Down on the Farm - 2025

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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/what-to-e ... ros-in-mlb

On March 27, 2023, Cam Smith was a Florida State freshman batting .264 with 28 strikeouts through his first 21 college games. Exactly two years later, he will spend Opening Day as a member of the Astros.

Smith has just 32 games of pro experience, making his rise to an Opening Day roster the third-quickest among position players since the Draft era began in 1965. Only Pete Incaviglia of the 1986 Rangers (zero games) and John Olerud of the 1990 Blue Jays (six) did it quicker.

When they acquired Smith along with Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski in the Kyle Tucker trade with the Cubs in December, the Astros figured he'd be their third baseman of the future but would need at least most of this season in the Minors to develop. Instead, the 22-year-old ranked No. 58 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list is their right fielder of the present, switching positions on the fly and replacing three-time All-Star Tucker in their lineup.

Smith's ascent began in the Cape Cod League after his freshman season, where he finished second in homers (six) and fifth in batting (.347) while scouts named him the wood-bat summer league's top prospect. He adopted a more compact stance at the plate, reined in his right-handed swing and approach and began using the entire field.

Those changes led to dramatic improvements with the Seminoles as well. Smith boosted his OPS from .843 in his first season to 1.142 in his second while reducing his strikeout rate from 29 to 15 percent. He earned All-America honors, helped Florida State reach the College World Series and signed with the Cubs for $5,070,700 as the 14th overall pick in the Draft.

Smith continued to rake after turning pro. He homered in six consecutive games in Single-A, slashed .313/.396/.609 between three levels and added another blast in the Double-A Southern League playoffs. He posted similar numbers in the Grapefruit League this spring while going deep four times in 15 games, prompting Houston to shift him to right field in mid-March to expedite his path to Daikin Park.

While Smith has played just five pro games above High-A and almost certainly will need some time to adjust to big league pitching, he has the tools to hold his own as a rookie. He has impressive bat speed and strength, and he regularly barrels balls and produces high exit velocities with his more polished approach.

The only real concern with Smith's bat is his tendency to put the ball on the ground, leading to groundball/flyball ratios of 2.6 at Florida State last spring, 1.1 in his pro debut and 1.9 in Spring Training. He still projects as a solid hitter with 25 homers per year, perhaps more if he can launch more balls in the air and tap more into his well-above-average raw power.

Most of Smith's value will come from his offensive production. He has fringy speed and shows decent range and plus arm strength at third base, though he's an erratic defender at the hot corner and inconsistent with the accuracy of his throws. He moves well enough to cover ground in right field and has the arm for the position.

Jackson Merrill made the transition from Minor League infielder to big league outfielder well enough last year to finish second in National League Rookie of the Year Award balloting, so it can be done. Merrill did have the advantages of superior athleticism, more pro experience and more time to make the defensive transition. But if Smith can hit close to as well as he has for the last 21 months, the Astros won't worry about his glove.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BP's The Call Up: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ros-debut/

The Situation: Cam Smith has simply torn the cover off baseballs for the last 20 months or so. While he has very little pro experience—and even less outfield experience—the Astros will break camp with him as their starting right fielder, betting on his athleticism and bat to play in a corner spot immediately.

The Background: Those scant 20 months ago, Cam Smith was coming off a freshman season at Florida State where he hit .258 and struck out in around a quarter of his plate appearances. His OPS jumped 140 points with wood that summer in the Cape Cod League, and he followed it up with 1.142 OPS back in the ACC with almost as many walks as strikeouts as a draft-eligible Sophomore.The Cubs snatched him up with the 14th pick in the draft last summer, and he kept hitting in the pros. Ranked as the 20th-best prospect in baseball, Smith was traded to Houston this offseason as part of the Kyle Tucker package, and after a scorching hot start to his spring—and the 2024 offensive struggles of the Astros other outfield bats—he played himself into major-league roster contention. While he’s been almost exclusively a third baseman by trade—he moonlighted in left for Hyannis on rare occasions—he’s going to start in right field for Houston on Opening Day and maybe just keep hitting enough it won’t matter.

The Scouting Report: Given the lack of pro reps for Smith, I will somewhat default to our pre-draft scouting report. An offseason swing change added both more contact and power to his game, and while he doesn’t have the most optimized swing for pull-side power, he hits the ball very hard to all fields and did lift it a little more in spring training. Obviously the Crawford Boxes are an enticing target given his handedness, so what he does pull hard in the air could regularly find the seats. Smith’s swing is compact and strong, working from a low hand set, and geared more towards driving the ball to the right-center-field gap. While the over-the-fence power may lag slightly over the raw exits for a bit, we pegged him as a quick-moving above-average hit and power bat on the Astros offseason list—although perhaps not this quick—and I’d expect those to be bumped to plus and plus after a year or two under his belt in the bigs.

A decent chunk of Smith’s aggressive post-draft ranking was due to his slick-fielding at third base. Smith has a well-filled out, large frame, but really only foot speed was keeping him from being a viable shortstop, as he projected as a plus third baseman with a good first step, hands, and arm. His range should be fine in a corner outfield spot, assuming he can learn even average reads and routes on the fly, but it is a little odd they are playing Maurcio Dubon and/or Brendan Rodgers in the infield instead of him. It’s just one more thing to learn on the job. The other thing he will have to learn on the job is major-league stuff and sequencing, as his relevant amateur and minor-league experience won’t really have prepared him for it, and a lot of his damage in spring was done early on against pitchers getting their work in. I think Smith will eventually make the requisite adjustments in-season, but make no mistake, this is a very aggressive assignment.

Immediate Major-League Future: I’m a big Cam Smith believer, and part of me thinks he might just win AL Rookie of the Year, but the more likely scenario is something more akin to Wyatt Langford’s 2024 season: a half-season of intermittent struggles at the plate—while staying just above water offensively—followed by a strong second half. —Jeffrey Paternostro

Fantasy Impact: Watching what Smith is capable of in the big leagues is going to be fascinating. With barely any time above A-ball, PECOTA is treating him the way it treats lots of rookies and forecasting him for a performance that’s well below average. However, the Astros are still competitive and they’re not going to willingly jam up their lineup by running out a guy who’s going to be a net negative. They’re also committed to giving young players everyday at-bats, and have valued each player knowing their role on a daily basis. These are the kinds of soft data points that matter over a long fantasy season.

He’ll probably hit in the lower third of the order, though, and that’s going to reduce his ability to tally counting stats. Jeremy Pena, who will likely hit ahead of him, has a career OBP of .307. Mauricio Dubon and Jake Myers are glove-first players who are unlikely to drive him in. And who knows⁠—if things get really weird and the team has a super slow start again, it’s probably not out of the question that they shake things up and send Smith to the minors. His making the team is a fun story but rookies in a fantasy setting should be approached with caution far more often than not. He’d make the most sense as a fifth outfielder or bench guy in deeper leagues. ⁠—Tim Jackson
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... ackfields/

Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
Now that he’s put the bat down, McLean’s stock has gone up. The righthander showed an electric arsenal on the backfields this spring, including four- and two-seam fastballs in the mid-to-upper 90s and a slider with the potential to be a double-plus pitch. His mix also includes a cutter, curveball and changeup, but the fastball-slider combination is more than enough to ride to the big leagues. He needs to add some more consistency—he’ll mix in a few 40-grade sliders, as well—and hone his command and control, but the early returns on McLean this spring are extremely positive.


Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
The Guardians landed a herd of talented prep arms in the 2024 draft, and Doughty was one of the contenders for the biggest prize of the group. The second-rounder out of high school in California showed well this spring thanks to a combination of tools and polish. He worked with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and backed it with a curveball and changeup that have a chance to settle in the 50- or 55-grade range. Scouts were also impressed by Doughty’s pitchability and his feel to land his stuff in the strike zone or bury it for chases.


- D-backs RHP Yordin Chalas has long been known for his loose, live arm that produces mid-90s velocity and slicing sliders. Now, though, he’s begun flashing a high-80s changeup with solid drop and fade. If he turns those flashes into more consistent results, he’ll greatly increase his chances to stick as a starter.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... ars-it-up/

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Atlanta Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett): 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
Waldrep seemed poised to be a major contributor in Atlanta last season but couldn’t take advantage of his opportunity. His two major league starts were less than ideal with the former first round selection allowing 13 earned runs and walking eight over the course of seven innings. The fastball looked much improved in his debut outing of the year, generating whiffs with a velocity that has returned to the upper 90s. If the heater can continue to improve, Waldrep can pair it with his nasty splitter to get another shot at earning big league innings.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... bye-bye-o/

Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals (Triple-A Rochester): 2-3, HR, R, RBI.
Fifth on our Nationals list and profiled for fantasy purposes by Ryan Boyer, Brady is a powerhouse—his prodigious pop will need to carry his profile in the big leagues, lest he be bogged down by a chase-inflated K rate.

Owen Caissie, OF, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa): 3-4, 3B, R, RBI.
The big Canadian continues to be a really fun prospect to dream on, putting up good minor league numbers that would be better if his swing were more optimized. He was third on our Cubs list.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA's : Breakout Pitching Prospects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... h-in-2025/

Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
Cleveland made a strategic decision in 2024 to spread money around the draft board and target a strong trio of prep pitchers in Joey Oakie, Chase Mobley and Doughty. The latter received the highest bonus of the three as the supplemental first-round pick and has earned some encouraging praise from scouts early. The Guardians backed this up with an assignment to Low-A Lynchburg to begin 2025. While Doughty is not a stuff monster with an upper-90s fastball, he has a feel for a variety of shapes, an ability to spin the baseball at an elite rate and advanced pitchability. These characteristics could make him one of the breakout stars of the Carolina League early this season.

Braxton Ashcraft, RHP, Pirates
Entering his age-25 season in 2025, it’s been a slow burn for the 2018 second-rounder. Injuries derailed large swaths of Ashcraft’s early professional career, as his 2024 inning total of 73 is his highest in any single season. Ashcraft has a spot on the 40=man and Triple-A time in parts of two seasons. He wasn’t sharp in his debut with Indianapolis in 2025, but he showed excellent stuff. Ashcraft can both ride and sink his fastball, showing a four-seamer with above-average ride and a sinker with true sink and heavier armside run. His primary secondary is a nasty cut-slider in the low 90s with classic cutter shape, and he also blends in a low-80s curveball and an improved changeup showing better vertical separation off his fastball. If Ashcraft can stay healthy, he could be the next starter promoted to a young and talented Pirates rotation.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... et-4-7-25/

11. Brady House, 3B, Nationals

Team: Triple-A Rochester (International)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: .367/.424/.600 (11-for-30), 6 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 7 SO
The Scoop: After hitting a career-high 19 home runs in 2024, House has carried that success into 2025. The 21-year-old is riding a seven-game hitting streak in which he’s recorded four extra base-hits, including a 428-foot homer. House struggled with plate discipline last season, reflected by his 143 strikeouts to 31 walks between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out seven times last week, but showed he can adjust to higher-level pitching, a question that has loomed as he’s developed over the years. (JC)

15. Jaden Hamm, RHP, Tigers

Team: Double-A Erie (Eastern)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
The Scoop: It felt like Hamm was waiting for his first taste of Double-A for the final few months of 2024. It finally came on Saturday, as he dominated in his Double-A debut. Hamm tossed four scoreless innings allowing only three baserunners to reach. He needed 65 pitches and generated 12 swinging strikes. Hamm has pedestrian velocity but good ride in his fastball and an ability to command his arsenal. If he can add velocity in the coming years, he could emerge as a midrotation arm. More than likely, he settles in as a quality innings-eater at the back of a rotation. (GP)
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... g-weekend/

Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
One of the most touted prep pitchers in the 2024 draft class, Doughty made his highly-anticipated professional debut Friday at Fayetteville. Signed for just a shade under $2.6 million out of a commitment to Oklahoma State, he was a part of a trio of prep pitchers the Guardians targeted with some of their savings from the No. 1 overall selection of Travis Bazzana.

Doughty had an up-and-down debut, allowing five hits and two earned runs while walking none and striking out five. He threw nearly 75% strikes and was up to 94 mph on his fastball. Things started off very shaky, as he allowed the first three batters to reach before a wild pitch plated a run. Afterwards, Doughty seemed to lock in, striking out the next three batters to limit the damage. He ran into trouble again in the second inning, allowing a single followed by an RBI triple. He once again settled in and retired six of the next seven batters he faced, three via strikeout.

Doughty used just two pitches throughout the start, mixing his four-seam fastball and hard two-plane breaking curveball nearly one-to-one. Doughty’s fastball sat 91-92 mph and touched 94 at peak with above-average ride and moderate cut out of above-average extension and a higher release point. The pitch did generate a fair amount of whiffs, and he showed pinpoint control at points. Dating back to his prep days, Doughty’s ability to spin a breaking ball has been his bread and butter. This still looks to be the case, as his curveball sat 81-83 mph with over 10 inches of drop, 10 inches of sweep and average raw spin rates in the 2800-2900 rpm range. The pitch had a 36% chase rate and 33% whiff rate, both very good numbers when you consider the 48% usage rate of the pitch on the day.

Doughty is still very early in his professional development, but he shows key indicators that portend success. He commands his arsenal, has solid fastball shape and shows innate feel for spin. It’s too early to tell where this will end up, but he has multiple starter traits.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... epertoire/

Hurston Waldrep is somewhat a forgotten man in the Braves’ pitching mix.

Rookie righthander AJ Smith-Shawver and his dynamic stuff headlines a list of intriguing young pitchers in Atlanta, but Waldrep—the club’s 2023 first-round pick—has not received much buzz.

The former Florida Gators ace made two MLB starts a year ago, failing to make a strong impression. He was sidelined for a month with elbow inflammation before spending the rest of 2024 at Triple-A Gwinnett.

The 23-year-old Waldrep had a quiet spring, making only one appearance before the team optioned him to Triple-A. But those around him said Waldrep seemed far more comfortable than a year ago.

Notable was that he gained the natural confidence and reassurance that comes with having “been there.” He’s better adjusted to the pace of the pro game, which he admitted has been a learning process since leaving Florida.

That makes sense for a pitcher who reached the majors less than a year after pitching in the College World Series.

“From what I’ve heard from some of the catchers who had him, there’s just a calmness this spring,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “It’s not such a ‘What’s going on here?’ That’s why repetitions, innings—that’s what that’s about.”

The most notable development of Waldrep’s offseason: He’s throwing his curveball again after ditching it following the draft. He felt good about the pitch during the spring.

“Adding the curveball back gives me a little better tool to lefties,” Waldrep said. “It fits my fastball really well out of my arm slot and it just made sense to bring it back.”

The idea behind getting rid of the pitch initially was that the Braves wanted Waldrep to focus on his slider, which would play well off his splitter, the pitch for which he’s best known.

Waldrep opened the season in Gwinnett rotation, but he will see chances in the majors as a spot starter or even a reliever later in the year.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... s-in-2025/

Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
In a farm system that leans heavily on hitters, Doughty is one of Cleveland’s best pitching prospects and could make himself a more nationally known name by the end of the year.

The Guardians signed Doughty out of high school as a supplemental first-round pick (No. 36 overall) in 2024. The 19-year-old has recorded 10 strikeouts and walked only one of the 31 batters he’s faced through seven innings, showing starter traits with the stuff to pile up empty swings. A prolific strike-thrower, Doughty complements a low-to-mid 90s fastball with an outstanding curveball. His curve—a pitch he’s thrown more often than his fastball when facing righthanded hitters—has extremely tight rotation and sharp bite to continue as a high swing-and-miss offering as he moves up the ladder.

His changeup was behind the rest of his stuff in high school, but in his last start, he used it to get multiple whiffs, including a particularly good one with heavy tumble for an empty swing against White Sox outfielder Braden Montgomery, a 2024 first-round pick and current Top 100 prospect.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BP's MLU: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... unningham/

Hitter of the Weekend
Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals (Triple-A Rochester): 6-13, 2 HR, BB.
On the cusp of big-league opportunity, House’s frigid back half of 2024 in his first taste of Triple-A ensured September came and went without a call-up. Early in 2025, the young man is having a far easier time finding the outfield grass. The towering third baseman is flirting with a .300 average while having cracked half his homer total from a year ago in Rochester in one-third of the games.
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA's Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... t-4-21-25/

18. Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
Team: Double-A Binghamton (Eastern)
Age: 23
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 SO, 0 HR
The Scoop: Through three starts this season, McLean has allowed just one earned run while holding opposing hitters to a .173 average. He kept rolling this week with his best start of the season on Saturday: six scoreless innings with two hits, four walks and eight strikeouts. McLean’s command still comes and goes, but he boasts excellent stuff. He mixed three different breaking ball shapes in his start Saturday, showing a low-90s gyro slider, a mid-80s sweeper and a high-70s curveball with two-plane break. Though his fastball shape isn’t great, he boasts excellent velocity. McLean could position himself as the best of Mets’ pitching prospects within the next month. (GP)
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Re: Down on the Farm - 2025

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From BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... n-in-2025/

Asbel Gonzalez, OF, Royals
Over the opening weeks of the season, Gonzalez has been an excellent table setter for Low-A Columbia. He’s racked up hits and run wild on the bases so far, hitting .407/.514/.441 over 59 at bats with 16 runs and 22 stolen bases. He currently has nine walks to four strikeouts and shows excellent underlying skill metrics. Though Gonzalez lacks game power, exit velocity data shows some projection. He’s a heavy groundball hitter (49.1% in 2025) and looks to line drives to all fields.

Gonzalez’s contact and swing decisions grade out highly on team models. Combined with his speed and base running acumen, his profile puts him into a similar bucket as recent successful speedsters as the Rays’ Chandler Simpson and the Cardinals’ Victor Scott. Defensively, Gonzalez earned a 60 grade on his glove in his offseason report and has the speed and ability to handle center field long term.
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