Jake's 2009 Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - AL Central

[Giants]

It's been awhile, but we're back with style (big ups to anyone who gets that reference). The theme song for the AL Central is in honor of the perennial doormat Tigers not being such a doormat anymore: No More Mr. Nice Guy. Without further ado:

Chicago

Strengths: Jim moves from the competitive NL East into the AL Central at really the wrong year. The young talent on this roster is pretty impressive, as Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto, and Nelson "Bocachica" Cruz anchor the lineup, with Justin Smoak, Max Ramirez, and Gordon Beckham on the way.
Clayton Kershaw is an elite young pitcher, and Tommy Hanson is right behind him.

Weaknesses: After Kershaw and Hanson (who is probably a year away from prime time) the rotation isn't great. Ubaldo Jimenez is a nice mid-rotation piece with potential at this point and I'm not yet sold on Ricky Nolasco pitching like last year long term (and neither is Zips based on the way he sims). Also, in a tough division bullpens are crucial, and the White Sox don't have one.

Final Word: This team is in a similar place to where Detroit was two years ago. Good news, Detroit came out pretty well; bad news, they were one of the worst teams in the league and this team has all the makings of a 100 loss bunch.

Cleveland

Strengths: Um... Sean Gallagher is nice. You could do worse than Coco Crisp in centerfield, Santiago Casilla is a solid MR and he somehow got a starters projection.

Weaknesses: We've got a lineup that includes Mike Jacobs and Bobby Crosby, and a rotation that is anchored apparently by Vicente Padilla. The prospect depth is full of decent players but not anyone with superstar potential. Hurley's shoulder blowing up was brutal.

Final Word: This is a team in transition, and Kelly needs to pick a style and go for it. Last year this was an interesting team to break down because of the multiple 38 year old DH's on the roster, but this year I'm not so sure where to go.

Detroit

Strengths: The offense is huge, with Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Matt Wieters, Jose Reyes, Alex Gordon, etc. etc. A top heavy rotation with Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Roy Oswalt, Chris Sampson, and Dallas Braden should be very strong, with plenty of prospects in the pipeline. The bullpen, which was basically non-existent last year, is now anchored by Joe Nathan and the underrated Leo Nunez, though I doubt Otsuka will be a contributor this year.

Weaknesses: You know how I put the etc. etc. after those hitters? I lied. There's no one else on this team, it's all pitching prospects who won't sim. Brett, you're a contender now, that means you need some useful role players. Utley is probably down for a month, and no one else on the roster actually projects at 2b based on Zips. Also, if you want Wieters to do anything for you you're going to need a backup catcher to spell him some. A bullpen lefty would also be nice. Depth depth depth, you need it.

Final Word: The hardest thing for Brett is going to be to change his instincts. With his roster where it is, the bang for the buck of stockpiling prospects is increasingly shrinking, but can he change his style that radically?

Kansas City

Strengths: Offense is king here. Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome. The runs are going to come fast and furious. Edinson Volquez is a young horse to build a rotation around, and Joe Saunders, Jair Jurrgens, and Jesse Litsch form the core of a nice young rotation. The bullpen is deep, and it will be interesting to see whether Masterson is the 5th starter or a bullpen ace.

Weaknesses: Not enough stud arms to get over the hump.

Final Word: It's unfortunate to see the Royals in a division with the Tigers, they're a well balanced team that would be the favorite to win the NL East, NL West, or AL West.

Minnesota

Strengths: The baggy dome mojo is the only way to explain this team that has back to back division titles despite a lack of overwhelming talent. Matt Kemp is nice, and LaRoche isn't terrible. There's pretty good depth in the rotation with Weaver, Pettite, Nick Blackburn (who doesn't suck), and Scott Lewis (who does but got a good projection anyway).

Weaknesses: Injuries are decimating this pitching staff, as Jeff Francis and Billy Wagner are gone for the year, resulting in a dubious 5th starter like Greg Reynolds, Joel Pineiro, or Chuck James, and the just OK Kevin Gregg at closer. This team will get a boost if someone signs Jim Edmonds, but we're looking at guys like Jose Guillen, Mark Teahen, and Brendan Harris being prominently involved.

Final Word: This team will be hard pressed to three-peat but they certainly weren't the favorites in either of the last two years either. Also Andrew you should really trade me Bumgarner.

Last Word on the Division: This will be Detroit's to lose, Brett just needs to go about building a team instead of a farm system.

[Nationals]

While I agree that Brett has a stacked team (though, as you pointed out, not-so-deep) and that Z has a well-rounded team (that will be DECIMATED, as per usual), I would have argued (until two weeks ago) that the division favorite was not a clear-cut choice between the three dissimilar squads that we three GMs are rolling out. However, as you acutely pointed out, I've lost two pillars (Ionic, naturally) of my pitching staff, which leaves me in an uncomfortable position of having to self-acknowledge that I am probably not the favorite (at least until the injury mojo catches up with the aforementioned squads--which it will...I guarantee that the last year of the HHH will provide plenty of magic).

Two amendments--first, Heath Bell will be closing. And secondly, the Dacians had a better chance of success in war than you do in obtaining Madison Bumgarner. What Timmy Lincecum is to JP, so too is Madison Bumgarner to me. Except with far less pimping. Pimping is for those lacking confidence.

[Padres]

Chicago ... one of the worst teams in the league and this team has all the makings of a 100 loss bunch.

I respectfully disagree ...

[Rangers]

Chicago ... one of the worst teams in the league and this team has all the makings of a 100 loss bunch.

I respectfully disagree ...

Yeah, nothing I see or have simmed indicates that at all.

[Giants]

Interesting because none of my sims has given Chicago even 70 games. Gotta love the Zips.

[Cardinals]

Yeah I'm going to go ahead and disagree there too

[Rangers]

Jake, I would say that you were more than kind to my team, but you might want to take another look at how I've built my team if you think I'm hesitant to deal prospects. To get my core of Reyes, Utley, Cabrera, Holliday, Fielder, Gordon, Young, Wieters, Shields, Gallardo, Oswalt, Nathan, and I guess Nunez, Fukudome and Braden, I've dealt, among others (granted some for each other):

Travis Snider, Neftali Feliz, Dexter Fowler,Andrew McCutchen, Jarrod Parker, Wade Davis, Jesus Montero, Carlos Carrasco, Fernando Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Reid Brignac, Chris Perez, Engel Beltre, Mat Latos, Scott Elbert, Elvis Andrus, Gorkys Hernandez, Max Ramirez, Deolis Guerra, Jose Ceda, Jake McGee, Tyler Flowers, Wilmer Font, Gerardo Parra, Martin Perez and Daniel Cortes

plus a lot of guys who are now major leaguers, like Philip Hughes, Rafael Perez, Carlos Gomez, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Wood, Chris Volstad, Edwin Jackson, Franklin Morales, Joey Votto, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Casey Kotchman, Erick Aybar, Troy Tulowitzki, Danny Murphy, Collin Balester, Carlos Gonzalez, Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes and Jon Lester.

I would guess that there are very few guys in the league who are more willing to trade a good prospect or three than me. The fact is that I just ran out of good prospects before I could quite finish my team off (bench middle of the pan, back of the roto). Over the past about 15 months I have had to rebuild my farm from literally zilch to have players who have players who might help me or someone else. If I've missed out on good MLB role players over the last year, it hasn't been on purpose. It's been the increased competition to sign good FAs and the lack of prospects with trade value.

I do think that some of my young guys have a chance to take a nice step forward in obvious value this year, so hopefully they'll help me fill things out pretty soon.

[Giants]

That's not exactly what I meant, you're definitely willing to deal prospects for pieces, but I was referring to the composition of your 40 man roster, and that you've had a strong preference for packing those 26-40 spots with high risk/high reward guys, and it's much for fun to have those guys than a backup catcher and a utility infielder, and that you might be forced to trade some high upside for some low-upside but role playing guys to fill holes as a contender.

[Rangers]

That's not exactly what I meant, you're definitely willing to deal prospects for pieces, but I was referring to the composition of your 40 man roster, and that you've had a strong preference for packing those 26-40 spots with high risk/high reward guys, and it's much for fun to have those guys than a backup catcher and a utility infielder, and that you might be forced to trade some high upside for some low-upside but role playing guys to fill holes as a contender.

Well that's certainly true. Though I would make a distinction between good role players and bad role players. I like having good role players and have had them at times, just wound up dealing them for various reasons. Bad role players, I'm not so sure that a very mediocre veteran utility guy is going to do appreciably more for me than a lot of the prospects. Also, at no point have I intended to go into this season without a second catcher or another pen arm or two. Things have been stagnant across the league, probably as a result of the projection mess. I would have anticipated already making a move or two by now.

But if you think that I'd be better off, for example, having kept Jamey Carroll around than picking up Hector Gomez, I guess that's where I would agree to a philosophical difference.

[Giants]

Defensively Jamey Carroll would look real nice right about now while Utley is out...

[Rangers]

Defensively Jamey Carroll would look real nice right about now while Utley is out...

See, the difference between Carroll and Gomez is about 20 OPS points with more on-base and less power and speed. That's just not going to make a lick of difference in how they perform, particularly with how unpredictably we've seen our sims behave. And Gomez's Vg rating is at SS, which obviously has more value than a 2B Vg. That is just not enough of a positive trade-off to make any sense of giving up Gomez's promise.

Also, I'm not the most informed or anything, but I'm not sure where you're getting this Utley out until May stuff. He's going to start playing Grapefruit league games next week, still several weeks before the season starts.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... p&c_id=mlb

[Angels]

Jake - great job on these.

You pretty much nailed my Indians. Especially regarding my prospects. Lots of OK guys, some will be solid players, maybe no studs on the horizon, but I'm hoping I have enough quantity to get a few surprises.

A few exceptions though:

Crosby in my lineup? No. Aybar is my SS. Crosby is not in my 25-man and is borderline for my 40-man.

You also never mentioned my SP depth, which is brutal. And my OF depth. It's also brutal. Then there's also my IF depth. Um...wait. What was my point?

If I get 70 wins in '09, I expect an online high-five from the entire league.

[Nationals]

If I get 70 wins in '09, I expect an online high-five from the entire league.

Strasburg Sweepstakes?

[Giants]

If someone could be kind enough to finish worse than Dave's Angels I'd sure appreciate it.