Prospect Notes

Ken Breese's blog

Moderator: Reds

Post Reply
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Ralphy Velazquez

Post by Reds »

Time to start updating this area. This from BA

3. Ralphy Velazquez
1B

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R
Age: 20
BA Grade/Risk: 55/Average

Adjusted Grade: 45

Track Record: Coming out of high school in Southern California, Velazquez was a bat-first catcher with a strong hitting track record. After signing with the Guardians for $2.5 million as the 23rd overall pick in 2023, he quickly moved to first base. His 2024 season was solid but not loud, and in 2025 he progressed to the upper minors while hitting .265/.342/.497 between High-A and Double-A. Velazquez was one of eight minor league hitters with 20 or more homers at age 20 or younger.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, Velazquez is one of the most physical players in Cleveland’s system, though he has done a nice job taking advantage of the Guardians’ strength and conditioning resources to tighten his body composition. He has a powerful lefthanded swing that comes from a wide and crouched setup in the box. He has tremendous raw power that has led to exit velocities upward of 114 mph. While Velazquez is an aggressive hitter in terms of the frequency of his swings, he pairs that with a solid understanding of the strike zone and bat-to-ball skills that have always led to sustainable strikeout numbers. Velazquez has improved his batted-ball angles, which has helped him tap into his raw power more frequently and could also allow him to run higher BABIP numbers than anticipated given his well below-average speed. Velazquez continues to get some opportunities in left field, but he’s best positioned at—and overwhelmingly plays—first base, where he could become a solid defender with a plus arm. His mobility would make him a below-average defender in an outfield corner.

The Future: Velazquez’s pure offensive upside stacks up with Chase DeLauter in Cleveland’s system. He could become a plus hit, plus power everyday first baseman and middle-of-the-order masher. He should get a full season in the upper minors in 2026.

Scouting Grades Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Field: 45 | Arm: 60
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Arjun Nimmala

Post by Reds »

Also from BA

2. Arjun Nimmala
SS

Ht: 6'1" | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R
Age: 20
BA Grade/Risk: 60/High

Adjusted Grade: 45

Track Record: At 17 years old, Nimmala was the youngest player selected in the 2023 draft and debuted in the Florida Complex League months before his 18th birthday. His production was heavily disjointed in his first two full seasons. A rough start in 2024 for Low-A Dunedin led to a stint on the development list after 29 games. Upon his return, Nimmala showed improved posture in his swing and hit .265/.331/.564 over the final 53 games. The 2025 season was the reverse, as Nimmala started hot with High-A Vancouver, hitting .289/.372/.538 over the first 45 games. From June 1 onward, things took a gnarly turn and he hit .184 over the final 75 games.

Scouting Report: A young shortstop with exciting skills on both sides of the ball, Nimmala still has remaining projection in his broad-shouldered frame. At the plate, he sets up slightly open, deploying a toe-tap timing mechanism. He looks to meet the ball out in front, which at times is to the detriment of his contact quality when he catches the ball off the end of the bat. Nimmala showed improvements to his contact in 2025 which resulted in a drop in strikeout rate. His bat-to-ball skills are fringe, which he couples with above-average swing decisions. Nimmala produced improved underlying power in 2025 with a jump in exit velocity data. He struggled to pull the ball in the air, however. Due to his plus bat speed, current power and remaining projection, Nimmala should be an above-average power hitter. He is an above-average runner who will show plus run times on jailbreaks to first base. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with a plus arm who looks likely to stick at the position.

The Future: Nimmala will look to find more consistency at the plate in 2026, and if he does he’ll develop into an above-average everyday shortstop. Double-A is next.

Scouting Grades Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60.
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Jackson Ferris

Post by Reds »

From BA

5. Jackson Ferris
LHP

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-L
Age: 21
BA Grade/Risk: 55/High

Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: Ferris split his high school career between North Carolina and IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., from which he was drafted by the Cubs in the second round in 2022. He dazzled in his first full season as a pro, leading to his inclusion—with fellow prospect Zyhir Hope—in the deal in which the Dodgers traded Michael Busch to the Cubs. Ferris spent all of 2025 at Double-A Tulsa, where he produced mixed results. His stuff was among the best in the system, but his consistency, control and command often lacked and led to more walks than were ideal. He ranked third in the Texas League with 135 strikeouts.

Scouting Report: Scouts universally praise Ferris’ pitch mix, which is led by two- and four-seam fastballs and a cutter, as well as a slider, a curveball and a changeup. The two-seamer was new in 2025, and Ferris moved to the popular kick-changeup grip to help the pitch gain more depth. His fastball and curveball each grade as potentially plus pitches, and the latter ranks as the best of its type in the system. He backs his signature offerings with a slider and cutter that range from average to slightly above-average, as well as a changeup that lags behind the rest of his mix. To get the most out of his stuff, he’ll have to improve the quality and quantity of his strikes. Scouts noticed that Ferris got fatigued early and his stuff waned later in games, so he’ll need to add strength to his frame. His longer arm stroke, which includes a hook and a wrap, limits his repeatability and sometimes leads to scattershot outings.

The Future: If Ferris can improve his stamina and strike-throwing, he has the type of stuff that profiles in the middle of big league rotations. If not, he could make for a useful late-game reliever. The 2026 season will provide further clues as to which path he’ll take.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Cutter: 40 | Control: 40
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Jared Thomas

Post by Reds »

From BA

3. Jared Thomas
OF

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-L
Age: 22
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High

Adjusted Grade: 35

Track Record: Thomas emerged in his draft year at Texas, hitting .349/.434/.635 with 16 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 60 games as an eligible sophomore. The Rockies drafted him in the second round in 2024 and signed him for $2 million. Thomas shined at High-A Spokane in the first half of 2025, posting a .922 OPS in 73 games, before scuffling in 45 games for Double-A Hartford as his strikeout rate spiked to nearly 35%. He led the Rockies’ system in both walks (70) and strikeouts (145).

Scouting Report: The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Thomas is an average athlete who moves well for his size. He began his pro career playing primarily center field, but when he moved to Hartford, he slid to left field, which is a better long-term fit. Thomas’ move to Double-A also exposed the key area of concern: swing-and-miss issues, particularly against better sequencing and breaking stuff. Still, when he makes contact, it is often loud contact—supported by consistently high exit velocities and quality barrel rates. While Thomas’ approach leans toward aggression, he generally recognizes pitches well enough to do damage in the zone. His power surge at Texas carried over to Spokane, suggesting that he might one day produce at least average power. Encouragingly, his groundball rate remains low, indicating a swing geared for lift and power. Originally a first baseman in college, Thomas is now a full-time outfielder. He lacks the speed for center but is serviceable on the corners with above-average speed and an average arm.

The Future: Given the learning curve Thomas experienced at Double-A, he should start in Hartford again. Since he is largely limited to the outfield corners and first base, developing his power will be crucial to determining whether he can be an everyday regular or a useful lefthanded-hitting role player with average or better tools across the board.

Scouting Grades Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Ben Hess

Post by Reds »

From BA

5. Ben Hess
RHP

Ht: 6'5" | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R
Age: 23
BA Grade/Risk: 50/Average

Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: Hess was drafted in the first round in 2024 out of Alabama, where he spent that vast majority of his time as a member of the Crimson Tide’s rotation. The Yankees were enthused enough by Hess’ combination of stuff and reliability that they spent $2,747,500 to add him to their system. He didn’t pitch after being drafted and then split his 2025 pro debut between High-A and Double-A. He was mostly healthy but missed about a month in May and June with a non-arm injury. He finished the year with 139 strikeouts in 103.1 innings.

Scouting Report: Hess’ frame and arsenal give him the look of a classic workhorse who eats innings at the back of a rotation. His fastball sits around 93 mph and peaked at 97 and averaged 18.6 inches of induced vertical break, which helped it play as a potentially above-average pitch. His offspeed mix includes both gyro and sweeper sliders as well as a curveball and a changeup. Hess added the sweeper after he returned from injury as a way to give him breaking pitches that played both vertically and horizontally. Hess also worked with the Yankees to change the grip on his changeup to give it a deeper bottom. In concert, his slider is a potentially plus offering, but the rest of his mix mostly hovers between fringy and average. Hess’ repertoire gives him avenues to attack lefties and righties in all quadrants of the strike zone. His goal in 2026 will be to continue to develop his sinker and turn his changeup into a pitch that can be effective against both lefties and righties.

The Future: After a successful first year in pro ball, Hess should split his 2026 sophomore season between the upper levels. With a little more refinement of his offspeed pitches, he could be the same kind of steady rotation presence as he was for three seasons in Tuscaloosa.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Sweeper: 40 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Luke Dickerson

Post by Reds »

From BA

7. Luke Dickerson
SS

Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 197 | B-T: R-R
Age: 20
BA Grade/Risk: 55/High

Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: The Nationals bet big on Dickerson in the second round of the 2024 draft, taking the New Jersey prep two-sport athlete—he also starred in hockey—in the second round and going way over slot to sign him for $3.8 million. That was nearly double the slot value for the 44th pick. Dickerson debuted in the Florida Complex League in 2025 but stayed just six games before the Nationals promoted him to Low-A Fredericksburg. He hit well for the first 20 games but his production tapered off and he finished his time in the Carolina League with a .204 average, 25% strikeout rate and five home runs in 83 games.

Scouting Report: The Nationals got an incomplete look at Dickerson in his first full season because he played through a wrist injury. Despite that mitigating factor, he grinded through a full season and showed plus bat speed and aptitude to drive the ball for power to his pull side on occasion. Like many young hitters, Dickerson will need to hone in on his strike zone and make more contact in the zone and avoid chasing out of it. He can get too passive at times. He hits the ball hard enough consistently enough to provide at least average power, while his quality swing decisions should make him an above-average hitter. Dickerson is a solidly-built, 5-foot-11 athlete who moves well on the infield and can convert routine plays at shortstop. He is a plus runner but doesn’t have classic shortstop range, and his arm is borderline for the left side of the infield. Dickerson saw time at second base late in the season, and some scouts have floated center field as a possible destination.

The Future: Scouts who like Dickerson view him as a potential big league second baseman with solid all-around tools with enough hitting ability and power to play regularly.

Scouting Grades Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

J.D. Dix

Post by Reds »

From BA

8. JD Dix
2B

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 170 | B-T: S-R
Age: 20
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High

Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: A well-regarded high school player in Whitefish Bay, Wis., Dix saw his draft stock slip in 2024 due to a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery for a torn labrum. The Diamondbacks, who liked him before the injury, drafted him anyway with the 35th overall pick with the hope that he fully recovers from the procedure. So far, that hasn’t happened, but with his first full pro season under his belt, Dix looks intriguing anyway as an athletic, hitterish and hard-nosed player. He began 2025 in the Arizona Complex League before moving up to Low-A Visalia at the end of June.

Scouting Report: The switch-hitting Dix has pure, natural swings from both sides of the plate. He offsets long levers with good bat speed and solid bat-to-ball ability. His production in 2025 was just fair, but he has a strong hit tool foundation with few red flags. He sees and handles fastballs and offspeeds well, isn’t too passive or aggressive, uses the whole field and doesn’t hit too many balls on the ground. Those are the sort of attributes that, assuming Dix adds strength to his athletic-looking frame, suggest at least an above-average hitter with average power, if not more. His arm remains a concern. Some think it is fringy but playable at second base, others say it will force a position change, either to first base or the outfield. Dix is a good runner who stole 28 bases in 89 games in 2025. A confident and instinctual player, he is a gamer who makes winning plays.

The Future: Dix is an athletic, projectable player with a wide range of possible outcomes. If his arm improves, perhaps he becomes an offensive-minded second baseman. If not, his bat could still play at either first base, left field or even in center field, where some think his speed could give him plus range.

Scouting Grades Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 40
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Adam Serinowski

Post by Reds »

From Baseball Prospectus

8 - Adam Serinowski, LHP DOB 4/6/2007

The Report: The Dodgers inserting themselves into the Zach Littell deal to grab Serwinowski makes a lot of sense. He’s a funky lefty with a short arm action, a plus fastball/slider combination, and not much of a track record of throwing strikes. The Dodgers have a pretty high tolerance for this kind of profile, and tend to get a lot out of them. But shortly after entering LA’s system, he started throwing more strikes. (Maybe teams should be more willing to let Andrew Friedman’s calls go to voicemail). Serwinowski uses an uptempo delivery with a high hand break and short arm stroke that makes it tough to pick up the ball. His fastball can hit the mid-90s and comes with good carry, if significantly less good command. The low-80s slider falls off a shelf from his over-the-top arm slot and he can run it more left-on-left. There’s a change and a bridge cutter as well. We may have caught Serwinowski in the midst of a breakout with his new org. This may be the best two months of control he ever shows in the pros. I’d bet more on the former, and if you were to place him on a Ronan Kopp to Anthony Banda to Justin Wrobleski to Andrew Heaney continuum, he’s certainly trending towards the high end.

OFP: 55 / no. 3/4 starter or good multi-inning reliever
Variance: High. He might just be exactly Anthony Banda. Or exactly Justin Wrobleski. You’d take those outcomes, but they aren’t really above-average ones.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Rundown:

Top-500 Dynasty Prospects: 367
Potential Earnings: $0-5
Fantasy Overview: Serwinowski is effectively a two-pitch arm with a mid-90s fastball with above-average carry and a low-80s sweeper. Both pitches show promise and flash plus traits. Improving his spotty command and developing repertoire depth will be vital to profile as a starter.
Reckless Fantasy Comp: It works for Robbie Ray.
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Ryan Johnson

Post by Reds »

2. Ryan Johnson
RHP

Ht: 6'6" | Wt: 212 | B-T: S-R
Age: 23
BA Grade/Risk: 50/Mild

Adjusted Grade: 45

Track Record: As a Dallas Baptist junior, Johnson set the school’s single-season (151) and career (341) strikeout records. The Angels drafted him in 2024, using the compensatory second-round pick gained from Shohei Ohtani’s free agent departure. Johnson broke camp with the Angels in 2025 to become the 24th player in history to make the jump from the draft to MLB without spending a day in the minor leagues. His big league stint ended after 14 relief appearances. He landed at High-A Tri-City, where he was stellar before arm fatigue ended his season in August.

Scouting Report: Johnson is a 6-foot-6 righthander with a swing-and-miss arsenal and unorthodox mechanics. He starts his delivery with a truncated overhead windup with a sidestep before going into a short, slinging arm action from a low three-quarters slot, finishing with violence. The high effort has not diminished his control and creates deception for his five-pitch arsenal. Johnson works primarily off his plus, low-90s sweeper/cutter. He can manipulate the shape and velocity of the pitch and locate it for strikes in any count. His fastball peaks at 99 mph and sits 93-94 as a starter—and a tick higher in relief—with plus armside run. It tunnels with his slider to give him an east-west profile. Johnson will incorporate an upper-70s curveball and mid-80s split changeup to lefthanders, but both are fringe-average at best. His starter chances hinge on whether he can repeat his herky-jerky mechanics over extended outings.

The Future: Johnson will continue developing as a starter, with a late-inning relief role serving as a fallback option. Future role questions introduce variance, but there is little doubt that he can become an impact arm in some capacity.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Slider: 60 | Cutter: 60 | Control: 50
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Henry Bolte

Post by Reds »

From BA

6. Henry Bolte
OF

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 195 | B-T: R-R
Age: 22
BA Grade/Risk: 55/High

Adjusted Grade: 40

Track Record: Bolte has steadily climbed the rungs of the Athletics’ minor league system since signing out of a Bay Area high school for $2 million as a second-rounder in 2022. Along the way, he made a series of mechanical tweaks in search of more contact. He split his age-21 season in 2025 between Double-A and Triple-A, batting .284/.385/.427 with nine home runs and 44 stolen bases over 114 games before a nagging wrist injury ended his year and required September surgery.

Scouting Report: Bolte is a player of extremes. He produces some of the best exit velocities of any A’s minor leaguer, runs the bases as well as any player in the system and is a potential plus outfield defender. Bolte has been quite productive in the minors and, on the right weeks, scouts see massive upside. In other weeks, they wonder if he’ll ever hit enough to piece it all together in the majors. The righthanded-hitting Bolte has smoothed out his swing and improved pitch recognition to trim his strikeout rates, yet still ran a 33% whiff rate in 2025 with holes up in the zone against velocity and down and away versus breaking balls. He also pounds too many balls into the ground, and his 59% groundball rate limits his in-game impact, though the A’s believe his lingering wrist woes contributed to that result. Bolte oozes athleticism on the bases and at all three outfield spots, and his frenetic play style can also lead to some erraticism.

The Future: There’s boom-or-bust risk with Bolte, whose power-speed profile is not far off from current A’s outfielder Colby Thomas. The organization remains encouraged by Bolte’s intangibles and year-over-year progress, and he has the upside of an everyday outfielder who hits .240 with 25-30 homers and steals bases—if he can find a way to optimize his swing and approach to make better contact.

Scouting Grades Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Field: 60 | Arm: 60
User avatar
Reds
Posts: 3870
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:00 am

Ralphy Velazquez

Post by Reds »

This from FanGraphs

2. Ralphy Velazquez, 1B

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (CLE)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/60 40/55 30/30 45/50 55

Velazquez was an underslot first-round pick in 2023. Selected as a bat-first catcher, the stick has always looked promising, but questions about his body and future position made him a risky proposition. Even though he’s shed the catcher’s gear, it appears Cleveland chose wisely. Velazquez has gotten himself in great shape and is on the fast track to the big leagues. He reached Double-A just a couple months after turning 20, and spent the season’s final month hammering the competition, hitting .330/.405/.589 with 12 walks and only 19 punchouts in 126 plate appearances at Akron.

Velazquez projects as a middle-of-the-order hitter. Everything looks right in the box. He starts with a wide base, his short stride and kick get him in position on time, his trigger looks natural, and he has a fast bat that’s already producing above-average exit velocities. He’s also showing signs of a mature approach, hunting low-and-in pitches early in counts and adjusting with two strikes.

As a professional, Velazquez has mostly played first base, where he projects average, though Cleveland has occasionally deployed him in an outfield corner. He has the motor to make himself playable — Velazquez was a regular and sometimes solo presence at pre-game defensive work in Brendan’s looks — but he’ll need to take to the finer points of the job because his speed will be tested out there. It’s worth a try, even if first base seems like the likely end point. Regardless, Velazquez is a hitter first. His ascension to Double-A capped off a really promising 2025 season, and he enters 2026 as an arrow-up guy with a chance to reach Cleveland as soon as this summer.
Post Reply

Return to “Redleg Outpost”