikeout rate and a 12 percent walk rate.
The fastball won’t overpower anyone as Johnston sits in the low-90s, but it does come with 19 inches of IVB from a high release slot. Johnston rides it well and it plays when he locates it at the top of the zone.
Johnston also throws a low-80s splitter that has late depth and fade and plays well off the fastball. It is inconsistent with shape at times, and when Johnston leaves it over the plate, it can get hit hard. The slider sits in the low-80s with nice depth but is presently a below-average offering.
https://www.thedynastydugout.com/p/athl ... a29fbfaef8
Johnston seems to fit the bill of a sleeper in this organization. A 2023 13th-round pick out of Texas A&M, Johnston did not get the love that most SEC arms do. Pitching most of the season in Double-A, Johnston posted a 3.62 ERA there with a 33 percent strikeout rate and a 12 percent walk rate.
The fastball won’t overpower anyone as Johnston sits in the low-90s, but it does come with 19 inches of IVB from a high release slot. Johnston rides it well and it plays when he locates it at the top of the zone.
Johnston also throws a low-80s splitter that has late depth and fade and plays well off the fastball. It is inconsistent with shape at times, and when Johnston leaves it over the plate, it can get hit hard. The slider sits in the low-80s with nice depth but is presently a below-average offering.
https://www.thedynastydugout.com/p/athl ... a29fbfaef8
