I've talked to Shawn and Brett about this already, but need to post it here as well. It looks more and more like we're using ZiPS for this coming year. I've got an email out to Baseball Prospectus about PECOTA, and while they didn't say no there won't be a database, it sure didn't sound like there would be. Diamond Mind is seemingly dead, totally unresponsive to emails and phone calls not only from me but others as well.
Point is, it's looking like we're using ZiPS for 2010. We can try to come up with some sort of alternative for 2011, and we'd better start on that over the Spring and Summer instead of waiting till the Fall like we did this year especially if we want to concoct our own projections with some sort of combination.
Regardless, I suggest that we put a signing freeze into action, but not active until Dan posts the first build of the ZiPS database. We don't know when it will be, so it's silly to halt all pick up and drops until then. Luckily, thanks to Shawn we have time stamps on all transactions and Baseball Think Factory has time stamps on their posts, so we could easily see who signed who when. Most of the zips sleeper simmers have already been scooped up, but there are still outfield arm ratings that we don't know as well as free agents that Dan may not have put onto a teams projection.
Signing Freeze / Zips
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Cardinals
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Signing Freeze / Zips
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Rangers
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I don't see how it would be a dick move at all. No one asked him to do it, he never came to the exco and had any dialogue about the chances that we would use it, and he's even been secretive about wanting to not disclose his formula. There is no way that we can have a system where some GMs know how projections are derived and others don't. It would be crazy of us to accept his projections before all of that completely changes. Oh and they're not good.Dodgers wrote:I'm not a fan of using Bren's system personally. I realize it'd kind of be a dick move for him to put in all the work and come up with a decent system and us to turn it down, but there was no implied acceptance of using it if it was any good.
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Padres
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Exactly.Dodgers wrote:I'm not a fan of using Bren's system personally ... there was no implied acceptance of using it [even] if it was any good.
We are going with ZIPs this year so let's just do it. I have not given up on BP/BDD in the future but this year we are using ZIPs so let's just do it and take the appropriate steps.
