IBC

From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-6-25-24/

2. Matt Shaw, SS, Cubs
Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .429/.519/1.048 (9-for-21), 8 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 9 RBIs, 5 BB, 5 SO, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Shaw has taken a little while to get going, but last week the Cubs’ 2023 first-rounder kicked his bat into high gear. Shaw recorded four multi-hit games against Mississippi, including a two-home run game to close the series. Shaw hit four home runs over the six-game series, nearly doubling his season total. He has now has reached base in 10 consecutive games. Blessed with a well-rounded skill set, Shaw has shown strong approach all season and is beginning to show his above-average in-game pop. (GP)

From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... s-bashing/

Brody Hopkins, RHP, Seattle Mariners (Low-A Modesto): 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.
A former two-way star at Winthrop, Hopkins is settling into a life exclusively on the mound in Modesto. It looks to be the right decision by the Mariners, with Low-A hitters struggling against Hopkins’ high-90s fastball and sharp slider. Control was an issue in college but Hopkins has reined it in enough to be effective, making him an arm to keep an eye on in the organization.

From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-7-30-24/

Hyun-Seok Jang, RHP, Dodgers

When he’s got it going, Jang has some of the nastiest stuff in the minor leagues. The righthander, whom the Dodgers signed last August, spent his first season stateside in the Arizona Complex League. On July 28, in the first game of his team’s championship series against the cross-valley rival D-backs, Jang was magnificent. The righthander spun three one-hit shutout innings and struck out eight of the 11 hitters he faced. As has been the case all season, Jang did show a bit of wildness. He walked one hitter and uncorked a pair of wild pitches. In the regular year, he struck out 41.5% of the hitters he faced, but also finished with a walk rate of around 16% and threw nine wild pitches. Jang has serious upside and major league-ready stuff. To reach his ceiling, he’ll need to throw more strikes. (JN)

From BP: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... he-desert/

Let’s start with the player I saw this summer who has the highest (and realistically most attainable) floor of all non-rehab players in the ACL. Hyun-Seok Jang is a 20-year old right-handed starting pitcher from South Korea, who signed for $800,000 last summer. He’s in his first U.S. pro season and was easily the most impressive piece the Dodgers have in Arizona (from what I’ve seen). He looks like he could be less than 2 years from the bigs. The fastball was 95-96 mph, very firm with serious hop. It explodes out of his hands and really carries at the plate. Jang wasn’t able to command the heater to the spots he wants quite yet, but he’s throwing it for strikes regularly. The slider was 83-86 mph with two-plane movement and a lot of tilt. It’s a knee-buckler that freezes guys, getting swings and misses both in the zone and below it. He knows how to add and subtract from it. The changeup was just as impressive as the slider, running 85-87 and generating a ton of swings and misses, acting like a screwball at times. It’s already flashing plus, and it’s not fair that he’s throwing it to these poor teenage ACL hitters. Overall, his stuff is just way too good for the level. He’s going to have three or four plus pitches (if you count his two FBs as separate pitches), pitches with excellent tenacity, and he’s a good athlete off the mound. The only drawback I saw was his delivery can be somewhat violent. Other concerns: He’s had some injury concerns in the past as an amateur, and I don’t think his sinker is as good as his four-seam. Other than that, kudos to the Dodgers for signing, for just $800K, an arm who would be a first or second-round pick if he were in the US draft last year.

From FG: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/lets-talk ... -pitchers/

Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL

Schwellenbach was the least heralded prospect of the trio, though still ranked 70th overall. His scouting grades are mixed, featuring above average fastball and slider grades, a meh curveball, average cutter, and a potentially good splitter, with acceptable command. I have no idea if that mix of grades should produce a high strikeout rate pitcher or not.

As usual, the answer is somewhere in the middle, though Schwellenbach’s strikeout rates have been up and down. It’s interesting that he only posted a 19.6% mark during his debut in Single-A last year, but he’s been at 26% and higher at every level since. What’s also interesting is that he skipped Triple-A and vaulted to the Majors after having pitched just 13 innings at Double-A. So it was a real mystery how he would perform in the Majors after so little upper minors experience.

So far, he has certainly held his own from a results perspective, and those results should perhaps be significantly better. He’s struck out 26.7% of opposing batters and that’s supported by the highest CSW% of the trio, though his SwStk% falls in between Skenes and Birdsong. That CSW% makes me more confident he could maintain that strikeout rate.

He has showcased a six pitch mix(!) that includes a four-seamer that averages just under 96 MPH. He has actually spread out the usage of his pitches amazingly well, as the usage range sits between a low of 9.1% and a high of just 24.6%. I’ve never seen a range that tight! It means that hitters really don’t know what’s coming next.

Four of his six pitches sport a SwStk% in double digits. Wanna hear what his best whiff pitch has been…by far? That “potentially good” splitter that received a 45/60 grade! Guess it has become a 60, or higher, overnight. The pitch sports an absolute elite 27.7% SwStk%, while his next best pitch has been his curveball at 15.6%. The sinker stinks at just 4.5% and has allowed his highest LD% at 40%. If it’s not inducing a massive GB%, it might be time to just ditch the pitch.

In addition to his embarrassing array of pitches, his control has been sterling. His strike rate sits at just over 70%, versus a 64.3% league average, which is amazingly impressive for a rookie. All those strikes have led to a microscopic 3.8% walk rate. So he features a fantastic repertoire and displays pinpoint control?!

It’s clear that Schwellenbach has been mighty impressive, but his ERA is the worst of the bunch at just over 4.00. Yet, both his SIERA and xERA sit at exactly 3.19, so it would seem that he’s deserving of better results. It’s not clear from the luck metrics though as everything looks more or less normal.

Just like any rookie pitcher, and any pitcher with a sub-4% walk rate, the odds are the underlying skills move in the wrong direction. It’s very difficult to maintain such a strong walk rate, and despite his vast arsenal, it’s possible hitters start adjusting and his SwStk% and strikeout rate drop, especially if hitters start laying off that splitter. But so far, so good.

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-r ... e-coverage

7. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, ATL (previously unranked): As the second starting pitcher to crack the list, Schwellenbach has stepped up for an injured Braves rotation. The 24-year-old struck out 33 batters while issuing just one walk over 33 innings spanning five starts. His outright dominant stretch with a 2.45 ERA and a rookie starter's best 0.79 WHIP slotted him behind a group of sluggers, but the 2021 second-rounder's efficiency shouldn't be overlooked.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... d-seasons/

Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves
The last time a Braves rookie pitcher named Spencer burst onto the scene midseason, it worked out quite well.

While Strider is currently sidelined with a torn UCL, Schwellenbach has stepped up to help fill a huge void in Atlanta’s rotation.

Since his May 29 debut, the 24-year-old has recorded a 4.04 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP, a 3.19 xFIP and a 70:10 K:BB in 64.2 innings.

He’s been even better of late. Since the calendar flipped to July, Schwellenbach has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, a 2.55 xFIP and an incredible 38:1 K:BB in 33 innings.

Here are his league-wide ranks since his first start of July:


For context, his 29.8 K-BB% barely trails Nick Pivetta for the MLB lead during this time. It’s also well ahead of fellow rookie Paul Skenes’ 22.2% mark over that span. While Skenes has the better K-BB% for the season and remains deserving of NL ROY honors, it’s impressive that Schwellenbach keeps getting better with more experience.

He recently became the first rookie in the modern era to strike out eight or more batters without allowing a walk in three straight starts.

As noted in our June 2024 Top 100 update, Schwellenbach has little recent experience as a pitcher. He focused on shortstop while at Nebraska, though he also displayed upper-90s velocity as the team’s closer. He needed Tommy John surgery after being drafted in 2021 and didn’t return until last season.

Although Schwellenbach’s lack of a track record could be concerning, it also speaks to his upside. He pitches for a well-regarded organization and throws six pitches at least 9% of the time. His fastball sits at 96 mph, and his slider has a 112 Stuff+. Additionally, Schwellenbach has the second-lowest ball percentage among all starters with at least 60 IP this year. It’s a formula that becomes hard to poke holes in the more one dives in.

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-prospe ... e-coverage

Royals: Asbel Gonzalez, OF
Signed for only $157,500 out of Venezuela in January 2023, Gonzalez has taken off in his first stateside season with a .285 average, .398 OBP and 22 steals in 41 games in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League. The 18-year-old’s speed and defense have impressed Kansas City officials most, and his ability to track down balls in center should keep him in that valuable position as he sets his sights on full-season ball next spring.

Tigers: Jaden Hamm, RHP
Hamm leads High-A qualifiers with a 31.6 percent strikeout rate and ranks fourth at the level with a 2.45 ERA over 84 1/3 innings for West Michigan. The 2023 fifth-rounder’s 92-95 mph fastball features a ton of ride up in the zone, and that’s been his best pitch. He’ll also show an above-average curveball that dives below bats. He’s gone deeper than five innings only once this summer as Detroit keeps him reeled in, but the building blocks are there for a potential Major League starter.

From BA:https://www.baseballamerica.com/mlb-prospects-wire/

Royals’ Gavin Cross Hits Pair of Home Runs
Double-A Northwest Arkansas outfielder Gavin Cross went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs in Northwest Arkansas’ 8-7 loss to Amarillo on Thursday. It was the second multi-home run game of Cross’ pro career, and his first in just under two years–Cross had homered twice for Low-A Columbia on Aug. 17, 2022. Cross’ 2023 season was derailed by Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, but this year, he’s regained his strength. Cross is hitting .275/.356/.437 with 12 home runs and 23 steals (in 25 attempts) for the Naturals.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -for-2024/

6. Hyun-Seok Jang, RHP, Dodgers
Age: 20 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-4 Wt: 2020 Acquired: South Korea, 2023

When the Dodgers traded Rookie-level righthanders Aldrin Batista and Maximo Martinez to the White Sox last summer, they received international slot money in return. They used that money to sign Jang, who was in play to be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming Korean Baseball Organization draft. In terms of pure stuff, Jang was the unquestioned best pitching prospect in the league. He works with four potentially-plus pitches, including a mid-90s fastball that reaches 98 mph, a top-down curveball, a slicing slider and a profoundly filthy split-changeup. When his delivery is in sync—as was the case in the ACL championship series, when his first eight outs came on strikes—he’s untouchable. There’s a long way to go to get to that point, however, and there might be plenty of bumps in the road along the way. If it works out, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, he could at least be a reliever whose entrance signals an opponent’s endgame.

14. Ramon Ramirez, C, Royals
Age: 19 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-0 Wt: 180 Acquired: Venezuela, 2023

The Royals showed their faith in Ramirez last fall when they made him one of a few DSL players to come stateside for instructional league. He faced some resistance in Arizona, but at his best, he showed the makings of an offensive-minded backstop. Ramirez is physically strong with solid-average bat speed, and he easily fits the mold of a player with a power-over-hit profile. He’s a bottom-of-the-scale runner. Defensively, he shows plus arm strength and soft hands, but there’s a long way to go before evaluators are convinced he can stick behind the plate. If he can make those strides, his prospect stock will increase immensely.

From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... les-em-up/

Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals (Triple-A Rochester): 2-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI.
August started cold for House but he’s begun to heat up recently, smashing three home runs in the last three days. There has been an adjustment period this year in the upper minors with the swing decisions taking a step back against the more advanced pitching of Double and Triple-A. However, House is still just 22 and with some continued adjustments should be able to tap more into the plus raw power and become a middle-of-the-order run producer for the Nats.

From BA's Sept. Top 100: https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... prospects/

15. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
20. Andrew Painter, RHP
49. Jeferson Quero, C
54. Owen Caissie, OF
82. Brady House, 3B
95. Jaden Hamm, RHP

From FG's Sunday Notes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-note ... draft-gem/

Jaden Hamm was surprised when he was selected by the Detroit Tigers in last year’s draft. That it happened in the fifth round wasn’t unexpected — he’d been projected to go in the three-to-five range — but the organization he would soon ink a professional contract with certainly was. The right-hander out of Middle Tennessee State explained it this way when I talked to him prior to a game at West Michigan’s LMCU Ballpark last month:

“I get a call [from my agent] and he’s like, ‘The Tigers are you taking you in the fifth,’” Hamm recalled. “ I was like, ‘What?’ He was like, ‘The Tigers.’ I was like, ‘I know who you said, but I didn’t expect that.’”

Subterfuge played a role in the surprise. Hamm had talked to Detroit’s area scout only a handful of times during his junior season, and while he went to the draft combine and had meetings with teams. the Tigers weren’t one of them. His best guess was that he was going to be drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, or Houston Astros. That none of them — nor any other team — pulled the trigger in time has turned out well for the Tabbies. Hamm has emerged as the second-best pitching prospect in Detroit’s system, behind only shooting star Jackson Jobe.

The numbers tell a big part of the story. In 99 innings with West Michigan, the 22-year-old (as of earlier this week) Hamm has overpowered High-A hitters to the tune of a 2.64 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 30.6% strikeout rate, and just 73 hits allowed.

Another part of the story are Hamm’s metrics, which include 20-21 inches of vertical ride on his low-to-mid 90s four-seamer. Learning how best to employ his heater is yet another part of how he’s gone from relatively unknown to a breakout prospect.

“I kind of knew what it was doing in college, but I’d always been taught to throw it at the knees, fastball at the knees,” explained Hamm, whom Baseball America recently added to their Top 100. “When I’d do that it would be riding to belt high. I wouldn’t [throw it up in the zone] with any intent. The catchers would always say it had some hop, and we had TrackMan, but I was at a mid-major and we didn’t really dive into the metrics. It was more like, ‘Throw your stuff in the zone and just try to get outs.’”

A spiked curveball is the righty’s go-to secondary. A 12-6 that he delivers from straight over the top — “I’m like a 6’5” release” — it serves as a good complement to his elevated heaters. Hamm volunteered that if he were to write a scouting report on himself, he’d be “a north-south guy” who occasionally throws a changeup or a slider.

The slider is new this season, while yet another pitch was tinkered with but subsequently scrapped. Hamm worked on a sweeper during his draft year — “it was coming up as the next cool thing” — but because it was too easy for hitters to recognize, he wasn’t getting many swings-and-misses on it. Going back to featuring his one-two combination not only got the whiffs back, it helped jump-start his appeal to scouting departments — one in particular.

“I started throwing the 12-6 more often and began getting more swings-and-misses, more rollovers, and stuff like that,” said Hamm. “I stuck with that the second half of my junior year, and that’s kind of when I flipped the script and kind of powered through and ended up finishing really well going into the draft.”

Again, one team in particular was captivated by the potential in Hamm’s north-south arsenal. Now that he’s adding an east-west weapon — his gyro-ish slider has been coming along well — the ceiling is even higher.

From BP's MMTP: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... as-ranger/

Brody Hopkins, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (High-A Bowling Green)
The Rays’ lower-minors affiliates have been interesting to follow during the past month or so, thanks in large part to their moderate but highly-active deadline sell-off. One of the major moves was dealing Randy Arozarena to the Mariners for a return that was initially at least vaguely controversial. I caught outfielder Aidan Smith with Low-A Charleston last month, and this past week I got a live look at the other half of that haul. Smith seems the more prospective of the two prospects–-a talented athlete banking on future hit tool development—with Hopkins being the safer bet to be a big-league contributor in some form.

A sixth-round pick in 2023, the 6-foot-4 Hopkins begins his motion on the first-base side of the rubber with a brief rocking gather resembling Luke Weaver’s and proceeds to step over to the third base side while showing his shoulder to the batter, finishing out of a sidearm slot. Hopkins’ long-legged athleticism enables him to be a consistent strike-thrower with this deceptive and mostly clean delivery. The 22-year-old has more control than command at present, meaning that his really good stuff—led by a 94-96 mph fastball that regularly gets up to 97-98 and a potential double-plus sweeping slider—does not always produce the dominance one might expect from it against his current level of competition. Hopkins posted a 2.90 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 83 ⅔ innings for Low-A Modesto prior to the trade, and currently sports a 3.45 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 31 ⅓ innings in the Sally League. The sweeper consistently has opposing hitters tied up in knots, but the fastball can get hit when left lower in the zone or closer to the middle. Some command refinement would solidify him as a legitimate starter prospect, but Hopkins is already rapidly approaching a floor outcome of good big-league relief arm. —Ben Spanier

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/emmanuel-rodri ... e-coverage

There’s aggressively introducing yourself at a new level and then there’s what Emmanuel Rodriguez did on Saturday night.

MLB’s No. 21 prospect didn't just hit his first Triple-A homer -- he raced around the bases for an inside-the-park grand slam, marking his first roundtripper for the St. Paul Saints in their 8-6 victory against Iowa at CHS Field.

Entering his fourth game at the Triple-A level on Saturday, the Twins' No. 3 prospect had only collected one hit, one RBI and reached base safely four times, but he was succeeding in other areas, like adjusting to life in St. Paul.

“It's really good to be here around guys who have had a lot of experience,” said Rodriguez via pitching coach Dan Urbina, who served as his interpreter. “[I’ve] been adapting to the league and making adjustments day by day.”

After striking out in the first inning, the 21-year-old approached the plate in the second with the bases loaded. On a 2-1 changeup offered by Trey Supak (Cubs), he drilled the ball at 100.8 mph towards the right-center-field wall. As the ball landed on the warning track, Rodriguez hustled around the bases to score, alongside Rylan Bannon, Peyton Eeles and Diego A. Castillo.

The four RBIs he plated marked a season high -- last reaching the feat on Sept. 20, 2023, with the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. He reached base twice later in the game on a pair of walks.

"[I’m] always thinking of like a ‘big hustle,’” said Rodriguez. “ never expected that's going to happen, but that's [my] style -- 'play hard, run fast.'"

Despite battling injuries throughout the season, baseball’s seventh-ranked outfield prospect had put on a strong showing before his promotion. Through 37 games at Double-A, Rodriguez slashed .298/.479/.621 with a 1.100 OPS with eight home runs.

As the 2024 season begins to come to an end, Rodriguez has solidified his place as a key player in the Twins' organization, a key cog for a system that was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 2 overall group in the Majors moving forward.

From BA's Statcast Standouts: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... uts-sep-9/

Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Twins
Adam Dunn with speed.

Through Saturday, Rodriguez has six walks in just four games to go with a chase rate of 11.8% and a zone swing rate that’s close to average at 63%. It’s a tiny sample, but given what he’s demonstrated throughout his career, there’s substantial data to suggest that he’ll continue along this path.

That’s the Adam Dunn 2.0 part. Here’s the speed:

Emmanuel Rodriguez with an inside-the-park GRAND SLAM for his first Triple-A HR#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/UBhAGY7z5A

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) September 8, 2024
I’ve been comparing Em-Rod to Dunn for quite some time, and I find him fascinating. He’ll likely feature prominently in this series as we close out the minor league seasons.

From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-9-10-24/

16. Juan Brito, 2B/SS, Guardians
Team: Triple-A Columbus (International)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .280/.357/.720 (7-for-25) 5 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 SO, 1 SB

The Scoop: Brito has quietly had a very solid season. His 21 home runs are easily a career high, and his 35 doubles and 56 extra-base hits are both sixth most in the minors. His 84 walks are ninth most in the minors. Brito, however, may be auditioning for a spot on someone else’s big league roster as much as Cleveland’s, as Jose Ramirez is a fixture at third base and second baseman Andres Gimenez is under contract for the next five years. But he’s a 22-year-old who has had a solid season in Triple-A. Keep an eye on him. (JC)

Brom BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... prospects/

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles (Double-A Bowie): 2-4, 3 R, HR, RBI, BB, SB.
Game-changing speed and an excellent glove in center field give Bradfield a high prospect floor, but he’s shown this season there might be more in the profile. Since being promoted to the Eastern League in mid-August, he’s posted a solid .282/.384/.412 slashline in 22 games. If the offensive improvements continue into next season, Bradfield could be inching his way closer to an everyday role in the Baltimore outfield.

Liover Peguero, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis): 3-5, R, 2B, 3B, RBI.

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ressed-us/

Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays (from Mariners)
In the spring, scouts identified Hopkins as one of the more intriguing players on the backfields. As it turns out, the Rays felt the same way. They made him part of package they received from Seattle in exchange for outfielder Randy Arozarena. Since arriving in the Tampa Bay system, Hopkins has continued to thrive. He moved up a level from Low-A to High-A and has continued to dominate. In seven starts with Bowling Green, Hopkins has gone 1-3 with a 3.45 era, 38 strikeouts and 13 walks in 31.1 innings. In all, Hopkins finished his first pro season with 133 strikeouts over 115 frames between the levels.

From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-9-17-24/

8. Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Orioles
Team: Double-A Bowie (Eastern)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .350/.480/.500 (7-for-20) 7 R, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 SO, 4 SB, 1 CS

The Scoop: Bradfield has been exactly as advertised as a pro: He’s a speedster whose 74 steals are second best in the minors, and he’s proven to be a capable hitter, too. Combine that with his defense in center field, and Bradfield should be working into the Orioles’ big league discussions at some point next year. He’s a very different outfielder than most of the Orioles’ outfield candidates, which should make those discussions even more interesting. (JC)

From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... r-17-2024/

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Atlanta Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.
One of the hottest pitchers during the first half of the season, Waldrep got knocked around during his brief big-league stint and hasn’t looked the same since. He hit the injured list after his second start in Atlanta with elbow inflammation and has seen the command waver since his return in late July. Waldrep’s quality start on Tuesday evening is a promising sign that one of the top young arms in the organization can return to full strength in 2025.

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/phillies- ... e-coverage


SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- In many ways, Glendale’s starter Thursday was the old Andrew Painter, the one who posted a zero in 11 of his 22 appearances and finished with a 1.56 ERA across three levels during a legendary 2022 run.

In other ways, it was a new Painter. Sure, he’s a hurler still building up following 2023 Tommy John surgery. That much we knew. But with every passing outing, the No. 32 overall prospect is showing off an adjusted arsenal that is already paying dividends in the Arizona Fall League.

Painter allowed only one hit while striking out three over three scoreless innings in Glendale’s 9-6 win over Salt River at Salt River Fields. It was the 6-foot-7 right-hander’s first zero-laden outing in a competitive environment since Sept. 9, 2022, at Double-A Reading, and his third fall start marked the longest outing of his stint in the desert -- topping the two frames he posted in his previous two starts. Twenty-six of his 32 pitches went for strikes.

The 22-year-old touched 99.2 mph and averaged 97.1 mph with his 19 heaters, up a tick from his 96.8 average in his previous Desert Dogs outing on June 18. Painter also spun six curveballs in the 80-82 mph range, giving him an option in the lower zone that complemented the rising fastball -- and he didn’t need his changeup with eight righty hitters in the Rafters lineup.

But there's also a relatively new pitch in Painter's repertoire that has piqued interest in Arizona -- a sharp upper-80s offering that needs some clarification on its classification.

“It's a slider,” Painter said. “It’s the same pitch, same grip, just a different thought process. One of them, the slower one, is for a strike most of the time. When I get to two strikes, it's the same grip, but I'm just thinking to go gloveside away to a righty and in on a lefty. I'm just thinking more heater with it. Same grip though.”

Painter started using a harder breaking ball during 2023 Spring Training that had many buzzing about him possibly making the Major League Opening Day roster at just 19. Scott Kingery was quoted in The Athletic at the time, saying he didn’t know Painter threw a cutter. As it turns out, that wasn’t truly the case.

Painter was working with two slider types -- one in the upper 80s that bit hard and another in the low 80s with more sweep. Following the top Phillies pitching prospect's rehab work, the sweeper has been left behind.

“That’s no longer in the arsenal,” he said.

The initial elbow issue that placed Painter on the injured list in the spring of 2023, the eventual TJ surgery that July and the lengthy return process all made developing a still relatively new pitch more difficult, heightening his anticipation to get that slider into true game action.

“It was honestly really good early on throughout mound work, and then kind of hit some hiccups along the way of questioning it,” Painter said. “I'd be overthinking grips. I just had to trust it and roll with it. I was on a backfield, a couple live BPs, so there wasn't really all the pressure in the world to get it right then. I try to build off everything and learn from that, go back and look at the video and see what I like.”

First, it came in the upper 80s, giving him a bridge offering between his high-90s fastball and low-90s breaking ball. Second, the movement profile -- typically around 6-10 inches horizontally with an induced vertical break in the 0-5 range -- seemed like a good fit.

“We're looking for hard and late,” Painter said. “Something that doesn't pop out of the hand as much, looks more like a heater and tunnels heater for 50 feet.”

Salt River had fits with Painter’s seven cutters, which ranged from 85.7 mph to 89.8, on Thursday. Four of the offerings landed for called strikes, with another landing as a swing-and-miss. Only one was put into play, and that was an easy 0-2 flyout by Garrett Martin (Yankees) that left the bat at just 81.7 mph in the third inning.

Jordan Dissin worked behind the plate with his fellow Phillies prospect for the second time in Painter’s three AFL starts. Painter's elbow concerns and surgery meant the 2022 12th-rounder had yet to work with the righty in a game setting before heading to Glendale. But Dissin knew enough to have an idea of what to expect from one of the game’s best pitching prodigies -- more zeros like Thursday’s outing.

“That's Andrew Painter,” Dissin said. “That's who he is. That's nothing less than what I expect to happen every time that I catch him.”

Through three starts, Painter has allowed three earned runs over seven innings. He’s fanned seven and walked only one in that span, throwing 70 of 94 total pitches for strikes. He’s expanding his workload slightly with plans of hitting 20 innings before the Fall League is out, and an expanded arsenal should lead to more scoreless frames.

“If he can have the stuff he had today for six innings,” Dissin said, “I think a lot of people are going to be happy.”

From BA's AFL Hot Sheet - Week 5: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... es-week-5/

6. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies

Team: Glendale
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
The Scoop: After two years of rehab, Painter re-emerged in the Fall League as the same top-shelf prospect he showed in 2022, when he jumped from Low-A to Double-A in his first full season as a pro. His arsenal is still sharp enough to julienne the finest prospects in the sport, and he’s struck out a dozen and walked two over 13 AFL frames. His upside is as high as any pitcher to come through the minors in at least the last decade, and Painter could make his big league debut as soon as this coming season if everything goes to plan. (JN)

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/andrew-pa ... e-coverage


SURPRISE, Ariz. – Mission accomplished.

Andrew Painter arrived in the Arizona Fall League six weeks ago, having not pitched in game action since he sprained his elbow during a Spring Training appearance on March 1, 2023. He tried to rehab the injury before having Tommy John surgery that July, and he missed all of the past two Minor League seasons.

The Phillies made MLB's No. 32 prospect a late addition to the Glendale Desert Dogs roster just before the AFL began play, wanting him to get back on the mound before he attends Spring Training and eventually starts pushing for a big league job in 2025. He made his sixth and final start on Tuesday afternoon, setting season highs for pitches (53) and strikeouts (six in 2 2/3 innings) in a 9-5 win over the Surprise Saguaros.

“Coming in here, I just wanted to compete and get a feel for my stuff, feel confident going into ’25 and walk out healthy,” Painter said. “It felt great. You can’t simulate it in bullpens and everything back at the complex. The adrenaline kicked in and did its part. Everything felt good and I feel really good moving forward.”

Painter finished his Fall League stint with a 2.30 ERA (second-best in the league), .189 average-against and an 18/4 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings. He regained his fastball velocity and the feel for his curveball and changeup while introducing a harder slider that was his best pitch vs. the Saguaros.

The 21-year-old right-hander worked with a 94-99 mph fastball against Surprise but landed just 15 of 28 for strikes. The first three batters reached against him in the bottom of the first inning on two walks and a single by Chase DeLauter (CLE No. 2/MLB No. 41), but he escaped that jam by coaxing a sacrifice fly from Jac Caglianone (KC No. 1/MLB No. 17) on a 99-mph heater and then striking out Max Acosta (Rangers) swinging on an 83-mph curveball and Doug Hodo (Orioles) looking on a 90-mph slider.

Painter relied heavily on his breaking stuff while striking out the side in the second. He caught Milan Tolentino (Guardians) looking at a 97-mph fastball, then overmatched Austin Deming (Astros) with an 87-mph slider and Quincy Hamilton (Astros) with an 83-mph curve. He gave up another single to DeLauter with one out in the third, then finished his day by pounding Carter Jensen (KC No. 5) with fastballs and getting a called strike three on a 95-mph heater on the outside corner.

His new slider ranged from 86-92 mph, and Painter threw it 15 times, 11 for strikes. He delivered six of his seven 79-83 curveballs for strikes, including a pair of swinging Ks, and mixed in a trio of 90-mph changeups.

“I feel great about the slider,” Painter said. “Obviously, it’s a newer pitch and I feel good where we’re at with it now. I look forward to an offseason of tinkering with that.

“I feel good with all the offspeed pitches. I feel like I can land them for a strike. The fastball was kind of scattered my last two starts, but the changeup feels good and I’m throwing it in the zone and it’s been competitive for me. So I feel good about all four pitches right now.”

Though Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski already has said he expects Painter to be part of the team’s pitching staff at some point next season, Painter said he’s not thinking any further ahead than planning his offseason program. But there’s no question he has recaptured the stuff that led MLB Pipeline to rate him as the game’s best pitching prospect (and No. 6 overall) before he blew out his elbow.

DeLauter, who notched the only two hits against Painter, relished the matchup.

“He's definitely a top-notch arm,” DeLauter said. “I mean, he’s one of the best pitchers I’ve probably seen up to this point, elite stuff. There's a lot of strikes with anything he's got, so those at-bats are really fun.

“You feel very like mano-a-mano in those situations. You know he's going to bring his best stuff, you know he's going to throw it in the zone, so it's about getting a good swing off.”

From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... hrough-it/

Eduardo Rivera, LHP, Boston Red Sox (PRWL Santurce): 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K.
Rivera has become a staple of the Minor League Update during this offseason. He’s been the best pitcher in Puerto Rico, striking out 41 and allowing just three earned runs in his 24 ⅔ innings of work. A tall and physical lefty, Rivera has always been an intriguing arm, but has been held back by a lack of strike throwing ability. If the command has taken a true step forward, he might just be a fast riser in 2025.