Herrera: Best Rule-5 Pick Ever?

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Herrera: Best Rule-5 Pick Ever?

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Odubel Herrera Ranks Among Best Rule-5 Picks Ever


by Bill Baer on September 9, 2015

Odubel Herrera keeps on truckin’. The Phillies’ center fielder went 2-for-3 with a walk and a three-run home run, putting Tuesday night’s game against the Atlanta Braves out of reach at 5-0. Herrera bolstered his triple-slash line to .302/.340/.434 and crossed the 3-WAR threshold on the season, according to both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America did the research earlier this year and found that Rule 5 picks, since the eligibility rules were altered in 2006, have about a 1-in-4 chance of remaining with their new team. The Phillies had two Rule 5 picks this past winter, selecting Herrera and lefty pitcher Andy Oliver, who opted for free agency after refusing an assignment to Triple-A. 50 percent still ain’t too shabby for the Phillies.

There aren’t a whole lot of memorable Rule 5 picks. Most of them are either offered back to their original team, or struggle while remaining on the 25-man roster and break out later. Shane Victorino, often cited as a Rule 5 success (because he was), took only 19 plate appearances for the Phillies in 2005. He broke out as an average-value outfielder the next year and continued on an upward trajectory. Johan Santana was taken by the then-Florida Marlins in the Rule 5 draft ahead of the 2000 season, then was traded to the Minnesota Twins, but posted a 6.49 ERA over 86 innings.

There are only two Rule 5 picks that stuck out prior to Herrera: Dan Uggla and Josh Hamilton.

Player Year B-R WAR FG WAR
Herrera 2015 3.0 3.0
Hamilton 2007 2.5 2.3
Uggla 2006 3.0 4.2
Soria 2007 2.4 2.1
Victorino 2005 0.2 0.1

Uggla made the NL All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting in 2006 after hitting .282/.339/.480 with 27 home runs in 683 plate appearances for the Marlins, who took him in the Rule 5 draft from the Arizona Diamondbacks. B-R credited him with three Wins Above Replacement. FanGraphs was much kinder to his defense, resulting in 4.2 WAR.

Hamilton was selected by the Chicago Cubs from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the Rule 5 draft before the 2001 season. That same day, the Cubs sent him to the Cincinnati Reds in a cash transaction. Hamilton finished with 2.5 WAR, batting .292/.368/.554 with 19 home runs in 337 plate appearances.

Reliever Joakim Soria deserves a mention as well, as he saved 17 games while compiling a 2.48 ERA and a 75/19 K/BB ratio in 69 innings for the Kansas City Royals in 2007. The Royals selected him from the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 draft.

Herrera doesn’t stack up as well as Uggla and Hamilton offensively, but he’s been an asset on the bases despite a 67 percent stolen base success rate in 21 attempts, and he’s played well above-average defense in center field. Herrera’s .337 weighted on-base average is 24 points higher than the National League average and 14 points higher than the average for NL outfielders specifically. As noted recently, Herrera easily rates as the Phillies’ best position player this season.

A lot of the talk about the Phillies’ talent acquisition has focused on trades, as the Cole Hamels trade in particular made the most headway in the Phillies’ rebuilding process. But Herrera could very well become one of the most important players for the Phillies going forward. All he has to do is do it again next season.
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I imagine Ruben Amaro reading this article, patting himself on the back, and saying "It's true, a blind squirrel is indeed right twice a day!"
Your REIGNING AND DEFENDING #evenyear IBC CHAMPION

2015- #torture #evenyears 179-145
2006-2014 Gritty Gutty A's 828-631
2005 Texas Rangers 65-97
Total: 1072-873 .551
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No Johan Santana?
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Giants wrote:I imagine Ruben Amaro reading this article, patting himself on the back, and saying "It's true, a blind squirrel is indeed right twice a day!"
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Giants wrote:I imagine Ruben Amaro reading this article, patting himself on the back, and saying "It's true, a blind squirrel is indeed right twice a day!"
Haha
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Giants wrote:I imagine Ruben Amaro reading this article, patting himself on the back, and saying "It's true, a blind squirrel is indeed right twice a day!"
On feeling the broken clock or smelling the rancid nut?
"My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck."

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