The NL West was the tightest division in the IBC last year. Let's see what the crystal ball arbitrarily says will happen this year:
Arizona
Strengths: The baby backs are coming off their first playoff appearance, and return a strong young lineup anchored by Mark Teixeira, Russell Martin, and the Upton brothers, which combined with what seems like a hitter's tendency in Arizona should result in plenty of runs. In the bullpen Joey Devine is an absolute beast, and a genuine pleasure to watch, I love him as a bullpen anchor as Bobby Jenks slows down. and Brandon Morrow moves to the rotation.
Weaknesses: Speaking of the rotation... eh. Morrow should be good down the line, and Pelfrey has proven he doesn't actively suck, but these guys really need a horse. I don't think Carmona is Brandon Webb or Chien-Ming Wang and will be able to sustain high level performance, Frankie Morales is an enigma in Colorado, which is a really bad sign, and Manny Parra is underwhelming. The good news is that Wade Davis and Chris Tillman should be coming along in the next couple of years to fill some of those holes.
Final Word: A decent bet to defend their division crown, but also a risk to finish last in the league in RA, though not as bad as last year.
Colorado
Strengths: The erstwhile Brewers don't look anywhere near as bad outside of the NLC, and trading uberprospects Max Scherzer and Lars Anderson have brought in some much needed MLB pieces to make the new-look Rox more competitive. The Hebrew Hammer anchors the lineup with former MVP Justin Morneau, and check the stats, JJ Hardy might be a top 5 shortstop (stupid Matt LeRoy getting kicked out of the league, I almost had Hardy from him in an absolute rape job right before it happened). Evan Longoria is another nice piece to build around, though his early season luster faded a bit as his rookie year went on.
Weaknesses: If this were 2002, having Bartolo Colon as the ace of your staff would be terrific. In 2009? I'm not so sure. Phil Hughes, who in 2007 we would have expected to be the ace of this staff, is a major question mark, while Tim Redding, Nate Robertson, and Alfredo Aceves (assuming he projects) are back of the rotation filler. This team needs Porcello and Jhoulys Chacin to develop, and fast. Defense, especially in the outfield is a concern, with Braun being no great shakes in left, either Gary Matthews or Jay Payton (or someone else, but definitely someone below average) in center, and the genuinely awful defensively Brad Hawpe in right.
Final Word: This team was better than 100 losses a year ago, and it has improved some, .500 is a reasonable target but more is unlikely with such a dubious pitching staff in Colorado.
Los Angeles
Strengths: Up the middle with Chris Iannetta behind the plate, J-Roll and Kelly Johnson in the middle infield, and Torii Hunter in center. They say you should always build the team up the middle, and the Dodgers are set there for the moment. Francisco Liriano is a major arm at the top of the rotation, and Joakim Soria is one of the best closers in the game, while Juan Cruz, Jorge Campillo, and the underrated Chris Britton provide solid depth for the bullpen.
Weaknesses: The rest of the infield. Mark Reynolds should be playing DH somewhere, if it's possible to hit an empty 30 home runs he's the guy who can do it. Opposite him, Ryan Garko is a personal fav (my brother actually owns an old Stanford jersey of his) and a guy I had for a while, but he's looking like little more than a replacement level option at this point. There is also real potential to see Gabe Kapler or Melky Cabrera starting in an outfield corner. After Liriano the rotation looks like Ted Lilly, Edwin Jackson, Carl Pavano. Not impressed.
Final Word: The Dodgers should be competitive in this division, but they probably have to rely on the bullpen and bats, and it doesn't look like enough.
Whale's Vagina
Strengths: If Manny couldn't lead a massive offense in Petco than no one can, and after losing the division title by 1 game last year Martin decided to blow the whole thing up trading CC, Manny, Bobby Abreu, John Buck Duaner Sanchez and Matt Guerrier to Pittsburgh for Brian McCann, Gavin Floyd, Mike Moustakas, Delmon Young, and Elvis Andrus. Braun and Andrus then went to Milwaukee for Jason Bay and Stephen Drew, while Moustakas and Jordan Walden went to Milwaukee in another deal for Oliver Perez (perhaps an overpay?). So what's left is a team that is once again strong offensively, though probably less so, with an elite catcher in McCann, a top young shortstop in Drew, and a guy with .900 OPS last year at first in Aubrey Huff. Joined by Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd and Orlando Hudson at second, the Padres have one of the best infields in the national league. Also, taking Manny and Abreu out of the outfield should really improve outfield defense, though Encarnacion and Huff are question marks themselves at the corners. If you take CC out of any rotation it's going to get weaker, but Hamels, Dice-K, and Gavin Floyd are a strong top 3 and Jose Valverde is totally acceptable as the closer.
Weaknesses: I don't think anyone wants Barry Zito in a contending rotation, but he's looking at the 4 spot here depending on what the Jays do with Casey Janssen and how Kyle Kendrick's results vs. peripherals project. I'm really not a believer in Oliver Perez, I don't think he was worth one good prospect let alone two. Also, not entirely clear who's playing right field. I hope it's not Erstad. Golson for defense maybe? Will Delmon project well enough to play next year?
Final Word: A much less complete team than last year, though Martin did manage to get younger there are more questions than there are answers in my mind.
San Francisco
Strengths: So when I said in Philly's preview that the best news Nick could hear was that Bedard's shoulder is seemingly healthy, I really meant to say that about Nils and the Giants. A rotation of Peavy, Bedard, Beckett, Young and Cueto, Bonderman, Prior or Capuano could be one of the best in the league (and really, who isn't rooting for Mark Prior? Are you a communist?). JJ Putz (yiddish for penis for those of you who don't know), Brian Wilson, Jon Rauch, and Rafael Soriano if he's healthy, is pretty solid, though Masset and O'Flaherty are steps down when it comes to getting out lefties. There is great depth behind the plate in Victor Martinez (on the decline but still serviceable), Miguel Montero (I'm still a believer), and Jesus Flores (at least as a defensive handcuff for Victor).
Weaknesses: Losing Josh Hamilton hurts this team a ton offensively. I assume Nick Markakis, who is a strong young bat, is Nils' choice to anchor the offense, with the just OK Casey Kotchman at first and a fading Victor Martinez behind the plate rounding out the heart of the order. Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez are basically right handed/left handed hitting versions of each other, and third base could definitely stand for an upgrade. Chris Burke and Marco Scutaro in whatever combination they are used run the risk of providing less offense than the 2008 real life Giants with Omar Vizquel and random sucky guy up the middle after Durham was traded.
Final Word: With arms like that in that park the Giants should stay a factor throughout the season
Last Word on the Division: Expect a 5 team clusterfuck in the standings, kind of like last year, and it is totally reasonable that all 5 teams in the division see time in first place this season. At the end of the day I'm pretty wowed by the Giants rotation, and pretty concerned about the D-Backs, so Nils is my pick.
Jake's 2009 Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - NL West
Moderator: Giants
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Padres
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Goldstein likes him though - and this is a "projection" league:Athletics wrote:Ya I did, I don't dislike him (and my bad for my eyes slipping past him when I scanned your roster), but he's not a game changer to me, I see him as a strong #3
[Rays] Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (as of Opening Day 2009)
1. David Price, LHP
2. B.J. Upton, CF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Scott Kazmir, LHP
5. Matt Garza, RHP
6. Tim Beckham, SS
7. Wade Davis, RHP
8. Dioner Navarro, C
9. Desmond Jennings, CF
10. Matt Joyce, LF
Those first five are about as good as it gets in all of baseball. The Rays have several young starting pitchers who are at star level, but Price should be able to establish himself as a true ace. Upton over Longoria may be controversial, but the tools and the position still give Upton more upside–you really can't go wrong with either one, as they're both superstars. Kazmir is a star-level pitcher, possibly more, and Garza could be at the same level as early as this year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8568
Sure he could be, I could be wrong which is what's fun about prospecting, but my gut on him says no. I'm also not sure Kazmir is a star level pitcher considering how poorly he does at getting deep into games. This year's Rays rotation reminds me of those Marlins rotations with AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Brad Penny, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis, all with major star potential but not all achieved it. My gut says he turns out like a pre-injury Clement, though a little number crunching has him looking more like Penny. As I said in the top 100 thread, the lame thing about scouting is that sometimes all you can really say is what your gut tells you, and my gut says strong #3-second division #2 to Matt Garza, which isn't enough to carry that rotation, and since it's my arbitrary prediction I'll let it stand there.
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Orioles
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Nice work on these, Jake. Good reads all.
As for Garza, I'm not sure that he can be relied upon to man the front end of a rotation until he shows the ability to consistently strike out big leaguers. He's talented, and has as much of a chance to "make the leap" as most highly regarded young SP his age this season. If you're going by BP's Rays top 10 u-25 this season, I personally don't think Garza at #5 is very telling because #'s 1-4 (Price, Upton, Longoria, Kazmir) seem to me a significantly superior group to 6-10 (Beckham, Davis, Navarro, Jennings, Joyce).
As for Garza, I'm not sure that he can be relied upon to man the front end of a rotation until he shows the ability to consistently strike out big leaguers. He's talented, and has as much of a chance to "make the leap" as most highly regarded young SP his age this season. If you're going by BP's Rays top 10 u-25 this season, I personally don't think Garza at #5 is very telling because #'s 1-4 (Price, Upton, Longoria, Kazmir) seem to me a significantly superior group to 6-10 (Beckham, Davis, Navarro, Jennings, Joyce).
2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
