Orioles Prospect Report - January 2025

[Orioles]

From the MLB.com Pipeline article One potential breakout prospect for each organization in 2025:


Angels: Joswa Lugo, SS (No. 6)

Dawel Lugo’s younger brother signed with the Angels last January for $2.3 million and while you don’t want to put too much stock in a Dominican Summer League debut, the No. 37 prospect on our Top 50 international prospects list did post a robust .301/.370/.466 line with 19 extra-base hits and 18 steals. He’s a physical infielder who might not stick at short, but he has the power potential to profile well at third. The Angels don’t hesitate to push guys so it might be interesting to see if Lugo goes straight to full-season ball in 2025.


Cardinals: Yairo Padilla, SS (No. 29)

Padilla was a DSL All-Star this past summer with a .287/.391/.404 line and 22 steals in 35 games – numbers that all but ensure he’ll be stateside for his age-18 season in 2025. The $760,000 signing can switch hit and showed a solid approach from both sides, though he’s gotten much more experience from the left to this point. His above-average speed and plus arm strength are two more assets, but much will come down to how his power develops as a 6-foot infielder.


Reds: Alfredo Duno, C (No. 7)

Duno joined phenom Ethan Salas as catching prospects in the top five of the 2023 Top 50 international list and the Reds gave him $3.1 million to join the organization. After posting a .944 OPS hitting only in the DSL that summer (He had an elbow issue that kept him from catching.), he came to the U.S. in 2024 and skipped over the Arizona Complex League, holding his own in full-season ball. He has skills on both sides of the ball that point to a future as a big league regular and could jump into conversations of the best backstop prospects in the game.


Padres: Humberto Cruz, RHP (No. 5)

Signed for $750,000 out of Mexico at the start of last year, Cruz only pitched in two Arizona Complex League games as he got his feet wet in pro ball, but behind the scenes, he showed the makings of an advanced arm ready to leap up the San Diego ranks. His fastball averaged around 94 mph already, while his changeup and slider could be two other weapons with further refinement. Cruz’s athleticism helps him pump strikes, and that whole package will draw plenty of eyes in ‘25.

[Orioles]

From BA's 15 MLB Prospects Who Just Missed The 2025 Top 100:

Alfredo Duno, C, Reds

The Reds showed their confidence in Duno by skipping him over the Arizona Complex League and sending him to the Low-A Florida State League, where was the youngest player on an Opening Day roster. He performed well in 32 games before a broken rib landed him on the injured list for the rest of the season. He re-emerged in instructional league. At his best, Duno’s game is based around nearly double-plus power and the potential for average defense behind the plate. Injuries in each of the last two seasons have cost him plenty of reps, however, and the 2025 season will be crucial for his development.


From BA's Who Could Be Baseball America’s No. 1 Prospect In 2026?:

Leodalis De Vries, SS, Padres

Four teenage shortstops – Colt Emerson, Jesus Made, De Vries and Sebastian Walcott – are clustered in the Top 100. My bet is one of those four is No. 1 this time next year. You’ve heard the case for Walcott and Made already, but why not De Vries? Despite his age (17) and an early shoulder injury, he settled in admirably at Low-A Lake Elsinore. He showed flashes of advanced plate skills and solidly above-average future power projection with high-level athleticism. De Vries may not be quite the pure hitter as Emerson or have quite the same power ceiling as Walcott, but his mixture of tools might end up making him the most well-rounded shortstop of the bunch. He has already reached the lower minors and another optimistic showing in 2025 would send him further up the list.


From BA's 15 MLB Prospects Who Could Crack The 2026 Top 100:

Yairo Padilla, SS, Cardinals

Jesus Made leapt into the top tier of the 2025 Top 100 Prospects rankings even though he hasn’t made it to the U.S. for an official game yet. Padilla could follow in his footsteps. The Cardinals shortstop is a speedster with plus defense and a plus arm. He also has a rapidly improving bat that could make him a true five-tool star.

[Orioles]

From the BP Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects 2025:


3. Alfredo Duno

Pos: C/DH
Born: 2006-01-07
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 2″
W: 210 lbs.
History: Signed January 15th, 2023 out of Venezuela.
Previous Rank: #12 (org)
Major League ETA: 2028

The Report: The 18-year-old Duno received an aggressive full-season assignment in 2024 after crushing the ball the previous season in the DSL. He was DH-only then, as he was dealing with a shoulder injury, but did get back behind the plate regularly last year, at least until a broken rib ended his season in May. The scouting report is very simple. Duno is a massive human—for any age athlete, let alone a teenager—who makes a Louisville slugger look like a toothpick in his hands. He has a length-and-strength power game, but with more bat control than I expected. It’s not an athletic, twitchy swing, but he has freakish power, and balls that look like they should be routine flyouts just…keep…going. Duno was overmatched by better velocity and offspeed in the Florida State League, and the better pitchers and pitches in the league could beat him in the zone. You’d expect that would improve some with experience, and his swing decisions were downright precocious despite facing much older pitching. Duno is aggressive in the zone—and his contact, when he makes it, is hard and in the air—and he doesn’t chase. So if he can make even a below-average amount of in-zone contact, the power upside is as good as any catcher in the majors. Now, is he a catcher? Despite the XL frame, he’s not a butcher behind the plate, although he spent the year in an ABS league, so there’s more limited framing data. He throws well enough. However, a big part of catching is just being able to don the tools of ignorance 110 times a year, and durability has already been a big issue for Duno in the pros. He also just turned 19 a week ago, so time is on his side there.

OFP: 55 / Above-average catcher
Variance: Very High. Duno has barely caught in the pros due to a shoulder injury and then a broken rib. The bat looks like it can survive a move off catcher, but a lot of the high-end outcomes here are tied up in him staying behind the plate. —Jeffrey Paternostro


4. Sal Stewart

Pos: 2B/3B
Born: 2003-12-07
B: Right
T: Right
H: 6′ 1″
W: 215 lbs.
History: Drafted 32nd overall in the 2022 draft, Westminster Christian School (Miami, FL); signed for $2.1 million.
Previous Rank: #9 (org)
Major League ETA: Late 2026/Early 2027

The Report: Robbed of the last month and a half of the 2024 season by a wrist injury, Stewart still showed enough at Dayton to remind us that he remains one of the best pure bats in the organization. Stewart followed up on his impressive 2023 season by running elite contact rates as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League and showing some marginal gains in terms of power. Patient but not passive at the plate, Stewart commands the zone and knows how to get himself into advantageous counts. It is still a swing geared for hard line drives to all fields but the plus raw pop began to show up more in-game last season with Stewart lifting the ball with more frequency. Concerns about his athleticism post-draft made a move to the cold corner a possibility, which would leave him a difficult path to the majors. However, some improved physicality coming into this season allowed the glove to be at least passable at both second and third, pausing positional concerns for the time being With just the bat projecting as above average, it’s a tough profile. However, continued power gains could turn Stewart into a 55 hit/50 power type player, and make him a fixture in the Cincinnati lineup.

OFP: 55 / First-division infielder
Variance: Medium. There’s still some untapped power in the profile for Stewart, but he will need to continue to run high contact rates as he progresses into the upper minors. —Nathan Graham


5. Cam Collier

Pos: 3B
Born: 2004-11-20
B: Left
T: Right
H: 6′ 1″
W: 210 lbs.
History: Drafted 18th overall in the 2022 draft, Chipola College; signed for $5 million.
Previous Rank: #7 (org)
Major League ETA: Late 2026

The Report: One of the youngest players to hit the diamond in the Midwest League last year, Collier held his own against older, more experienced, High-A pitching. He was especially good late, posting a 1.157 OPS and slugging six home runs throughout the month of August. Despite the solid showing, the offensive red flags that reared their head the prior in the FSL were not fully dispelled—notably his pitch recognition and propensity to hit the ball on the ground. The bat-to-ball skills are adequate, which helped to keep his strikeout rate at an acceptable level, but his pitch identification is lacking. Too often, left-handed pitching can get him to go chasing breakers out of the zone, resulting in weak contact. Collier does possess plus raw pop, generated by his above-average bat speed and physical frame but it is not yet fully maximized, held back by his swing decisions. In the field, Collier has spent his brief professional career exclusively at the hot corner. While his arm is more than enough for the left side of the diamond, his lack of lateral quickness makes a move to first base probable. That’s going to put a ton of pressure on the power to fully show up. If it does, Collier’s left-handed stroke is going to be an excellent match for the short right field porch at Great American Ballpark.

OFP: 55 / Slugging corner infielder
Variance: High. The offensive improvements are encouraging, especially given his age relative to his level but if they don’t follow him into the upper minors this profile could fall apart quickly. —Nathan Graham