All The Guardians Trades

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Re: Detroit Dealings

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273. Marco Gonzales, Tim Hill to Pittsburgh for Eddie Rosario, Cole Ragans

Nothing to see here, just trade No. 2 of the offseason between a couple of league champions. Negotiations with JP don't tend to take a ton of time, which is a good thing. I asked him about Rosario after seeing his post and figured I could move a guy like Tim Hill. He has a good projection and isn't super old, both of which are appealing to most people. He said he'd need SP to move him and I offered Gonzales to start and Hill as a second piece. JP didn't object, so we went from there. I asked about a couple pieces and we settled on Ragans.

Rosario is no stud, but he went from being really good player to pretty bad player to postseason darling in a very short time. ZiPS treated him pretty well at .273/.310/.470 with 22 HR in 125 games. This likely will translate to VG/VG power and hopefully he keeps his VG range and EX arm in LF (would be great to know before a month into the season, Dan Szymborski, who never puts out a spreadsheet anymore). LF has been a gaping hole for me for a while. Tucker had a good projection there, but once he became a RF full time, it disappeared. I've just been using CFs or UTIL with a LF projection for a while and it's less than ideal. While I don't anticipate Rosario will win the MVP, he should be a down-order thumper who really helps the lineup and the defense. Ragans was a bit of a homer pick, as he pitched in Tallahassee in high school before getting drafted in the first round in 2016. Two Tommy Johns and a lost 2020 really has crushed him, but he got back on the mound last year, which was huge. He can hit 97 from the left side with a wicked change. His slider and curve aren't as good, but if one can be average, he may still have a chance as a starter since he's still only 24 and in AA. On a personal level, I'm rooting for him since he's a local kid.

JP picks up a couple pieces that I'm sure will help him this year. Gonzales, like Rosario, is no stud. However, he was amazing for me last year in the regular season and in the playoffs after I (re)acquired him, from Kansas City, in August. While his 2021 wasn't that great overall, he did show improvement in the second half, so even a pretty good 2022 should help his 2023 projection. Hill has been a solid, yet unspectacular, middle reliever for the last couple years. His projection is above average this year. I would suspect JP will deal them both within a short time frame, but we'll see. Maybe he'll keep them for a while. I think both give him some added depth that will come in handy one way or another.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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274. Matt McLain, Alex Ramirez, Forest Whitley and Bryce Elder to San Diego for Matthew Liberatore, Brandon Marsh, Hedbert Perez and Donavan Walton

First official trade of the IBC Cleveland Guardians and it's a big one. I sent a random message to Z telling him that I was mostly interested in Liberatore, Marsh, and Pepiot. I tossed out an offer he didn't like; he countered with an offer I didn't really like, and then we settled on this.

I acquired Liberatore in early 2020 and really regretted having to give him up in later 2020 when I moved Bauer for Giolito. So, I wanted to get him back. He's just a hugely talented lefty who I think is a #2/#3 type talent. Right now, he's on the cusp of the majors, carving through AAA at just 22. He even has a somewhat useful projection, though that's just a bonus.

Given that Z is going full rebuild, Marsh seemed like a guy I might be able to convince him to move. I think he's an everyday starter in CF or LF, which is exactly what I've been looking for. His projection isn't anything amazing this year, but he's been playing pretty well to-date. If he can reduce his strikeouts by a small portion and convert those to walks, he has the chance to be a really good player.

The latter two players in the deal were toss-ins. Walton was a ZiPS bid guy who Z pounced on and he's got a pretty nice 1.7-win projection even though he's a journeyman infielder. He actually just got dealt to the Giants, so I assume he's going to be a breakout late bloomer whom Jake Hamlin will be asking for in a matter of months. Hedbert Perez is a top 10 prospect in the Brewers system, an outfielder with huge upside, but who is very raw. Lots of possible outcomes there for a 19-year-old kid.

Z got back a lot of upside pieces. He took my newest favorite player -- Matt McLain. McLain was my first round pick at #15 who has absolutely raked as a pro. In his second year, he's now in AA and has 8 HR and 7 SB in 29 games. He's absolutely murdering balls. Speaking of murder, Alex Ramirez was the second piece. I drafted Ramirez as well -- using pick #91 in the 2019 draft -- and he has really turned it up this year. He's currently slashing .359/.395/.581 in 27 games in A ball and is now firmly in top 100 lists.

Elder I snagged from Z in a deal last year that I absolutely loved. I was surprised he started the year in the majors, but figured he'd be up at some point in 2022. I think he's a pretty decent bet to be a #4/5 type, but he should stick. The big wildcard for Z is Whitley. I gave up a lot to take a gamble on him last year once he was heading to surgery. He's on the road to recovery and has gone from FV 60 guy to FV 40/40+ guy because of the injury history. IF he can get healthy, there's monster upside here. I don't know if he'll get there, but I'm rooting for him.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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275. Hedbert Perez to Atlanta for Kyle Finnegan

When you're a last place team staring at a top 3 draft pick, you make impact moves. Enter: Kyle Finnegan. With ZiPS inexplicitly turning Diego Castillo from a 3.28 ERA closer at release to a 4.39 ERA nothing months later and James Karinchak still working back from surgery, my bullpen needed some help. Finnegan is no closer, but he's a solid 7th inning guy who can step in shortly. Perez was an addition to my last deal with San Diego and while he potentially has a huge future ahead of him, I think he'll need to get away from a 33% K rate to see it happen. Brett is in a good position to stash and wait more than I am and he's already gotten a few good prospects from me that he can do that with. I just hope Finnegan can give me some level of quality innings with his 114 ERA+, 3.81 ERA projection.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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276. Ronny Mauricio, Brandon Marsh, Nick Madrigal, Jake Junis to Los Angeles (AL) for Brandon Lowe, Jon Berti, Dillon Tate, Andrew Abbott

Pretty big trade here. I bugged Ben when he first joined the league about Lowe, but he was still analyzing his squad, so I left it alone. When he posted recently about trying to move some of his better pieces, I reengaged. While Lowe is probably still a few weeks away from returning, he will add an impact bat directly to the lineup. He projects to hit 33 HR in the sim with EX/EX power and a .502 slugging percentage. While he's been hurt in real life and struggled statistically, I think he's the 30 HR guy he turned into last year and he just hit 28 years old last week. While Lowe is the headliner, Berti and his blazing speed has boosted his IRL performance to the tune of a nearly 2-fwar infielder. He can play anywhere and looks like a really nice PH/PR option off the bench. Tate is the former top 5 pick who disappeared and emerged with Baltimore this year, posting a very nice 2.61 ERA and sub-2 BB/9 over his first 41 innings of the year. At already close to a win in value, Tate looks like a solid projection next year, while his ZiPS this year gives me a possible spot starter. Abbott is a lefty starter who was the Reds' 2nd rounder in 2021. He just keeps advancing up levels with a monster K rate and very good peripherals. Abbott just got named to the Futures Game, so he looks like a nice arm to add to the Guardians' farm system.

Ben gets the kind of return that should set him up nicely for next year and beyond. Any time you're moving the best player, you have to make up for it with the rest of the talent. While Berti, Tate, and Abbott are nice, they aren't true impact players. What Ben got back is three MLB starters in Junis, a flier of a pitcher who's had some early season success in San Francisco, Madrigal, one of the league's best hitters when healthy, and Marsh, a 24-year-old (AA level) starting for Anaheim. Madrigal's value is limited by his lack of power, but as this year's ZiPS shows, he can be a .300 hitter with good speed, which makes him a good table setter. Marsh needs to turn his past MILB successes into MLB results. His defense makes him a starter, but with some refinement, he can be a good #2 hitter. And the prize/toughest player to move is Mauricio. Like Seager before him, Mauricio was my target all the way when I took him #49 in the 2017 draft (Wander Franco went 25, DL Hall 22, Shane Baz 15, Trevor Rogers 42 that year...wow). So, for me to keep a guy at least 4 years says a lot -- I love the skills. He's a lanky SS with a ton of power, great defensive skills and the real ability to be a 30-HR shortstop in the majors. His biggest obstacle is that he's so aggressive he puts himself in bad situations. The Mets will need to develop him and while he's already in AA, he's still just 21 and hopefully can make adjustments. I think he's clearly a future MLBer, but the results may range from middle order bat to #8 hitter with big power and no bat.

If things click for Ben, he's added a lot of pieces here and with Marte and Lux already on the roster, 2B wasn't an issue for him. I think he took advantage of his depth and picked up some solid guys to help next year and beyond. For me, what I gave doesn't hurt this year and Lowe potentially adds a really nice element to the lineup once he returns this month.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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277. Adolis Garcia, Ryan Tepera, Donnie Walton to Tampa Bay for Robert Suarez, Trevor Williams, Greg Jones

After my recent post, Matt reached out about Garcia and we began working out a deal. Garcia is the headliner for him because he's in playoff contention and needed an outfielder. Garcia has one of the best outfield projections if only he hit .270. He's got VG defense with an EX arm and great speed and power. It's just that he can't hit the ball otherwise. He's one of these guys who you love to chase when he's not on your team. When he's on your team, you see the .150 average and get frustrated. But he also has some upside for next year, as he has reduced the k rate some, has improved his base running and maintained the power output.
Tepera is a so-so middle reliever with a 0.5 war projection, who adds some RP depth back in and Walton has a 1.7 war projection for little reason as a utility guy. Both are useful.

My main gets here are Suarez and Jones. Suarez is the 31-year-old who was signed by the Padres from Japan. He injured his knee and is supposed to return in a few weeks. Pre-injury, he had a 3 ERA over 23 innings with an 11k/9 IP and 5 bb/9 IP with out of whack peripherals. After ZiPS changed Diego Castillo's projection from great to trash between posting and database, bullpen has been a problem that I hope Suarez and his 3.48 ERA help solve.

Jones is a 24-year-old SS prospect in the Rays system who is largely seen as a FV 50 who can stick up the middle, whether SS or CF. He's got plus-plus speed and plus raw power, though he has been slowed by injuries. I'm not going to be the one to doubt Tampa Bay's development metrics, so I'm glad to add him to the farm, particularly after dealing my dear, dear Ronny Mauricio.

The final piece is Williams, who's just SP depth for this year and possibly a sim usable reliever after a pretty solid 55 innings so far this year in a dual SP/RP role for the Metropolitans.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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278. J.P. Crawford to Washington for Ranger Suarez

Once deemed "Maddux-esque" by Marketing Guru Brett Zalaski, Ranger Suarez is finally mine. Ian and I kicked around a couple names and then just couldn't connect for 3-4 days. When we did, this was a pretty quick deal. Ian immediately focused on Crawford, whom I love and whom I have been marketing since I picked up from Nick last year before the deadline. He's been a D-first SS, but has improved the bat this year. With a 3-win projection, he's valuable now, though has been hampered in value by those who don't appreciate VG defense at SS in DMB. That said, he's tracking about where he was last year, which should land him close to where he was last year in fWAR. For my team, he was a bench player, so while I like him, I wasn't maximizing his value on the bench. And I now have several SS options behind Seager.

Suarez is about six months younger and adds another lefty to the rotation. While his 1.36 ERA in 2021 over 106 innings was not going to be repeatable, a solid #3 SP is in the realm of possibility for Suarez. His strikeout rate is down and walks are up, so he has some things to work out. After an injury, he's back and he will provide some depth as another young pitcher in my stable of young pitchers. While I have gotten more than expected from Liberatore and Weiss so far, Suarez will allow Strahm to move back to the pen, which will help my depth.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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279. Mason Black, Guardians Pick 3 to Pittsburgh for Whit Merrifield and Evan Longoria

JP wanted a 3 for Longoria, which was fairly reasonable for some power off the bench with elite D at 3B, but I didn't really need to do that. When JP wanted a prospect for Merrifield, we added to that structure to make it a 2-2. Longoria is old and Merrifield has been sucking in real life, but they are both helpful in 2022. Longoria maintains a right handed power hitter with VG power from the left side, which replaces what Adolis Garcia was going to provide off the bench before he was dealt. Merrifield is a lot of fun to have. He'll give me VG/VG/EX speed with eligibility at five positions, average power and a .284 sim average. He'll probably slot into a leadoff spot immediately.

JP gets what will likely be draft pick #90, which he will try to maximize. But the prize here is Black. I created him when I saw what he was doing in May in A+ for San Fran, and a few short months he's shot up the prospect lists, as high as #7 on the team list. He's been mowing down hitters and so JP adds some prospect depth by moving some MLB depth. I wouldn't be shocked if JP uses said prospects to add more MLB depth, but we'll see what happens.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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280. Dillon Tate, Diego Castillo to Kansas City for Royals Draft Pick 3, Freudis Nova

I got a little depth happy this year and was carrying far too many rostered guys. Now that we're nearly in August, it was a good time to let some go. I also was able to snag Jimmy Cordero and Trevor Rosenthal, both of whom have above average projections, as free agents. This has led to a surplus of RP. So I was poking around at teams in playoff contention and asked Jason if he wanted any of my arms. He offered a 3 and a 5 for Tate and Castillo, but a 5 has no value to me in trades, so I poked around for a prospect (basically all of which are Twins) until Gudim offered up Nova. I said sure and we were done.

Castillo was painful to deal. He was a main cog in the machine that led to the 2021 championship and the Detroit/Cleveland franchise is forever grateful for his contributions. For those who don't recall, his final line -- 11-2 with 2 saves in 28 games, 22 games started, 1.36 ERA 132.2 IP, 152 K 33 BB. But DMB/ZiPS really screwed him this year. On Fangraphs, he got a stud projection: 6-4 3.23 ERA 61.1 IP 76 K 21 BB 129 ERA+ 1.1 fWAR. Upon DMB rollout, he was a complete dud: 3-3 4.38 ERA 41 IP 42 K 21 BB. He has been decent in 36.2 IP this year, so I think he could be useful in the sim next year. Tate I just got in the Lowe deal a few weeks ago. He's also 28 and is having a really nice year with a 2.35 ERA over 46 innings. The former top draftee looks poised for a solid projection in 2023.

A 3 replaces the 3 I dealt to JP and Nova is actually a fun project. He was an Astros top 10 prospect until last year, when he got a little swing happy and blew out his ACL. At that time, he still looked like a power hitting infielder with a cannon who was holding his own as a 19-year-old in full season ball. Now that he's missed 2020 due to the pandemic, got hurt last year and has been rehabbing this year, he's down a few pegs. He actually had his first rehab start in the CPX last night and he hit a HR, so that's encouraging. Fun project, so we'll see.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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281. Tigers Draft Pick 4 to Chicago (AL) for Reese McGuire

Reese McGuire is not amazing. But what he is is a left handed catcher with a VG defensive rating and a VG arm, which is exceedingly rare in DMB. Still only 27, McGuire looks like a really nice backup to d'Arnaud who can occasionally start against righties. For Jim, he's hit a respectable .234/.329/.438 in limited ABs. This gets me away from relying on Astudillo to be a catcher off the bench. Jim picks up a 4th round pick to bolster his options for the spring.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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282. Ryan Yarbrough to Kansas City for Brandon Walter

Larry and I talked about a larger deal and we may revisit it in a couple weeks, but we settled on this smaller deal for now. Yarbrough has a 2-win projection, but has been horrendous for me (3-4 5.37 ERA over 63.2 IP). So, while I envisioned he be a #5, he ended up being a mop-up guy for me. In real life, he's not much better, so I didn't feel particularly tied to him. In return, I get a guy who probably hopes to be a #5 one day soon. Walter is a rising Red Sox prospect, who grades as a FV 45 lefty 25 year old who is just now sitting in AAA. Through 50 innings (9 starts) in AA this year, he sported a 2.88 ERA/2.76 FIP/2.28 xFIP with 12.24 K/9 and 0.54 BB/9. That's all pretty magical and while he's starting for now, he could end up being a multi innings reliever with three above average pitches. Time will tell, but I have a feeling he'll be in the majors this year or next.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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283. Carter Kieboom, Jarlin Susana, Robert Gasser to San Diego for Edward Cabrera, Travis Swaggerty, Pirates Draft Pick 2

What started out as a simple ask from Z about Carter Kieboom turned into a fun, couple-day discussion and expansion into a more significant trade. During the offseason I picked up Kieboom as a buy-low option, not surrendering much that couldn't live without (including Pittsburgh's second round pick), to take a shot that a former top 25 prospect could rebound. He did not. Kieboom underwent Tommy John Surgery in May and while this may solve his ongoing elbow/arm issues, it may also just be another detour for him. I do think he can be a solid major league third baseman, so I'm wishing him the best.

The toughest piece to give up was Susana. He was my pick at #63 last year and I absolutely loved the value there. I have struck out on international arms before, but he seems to be a legit starter profile with a backup option as a big bullpen arm, but there's so much variance between now and 4 years from now. Gasser was another value pick for me last year. The Rays took him at #93, but we had a prearranged deal to trade post-draft. I loved the profile and the upside of a mid-back end starter and he has performed well as a pro. Both Susana and Gasser were pieces moved by the Padres at the deadline, which shows the demand for them.

So, given what I was giving up, I needed a headliner and I got it. Cabrera started the year as a 23-year-old and made his MLB debut at 24. He's used five pitches this year, headlined by a fastball that averages 97 MPH, but he pretty equally uses a change up, curve, slider, with an occasional sinker. He's still developing the repertoire, so there's more to come. Also as a top 25 prospect but more recently than Kieboom, I think he has the potential to be a rotation topper, if he can stay healthy. That has been a major if, but it's a major if with all pitchers.

The second piece here is Swaggerty. I agree with Z that he may end up being a very good fourth OF, but I also think he could have the skills to play up into a regular role, particularly in Pittsburgh. He has orbited the top 50 in recent years and has had a pretty solid AAA season this year, slashing .267/.345/.433 in 73 games. He was overmatched in 9 MLB plate appearances and then sent down. But ZiPS still likes him, as evidenced by a VG/AV CF profile and a 1.2 fWAR projection. So, I think he adds some nice MLB depth with a chance to be more. The Pittsburgh pick, which is likely to fall in the 56-60 range (60 likely reserved for Cleveland again), will hopefully turn into another Susana-esque pick.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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284. David Fletcher and Trevor Rosenthal to Pittsburgh for Marcell Ozuna and Marlins Draft Pick 3

JP and I chat regularly, but rarely seem to be able to get a deal done when the idea comes up. JP seemed to be hatching this idea for a while as it came out of nowhere and was oddly specific. For me, I moved two players I was actively shopping and filled a hole I was trying to fill -- right-handed power hitter. While Ozuna is not Manny Ramirez, he has a good projection that I can immediately use. He slashes .263/.333/.464 with EX/VG power and him sliding into the middle of the order allows me to move Betts out of the clean up spot and to the top of the lineup so he can better use his speed. While Yuli Gurriel has had a nice season, 9 HR for a DH isn't really great, so he's going to slide to the bench where he and Eddie Rosario provide really strong bench offense.

Fletcher has great defense up the middle, but I have Jon Berti, who fills a similar bench role for me and while Rosenthal has a monster K rate (and BB rate), he is rehabbing and looks like he could come back as a useful late innings guy this year. So, it was a little bit low risk for me and I'm sure JP has a deal in place to get an Ozuna replacement in the next few weeks, so it may be relatively low risk for him. I filled a hole and gave up guys I could give up, so that's always a good place to be.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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285. Greg Jones, Joshua Baez, and Andrew Knizner to Pittsburgh for Yasmani Grandal, PIrates Draft Pick 3

Two deals in two days for JP and I. It's usually fun trying to figure something out with JP and after seeing him deal me Ozuna and then a day later pick up Soler to upgrade Ozuna, I can only assume he has something else up his sleeve to replace Grandal. Granted, he does have a strong situation at catcher after having a very pitiful situation not very long ago, but I imagine he's getting a bat from someone.

While I generally don't love moving young prospects for older veterans, I felt like this was value too good to pass up. Grandal has a laughable 3 HR on the year with a .258 slugging percentage, so he's slightly underperforming. But the projection is really nice. His 23 HR and .373 OBP as a switch hitter is going to really play well in the middle of the lineup and his EX defense and AV arm are going to provide a defensive upgrade over d'Arnaud, who slides to the bench. Knizner/Pirates 3 were added in after the initial offer so I could build up my draft stock.

JP gets a bit of upside here. Jones has been a FV 50 guy forever and he's got tons of tools. I really liked getting him from Matt, but the fact is he's striking out at a 36% clip as a 24-year-old in AA. It's not insurmountable, as he has a little bit of power and a ton of speed, but he may end up more a super utility guy with blazing speed than a starter. Baez I really liked in the draft last year, but he hurt his wrist and is just getting back into games. Monster power, 19, St. Louis Cardinal. It made too much sense here. Knizner...Cardinal.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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Guardians wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:42 pm Monster power, 19, St. Louis Cardinal. It made too much sense here. Knizner...Cardinal.
Easy way to deal with me
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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286. Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Trevor Williams to Kansas City for J.D. Martinez

This was a weird inter-division deal with Larry essentially because he wasn't getting any responses from other owners. I had asked about Martinez previously, but we didn't really have a path to a deal. He had previously shown interest in picking up Longoria for depth, so after I picked up Ozuna and saw his post about needing some pieces to plug some gaps, I sent him a message and we talked it out from there.

Martinez is definitely the biggest name in the deal and should represent a slight bump offensively from Ozuna. While Ozuna has the ability to play the field for Larry, he was sitting at DH for me, which is where Martinez will go. The projections are close: .263/.333/.464 106 OPS+ vs. .271/.345/.482 115 OPS+. And while Martinez is showing his age with 10 HR and 49 RBI for a full-time DH, he's at least hitting .270 for the year. Ozuna, meanwhile, has a DUI hanging over his head and is hitting .216 with 20 HR. Neither situation is ideal, but Larry takes on some criminal risk. Longoria is going to fill a gap of power and elite defense at 3B, while Williams can be a swingman or an occasional starter to eat innings. Larry's pretty banged up, but he's pretty close to taking over first place. Hopefully JD can improve upon the .247 he's hitting for Larry in his return to Cleveland-Formerly-Known-As-Detroit.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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287. Edgardo Henriquez, Cleveland Draft Pick 5 to Tampa Bay for J.D. Davis

It's funny how there are certain players that you talk with certain teams about over and over again, even if you never get them. Davis is one of those guys with Matt and I. We discussed him last year and while I don't think he's a star, he's a decent power hitter. On Tuesday night, I didn't really need him, but since I had been working pretty hard to move Turner, I thought there may be a need to get a guy like him, so I took a shot.

Davis never really hit the potential the Mets thought he had, so they shipped him to San Francisco at the MLB deadline. He's got the power (.153 ISO) and plays a bunch of corner positions not very well. It's the .342 OBP and VG/VG power that I'm here for.

Henriquez is a flame-throwing righty in the Dodgers' system that Fangraphs is in love with. There's reliever risk here, but maybe a really good one. He's only 20. I tend to not use 5th round picks.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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288. Whit Merrifield, Justin Turner, Yosy Galan to New York (AL) for Yankees Draft Pick 1, Yankees Draft Pick 3, Will Bednar

To say JB emerged from the shadows to make a flurry of deals at the deadline would be an understatement. We're good friends and he has been checked out of baseball for some time. When I casually mentioned in chat that Wednesday was the trade deadline, he magically became interested in making some trades. I was shocked, but he actually did make some deals.

He apparently needed some versatility, so Merrifield was the name that seemed to make some sense. While I really loved picking up Merrifield back in July, he's checked in with a .278/.308/.380 line over 37 games for me so far. I was hoping for a better OBP in the leadoff spot and he's shown some regression in real life, though he seems a little more rejuvenated in Toronto. Turner is another veteran who I'm fond of, but who I wasn't really using. He started the year as my DH, but he struggled to hit for power and Gurriel ultimately was better. So, I didn't need two aging veteran right handed hitters on the bench and I offered both vets to JB. I also tossed in Galan, a beast of a human at 6-4 200 who has 28 HR in his first 150 professional games. Huge power, huge swing and miss, only 21.

In return, I got some nice future assets. The pick looks to be in the mid 20s of the first and third rounds and Bednar is a 2021 first rounder who hasn't been that crisp and looks like he could have some RP traits with a chance to continue starting. His brother David has had an All-Star season as a closer, but I'm hoping the younger Bednar stays on the starter track. We'll see.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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289. Blake Walston, Cole Ragans to Washington for Giovanni Gallegos, Joey Lucchesi

After the really unexpected deal with JB in the afternoon, I had zero expectations of making any other trades. I had 3-4 active discussions, but nothing particularly deep. And then I randomly messaged Ian. For context, Ian has a young kid and Ian tries to sleep (for good reason). We hadn't chatted in three weeks. I sent him a message with a random offer. And at 11:11 p.m., there he was! We tossed around a couple offers back and forth, got into some much deeper conversations about players and then circled back to this basic framework.

For a little context, we talked for probably two days at last year's deadline about Gallegos and the dude wouldn't budge. At that time, it was Mauricio or bust. So it went bust. This time, he had to have Walston, who is a guy he has wanted before. I am a huge fan of Walston's and I think he deserves to be very much a part of the top 100 conversation, as he has been. As a 21-year-old (barely) in AA, he's got an impressively consistent K rate, but a high BABIP that has led to a high ERA. He's got some things to work on, but he's also shown signs of breaking out. I drafted Walston, so I really didn't want to move him, but I also really wanted Gallegos. Ian also wanted some help in 2023, so I offered up Ragans, who has surged from AA to MLB at 24 after dominating the minors.

Gallegos is going to provide me a huge relief arm and while my pen hasn't been a huge concern, there is an opportunity for improvement. Karinchak has been great in real life and he's got a huge projection, but he's struggled a bit. Iglesias loves to pick up decisions. Robertson is old. Suarez has been a huge pickup, but since I wasn't going to be picking up a starter to replace Buehler, I wanted to beef up the pen.

The surprise get here was Lucchesi. He's coming off TJ and has been completely forgotten by Mets fans, but he was picked up from San Diego in that deal where San Diego fleeced Pittsburgh for Joe Musgrove. Then he had TJ. He went on a rehab assignment earlier this month. Still just a 29-year-old, Lucchesi has a 3.92 ERA projection, which I'd love to test out before the playoffs. Worst case scenario, he's fighting for a spot in the 2023 starting rotation.
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290. Blake Sabol, Sean Bouchard to Kansas City for Michael Brantley

The Guardians scouting team gets credit for this deal. Both players were picked up off the waiver wire exactly one week ago after looking for guys who were getting some offseason pub. Sabol looks like a strong catching prospect who has also seen some time in the outfield and at first base. He had a really nice season between AA and AAA, hitting 19 HR, stealing 10 bases and keeping his K rate manageable and walk rate up. He seems like a guy who will end up working his way into the prospect conversation this offseason, after his time in the AFL. Bouchard is a little further along, having gotten a 27-game taste of the majors in Colorado, where he hit .297/.454/.500 with a 22 percent walk rate. In AAA, he hit .300/.404/.635 with 20 HR and 12 SB. So, the question for Bouchard is whether that great offensive season translates to a usable projection in 2023. Success at the upper levels often translates to ZiPS, but no one really knows.

In return, I picked up a well-known, aging, and injury prone outfielder in Brantley. He'll be 36 in 2023 and doesn't have a contract, but the guy always has hit. The latest news I saw was that he was recovering from his right shoulder surgery and plans to be ready for spring training. Given that he throws and swings left-handed, I'm hopeful he makes good on that promise. He was having a really good season before he got hurt, hitting .288/.370/.416 with 5 home runs in 64 games. If he projects at a fraction of his .298/.350/.437 projection this year, he's going to be my leadoff hitter and starting left fielder. It's a risk, but a worthy one at this stage.
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291. Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Mitch Keller to Miami for Julio Urias, Joe Musgrove, A.J. Minter

This deal was actually worked out and pending until after the playoffs. That came fairly quickly for me, but took a little longer for Nils, so it's now officially on the books. Nils had posted before the playoffs that some down 2022 seasons seemed to be pointing him toward a bit of a reboot for 2023 to prep for 2024, so he was hunting guys who are very good but coming off down years and/or up and coming. All three he got from me qualified.

First of all, I'll say it was extremely difficult parting ways with Buehler. I have absolutely loved him since I got him from Danny almost three years ago in a blockbuster. He has an electric arm and great stuff, but it was obvious from the beginning of the season that something was wrong. When he took a long rest, it felt bad and when he was lined up to come back and didn't, I knew not only that my playoff chances were diminished, but so was his future. He's now 28 (doesn't it seem like he's only 26?!), and has had his second Tommy John Surgery. That's a bit terrifying, and while he'll come back around age 29, there's some long-term risk there. For 2024, that fits well for Nils.

Giolito is also only 28 but just had a really bizarre 2022. His fastball was down a tick and his BABIP was 70 points higher year-over-year. His walks were up and strikeouts were down and his ERA ballooned. Just a really odd year and he never seemed to improve. I think with his three year averages, he'll still have a good projection. He was tracking to be a 4-win pitcher after this season, so that may dip to 3.5 or so, but if he turns it around in 2023, he'll be a good bet to be an ace or #2.

Keller is an interesting one. He was a guy after last year that I thought was a good target as a player to stash and hope they can put up a nice season and I hit on this one. After an awful April, Keller was demoted, worked on his sinker and turned it up another level the rest of the way, turning himself into a sinkerball pitcher, averaging almost 96 MPH on his fastball and 94 on his sinker. Something clicked and I think he's really going to take off moving forward. I think his ZiPS will be moderately improved next year, but another solid year in Pittsburgh puts him on track for a big future.

So, onto the return. I think I'm definitely losing in upside/maximum output. Buehler and Giolito have both proven to be top 10 pitchers in the league and it's amazing that I've had them both (and Bieber) at the same time -- truly spoiled there. I love that Urias just hit 26 and while he might not hit the high bar of a 5-win season like Buehler or Giolito, I think he settles in as a very good #2 behind Bieber. There aren't a ton of truly dominant lefties in the league outside of a handful, so Urias is right in the mix. The fastball, curve, slider combination has worked well for him. I love him at #2.

And Musgrove will slot in at #3 after back-to-back 3.5 fWAR seasons. He's 29, so I lost a little bit of age there, but he's trending up and thriving in San Diego. He's really been a nice story of a hometown guy dealt there a couple years ago and he seems to really love playing there. So, if he ends up a as 3.5-win guy for the next three years, I'm probably losing half a win from Giolito, but if everyone stays healthy (shrug), I've gained a whole season lost to Buehler.

The final piece here is Minter. While I would have loved to have not lost a starting pitcher in the deal, the value had to work out for Nils. And while Minter is a reliever, he was insanely filthy in 2022. He actually ended up with about the same fWAR as Keller, but in only 70 innings. His 2.06 ERA, 12K/9IP, 1.93 BB/9IP and sub-3 FIP and xFIP set him up as a top 5 reliever. He could easily be my closer next year with those numbers, so we'll see what ZiPS does.

All in all, I get a healthier rotation (as of this writing), and an improved bullpen. And while I give up high-end talent and who I think is a budding starting pitcher, it felt like a move to make looking to be competitive in 2023. If Cabrera projects like I think he should and Suarez continues improving, I look like I've got a really solid rotation to try to compete with Tullar next year.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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292. Will Bednar, Yankees Draft Pick 3 to Miami for Michael Taylor

Taylor isn't my first choice for a starting centerfielder, but worst case he's a great fallback option. Guys who end up with VG/EX range and VG/EX arms in CF are always going to find a way into the sim, even if the bat is below average. This year, Taylor put together enough good games to improve on his walk rate and k rate, boosting his offense across the board. His defense remains above average. So, while I'm not done shopping for a centerfielder, Taylor represents a good depth piece.

In return, Nils gets the NY 3rd round pick, which will be late 80s, and Will Bednar, brother to David and a former first round pick. He struggles with command, but looks like a potential starter given his pitch mix. He'll be 23 and probably sent to A+ to start 2023.
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293. Kyle Finnegan, Miami Draft Pick 3 to Cincinnati for Brian Anderson

It's been a little quiet in Cleveland this offseason, but that's typical once ZiPS start rolling out. This was a random message to Ken-type trade. Anderson is no stud, but he's still only 29 and has a couple decent seasons under his belt in Miami. He's now out of Miami -- they didn't tender him a contract -- so, he's on the open market. As a guy who's battled some tough injuries the last few years and can play sound defense at 3B and RF (ZiPS had him at VG/67 at 3B and AV/145, EX in RF in 2022), he looks like the perfect bat bench/defensive replacement/occasional starter for me this year. Devers is firmly at 3B and I have two All-Star RF, but he'll get 250 AB, most likely.

In exchange, Ken gets a nice reliever in Finnegan, whom I picked up last year from Atlanta. He was supposed to be a playoff-push pickup, but he struggled badly for me, so he didn't really get much use. In real life, he shined, putting up a solid 3.51 ERA/3.22 xFIP with 11 saves for Washington, cutting down his walks quite a bit. Only 31, Finnegan looks like a nice 7th inning guy for Cincy. Ken also snagged a late 3rd round pick, which probably holds some value as long as Ken doesn't draft a real-life Red :lol:
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294. Mookie Betts, Raisel Iglesias, Brian Anderson, Travis Swaggerty, Guardians Draft Pick 1 to Minnesota for Austin Riley, Amed Rosario, Atlanta Draft Pick 1

Blockbuster Saturday Night! It's a little weird to have been looking to move a superstar player like Mookie for two years. Arguably it's even weirder that few people were interested. Perhaps it was his "off" year of only 3.8 wins in 2021 that caused concern. He came back with 6.6 wins in 2022, erasing any doubt that he's not an elite-class player. That said, I view Kyle Tucker as the future anchor of my outfield, and even though Mookie is an amazing player and should be able to qualify at RF, CF, and 2B in 2023, I wanted to see if I could find a deal that provides value and can plug other holes. This offseason, I had pretty deep talks with three teams -- one that I felt didn't provide enough value, one where the owner made an offer and then rescinded, and one that the owner thought the offer was fair but then said he didn't want to do it.

So, I had pretty much stopped trying and was just planning on going into 2023 with Betts atop the lineup when a random discussion with Jason changed things. We were talking about a smaller deal when I casually slipped in that I'd be interested in acquiring Riley. It was mainly a joke, but it spurred additional conversations about Betts. Riley nets me about five years and still gets me an elite player -- probably a top 5-10 player 25 and under. He's locked in in Atlanta, where he's had back-to-back 30+ home run seasons, with 38 in 2022. So, when you compare the first two players in the deal, it's a better 30-year-old with elite RF D, good speed, and top-tier power for a 25-year-old with better power, less D at the position and an above-average bat. I think Mookie is definitely better now, but I think Riley is better longer.

Beyond that, you get to Iglesias, who's a top-tier reliever and 32, Anderson, who was a really nice pickup from Ken a few weeks ago with the hopes he can bounce back after a couple bad seasons and tough injuries, but has shown great D and arm, and Swaggerty, who is a former top 100 prospect who has nice speed, some power, and the ability to take a walk in CF. Of those assets, I think Iglesias is the only one who truly stings, while Anderson and Swaggerty are a big speculative. On the flip side is Rosario, who just turned 27 and has replicated 2.5 win seasons as the starting SS in Cleveland after being dealt for Lindor. He slashes .285/.320/.400 pretty consistently, and while the majority of his time has been SS, he's also played some CF, which is the real fun part. CF is a position of weakness, so if he projects well there (AV/91 AV this year), he may end up starting for me. If not, he could always create an opportunity for Corey Seager to be dealt. So, I like the value he brings to me.

The last pieces were picks. Cleveland 1 is #25, which is probably a FV 45 type player, whereas Atlanta 1 is #5, which puts me in a really good spot. There should be a lot of options there and getting into the top part of a draft is very tough in this league, so I like having a fun lottery ticket to play with on top.

It's a huge one and even larger being an in-division trade. I think Jason gets a very dangerous hitter in his lineup and much improved defense after dealing out Springer, which gives him a nice core with Betts, Bogaerts, Schwarber (Sox fan much?). Meanwhile, my core of Tucker, Devers, Riley, Seager should put up some offensive battles in the ALC.
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295. Travis d'Arnaud, Minnesota Draft Pick 3 to Kansas City for Lourdes Gurriel, Jake Eder

One year and one day to the exact day, I picked up d'Arnaud in a trade with these same Kansas City Royals to be some kind of catching depth for me. I gave up Yasel Antuna and Christopher Morel (oof). And d'Arnaud had a career year in Atlanta, posting a 3.9 win season on the back of great defense, power and good average for a catcher. Entering his age 34 season, this may have been his peak year. I think he'll definitely get some kind of 2.5 win projection this year, but with Murphy in Atlanta, he probably becomes a solid backup.

My main target here was Eder, whom I was interested in from Toronto, who I think can return to top prospect status this year once he fully recovers from TJ. Some scouts thought of him as a top 100 guy and top tier pitching prospect before he blew out his elbow, so there's hope he can get back to that. Having a top notch lefty SP prospect is never a bad thing, so I'm excited to bring him in. The added bonus here was Gurriel, whom clearly ZiPS isn't enthralled with, but who still got a 106 OPS+, which should be good to start in LF until Brantley is ready to start. He got a .269/.319/.429 projection, so I think he can start and bat #8 or so. I think he's a solid value player here, especially after I moved Anderson earlier this weekend.

Larry picks up a 3rd round pick to balance the value a little. All in all, I lose a solid catcher, but get a really nice prospect and a guy who I can start right away. It adds more pressure to Grandal and McGuire to hold down the fort in 2023.
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296. Ranger Suarez, JD Martinez, Matt Strahm, Reese McGuire, Pittsburgh Draft Pick 2 to Philadelphia for Max Muncy, Zach Eflin, Alex Ramirez, Robert Gasser

Nick and I periodically talk trade and we had kicked around Strahm (former Red Sox, current Phillies) in a deal recently. I was also interested in Eflin (former Phillies and current Rays) because his Statcast data shows he had a really strong 2022, the Rays rarely miss on pitching and ZiPS loves the Rays' pitching. I think there's a chance Eflin has a strong projection.

Nick really wanted Suarez in this deal and I understand why. He's a young lefty who looks like a strong #3 starter and he had a strong showing in the playoffs this year. I'm sure Nick's interest starts with him being on Philadelphia, which is also fine. I think Suarez is a tough more valuable than Eflin, but I don't think it's a huge drop-off. I also have Urias, Lucchesi, and Liberatore as lefty starters, so I have good depth there.

I wanted to include the Martinez/Muncy piece of it. Martinez is 36 next year and while he's a professional hitter, he's on the downswing as a DH only with dwindling power. His move to LA further harmed his ZiPS this year, so he's a 109 OPS+. Muncy saves me three years and gives me someone who can play one position ok and two others maybe passably. While he managed to not hit over .200 two out of the last three years, he squeezed a monster 5-win season in between and twice before that. He had a 135 OPS+ projection last year, so despite a drop-off, I think he'll be a better option than Martienz.

The rest of the deal I love. Strahm and McGuire are role players who likely won't make a huge impact in 2023. I also give up #60, which should be a useful piece for Nick to play with. But I get Ramirez, who is a borderline top 50 prospect who has monster upside as a toolsy CF who is still only 19 and played at A+ way above his age last year, where he hit .278 and cut his K rate down 10 percent from 2021. I also re-acquired Robert Gasser, who I dealt away last year and who was a big part of the Soto-to-San Diego deal. He looks like a potential #3 lefty starter who's currently a FV 45 in the Nationals' system.

I continue to build up my farm, which was a priority coming into the season, I got younger, and I think improved my rotation a tick (maybe...time will tell). All in all, a deal I like, but I think Nick also gets some guys on his favorite team and a few pieces that can help him this season.
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