MLB Hot Stove Discussion

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:50 pm

Mike Lowell has reportedly agreed to a 3 year, $37.5 million deal with the Red Sox.

Eh. Ok. Will he be overpaid in year 3 (and maybe year 2)? Probably, but he'll be worth it next season - and I think they probably made the right call by not jettisoning any key pieces to last year's champion as they did (and needed to do) going into the 2005 season. Unlike that team, I like this team's chances to succeed with the same makeup. They could stand to acquire a couple more quality bullpen options (without overpaying - since RP performance is so difficult to predict year-to-year). I'm guessing Theo's "perfect world" scenario would be that by year 3 Lars Anderson's ready or near-ready to take over at 1B, with Youk shifting across the diamond to 3B to replace Lowell. They've got good SP depth after re-signing Schilling for a year. It would be nice to have Coco as a 4th OF/defensive replacement, but he might have more value in trade given the exorbitant contracts FA CFs Hunter and Rowand are likely to receive. Coco to the Twins for one of their bounty of young arms and maybe a 4th OF/AAA taxi-squad guy like Denard Span or something would be fine with me.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:53 pm

Not to say that's not a nice fantasy - but what type of Magicland are you living in where the Twins give up a quality arm and Denard Span for Coco Crisp? Is JB handling negotiations for the Sox?

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:01 pm

Span is a non-prospect at this point. He's at best a 4th OF. I'm also not talking about Swarzak or Duensing or anyone in their upper tier of arms. More like an Alex Burnett, or Kyle Waldrop or someone whose ceiling is somewhere at the back of the rotation. That's not crazy for the best defensive CF in the AL last year, especially when they're losing Hunter. Crisp is 28, signed cheaply for a few years (under $4 mil per), and had his best offensive seasons playing in the AL Central. Makes sense to me.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:02 pm

Uhm... these ARE the twins we're talking about. plus there's some MAJOR Boston/Minnesota mojo going on. Minnesota is Boston's bitch.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 1:03 pm

According to this article from the Pioneer Press, the Red Sox are leading the Santana sweepstakes. The rumored deal would have Boston sending Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie for Johan.

I hope there's some truth to this rumor. Getting Santana without having to give up Buchholz or Ellsbury would be a huge coup for the Sox.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 1:05 pm

There's no way that's true and if it is then the GM of the Twins needs to be fired ASAP.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 3:49 pm

ESPN reporting that Michael Bowden (not Masterson) is the 4th player (along w/ Lester, Crisp, Lowrie) in the Santana discussions. Sounds like the Yankees have declared Cano and Chamberlain "untouchable," and the Red Sox have indicated they're not willing to move Buchholz or Ellsbury. In Hughes, the Yankees would seem to have the best young pitcher to move for Santana. However, the Twins are also looking for young position players ready to make an impact in the next 2 years, and Boston's farm is a bit deeper at the upper levels in that respect. The other positive the Red Sox can offer is a replacement LH SP to pair with Liriano in the Twins' rotation (Lester).

I anticipated the Twins would want more than Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Bowden for Santana. However, if the two most likely trade partners, the Red Sox and Yankees, are unwilling to move Joba/Cano and Ellsbury/Buchholz, it might give Boston an edge. On the one hand, almost anybody would rather have Hughes/Melky than Lester/Crisp, but by adding in quality prospects with the potential to contribute to the big league team as early as next year (something the Yanks can't offer - at least in the same quantity as Boston), the Red Sox might be able to overcome the talent gap between the primary guys they're offering and the central guys in a Yankees deal.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:55 pm

It sounds like the Yankees may be hesitant to move Hughes as well, which is what makes Boston's offer more attractive. also, the Sox aren't unwilling to move Ellsbury or Buchholz, reportedly they're willing to move one, but not two, of Buchholz, Ellsbury and Lester... and Lester seems to be the player the twins have tagged. At least for now.
If the rumors of the Mets dangling Reyes name are true, all bets are off.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:59 pm

So I've been sitting here thinking about this whole "Johan Santana" thing. At first I was in the "Oh my God the Yanks have to get him," - I am no longer in that camp.

It feels like any move the Yanks make right now is simply itchy trigger finger. Regardless of if Pettitte re-signs, the Yanks go into next season with a rotation of Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Mussina. That's pretty goddamn good - and really young. The Yanks go into the off-season w/ an OF of Damon, Cabrera, Abreu - that's pretty goddamn good. They go in with an infield of A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, and Duncan/Giambi - that's pretty goddamn good. We also get to keep Austin Jackson.

What the hell is wrong with the current scenario? It seems like a total, "Holy crap we need to get to where the Red Sox are," situation. Why not look into trade opportunities like the DRays and Twins just did? This crap drives me batshit crazy...

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 6:07 pm

These rumors about the Yankees or Red Sox getting Santana without giving up anyone of serious consequence just reek of standard stupid Sox/Yankees/Mets rumors. Maybe they're not, but they sure sound like that.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 6:22 pm

Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. The market on Santana isn't all that hot largely because it sounds like he won't waive his no-trade clause without an extension and there are only so many teams with the money, "need" and prospects to acquire him.

I agree with Z to n extent. neither Boston nor NY needs Santana, though I'd argue Boston needs him less since Boston has someone with Ace qualities, Wang is a nice pitcher but he's not a true #1 and having 3 SP in your rotation with only 16 starts and 115 combined pro innings is a risky place to be starting from. That said, no, neither team is in a bad place and neither really NEEDS to make this move.
That said though, it's Johan freakin Santana.

From a Boston fan standpoint though.. I'm really enjoying seeing these kids develop and help the big club. A lot. If I knew Santana would go to the Mets instead of the Yankees... I'd be more than ok with keeping the kids. But if it's Boston (32 starts for the Sox) or the Bronx (possibly 6 starts v. the Sox), which is what it appears to be, then load em up and ship em out Theo.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 7:55 pm

Tigers wrote:These rumors about the Yankees or Red Sox getting Santana without giving up anyone of serious consequence just reek of standard stupid Sox/Yankees/Mets rumors. Maybe they're not, but they sure sound like that.

If the Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson (or Bowden) rumor had come from anywhere else, I would have dismissed it as another "stupid Sox/Yankees/Mets rumor," but I thought it was more interesting since it came from a Minnesota paper. Like most trade rumors that don't turn out to be an actual deal w/in 24 hours, it probably has little merit and doesn't tell us much about Santana's eventual destination. Still fun to speculate about and debate trade scenarios.

Also tough to say that in this particular scenario the Red Sox are giving up nothing. That trade would be a less than I expected Santana to bring in, but Lester was at one point considered the top LH SP prospect in the minors, and it's not a stretch to project him as a good #2 SP eventuall. Crisp is a cheap everyday CF who's excellent defensively. Lowrie and Bowden are 2 of the Sox top 5 prospects, and the only reason Lowrie isn't in the team's plans at SS is b/c they just signed Lugo to that terrible long-term deal. In particular, an offer like that directly addresses some of the Twins' needs over the next year or two.

Also, I'm not sure people are giving enough consideration to Santana's contract status. What the Twins (w/ no chance of re-signing him) are giving up is one year of Johan and a 1st round pick (that they would have received when they lost him as a FA). The team that gets him still has to pay him (what will no doubt be the biggest contract ever for a pitcher). If no contract is agreed to before approving a deal, the team getting Santana could be gutting their farm system and moving a top young SP for just one year of his services. The only thing driving up his price to what some of the media speculated it would be (Buchholz/Ellsbury/Joba/Cano) is that two of the teams in discussions are direct competitors and fierce rivals. He'll command a steep price, but unless Steinbrenners, Jr. force Cashman's hand and decide they must have Santana, I don't see anyone emptying their farm for him.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:08 pm

I think a lot of people forget what a good prospect Lester was before the cancer. While cancer is nothing to minimize, he didn't miss time because of an arm problem so his potential isn't really diminished (barring a recurrence of course). Look at what the Sox gave up to get Pedro... two prospects... and this was a guy who was also coming off an amazing year and much as I like Santana, and I like him a lot, he's no Pedro Martinez. That the Twins are getting offer of this magnitude is due sheerly to the Sox/Yankee rivalry.
Knock it all you want, but sometimes it really can be good for other teams, no way the Twins get these types of packages otherwise.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:12 pm

To me, this is very similar to the Pedro Martinez situation. And in the Pavano and Armas return, guys like Buchholz and Hughes/Joba are a lot closer to Pavano's status than Kennedy or Lester.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:31 pm

Two things. 1. Buchholz/Hughes/Joba don't appear to be available. Buchholz might be. 2. I'm sure Minnesota has made that same comparison and looked and saw what Montreal got from those two players so maybe the potential of 4 good to very good prospects is more appealing than 2 amazing prospects who are further away (as Armas was in high A and Pavano was in AAA, neither had ANY MLB experience whatsoever).

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Tue Dec 04, 2007 9:52 am

A little late to jump in on this, but obviously the Yanks made Hughes available and are now likely out of the running. I can't say getting Santana was a must for the Yanks, but him going to the Red Sox for the current package would be somewhat close to a disaster.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Dec 04, 2007 10:03 am

Gotta agree with you. I didn't think it was too likely that the Sox would get him with out giving up Ellsbury or Buchholz, but apparently the Twins GM, unlike many GM's would in his place, has realized, "Hey, we've got a ton of SP's, we need a couple solid position players (Crisp and Lowrie) more than we need the so-called stud SP (Hughes or Buchholz). And they'd still be getting Lester.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Dec 04, 2007 10:49 am

I don't think Hank Steinbrenner helped the situation much either. The Twins have clearly been annoyed by the Yankees handling of this. Between Hank's public comments and imposing a deadline, if Santana ends up in Boston, Yankee fans have to feel like the NY brass mishandled the negotiations. Also, based on some of the comments I've read, it sounds apparent that there's a lot of internal disagreement as to whether or not they should move Hughes. Even if that's the case in Boston re: Ellsbury, they seem more confident publicly in their player valuation as far as what they're willing to give up.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Tue Dec 04, 2007 11:33 am

Side note: Ellsbury just changed agents to Boras.

I still don't think I would call Crisp a solid position player with a career .280/.329/.409 line, maybe it's just me though. When considering that Johan would be dealt for him, definitely not "solid".

Side note 2: Miguel Cabrera is supposedly getting slimmer and stronger.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Dec 04, 2007 11:43 am

I *heart* Hank

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:27 pm

Check out Schilling's blog (38pitches.com). The last 2 posts are on the Santana trade, and a player's perspective is pretty interesting.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:42 pm

If they make the trade and move Buchholz into the rotation and Wakefield to the bullpen that would almost make Schilling the 5th starter. Imagine that.