Predict Steven Strasburg's sim line

Brewers · Post by **Brewers** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:13 pm

This is going to be one of the hardest lines to predict in a while for people making a season disk. If they are truly trying to predict a season, then he must be created due to the near certainty that he will be pitching in WAS this year. I will be very interested to see where they put his line. Let's see who can come closest to his projection.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:32 pm

Unfortunately, there will probably be significant variation from one projection system to another (ZIPS/PECOTA/ etc.).

ZIPS probably being pretty conservative, while others possibly giving him a more aggressive projected stat line. For a WAG......how 'about something like this.....

135 Innings, 4.05 ERA, K/9 9.5, BB/9 3.25

Solid K numbers, a little wild in his rookie campaign. I could see ZIPS throwing something like that out there.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:26 pm

4.50 ERA, 110 IP, 120 H, 85 K, 35 W

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:04 pm

Astros wrote:4.50 ERA, 110 IP, 120 H, 85 K, 35 W

35 Wins in 110 IP, pretty nice.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:22 pm

That W to IP would have to be some kind of record.

Rays · Post by **Rays** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:53 pm

Even attempting to project a college player straight into MLB is absurd. I bet half of them leave him out.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:01 pm

Leaving out a pitcher who might as well be the Opening Day starter for his team is even more absurd than attempting to project him. They'll probably just give him slightly above projection average.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:41 pm

Did anyone catch his pitching line today?? Amazing as it is, he can actually give up a few runs.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:29 pm

Yeah, but who else do they have to go to? Lannan? Ha.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:52 am

ZiPs:
7-7, 5.09 ERA, 140 innings, 42 k's

Brewers · Post by **Brewers** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:24 pm

Mariners wrote:Unfortunately, there will probably be significant variation from one projection system to another (ZIPS/PECOTA/ etc.).

ZIPS probably being pretty conservative, while others possibly giving him a more aggressive projected stat line. For a WAG......how 'about something like this.....

135 Innings, 4.05 ERA, K/9 9.5, BB/9 3.25

Solid K numbers, a little wild in his rookie campaign. I could see ZIPS throwing something like that out there.

Do you want to project the rest of my team for me...

Actual projection.

114 IP, 4.18 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.84 BB/9

Well I could pretend that I am disappointed, but I will take this. The K/BB ratio is great. His HR/9 is a bit high, but that is expected from a kid. I am kind of shocked his ERA is so high with his peripherals, but that may speak to the wonders of the Washington defense.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:44 pm

I'm glad you tossed that last line in. Outside of Morgan and Zimmerman it looks it appears ZiPS projects a defense that would be slightly better than the Gaithersburg Babe Ruth All-Stars. Good grief that's a lot of Pr's and Fr's...

Brewers · Post by **Brewers** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:57 pm

I was slightly disappointed by the 4.18 ERA and 103 ERA+, until I realized I had a rookie pitcher with a 8.9 K rate and below 3 BB/9. His H/9 is below 9 also. A poor defense has to be the culprit of his ERA.

Rays · Post by **Rays** » Wed Dec 02, 2009 1:47 am

Give me another monht and I'll give you my guess... I bet it will be spot on with at least one projection system