While there is little question that Tim Lincecum's stats will get better (probably significantly), is he the dominant ace of 2009? More significantly, at an age when Lincecum should be entering his professional prime, is he in an actual regression?
Over the past three years it's clear that Lincecum has become imminently more hittable. His strikeout rate has declined from 2008-2011, while his walk rate has increased each year since 2009. Obviously these numbers would create a declining k/bb rate, suggesting that hitters are really catching up to this young man.
Lincecum's babip last year was 10 points below the league average, a year after it was 17 points above the league average. Seeing the fluctuations in his yearly babip would suggest that Lincecum isn't one of those pitchers that just regularly avoids hard contact. This season he is 146 points above the league average, so obviously this will give positively in his direction over the next few weeks and months.
Given that AT&T is a pretty extreme pitcher's park, is Tim Lincecum "the freak"? Or is he just really good? The answer probably lies somewhere in between, but he will probably never be as good as he was in 2009 again.
"The Freak?"
Moderator: Yankees
