This recent trade has baseball fans in Chicago and elsewhere talking about the White Sox again. I recognize that that this trade further gutted one of the worst farm systems in baseball. I also recognize the value that Nick Swisher brings to the South Side.
There are two examples of 3 for 1 trades that really stick out in my memory. They are:
Cincinnati trades Frank Robinson to Baltimore for Milt Pappas, Dick Simpson and Jack Baldschun (1965)
- This deal became a part of a line in "Bull Durham:î ìWho can forget Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, for gosh sake?î
San Francisco trades Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to Minnesota to A.J. Pierzynski (2003)
- This has a chance to be the worst trade in baseball history.
From a White Sox perspective, which of the above trades do you believe the recent Swisher for DLS, Gio and Sweeney will be looked back on as in three years? By then we should know if the prospects pan out ... in a post this weekend I will give my assessment of this trade.
How do you view the Swisher trade?
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What about a win-win option?
Gio already has displayed big league pitches, and going to Oakland could make him an above average pitcher.
Sidenote: Say goodbye to Joe Blanton now, if the Beane thinks Gio can make the jump this season.
Gio already has displayed big league pitches, and going to Oakland could make him an above average pitcher.
Sidenote: Say goodbye to Joe Blanton now, if the Beane thinks Gio can make the jump this season.
2008-2023 Mets: 1,143-1,296...469%
2006-2008 Rockies: 242-244...498%
IBC Total: 1,385-1,540...474%
2022: lost WC
2023: lost WC
2024: 1st NL East; lost WC
2006-2008 Rockies: 242-244...498%
IBC Total: 1,385-1,540...474%
2022: lost WC
2023: lost WC
2024: 1st NL East; lost WC
A.J.
For a very simple reason. Ken Williams is not a very good GM, he's playing the part of Brian Sabean here. Billy Beane on the other hand is a very good GM with a knack for making great trades for his team and knowing when to let players walk away (or deal them off).
White Sox fans are under the impression they've got a pretty good GM because they won the series in '05. However, they forget that the '05 team was basically built around ridiculous fluke seasons by a number of starting pitchers that could not have been reasonably predicted and which they haven't repeated.
IMO, Williams got taken for a ride.
For a very simple reason. Ken Williams is not a very good GM, he's playing the part of Brian Sabean here. Billy Beane on the other hand is a very good GM with a knack for making great trades for his team and knowing when to let players walk away (or deal them off).
White Sox fans are under the impression they've got a pretty good GM because they won the series in '05. However, they forget that the '05 team was basically built around ridiculous fluke seasons by a number of starting pitchers that could not have been reasonably predicted and which they haven't repeated.
IMO, Williams got taken for a ride.
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My take on the Swisher trade ...
Not in my recent memory has a trade involving the Chicago White Sox so split the fan base and the critics as much as the recent Nick Swisher for Fautino De Los Santos (DLS), Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney trade. I admit that my immediate reaction was one of disbelief. As I view the Nick Swisher trade from the perspective of a White Sox fan, I understand there are a number of different ways to consider its relative success. Unlike many others, I also view this trade as part of a series of moves made by the team rather then simply as a solo transaction.
Much has recently been written about Swisher Ö He is a 27 year old switch hitting OF/1B who hit .262/.381/.455 with 22 HR and 78 RBI in 150 games for the Oakland Athletics in 2007. In addition to establishing a career best for BA and OBP he set career-bests for walks (100), doubles (36) and SB (3). In fact, Swisher ranked sixth in the American League in walks in 2007 and was seventh in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.25). His .458 OBP against left-handed pitchers ranked third in the league, and he batted .291 against left-handed pitching. Swisher's 22 home runs were second-highest in the AL for switch hitters, and he has now topped 20 home runs in three consecutive seasons. In 2006, when he healthier and played in a better line-up, he established career-bests with 35 HR and 95 RBI. Also of note, his BA and walk totals both have increased each of the past two seasons and SwisherÃs total of 197 walks in 2006-07 rank fourth in the AL.
His numbers will be even better in the Cell. Baseball Reference provides the following:
So with SwisherÃs trade to the White Sox, the first thing I wanted to check was neutralizing his stats to the 2007 Chicago White Sox ... It makes a big difference. He real numbers in 2007 were .262/.381/.455, giving him an .836 OPS. The adjusted numbers above suggest an .886 OPS, a 50-point bump. Also, according to his splits he killed the White Sox in 2007, with an OPS over 1.000.
(http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/513)
Certainly his former home park, McAfee Coliseum was not an easy place to hit, and Swisher's splits over the last two years bear that out:
Home: .243/.374/.455
Road: .270/.379/.491
Meanwhile at the Cell in the last two years, Swisher has been 10-for-24.
Tim Dierks, of RotoAuthority, also pointed out how the trade will aid SwisherÃs numbers:
[There] is the massive park shift Swisher just enjoyed. McAfee Coliseum deflates HRs by 15% according to the Bill James Handbook. U.S. Cellular inflates them by 30%. This could result in a 20% increase in overall home run output. 27 becomes 32, 35 becomes 42. I think he's a legitimate 40 HR threat now, having hit 35 in '06.
(http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/01/ni ... er-pr.html)
Swisher played 59 games in CF next year and I expect, barring a trade of Paul Konerko, he will play most of his games for the 2008 White Sox there between Jermaine Dye in RF and newly acquired Carlos Quentin in LF. At this point in time it is expected that he will bat 2nd behind newly acquired Orlando Cabrera and in front of Konerko, Jim Thome, Dye, Josh Fields, Quentin, A.J. Pierzynski and Danny Richar. He will be an improvement in an improved line-up.
The White Sox major league starting pitching in 2008 is no worse after the Swisher trade then it was before this trade. None of the prospects involved in this trade would have been significant contributors to the White Sox pitching in 2008. I expect that Joe Crede will be traded for someone like Chris Capuano or Dave Bush. Perhaps Juan Urbie, with the return of Pablo Ozuna and the signing of Cuban player Alexei Ramirez will stay get traded for another bottom of the order SP out of options like JP Howell. I do not believe that the White Sox are done. Regardless Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez anchor the SP with Jose Contreras hopefully bouncing back and John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jack Egbert (very underrated prospect), Charlie Haeger and Lance Broadway all advancing from the minors.
Have the White Sox made a poor farm system even worse through this trade and a few prior trades ñ hell yes. Trading DLS is, for me, the most frightening part of this trade. If his one year of brilliance continues he appears to be capable of being the top-flite prospect that many pundits ñ and I - perceive him to be. But DLS is years away. Gonzalez had a terrific year repeating AA posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and leading the minors in strikeouts (185 in 150 innings). But he has a track record of being a fly ball pitcher and I am not convinced that his success would have been repeated at Charlotte or in the Cell. The White Sox AA team plays in a spacious park in Birmingham. Sweeney needed to switch organizations as he had reached his peak within the White Sox organization. Whether this is because he has been mishandled or because he was over rated is something we may now find out but the truth is he was going to be no more then a 4/5 OF with the White Sox.
If these moves do not result in a competitive product on the field in 2008 then the White Sox can unfurl a series of ìWhite Flagî trades to restock their minor league system. They have done it before (In 1997 while trailing the Indians by just 3.5 games the White Sox made a trade that convinced fans they were giving up. Known as the "White Flag Trade", the Sox sent SP Wilson Alvarez, SP Danny Darwin, and CL Roberto Hernandez to the Giants for 6 minor league prospects. At the time White Sox fans were upset ñ particularly when the White Sox ended up finishing only 6 games behind the Indians. But of the 6 players acquired by the Sox, 5 reached the majors and 3 made significant impacts with the club. Bob Howry saved 49 games for the Sox over the next 5 seasons. Keith Foulke had the greatest impact, earning 100 saves with the White Sox as their CL until he moved on. SS Mike Caruso was a starter for the 1998 team hitting .308 ñ but he was a terrible fielder and didnÃt last long.) and the Athletics are doing it now.
According to CotÃs, Swisher has a very realistic contract at 5 years for 26.75 million for 2007 through 2011 with a $10.25 million club option in 2012 ($1 million buyout) which increases to $12.00 million with a top 5 finish by Swisher in the MVP vote any year between 2007 ñ 2011. He is part of a solid core of signed young players including Buehrle, Bobby Jenks, Fields, Quentin, and Scott Linebrink ñ maybe Richar. I would think any or all of them could be traded at a later date to restock the minors if there is a change in plans.
Finally, if you have stuck with me this long, Kenny Williams deserves credit for making this trade. He kept his word by going out and getting another OBP player who is solid motivating clubhouse presence ñ a leader. It is good to have the Kenny I trust back. As Greg Couch from the Chicago Sun Times wrote:
It's nice to see the old hungry, desperate Williams again, the guy who was always willing to risk looking stupid for a chance to win now. Frankly, I always respected him for that. For the last few years, we've seen only the I'm-a-genius Williams while the Sox were winning the World Series, then the defensive I-have-a-plan-but-don't-ask-me-what-it-is (because he doesn't know) Williams while the Sox were collapsing.
As Kenny himself said, ì''From the day I was assigned this position, we had been in a win mode. We're going to worry about winning a championship in '08 before we worry about winning a championship in the 2010, 2011 season. Who helps us toward the goal of winning a championship in the immediate future? Well, that answer is Nick Swisher right now over the kids.î
I do not believe this is the final move for the season --- and I am glad to see a fired up Kenny Williams overcoming earlier setbacks. The White Sox paid a big price to obtain Swisher Ö no doubt about it. Swisher, Cabrera, Quentin, Ramirez, and Linebrink all are upgrades over Jerry Owens, Urbie (and he is an upgrade over Andy Gonzalez as the teamÃs 25th man), Scott Podsednik, Alex Cintron and Ryan Bukich.
As one commenter wrote, ìThe good news is that he acquired a high-quality talent, one that doesn't require grooming, projecting or crossing fingers. It's not the whoppers that have gotten Williams in trouble (Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik). The "safe," timid moves have screwed him over, instead. Trading two top prospects for Swisher is by no means safe -- and that could be great news.î
Today there is talk of a Konerko for Chone Figgins exchange moving Swisher to 1B and Figgins to CF ... Kenny is not done.
Much has recently been written about Swisher Ö He is a 27 year old switch hitting OF/1B who hit .262/.381/.455 with 22 HR and 78 RBI in 150 games for the Oakland Athletics in 2007. In addition to establishing a career best for BA and OBP he set career-bests for walks (100), doubles (36) and SB (3). In fact, Swisher ranked sixth in the American League in walks in 2007 and was seventh in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.25). His .458 OBP against left-handed pitchers ranked third in the league, and he batted .291 against left-handed pitching. Swisher's 22 home runs were second-highest in the AL for switch hitters, and he has now topped 20 home runs in three consecutive seasons. In 2006, when he healthier and played in a better line-up, he established career-bests with 35 HR and 95 RBI. Also of note, his BA and walk totals both have increased each of the past two seasons and SwisherÃs total of 197 walks in 2006-07 rank fourth in the AL.
His numbers will be even better in the Cell. Baseball Reference provides the following:
So with SwisherÃs trade to the White Sox, the first thing I wanted to check was neutralizing his stats to the 2007 Chicago White Sox ... It makes a big difference. He real numbers in 2007 were .262/.381/.455, giving him an .836 OPS. The adjusted numbers above suggest an .886 OPS, a 50-point bump. Also, according to his splits he killed the White Sox in 2007, with an OPS over 1.000.
(http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/513)
Certainly his former home park, McAfee Coliseum was not an easy place to hit, and Swisher's splits over the last two years bear that out:
Home: .243/.374/.455
Road: .270/.379/.491
Meanwhile at the Cell in the last two years, Swisher has been 10-for-24.
Tim Dierks, of RotoAuthority, also pointed out how the trade will aid SwisherÃs numbers:
[There] is the massive park shift Swisher just enjoyed. McAfee Coliseum deflates HRs by 15% according to the Bill James Handbook. U.S. Cellular inflates them by 30%. This could result in a 20% increase in overall home run output. 27 becomes 32, 35 becomes 42. I think he's a legitimate 40 HR threat now, having hit 35 in '06.
(http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/01/ni ... er-pr.html)
Swisher played 59 games in CF next year and I expect, barring a trade of Paul Konerko, he will play most of his games for the 2008 White Sox there between Jermaine Dye in RF and newly acquired Carlos Quentin in LF. At this point in time it is expected that he will bat 2nd behind newly acquired Orlando Cabrera and in front of Konerko, Jim Thome, Dye, Josh Fields, Quentin, A.J. Pierzynski and Danny Richar. He will be an improvement in an improved line-up.
The White Sox major league starting pitching in 2008 is no worse after the Swisher trade then it was before this trade. None of the prospects involved in this trade would have been significant contributors to the White Sox pitching in 2008. I expect that Joe Crede will be traded for someone like Chris Capuano or Dave Bush. Perhaps Juan Urbie, with the return of Pablo Ozuna and the signing of Cuban player Alexei Ramirez will stay get traded for another bottom of the order SP out of options like JP Howell. I do not believe that the White Sox are done. Regardless Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez anchor the SP with Jose Contreras hopefully bouncing back and John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jack Egbert (very underrated prospect), Charlie Haeger and Lance Broadway all advancing from the minors.
Have the White Sox made a poor farm system even worse through this trade and a few prior trades ñ hell yes. Trading DLS is, for me, the most frightening part of this trade. If his one year of brilliance continues he appears to be capable of being the top-flite prospect that many pundits ñ and I - perceive him to be. But DLS is years away. Gonzalez had a terrific year repeating AA posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and leading the minors in strikeouts (185 in 150 innings). But he has a track record of being a fly ball pitcher and I am not convinced that his success would have been repeated at Charlotte or in the Cell. The White Sox AA team plays in a spacious park in Birmingham. Sweeney needed to switch organizations as he had reached his peak within the White Sox organization. Whether this is because he has been mishandled or because he was over rated is something we may now find out but the truth is he was going to be no more then a 4/5 OF with the White Sox.
If these moves do not result in a competitive product on the field in 2008 then the White Sox can unfurl a series of ìWhite Flagî trades to restock their minor league system. They have done it before (In 1997 while trailing the Indians by just 3.5 games the White Sox made a trade that convinced fans they were giving up. Known as the "White Flag Trade", the Sox sent SP Wilson Alvarez, SP Danny Darwin, and CL Roberto Hernandez to the Giants for 6 minor league prospects. At the time White Sox fans were upset ñ particularly when the White Sox ended up finishing only 6 games behind the Indians. But of the 6 players acquired by the Sox, 5 reached the majors and 3 made significant impacts with the club. Bob Howry saved 49 games for the Sox over the next 5 seasons. Keith Foulke had the greatest impact, earning 100 saves with the White Sox as their CL until he moved on. SS Mike Caruso was a starter for the 1998 team hitting .308 ñ but he was a terrible fielder and didnÃt last long.) and the Athletics are doing it now.
According to CotÃs, Swisher has a very realistic contract at 5 years for 26.75 million for 2007 through 2011 with a $10.25 million club option in 2012 ($1 million buyout) which increases to $12.00 million with a top 5 finish by Swisher in the MVP vote any year between 2007 ñ 2011. He is part of a solid core of signed young players including Buehrle, Bobby Jenks, Fields, Quentin, and Scott Linebrink ñ maybe Richar. I would think any or all of them could be traded at a later date to restock the minors if there is a change in plans.
Finally, if you have stuck with me this long, Kenny Williams deserves credit for making this trade. He kept his word by going out and getting another OBP player who is solid motivating clubhouse presence ñ a leader. It is good to have the Kenny I trust back. As Greg Couch from the Chicago Sun Times wrote:
It's nice to see the old hungry, desperate Williams again, the guy who was always willing to risk looking stupid for a chance to win now. Frankly, I always respected him for that. For the last few years, we've seen only the I'm-a-genius Williams while the Sox were winning the World Series, then the defensive I-have-a-plan-but-don't-ask-me-what-it-is (because he doesn't know) Williams while the Sox were collapsing.
As Kenny himself said, ì''From the day I was assigned this position, we had been in a win mode. We're going to worry about winning a championship in '08 before we worry about winning a championship in the 2010, 2011 season. Who helps us toward the goal of winning a championship in the immediate future? Well, that answer is Nick Swisher right now over the kids.î
I do not believe this is the final move for the season --- and I am glad to see a fired up Kenny Williams overcoming earlier setbacks. The White Sox paid a big price to obtain Swisher Ö no doubt about it. Swisher, Cabrera, Quentin, Ramirez, and Linebrink all are upgrades over Jerry Owens, Urbie (and he is an upgrade over Andy Gonzalez as the teamÃs 25th man), Scott Podsednik, Alex Cintron and Ryan Bukich.
As one commenter wrote, ìThe good news is that he acquired a high-quality talent, one that doesn't require grooming, projecting or crossing fingers. It's not the whoppers that have gotten Williams in trouble (Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik). The "safe," timid moves have screwed him over, instead. Trading two top prospects for Swisher is by no means safe -- and that could be great news.î
Today there is talk of a Konerko for Chone Figgins exchange moving Swisher to 1B and Figgins to CF ... Kenny is not done.
If that Konerko trade goes down that has Swisher hitting 3rd? Interesting moves all around. One angle I do appreciate about this deal along with the Garland trade is that it gives my boy Lance Broadway a shot at starting next year. Hope Swisher enjoys chasing down all the fly balls Broadway gives up.
