From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... f-8-1-8-3/
Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays (Double-A Montgomery): 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 10 K, 2 BB.
Despite falling just outside our midseason top 50(-60), our preseason no. 57 prospect has been effective in Double-A. Hopkins has still been highly inefficient, shortening some of his outing significantly, but this is his second seven-inning showcase on the season.
And From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... et-8-4-25/
9. Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays
Team: Double-A Montgomery (Southern)
Age: 23
Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR
The Scoop: The Rays’ No. 5 prospect has been excellent this season with Double-A Montgomery and might have pitched his best game of the season on Friday. Hopkins spun seven scoreless innings, striking out 10 while allowing three hits and two walks. Over the course of the outing, Hopkins generated 17 swinging strikes as his mid-90s fastball and trio of secondaries ate all night long. Hopkins is a prospect with a green up arrow as we head into the closing weeks of the 2025 season. There’s an outside chance he debuts with the Rays in the first half of 2026.
Down on the Farm - 2025
Moderator: Braves
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA's Statcast Standouts: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... uts-aug-4/
Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs
It’s important to see growth from young players. Let’s take a look at how Caissie has progressed from last season:
So far this season:
The top-line improvement is the most obvious. Caissie is now showing at least plus-plus power, increasing his 90th percentile exit velocity from a 65 to a 70 grade, while improving his launch angles and increasing his average exit velocities substantially, especially on fly balls.
There’s another key improvement that Caissie has made: He’s chasing breaking balls and off-speed pitches a lot less, with perhaps some regression against sliders. He’s both increased his in-zone aggression from 70.2% to 71.3% and reduced his chase from 30.9% to 28.3%, which is a massive overall improvement.
He’s not quite as dynamic against lefties, but he can more than hold his own, with a very patient, contact-oriented approach. This suggests he’s not a huge risk of being a platoon-only bat. The Cubs notably did not trade Caissie at the deadline, as he’s likely their insurance policy if Kyle Tucker leaves in free agency.
Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs
It’s important to see growth from young players. Let’s take a look at how Caissie has progressed from last season:
So far this season:
The top-line improvement is the most obvious. Caissie is now showing at least plus-plus power, increasing his 90th percentile exit velocity from a 65 to a 70 grade, while improving his launch angles and increasing his average exit velocities substantially, especially on fly balls.
There’s another key improvement that Caissie has made: He’s chasing breaking balls and off-speed pitches a lot less, with perhaps some regression against sliders. He’s both increased his in-zone aggression from 70.2% to 71.3% and reduced his chase from 30.9% to 28.3%, which is a massive overall improvement.
He’s not quite as dynamic against lefties, but he can more than hold his own, with a very patient, contact-oriented approach. This suggests he’s not a huge risk of being a platoon-only bat. The Cubs notably did not trade Caissie at the deadline, as he’s likely their insurance policy if Kyle Tucker leaves in free agency.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BP's Heat Check: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... -the-hill/
Tai Peete, OF, Seattle Mariners (High-A Everett): .308 (12-39), 6 R, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K, 2 SB.
Season Stats (High-A): .227/.286/.419, 16 HR, 19 SB.
The 30th-overall selection in 2023, Peete might finally be turning the corner after several months of lackluster production in High-A. The strikeout rate, which spiked to over 30% last season, has slowly begun to creep back into a more manageable number during the second half of this season. He’s also been able to tap into more pop this year at the plate, getting the ball in the air with more consistency and slugging a career high 16 home runs through his first 96 games. Peete can often get overlooked by the strong play of 2023 draft mates, Colt Emerson and Johnny Farmelo, but his youth and high upside profile will give him plenty of runway to develop in the lower minors.
Tai Peete, OF, Seattle Mariners (High-A Everett): .308 (12-39), 6 R, 6 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K, 2 SB.
Season Stats (High-A): .227/.286/.419, 16 HR, 19 SB.
The 30th-overall selection in 2023, Peete might finally be turning the corner after several months of lackluster production in High-A. The strikeout rate, which spiked to over 30% last season, has slowly begun to creep back into a more manageable number during the second half of this season. He’s also been able to tap into more pop this year at the plate, getting the ball in the air with more consistency and slugging a career high 16 home runs through his first 96 games. Peete can often get overlooked by the strong play of 2023 draft mates, Colt Emerson and Johnny Farmelo, but his youth and high upside profile will give him plenty of runway to develop in the lower minors.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... s-in-2025/
RISER: Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
Two years ago, Nolan McLean was best known as an outfielder and reliever for Oklahoma State. Today, the 24-year-old righthander is one of the most prominent starter prospects in the game.
The Mets drafted McLean as a two-way player in the third round in 2023. He didn’t fully commit to the mound until the second half of 2024.
This season in his first full year as a pitcher, McLean led all minor league pitchers with 38 strikeouts in July for Triple-A Syracuse. His ability to navigate the hazards of the International League, with its livelier ball, ABS challenge system and mature hitters, was notable.
Even more notable is how McLean has adapted his pitch mix. His high-spin sweeper has a rare combination of velocity and movement, averaging 86 mph with 15 inches of sweep.
McLean added a mid-90s two-seam fastball last season and now it’s a go-to pitch against righthanded batters. He also began developing a high-70s curveball while fine-tuning a high-80s cutter. Now, both have become essential to his attack plan versus opposite-hand batters.
RISER: Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
Two years ago, Nolan McLean was best known as an outfielder and reliever for Oklahoma State. Today, the 24-year-old righthander is one of the most prominent starter prospects in the game.
The Mets drafted McLean as a two-way player in the third round in 2023. He didn’t fully commit to the mound until the second half of 2024.
This season in his first full year as a pitcher, McLean led all minor league pitchers with 38 strikeouts in July for Triple-A Syracuse. His ability to navigate the hazards of the International League, with its livelier ball, ABS challenge system and mature hitters, was notable.
Even more notable is how McLean has adapted his pitch mix. His high-spin sweeper has a rare combination of velocity and movement, averaging 86 mph with 15 inches of sweep.
McLean added a mid-90s two-seam fastball last season and now it’s a go-to pitch against righthanded batters. He also began developing a high-70s curveball while fine-tuning a high-80s cutter. Now, both have become essential to his attack plan versus opposite-hand batters.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/top-prosp ... e-coverage
Owen Caissie, OF, Iowa (CHC No. 1/MLB No. 45)
Caissie continued his sizzling summer with another three-hit performance, punctuated by his 22nd long ball which equaled a career high set in 2023. The 22-year-old has been one of the Minors' best hitters since June, slashing .343/.438/.680 in 49 games with 30 extra-base hits -- including 15 homers -- and 32 RBIs. Caissie's 22 roundtrippers are tied for third in the Triple-A International League.
Jeferson Quero, C, Nashville (MIL No. 4/MLB No. 65)
Quero hit his first homer since July 12 and and equaled a career high with five RBIs to account for all of Triple-A Nashville's runs. The 22-year-old has hit safely in three of four games since returning from his second IL stint of the season. Quero, who also missed the first five weeks of the season with a strained hamstring, has 10 extra-base hits and 25 RBIs in 34 games for the Sounds.
Owen Caissie, OF, Iowa (CHC No. 1/MLB No. 45)
Caissie continued his sizzling summer with another three-hit performance, punctuated by his 22nd long ball which equaled a career high set in 2023. The 22-year-old has been one of the Minors' best hitters since June, slashing .343/.438/.680 in 49 games with 30 extra-base hits -- including 15 homers -- and 32 RBIs. Caissie's 22 roundtrippers are tied for third in the Triple-A International League.
Jeferson Quero, C, Nashville (MIL No. 4/MLB No. 65)
Quero hit his first homer since July 12 and and equaled a career high with five RBIs to account for all of Triple-A Nashville's runs. The 22-year-old has hit safely in three of four games since returning from his second IL stint of the season. Quero, who also missed the first five weeks of the season with a strained hamstring, has 10 extra-base hits and 25 RBIs in 34 games for the Sounds.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... er-3-hits/
Since June 1, few hitters on the planet have been as hot as the Cubs’ Owen Caissie. Since the start of June, Caissie has hit .343/.438/.680 with 15 home runs over 48 games. On Tuesday, Caissie went 3-for-5 with a homer and two singles. Caissie has shown improvements to his hit tool in his second run through Triple-A and has cut his strikeout rate to 23.3% this year. Though he continues to be blocked from MLB at-bats by the Cubs’ crowded outfield, his continued high-level production has him knocking on the door of the big leagues louder than ever.
Since June 1, few hitters on the planet have been as hot as the Cubs’ Owen Caissie. Since the start of June, Caissie has hit .343/.438/.680 with 15 home runs over 48 games. On Tuesday, Caissie went 3-for-5 with a homer and two singles. Caissie has shown improvements to his hit tool in his second run through Triple-A and has cut his strikeout rate to 23.3% this year. Though he continues to be blocked from MLB at-bats by the Cubs’ crowded outfield, his continued high-level production has him knocking on the door of the big leagues louder than ever.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/nolan-mclean-mets-callup
NEW YORK -- The Mets are about to promote one of the most promising pitching prospects they've developed in years.
No. 3 Mets prospect Nolan McLean, ranked 37th in baseball, will make his Major League debut Saturday in a start at Citi Field against the Mariners, according to multiple sources. McLean will replace struggling veteran Frankie Montas in the rotation, with a chance to stick there if he pitches well.
The club has not publicly confirmed the news, which team officials broke to McLean on Wednesday morning.
The Mets' third-round Draft pick in 2023, McLean began his professional career as a two-way player before becoming exclusively a pitcher early last season. When he did, McLean leveled up, developing into one of the most successful pitching prospects the Mets have employed in a decade.
Following an early-season promotion to Triple-A Syracuse this year, the 24-year-old McLean produced a 2.78 ERA over 16 appearances. He is in line to pitch Saturday on five days' rest.
The Mets chose McLean for the start over Brandon Sproat, another top prospect who has been a tick less consistent at Syracuse. McLean is known for a six-pitch mix that revolves around one of the most effective sweepers in Minor League Baseball.
NEW YORK -- The Mets are about to promote one of the most promising pitching prospects they've developed in years.
No. 3 Mets prospect Nolan McLean, ranked 37th in baseball, will make his Major League debut Saturday in a start at Citi Field against the Mariners, according to multiple sources. McLean will replace struggling veteran Frankie Montas in the rotation, with a chance to stick there if he pitches well.
The club has not publicly confirmed the news, which team officials broke to McLean on Wednesday morning.
The Mets' third-round Draft pick in 2023, McLean began his professional career as a two-way player before becoming exclusively a pitcher early last season. When he did, McLean leveled up, developing into one of the most successful pitching prospects the Mets have employed in a decade.
Following an early-season promotion to Triple-A Syracuse this year, the 24-year-old McLean produced a 2.78 ERA over 16 appearances. He is in line to pitch Saturday on five days' rest.
The Mets chose McLean for the start over Brandon Sproat, another top prospect who has been a tick less consistent at Syracuse. McLean is known for a six-pitch mix that revolves around one of the most effective sweepers in Minor League Baseball.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/biggest-b ... e-coverage
Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets (No. 37)
The Mets have had a recent trend of top pitching prospects struggling in their first taste of Triple-A, but not McLean. After an uneven first full season in '24, the '23 second-rounder reached the Minors' highest level after only five starts and emerged as one of the best pitchers in the International League, posting a 2.78 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across 16 appearances (13 starts). McLean's best weapon is his 70-grade sweeper, which he can spin at upward of 3,000 rpm. And it's hurtled him to The Show, he's expected to make his MLB debut on Saturday against the Mariners.
Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets (No. 37)
The Mets have had a recent trend of top pitching prospects struggling in their first taste of Triple-A, but not McLean. After an uneven first full season in '24, the '23 second-rounder reached the Minors' highest level after only five starts and emerged as one of the best pitchers in the International League, posting a 2.78 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across 16 appearances (13 starts). McLean's best weapon is his 70-grade sweeper, which he can spin at upward of 3,000 rpm. And it's hurtled him to The Show, he's expected to make his MLB debut on Saturday against the Mariners.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -saturday/
Righthander Nolan McLean, the 40th-ranked prospect in baseball and the Mets’ top pitching prospect, is scheduled to make his MLB debut on Saturday. SNY’s Andy Martino was first to report the news.
McLean began the season at Double-A Binghamton, but he quickly earned a promotion by going 3-1, 1.37 in five starts. He’s 5-4, 2.81 in 83.1 innings at Triple-A Syracuse with a 10.2% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate.
A big (6-foot-4) righty, McLean has blossomed after switching to a full-time focus on pitching. He was a two-way player at Oklahoma State and hit early in his pro career. His sweeper is a weapon, and it pairs well with his mid-90s fastball.
The Mets could use a boost from McLean. They have moved Frankie Montas to the bullpen, and the rotation has lacked stability behind Kodai Senga and David Peterson.
And from MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/what-to-e ... e-coverage
This Saturday, a new delectable item comes to Citi Field: Nolan McLean sliders.
The Mets are calling up MLB Pipeline’s No. 37 overall prospect to make his Major League debut with a home start this weekend against the Mariners, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported Wednesday.
Ranked as the top pitching prospect in New York’s system, the 24-year-old right-hander owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 127 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings with Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this season. Since joining the Minors’ top level in early May, he has a 2.78 ERA in 16 appearances (13 starts) in the International League, and his 27.0 percent strikeout rate ranks seventh among 51 pitchers with at least 80 Triple-A innings in 2025.
Since July 1, McLean leads the Minor Leagues with 52 strikeouts, fanning at least six in each of his seven outings (six starts) in that spell.
Taken in the third round of the 2023 Draft as a two-way player out of Oklahoma State, the 6-foot-2 hurler has flourished in his first full season fully focusing on pitching.
McLean’s trademark pitch is a monster 84-87 mph sweeper that averages 15.4 inches of gloveside movement and 2,872 rpm. It was his most-thrown pitch in Triple-A – it helps that he throws his mid-90s sinker and four-seamer almost equally, splitting his fastball usage – while opponents batted just .187 against it with a 30.1 percent whiff rate. Only Will Warren, Dustin May and Taylor Rogers have thrown sweepers with that much sweep and that high a spin rate in the Majors (min. 300 sweepers thrown).
Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, McLean tends to lean on the sweeper-sinker combo against righties with the latter pitch breaking around 16 inches armside, essentially mirroring the break of the sweeper and giving same-side hitters a wide horizontal zone on which to focus. Such an approach leads to a ton of groundballs; McLean’s 54.7 percent groundball rate is seventh-best among full-season Minor League qualifiers this year.
He’ll still use the sinker and sweeper against lefties too, but he’s more likely to fold in that four-seamer (which touched 97.7 mph with Syracuse) to incorporate more ride up in the zone, though the movement profile isn’t great. He also mixes in an 88-90 mph cutter that actually gets a tiny bit of armside movement and a 78-80 mph curveball that regularly exceeds 3,200 rpm and gets 18-19 inches of sweep and 57 inches of drop. He’s only gone to the deuce around one-eighth of the time against lefties, but those hitters missed on 42.9 percent of their swings against the curve in Triple-A.
McLean has an 85-88 mph changeup but treats it like a fifth pitch since it’s the offering he most often throws for a ball (around 49 percent of the time, per Synergy Sports).
As might be expected, the former Cowboy can run into pretty severe splits issues; righties have hit .153/.244/.211 against him over 235 plate appearances in 2025 while lefties have produced a more robust .232/.341/.364 line in 232 PA. His 10.6 percent walk rate with Syracuse was also a smidge below Triple-A average (10.9), but that control will be tested against more patient Major League hitters.
McLean could run into trouble against lefty-heavy lineups in The Show -- a reason why Seattle could make for an interesting first opponent with switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco flipping to that side -- but the Mets’ newest starter could still provide a unique look for even veteran MLB bats given his incredible feel for spin.
Righthander Nolan McLean, the 40th-ranked prospect in baseball and the Mets’ top pitching prospect, is scheduled to make his MLB debut on Saturday. SNY’s Andy Martino was first to report the news.
McLean began the season at Double-A Binghamton, but he quickly earned a promotion by going 3-1, 1.37 in five starts. He’s 5-4, 2.81 in 83.1 innings at Triple-A Syracuse with a 10.2% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate.
A big (6-foot-4) righty, McLean has blossomed after switching to a full-time focus on pitching. He was a two-way player at Oklahoma State and hit early in his pro career. His sweeper is a weapon, and it pairs well with his mid-90s fastball.
The Mets could use a boost from McLean. They have moved Frankie Montas to the bullpen, and the rotation has lacked stability behind Kodai Senga and David Peterson.
And from MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/what-to-e ... e-coverage
This Saturday, a new delectable item comes to Citi Field: Nolan McLean sliders.
The Mets are calling up MLB Pipeline’s No. 37 overall prospect to make his Major League debut with a home start this weekend against the Mariners, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported Wednesday.
Ranked as the top pitching prospect in New York’s system, the 24-year-old right-hander owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 127 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings with Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this season. Since joining the Minors’ top level in early May, he has a 2.78 ERA in 16 appearances (13 starts) in the International League, and his 27.0 percent strikeout rate ranks seventh among 51 pitchers with at least 80 Triple-A innings in 2025.
Since July 1, McLean leads the Minor Leagues with 52 strikeouts, fanning at least six in each of his seven outings (six starts) in that spell.
Taken in the third round of the 2023 Draft as a two-way player out of Oklahoma State, the 6-foot-2 hurler has flourished in his first full season fully focusing on pitching.
McLean’s trademark pitch is a monster 84-87 mph sweeper that averages 15.4 inches of gloveside movement and 2,872 rpm. It was his most-thrown pitch in Triple-A – it helps that he throws his mid-90s sinker and four-seamer almost equally, splitting his fastball usage – while opponents batted just .187 against it with a 30.1 percent whiff rate. Only Will Warren, Dustin May and Taylor Rogers have thrown sweepers with that much sweep and that high a spin rate in the Majors (min. 300 sweepers thrown).
Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, McLean tends to lean on the sweeper-sinker combo against righties with the latter pitch breaking around 16 inches armside, essentially mirroring the break of the sweeper and giving same-side hitters a wide horizontal zone on which to focus. Such an approach leads to a ton of groundballs; McLean’s 54.7 percent groundball rate is seventh-best among full-season Minor League qualifiers this year.
He’ll still use the sinker and sweeper against lefties too, but he’s more likely to fold in that four-seamer (which touched 97.7 mph with Syracuse) to incorporate more ride up in the zone, though the movement profile isn’t great. He also mixes in an 88-90 mph cutter that actually gets a tiny bit of armside movement and a 78-80 mph curveball that regularly exceeds 3,200 rpm and gets 18-19 inches of sweep and 57 inches of drop. He’s only gone to the deuce around one-eighth of the time against lefties, but those hitters missed on 42.9 percent of their swings against the curve in Triple-A.
McLean has an 85-88 mph changeup but treats it like a fifth pitch since it’s the offering he most often throws for a ball (around 49 percent of the time, per Synergy Sports).
As might be expected, the former Cowboy can run into pretty severe splits issues; righties have hit .153/.244/.211 against him over 235 plate appearances in 2025 while lefties have produced a more robust .232/.341/.364 line in 232 PA. His 10.6 percent walk rate with Syracuse was also a smidge below Triple-A average (10.9), but that control will be tested against more patient Major League hitters.
McLean could run into trouble against lefty-heavy lineups in The Show -- a reason why Seattle could make for an interesting first opponent with switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco flipping to that side -- but the Mets’ newest starter could still provide a unique look for even veteran MLB bats given his incredible feel for spin.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -thursday/
After two long years in Triple-A, Owen Caissie is reportedly being called up by the Cubs to the major leagues on Thursday. Caissie has hit .289/.389/.566 with 22 home runs over 93 games for Triple-A Iowa this season. A Top 100 Prospect, Caissie has been one of the most impressive hitters in the minors since June, as he’s in the midst of a serious hot streak. The 23-year-old brings easy plus power, on-base skills and the ability to play an average corner outfield. There are still questions around his bat-to-ball ability, but he’s consistently shown enough contact to get to his power so far throughout his professional career. A native Canadian, Caissie will debut in his home country, as the Cubs wrap up a three-game road series against the Blue Jays.
And from MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/owen-cais ... e-coverage
TORONTO -- The Cubs are calling up Canadian outfield prospect Owen Caissie from Triple-A Iowa, per reports from ESPN.
Caissie, ranked by MLB Pipeline as Chicago's top prospect and the No. 45 prospect in baseball, will make his big league debut at Rogers Centre for the finale of the Cubs series against the Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon. Caissie is from nearby Burlington, Ontario, located about 30 miles southwest of Toronto.
Caissie’s been tearing up Triple-A pitching this season. Through 93 games, he’s hitting .289 with 22 home runs and a .955 OPS. In 499 career Minor League games, he has hit 81 home runs with an .873 OPS.
The left-handed hitter was selected in the second round (45th overall) in the 2020 Draft by the Padres. He was dealt to Chicago on Dec. 29 of that year, along with right-hander Zach Davies, shortstop Reginald Preciado, shortstop Yeison Santana and outfielder Ismael Mena in a deal that sent right-hander Yu Darvish to San Diego.
After two long years in Triple-A, Owen Caissie is reportedly being called up by the Cubs to the major leagues on Thursday. Caissie has hit .289/.389/.566 with 22 home runs over 93 games for Triple-A Iowa this season. A Top 100 Prospect, Caissie has been one of the most impressive hitters in the minors since June, as he’s in the midst of a serious hot streak. The 23-year-old brings easy plus power, on-base skills and the ability to play an average corner outfield. There are still questions around his bat-to-ball ability, but he’s consistently shown enough contact to get to his power so far throughout his professional career. A native Canadian, Caissie will debut in his home country, as the Cubs wrap up a three-game road series against the Blue Jays.
And from MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/owen-cais ... e-coverage
TORONTO -- The Cubs are calling up Canadian outfield prospect Owen Caissie from Triple-A Iowa, per reports from ESPN.
Caissie, ranked by MLB Pipeline as Chicago's top prospect and the No. 45 prospect in baseball, will make his big league debut at Rogers Centre for the finale of the Cubs series against the Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon. Caissie is from nearby Burlington, Ontario, located about 30 miles southwest of Toronto.
Caissie’s been tearing up Triple-A pitching this season. Through 93 games, he’s hitting .289 with 22 home runs and a .955 OPS. In 499 career Minor League games, he has hit 81 home runs with an .873 OPS.
The left-handed hitter was selected in the second round (45th overall) in the 2020 Draft by the Padres. He was dealt to Chicago on Dec. 29 of that year, along with right-hander Zach Davies, shortstop Reginald Preciado, shortstop Yeison Santana and outfielder Ismael Mena in a deal that sent right-hander Yu Darvish to San Diego.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
One more for Caissie: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/what-to-e ... e-coverage
Five years later, the Yu Darvish trade finally will pay some dividends for the Cubs.
In December 2020, Chicago was coming off its fifth playoff berth in six seasons but looking to reduce payroll after the pandemic season. It nontendered Kyle Schwarber on Dec. 2, then made a bigger cost-cutting move four days after Christmas. The Cubs shipped Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies and four prospects who had yet to reach full-season ball: infielders Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena.
Davis posted a 5.78 ERA and led the National League in walks during his lone season in Chicago. Mena and Preciado have yet to reach Double-A, while Santana was released two years ago. The Cubs haven't been back to the postseason since 2020.
But the saving grace of the Darvish deal is expected to join the team for its game against the Blue Jays this afternoon. Caissie, ranked No. 45 on MLB Pipeline's recently revised Top 100 Prospects list, is from Burlington, Ont., and could make his big league debut against likely future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer about 35 miles from where he grew up.
One of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball, Caissie is expected to replace Miguel Amaya, who sprained his left ankle and was carted off the field in a 4-1 win over Toronto last night. The Cubs' offense could use a jolt after scoring just 33 runs in their last 10 games, during which they've gone 4-6 and fallen 7 1/2 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago does maintain a comfortable 5 1/2-game lead in the NL Wild Card race.
Caissie has been on a tear at Triple-A Iowa, slashing .383/.457/.617 with three home runs in his last 17 games. He's batting .289/.389/.566 overall with 22 homers in 93 contests, ranking third in the International League in homers, extra-base hits (50) and total bases (196) and fifth in slugging and OPS (.955) despite being one of the youngest players in the circuit (he turned 23 last month).
The Cubs have pushed Caissie aggressively since acquiring him, sending him to High-A at age 19 in 2022, and he repeatedly has responded to the challenge of facing significantly older competition. He was part of championship clubs at High-A South Bend and Double-A Tennessee in 2022 and 2023 before being one of the most productive hitters in prospect-laden lineups at Iowa the last two seasons.
With the bat speed and loft in his left-handed stroke and the strength and leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame, Caissie hits balls exceptionally hard for his age. His average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in Triple-A is on par with those of Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper (91.4 mph) in the Majors, while his max exit velo of 113.3 mph and average 12.4 degree launch angle are comparable to Harper's as well.
Caissie offers at least 30-homer upside, and his power plays from left-center to the right-field line and against both southpaws and right-handers. His aggressive mindset at the plate and naturally long swing have led to a 29 percent strikeout rate in the Minors, but he's also a career .280 hitter with a 14 percent walk rate. He has displayed better plate discipline in the last two months, maintaining a 20 percent K rate while drawing walks 13 percent of the time.
While he's known most for his slugging, Caissie's athleticism is a bit underrated. He can flash plus speed once he gets going and swipe an occasional base, though he's more of an average runner. He has improved his reads and routes in the outfield to the point where he's an average defender on the corners, and his plus arm strength fits nicely in right field.
It's unclear exactly where Caissie fits into a Cubs lineup that still stands third in MLB in scoring at 5.08 runs per game. Pete Crow-Armstrong may be slumping, but he's an MVP candidate providing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. Chicago has veterans Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker manning the outfield corners and Seiya Suzuki at DH.
There was thought that the Cubs might move Caissie at the Trade Deadline in search of starting pitching, but he's also a very nice insurance policy if Tucker departs as a free agent after this year. They've never filled the lefty-slugger void left when they bid goodbye to Schwarber, and Caissie could do just that.
Five years later, the Yu Darvish trade finally will pay some dividends for the Cubs.
In December 2020, Chicago was coming off its fifth playoff berth in six seasons but looking to reduce payroll after the pandemic season. It nontendered Kyle Schwarber on Dec. 2, then made a bigger cost-cutting move four days after Christmas. The Cubs shipped Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies and four prospects who had yet to reach full-season ball: infielders Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena.
Davis posted a 5.78 ERA and led the National League in walks during his lone season in Chicago. Mena and Preciado have yet to reach Double-A, while Santana was released two years ago. The Cubs haven't been back to the postseason since 2020.
But the saving grace of the Darvish deal is expected to join the team for its game against the Blue Jays this afternoon. Caissie, ranked No. 45 on MLB Pipeline's recently revised Top 100 Prospects list, is from Burlington, Ont., and could make his big league debut against likely future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer about 35 miles from where he grew up.
One of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball, Caissie is expected to replace Miguel Amaya, who sprained his left ankle and was carted off the field in a 4-1 win over Toronto last night. The Cubs' offense could use a jolt after scoring just 33 runs in their last 10 games, during which they've gone 4-6 and fallen 7 1/2 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago does maintain a comfortable 5 1/2-game lead in the NL Wild Card race.
Caissie has been on a tear at Triple-A Iowa, slashing .383/.457/.617 with three home runs in his last 17 games. He's batting .289/.389/.566 overall with 22 homers in 93 contests, ranking third in the International League in homers, extra-base hits (50) and total bases (196) and fifth in slugging and OPS (.955) despite being one of the youngest players in the circuit (he turned 23 last month).
The Cubs have pushed Caissie aggressively since acquiring him, sending him to High-A at age 19 in 2022, and he repeatedly has responded to the challenge of facing significantly older competition. He was part of championship clubs at High-A South Bend and Double-A Tennessee in 2022 and 2023 before being one of the most productive hitters in prospect-laden lineups at Iowa the last two seasons.
With the bat speed and loft in his left-handed stroke and the strength and leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame, Caissie hits balls exceptionally hard for his age. His average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in Triple-A is on par with those of Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper (91.4 mph) in the Majors, while his max exit velo of 113.3 mph and average 12.4 degree launch angle are comparable to Harper's as well.
Caissie offers at least 30-homer upside, and his power plays from left-center to the right-field line and against both southpaws and right-handers. His aggressive mindset at the plate and naturally long swing have led to a 29 percent strikeout rate in the Minors, but he's also a career .280 hitter with a 14 percent walk rate. He has displayed better plate discipline in the last two months, maintaining a 20 percent K rate while drawing walks 13 percent of the time.
While he's known most for his slugging, Caissie's athleticism is a bit underrated. He can flash plus speed once he gets going and swipe an occasional base, though he's more of an average runner. He has improved his reads and routes in the outfield to the point where he's an average defender on the corners, and his plus arm strength fits nicely in right field.
It's unclear exactly where Caissie fits into a Cubs lineup that still stands third in MLB in scoring at 5.08 runs per game. Pete Crow-Armstrong may be slumping, but he's an MVP candidate providing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. Chicago has veterans Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker manning the outfield corners and Seiya Suzuki at DH.
There was thought that the Cubs might move Caissie at the Trade Deadline in search of starting pitching, but he's also a very nice insurance policy if Tucker departs as a free agent after this year. They've never filled the lefty-slugger void left when they bid goodbye to Schwarber, and Caissie could do just that.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... in-august/
Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays
Acquired by the Rays in the Randy Arozarena deal at the 2024 trade deadline, Hopkins is a former two-way player in college who has found success on the mound as a professional. An outstanding athlete with a deep repertoire of pitches and premium stuff, he is one of the higher-upside pitching prospects in the game, as he’s still learning to harness and command his big stuff.
Throughout 2025, Hopkins has been a rock-solid performer in Double-A Montgomery’s rotation. In August, he made four starts, allowing two earned runs across 21 innings. He struck out 28 batters to 10 walks while holding opposing hitters to a .145 batting average. While his below-average control leads to a higher rate of walks, Hopkins consistently straddles the line of being effectively wild.
Hopkins mixes five pitches in a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. In August, his best pitch was the slider, which held opposing batters hitless with a 48% whiff rate overall. His fastball did a fair amount of heavy lifting, as well, as it was thrown 56% of the time and generated a 24% whiff rate and 33% chase rate. While he uses the fastball a great deal, it remains effective due to its blend of velocity, movement and command.
Hopkins will likely spend a majority of 2026 with Triple-A Durham but could debut late next season.
Brody Hopkins, RHP, Rays
Acquired by the Rays in the Randy Arozarena deal at the 2024 trade deadline, Hopkins is a former two-way player in college who has found success on the mound as a professional. An outstanding athlete with a deep repertoire of pitches and premium stuff, he is one of the higher-upside pitching prospects in the game, as he’s still learning to harness and command his big stuff.
Throughout 2025, Hopkins has been a rock-solid performer in Double-A Montgomery’s rotation. In August, he made four starts, allowing two earned runs across 21 innings. He struck out 28 batters to 10 walks while holding opposing hitters to a .145 batting average. While his below-average control leads to a higher rate of walks, Hopkins consistently straddles the line of being effectively wild.
Hopkins mixes five pitches in a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. In August, his best pitch was the slider, which held opposing batters hitless with a 48% whiff rate overall. His fastball did a fair amount of heavy lifting, as well, as it was thrown 56% of the time and generated a 24% whiff rate and 33% chase rate. While he uses the fastball a great deal, it remains effective due to its blend of velocity, movement and command.
Hopkins will likely spend a majority of 2026 with Triple-A Durham but could debut late next season.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/breakout- ... e-coverage
Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs: Long's 26 career homers rank second all-time at pitcher-friendly Long Beach State, and he has exceeded expectations since the Cubs drafted him in the ninth round two years ago. He's batting .307/.405/.489 with 19 homers in 124 games in Triple-A.
Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs: Long's 26 career homers rank second all-time at pitcher-friendly Long Beach State, and he has exceeded expectations since the Cubs drafted him in the ninth round two years ago. He's batting .307/.405/.489 with 19 homers in 124 games in Triple-A.
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From MLB: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/nolan-mcl ... e-coverage
DETROIT – Mets rookie right-hander Nolan McLean kept the magic going after a rough first inning, getting the win in a 12-5 thumping of the Tigers on Tuesday night at Comerica Park.
McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA) has now won each of his first four career starts – something neither Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden nor any other player in franchise history accomplished.
Falling behind 2-1 in the first inning didn’t define this outing for McLean, whose heavy-hitting teammates had his back just in case.
Juan Soto belted homer No. 37 and his fifth round-tripper in five games. Pete Alonso went deep twice to raise his homer total to 33. Catcher Luis Torrens hit his fifth of the year, an opposite-field liner off the foul pole in right that scored three runs in a five-run fourth inning against starter Sawyer Gipson-Long.
The Mets reached double digits in runs for the sixth time in the past 21 games.
“I think we’re recognizing hanging breaking balls really well,” said Alonso. “We’re doing damage on heaters really well. We’re doing a good job of letting the borderline pitches go and making pitchers pay when they come over the heart with a pitch.”
Designated hitter Jeff McNeil stroked three singles to drive in three runs. Left fielder Brandon Nimmo also had three singles and scored twice.
The Mets put the game away by scoring six runs off reliever Chris Paddack – who had been starting for Detroit – in the seventh inning.
“It’s just a lot of guys playing with confidence now, trusting each other,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “It feels like we’ve got the big guys at the top of the lineup. But especially the guys at the bottom, and today was a perfect example.
“With Torrens getting the huge three-run homer with two outs, [Brett] Baty having a really good night [with three hits and one RBI], guys getting on base and Jeff. One through nine, it’s a pretty good lineup, guys controlling the strike zone and doing damage when we have to.”
But back to McLean. He walked two batters in the first inning, and both scored on RBI singles.
McLean had allowed only two runs total in his first three games covering 20 1/3 innings. So had his bubble burst?
Nope.
Despite allowing six consecutive Tigers to reach base, McLean adjusted to settle down and retire the last 14 hitters he faced. He struck out seven and walked three with three hits over six innings in a quality start.
“Impressive outing for him,” said Mendoza. “The sweeper and the curve, he didn’t have command of those pitches. … He attacked and went to that sinker when he needed to, the changeup when he needed to, and then continued to mix in the sweeper and curveball.
“And before you know it, he’s gone six innings and given you a chance to win a baseball game – another good sign for a kid making just his fourth start. He showed a lot of maturity and has got so many weapons.”
Having six different pitches allows McLean to adjust better than most.
“Confidence is high,” said McLean. “It was my first time throwing to [Torrens] in a game, and he called a great game. We resorted to more four-seam, two-seam [fastballs] type of combo. And once we got ahead, we started going back to the sweeper and curveball for some swing and miss.”
Torrens said of McLean through interpreter Alan Suriel, “He surprises with what he’s been able to do, the adjustments he’s been able to make. He’s been excellent. It’s the attitude he has when he’s on that mound. He has that attitude and that flair of a superstar.”
McLean, New York’s third-round Draft pick from Oklahoma State in 2023, also has the most strikeouts (28) through his first four starts of any Met in history, and he became the first pitcher in MLB to win his first four starts since Chase Anderson of the Diamondbacks in 2014. McLean is the seventh pitcher to accomplish that feat in this century, after Anderson, Gerrit Cole ('13, Pirates), Scott Lewis ('08, Cleveland), Chuck James ('06, Braves), Jered Weaver ('06, Angels) and Kazuhisa Ishii ('02, Dodgers).
Winning your first four starts is no guarantee of future greatness. Anderson was 59-58 with a 4.41 ERA through 2024. However, finding his way through a tough beginning to this start was a good sign for McLean, 24.
“I was proud of the way I competed,” said McLean. “Obviously, first inning didn’t go the way I wanted. But I trusted my stuff and I knew if I could find some pitches later, I was going to be tough to hit.”
DETROIT – Mets rookie right-hander Nolan McLean kept the magic going after a rough first inning, getting the win in a 12-5 thumping of the Tigers on Tuesday night at Comerica Park.
McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA) has now won each of his first four career starts – something neither Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden nor any other player in franchise history accomplished.
Falling behind 2-1 in the first inning didn’t define this outing for McLean, whose heavy-hitting teammates had his back just in case.
Juan Soto belted homer No. 37 and his fifth round-tripper in five games. Pete Alonso went deep twice to raise his homer total to 33. Catcher Luis Torrens hit his fifth of the year, an opposite-field liner off the foul pole in right that scored three runs in a five-run fourth inning against starter Sawyer Gipson-Long.
The Mets reached double digits in runs for the sixth time in the past 21 games.
“I think we’re recognizing hanging breaking balls really well,” said Alonso. “We’re doing damage on heaters really well. We’re doing a good job of letting the borderline pitches go and making pitchers pay when they come over the heart with a pitch.”
Designated hitter Jeff McNeil stroked three singles to drive in three runs. Left fielder Brandon Nimmo also had three singles and scored twice.
The Mets put the game away by scoring six runs off reliever Chris Paddack – who had been starting for Detroit – in the seventh inning.
“It’s just a lot of guys playing with confidence now, trusting each other,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “It feels like we’ve got the big guys at the top of the lineup. But especially the guys at the bottom, and today was a perfect example.
“With Torrens getting the huge three-run homer with two outs, [Brett] Baty having a really good night [with three hits and one RBI], guys getting on base and Jeff. One through nine, it’s a pretty good lineup, guys controlling the strike zone and doing damage when we have to.”
But back to McLean. He walked two batters in the first inning, and both scored on RBI singles.
McLean had allowed only two runs total in his first three games covering 20 1/3 innings. So had his bubble burst?
Nope.
Despite allowing six consecutive Tigers to reach base, McLean adjusted to settle down and retire the last 14 hitters he faced. He struck out seven and walked three with three hits over six innings in a quality start.
“Impressive outing for him,” said Mendoza. “The sweeper and the curve, he didn’t have command of those pitches. … He attacked and went to that sinker when he needed to, the changeup when he needed to, and then continued to mix in the sweeper and curveball.
“And before you know it, he’s gone six innings and given you a chance to win a baseball game – another good sign for a kid making just his fourth start. He showed a lot of maturity and has got so many weapons.”
Having six different pitches allows McLean to adjust better than most.
“Confidence is high,” said McLean. “It was my first time throwing to [Torrens] in a game, and he called a great game. We resorted to more four-seam, two-seam [fastballs] type of combo. And once we got ahead, we started going back to the sweeper and curveball for some swing and miss.”
Torrens said of McLean through interpreter Alan Suriel, “He surprises with what he’s been able to do, the adjustments he’s been able to make. He’s been excellent. It’s the attitude he has when he’s on that mound. He has that attitude and that flair of a superstar.”
McLean, New York’s third-round Draft pick from Oklahoma State in 2023, also has the most strikeouts (28) through his first four starts of any Met in history, and he became the first pitcher in MLB to win his first four starts since Chase Anderson of the Diamondbacks in 2014. McLean is the seventh pitcher to accomplish that feat in this century, after Anderson, Gerrit Cole ('13, Pirates), Scott Lewis ('08, Cleveland), Chuck James ('06, Braves), Jered Weaver ('06, Angels) and Kazuhisa Ishii ('02, Dodgers).
Winning your first four starts is no guarantee of future greatness. Anderson was 59-58 with a 4.41 ERA through 2024. However, finding his way through a tough beginning to this start was a good sign for McLean, 24.
“I was proud of the way I competed,” said McLean. “Obviously, first inning didn’t go the way I wanted. But I trusted my stuff and I knew if I could find some pitches later, I was going to be tough to hit.”
Re: Down on the Farm - 2025
From FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-am-declar ... all-along/
I don’t think you can do this job for any amount of time without getting attached to particular players. Not even in the sense of having love or affection — certain ballplayers are just interesting to certain writers. For me, that manifests in just checking in with those players once or twice a season to see how they’re doing. Which reminds me, I’m overdue for my next updates on Willy Adames and Trevor Rogers.
I sometimes preface blogs about such players with the phrase, “Longtime readers might remember…”
Well, longtime readers might remember Hurston Waldrep’s splitter.
Waldrep’s splitter is a magnificent exemplar of one of my favorite pitches in the game: The ultra-low-spin splitter/split-change/forkball. He deployed it to devastating effect in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, which led to the Braves taking him 24th overall, a pick I lauded as one of the steals of the draft.
I compared Waldrep’s splitter favorably to Paul Skenes’ slider at the time, and marveled at his ability to combine a high-velo fastball and a high-spin breaking ball with this super-low-spin offspeed pitch. Pitchers with the ability to check all those boxes are few, but the following names are among them: Félix Bautista, George Kirby, Hunter Brown, Kodai Senga, Logan Gilbert, and Shohei Ohtani.
So forgive me for getting a little out over my skis on Waldrep.
Which is what seemed like had happened at this time last year. I wrote about Waldrep last June when he made his big league debut, in which he looked like a god for three innings before surrendering seven runs in the fourth. A week later, the same thing: 3 1/3 innings, two home runs, four walks, six earned runs. The Braves sent Waldrep back to Gwinnett after that, his career ERA swollen to 16.71, and forgot about him.
Truly, it appeared that they had. Atlanta entered the season with absolutely terrific rotation depth, in terms of high-end major league talent, Quad-A innings-eater types, and upper-minors prospects who could be called on at some point during the season. Sure, they had injuries to deal with, but there were plenty of able arms to hold the line temporarily. So I was not unduly concerned for Waldrep when he didn’t break camp with the team, and to be fair, he wasn’t exactly knocking the door down either.
In his first 12 appearances at Triple-A this year, dating from Opening Day to June 8, Waldrep posted a 6.35 ERA and an opponent OBP of .378. He struck out just over a batter an inning but also issued 34 unintentional walks in 51 innings. And because when it rains it pours, opponents were also 21-for-21 against him in stolen base attempts. So I’m not saying I’m outraged or anything that Waldrep had to wait until August before he saw his first major league action of the year.
Nevertheless, I had not appreciated how far down the depth chart he had fallen. This year, the Braves used 15 starting pitchers before they turned to Waldrep. That includes stars Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, 2024 breakout guys Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach, and perpetual Next Men Up Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder. They gave AJ Smith-Shawver nine starts before his elbow gave out, and cycled through a variety of openers and spot starters from the bullpen, as well as some more upper-minors depth guys like Davis Daniel.
But you can tell that things got really bleak when Atlanta started grabbing starters off waivers and the DFA scrap heap: Joey Wentz, Carlos Carrasco, Erick Fedde. This came after Waldrep was established in the rotation, but last week they fed poor Cal Quantrill to a hungry Kyle Schwarber like he was the cow in the raptor pen at the beginning of Jurassic Park, and with similar results.
I’d say that the Braves only turned to Waldrep after they were out of ideas, but 2025 Carlos Carrasco is beyond out of ideas. Not that this has had any ill effect on Waldrep, you see.
The former Florida Gator made a 5 2/3-inning, one-run relief appearance on August 2, then joined the rotation on August 9. Now, given my history of saying hyperbolic things about Waldrep, I feel obliged to point out that what comes next is absolutely literally true: Entering play Tuesday, 57 pitchers have thrown 30 or more innings in the majors since the start of August, and Waldrep has the lowest ERA of any of them.
I’m serious: 1.01 in 35 2/3 innings. Six outings, all of them at least 5 1/3 innings in length, none involving more than a single run allowed. Far from being the next-best thing to Paul Skenes, over the past month Waldrep has made Skenes look like Antonio Senzatela.
Now for just a little bit of cold water. For the first four weeks of Waldrep’s second go-around in the big leagues, he would not have noticed that he got promoted based on the level of competition. His first five opponents were the Reds, the Marlins, the Guardians, the White Sox, and the Marlins again. Those four clubs are all between 21st and 28th in the league in team wRC+. Plus it’s a small sample to begin with.
But he faced the Phillies on the most recent episode of Sunday Night Baseball and did just fine: four hits, one run, and a career-high nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. And even bad teams have some good hitters, and Waldrep has held his own. This season, Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, José Ramírez, Kyle Stowers, Bryce Harper, and Elly De La Cruz are a combined 0-for-16 with seven strikeouts against the Braves rookie. Schwarber has struck out every time he’s faced Waldrep so far this year, all on splitters.
Here’s the last one, since I feel like I owe you guys a fun video after all that preamble.
https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/N3lSWUFfV0 ... xBRQ==.mp4
Schwarber was just three days removed from a four-homer game at this point, and Waldrep literally brought him to his knees.
The splitter is Waldrep’s most-used pitch, even to right-handed hitters, and not a lot has changed on that front. I mean, why would you? To change Waldrep’s splitter would be an affront to God the Creator. He is throwing it a tick harder, with more vertical movement, but it never had much arm-side break to begin with. This pitch has always been about a sudden down-elevator tumble, not great arm-side break.
But something had to change. Even accounting for the fact that Waldrep’s major league career, in total, has lasted eight games and 42 2/3 innings, this guy gave up an ERA last year that would’ve put him smack in the middle of the reign of Louis XIV. And this year, he’s allowed one earned run a week.
Last season, Waldrep basically threw three pitches: Most commonly a four-seamer, followed by the splitter and a slider. (He also threw five curveballs over two starts, which isn’t really worth caring about.)
During the Bad Times, Waldrep mostly followed the standard platoon approach, throwing splitters to opposite-handed hitters and breaking balls to same-handed opponents. This essentially made him two different two-pitch pitchers, one for each side of the plate.
Here’s the problem, or at least a problem. Remember how I said Waldrep’s splitter doesn’t have much horizontal movement? Neither does his slider, and they come in at the same velocity band — about 86 to 87 mph — with similar vertical movement. This is still the case, in fact.
So far this season, according to Baseball Savant, 438 pitchers have thrown 50 sliders, as well as 50 examples of a single offspeed pitch (i.e. splitter or changeup). Out of those 438 pitchers, Waldrep has the third-smallest difference between those two pitches in horizontal movement. There’s only a 2.1-inch difference between his slider and splitter in induced vertical break, and only a 0.7-mph difference in velocity.
Gilbert, a pitcher to whom I’ve compared Waldrep before, is one of the two pitchers with less horizontal daylight between splitter and slider, but Gilbert’s splitter is more than five mph slower than his slider. They’re obviously different pitches, even before you look at things like context and spin rate.
With that information, Waldrep’s struggles last year begin to make sense; evil split-change or not, he was throwing one fastball, and two secondary pitches that ended up in basically the same place at the same time.
Two things are different with Waldrep’s repertoire this year. First, he’s throwing his curveball more. Not a lot more (only 12% of the time), but more than the slider. He’s pounding the deuce more frequently to lefties (16.0% of pitches) than righties, which on its surface flies in the face of everything we know about platoon-based pitching theory. Throwing breaking balls to opposite-handed batters is usually a bad idea.
But in the context of Waldrep’s slider and splitter, it makes sense. His curveball is a completely distinct pitch, one that allows him to drop into a different velocity band (the low 80s) that he wasn’t able to touch before, and with significant glove-side movement unmatched by anything else in his repertoire. Lefties have only made contact with it on half of their swings, and they’ve only put it in play twice. If nothing else, it’s a much-needed new look for Waldrep.
The other thing that’s changed is (takes a shot, puts a dollar in the swear jar), Waldrep has added a cutter.
It’s more than that, in fact. Waldrep has all but abandoned his four-seamer entirely, in favor of a fastball mix that’s about two-thirds cutters and one-third sinkers. (Fastballs as a whole make up a little less than 40% of Waldrep’s total output.)
I mentioned earlier that Waldrep had struggled in the upper minors while the Braves were in dire need of arms, and that as of June 8, his Triple-A ERA was 6.35. Well, he made seven starts between that date and his call-up, and over that time he allowed a 1.99 ERA, with an opponent slash line of .203/.287/.345. That’s the kind of outstanding performance that begs for a shot in the majors, even in a small sample.
I drew the dividing line between Waldrep’s 12th and 13th minor league starts this season. With that in mind, here’s his start-by-start fastball mix in Triple-A. Let me know if anything changed around start no. 13.
I still think there’s work to be done on Waldrep’s menu of fastballs; even in a small sample, opponents have a .400 xwOBA or better against all three of the cutter, the slider, and the vestigial four-seamer (all 13 of them). But Waldrep doesn’t throw that many fastballs; out of 239 pitchers who have thrown 250 or more fastballs as starting pitchers this year, only 16 (including Gilbert) have thrown fewer all-type fastballs than Waldrep.
But he’s not getting absolutely slaughtered on hard stuff like he was last year; none of those three fastballs are more than a run either side of average, according to Baseball Savant.
More promising: Here’s how opponents are faring against Waldrep’s secondary pitches: .088 wOBA and 45.7% whiff rate against the splitter, .126 wOBA and 31.3% whiff rate on the curveball, and .223 wOBA and 19.4% whiff rate on the slider, which was an absolute liability last year. That’ll play.
In other words, Hurston Waldrep is good now. Just like I said he’d be all along. I have predicted the future. You’re welcome.
I don’t think you can do this job for any amount of time without getting attached to particular players. Not even in the sense of having love or affection — certain ballplayers are just interesting to certain writers. For me, that manifests in just checking in with those players once or twice a season to see how they’re doing. Which reminds me, I’m overdue for my next updates on Willy Adames and Trevor Rogers.
I sometimes preface blogs about such players with the phrase, “Longtime readers might remember…”
Well, longtime readers might remember Hurston Waldrep’s splitter.
Waldrep’s splitter is a magnificent exemplar of one of my favorite pitches in the game: The ultra-low-spin splitter/split-change/forkball. He deployed it to devastating effect in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, which led to the Braves taking him 24th overall, a pick I lauded as one of the steals of the draft.
I compared Waldrep’s splitter favorably to Paul Skenes’ slider at the time, and marveled at his ability to combine a high-velo fastball and a high-spin breaking ball with this super-low-spin offspeed pitch. Pitchers with the ability to check all those boxes are few, but the following names are among them: Félix Bautista, George Kirby, Hunter Brown, Kodai Senga, Logan Gilbert, and Shohei Ohtani.
So forgive me for getting a little out over my skis on Waldrep.
Which is what seemed like had happened at this time last year. I wrote about Waldrep last June when he made his big league debut, in which he looked like a god for three innings before surrendering seven runs in the fourth. A week later, the same thing: 3 1/3 innings, two home runs, four walks, six earned runs. The Braves sent Waldrep back to Gwinnett after that, his career ERA swollen to 16.71, and forgot about him.
Truly, it appeared that they had. Atlanta entered the season with absolutely terrific rotation depth, in terms of high-end major league talent, Quad-A innings-eater types, and upper-minors prospects who could be called on at some point during the season. Sure, they had injuries to deal with, but there were plenty of able arms to hold the line temporarily. So I was not unduly concerned for Waldrep when he didn’t break camp with the team, and to be fair, he wasn’t exactly knocking the door down either.
In his first 12 appearances at Triple-A this year, dating from Opening Day to June 8, Waldrep posted a 6.35 ERA and an opponent OBP of .378. He struck out just over a batter an inning but also issued 34 unintentional walks in 51 innings. And because when it rains it pours, opponents were also 21-for-21 against him in stolen base attempts. So I’m not saying I’m outraged or anything that Waldrep had to wait until August before he saw his first major league action of the year.
Nevertheless, I had not appreciated how far down the depth chart he had fallen. This year, the Braves used 15 starting pitchers before they turned to Waldrep. That includes stars Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, 2024 breakout guys Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach, and perpetual Next Men Up Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder. They gave AJ Smith-Shawver nine starts before his elbow gave out, and cycled through a variety of openers and spot starters from the bullpen, as well as some more upper-minors depth guys like Davis Daniel.
But you can tell that things got really bleak when Atlanta started grabbing starters off waivers and the DFA scrap heap: Joey Wentz, Carlos Carrasco, Erick Fedde. This came after Waldrep was established in the rotation, but last week they fed poor Cal Quantrill to a hungry Kyle Schwarber like he was the cow in the raptor pen at the beginning of Jurassic Park, and with similar results.
I’d say that the Braves only turned to Waldrep after they were out of ideas, but 2025 Carlos Carrasco is beyond out of ideas. Not that this has had any ill effect on Waldrep, you see.
The former Florida Gator made a 5 2/3-inning, one-run relief appearance on August 2, then joined the rotation on August 9. Now, given my history of saying hyperbolic things about Waldrep, I feel obliged to point out that what comes next is absolutely literally true: Entering play Tuesday, 57 pitchers have thrown 30 or more innings in the majors since the start of August, and Waldrep has the lowest ERA of any of them.
I’m serious: 1.01 in 35 2/3 innings. Six outings, all of them at least 5 1/3 innings in length, none involving more than a single run allowed. Far from being the next-best thing to Paul Skenes, over the past month Waldrep has made Skenes look like Antonio Senzatela.
Now for just a little bit of cold water. For the first four weeks of Waldrep’s second go-around in the big leagues, he would not have noticed that he got promoted based on the level of competition. His first five opponents were the Reds, the Marlins, the Guardians, the White Sox, and the Marlins again. Those four clubs are all between 21st and 28th in the league in team wRC+. Plus it’s a small sample to begin with.
But he faced the Phillies on the most recent episode of Sunday Night Baseball and did just fine: four hits, one run, and a career-high nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. And even bad teams have some good hitters, and Waldrep has held his own. This season, Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, José Ramírez, Kyle Stowers, Bryce Harper, and Elly De La Cruz are a combined 0-for-16 with seven strikeouts against the Braves rookie. Schwarber has struck out every time he’s faced Waldrep so far this year, all on splitters.
Here’s the last one, since I feel like I owe you guys a fun video after all that preamble.
https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/N3lSWUFfV0 ... xBRQ==.mp4
Schwarber was just three days removed from a four-homer game at this point, and Waldrep literally brought him to his knees.
The splitter is Waldrep’s most-used pitch, even to right-handed hitters, and not a lot has changed on that front. I mean, why would you? To change Waldrep’s splitter would be an affront to God the Creator. He is throwing it a tick harder, with more vertical movement, but it never had much arm-side break to begin with. This pitch has always been about a sudden down-elevator tumble, not great arm-side break.
But something had to change. Even accounting for the fact that Waldrep’s major league career, in total, has lasted eight games and 42 2/3 innings, this guy gave up an ERA last year that would’ve put him smack in the middle of the reign of Louis XIV. And this year, he’s allowed one earned run a week.
Last season, Waldrep basically threw three pitches: Most commonly a four-seamer, followed by the splitter and a slider. (He also threw five curveballs over two starts, which isn’t really worth caring about.)
During the Bad Times, Waldrep mostly followed the standard platoon approach, throwing splitters to opposite-handed hitters and breaking balls to same-handed opponents. This essentially made him two different two-pitch pitchers, one for each side of the plate.
Here’s the problem, or at least a problem. Remember how I said Waldrep’s splitter doesn’t have much horizontal movement? Neither does his slider, and they come in at the same velocity band — about 86 to 87 mph — with similar vertical movement. This is still the case, in fact.
So far this season, according to Baseball Savant, 438 pitchers have thrown 50 sliders, as well as 50 examples of a single offspeed pitch (i.e. splitter or changeup). Out of those 438 pitchers, Waldrep has the third-smallest difference between those two pitches in horizontal movement. There’s only a 2.1-inch difference between his slider and splitter in induced vertical break, and only a 0.7-mph difference in velocity.
Gilbert, a pitcher to whom I’ve compared Waldrep before, is one of the two pitchers with less horizontal daylight between splitter and slider, but Gilbert’s splitter is more than five mph slower than his slider. They’re obviously different pitches, even before you look at things like context and spin rate.
With that information, Waldrep’s struggles last year begin to make sense; evil split-change or not, he was throwing one fastball, and two secondary pitches that ended up in basically the same place at the same time.
Two things are different with Waldrep’s repertoire this year. First, he’s throwing his curveball more. Not a lot more (only 12% of the time), but more than the slider. He’s pounding the deuce more frequently to lefties (16.0% of pitches) than righties, which on its surface flies in the face of everything we know about platoon-based pitching theory. Throwing breaking balls to opposite-handed batters is usually a bad idea.
But in the context of Waldrep’s slider and splitter, it makes sense. His curveball is a completely distinct pitch, one that allows him to drop into a different velocity band (the low 80s) that he wasn’t able to touch before, and with significant glove-side movement unmatched by anything else in his repertoire. Lefties have only made contact with it on half of their swings, and they’ve only put it in play twice. If nothing else, it’s a much-needed new look for Waldrep.
The other thing that’s changed is (takes a shot, puts a dollar in the swear jar), Waldrep has added a cutter.
It’s more than that, in fact. Waldrep has all but abandoned his four-seamer entirely, in favor of a fastball mix that’s about two-thirds cutters and one-third sinkers. (Fastballs as a whole make up a little less than 40% of Waldrep’s total output.)
I mentioned earlier that Waldrep had struggled in the upper minors while the Braves were in dire need of arms, and that as of June 8, his Triple-A ERA was 6.35. Well, he made seven starts between that date and his call-up, and over that time he allowed a 1.99 ERA, with an opponent slash line of .203/.287/.345. That’s the kind of outstanding performance that begs for a shot in the majors, even in a small sample.
I drew the dividing line between Waldrep’s 12th and 13th minor league starts this season. With that in mind, here’s his start-by-start fastball mix in Triple-A. Let me know if anything changed around start no. 13.
I still think there’s work to be done on Waldrep’s menu of fastballs; even in a small sample, opponents have a .400 xwOBA or better against all three of the cutter, the slider, and the vestigial four-seamer (all 13 of them). But Waldrep doesn’t throw that many fastballs; out of 239 pitchers who have thrown 250 or more fastballs as starting pitchers this year, only 16 (including Gilbert) have thrown fewer all-type fastballs than Waldrep.
But he’s not getting absolutely slaughtered on hard stuff like he was last year; none of those three fastballs are more than a run either side of average, according to Baseball Savant.
More promising: Here’s how opponents are faring against Waldrep’s secondary pitches: .088 wOBA and 45.7% whiff rate against the splitter, .126 wOBA and 31.3% whiff rate on the curveball, and .223 wOBA and 19.4% whiff rate on the slider, which was an absolute liability last year. That’ll play.
In other words, Hurston Waldrep is good now. Just like I said he’d be all along. I have predicted the future. You’re welcome.
