Rays of Hope

[RedSox]

Could 2009 be the year the Rays pitching turns the corner? Given the same cruddy run production next year, but with a 1 run per game decrease in runs allowed, the Pythagorean Method suggests an increase in winning percentage from .351 to .498 (57 to 80 wins for those of you who don't like math). Is it possible? That remains to be seen, but at almost the 1/3 pole the Rays have some positive work being done at the MLB level.

In MLB by ERA:

Aaron Laffey - 1.60 ERA, 33.2 IP, 24 H, 6 BB, 20 K, 0.89 WHIP, .194 BAA, ZERO HR allowed.

I know this isn't a huge sample, but he dominated at every level last year and held his own with the Indians at the end of the season and in the playoffs, posting a .287/.340/.388 line. In 83 innings his career MLB ERA is 3.36. Lefties have been helpless against him this year to the tune of .077/.100/.077 with RHH not being much better for an overall .194/.242/.210 total. Excluding his sick MiLB numbers, in the last 2 years he's put up a .250/.302/.317 career MLB line with 2.15 GO/AO and 2.5 K/BB. Look for a good sim from him next year.

Todd Wellemeyer - 3.25 ERA, 61 IP, 49 H, 22 BB, 49 K, 1.16 WHIP, .221 BAA.

Wellemeyer? WTF? Yeah, I thought the same thing, but ever since he began starting last year he's been pretty good. He's put up a sub 3.5 ERA as a starter in the last 2 years. With the Cards last year, batters hit .224/.311/.353 off him with RHH only hitting .200. This year RHH are going at .214/.284/.366 with an overall line of .221/.290/.365.

Jesse Litsch - 3.57 ERA, 58 IP, 59 H, 8 BB, 34 K, 1.16 WHIP, .265 BAA.

Another young pitcher fresh off his first career shutout yesterday, Litsch owns a career ERA of 3.73 in over 160 innings. Last year RHH hit only .229 off him. This year it's .229/.267/.448 with a overall line of .265/.290/.429. He gets GB's with a 1.44 GO/AO ratio. His K/BB ratio is 4.25/1.

John Lannan - 3.57 ERA, 58 IP, 62 H, 19 BB, 38 K, 1.40 WHIP, .274 BAA

A northern pitcher with few innings on his arm, Lannan has continued to improve in his second year in the bigs. Owner of a career 3.79 ERA, Lannan gets a ton of groundballs to the tune of 2.23 GO/AO (67% of his in play outs are groundouts). His vs batting line on the year is .274/.335/.403. RHH are slugging only .373 off him. He has a 2.0 K/BB ratio.

Andrew Miller - 5.33 ERA, 50.2 IP, 64 H, 20 BB, 44 K, 1.66 WHIP, .312 BAA.

Without a doubt Miller has the best arm, highest ceiling, yet has been the biggest disapointment of the group. I've turned down a lot of offers for him in the past year, but even I was starting to wonder if he was ever going to pan out after he went 2 consecutive starts without a K in April. Luckily no one caught me in sell low mode as Miller has turned it around in May - 25 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 26 K, 0.92 WHIP, .178 BAA. No sense dwelling on the season numbers because they're still terrible, but I will note he has lowered his ERA almost 4 points since May 3rd.

Not the sexiest list ever, but they all should be useful next year and all of them except Wellemeyer are only 23 years old.

Later I'll look at guys laboring in MiLB that may sim for me next year.