Triple-A Oklahoma City won't go another 11 years between cycles. In fact, it didn't even go one week.
James Outman saw to that ... again.
In a season that is shaping up to be magical, the No. 13 Dodgers prospect hit for the cycle for the second time in four games and drove in five runs to power Oklahoma City past Round Rock, 17-8, at Dell Diamond. Outman completed his first cycle last Friday with a walk-off homer against El Paso.
Outman's milestone on Tuesday may not have been quite as thrilling as his initial foray in the world of cycles, but it was no less historic. With the hardest parts of his endeavor out of the way, it appeared the 25-year-old might fall short after he walked in consecutive plate appearances in the seventh and eighth innings, however a rally in the ninth provided him the opportunity.
Outman didn't miss, slicing a first-pitch single to left field that brought in two runs and made him the first professional player to cycle twice in one season since the Brewers' Christian Yelich in 2018.
The Sacramento State product kicked off his night with a three-run homer, his ninth Triple-A jack and 25th across two Minor League levels. He doubled in his next at-bat and tripled -- his fifth in 32 games with Oklahoma City after tallying one in 68 Double-A contests -- two innings later.
Thanks to an offense that collected 17 hits, Outman made the most of his last chance in the ninth.
The Redwood City, Calif., native is no stranger to eye-opening performances. Outman flirted with a cycle in his Major League debut on July 31, when he homered in his first at-bat as a big leaguer. Although his stay in Los Angeles lasted only five days and four games, he made the most of it with a .462/.563/.846 slash line in 13 at-bats.
His Minor League production has been no less impressive. The 2017 Draft pick is having his best year by far. After posting a career-high .866 OPS across two Minor League levels in 2021, Outman is sporting a .996 mark this season. He's achieved personal bests across the board, slashing .298/.398/.598 with 57 extra-base hits, 25 homers, 90 RBIs and 83 runs in 100 games with Double-A Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
Tuesday's game was the fifth in which Outman collected five or more RBIs in a game, all coming since his promotion to Triple-A. Not coincidentally, the outfielder has driven in 45 runs in 32 games he's played in the Pacific Coast League, including 16 in 10 contests this month.
He's been even hotter in the past week, going 15-for-23 (.652) with 12 extra-base hits and 18 RBIs in his previous six games.
https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-james- ... e-coverage
Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers will recall
Miguel Vargas when MLB rosters expand on September 1.
Vargas was pulled from the lineup at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and will head to New York to join the Dodgers ahead of Thursday's series finale versus the host Mets. He showed some nice flashes in his first taste of MLB action earlier this month and boasts a .304/.402/.511 slash line with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 112 games this summer at OKC. The 22-year-old can also play all over the diamond defensively.
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/ ... uel-vargas
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Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, Dodgers
Jesse Roche named Vargas a top prospect of the week just the other day. He’s held his own in the PCL all year, even if he didn’t exactly light the world on fire. That’s changed in August, with him having slashed .375/.506/.594 in 18 August contests. It’s hard to turn your eye away from any Dodger hitter at this point, so if he gets the call he could be especially useful in daily leagues where you can monitor the matchups the team is willing to let him have.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... t-week-21/
You’re probably laughing at me. Here I am, sitting here, trying to puzzle out the decision tree of the Colorado Rockies. Such an endeavor for a team that routinely signs franchise players only to alienate them, keeps pending free agents in lost seasons only to lose them for nothing, and seemingly has a bias against statistical analysis itself isn’t an organization that lends itself particularly well to Kremlinology.
And yet: in the case of
Elehuris Montero, the upside is so significant, from both an overall baseball and specifically a fantasy baseball perspective, that I found myself trodding to Citi Field, specifically the visiting clubhouse, intent upon figuring it all out: What exactly is the plan for Elehuris Montero?
Let’s start with why it should matter to the Rockies, and does matter to the fantasy baseball community writ large.
Montero was, of course, the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals, and essentially anointed as the eventual replacement for him. He’s done nothing but hit since, first to a .278/.360/.529 slash line between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, and then more of the same in 2022 — .310/.392/.541 at Triple-A.
Back in December 2021, I wrote this about the potential 2022 opportunity for Montero, compared to Brett Baty:
“Montero has been selected in eight of 26 NFC drafts so far, with an average ADP of 717 and a high ADP of 535. Their situations, though, are dramatically different. For one thing, while the Mets are clearly in win-now mode, the Rockies are … let’s just leave it at not. So the chances that Colorado will add veteran talent to block Montero are incredibly small, with only the inherent Rockies-ness of the decisions made by their front office elevating that percentage north of zero.
“Then there’s the incumbent, Ryan McMahon, who is fresh off an OPS+ season of 98, about to turn 27 in December, and capable of covering multiple positions for a team with holes. There is nothing that looks like a roadblock for Montero.”
It’s worth pointing out that none of that is any less true now. The Mets were reluctant to bring up Baty in a pennant race before injuries forced their hand, and his immediate ceiling remains a platoon mate for Eduardo Escobar.
Montero, though, is playing for a Rockies team out of contention. McMahon’s OPS+ for the season is… 97. But entering Tuesday night’s games, he’s logged just 112 plate appearances this season. He’s actually started more at first base (11 times), a position he’s only played 69 games at in the minor leagues, another 10 games at DH, and just eight starts at third. So what gives?
I asked this, though more politely, of manager Bud Black on Saturday night. How is it determined when Montero plays third, or first, or DH, or isn’t in the lineup at all?
“Well, we have two really good players,” Black said, referring to McMahon and C.J. Cron. “We have an all-star at first. And we have a, maybe not this year, but a guy who played Gold Glove defense last year at third base… Montero is a young player, 100 at-bats in the big leagues, you know, learning first base and I think now adjusting to the speed of the major league game.”
There’s nothing inherently wrong with what Black is saying here, of course. Cron was Colorado’s lone all-star. He’s signed through 2023, while McMahon is inked through 2027. But the very idea that Cron is the indispensable all-star at first base, if that is the plan, makes having Montero learning a new position, the one Cron plays, hard to fathom. If not — and this is simply a question of keeping Cron in the lineup — reps for Montero at first base with Cron occupying DH are the moves that make sense developmentally.
And as previously discussed, McMahon is an obvious contributor in a utility capacity, but if the ceiling for Montero is based on McMahon’s production whether at the place or elsewhere, the Arenado trade was a huge loss for Colorado.
I asked Montero, through a translator, if he had a preferred position. “Not at all,” Montero said. He’s excited to play whichever position gets him into the lineup. In theory, a third baseman is more valuable, of course, and the managers of the Pacific Coast League sure think he has the arm to stick at third.
To me, the bat is not a question. This is a hitter with obvious plus-plus power, and anyone who ignores that from a fantasy perspective in a Rockies player is making a massive mistake. But he was not playing everyday, even with the multiple positions available to him. Only since August 2 has Montero been a regular presence in the lineup, after a few brief shuttles back and forth from Triple-A earlier this season. Since August 2, he’s been hitting, with a .280/.299/.533 line and all four of his home runs coming in that span.
Even so, Black has some concerns about him at the plate.
“I think you look at this sample of 100 [plate appearances] you can see that there’s some power in there and I think there’s more raw power to come,” Black said. “He’s 24 years old, I don’t think he’s really gotten to his true strength yet. The league has made a little bit of adjustment now in the breaking ball, and he’s got to adjust back, he’s got to lay off that breaking ball, the chase rate is a little bit high. A major-league breaking ball is much more effective than a minor-league breaking ball. So he’s learning.”
Notably, his chase rate is out of control — his 39 percent swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone is absurdly high, compared to the league average of about 27 — but he’s not showing an inability to punish breaking balls. Just an incredibly high whiff rate on them. Add in that Montero’s resulting walk rate is extremely low, but how that is an anomaly in his professional career — he was in double digits for walk percentage at both Double-A and Triple-A last and this year — and what we’re really looking at is a guy who is dealing with pitch recognition issues. The kind of thing everyday at-bats, perhaps without throwing another position at him, might solve.
I remain bullish on Montero. My live look at him reinforced my belief in this walk rate issue as purely an adjustment to major-league pitching — I saw him work a deep count and then launch a long ball in a ninth inning at-bat, in the kind of moment the lesser hitters simply give away with his team down five runs. I watched him crush Dominican Winter League pitching last winter, and he said he expects to head back there this coming offseason. So where will the Rockies ask him to play? First base? Third base? DH, so he can focus exclusively on identifying off-speed pitches?
“Right now, the focus is just finishing strong here,” Montero said. “They haven’t talked about winter ball yet, the offseason, but I’m sure that’s going to come up.”
Hopefully, it does, and it will be a tell. In another organization, Montero would be among the most valuable dynasty players out there. But with the Rockies, you simply never know.
Even as I was writing this, Colorado announced they were promoting prospect Michael Toglia, who started at first base, moving Cron to DH for the 20th time this season. This is where, say, dealing Cron at the trade deadline and going with Toglia and Montero at the corners for two months, accumulating data and letting them both learn MLB pitching, would have been the play for many other franchises. That’s not Bud Black’s fault, of course. But Black’s inability to commit to one course or another here suggests he isn’t getting anything concrete from upper management about what the plan is. Montero was at third yesterday, Tuesday night. Does this mean the gambit of Montero at first is over?
Tune in tomorrow. The Colorado Rockies are endlessly compelling. Just not for the reasons they should be.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fant ... o-edition/