College Hoops Preview

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:11 pm

SEND IT IN JEROME!! I was pretty excited to flip on the TV and see my favorite sports announcing team - Raftery, McDonough and Bilas - doing the UNC-Davidson game last night.

College basketball season is here, and as a Hoya fan, I'm even more excited than usual since Big Roy decided to stick around and give us a shot at a national title. Anybody see the cover of SI this week? Hibbert looks like he added some muscle. Unquestionably the best center in the country right now, and he seems to get better with every game.

If you read Jay Bilas's recent article on ESPN.com about how good college basketball could be if guys stayed for 3 or 4 years like they used to though, it'll make you wish the NBA had the same draft rules as the NFL. However, I think the new over-19 rule has definitely added to the game by allowing us to watch a guy like Durant play for a season. I also think that we'll see more guys staying for 2 and 3 years as a result. Guys like Paul Harris of Syracuse, who would have gone into the draft, will realize their freshman year that they're not as good as they thought they were, and need one or more years under the tutelage of a top coach to reach their potential. Imagine what some of the top teams would look like if more guys stayed through their junior/senior year (or went where they committed originally). How about adding Marvin Williams and Brandan Wright to the current UNC team? What if UConn had Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams and Andrew Bynum? How about Texas with LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant? Or if UF had it's whole team back (besides Lee Humphrey)?

Still, can't wait for the season. There are some very good teams this year. The Pac-10 is the consensus preseason best conference, but in my opinion since coaching (both X's + O's and recruiting) is more important in college basketball than in any other major sport, the conference with the best coaches will be the best conference this year, and for the foreseeable future. I realize I'm slightly biased as a Big East lifer (from CT and having gone to G'town), but it's hard to argue any other league has a roster of coaches like Calhoun, Pitino, Boeheim, Huggins, JTIII, Tom Crean, Jamie Dixon, Jay Wright, Jerry Wainwright, Mike Brey and Bobby Gonzalez. If you look at national recruiting lists, there are only a handful of schools whose names pop up as under consideration for the top few recruits each year: UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas (maybe), UConn, and now Louisville and Georgetown seem to appear as often as Carolina and Duke. Syracuse is always in the mix for top guys, and no doubt Huggins will have WVU in the hunt for a lot of elite recruits right away. There's just too much talent coming into the BE in the next few years for it not to be the top league. Georgetown already had a top-10 recruiting class for 08, and that was before they got a commit from #1 recruit Greg Monroe. The amount of talent Pitino has flooding into Louisville borders on ridiculous (I'd bet top unsigned 08 recruit Tyreke Evans signs there too), and UConn will always be in play for the elite guys.

As of right now, here's my 2007-2008 preseason top 10:

1. Memphis - if Derrick Rose is really as good as he looks against lesser competition, pairing him with Chris Douglas-Roberts is a filthy backcourt. Joey Dorsey might be enough frontcourt muscle to compete with teams that have more more offensively skilled post men. Tough non-conference schedule, and they'll have to win most of their nonconf. games against big time teams (like G'town) to get a #1 seed b/c UAB is the only other decent C-USA team.

2. Georgetown - the impact of losing Jeff Green is overrated when you have the nation's best C coming back, along with an underrated G like Jon Wallace, a budding star like DaJuan Summers, and one of the top 10 freshman SG in Austin Freeman. Arguably the 3rd best team in the nation last year (after UF and OSU), they're bringing back every major contributor besides Green, adding two top freshman guards, and making Hibbert the focal point of one of the most efficient offensive systems in college basketball. Their biggest issues last year were having enough outside shooting and committing too many turnovers. Making Wallace the SG and Sapp the PG, having DaJuan Summers (a better outside threat) replace Green in the rotation, and bringing in a freshman sniper like Freeman improves the outside shooting. Putting the ball in Hibbert's hands more often should also help limit turnovers. This team could very well be better than last year's Final Four team, despite losing it's best player.

3. UNC - a very good team, with a very good college player in Hansbrough who's probably slightly overhyped. They absolutely folded late in the game against G'town in the tourney. Ty Lawson's a skilled and lightning-quick PG though, so you can't count them out. They didn't look great against Davidson last night, but they still won, and Davidson's a good, well-coached team.

4. UCLA - I just don't know if you can win a national championship when you have to depend on a freshman (even a great one in Kevin Love) and Lorenzo Mata to play defense in the paint. Still, Howland knows how to get the absolute most out of his team, especially defensively. Afflalo was the go-to guy, so we'll see if Love or Collison is able to pick up that slack.

5. Louisville - Better than people think, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is Pitino's best all-around team since the famous '96 Kentucky squad. Derek Caracter could emerge as a star after he seems to have matured and committed to improving his game. PG Edgar Sosa dropped 30+ on a Billy Gillespie A&M team that was excellent defensively, and should be better. Throw in David Padgett, Terence Williams and Juan Palacios, and they've got arguably as much talent and depth as Memphis.

6. Kansas - Bill Self can recruit, but so far there's no indication he can coach his team to a title.

7. Tennessee - Chris Lofton can shoot the lights out, and if Ramar Smith takes a step forward at PG as a soph., they're dangerous.

8. Duke - They're just due to be good again. Losing McRoberts might be addition by subtraction b/c he wasn't great defensively, and just didn't have a versatile enough offensive game to be the go-to-guy at Duke, where there's so much talent. Paulus isn't a star, but a capable PG, and Nelson and Singler are both very talented.

9. Oregon - Losing Aaron Brooks hurts, but Hairston, Leunen and Tajuan Porter is a pretty nice nucleus coming back.

10. Indiana - Kelvin Sampson is a dirty recruiter and an overrated coach, but the combo of Eric Gordon and D.J. White will make him look smarter than he actually is. Is it me, or does Gordon only shoot NBA 3's (and not miss)?

Sleepers/Underrated (could crack top 15):

Syracuse - Boeheim's a great coach (not to mention egomaniacal and pissed about being snubbed last year), so if Paul Harris plays to the level of his talent (which is immense), and the two freshman contribute (especially Johnny Flynn can help replace the 3-pt. shooting of the injured Andy Rautins), they could surprise some people. A year away from contending for the top prize. P.S. I hate Eric Devendorf more than any college basketball player since Christian Laettner.

Kansas State - Michael Beasley won't continue to put up 30 pts. and 25 rebs. once the competition gets tougher, but Huggs left them in pretty good shape. Beasley and Bill Walker alone could carry this team to exceed expectations.

Texas A&M - Anybody who watched Wichita State the last couple of years knows Mark Turgeon's every bit as good a coach as the departed Gillespie. 7'0" freshman DeAndre Jordan might make them a Big 12 contender by himself.

UConn - Despite the program's worst season in 15 years, the Huskies were the best defensive team in the Big East, and led the nation in blocked shots for the 6th straight year. They had 9 new players, and no Jrs. or Srs. They still might not be a great shooting team, but Calhoun plans to press and run a lot more this season (more like the pre-Okafor teams did), so if they can get some scoring from Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson and double-double machine Jeff Adrien, they could exceed expectations.

Overrated

Michigan State - The BigTen is in a down cycle, and unlike in previous years, MSU's non-conference schedule doesn't feature any elite teams (Texas, Bradley, BYU and NC St. are their best foes). Drew Neitzel is overrated - a good college player who hits big shots (a la Gerry McNamara) but talent-wise isn't a difference-maker when matching up with elite guards. Izzo's still a good coach, so they'll win their share of reg. season games, but be a dissappointment in the tourney.

Marquette - they have a solid backcourt with McNeal and James, and an excellent head coach, but I'm officially off the Dominic James bandwagon. He's a good player, but if you want to win with an undersized and under-talented frontcourt, your best player has to be a better shooter. James was terrible from 3pt. and at the free throw line, and as great a defensive backcourt as he and Jerel McNeal will be, they'll really struggle against bigger teams.

USC - Tim Floyd's an excellent college coach, and O.J. Mayo's got loads of talent, but not talented enough to overcome their lack of experience. Starting 2 freshman and 3 sophs makes a deep tourney run difficult, especially since the Pac-10 is pretty good and young players tend to struggle when they start playing conference road games.

Super deep sleepers teams (could break into top 25):

UAB - Lost in all the controversy and expectations at IU was the fact that Mike Davis is a very good basketball coach who took his team to a national championship game. Robert Vaden followed him to UAB, and the Blazers should be the 2nd best team in C-USA.

Providence - they lost Herbert Hill to the NBA, but they still have Sharaud Curry, Geoff McDermott (a very good passing forward) and Weyinmi Efijuku. Efijuku was an absolutely explosive scorer at times last year, and if Tim Welsh can get a more consistent effort out of him this season, they could upset a few teams in the Big East and make a run at the NCAA tourney.

Virginia - Maybe going out on a limb here, but I really like the coaching job Dave Leitao has done there. The glow of the new John Paul Jones center hasn't worn off yet, and they return their best player in Sean Singletary. Since I don't think the ACC is particularly strong after UNC and Duke, UVA has a chance to make some noise again.

Any other college basketball addicts out there? If not, I'll still probably entertain myself with massive rambling posts about the most exciting season in sports all the way through March, so enjoy (or ignore - if you prefer sports where the champion isn't determined by actually playing the games).

DBacks · Post by **DBacks** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:17 pm

Aside from baseball, there's no sport I look forward to more than college basketball. Growing on the Indiana/Kentucky border with Aaron meant being surrounded by college bball greatness. The Hoosiers, The Cardinals, and my beloved Wildcats all the time. There were some years growing up that Indiana would send 6 or so schools to the dance, and I believe the Purdue Boilermakers had some pretty decent teams as well.

I'm one of the few Kentucky fans who was a big supporter of Tubby Smith, but now that its all said and done with him I'm anxious to see what Pat G can do. The upset to Gardner Webb hurt, but I'm gonna chalk it up to growing pains and inexperience. The team has monumental offensive potential and the Wildcats always seem to find a way to be relevant come March. It's gonna be a fun season.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:21 pm

I think Gillespie will be a success at UK. The guy can flat-out coach, and it doesn't matter who or how he recruited at A&M. When you're the head coach at Kentucky, you WILL get talented recruits. People will forget about the loss to Gardner Webb. Patrick Patterson is going to be really good, but I think they'll make more noise next year.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:46 pm

Where's St. Johns?

It sucks growing up in NYC and trying to be passionate about college sports.

Go Wagner College!

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:57 pm

Rockies wrote:Where's St. Johns?

It sucks growing up in NYC and trying to be passionate about college sports.

Go Wagner College!

I agree. I'm tired of hearing what a great job Norm Roberts is doing when he still doesn't seem to have made inroads for recruiting the top talent in maybe the most talent-laden region in the country. Anthony Mason, Jr.? C'mon norm. Get yourself a Tyreke Evans or Samardo Samuels. Right now Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse and UConn all have a far better recruiting presence in the NY metro area than St. John's, Seton Hall or Rutgers. That's a shame. It would be nice to see the Garden bounce with college hoops fans before the BE tourney every year. I think Bobby Gonzalez has the best chance of the three to turn his program around in the short term, but those schools need to pony up, and either improve facilities + coaching/recruiting (SJU, SHU) or overpay for a name coach who can really recruit to take advantage of a great home court (like the RAC at Rutgers).

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 2:32 pm

I'm 100% convinced that if you want to be passionate about college sports, you HAVE to get out of the Northeast. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:11 pm

RedSox wrote:I'm 100% convinced that if you want to be passionate about college sports, you HAVE to get out of the Northeast. Nothing will ever convince me otherwise.

College football, yes. College basketball, no. Gampel, the Carrier Dome, the Oakland Zoo at Pitt, the Palestra in Philly, even the RAC at Rutgers are all great places to see a game with passionate fans (and I've been to Cameron, among other college basketball venues).

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:45 pm

I count Pennsylvania as Mid-Atlantic. I'm thinking NY and New England.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:48 pm

There's only 2 consistently good teams in NY and New England, UConn and Syracuse, and both are passionate about college basketball. If any one of the the 3 NYC area teams had some success, I'm sure fans would be back on board. The G'town-SJU games in NY back in the day were pretty raucous.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 5:10 pm

Me and Gabe grew up during a down time in the cradle of basketball when UK was coming back to earth from the Pitino era, Denny Crum was on his last legs and Bobby Knight was getting fired and Mike Davis was letting every top recruit leave the state(but OMG he recruits Alabama well!). Don't listen to what ESPN says about how passionate North Carolina is about basketball, a bunch of rich Duke kids jumping up and down screaming "OHHHHHHHHHH" for 40 minutes does not make you the best fans in the country. If you want real passion about basketball, if you want a sport thats discussed every day of the year, you come to the Louisville area. There's a pretty even split between UK and U of L fans on the Kentucky side of the river, but over here its more 75% IU and the rest split between the Cards and Cats.

I haven't been this excited about an IU team since Damon Bailey and Calbert Cheaney were dominating the Big 10. Say what you want about Sampson(and IMO if he screws up again they'll fire him) but he's recruiting in state. That's why people hated Mike Davis, it wasn't that he replaced Knight, it was that he didn't try for the top players in the state. Sean May went to the same high school as Mike Davis Jr. Guess which one of those 2 wound up at IU? Not getting Oden and Connely was the last straw. He also ignored kids at smaller schools. There was a kid named Anthony Winchester that went to a small Class A high school about 30 miles from here in Austin, all IU had to do was sniff him and he'd have went. Davis didn't even look at him. He went to Western Kentucky and averaged like 25 a game playing center when he was a small forward.

My main worry about IU this year is still lack of front court depth. I saw it all last year, whenever DJ White was out of the game, there was nothing down low. We had a couple guys that could bang around and crash the boards, but they couldn't score except on put backs and tip ins. Evidently there's a freshman and a JUCO guy that are supposed to be good. I'm going to have to get the Big 10 Network so I can watch all the games, because right now I'll only get national televised games whereas in the past I got to watch every single IU game on local TV.

Billy Gilliespie scares me to death. I was fine with Tubby at UK because while he always put good teams on the floor, he was never really a threat. In the post Pitino era, the only Tubby guy that ever scared me was Patrick Sparks because he was fearless. Now Gilliespie has everyone excited again and will get great recruits. Louisville is going to be great this year too. Get ready for a 3 way holy war around these parts.

I love Bill Rafftery, but how can you favorite announce team not be Bill and the immortal Gus Johnson. Gus Johnson makes everything he does better. I would watch him call monopoly games

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 5:33 pm

john ill be honest, im a huge huge st johns fan.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 5:51 pm

Cardinals wrote:when UK was coming back to earth from the Pitino era

Fuck Rick Pitino...

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 5:58 pm

Louisville could be scary good, but they need a lot of things to break right, like Sosa, Caracter and Clark to continue to get better, and good health from Padgett, Palacios and Williams. Still, a very good team.

I agree that the atmosphere at Cameron is overrated. Geez, I don't think those kids even have a few drinks like normal college students before they go to the game. It was a bunch of sober uber-nerds painting their faces and wearing wigs and jumping up and down when I went there. Even worse, I wore a Carolina Blue "Hoyas Basketball" t-shirt in the middle of one of the student sections under the hoop (mighta been grad students) and I didn't even get a sideways glance despite my G'town buddies and I cheering loudly and insulting Jon Scheyer a lot. I'd like to see a game at Pitt. I hear that's a pretty fun atmosphere.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Fri Nov 16, 2007 1:18 pm

Can't read too much into these early season games, but a few observations from the games/highlights I saw last night:

- Memphis will be the athletically superior team against just about anyone they play this year. The only small c*i*k I saw in their armor was that OU was able to keep it close by playing zone. Memphis shot over the zone, bombing from three point range. If they're not making them against a team with a lockdown zone, they could be in for a fight. I'd expect them to get better at busting zones through conference play though, b/c nobody in C-USA has the athletes to try to keep up with them so they'll see almost exclusively zone D.

- Memphis-UConn tonight will be interesting (more as a way of evaluating both teams than as an actual game - b/c Memphis is the far superior team) b/c UConn basically only plays man-to-man. They're one of the few teams who, strictly on the basis of speed and athleticism, can keep up with the Tigers. I think there's a possibility they could keep it close through the first half just b/c UConn's a terrific defensive team, but I don't think they can score nearly enough to keep it close as the game winds down. If A.J. Price doesn't perform offensively like he did last night against upstart Gardner-Webb, this will be a blowout. Joey Dorsey will be a big test for Hasheem Thabeet in the post to see if he's developed his game at all from last year. He's long enough to disturb Dorsey's post offense with shot-blocking ability, but he still hasn't filled out and will get pushed around by the much stronger Memphis big man.

- for about 10-15 minutes last night against Gardner-Webb, you could see the kind of team Calhoun envisioned UConn becoming, especially when A.J. Price (after 17 first half points) decided to become more of a distributor in the second half, and found some teammates for easy baskets. They still have a long way to go, and somebody other than Price will have to show they can score from outside, but I like the energy and athleticism. If sophomores Price and Stanley Robinson mature and become more consistent on the offensive end, UConn could have a dangerous inside/outside duo. Throw in the consistent Jeff Adrien, and the sheer size of Thabeet, and they could be capable of doing some damage in the tournament's early rounds by the time March rolls around. Of course, they also had stretches last night where they looked like the freshman bricklayers they were last season, so there's a long way to go.

- Granted Michigan is young and trying to learn complex new offensive and defensive systems under new coach John Beilein, but Georgetown impressed in their win last night. Easy baskets, killer 3 pt. shooting, and big contributions from sophomore Vernon Macklin (backing up Hibbert) and freshman Austin Freeman (10 pts, 2-5 from 3) and Chris Wright (10 pts, 2-2 from 3.) bodes well for the Hoyas opening up the floor for Hibbert this year with better outside shooting. DaJuan Summers had a nice baseline drive/reverse jam too. Jesse Sapp put up a nice line taking over some of the ballhandling duties from Wallace too (12 pts, 6 reb., 5 ast., 1 to).

- Georgetown and Memphis meet at the Pyramid Dec. 22, in what should be one of the best non-conference matchups of the year. Can't wait for that one. Before then, G'town has 2 decent tune-ups at ODU (revenge for ODU's on-campus win at G'town last year), and at Alabama. Memphis might be a little better prepared facing UConn tonight at MSG, followed by an early Dec. home game with USC, and a game at Cincinnati (even though they should be pretty terrible this year - still not a gimme road win).

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:00 pm

- Providence upset #18 Arkansas today, even without Friars starting PG/SG Sharaud Curry, who's injured. One of my "deep sleepers" makin me look smart early.

- If you're not watching UConn-Memphis right now and you're a college hoops fan, you might want to flip it on for the second half. Maybe the two most athletic teams in the country racing each other up and down the court. Fun game to watch. UConn was down 15 at one point, but came all the way back to take the lead over #3 Memphis at halftime. Connecticut looks like a completely different team than the sucky no-offense JV squad they were last year. Joey Dorsey in foul trouble for Memphis has been the difference. If he stays off the bench, I think Memphis wins. If he picks up another foul early in half 2, UConn could score a huge early-season upset.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:14 pm

- UConn's much improved this year, but Memphis is a terrific team, especially with Dorsey on the floor. The guy's just so physically imposing that he takes away smaller guys' ability to go to the basket. The Memphis guards were as good as advertised too. Calipari's team is deep, experienced (other than Rose - who will get better as the season goes on, which is scary), and very talented. UConn was much more effective when they got out and ran, and they should have more success scoring fastbreak against less athletic opponents (which is most opponents), especially if A.J. Price runs the team like he has in the first few games. Price is starting to look like the elite talent at PG that Calhoun touted him as before two years of brain hemmorages and stolen laptops set him back.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:51 am

- So far 2 of my "deep sleeper" squads listed above have already knocked off ranked opponents. Providence upset #18 Arkansas Friday night, and Virginia won at #17 Arizona tonight. UAB was a bit of a shot in the dark (I was trying to reach outside the major conferences), and Mike Davis's young Blazers have lost 2 in a row (at Florida State and at Ga. Southern), so at this early point in the season, I'm 2 for 3. We'll see if UAB can right the ship as the season progresses, but I'm less confident that they'll get a lot better than I am that PC and UVA can keep winning games. Getting Sharaud Curry back from injury will help the Friars quite a bit in the backcourt, and I think they could pull a few upsets in the Big East to hang around the top 25 this year.

Lot of basketball to be played though, so we'll see.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:04 am

I agree w/ Vacek - it's clear by Bren's post that he's never been to Cameron or Gampel. Being from CT, and going to school just south of Cuse - and having been to some other major college venues (Duke, NC, Stanford - amazing fans, Indiana), I can promise the fans at UConn and Cuse are just as crazy.

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:16 am

Even when Uconn plays at the civic center its crazy. In 2006 the RAC (rutgers athletic center) was voted the 5th hardest place to play on the road. Unfortunately I wish rutgers was slightly better at basketball.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:16 am

That's what's so great about college basketball. Sure, it's impressive that some schools can get 100,000 people together in a huge outdoor stadium to go nuts for a football game - but give me 10 to 20,000 screaming and goin nuts in a packed small indoor arena where the players can see almost each and every fan's face (and definitely hear what they're saying, or chanting). Assembly Hall at IU and the Pit at NM (if it still exists, which I think it does) are among the places I'd love to see a game. I've heard that the old "Cage" at UMass was just insane.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:38 am

If anyone is ever considering going to IU for a game, let me know a ways ahead of time and I'll try to meet ya there.

Now if we're talking college football, hands down there's nothing better than SEC football. I've been trying to get tickets to the Vols/UK game Saturday and its sold out and tickets are real expensive on Ebay. I think I'm going to try to go to Neyland next year for the Bama game

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:41 am

Aaron, if I get out that way, I'll definitely take you up on that.

I'm sure SEC football is insane. Just generally football in the south is a different animal. I've heard the opening 30 seconds of a Clemson game is the most raucous 30 seconds in college sports, what with the cannon going off, a zillion orange and white ballons in the air, and everyone going nuts.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:38 am

Your right about southern football. I'd gone to Cal and Stanford games my entire life, including the Big Game that got Stanford to its first Rose Bowl of my lifetime, and they didn't even compare to the high school games in New Orleans. I never got out to an LSU game when I was there, but I got a reasonable facsimile when Mississippi State nearly filled up the Superdome with its visiting crowd for a game against Tulane. That's the way to watch a game.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:42 am

I'd love to go to an SEC football game, or an inter-conference rivalry game like Clemson-South Carolina or something. The major college football games I've been to (not counting UConn games) are BC @ Stanford a few years ago (before BC left the Big East) and Minnesota @ Michigan, which was the homecoming game in 1997 when Michigan won a share of the national title with Chuck Woodson. That was pretty incredible. Even a game like Alabama-Ole Miss or something would be awesome to go to though.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:54 am

I became a Vols fan in 2001, I didn't have a college team I rooted for and we happened to be down in the Smokies in Octobert when they played South Carolina. EVERYONE had on oragne, people that were working in restaurants, everyone. I said to myself if this is Tennessee football then sign me up. Plus, Rocky Top, Smokey, the Volunteer Navy, Peyton, Reggie White, JIM BOB COOTER