Posting System and Tanaka

[Royals]

It sounds like MLB and NPB are close to getting a posting system agreement in place. It also sounds like there will end up being multiple teams attempting to sign him once it is in place, which could drag out the signing process. With it already being December 5th, I'm leaning towards thinking that Tanaka isn't going to sign by 1/1, leaving him ineligible for our draft. Some reports even say he may not get posted at all (though other reports disagree and I don't think that will be the case).
Does anyone else have any thoughts on whether he'll make the 1/1 deadline?

[Tigers]

It sounds like MLB and NPB are close to getting a posting system agreement in place. It also sounds like there will end up being multiple teams attempting to sign him once it is in place, which could drag out the signing process. With it already being December 5th, I'm leaning towards thinking that Tanaka isn't going to sign by 1/1, leaving him ineligible for our draft. Some reports even say he may not get posted at all (though other reports disagree and I don't think that will be the case).
Does anyone else have any thoughts on whether he'll make the 1/1 deadline?

I think it is a crap shoot at this point whether or not Rhukutan posts him. I think they are just as likely to keep Tanaka and go for the Japan League title next season as they are to post him if they are limited to $20 million on the posting fee. How much extra do Japanese League teams make in a run to the title? Is it close to $20mm?

[Guardians]

It sounds like MLB and NPB are close to getting a posting system agreement in place. It also sounds like there will end up being multiple teams attempting to sign him once it is in place, which could drag out the signing process. With it already being December 5th, I'm leaning towards thinking that Tanaka isn't going to sign by 1/1, leaving him ineligible for our draft. Some reports even say he may not get posted at all (though other reports disagree and I don't think that will be the case).
Does anyone else have any thoughts on whether he'll make the 1/1 deadline?

I think it is a crap shoot at this point whether or not Rhukutan posts him. I think they are just as likely to keep Tanaka and go for the Japan League title next season as they are to post him if they are limited to $20 million on the posting fee. How much extra do Japanese League teams make in a run to the title? Is it close to $20mm?

Maybe, but if $20M is what you get, you take it. If Tanaka blows out his arm going for the league title, that money disappears. MLB holds all the cards on the posting system, so Japan was going to have to take what they could get. If they start holding players back, it's just going to irk the players, who will make the change...or defect like Cubans. Will they post him this year? I'm sure he's asking them to. If a team only gives up $20M instead of $60M to the team, in theory that's more money for him.