Isn't it exciting? A simulated postseason. Let's go series by series and roll with some picks, and I'll do the same for the next round when we get there.
Oakland vs. Toronto
After coming out like gangbusters Toronto scuffled towards the end of the season, struggling to hold off an upstart Baltimore team. Oakland won with a bunch of no-names and has-beens. Let's check the matchups out on paper:
Toronto Rotation: The Jays are anchored by Johan Santana, who went 18-6 4.57, much worse than expected. Youngster Andy Sonnastine was the most consistent pitcher after Santana, though he has tailed off since the end of the season. Some combination of veterans Tim Wakefield and Paul Byrd the inconsistent Ian Snell and sim freak Bob Cramer will round out the rotation, none of whom you'd be really excited about having the start a playoff game for you. The danger for Toronto is that two of their three best starters statistically are left handed, and the A's have the 3rd highest SLG in the American League against lefties, with platoon bats Bill Hall and Mike Cameron OPSing well over .900 against them.
Oakland Rotation: The Miracle Rotation of DiFelice, Mulvey, Hardy, and Mazone, has given way to established starters Brett Myers and Gil Meche, who bring some veteran stability to the rotation behind Dan Haren. DiFelice is a legitimate Cy Young candidate, going 19-7 2.97 with a 216-40 K/BB. Myers is 7-0 with a 2.43 in 10 starts since being picked up from Washington, and Meche is 3-1 3.97 since arriving from the Reds. Whether Brian Mazone makes an appearance or not, the depth of this rotation makes it playoff caliber.
Advantage: Oakland
Toronto Bullpen: Takashi Saito (4-1 2.19 25 SV), Matt Thornton (5-3 2.95 8 SV), and Justin Duchsherer (0-2 3.02 2 SV) were a terrific trio at the top of the pen. Unfortunately Duke will be out for the playoffs, and the venerable Russ Springer (6-3 4.09 10 SV) will try to take his place. The bullpen is really lacking for a strong lefty after Thornton, a big disadvantage against a platoon heavy team like Oakland, though Cramer may fill that roll if he isn't in the rotation. Depth is slim with guys like Timlin, Herrera, Speier, and Brocail all posting ERA's of 4.56 or worse.
Oakland Bullpen: If it wasn't for Joba and DiFelice then Huston Street could be considered a Cy Young candidate. Street served more as a bullpen ace than a closer, going 7-3 with 32 saves in 65 appearances, many over multiple innings, with a 2.29 ERA and 103/22 K/BB ratio. Lefty Taylor Tankersley (4-0 2.36) and righty Chad Qualls (6-4 2.91) are joined by lefty Dennys Reyes, righty Brad Ziegler, and long man Kevin Mulvey to form one of the deepest, if not most dominant, bullpens in the league.
Advantage: Oakland
Toronto Lineup:Toronto's .859 OPS was the best in the American League. The offense is led by Jack Cust (.955 OPS 49 HR) and Carlos Pena (1.095 OPS 47 HR) on the left side and Ryan Ludwick (1.045 OPS 33 HR) and Derrek Lee (.943 OPS 16 HR) from the right side. Hell, even former A's castoff Jason Michaels had an OBP of .398, that's nuts. This is a lineup that top to bottom has very few holes and also plays adequate if not spectacular defense, so it will be interesting to see how many runs they can put up against the best staff statistically in the American League.
Oakland Lineup: The A's lineup is missing two huge pieces in Frank Thomas and Mark Ellis, though the breakouts of Chris Davis (.841 OPS 24 HR) and Mike Hessman (.890 OPS 15 HR in 162 AB) have been nice. This team is full of a lot of guys with terrific platoon splits, and has won with some over the top performances in the clutch, so here's hoping we get our chances at Saito. Though the offensive prowess has not really been there, the Oakland defense not named Chris Davis is very strong, finishing second in the AL in fielding this season.
Advantage: Toronto
Prediction: Generally good pitching beats good hitting, and Toronto was able to catch a team with holes in the pitching staff in Baltimore while losing to a team with an unreal pitching staff (when healthy) in New York.
Oakland in 5 games
New York vs. Minnesota
New York Rotation: Joba Chamberlain, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez. Nuff Said
Minnesota Rotation: Jeff Francis (11-6 2.92), Jered Weaver (13-12 3.83), and Andy Pettite (14-8 4.90) have been solid, though Pettite has given up more runs than you would like. Greg Reynolds was a pleasant surprise at the end of the year, going 4-2 3.76 in 6 starts. Francis might have a chance, but it will take a Herculean effort from the rest of this staff to hold off the Yankee lineup.
Advantage: New York
New York Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, and BJ Ryan are monsters at the back end of the pen (though Mariano just had shoulder surgery, can he pitch?), while guys like Joe Beimel, Eric Gagne, and Kyle Farnsworth fill up the middle innings. You'd better try and chase the starters early, because the back end of the pen is going to be unhittable by anyone (except the Gritty Gutty Cardiac A's).
Minnesota Bullpen: The Twins took a major hit both for the 2008 postseason and for 2009 when Billy Wagner went down with Tommy John surgery. Rafael Betancourt (6-2 1.88 1 SV) is the only active reliever with an ERA under 4.40, so Andrew will need his starters to go deep into games to have a chance.
Advantage: New York
New York Lineup: No holes, lots of power, lots of patience, lots of contact (only AL team to bat .300 and led the league n OBP), and oh yeah also the best fielding percentage in the league as well. Don't really have anything new to say about this group.
Minnesota Lineup: The Twins did surprisingly well on offense this year, posting the 5th best OPS in the league ahead of teams like KC, Oakland, and Boston, all of whom projected better in the preseason. Mark Teahen (.924 OPS 14 HR) Jhonny Peralata (.810 OPS 30 HR) and Ty Wigginton (.922 OPS 10 HR after being acquired) paced the AL Central champs. This is the epitome of a good but not great lineup, and now they are going up against a murderer's row of aces.
Advantage: New York
Prediction: On paper there really isn't a matchup here, though of course on paper there really isn't a matchup to the Yankees at all. I know I predicted a first round loss for JB in my arbitrary Spring Training preview, but at that point I was anticipating being the team to knock him out. Andrew will need some baggy dome mojo to beat the Yankees, and I don't know if there will be enough.
New York in 4 games
Stay tuned tomorrow or maybe later tonight depending on how bored I am for the National League.
Jake's Arbitrary Playoff Preview Part I
Moderator: Giants
