Down on the Farm - 2026

Brandon Brown's Blog

Moderator: Braves

User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From KLaw's Just Missed list: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/699759 ... keith-law/

Slade Caldwell, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 182 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 20
Caldwell has a chance to be a pure leadoff hitter in the old-fashioned sense, a guy who sees a ton of pitches to try to get on base and to show hitters behind him what a pitcher’s arsenal is like, hitting for average without a ton of power and adding some value on the bases with his legs.

He finished eighth in all of the minors last year with 91 walks, third among teenagers (with Alfredo Duno above him), as he walked over 15 percent of the time at both levels of A-ball in his full-season debut. It’s a combination of factors, including pitch recognition, a small strike zone (he is a legit 5-foot-7, regardless of what the listed height is), and one of the lowest swing rates in baseball. Caldwell swung at 34 percent of pitches he saw last year, which is lower than any big leaguer in 2025, including a very low chase rate of 15 percent, but also a low 56 percent swing rate at pitches in the zone — only Chase Meidroth and Bryson Stott had lower Z-swing rates among qualifying MLB hitters last year. The result of all of this is that he gets on base a ton, but nearly half of his strikeouts last year came on called third strikes, as he needs to start to swing the bat more.

Caldwell is a plus defender already in center with good instincts and has shown improvements already since signing with the Diamondbacks as their first-round pick in 2024. He is strong for his size — I met him at the Futures Game, and he looks like Michelangelo just carved him out of marble, albeit a very short slab — and should be able to impact the ball enough to hit for average with some gap power. The concerns I’ve heard from scouts are that he’s too passive and won’t hit the ball in the seats enough. I agree with the former, but if his profile is really 60 or better defense with solid batting averages, that’s an everyday player. The Diamondbacks promoted him after he hit .294/.460/.454 in 48 Low-A games, after which he hit .238/.370/.311 in High A as a 19-year-old. We might see him a little differently had he spent more time at the lower level.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA's Marlins list for our newest draftee: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2 ... =preseason

3. Aiva Arquette
SS

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R

Age: 22

BA Grade/Risk: 60/Average

Adjusted Grade: 50

Track Record: Arquette broke out in 2024 at Washington, where he hit .325/.384/.574 with 12 home runs. He then transferred to Oregon State in 2025, shifted from second base to shortstop and elevated his game further by slashing .354/.461/.654 with 19 home runs. The Marlins drafted him seventh overall and signed him for a slot value bonus of $7,149,900.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Arquette looks the part of a modern slugger. His free and easy righthanded swing generates above-average bat speed and plus raw power, allowing him to drive the ball to all fields while punishing mistakes to his pull side. Though swing-and-miss and chase tendencies have accompanied that pop, he refined his approach in 2025, showing improved plate discipline and producing a thunderous 93.5 mph average exit velocity with a 59% hard-hit rate. At times, he over-corrected—his 60% zone-swing rate reflected a bit of hesitation—but the overall approach was more measured and mature. Arquette moves well for his size, grading as an average runner once underway. He’s never been a true basestealing threat, yet he matched his college high with seven steals in 27 games at High-A Beloit to align with the Marlins’ emphasis on basepath aggression. Defensively, he’s shown enough fluidity and arm strength to stick at shortstop, with above-average instincts, reliable hands and a plus, accurate arm from a lower slot. His physicality and offensive profile could ultimately fit at third base if a move becomes necessary.

The Future: Arquette’s combination of body control and powerful frame made him one of few sure-thing middle infielders in a 2025 draft class thin on them. He has the bat, arm strength and internal clock to remain at a premium position and should at least reach the upper minors in 2026.

Scouting Grades Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Field: 50 | Arm: 60
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA's 10 Breakout Pitching Prospects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -baseball/

Stharlin Torres, RHP, Reds
nStuff+ Arsenal Score: 110
Strike Rate: 71.5%
I’ve written about Torres before, and he was arguably my favorite complex league pitching prospect from 2025. He combines good stuff with plus in-game strike-throwing that should portend future success.

Torres throws three pitches in a four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup with plus control. His four-seam fastball sits 92-94 mph, touching 95 at peak with plus ride, armside run and a deceptive fastball plane. His primary secondary is low-80s curveball with two-plane break. He’s also worked on adding a slider that we don’t yet have data on. Torres’ changeup has plus potential with excellent vertical separation off his fastball. The offspeed drives high whiff and chase rates, and Torres shows the ability to consistently land the pitch in the strike zone.

Torres has a nice combination of present stuff and strikes that could see him develop into a top pitching prospect in the coming years. His undersized frame will likely be his greatest limiting factor.

Antwone Kelly, RHP, Pirates
nStuff+ Arsenal Score: 117
Strike Rate: 65.5%
The Pirates’ pitching development has gotten a lot of deserved credit for the development of Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and—to a lesser extent given his pedigree—Paul Skenes in recent seasons. While Kelly lacks the hype of that trio, he’s another example of the Pirates’ ability to develop pitching, as he possesses one of the better combinations of stuff and strike-throwing in the upper-minors at present.

A breakout 2025 season saw Kelly split his year between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona, and he produced similar numbers at each spot. The Aruba native was added to the Pirates’ 40-man roster this offseason and could be in play for Pittsburgh at some point in 2026.

Kelly mixes four pitches in a four-seam fastball that sits 96-98 mph and touches 100, a slider, cutter and changeup. The offspeed is his best pitch with good vertical separation off his fastball and the ability to drive whiffs in and out of the zone. Both of his breaking ball shapes have cutter-like movement qualities, and he does a good job getting it in the zone.

Kelly has starter qualities, but his biggest struggle is a lack of deceptive release traits.

Levi Wells, RHP, Orioles
nStuff+ Arsenal Score: 118
Strike Rate: 65.6%
Wells is another name I’ve covered in previous articles. And while his Triple-A debut was concerning, there’s a track record of being able to land his elite stuff in the strike zone. For this reason, I’m buying into Wells as a potential fantasy prospect breakout candidate in 2026.

Wells has one of the highest Stuff+ scores among pitchers in the minors to go with an above-average strike rate. As you move up into the higher Stuff+ score buckets, strikes are at a premium. This makes Wells’ 65.6% strike rate still impressive despite it being one of the lower marks among pitchers included in this list.

Wells’ arsenal is loud, and it’s led by a four-seam fastball that sits 96-98 mph and touches 100 at peak. He mixes four secondaries in a low-80s curveball, mid-80s sweeper, upper-90s cutter and a sinker variation of his fastball. More strikes will be needed for Wells to make the ultimate jump to being a big league starter. He does, however, have better foundational strike-throwing traits than expected.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA's 15 Breakout Hitting Prospects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -baseball/

Kevin Alvarez, OF, Astros
In deeper leagues, Alvarez is likely already snatched up after a strong debut in the Dominican Summer League, where he hit .301/.419/.455 with 23 walks to 19 strikeouts. It’s clear that Alvarez has polished plate skills, and the data backs this up, as he posted a 10.8% zone-whiff rate to go along with a higher swing rate (46.8%) and a reasonable chase rate (26.1%).

When looking at Alvarez, it’s clear that his 6-foot-4 frame has plenty of remaining projection to grow into more power. While his 90th percentile exit velocity is about average for a 17-year-old, his max EV of 110 stands out as a signal of the power to come.

Alvarez falls into the category of a polished hitter who will add power. A standout stateside debut could push him onto the Top 100 by season’s end.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA's Houston Breakout Prospects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -for-2026/

Lucas Spence, OF

BA Grade/Risk: 50/Average
Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: Spence spent two seasons at Black Hawk (Ill.) JC as a two-way player, earning NJCAA all-region honors. He transferred to Southern Illinois-Edwardsville for his junior season and hit .385/.473/.552 over 56 games while making 14 appearances on the mound. Spence went unselected in the 2024 draft but signed with the Astros shortly after. He jumped three levels in his first full season hitting .244/.368/.403 and reaching Double-A by early August.

Scouting Report: Spence is a plus athlete with little remaining projection. He shows average bat-to-ball ability with plus swing decisions, showing the ability to get on-base while limiting swing and miss due to his selectivity. Spence struggles to hit lefthanded pitching and does his damage against righties. Spence shows a tick better than average raw power but it plays more like gap power in games. A flatter swing path leads to lots of line drives and hard, top-spun groundballs. Spence did add more lift as the season progressed, slashing his groundball rate as he climbed to Double-A. With solid exit velocity data there’s a chance that improved angles lead to average power. Spence is a plus runner bordering on plus-plus. He flies out the box and pushes outfielders to hustle on balls to the gaps. Spence’s speed translates to the field where he’s an above-average outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions. He also has a plus arm and uncorks beautiful on-line throws.

The Future: Spence is a future strong-side platoon bat who should move all around the outfield.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From San Francisco's Breakout Prospects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -for-2026/

Luis De La Torre, LHP
BA Grade/Risk: 45/Average
Adjusted Grade: 35

Track Record: De La Torre was born in Phoenix and spent most of his childhood and adolescent years in the United States before moving to the Dominican Republic. The Giants signed him as a 19-year-old in 2023 for $10,000 and then sent him to the Dominican Summer League for his pro debut for the first two seasons of his career. He moved stateside in 2025 and was yet another prospect in the Giants’ impressive cachet of lower-level talent.

Scouting Report: When he tried out for the Giants, De La Torre’s fastball fluctuated around 82-85 mph. The team liked the way he commanded the pitch, however, and signed him with the idea that there was much more in the tank. They were right. Now, his heater sits in the mid 90s and reaches 98. He backs it with a slider in the mid 80s that shows two-plane break and gets whiffs against righties and lefties alike. Those two pitches make up the bulk of his mix, but he’ll also flip in the occasional low-90s changeup or low-80s curveball. Both pitches work as strike-stealers or bridge pitches between the two gems of his arsenal. De La Torre’s frame is strong and his delivery is loose and easy, but his command might only be fringe-average and most of his best stuff plays to his glove side.

The Future: De La Torre’s two excellent pitches give him a floor of a lefty-neutralizing force. If one of his other two pitches takes a step forward, he might fit in the back of the rotation. He’ll likely split his 2026 season between the Class A levels.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 40 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects: https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top100/

6. Nolan McLean, RHP
28. Andrew Painter, RHP
30. Eduardo Quintero, OF
42. Owen Caissie, OF
47. Aiva Arquette, SS
85. Brody Hopkins, RHP
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From CBS Sports Top 100 (RJ Anderson Edition): https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rank ... t-emerson/

8. Nolan McLean, RHP
14. Eduardo Quintero, OF
24. Andrew Painter, RHP
39. Aiva Arquette, SS
68. Owen Caissie, OF
70. Slade Caldwell, OF
74. Brody Hopkins, RHP
82. Jeferson Quero, C
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BP's Top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... e-top-101/

4. Nolan McLean, RHP
27. Eduardo Quintero, OF
50. Aiva Arquette, SS
51. Andrew Painter, RHP
72. Brody Hopkins, RHP
91. Owen Caissie, OF
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... s-in-2026/

Kevin Alvarez, OF, Astros
When it comes to the international market, the Astros have succeeded, but that’s mainly with players who have signed for very little. José Altuve ($15,000), Framber Valdez ($10,000) and Ronel Blanco ($5,000) are examples.

Alvarez, by contrast, surged in the opposite direction, earning $2 million in 2025 and delivering an impressive DSL season in which he slashed .301/.419/.455, added two home runs and 11 stolen bases, showed an advanced approach by drawing more walks than strikeouts and represented the Astros in the DSL All-Star game. Alvarez is an explosive 6-foot-4 athlete with a smooth lefthanded swing, elite contact skill, and emerging power, showing rare polish for his size with 25-homer upside if he adds loft.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BP's The Top 101: The Next Ten: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... -next-ten/

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles

Why He Could Have Made the Top 101: Bradfield was a top-50 prospect coming into the season, and while you do have to ding him some for the missed time, he looked mostly like himself when on the field. He has the kind of speed and defense projection that makes him a reasonably high-floor major leaguer for a long time.

Why He Didn’t: He looked mostly like himself but struggled in Triple-A and Fall Ball and posted under a .700 OPS for the season. Bradfield is going to be 24 and there was a thought at some point he would do more damage and lift the ball more once he got into the Orioles hitting development apparatus. That hasn’t happened and while he can be a good regular with around a .700 OPS, he won’t be a star.

Slade Caldwell, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Why He Could Have Made the Top 101: He performed well across two A-ball levels, he is already around average raw power despite his diminutive size and he does hit the ball in the air a lot. He’s a good runner with a chance to stick in center field. This also vaguely describes Jett Williams and he’s been a Top 101 prospect for a while.

Why He Didn’t: Caldwell swings even less than Williams does. He’s one of the most passive hitters in the minors and has an Evan Carteresque chase rate so you’d think he’d be picking the best pitches possible to hit. Even while doing that, his contact rate is just a smidge above-average and he’s looked more like a slash-and-burn hitter than one with average game power. We will need to see this in the upper minors first.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/nolan-mcl ... ining-work

Mets pitchers and catchers aren’t scheduled for their first workout until Feb. 11, but star rookie Nolan McLean is already down in Port St. Lucie, Fla., and was blowing pitches by hitters during his live batting practice session on Tuesday.

It sure beats shoveling snow.

“It's good to get out here and compete a little bit,” McLean said during an interview on SNY. “Got kind of snowed in in North Carolina for a little while, so getting down south and getting to warm weather, getting off a dirt mound, that’s always great.”

McLean, the No. 6 prospect in MLB and the game’s top pitching prospect, is preparing for his first big league camp after a whirlwind year that saw him make his Major League debut in August and dominate over 48 innings before an offseason in which he got married, moved into a new house and was named to Team USA for the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

“Yeah, it's been incredible,” he said. “I'm just super blessed and happy I get to go out and represent USA.”

Already possessing an outstanding curveball, McLean said he is focused in camp on improving his changeup and cutter, two pitches he used less than 10% of the time last year.

He’s doing that work alongside Freddy Peralta, who also arrived at the Mets’ spring complex a little early. Although McLean is excited to have Peralta on the staff, the trade to acquire him sent right-handed pitcher and good friend Brandon Sproat to Milwaukee. Sproat and McLean developed a bond after they were drafted just 35 picks apart by the Mets in 2023. McLean said he found out about the deal via social media -- “kind of out of nowhere” -- and talked to Sproat shortly afterward.

“I think he’s in a good spot,” McLean said. “I’m just rooting for him. Obviously, that's a good buddy of mine. You’re always just rooting for your friends as well, but we obviously trust our front office and the plans they have for us.”
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -for-2026/

Stharlin Torres, RHP, Reds
I previously wrote about why Torres is underrated in dynasty and will reiterate it now: Few pitchers in the lower minors have a better combination of stuff and strikes than the 19-year-old Reds righthander.

Our Stuff+ metric graded Torres’ arsenal at 110, and he throws strikes at a rate of 71.5%. He has almost no peers in the complex levels or Low-A with comparable strikes and stuff. Torres creates ride in his four-seam fastball with projectable low-to-mid-90s velocity and the makings of a plus changeup.

Torres is still cheap, but a strong full season of starts at a full-season level could see his price climb dramatically.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... y-hopkins/

Righthander Brody Hopkins tends to wow observers first with his athleticism, a product of his status as a two-way player through college. He spent more time in the outfield than on the mound.

Then there’s the competitiveness, a fire and gnawing drive to be the best at anything and everything he does. The 24-year-old proceeds with only one speed: all out.

The third element to his story now seems in place. Hopkins has refined his pitching tools—delivery, repertoire, approach and stuff—to the point at which the only thing he lacks is control.

He walked 12% of batters at Double-A Montgomery last season, though he struck out nearly 29% and pitched to a 2.72 ERA in 116 innings.

Hopkins earned the right to show his stuff, including two fastballs, a variety of breaking pitches and a power changeup—in big league camp for the first time this spring.

“It’s a power arm with a really big fastball,” Rays assistant GM Kevin Ibach said. “He can spin two breaking balls. He’s still working on the changeup right now, something to soften the velo there.

“But he’s just super athletic. I think the athleticism itself is what stands out with Brody, and then the competitiveness.

The Rays acquired Hopkins from the Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline in the deal that sent Randy Arozarena to Seattle. The Mariners drafted him in the 2023 sixth round out of Winthrop.

“He’s going to get after hitters right away, and he’s going to compete out there,” Ibach said. “I know a lot of pitchers take spring training as a build-up, but he’s really only got one level—compete. So it’ll be fun to get him around our major league staff.”

Rays big league field staff will get their first extended look at Hopkins this spring before he reports to Triple-A Durham.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -prospect/

A teenage catcher signed to a modest bonus out of Venezuela is now the top-rated prospect in a talented Dodgers system.

The Dodgers moved Eduardo Quintero to the outfield after signing him for $297,500 in 2023. He has emerged as someone who could find himself patrolling center field at Dodger Stadium some day.

“His ability to look over a ball, the calmness in the box coupled with his ability to drive the ball makes for a very exciting offensive profile,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said.

“And as soon as we moved him to the outfield, he displayed a real nose for the ball and instincts that made it look like he’d been playing there his whole life.”

Quintero shined in the Arizona Complex League in 2024 and took another step forward at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2025. He hit .306/.426/.533 with 14 home runs and 35 stolen bases in 83 games.

Despite being promoted to High-A Great Lakes in late July, Quintero won the California League’s MVP award. All before turning 20.

Quintero will likely make the jump to Double-A at some point this season, the next challenge in the young outfielder’s prospect.

The Dodgers have a number of outfield prospects with bright futures. Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope and Mike Sirota are fellow Top 100 Prospects, but Quintero’s ability to play center field could set him apart.

“We have a number of very talented minor league outfield prospects. Only a few of them profile with the ability to play center field in the major leagues,” Friedman said.

“We feel like what (Quintero) does in the box, on the bases and on defense gives him every chance as a young prospect to feature prominently in the middle of the field for us.”
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From FG's 2026 Top 100: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-100-prospects/

3. Nolan McLean, RHP
27. Andrew Painter, RHP
43. Eduardo Quintero, CF
55. Jefferson Rojas, SS
59. Brody Hopkins, RHP
62. Owen Caissie, RF
76. Jeferson Quero, C
87. Aiva Arquette, SS
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

ZiPS Top 100 Prospects: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2026-t ... prospects/

13. Nolan McLean, RHP
32. Braylon Doughty, RHP
41. Eduardo Quintero, CF
49. Owen Caissie, RF
58. Brice Matthews, 2B
70. Andrew Painter, RHP
77. Antwone Kelly, RHP
82. Termarr Johnson, 2B
89. Jeferson Quero, C
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From MLB: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/andrew-pa ... ague-debut


PHILADELPHIA -- Andrew Painter stepped out of the Phillies’ dugout shortly before 6 p.m. on Tuesday.

He was less than an hour from his highly anticipated MLB debut. The fans that noticed him at Citizens Bank Park applauded as he walked to the bullpen to begin the final preparations for the biggest day of his professional life. He had waited forever for this, but he seemed to be at peace with himself.

“Just trying to soak it all in,” he said.

Painter, 22, dazzled in a 3-2 victory over the Nationals, striking out eight and allowing four hits, one run and one walk in 5 1/3 innings. It was one of the more memorable debuts in Phillies history, considering the pedigree (Painter is the No. 26 prospect in baseball), the hype (there hasn’t been a more highly touted Phillies pitching prospect since Cole Hamels more than 20 years ago) and the performance.

“It looked like he had been there before,” Brandon Marsh said. “It was dope.”

“Before the game, there’s no pacing -- no nothing,” Kyle Schwarber said. “It just felt like he was mentally prepared for what he was about to go do.”

The first pitch of Painter’s MLB career crossed home plate at 6:42 p.m.

It was a 96.6 mph fastball called for a strike.

It was on.

“After that, everything just felt like it was in sync,” Painter said.

Four pitches later, Nats right fielder James Wood swung over the top of a 1-2 curveball for strike three.

Painter showed everybody on Tuesday why so many people have thought so highly of him for so many years. The son of former Phillies manager Joe Girardi played with Painter in high school. Girardi saw Painter throw as a freshman at Calvary Christian Academy in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. He predicted then that Painter would throw 100 mph one day and be a first-round pick. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski often compared Painter, whom the Phillies selected in the first round of the 2021 Draft, with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander and World Series hero Josh Beckett.

Wood couldn’t make any comparisons on Tuesday.

“He’s Andrew Painter,” Wood said. “He’s a good pitcher in his own right."

Painter’s four-seam fastball touched 98.7 mph and averaged 96.7 mph. He showed wipeout secondary pitches, getting three strikeouts on changeups, two on sliders and two on curveballs.

Even when he fell behind in the count, he threw his secondary pitches for strikes.

“Felt like I was in control of the pace of the game,” Painter said.

“Our game plan going in, he just executed it to perfection,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said.

Painter showed poise. He got into a jam in the second inning when the Nationals hit back-to-back singles with no outs. He got out of it.

“I thought maybe he'd have some nerves coming to this game, thought we'd get some better pitches to hit, and he was just living on the edges and just did a good job getting ahead of our hitters,” Nationals manager Blake Butera said. “That was as advertised. He's going to be a really good pitcher in this game for a long time."

Painter retired 13 of 15 batters following the second-inning singles until he allowed a one-out single to CJ Abrams in the fifth.

It was his 84th and final pitch of the night.

Manager Rob Thomson walked to the mound to get the ball.

“Great job,” Realmuto told Painter. “Enjoy this.”

“Did you enjoy it?” Thomson asked Painter.

Painter shook his head no.

“Then he figured out what I said, and he shook his head yes,” Thomson said.

Thomson told Painter to tip his cap to the crowd before he got to the dugout. He did.

“I almost forgot,” Painter said.

It was the only time this week that Painter let things speed up on him.

“I had conversations with Painter yesterday and today that were pretty impressive, just his knowledge of their lineup over there,” Realmuto said. “Guys he hasn’t even faced before, he watched video. He had some ideas of how he wanted to work counts. That’s really impressive of a kid that age. You would’ve never known it was his first start. He seemed super calm. Confident.”

Painter gave the Phillies a boost on Tuesday, as they had lost three of their first four games this season. The pitching hasn’t been great. The hitting has been worse.

But Painter provided a spark, and others followed. Schwarber and Adolis García each homered. The bullpen allowed a run in 3 1/3 innings. Jhoan Duran got the save in the ninth with a big assist from Marsh, who broke back to make a nice running catch to rob Wood of a game-tying hit with two outs.

Painter got the win. He was first in the handshake line.

A few minutes later, he greeted about 40 family and friends on the field.

It meant everything to him.

“Just the support, the support system behind me,” he said. “Just seeing everyone come out, take time out of their week to watch me pitch.”

They wouldn’t have missed it for anything.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ackfields/


Kevin Alvarez, OF, Astros
The Astros have signaled their confidence in Alvarez, who ranked No. 6 among prospects in the Dominican Summer League in 2025. Scouts see a player with a chance to be an above-average hitter with average power. He’s twitchy and athletic and has a chance to stick in center field, but his plus arm strength would be a weapon in right field if he moved over in deference to a more natural defender up the middle. He’s a solid route-runner, too, which should aid his chances of staying in center, where there would be less pressure to produce more impact than scouts currently project.

Jefferson Rojas, SS, Cubs
Rojas has spent time on the Top 100 but did not find a spot on the list to open this season. After a loud spring training, he might not have to wait long to get his spot back. He showed up this spring looking much stronger than his listed weight of 150 pounds, and the extra mass has helped turn his swings into loud noises and long drives. Beyond the added impact, scouts now see a player with the skills to battle at the plate if he gets into pitcher’s counts and do damage on more than mistakes. Even with the added bulk, he still has the range and arm strength to stick at shortstop and mature into a player who can provide value on both sides of the ball.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/brice-mat ... e-coverage

HOUSTON -- While Cam Smith has started in right field in each of the Astros’ first six games of the regular season, manager Joe Espada has been using left-field and center-field platoons to take advantage of pitching matchups and the skill sets of his young outfielders.

Joey Loperfido, a left-handed hitter, has started Houston’s three games against right-handed pitchers -- two in left field and one in center field. Brice Matthews, a right-handed hitter, has started the three games against left-handed starters -- two in left field and one in center field. Jake Meyers started the other four games in center field, and Yordan Alvarez started two games in left field.

The Astros have preached position flexibility for years, and having Matthews and Loperfido gives Espada lots of options. Loperfido can play all three outfield spots and can come off the bench and pinch-hit against a right-hander late in a game. Matthews can move to second base or shortstop late in a game like he did in Spring Training with ease. Both have speed, so they are pinch-run options as well.

“When you’re a young player, especially with a roster like ours, you have to wait for your turn,” Espada said. “These players, they know their role, but it doesn’t mean that’s their role forever. When Kyle Tucker got to the big leagues, he didn’t immediately play every day. He had Josh Reddick [ahead of him] at the time. Some of these guys, that’s how you establish yourself in the big leagues.”

Matthews’ transition to the outfield from the infield -- he was drafted as a shortstop -- has been a work in progress. He was exposed to the outfield last season in Triple-A as the Astros tried to find ways to get him reps on the Major League roster, considering their infield is stacked with veterans.

Matthews, the Astros’ No. 4 prospect, parlayed a strong performance in the Grapefruit League into a spot on the Opening Day roster. He edged out No. 11 prospect Zach Cole, an outfielder, for the final spot on the roster, but Cole broke a toe on his right foot when he was hit by a pitch Sunday in Triple-A. Espada said it will “take a little bit for him to get back.”

Cole is headed to the Astros’ facility in West Palm Beach, Fla., to rehab, so Matthews’ spot on the roster is secure for now.

“I talked to him [Monday] and told him I was praying for him,” Matthews said. “Hopefully, it’s a speedy recovery. He’s going to help us in the long run. He’s a really good player and it just sucks to have him injured. For me, it’s keep having good at-bats and finishing them off the right way and keep making more contact like I was in Spring Training. I just have to slow everything down and keep playing baseball.”

Matthews belted a fifth-inning homer in Monday’s 8-1 win over the Red Sox that traveled a Statcast-projected 434 feet at 111.1 mph off the bat. It was the longest of his young career and longest by an Astros player so far this year. The ball landed on the home run porch above left field -- an area typically reserved for power hitters, not a 5-foot-10, 190-pound middle infielder by trade.

“I know he’s strong, but that’s strong,” Espada said. “When he hit it, honestly, I thought, ‘This ball isn’t going to get caught,’ but when it kept going, I was like, ‘Oh man, that’s some big-time juice.’”

Matthews has been working on trying to create more consistent contact and said Tuesday he still has some adjustments to make at the plate. In addition to his homer Monday, he also made a strong throw from left field and nearly threw out a runner at second base, but Jose Altuve’s tag of Trevor Story was ruled late following a replay review.

Matthews, who grew up in the Houston area, has blended in well with the Astros’ veteran clubhouse and is making the most of his early playing time.

“It’s been a lot of fun being around a great group of guys, great leaders, great people,” he said. “It's the same old baseball. I’m trying to slow the nerves down and everything. We’ve been playing great team baseball and passing the bat. I had a great day [Monday] and want to just try to build on it and keep rolling.”
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/help-us-and ... salvation/

Andrew Painter made his major league debut on Tuesday, as the Phillies were coming off a three-game losing streak. That’s a tough assignment; I know it’s the first week of the season, but that has never stopped Phillies fans — who even in the best of times are always looking for a reason to jump off a bridge — from declaring the team irretrievably cooked.

Not so fast, my friends. Because anyone who’s willing to overreact to a one-game sample in April must be over the moon about Painter.

Painter, who turns 23 next month, was one of the top pitching prospects in the entire sport in the 2022-23 offseason. At age 19, he was promoted to Double-A, where he posted a 2.54 ERA in five starts and struck out 37, while walking just two, in 28 1/3 innings. As 2023 dawned, there was a not-unreasonable expectation that Painter would contribute down the stretch in his age-20 season, perhaps as a bullpen stopper, like a young David Price or Adam Wainwright, or perhaps in the rotation. (Remember, this was before Cristopher Sánchez turned into the world-destroying ace he’s become.)

But Painter’s elbow started barking, and an early hesitation to sending him to get Tommy John surgery led to both 2023 and 2024 being written off. With two years of rust, Painter struggled in 2025, pitching to an ERA over 5.00 across two minor league levels, and the first single-digit K/9 ratio of his professional career. The Phillies pitched well last postseason, but they still could’ve used Painter. He simply hadn’t earned the call-up that he’d seemingly had in the bag since early 2023.

He dropped his arm slot and lost a ton of life off his fastball while returning from Tommy John, but the promise remained. He was no longer the top pitching prospect in baseball, nor the top prospect in the Phillies’ system, but he rated no. 27 overall this past offseason and eighth among pitching prospects, with a 55-FV grade. This is still Philadelphia’s most anticipated rookie pitcher since at least Cole Hamels.

It speaks to the Phillies’ faith in the young right-hander that they did not go out and get anything resembling a like-for-like replacement for the departing Ranger Suarez. With Zack Wheeler on the mend from thoracic outlet syndrome, that left Painter in the big league rotation with no safety net. I genuinely do not know who starting pitcher no. 6 is for the Phillies right now, but I am confronted with the possibility that it might be Bryse Wilson if 40-man roster glut were not a consideration.

So, yeah, there’s a bit of pressure on Painter.

If he was feeling that pressure, you couldn’t tell. Painter, who stands an Ent-like 6-foot-7, strolled serenely to the mound for his first competitive big league action. And as good as the stuff and the results were — don’t worry, I’m getting there — Painter’s composure seemed to impress his teammates most.

Remember, the Phillies are, generally speaking, old as hell. They’ve been around the block. Matt Gelb of The Athletic noted before the game that Tuesday’s was the first Phillies lineup in five and a half years to feature two players aged 22 or younger. Gelb quoted Jesús Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto praising Painter’s composure in his gamer. Kyle Schwarber and Adolis García echoed those sentiments in their postgame remarks.

But it doesn’t matter how calm a rookie pitcher is if he’s throwing slop and getting shelled. So let’s check Painter’s stuff and results.

Yes, the Nationals’ lineup isn’t that good overall, but it features a few challenging hitters: CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, and the genuinely capital-D Dangerous James Wood. Joey Wiemer is coming off a run of literally not making an out for 10 straight plate appearances, though it looks like the magic (or quantum ray power) has finally worn off.

The value proposition for Painter is that there’s nothing weird about him. He’s just what an ace looks like. He’s huge, he throws hard, he has a varied arsenal of six pitches… there’s just nothing to talk yourself into on the scouting report.

Painter throws two fastballs, a four-seamer and sinker, both of which sat 94-97 and topped out at 98.7 mph. He hit that figure twice in the first inning, when he was freshest and the adrenaline was surely pumping hardest, but he got back to 98.6 mph in the fourth.

Like a lot of modern starters, Painter has one look for left-handed hitters and another for righties. The platoon advantage works because breaking balls move away from same-handed batters and toward opposite-handed hitters. So pitchers like Painter, who have multiple fastballs and breaking balls, want to work side-to-side against same-handed batters and up-and-down against opposite-handed ones. That means four-seamer, sinker, slider, sweeper against righties, and four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup against lefties in Painter’s case.

Nationals manager Blake Butera loaded up on the former. With six lefties and two switch-hitters in the lineup, Wiemer was the only right-handed batter Painter faced all evening, so we saw a lot of his four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup, and relatively little of his sinker and sweeper.

Painter was kind enough to get at least one strikeout on each pitch from that first group of four, so that you can see all of them in this highlight video.

Painter’s first and last strikeouts came against Wood, and both came from working fastball up, curveball down, to change Wood’s eye level and mess up his timing. He struck out in the fifth inning after taking an 80.6-mph curveball for a strike, and then chasing a 97.2-mph four-seamer up and away.

With the fastball and curveball established, Painter could tunnel his changeup into a middle ground in terms of movement and speed. The scouting report on Painter has “FASTBALL VELOCITY” and “NASTY CURVEBALL” written in all caps, but the changeup is a new weapon, perhaps the only positive development from his forgettable 2025 season in Lehigh Valley.

He was able to paint the bottom left-hand corner of the strike zone with his changeup to get Luis García Jr. looking in the third, and he did it again to Jorbit Vivas in the fourth. Both of those pitches were right on the edge of the zone, but Painter worked there so effectively that the Nats were out of challenges when Vivas tried to summon ABS to bail him out.

And when Painter did allow contact, it was pretty innocuous. He let up 12 balls in play out of 21 batters faced. Only three of those batted balls had an xBA of .100 or higher, and only one reached Baseball Savant’s hard-hit threshold of 95 mph. That was the last pitch Painter threw all night: Abrams ripped it to right for a single, and Phillies manager Rob Thomson, wanting his rookie starter to go out on a positive, pulled the plug.

The damage the Nats did against Painter, such as it was, didn’t do much to discredit the rookie’s effort. Lile seemed to have Painter’s number, reaching twice, but one of those two came on a popup that four different Phillies lost in the lights. As a general rule, when someone tags Jon Bois on social media with “watching baseball,” it doesn’t speak well of what’s depicted.

The state of perpetual garment-rending around the Phillies might be unhelpful, as I mentioned up top, but as debuts go, at home in April against the Nats is a pretty soft assignment for a rookie. Painter aced it, so to speak, but that success only earns him a new set of questions to answer. Can he get it done against deeper lineups? Can he survive a third time through the order? Can he hold his velocity? If so, how far up the rotation can he climb — a question that could become quite relevant given the questions about Wheeler’s health and Aaron Nola’s getting abducted by aliens last year.

But that’s life in the big leagues. The hits just keep on coming. Or, in Painter’s case, maybe they won’t.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ts-update/

Jefferson Rojas, SS, Cubs
Previous: Unranked
Now: No. 94
Rojas has earned spots in previous iterations of the Top 100 only to fall off again. He’s back now thanks to a more physical frame that could add some power to his profile. He showed up to camp with easily apparent strength that has resulted in a bushel of barrels on the backfields. If he can marry that added thump with enough athleticism to stick up the middle, he’ll be an asset on both sides of the ball.


April Update:
18. Eduardo Quintero, OF
30. Andrew Painter, RHP
35. Brody Hopkins, RHP
41. Owen Caissie, OF
44. Aiva Arquette, SS
79. Braylon Doughty, RHP
94. Jefferson Rojas, SS
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/potential ... e-coverage

Rays: Brody Hopkins, RHP (No. 2/MLB No. 80)
Tampa Bay’s rotation is off to a fine start in the Majors, but starting depth is always called upon eventually in the bigs. No arm in the system has a higher ceiling than Hopkins does, and the 24-year-old righty has already touched triple-digits and generated a 36.2 percent whiff rate on his four-seam fastball. He’s moved toward a cutter and curveball as his top two secondaries to keep himself more over the plate, and control will still be a focus in his push toward the Trop.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -prospect/

Coming in blind on a player is one of the trickiest things to do at Baseball America. All season long, BA staffers see games—both on TV and in person—which gives us as national a perspective as possible on prospects. We also talk to scouts, coaches and analysts, and work through video clips on Synergy Sports.

But we can’t see everyone. On the rare occasion that one of us comes in blind on a player, it gives us a chance to view him with a clean slate, fresh eyes and an open perspective.

I found myself in that position with Rays righthander Brody Hopkins on April 3, when he made his second turn of the season for Triple-A Durham.

Of course, Hopkins wasn’t totally anonymous. In 2024, he was among the 70 players who impressed scouts during minor league spring training. Later that year, he was part of the return the Rays received from Seattle in the Randy Arozarena deal.

He broke out in a big way in 2025, when he struck out 141 hitters in 116 innings at Double-A Montgomery and made an appearance in the Futures Game. That season helped him shoot up our Top 100 list, and he currently checks in at No. 34 overall, a ranking that also places him as the No. 10 pitching prospect in the sport.

The outing I saw was uneven, and ended with three hits, four walks and five strikeouts over five shutout frames against a lineup with plenty of players with big league experience (to say nothing of rehabbing righthander Zack Wheeler on the mound). Hopkins faced the quality of hitters who can very easily show a pitcher where he needs to improve before he’s ready for the big leagues.

Here are my thoughts on what I saw:

Body
Hopkins looks every bit of his listed 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, an ideal frame for a power pitcher with designs on a long career in a big league rotation. He is well-proportioned and strong throughout, and should be able to maintain his best stuff deeper into outings as the spring turns into summer and conditions throughout the country become more taxing. The athleticism that helped Hopkins star in football as a wide receiver and as a two-way player at Winthrop are apparent, both in the looseness of Hopkins’ actions and the quickness of his feet on pickoff attempts.

Delivery
Hopkins works on the first-base side of the rubber from the set only and lifts his front leg deep into his chest, delivers with plenty of arm speed and does a reasonably good job keeping his body stable on the mound throughout his finish. The biggest issues here are a longer arm action that leads to trouble repeating his arm slot and, in turn, control and command that can lead to inefficient outings and might keep him from reaching his lofty ceiling. Throughout this start, Hopkins’ stuff and command appeared crisper when his slot was closer to three-quarters. He also finishes with his back knee nearly touching the dirt on the mound, helping him generate a lower release height.


Stuff
Hopkins’ approach features very little finesse. That was especially true in this outing, when a vast majority of his pitches were either four-seamers or cutters. The former averaged roughly 98 mph and touched 100 mph twice, while the latter sat at 92 mph and touched 95. Hopkins’ four-seamer drew five whiffs in nine swings, but he threw it for a strike slightly less than half the time. It showed plenty of life throughout the zone, and was the finisher for four of his five strikeouts. The righthander did well to lengthen and shorten the break on the cutter, which allowed the pitch to miss barrels, get him back into counts when he’d fallen behind and draw the occasional whiff as well.

Hopkins’ sketchy control in this outing didn’t allow him to get to his signature breaking pitches very often. When he did, he didn’t appear to have much of a feel for either his sweeper or curveball. He mixed in the sweeper more often than he had in his previous start, against Charlotte, when he threw the pitch just twice. The delivery inconsistencies likely led to the pitches blending together and becoming less effective.

Hopkins rounded out his arsenal with a very sparsely used changeup, which was thrown in the low 90s, showed very little life and was useful only as a show-me offering.

Conclusion
Even in a middling outing, Hopkins showed the physicality and stuff to fit as a powerful starting pitcher. To reach his ceiling, which should be toward the middle of a rotation, he’ll need to iron out his delivery inconsistencies and produce the best versions of his stuff more often. If those efforts fail, he has a fallback as a leverage reliever.
User avatar
Braves
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am
Location: Raynham, MA
Name: Brett Degen

Re: Down on the Farm - 2026

Post by Braves »

From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -caldwell/

Outfielder Slade Caldwell was conspicuously absent from the Diamondbacks’ Spring Breakout lineup. It turned out he had a good reason.

Caldwell had a slow buildup during spring training due to a herniated disc in his back, an injury he had been dealing with—quietly— since last season.

Though Caldwell said the injury was a nonfactor in terms of his performance, it seems possible that it could explain at least some of the ups and downs from his first full season as a professional.

There were plenty of those. Caldwell, drafted 29th overall out of high school in 2024, started his first full season scorching hot at Low-A Visalia to earn a quick promotion to High-A Hillsboro.

But, relatively speaking, he struggled there, hitting just .238/.370/.311 in 66 games.

“I could play at 100% full speed,” Caldwell said when asked how the back injury affected him. “It was probably just the bus trips. I mean, game time, it was OK. Game time, I was ready to go.

“The adrenaline took over and I was completely fine. It was mostly postgame and getting back on the bus was really the worst part.”

When he was promoted to Hillsboro in June, Caldwell became the youngest player in the Northwest League. It was an aggressive move by Arizona, but one farm director Chris Slivka said he would do again—and one he thinks will benefit Caldwell this year.

Slivka thinks the promotion forced Caldwell to tweak his approach.

“I think his plate discipline is such a strength and he has such tremendous hand speed that against lower-level pitching, just like against high school, amateur-level pitching, he can wait to see the ball and then make a decision to swing,” Slivka said. “He has to start to fine-tune that in his approach in pro ball.

“He almost has to add a little bit more aggression to his approach rather than being passive, especially in hitter’s counts. Him getting on base at the clip that he does is something we value a lot.

“At the same time, we know he has power. We know he has juice. We want to see that. Picking and choosing spots to take a shot, looking for that pitch in that zone, I think that will take him a long way.”

Caldwell opened the season back in Hillsboro.

“It seems like he’ll be good for the season,” Slivka said.
Post Reply

Return to “The Brave Blue Ballers”