Jake's 2009 Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - NL East

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 5:52 pm

Hey everyone, Spring Training is rolling and I'm bored, so I thought I'd put this out there and see what happens. As always, my decisions are totally arbitrary and designed to stimulate discussion, enjoy at your own risk.

Edit: The Bedard trade totally snuck past on me, arbitrarily speaking it doesn't change my pick of Philly to win

Atlanta

Strengths: Brandon has been trying really hard to rebuild before getting sucked back into competitiveness since the Bocachica experiment of 2007. Most of those big pieces (Dye, Carpenter, Nathan, Morneau) are gone, so it looks like he's achieved his goal of building a team capable of losing a buttload of games this year. As far as strengths on the big league team go you could do worse than Cristian Guzman at shortstop and Carlos Gomez is ok if you like that sort of thing in center, so the up the middle foundation is decent. Also still a couple of decent pen arms with Weathers, Marte, and Neshek if healthy.

Weaknesses: There a few prospects who have lost their luster in this group, Hermida, Fields, LaRoche, and arguably Gomez and Milledge as well. Brad Penny and Pudge Rodriguez stick out on this roster like sore thumbs and probably need to be moved, there's certainly no point in breaking down this team's chances of winning this year.

Final Word: I'm not quite sure of the direction the rebuild of this team is going to take. Brandon has done a decent job of assembling talented prospects, but his future seems very dependent on Lars and Michael Main (who is fast becoming a guy who's such an underrated prospect that he's becoming overrated) becoming stars and Brett Wallace sticking at third.

Florida

Strengths: Vacek finally got to the playoffs last year and Jason didn't, which is kind of a shame because to me it would have been hilarious if Jason's cinderella run had gotten the O's to the playoffs after Vacek left. In any case, the core of Florida's lineup is the best in the division with David Ortiz, Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, and Troy Tulowitzki anchoring what should be one of the top offenses in the National League. The bullpen should also be a plus with a returning Chris Ray joining Trevor Hoffman for one last go round, while the first free agent to sign this off-season, Jeremy Affeldt, is a strong option from the left side.

Weaknesses: The rotation took a major hit when Ben Sheets failed his Rangers physical. After having their ace for almost a full season last year it's hard to imagine seeing Sheets for the majority of this season, which hurts. #2 Justin Verlander took a major step back last year, and while he should be fine it's unlikely he can be counted on to be an ace this year. The rest of the rotation is full of question marks like Gio Gonzalez, Micah Owings (who should probably start in right field), Adam Miller, and Dustin McGowan coming off injury. Speaking of the outfield, Carl Crawford should be a fine bounceback candidate in left and Hunter Pence is solid in right and can do a passable center, but Hideki Matsui is likely no better than replacement when defense is factored in, and that other corner or CF is a hole.

Final Word: The Marlins are more vulnerable than last year, and Big Papi isn't getting any younger. This team will be hard pressed to defend it's division title, hopefully Ben Sheets will return sooner than expected and provide them a lift (I think we say that every year).

New York

Strengths: The Rockies move to New York after a disappointing cellar finish in last season's NL West. It's definitely rebuilding time in Citi Field, with the team's biggest strength being in the bullpen behind closer Brad Lidge, and the staff as a whole should do better closer to sea level. Jack Wilson and Troy Glaus form a solid if unspectacular left side of the infield, though Glaus being out for the first month is a big bummer. Fangraphs claimed that Endy Chavez was so good defensively that he was as valuable as Adam Dunn in left, so a Willy Tavarez/Endy Chavez pairing could make for one of the best defensive outfields in the league and ease some of the concerns about Raul Ibanez playing defense every day.

Weaknesses: Speaking of Glaus, injuries are killing this team, who's top four starters (Tim Hudson, John Maine, Daniel Cabrera and Shawn Hill) all finished last season on the DL. Hudson had TJ in August and is out for 2009, which basically torpedoes the pitching staff. The lineup will suffer from leaving Coors, and doesn't appear likely to produce a .900 OPS hitter, or possibly even .850.

Final Word: Looking like a long year for the IBC Mets. I know John tries to compete every year, but it will really be something if he can pull it off with this bunch.

Philadelphia

Strengths: The best possible news Nick could hear is that Erik Bedard pitched today and had no issues with his shoulder. Much like last year, Bedard is the key to a rotation that should be one of the strongest in the league with Bedard, Lowe, Dempster, Randy Wolf, and Josh Johnson. In the lineup, I'm bummed because I guessed wrong between Hinske and Gerut, leaving Gerut on the waiver wire for Philly. Defensively he's not the best, but he should have one of the top bats in CF in the league, and be one of the anchors in a lineup that includes Lance Berkman, Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Shane Victorino. The Phils also look to have the strongest bench in the division with guys like Greg Dobbs, Chris Coste, Matt Stairs, and Garrett Anderson available to pinch hit if they don't start.

Weaknesses: Injuries and defense are major question marks for Philly. Bedard, Blalock, and Johnson have been injury prone in the past, and an up the middle defense of Coste/Pena, Young, Ronnie Belliard, Jody Gerut should be a major concern, as should the potential of Stairs or Garret Anderson starting in a corner. With JC Romero suspended the bullpen is a little bit thin, though Francisco Cordero is a strong choice to close.

Final Word: If Bedard is really healthy than Philadelphia looks to be the most balanced and talented team in the division.

Washington

Strengths: Has Ken lost his DMB employment or is it just the stink of Washington that gets on everybody? The Nats had the best pitching staff in the league last year, but were unable to get more than 2 games above .500, fading in September out of the NL East race. In Jay Bruce Washington has an anchor to build a franchise around, and a 1B platoon of Kendry Morales and Josh Phelps could equal the production of some of the league's top first basemen (no, I am not a believer in Todd Helton). Khalil Greene was just atrocious last year, but hit 27 bombs in real life in 2007 and is out of San Diego, so he has a chance to be one of the better shortstops in the league, while Gerald Laird should be solid behind the plate.

Weaknesses: A couple of guys who were big last year took steps backward, especially Jake Westbrook and Bronson Arroyo, so a repeat dominating pitching performance is unlikely. In fact it's entirely possible that Dana Eveland is the best pitcher on the staff this year. I don't think anyone wants that. Lineup depth is a problem, Todd Helton would have been a perfect fit for this team 5 years ago, but his power is gone, even hitting in Colorado he hasn't had more than 20 home runs since 2004. The rest of the lineup looks to be filled out by guys like Alfredo Amezaga and Nyjer Morgan, who provide defense but not much else.

Final Word: This team needs some bats, at the moment it's reminding me of the real life 2008 Giants.

Last Word on the Division

This division really comes down to two injury prone pitchers, Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard. Whichever starter throws more innings will likely determine which team wins, I'm guessing Bedard and picking Nick to take home the crown this year.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:02 pm

Umm, what about Soriano, Kendrick, Beltre, and even Choo (ck the projections), don't they help the offense? Amezaga and Morgan will be lucky to be active.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:21 pm

Bedard is on Philly?

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:25 pm

Compared to Philadephia and Florida's lineup, no I don't see those guys as all that exciting. Soriano is OK, but not an anchor, Kendrick has to play to help the offense, Beltre I do like but he probably helps your defense more, and Choo is going to give you an .800 OPS out of a COF spot with average defense, which is easy enough to put together with guys off the scrap heap.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 8:26 pm

My rotation largely depends on the projections of youngster's - David Huff, Jeremy Hellickson, Jon Niese, Phil Coke. A few decent projections there, behind what should be a very good pen (Lidge, Geary, Accardo, Feliciano, etc) & and might be able to keep the boat afloat while Hudson takes his time coming back.

That being said, if Cardenas, Donald, Cunningham & Murphy don't get decent projections, i'm out. I do think Murphy will be decent in the OF though.

It's not always the big names that win games, it's piecing the right projections together. A ZIPS season would probably kill me.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:10 pm

I think you have a pretty good chance at getting Murphy and Donald (though I'm not sure Murphy is really a good enough hitter to play in the corner), but Cardenas and Cunningham, eh. I haven't seen Cardenas but I have seen Cunningham and he's the epitome of average to me, I just don't get his appeal. Obviously if you get DiFelice projections for a couple of those prospects you'll be fine, but I'm thinking mid 4.00s at best.

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Feb 27, 2009 12:37 pm

depending on projections, im hoping Cody Ross can start in LF. he is obviously much better than Garret/Stairs defensively. at catcher i will have John Baker starting, not Coste/Pena. as for Coste, he is a horribly underrated catcher. he rarely lets a ball get by him (i think he had two passed balls all season?) and can throw his fair share of runners out. im actually pretty happy with the way my defense shapes up. Baker is weak defensively but if he can get a projection with a near .400 OBP ill be happy to look past it. Young and Sanchez as my double play team could be worse. id have to say the X-factor on my team (since its obviously not Bedard) is Hank Blalock.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Sat Feb 28, 2009 10:09 pm

Jake, you are a a crazy fool for picking against the Marlins in the NL East. The team should be improved offensively, defensively and in the bullpen. Though the loss off Sheets hurts my rotation, the acquisition of Scherzer at least gives me a guy with a chance (if slim) of approximating his performance. Dempster/Lowe is a stronger front of the rotation for 09 than Verlander/Scherzer, but IF McGowan comes back healthy as expected in May, some combination of the rest of the arms I've assembled (Gio/Miller/Owings/Duke) should be enough to fill the 4/5 spots and keep the offense in the game. Crawford/Kinsler/Aramis/Ortiz/Soto/Tulo is as strong a 1-6 as there is in the NL (though the Reds are pretty gross, and will score more). Also, Ortiz is really the only weak point defensively. I mean, no disrespect to my NL East foes, b/c there are some quality squads that I think could creep up on me, but I'll take my 25. Even without Sheets.