All The Guardians Trades

[Guardians]

365. Nick Lodolo, Pete Crow-Armstrong to Miami for Taj Bradley, Xander Bogaerts

Nils warned me (warned meaning incessant bothering would be coming) me that he was going to try to get PCA back from me this offseason. As the season went on, I became more and more enthralled with his defense in center field and I really wasn't considering dealing him. Nils made an offer that was interesting, but not quite there for me. When Nils came back including Bradley, it got my attention. As stated before, acquiring young pitching has been one of my primary offseason goals and Bradley goes just that. He's only 23 and while he hasn't put up elite numbers, he has always had a very encouraging K/9 ratio and in 2024 he reduced walks, home runs and overall ERA. He is exactly what I wanted to get this offseason and he will slide in as my current #4 SP.

PCA is truly an amazing CF. The guy gets to everything and saves runs left and right. And while his 2024 offensive numbers were not amazing, his 2023 minor league numbers tell me he has the ability to be a force moving forward. If he can work on his swing this offseason, he can be very special. However, with Rafaela and Edman, again, I felt like I had the depth to make this move. Edman can man CF at a (hopefully) elite level for several seasons, giving Rafaela time to work on his own offensive issues until he's ready to take over full-time.

As for the rest of the deal, Lodolo was another guy Nils liked, and he filled the hole moving Bradley created. While I tried to get Albies in the deal somehow, Nils was adamant about keeping him. Bogaerts, to me, provides a solid 2B option and while he's not what he was in Boston, ZiPS gave him a 4-win projection in 2024. I don't expect that in 2025, but I'm hoping he turns in a 2.5 win projection. That will be enough to push him into a starting role and move Solano into a very solid pinch hitter.

I accomplished two goals with the deal -- young SP and a 2B upgrade, so I'm happy with it, as long as PCA doesn't turn into a star.

[Guardians]

366. Homer Bush Jr., Cleveland Draft Pick 4 to St. Louis for Kenley Jansen, Seattle Draft Pick 5

Improving my bullpen has been an offseason priority and while picking up 37-year-olds isn't typically my go-to move, Jansen proved over the last two years that he still has a little bit left in the tank. In fact, five of his last six seasons have been worth over a win per year and he is still maintaining over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. So, while ZiPS has downgraded him, he continues to overperform his projections. Should he find a home this offseason (LA?), he will slot in as a 7th/8th inning option along with Megill, Rogers, Holton, and Morejon.

Bush is a fun prospect who has great speed and an eye at the plate. He stole 57 bases in 2024 and had some power. At 23 in A+, he needs to start moving quickly, but when the Rays deal for a player, that's typically a good sign. He should be, at minimum, a 4th OF. The pick swap isn't a big impact.

[Guardians]

367. DJ Herz, Franklin Arias to Kansas City for Toronto Draft Pick 1, Brice Matthews, Chase Meidroth

This deal started with a conversation about the least valuable player in the deal -- Meidroth. In looking at some prospect stats last night, I saw that he had a strong 2024 in AAA at age 22/23, including walking 19 percent of the time vs. striking out 13 percent of the time. His power is moderate, but he also hits well and could be a potential 2B/3B option in a year. The scouting remains skeptical at his final defensive home, but most agree his eye at the plate and hit tool is special. So, I asked Larry about him.

We had toyed with the idea of a deal around the No. 11 pick earlier Sunday and it didn't go anywhere, but on Monday, things kicked up a notch. Larry expressed an interest in Herz, who was a key piece I got from Toronto in a deal earlier this year. He's a 23-year-old lefty SP who sported a 1.7 fwar season in only 88 innings. He had 11 strikeouts per 9 innings, so he was really strong. However, he has historically struggled with his command. I think there's a good chance he will get a useful projection, but he will need to figure out his command to truly be successful. That said, he's still only 23, so I valued him highly. While we had agreed that Arias, a helium SS prospect who was FCL MVP and snuck into the back end of top 100 lists, was similar in value to the pick, the rest of the deal needed to be worked out.

Meidroth isn't an anchor piece, but Matthews gets it closer. He's got a ton of tools, big power, and he strikes out a lot. There's a lot to like there, but he's also a little bit of an upside gamble. All in all, I'm banking on the pick being a fun player, depending on international signings, and a back end top 100 player similar to Arias. While losing Herz hurts, Meidroth and Matthews give me two really solid hitting prospects to continue building up my farm system.

[Guardians]

368. Seattle Draft Pick 5 to Kansas City for Hector Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a fun prospect and probably close in age to whoever goes at this point in our draft. He is a free swinger, yet somehow reduced his strikeout rate. He needs to walk a little more, but the speed/power combo is fun and he remains planted in CF.

[Guardians]

369. Kansas City Draft Pick 2 to Washington for Nick Pivetta

Ian and I talked about Pivetta last year, but we weren't able to really come up with the right pieces in our late-season deal. I reached out recently and asked again, just to see what he had in mind. He listed out several things and I offered the 2nd rounder and we had a deal.

Pivetta is 31 and has hit his stride the last few years. The last four years he has posted 1.5-2 win seasons while averaging around 150 innings. His strikeout rate sits over 10 per 9 innings and he actually dropped his walk rate by about 1 in 2024, which is encouraging. I wasn't targeting more starting pitching, but as we all know, pitchers get hurt and he looks like a solid middle rotation guy for me. It will be interesting to see where he signs this offseason and how that affects his projection, but based on the current media narrative, it seems he could get a payday and hopefully a strong projection. I like him as a No. 3 SP.

[BlueJays]

Guardians wrote:
> 369. Kansas City Draft Pick 1 to Washington for Nick Pivetta
>
> Ian and I talked about Pivetta last year, but we weren't able to really
> come up with the right pieces in our late-season deal. I reached out
> recently and asked again, just to see what he had in mind. He listed out
> several things and I offered the 2nd rounder and we had a deal.
>
> Pivetta is 31 and has hit his stride the last few years. The last four
> years he has posted 1.5-2 win seasons while averaging around 150 innings.
> His strikeout rate sits over 10 per 9 innings and he actually dropped his
> walk rate by about 1 in 2024, which is encouraging. I wasn't targeting more
> starting pitching, but as we all know, pitchers get hurt and he looks like
> a solid middle rotation guy for me. It will be interesting to see where he
> signs this offseason and how that affects his projection, but based on the
> current media narrative, it seems he could get a payday and hopefully a
> strong projection. I like him as a No. 3 SP.

Seems like it was for Draft Pick #2? Maybe you guys got it wrong in the system. I want to make sure you paid full value!

[Guardians]

Guardians wrote:
> 369. Kansas City Draft Pick 1 to Washington for Nick Pivetta
>
> Ian and I talked about Pivetta last year, but we weren't able to really
> come up with the right pieces in our late-season deal. I reached out
> recently and asked again, just to see what he had in mind. He listed out
> several things and I offered the 2nd rounder and we had a deal.
>
> Pivetta is 31 and has hit his stride the last few years. The last four
> years he has posted 1.5-2 win seasons while averaging around 150 innings.
> His strikeout rate sits over 10 per 9 innings and he actually dropped his
> walk rate by about 1 in 2024, which is encouraging. I wasn't targeting more
> starting pitching, but as we all know, pitchers get hurt and he looks like
> a solid middle rotation guy for me. It will be interesting to see where he
> signs this offseason and how that affects his projection, but based on the
> current media narrative, it seems he could get a payday and hopefully a
> strong projection. I like him as a No. 3 SP.

Seems like it was for Draft Pick #2? Maybe you guys got it wrong in the system. I want to make sure you paid full value!

Typo. Thanks for keeping me on my toes, Dave!

[Guardians]

370. Kenley Jansen, Lane Thomas, Gregory Soto to Tampa Bay for Camilo Doval, Yoan Moncada, Samy Natera Jr.

Matt and I were discussing something completely unrelated to IBC when I dove into some trade discussion, though I can't say I was super confident. I had tried before to pick up Gorman and Moncada for my bench, without success. Moncada hasn't been good since 2021(!), but he's still only 29, switch hits and plays a competent 3B. With all those qualities, I can see him sitting on my bench and possibly getting a little time at 3B in later innings, so that was my interest level. When Matt made it clear he still had hope in Gorman as a starter, I moved on from him and looked for some other possibilities.

He was interested in Thomas to play RF and I think he'll be fine there. His stats have been a bit up and down between power, speed, OBP over the last couple years, but if that evens out to 20 HR and 20 SB for a RF, that's 2+ wins and a solid player. For me, he's likely blocked as a starter, and I preferred someone who can play on the dirt. Thomas will definitely project better than Moncada, but I hope Moncada can provide some lefty power off the bench.

Jansen had a really nice 2024 and continues to strike out more than 10 per 9 innings. The obvious drawback is he's 37. I imagine he'll sign a 2-year deal this offseason (maybe with LAD?) and wrap up a solid career soon. Doval is 10 years his junior and while he went from pretty dominant in 2022 and 2023 to a big fan of walking guys in 2024, his FIP was still better than his ERA and he continues to strike out a lot of guys. The kid clearly has closer stuff and while he had a setback in 2024, I think he's still a back end option. We'll see how ZiPS treats him, but I think he'll end up being an upgrade in 2024 and obviously there are some future dividends there.

The last pieces were Soto and Natera. Soto also has back-end stuff and Matt was looking for RP depth. With a couple solid lefties in my bullpen already, Soto was looking like a depth piece. He can still run it up there, is only 29 and has an opportunity to be a late innings guy for Matt. Natera is intriguing. Already 25, he's old for his competition, but the scouting reports out of the AFL are promising and he seems to be turning heads. If he's unlocked something, maybe he moves fast. He was a 1B until 17-18 years old and really hasn't been pitching for long. Late-bloomer, but maybe he turns into something nice.

[Guardians]

371. Connor Wong, Trevor Megill, Robert Stephenson to Toronto for Bo Naylor, Yordanny Monegro, Cincinnati Draft Pick 3

As trades often do, this one came out of just a regular discussion. Dave said he was looking for righty RP and I came up with a concept around Stephenson and Wong for Naylor and Monegro. Dave wanted Megill, but I needed more, so we added the third rounder to bring back some value and wrapped it up.

From my perspective, I get a really nice complement to Logan O'Hoppe at catcher in Naylor. He's a defensive stud with some nice power and a hit tool that needs work. He's still only 25 and has no real competition in the system, so he has a few years to continue to develop. His FG defensive metrics are very strong, so I suspect he'll improve on his AV/AV ratings from last year. If ZiPS follows Steamer, he looks really nice. Wong's projection was a bit of a disappointment considering his offensive improvement, so this gets me younger and potentially better at catcher. Time will tell on the latter there.

But Dave picks up two really strong RP. Megill just got a 122 ERA+ projection and Stephenson got a 109 ERA+ coming off TJ and a top-notch previous season. Megill can close or set up and Stephenson, once fully healthy, turns into another back-end option. With a full season in Anaheim, I think he gets back to prominence as a set up guy. So, a couple nice bullpen pieces go to Toronto.

I really like Monegro. I think he's poised to be the next Sox rising pitching prospect after Perales last year. He's big and lanky, had a ridiculous 8-start 0-run stretch in the middle of last year in A+ and I think is ready for more. If he hits, it makes this deal really good. If he doesn't, we'll see. Obviously, pick #85 could be something or nothing, so whatever that turns into factors into the final review as well.

I like Dave improving his pen quite a bit here and grabbing a MLB catcher who's still only 28. I like improving my catching situation and farm. I will need to add some bullpen arms before April, but that should be doable.

[Guardians]

372. Justin Turner to Anaheim for Paul Sewald

Zach and I had a couple sporadic conversations this offseason around a similar concept and then things went kinda dark. As I was cleaning out my PM box, it reminded me that we had tossed out this scenario not too long ago and before Zach picked up a couple RP via trade. He is a Turner fan and had a need at 1B and I have plenty of righties off the bench and was in desperate need of a RP. The needs line up pretty well for us, so I proposed it as I was falling asleep and woke up to a trade being completed.

Turner is obviously old and probably only has 1 year left. But ZiPS still gives him credit for having a great eye and decent batting skills with diminishing power. If he hits .265/.340 with 15 HR in the #8 or 9 spot in a lineup, I think that's going to be Zach's best case scenario, which is still solid enough.

Sewald, now 34, saw his K rate drop off a tad and he was more hittable last year in Arizona, but ZiPS still gave him a 119 ERA+, which will fit nicely into my bullpen as a setup guy. He's now in Cleveland, who boasts 15 top-tier RP, so I have to think he's now going to be a 150 ERA+ reliever for the rest of his career. But in all seriousness, that seems like a favorable place for him to pitch this year and hopefully he can regain some stock. If he has a mid-3s ERA and regains some velocity, I'll be happy.

[Guardians]

373. Zack Littell to Kansas City for Michael Kennedy, Jefferson Rojas

This came together oddly when Larry mentioned in a random conversation that he would move Rojas. Rojas' popularity with scouts dipped a little from last year, but he still ranks in the top 100 at MLB.com. He's probably in the just missed section of the other lists. BA had him in the 50s last year. He's in that 45+-50 range by most experts, noted for his pitch recognition and quick swing, which should produce at least average power. His defense and arm rate as above average. For all those reasons, I was happy to pick him up, if it worked out.

Larry is interested in trying to improve a little for 2024, so Littell is a good piece for that. He's a solid #3-4 starter who doesn't have blow away stuff, but mixes well and has good control. He will eat innings with a sub-4 ERA.

Because of a little current uncertainty with Rojas compared to last year, I asked for Kennedy, whom I originally drafted. He's a young lefty who was dealt from Pittsburgh to Cleveland last year. Still only 20, he put up 10 K and 2 BB/9 innings over 18 games. He seems to be trending up.

Larry gets the now help and I have good SP depth, so I can build my farm a little and hope for some positive development this year.

[Guardians]

374. Ryan Lobus, Ty Johnson to Chicago (AL) for Chicago (AL) Draft Pick 2

In my research for pick No. 24, there were a handful of guys I had on my shortlist that I just couldn't get there. When I saw that Aaron had picks 36 and 38, I reached out to see what it would take to pry one away. After giving him a list of prospects to choose from, he made an offer that we tweaked slightly before landing on this one. The added bonus is the deal functions as a cut for draft purposes.

For Aaron, he gets Johnson, a big-bodied SP in the Rays system who came over from the Cubs in the Paredes deal. BP pegged him at 94 in their top 101 after he put up nearly 13 K/9BB with a sub-3 ERA and a 2.23 FIP. He got better with the Rays, but he also split his starts and relief appearances. There's some reliever risk here, but if he executes those numbers, it won't matter. Lobus was a pop-up guy I snagged in 2024 after he had a solid A+/AA season. He's a little more under the radar than Johnson, but both are probably a year away from knowing whether they will truly break out or not.

In return, the pick became Jurrangelo Cijntje, a first rounder out of Mississippi State. First off, he landed in Seattle, which has worked wonders for pitchers. Second, he features not only a solid right handed pitcher upside, but also throws with his left and could potentially use both in games. As long as his left-handed development doesn't hinder his right-handed development, I think this is a steal here. If he doesn't fully develop one or the other, he could end up a bust. But there's certainly intrigue here and I'm happy to add him in. Some scouts had him as a mid-first rounder pick. So, to get him in the early 2nd is a nice get.

[Guardians]

375. Aaron Nola, Yoan Moncada to Philadelphia for Jack Flaherty, Will Wagner

It always seemed inevitable that when Nick decided to rebuild and then started to compete that Nola would have to make his way back to Philadelphia. In fact, Nick and I had a few talks over the offseason once he started ramping up his efforts to get back above .500 that included Nola. Ultimately, those didn't work out. But I knew we'd come back around.

Nola is a fine pitcher who has shown ace stuff in the past, as recently as 2022. Coming up to his age 32 season, he's probably going to settle into a strong #2-3 role. ZiPS still loves him, putting him between 3.5-4 wins with a 9 K/9 ratio and sub-2 BB/9 ratio. He will be solid. But my goal this offseason has been to remain competitive and get a tad younger, so the idea of getting Flaherty was appealing. While our talks focused on my homer interest in Buehler, I still need to see him to believe he's going to be better than he was last year. I think he will be, but Flaherty seemed like the more stable pick, as he came alive in 2023 after a few shaky years in St. Louis due to injury. There's definitely risk involved, but if he can continue moving forward as he did in 2023, he's going to be a similar No. 2 SP. ZiPS has him with a 10.11 K/9 ratio and a sub-3 BB/9 ratio. Their ERAs are nearly identical.

The second part of the trade is what actually excites me. While Moncada fits nicely as a bench bat and a has a strong opportunity to take over Anaheim's starting 3B position, he does have a recent poor track record and injury history. Despite that, ZiPS still gave him a pretty favorable projection, so he was going to fit well as a backup 3B/PH. However, in comes Will Wagner. ZiPS gave him a starter's projection at .271/.350/.389 and he will likely float between 3B, 1B, and DH, and with his short and compact swing, I'm hopeful he can start to lift the ball a little more, which will turn doubles into homers. He doesn't strike out a lot and he walks a decent bit, so all signs point to him being a solid hitter who can play multiple positions. If all that falls into place, I have improved my bench and gotten younger in the rotation without losing much.