Jake's Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - NL East

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:34 am

NL East, it's your turn. As Vacek said, there might be some competition for him in 2009. Lucky for him this preview is all about 2008. Unlucky for him, Ken's the DMB cheater, and the "Bocachica" Braves are still around, you can't count them out. So without further ado.

Atlanta

Strengths - Recognizable veteran names like Pudge Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Luis Gonzalez, Pedro Martinez, Bob Wickman, Jeff Cirillo (really, he's on an IBC roster, I know I was surprised too), and El Duque. Youngsters like Jacoby Ellsbury, Garret Atkins, and Howie Kendrick, plus Joe Nathan anchoring the bullpen and Justin Morneau at cleanup to satisfy Brandon's Twins jones. The heart of the order with Atkins, Dye and Morneau should provide runs while Ellsbury is exciting leading off. The outfield is a strength with newcomer Kosuke Fukudome, who should provide a solid rookie projection in LF, with Ellsbury and Dye and Gonzalez as the likely 4th OF depending on projections. Nathan is a top tier closer, and Atkins to Morneau is a nice corner infield combo.

Weaknesses - Taking advantage of all the cool things Shawn does, seriously bro fill out your depth chart, it would make this review process a lot easier. Also I'm not to keen on any middle infield that includes Cristian Guzman or Juan Uribe at SS, you can probably find better projectors on the FA scrap heap. The major concern for this team is the inevitable decline of vets Dye, Pedro, El Duque, Kenny Rogers, Pudge, Wickman, well I can keep going but you get the theme, plus most of these guys are injury risks, and the rotation isn't deep enough to sustain long term injuries to Pedro or the Gambler. Anyone interested should track down Brian Bannister's explanation about how he's the only pitcher ever who won't regress to the mean on BABIP, nice that he thinks that far ahead but I'm not a believer, though he'll be a fine fourth starter this year.

Final Word - The Braves look the team best poised to challenge the Marlins for the NL East title, but there are serious long term questions, I'm reconsidering passing my Team 1997 mantle to Kelly, Brandon might lay a better claim to it.

Florida

Strengths - This was a 95 win team even after getting beaten up by the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays for the last few years. There are good young pieces locked in at key positions including Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler and Hunter Pence. Geovany Soto is unproven, but has enough potential that he should get a strong projection. David Ortiz and Aramis Ramirez bop from the middle of the order, we'll see how Big Papi adapts to playing infield full time. Sheets and Verlander are a good 1-2 punch, and there is solid depth in the rotation; though it doesn't quite match up with the elite rotations in Boston, New York, and St. Louis it can compete with most contenders out there, especially if Owings and Bonser improve. It will be interesting to see how Dan adapts to the NL style of play, and whether he tweaks his bench to fit that style. Several versataile pieces like Jack Hannahan, Scott Hairston, and even Nomar can play several positions and provide decent pinch-hitting options, as does Micah Owings if he gets EX power again.

Weaknesses - There are still some holes on the bench, most notably backups at shortstop, catcher and centerfield, and I'm not huge on the bullpen. After Trevor Hoffman the only guy I really like is Jamie Walker, who with a name like that should really be a hot girl (yeah I stole it from Simmons, its still funny). But the bullpen is aging, and Hoffman can't keep going forever.

Final Word - When the biggest question mark in the lineup is Godzilla we have a team that's probably doing OK.

New York

Strengths - By trading NL MVP Jimmy Rollins for Ryan Zimmerman Jim seems to be retooling for the future rather than trying to win it all this year. The team has an interesting young core, with Zimmerman, Joey Votto, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez (I sure hope he isn't counting on Nate Schierholtz) expected to figure prominently into a future lineup. Zimmerman should benefit from being out of cavernous RFK, and Votto should be solid as well. Delmon in Minnesota will be interesting, hopefully he can stay sane with all the crazy things that happen in the baggy dome. Some of these youngsters won't project this year, but they do form a solid core for the future. On the hill the Rockies dynamic duo of Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales figure into the top of the rotation both this year and down the road, with the Mets counting on the future development of Sean Marshall, Radhames Liz, Jake Arrieta, and Clayton Kershaw to turn the team into a contender. Meanwhile Josh Fogg and Ricky Nolasco will eat innings this year. In the bullpen youngster Matt Capps leads the charge, with veteran spare parts filling in the rest.

Weaknesses - This lineup doesn't have the firepower to compete with Atlanta and Florida this year. Catcher is a question mark, as two decent bats with injury histories and defensive concerns look to man the position. Second base is a bit of a mess, with Danny Richar, Marlon Anderson and the offensive-minded Izturis brother (I love backhanded complimented) are in the mix. Also there are the inherent risks associated with young pitching. We all know them.

Final Word - Look for this team to mature in 2010 or so, meanwhile this year they should finish around or a little below .500, far enough away to not be close to the money but close enough to prevent a top draft pick. Don't you hate seasons like that?

Philadelphia

Strengths - A four strong rotation with Bedard, Huddy, Gorz, and Lowe is a good place to start. Bedard, which is first of all the weakest name for an ace pitcher in baseball, is going to be the key to Philadelphia's chances. If he can neutralize Atlanta and Florida's lineups Nick may have a shot at his second title. If he's not a true ace then this is just a nice team. The lineup keys around Lance Berkman and Aaron Rowand, who will try and match what he did in a walk year in Philly last year with the Giants. Good luck Aaron, I look forward to watching you kill yourself running into the brick wall in right center (sorry, had to take a potshot at the Giants, couldn't help it). Shane Victorino should be solid in right, and though Jason Varitek seems on the decline he is still a better option at catcher than most teams in the league have.

Weaknesses - You know I give the Giants a lot of shit for counting on a 41 year old shortstop and not having a legitimate option behind him. Well Philly is in the same situation. I'm firmly in the camp that there's no excuse for playing Omar Vizquel, but even I like him better than Ronny Cedeno. At least Nick didn't sign Vizquel to a contract with a vesting option based on playing time... Anyway, Grudzielanek is below average and declining at second, and Hank Blalock is just OK at third, though maybe his Adam and Eve surgery will turn his career around. I also have some concerns about the bullpen after Cordero.

Final Word - This team is going to have to lean on its rotation to have a chance, they could stay in the conversation in this division a long way through this season.

Washington

Strengths - First of all the fact that Ken programmed the DMB software can't be discounted. Ken impressively managed to get Andrew to part with Ryan Howard, who anchors a lineup that should benefit from moving out of RFK. Adrian Beltre showed signs of life as a legit cleanup hitter at the end of last season, and Brian Roberts (HGH aside) is one of the top second basemen in baseball. Carlos Quentin still has a ton of potential, and the Citizen's Bank park effect might get him 25 homers. Snell and Arroyo are solid starters, though Westbrook may not project as well as he did last year. Khalil Greene is a solid if unspectacular option at shortstop.

Weaknesses - The bullpen isn't strong, and a legitimate closer will have to show up either by trade or projection for this team to compete. The rotation depth isn't great, as Arroyo and Snell are #2's at best, so there is no ace. There are also questions at catcher, where there are three light hitting, decent defense guys (though Dave Ross might have the best chance of a projection based on 2006). Coco Crisp has been an offensive bust in Boston, though Ken values defense over offense at that spot (see Winn, Randy), and Crisp certainly fills that description, so maybe this is a strength, but to me if you lose your job to a rookie in the World Series that makes you a weakness. Matt Stairs might actually give a better projection than Matt Diaz in left field. Also Pedro Feliz isn't in the starting lineup, that's a big problem.

Final Word - An interesting mix of talent that seems a step behind the top three teams in the division, but with Ken around, you never know.

Final Word on the Division - Back when I used to gamble I'd actually get in trouble by doing more in depth analysis, I'd talk myself into really stupid things, and by the end of the night instead of being a big winner I'd end up short. Why am I mentioning this? Because looking at this division I've partially convinced myself its wide open, but really its not, this is Florida's to lose. Sorry guys.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 4:54 pm

While I do not disagree that the Marlins are the favorite, I do disagree that this is the worst division in the IBC.

I do not believe that the Marlins, nor any other team in this division, will run away from the rest of the NLE. More importantly I am certain that the teams in the NLE will be very competitive with teams outside the division.

As for the IBC Mets, I have made no secert of the fact that it is my plan to field a better team this year then last year - with the understanding that I am truly shooting to be competitive within my own division by 2009. And though the Mets may finish as a 5th place team this year I expect that the Mets winning percentage will be better in games played outside the NLE then games played with intradivisional teams ...

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 7:45 pm

Jim I meant weakest in terms of board participation. The whole point of this exercise is to get the board talking baseball, if there's no commentary then I've failed.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 7:48 pm

The NLE is still the weakest division in the league anyhow...

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:54 pm

concerns in the bullpen after cordero? kidding right? speier and howry are excellent 7th and 8th inning guys then i got pinto, romero, sarfate, mathieson ... my bullpen is sick, come on now. and vizquel hitting 8th doesnt hurt my team enough for me worry about it. see you guys in the world series. oh yea.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:34 pm

Been offline for a week, but looking forward to reading this and writing an unnecessarily long post about it (b/c that's how I roll).

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:57 pm

Just don't delete it Bren.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:22 pm

I make no promises... I've gotta get my fix in eventually...

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Sun Apr 06, 2008 11:53 am

Great work on this Jake. A good read.

I also am tempted to say that while probably the favorite going in, the NL East is more wide open than expected. It doesn't have multiple powerhouses like the ALE and NLC, but there are no easy outs in this division, and whoever's at the top come August/September will have to be wary of the middle/bottom teams hurting them late in the season.

Seems like an extended injury to Sheets or Hoffman could be enough to open the door for Atlanta or Philly to steal the division. The Mets are a year or two away. The Nationals' recent deals shipping off Howard and Roberts may help them in the long run, but probably torpedoed their shot at the division this season. Philly has some quality SP and enough pop to make a run. The Pedro injury hurt Atlanta, but if they can coax solid performances out of the likes of Bannister, El Duque and Kevin Slowey they can remain in the mix long enough to either get Petey back or make a move to add SP.

Don't count out the possibility of the Marlins pulling off a big trade after some disappointing defensive ratings (or lack of any ratings) have forced Carl Crawford to play RF unrated. At the very least I'll be keeping my ear to the ground for available arms to improve my bullpen.