If anyone has made a completed database with all the deals and transactions (or at least some of them) updated, I would appreciate it if they would send it over to me at gabe.hammad@gmail.com.
thanks.
DMB coming to an end.
So, I've used my dbase, JP's, and Patrick's. For the most part, they're exactly the same. The results, however, are not.
There are flaws with the way ZiPS translates into the DMB software. Something doesn't add up. Projections don't match performance.
Also, I'm a frequent visitor to bbtf and I'm still having trouble finding anything, anywhere, where Dan says he's going to do splits for every player. It looks to me like only a few select players are going to be getting them.
Anyway, I know there isn't much we can do about this...but can't we reach out to some other leagues and see if there are some not using ZiPS or the season disk? Maybe someone would be willing to share.
Has there been any official word from PECOTA? I'm growing increasingly frustrated with the quality of this. There's no semblance of reality in it at all. It's like the projections aren't even there. It's all kind of arbitrary. It's like playing bingo with our season.
There are flaws with the way ZiPS translates into the DMB software. Something doesn't add up. Projections don't match performance.
Also, I'm a frequent visitor to bbtf and I'm still having trouble finding anything, anywhere, where Dan says he's going to do splits for every player. It looks to me like only a few select players are going to be getting them.
Anyway, I know there isn't much we can do about this...but can't we reach out to some other leagues and see if there are some not using ZiPS or the season disk? Maybe someone would be willing to share.
Has there been any official word from PECOTA? I'm growing increasingly frustrated with the quality of this. There's no semblance of reality in it at all. It's like the projections aren't even there. It's all kind of arbitrary. It's like playing bingo with our season.
I've been using Pat's database and my results have been pretty consistent. I agree that the projections seem to have little bearing on actual performance (my guess is that they are based more strongly on park effects than the old DMB projections were). On my roster, for example, Derek Holland ends up being a useful starter despite a shit projection (sadly none of my other starters with shit projections seem to be able to pull that off), and if anything the sim manager seems a little more bizarre in terms of usage. At some point soon I think we're going to have to accept the Zips product for what it is and play out the season. I'm definitely not in favor of delaying the start of the season for something that might show up and might be better from BP without any official word from them. I think once the season starts and things get rolling (especially if there is as much h2h as possible) the rest will sort itself out. There are a few things we can do with park effects that might mitigate some of the variance, at the end of the day there are four teams in the NL Central (Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Chicago, Houston) that Zips seems to see as roughly equal in talent, and I've seen all possible orders and huge variations in win and loss totals for all four, and this isn't surprising if all four teams are even and the games played amongst them (which is the largest plurality of games on the schedule) are basically coin flips. On the other hand, Zips seems to definitely see the Yankees, Tigers, and Reds as a cut above the teams in their divisions, and they consistently win comfortably which makes sense. Bren is closer to Pat Bishop (and sans Smoltz and Duchsherer for April and maybe May that will make more sense) than I would have imagined, but that's not totally unreasonable. My division sucks out loud, but we already knew that and that would happen whatever projection system we used (though I would be a good 5-10 games better if Giambi and Davis got fair projections). The NL East and NL West are pretty competitive with Zips and we see different teams winning each, which is what we'd expect. These projections aren't perfect (neither were last year's DMB edition), but I think we'll get a reasonable season out of them.
Its not the overall team results that bother me. It's the individuals. Something seems strangely off. I've simmed a million seasons now and Joe Blanton consistently loses 17-20 games despite a sweet projection. (I'm curious if anyone else has had this as well.) It's just driving me crazy.
And, I'm worried about the quality of head to head if 99% of the pitchers don't have splits.
And, I'm worried about the quality of head to head if 99% of the pitchers don't have splits.
If there is a completed IBC database out there I could experiment with would someone please e-mail it to me at nationals@ibcleague.com -Thanks
The last season I simmed actually has your boy going 14-8 3.30 if that makes you feel any better.Cubs wrote:Its not the overall team results that bother me. It's the individuals. Something seems strangely off. I've simmed a million seasons now and Joe Blanton consistently loses 17-20 games despite a sweet projection. (I'm curious if anyone else has had this as well.) It's just driving me crazy.
And, I'm worried about the quality of head to head if 99% of the pitchers don't have splits.
as far as my team goes, pitching wise, Lowe and Wolf are consistent. the same cannot be said for Dempster and Johnson. sometimes they sim in the low 3's and sometimes (too much for my comfort) they sim in the 5's. hitters seem pretty consistent except for Cody Ross who I have hitting .300/.360 with 30 plus homers then next time hell hit .240/.300 with 17 homers. Ive come to terms with us using Zips, but I agree with Gabe that some of the inconsistencies are bothersome. oh, and i hate that there are no splits.
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Cardinals
- Posts: 8067
- Joined: Sat May 18, 2002 1:00 am
- Location: Manch Vegas, CT
- Name: John Paul Starkey
Giants wrote:One thing I have tried to keep in mind while building my team is how well the pitchers bat. Does anyone know if Zips has any batting projection for the NL SPs as DMB did?
Dan, simple question, what happens to pitchers for whom you did not project any batting stats? How is their batting stats determined with DMB?
It more or less uses a generic non-hitter event table.
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
