2012 - Free Agent Predictions

[Mets]

I was just thinking about this earlier today, then saw it on MLB Trade Rumors. I'm really excited by this free agent class, even if it is top heavy. Feel free to chime in.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012freeagentcontest

Here are my picks:

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals. No other team outbids high enough to get him to leave.

2. Prince Fielder - Cubs. Theo comes out swinging. Prince knows he won't have to DH.

3. Jose Reyes - Brewers. Mets 4 year offer with 5th year option isn't horrible, but Brewers wind up outbidding themselves, as all other teams refuse to overpay for an injury prone short stop.

4. C.J. Wilson - Red Sox. Mostly a product of there not being any other options, and the farm system not matching up to acquire more than one starter via trade. I can see them making the move for the likes of a John Danks in addition to signing Wilson.

5. Yu Darvish - Japan. Teams are scared off of $50M thanks to Dice-K.

6. Edwin Jackson - Nationals. Nats need someone to throw 200 innings and aren't afriad of Boras guys. Jackson could benefit from Nationals Park, and actually becomes a good signing over his 4-year deal.

7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies. Quite frankly, the Phillies value him more than any other team will.

8. Aramis Ramirez - Rockies. Rockies quickly realize that David Wright is a pipe dream without giving up Fowler. Ramirez realizes he can hit 25+ HR at Coors and that the Rockies can be competitive from year to year.

9. Carlos Beltran - Tigers. The Tigers have a habit of signing DH-types and allowing them to play the field. With Magglio removed from RF and Beltran not wanting to DH full time, this move allows the Tigers to add another switch hitter to combine with V-mart and Miggy, while also allowing them mix in Boesch & Dirks and allowing Beltran to DH some.

10. Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox. There are a few closer options out there this offseason, and no team offers Paps more than Boston.

11. Michael Cuddyer - Cubs. Theo makes his second splash by signing Cuddyer to replace Ramirez at 3B, giving him one more year than the Twins offer to keep him.

12. Mark Buehrle - Cardinals. Cards let Jackson walk and give almost identical money to Buehrle.

13. David Ortiz - Mariners. There is probably no team in baseball that needs offense more than Seattle. They do have some young bats, and the pressure to compete before Felix is traded or leaves via free agency will mean that they will need to make a move now in a mediocre AL West (even with the Rangers)

14. Ryan Madson - Phillies. Phillies are wise to go with what they know here.

15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. Because it's not fun picking retirement as the option.

16. Carlos Pena - Blue Jays. Pirates are a good option, but I think they resign D-Lee. Blue Jays make a play for several other bats, but settle for Pena as they try to add more protection for Bautista.

17. Francisco Rodriguez - Marlins. Marlins have a need and are looking for a splash to open their new stadium. A flashy closer is a good match.

18. Roy Oswalt - Rangers. This rumor has been out there, and just makes too much sense to list any other team.

19. Javier Vazquez - Marlins. There's the retirement talk, but if the Marlins offer him $10M, and sign K-Rod, etc., he'll give it another go.

20. Heath Bell - Padres. Bell resigns where he is comfortable in a non-closers market.

21. Coco Crisp - Mets. Mets non-tenure Pagan, and replace him with...Pagan. Actually, Crisp has better CF range, and should be a better option to lead off to replace Reyes.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma - Twins. Stealing this one from MLBTR - The Twins bid on Iwakuma last year when he was posted, and this year they can simply sign him as a free agent.

23. Kelly Johnson - Twins. Twins could use another middle infielder, and need to replace the offense from Kubel & Cuddyer leaving. They'd prefer a righty, but Johnson fits a need.

24. Josh Willingham - Indians. They still think they can contend, as evident with the Lowe deal, but still have depth issues, as illustrated when Choo went down. Subtract Grady, and the Indians look for moderate cost offense options.

25. Paul Maholm - Mariners. M's look at Maholm as a replacement for Fister, and wind up overpaying him on a 4-year deal. Safeco proves to be a good career move, and he's much better than Carlos Silva.

26. Grady Sizemore - Nationals. Need a CF. Looking to make a splash to build on near-.500 season. Would be willing to give Grady more than 1-year.

27. Bartolo Colon - Tigers. I like Colon returning to the AL Central, and replacing Brad Penny in Detroit's rotation.

28. Erik Bedard - Mets. In one of the stranger signings of the year, the Mets add a 3rd lefty to their rotation (behind Johan & Niese). Bedard agrees to yet another 1-year deal, but the move to the NL is a great one.

29. David DeJesus - Padres. DeJesus is a great fit to roam Petco, and there aren't that many suitors for him this year.

30. Jason Kubel - Giants. Kubel takes Beltran's spot.

31. Ramon Hernandez - Dodgers. Hernandez had a nice offensive year, splitting time with other Reds catchers. A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz - Dodgers look for an upgrade.

32. Jeff Francis - Pirates. Veteran starter had decent comeback year. Will be in Pirates price range.

33. Chris Capuano - Red Sox. Sox made a push for him late in the season after claiming him on waivers. They have a need for rotation depth.

34. Tsuyoshi Wada - Pirates. Why not?

35. Clint Barmes - Tigers. Raburn is not a 2B.

36. Casey Kotchman - Rays. Kotchman gets some looks, but in a deep 1B market, Rays go for price.

37. Freddy Garcia - Yankees. No harm, no foul.

38. Aaron Hill - Diamondbacks. There's mutual love here, and Hill realized that it's really fun to hit in Arizona.

39. Johnny Damon - Rays. Damon actually turns down a better offer from Baltimore and a mystery team to return.

40. Aaron Harang - White Sox. After dealing Danks and losing Buerhle, they need to fill rotation spots. Harang thinks he has a deal with Mets before they sign Bedard.

41. Jamey Carroll - Braves. Carroll sees a lot of potential starts at SS as insurance if Braves can't find anyone else, but also fits in as backup to Chipper & Uggla.

42. Rafael Furcal - Cardinals. Returns to St. Louis at a reasonable cost.

43. Juan Pierre - Marlins. Pierre returns to Miami, as they can't trust Coghlan, and Morrison's name gets talked about in trade rumors all winter.

44. Frank Francisco - Phillies. Not a good option to given his fly ball rates, but the Phillies need pen depth, and Francisco could replace Lidge.

45. Jason Marquis - Padres. Shunned by NY teams again, Marquis waits late into the offseason before settling for San Diego. Then puts up an allstar first half.

46. Joel Pineiro - Rockies. Rockies miss out on several free agent pitchers, and Pineiro's GB rate is a good fit.

47. Jonathan Broxton - Twins. Broxton is not the same pitcher, but the Twins like incentive deals, and need to replace Nathan.

48. Joe Nathan - Mets. Mets try to fool the fans but signing a big name, who may never regain form. If Isringhausen could do it, Nathan can close some games.

49. Kerry Wood - Cubs. Stolen from MLBTR - It's Cubs or retirement for Wood, and there's no reason not to bring him back.

50. Bruce Chen - Royals. Royals need pitching, but refuse to spend money on guys like Piniero or Maholm after getting burned by Meche.

[Twins]

Some thoughts on the Twins stuff:

I don't see them letting both Cuddyer and Kubel walk. If they bring back only one, it's Cuddyer, because Kubel is a better hitter.

I don't see them going after Broxton, simply because he throws hard. We like to pitch to contact in Minnesota and let our formerly superior defense bail our our sub-replacement relievers. My guess is Nathan comes back because we like to stick with "our guys".

Kelly Johnson probably won't work out, because his game is similar to J.J. Hardy's, and as a result, he hits far too many home runs to play for the Twins.

End sarcasm.

I wouldn't doubt the Twins go after Iwakuma, but they might be scared off by how terrible Nishioka was.

[Astros]

I've wanted Buehlre in St. Louis forever and heaven knows he has been more than open about his desire to be a Cardinal but it won't happen.

SP under contract for next year:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Garcia
Lohse
Westbrook

Throw in that McClellan can start, there's been talks of Scrabble starting and Shelby Miller ready to go by September and there's no room

I wouldn't mind Furcal back if he's really cheap. That said, if he's not I'm more than fine with throwing Ryan Jackson's glove out there and giving Descalso some starts at SS. Someone competent with the glove, no more experiments like Theriot.

I pray Pujols comes back. I don't know why he'd leave. He has a city that loves him, a soft media market that doesn't question him. He's always said the most important thing to him is winning and right now the Cardinals are set up to win for a bit. If he chases the highest dollar elsewhere it'll all have been talk. If he stays he'll have a giant statue like Stan Musial. If he leaves, he'll have a little statue like Enos Slaughter, Ozzie and all the other hall of famers

[Phillies]

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals
2. Prince Fielder - Nationals
3. Jose Reyes - Giants
4. C.J. Wilson - Rangers
5. Yu Darvish - Yankees
6. Edwin Jackson - Cubs
7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies
8. Aramis Ramirez - A's
9. Carlos Beltran - Braves
10. Jonathan Papelbon - Phillies
11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins
12. Mark Buehrle - White Sox
13. David Ortiz - Blue Jays
14. Ryan Madson - Red Sox
15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers
16. Carlos Pena - Brewers
17. Francisco Rodriguez - Marlins - like your pick here
18. Roy Oswalt - Rangers - same here
19. Javier Vazquez - Marlins - again
20. Heath Bell - Cardinals
21. Coco Crisp - Giants
22. Hisashi Iwakuma - No clue
23. Kelly Johnson - Blue Jays
24. Josh Willingham - Indians - agreed
25. Paul Maholm - Orioles - Jeff Francis type deal
26. Grady Sizemore - Tigers
27. Bartolo Colon - Retirement - he gains 50 pounds this offseason
28. Erik Bedard - Red Sox
29. David DeJesus - Mariners
30. Jason Kubel - Twins
31. Ramon Hernandez - Dodgers - like this pick
32. Jeff Francis - Reds
33. Chris Capuano - Pirates
34. Tsuyoshi Wada - Rays
35. Clint Barmes - Pirates
36. Casey Kotchman - Phillies
37. Freddy Garcia - Yankees
38. Aaron Hill - Diamondbacks
39. Johnny Damon - Rays
40. Aaron Harang - Mariners
41. Jamey Carroll - Braves - agreed. mutual interest
42. Rafael Furcal - Mets
43. Juan Pierre - Marlins - like this pick
44. Frank Francisco - Mets
45. Jason Marquis - Mets
46. Joel Pineiro - Rockies - like this pick
47. Jonathan Broxton - A's
48. Joe Nathan - Twins
49. Kerry Wood - Cubs
50. Bruce Chen - Royals

[Mets]

also of note, Ozzie might be Pierre's biggest fan. Not sure why I didn't mention that originally.

[Phillies]

Boy am I smart. Papelbon to Philly.