Keith Law Top 100

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Keith Law Top 100

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7. Rafael Devers, 3B
Age: 19 (10/24/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: Class A | 2015: 55

Devers didn't come into 2015 with the hype of eventual teammate Yoan Moncada -- both played for a loaded Class A Greenville Drive infield that also featured Javier Guerra, now in the Padres organization -- but Devers established himself as Boston's top prospect with an impressive all-around performance that showed he has the acumen to match his prodigious tools. He has huge power, with electric hands and a rotational, balanced swing that allows him to drive off his back leg. For such a big guy, he has remarkable plate coverage, rarely striking out -- he was vulnerable just to hard stuff up and in when I saw him -- so while his walk rates appear low, he was far from overmatched for an 18-year-old in full-season ball, with only 42 games of stateside experience coming into the season.

The knock on Devers has been his defense at third, but I see no reason he can't stay at the position and even play it well. Devers is large for the hot corner, but that's the only cause for any doubt; he has great hands, a 70-grade arm and is quite agile for a big man. The bat would profile at first base, of course, with the power and contact upside there, but the potential for above-average defense at third on top of 30-35 homers and a high batting average (even if it's without a high OBP) is what makes him a top-10 prospect.


34. Javier Guerra, SS
Age: 20 (9/25/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 155
Top level: Class A | 2015: NR

Guerra went with Manuel Margot and two others to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel swap coming off a huge year for Greenville that saw him play outstanding defense and hit a rather unexpected passel of home runs.

Guerra is a plus defender at shortstop already, with soft hands, easy actions and plenty of arm for the position. The Panamanian has plus bat speed that generates raw power; he finished fourth in the Sally League in home runs even though he was one of the league's youngest regulars. His approach improved the more he played -- he cut his strikeout rate from 29 percent in the first half to 19 percent in the second. However, he's too aggressive to be a high-walk guy right now. Even if his OBPs stay low, he has enormous upside as a 20-homer shortstop who plays plus defense, and at 19, he's young enough to become a more patient hitter and develop into a possible cleanup hitter who competes for MVP awards.


44. A.J. Reed, 1B

Age: 22 (5/10/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4| Weight: 240
Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR

Reed won the Golden Spikes Award in the spring of 2014 for his play at the University of Kentucky, but he slid to the second round in that summer's draft due to concerns about his lack of any position but first base and his ability to hit better fastballs. He ended up as my prospect of the year for 2015, dominating high-A and Double-A in his first full pro season and laying claim to first base in Houston for the foreseeable future.

Reed has outstanding power and moves well for a big guy, finding success as a pitcher for Kentucky as well as at first base, with a sound approach at the plate. The 34 homers he hit and even the high walk total aren't a huge surprise. The knock on Reed coming out of Kentucky -- one I shared, by the way -- was that his bat speed wasn't great, maybe not even quite average, although I heard varying opinions on that this year. (I last saw Reed in the Arizona Fall League, where he was so tired he might as well have been swinging a bat made of lead.) His eye at the plate and his decision-making are both so good, however, that even if he gets a pitch he can't turn on, he can still shoot it the other way for a hit -- at least often enough that guys throwing gas in the Texas League didn't carve him up the way we might have expected them to a year ago. He is still clearly limited to first and isn't a plus defender there like Dom Smith, so he's going to have to continue to get on base and hit for power. Even if he's just a .260 hitter with a slew of walks and 25-30 homers, however, he'll look like Jimmie Foxx given what the Astros have run out there at first lately.


56. Josh Bell, 1B
Age: 23 (8/14/92) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 235
Top level: Triple-A | 2015: 60

Bell looks as if he should hit for a lot of power, and it's possible that he has lost some of his luster because his output hasn't matched his body type, but he has been ridiculously productive and shown such an advanced feel for the strike zone that it's hard to accept such criticism of his offense. Bell is a natural hitter, with superlative hand-eye coordination and a disciplined approach in which he will still go after the first pitch he can barrel up, even if it's just hard contact the other way. The Pirates have worked to try to get his back side more involved so he can get more leverage into his swing and allow him to hit for more power, but the remainder of his approach, physical and mental, are sound.

Where Bell does truly struggle is on defense, where he played first base as if he were fighting some sort of private war, even backing up through the bag on routine throws from the shortstop. It's a position that can be learned, but Bell will be fortunate to get to average from where his footwork and receiving are now.

There's at least 20-homer power in here, but even at 10-12 homers per season with .375 OBPs, he can be a solid-average regular as long as he can learn the position.


95. Alex Jackson, OF
Age: 20 (12/25/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 215
Top level: Class A | 2015: 59

Jackson was supposed to be a very advanced bat with power and feel to hit when Seattle made him the sixth overall pick in 2014, but a rough transition to the outfield at first and trouble making contact when he got to the Midwest League have caused some revising of the scouting reports. He did perform, somewhat, after a demotion in May from the full-season Midwest League to the short-season Northwest League -- the team said it was due to a sore shoulder -- but he was overmatched by low-A pitching, and still punched out in more than 30 percent of his at-bats in Everett. His swing is clean with good rotation for power, but he can lead too much with his elbow, locking his front side and becoming too pull-oriented, producing a lot of ground balls to the shortstop instead of big flies.

He has become an average or better right fielder with a plus arm, and there's clearly 25-30 homer power in there, but he has to be project No. 1 for the new player development staff in Seattle. If they can't fix his physical approach, he has huge bust potential.


98. Nick Gordon, SS
Age: 20 (10/24/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: Class A | 2015: 43

Gordon struggled badly in the first half of his first full pro season as one of the youngest regulars in the Midwest League as he adjusted not only to pro pitching but to playing in the cold weather for the first time. Gordon did adjust over the course of the season, hitting .302/.347/.416 in the second half with an improved contact rate. He's still not as disciplined as he should be for someone who profiles more as a contact/on-base guy than a power bat (he hit the ball on the ground more than two-thirds of the time he put it in play). He showed mostly average run times, occasionally above but just as often below when grounding out. And defensively, he has good hands and a plus arm, meaning he's very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there.

A year ago, he seemed like such a polished bat that he had some All-Star potential, but now it looks more as if he'll be a solid-average to slightly above-average regular, with good probability of becoming a big leaguer, but lacking that star upside.
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Post by Rockies »

You have to be an insider for Keith Law's shit list? Lol..
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Post by Phillies »

I think I might be the only person in this league that likes Keith Law.
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Post by Cardinals »

Phillies wrote:I think I might be the only person in this league that likes Keith Law.
no I do too
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
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Post by BlueJays »

He has Alex Verdugo on his list, can't be that bad.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
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Post by Rockies »

He might be the worst in the business...
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Post by Phillies »

Not worse than Sickels. Pretty sure he just reads other peoples shit, looks at stats, and comes up with a ranking.
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Post by Rockies »

Phillies wrote:Not worse than Sickels. Pretty sure he just reads other peoples shit, looks at stats, and comes up with a ranking.
Pretty sure Law just pulls it out his ass.
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Post by Yankees »

Rockies wrote:
Phillies wrote:Not worse than Sickels. Pretty sure he just reads other peoples shit, looks at stats, and comes up with a ranking.
Pretty sure Law just pulls it out his ass.
And he's still better than Sickels.
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Post by Giants »

I met Keith Law once at the Fall League, he's like 4 foot 2, which seems to explain a lot about his online persona
Your REIGNING AND DEFENDING #evenyear IBC CHAMPION

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Nationals wrote:
Rockies wrote:
Phillies wrote:Not worse than Sickels. Pretty sure he just reads other peoples shit, looks at stats, and comes up with a ranking.
Pretty sure Law just pulls it out his ass.
And he's still better than Sickels.
In your dreams... I'm not even saying Sickels is good..

Law is a turd, and you can polish him up all you want, but at the end of the day he's still a turd.
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Post by Athletics »

Way to take a prospect list and turn it into a convo of which writers we dislike the most...isn't there another thread for this viewtopic.php?t=5896&highlight=
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Post by Guardians »

Angels wrote:Way to take a prospect list and turn it into a convo of which writers we dislike the most...isn't there another thread for this viewtopic.php?t=5896&highlight=
Bingo
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Post by Giants »

If we're talking about writers we don't like I have to say that I despise Lena Dunham. This is the thread for that right?
Your REIGNING AND DEFENDING #evenyear IBC CHAMPION

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Post by Astros »

I've hated Keith Law since 2006, when he spent every World Series article trashing the Cardinals
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