All The Guardians Trades

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141. Sonny Gray, Matt Duffy, Andrew Suarez, Cole Tucker to San Francisco for Jake Arrieta, Michael Brantley, Hector Rondon

I approached Jake about six weeks ago about Arrieta, but at that point, he wasn't interested in dealing him. We talked about other players, but ultimately agreed to step back. Last week, with him now more than 10 games out of first place and his team obviously realizing it's an odd year, things progressed fairly quickly.
I figured the only way I would be able to snag a sim ace from him would be to start with Sonny Gray. I got Gray in the offseason from New York by dealing away Rich Hill, with whom I worried about the blister thing. He's actually done better than I expected, but he's also 37. Gray is 10 years younger and while his 2016 was horrible, I had faith he could turn it around. And he has. His 1.9 fwar puts him in the top 35 among starters with a strong k/bb ratio and peripherals. It may have been a little easier if he didn't have the lowest ERA among healthy starters on my team. That said, I think he had to be involved.
Duffy is a guy Jake has liked since his Giants days and since I've acquired him last year in a very bad trade with Boston, I haven't even been able to use him. I like him, too, if he actually wears a jersey. He was easy to move. We were then talking about Pillar, who is also performing well, but then Jake turned to prospects and asked for two of Suarez, Tucker and Armenteros. Suarez was easy to move since he's likely a 4/5 lefty starter with four pitches but none dominant and a Giant farmhand. Tucker/Armenteros was the tough part.
I drafted Tucker, traded him to Oakland and since got him back. He's a tall, lean shortstop with a good hit tool, good eye, good defense, top-notch stealing ability and scouts believe he'll grow into 12-15 HR power in the majors. All together, if it materializes, that's probably a 3 win shortstop. He would have been safer to keep. But the combination of having Seager and the allure of Lazarito's tools led to that decision.
On the other end are a lot of guys who help me this year if they stay healthy. It starts with Arrieta, who sports a 3.02 ERA projection, nearly a full run lower than Gray. His 4.4 WAR puts him 11th among starters and his 130 ERA+ puts him fifth. He is an ace and with him and Sale, I have more confidence in my playoff chances. If Thor sees a mound this year, I feel extremely confident. This year, he hasn't been great. He's sitting somewhere in the neighborhood of Taijuan Walker and Matt Garza in value, but I'm hopeful he will be an above-average #3 starter next year.
Brantley is a guy I've chased not overly aggressively from Jake for a while. He's an injury machine, but when healthy (this year), he can shine. He was an All-Star and is hitting close to .300 with a touch of power and a surprising 11/1 sb/cs ratio. He can hit at the top of anyone's lineup.
The third piece was Rondon, former Cubs closer with a big K/9 ratio and a 2.97 ERA/132 ERA+ projection. He will fit nicely as another late innings option.
All in all, I think Jake got what he wanted -- to get younger, better for next year, an infield presence and a couple low-risk prospects. And I got what I wanted -- help for this year. If Arrieta, Rondon and Brantley stay healthy the rest of the year, I'll likely call this a win. But there's plenty of young upside for Jake, too. Odds are this meets both our needs in the end.
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142. Foster Griffin to Los Angeles (NL) for Andrew Chafin

This was a simple trade to fill my desire to add a lefty reliever to the mix. With Miller moving into the closer's role, Cecil was my only lefty and I wanted to have another option, if needed. Chafin, a former IBC Tiger, will fill that role well. Chafin projects to a 3.60 ERA and 116 ERA+ over 65 innings with a very nice 66 percent GB rate. In real life, he's pared down the walks, sitting just above 3 per 9 innings compared to his 11.4 k/9 ip. He's got a 2.38 ERA, so I expect continued value next year.

In return, Shawn picks up a very good lefty starting pitcher in Foster Griffin, who has put his poor 2016 behind him, working his way into the Futures Game. Over two levels, he's posted very good K/BB ratios, isn't giving up home runs and has kept his ERA under 3 on the year. He looks to have a future as a back-end starter who can eat innings and produce solid results. Shawn gets a little more potential and I pick up a helpful relief option who will help this year.
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143. Hector Rondon, Drew Storen, to Minnesota for Hanley Ramirez, Will Craig

It's not often that inter-division trades can be made in a matter of minutes, but this was one of those situations. With a surplus of relief pitching (until today), I wanted to move at least Storen, a guy who was covering mopup duty. Rondon is a guy I just acquired from San Fran and while he's got a great projection, I didn't have time to love him yet. I gave Jason the option of he or Herrera and he liked Rondon, which was ok with me.
In return, I mentioned Hanley not for his defensive prowess, but for his ability to hit for some power (VG/VG) with a good average (.280). I think I also stole a starter from Jason in the process, so I was good with that. But since he's getting up there and hasn't been great in real life, I wanted a toss-in. I asked for Craig. He's a slugging 3B with a great eye and some defensive question marks. I'm hopeful he can stick at 3B. If not, he should be able to hit anywhere.
Jason thought for a few minutes and agreed. This is a rare occurrence. But I think it helps solidify his bullpen while giving me some additional depth.
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144. Albert Almora, Jordan Sheffield, Alfredo Rodriguez to Cincinnati for Lourdes Gurriel, Kyle Funkhouser and Bobby 16-Dalbec.

Ken and I kicked around an Almora/Gurriel based deal a month or so ago. The basis was sound -- both are about the same age. Almora in the majors, Gurriel in AA but still had the prospect glow. Ken valued Gurriel more and I was somewhat indifferent and it didn't go anywhere. I had heard Ken was shopping Gurriel around in the last couple weeks and he messaged me over the weekend to revisit. Not wanting to include Dakota Hudson and Funkhouser as first discussed, we had to go in a different direction.
He sought Funkhouser, Holder for Sheffield, Rodriguez and Holder doesn't do much for me and violates my no-Yankees rule. Dalbec, however, fits my pro-Red Sox rule.
You never know how prospect deals will work, but unless one of these guys turns into a stud, this may end up being a low-impact deal.
Ken picks up Almora, who's having a fine season as a part-time starting CF in Chicago. He is continuing his profile of low strikeouts, decent walks, some power, though FG doesn't love the defense. Sheffield is a 2016 draftee who's a year older than his brother and throws with the other arm. High Ks, high BB, though he did throw a nice game the night before the trade. Rodriguez is a Reds SS signed for big money out of Cuba. Thus far, he's all defense, but if he develops a bat, he could be a starter.
On my side, Gurriel is younger than his brother, who's having mild success. Also a Cuban signee from last year, ZiPS went a little too high on him, which I don't mind. He'll be more useful the rest of the year than Almora. Looks like Toronto is grooming him to be a Zobrist type. He's played SS, 2B and OF in the minors.
Funkhouser was rolling before an elbow injury in June. No diagnosis/surgery that I can find, but he was getting top 100 buzz pre-injury. He's a tad older than Sheffield, but Sheffield has his own injury history.
Dalbec was under consideration for one of my first round picks so I could get a 3B. Ultimately, I took Lowe over he and Nolan Jones. He's struggled this year compared to last, but I still like the power potential. We'll see how he develops, but the Sox tend to do ok with hitters. Plus, I need a 3B more than SS since Lowe has shifted to CF.
I think Ken gets a little more stability, a Red and a non-injured pitcher. I get a better bench player for this year, a Sox and a pitcher who hopefully doesn't have a knife in his short-term future.
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145. Alvaro Seijas, Luis Curbelo to Seattle for Matt Wieters

This was a trade I attempted to make a couple weeks back when Sal Perez hit the DL. Jason Castro has held down the fort in the meantime, but Wieters gives me some nice depth at catcher, always a thin position. He or Castro will backup Perez upon his return this week. Wieters has always been that guy who should have been great but never quite got there. A very good player, just never met the colossal expectations.
In return, I sent Brennan two young players -- Seijas a small starting pitcher in the Cardinals' system who has had some early success and Curbelo, an infielder in the White Sox system. Curbelo is a guy I snagged late in last year's draft on a whim after catching a nice scouting report. Good size for a power-hitting 3B, but he had meniscus surgery and will be out until instructs. I think both are solid gambles for a 31-year-old catcher who seems to have lost a once shining star.
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"...I think both are solid gambles for a 31-year-old catcher who seems to have lost a once shining star."

Gillespie sits back in his seat, pulls a cigarette out, lights it, and takes a long drag. The lights of the Scottish Inn across the street flutter just past his computer screen. While the challenges of the IBC trade review life are real, the moments of pure genius, like that line, are what make it worth it for the bespectacled roto maverick. With the non-cigarette hand he grabs the bottle of $11 scotch nestled up next to the computer and walks to the balcony of his apartment. He sets the cigarette out on the dampened black balcony rail and takes a long sip from the bottle, comfortable that the 28 other people in his fantasy baseball league, and Gabe, will awaken to his brilliance.
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146. Reese McGuire, Dakota Hudson, Kyle Funkhouser to Kansas City for Kole Calhoun, Dodgers Draft Pick 3

First deal of the offseason and first IBC deal of 2018. This deal was discussed with Ian in anticipation of dealing Giancarlo Stanton, which may still happen this offseason. If it doesn't, I'm comfortable starting Calhoun in left field with some type of av/vg projection. Even though he's strictly a RF at this point, I think he'll do fine in LF, if needed. I've liked Calhoun for a while. I think he's one of those steady but not spectacular regulars who should have around a .335 OBP with 20 HR, a few steals and a lefty bat. He's most likely a #7/8 hitter for me who will provide some down lineup production.
Ian drove a pretty hard bargain, at first wanting a prospect and a first round pick, which I wasn't willing to do. We kicked around a few prospects until we landed on the pieces here. I honestly think this will be another that in a few years will look good for Ian. I think both Hudson and Funkhouser have #3 potential. Funkhouser had some sort of injury last year after starting off hot. Hudson moved fast, though his peripherals aren't great. I think he still will be a starter rather than a reliever and I believe in St. Louis' ability to develop pitchers. McGuire is a nice kicker here as he has a great glove and good overall defense that will make him a MLB player. His bat came alive a little bit after several seasons of nothing, which gives some hope. If he can hit a little, he'll be a starter. If he can't hit, he'll be a strong backup. Ian did add in #73 overall, which should help me net a decent guy in about a month.
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147. Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew Chafin to Washington for Mookie Betts, Washington Draft Pick 3

After being publicly shamed by Jag for my lack of offseason trades, I had to come back big and restore my great trading name. Actually, this premise was something Z and I kicked around soon after Stanton was traded -- it makes too much sense for us not to pursue. Some might question my desire to trade such an offensive force and perhaps rightfully so. But it's very difficult to root for a player on a team I despise so much. Now, I don't have to cringe when I see Stanton take a high fastball to the arm and wonder how many months he'll miss.
I talked with up to seven teams about Stanton and got one strong offer, but ultimately I think IBC teams right now are afraid to take risks and perhaps were unsettled about dealing for such a hyped player with a big projection. It doesn't make sense, but he does carry injury risk and this will be his first time playing under pressure. Though, in that lineup, I'm not sure how much pressure there will be. I had almost resigned to just keeping him and riding out those huge power numbers when Z and I chatted briefly at the end of the weekend and over the weekend. It moved quickly from there.
No doubt, taking a 55-home run projection out of the lineup is terrifying -- I think we are both nervous about this one -- but there are a couple reasons I like it.
For one, I'm getting a little younger. It's not that Stanton is old, but Mookie is perhaps one of the top 3-4 young players in the game, which is exciting. In a down year last year, he still produced a 6.4 WAR season based on his excellent defense, speed and power combination. The deal was made easier since he's the Red Sox' franchise player.
Second, I can (I think) afford the power loss. With Altuve, Seager, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Perez, Turner and Calhoun in this lineup, I shouldn't have any trouble scoring. Adding another top-of-the-lineup bat just means Corey Seager bats 5th instead of 6th. I still have a deep lineup and now I have more speed and better defense.
Obviously, Stanton is a beast of a man and player. Being in New York, he should absolutely thrive and ZiPS is treating him as such. Z gets a huge bat for his lineup and doesn't sacrifice a ton of defense, as Stanton likely stays AV/VG in RF, despite his DH primary position projection. Chafin, who is lost in all this, is a guy I've liked and traded off once just to regret and get back. He's a solid lefty reliever, but he's not a deal-killer. Picking up a mid-3rd round pick is probably only a round less than I'd want for him if I were dealing him straight up, so that evened out the deal. Majestic power for all-around talent -- we'll see how this one works out.
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148. Michael Brantley, Detroit Draft Pick 2 to Colorado for Chris Paddack, Joe Rizzo, Colorado Draft Pick 2

Nate checked in on Stanton, but I wasn't willing to load up on a bunch of prospects for him. But in the conversation, I offered up Brantley as a low-risk, high-reward option. At only 30, he's still a great leadoff option -- when healthy. That's obviously the risk here. He's a former All-Star with a 6-win season under his belt, but the dude can't stay on the field for a full season. But it appears Cleveland is holding the position for him. Knowing all that, I knew Nate would only be willing to give up his secondary prospects. Having depth at outfield, I was OK taking on some prospects to bolster the farm.

My initial offer had me tossing back my third round pick in a deal for Nate's second, but he didn't want to fall back that far. I found that reasonable, but I also wasn't willing to take on a prospect coming off TJ just for Brantley. I tossed out a couple offers and Nate chose to give up Rizzo.

Rizzo was heralded as one of the best prep hitters in the 2016 class. As a stocky left hander, Rizzo showed a good eye and solid plate discipline in A ball as a 19-year-old last year. As he matures, scouts expect him to add power. Paddack is a fun gamble. He missed all of 2017 recovering from surgery. Pre-surgery, he had video game numbers in A ball for the Padres and Mariners (He was dealt for Fernando Rodney in 2016), striking out 14-15 k/9 and walking only 1 per 9 innings. He was a top 10 prospect previously, so there's upside here. The pick upgrade should get me a nice prospect in the early second round, which is a nice perk to the deal. I think Nate picks up a nice table setter without major risk. I pick up prospects for a guy I wasn't likely to use much. Hopefully a win for both teams.
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149. Chris Paddack, Detroit Draft Pick 3 to Kansas City for New York Draft Pick 2

This was a small trade, but hopefully will net a solid prospect. When I acquired Paddack, Ian mentioned interest. While I love Paddack's upside based on the small sample size of performance in 2016, there's a lot of risk here. He missed most of two seasons and is recovering from surgery. He may hit high 90s again and shoot back up the prospect rankings, but I was willing to roll the dice on using him to move up 24 spots in the draft. I hope there's a nice second round talent available at that pick.
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150. Tigers Draft Pick 3 to Miami for Matt Moore
151. Tanner Roark, Tobias Myers to Minnesota for Justin Wilson, Shane Bieber

These were separate deals, but were linked to me. I was surprised to see Oakland dump Moore for only a 4th round pick, though I do think he'll struggle moving from SF to Texas. I haven't seen a projection, but I imagine it's going to be fine as a #6 starter, which is what Roark was for me. Roark will project better, but the hope is to not need either. For Nils, he just moved up 20 spots in the draft for free. Win for him.

The latter trade was a starting point for Jason and I a couple weeks back that never got started. My idea in this one was that Roark is surplus pitching, but a good one. For a guy no one ever heard of before he got to the majors, he's had a very good MLB career. I picked him up 4 years ago when he finished the season with 12 scoreless innings for the Nats and there was talk he could crack the rotation. Since then, he's amassed 10 fWAR over those roughly 3.5 seasons. All the years he's been a full starter he's ranged from 2.4-3.2 fWAR. He's not sexy, but he gets it done.

Justin Wilson has been consistently very good as a lefty late-innings reliever/closer and now he's with the Cubs, where everything turns to gold. He replaces Andrew Chafin as lefty #2 in the pen behind Cecil and should be a nice projection. Bieber burst onto the scene as a righty moving from A to AA walking 10 batters (10!) over 170 innings. His fastball has bumped from low to mid 90s and he now projects as a #3 starter and top 5 Indians prospect. Tobias Myers is a 19-year-old righty SP prospect who was dealt from Baltimore to Tampa Bay last year for Tim Beckham. He has a very limited, but strong body of work to-date.
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152. Alex Cobb, David Phelps, Bobby Poyner and Ryan Borucki to Los Angeles (NL) for Travis Shaw, Tyler Thornburg, Tyler Stephenson

These trade talks started simply out of a courtesy notification to Shawn via Slack that he was on the clock to draft. We started chatting about his 2018 needs and when he said he was looking for pitching, we started discussing Cobb. He's a guy I've had for a while (acquired from LAA years ago), believing him to be a mid-20s SP with #2 upside. Post-surgery, I think he's fallen into solid #3 range and ZiPS seems to agree, putting him around 2.5 wins for the year. In return, the names I gravitated toward from Shawn were Travis Shaw, Kyle Seager and Ryan Braun -- hitters that would be helpful for me now. Braun would have been a little bit of a roadblock given my current OF and Shawn wanted to keep Seager just to deny me having the brothers Seager on my team. That shifted us to Shaw.

Shaw was a guy I never loved on the Red Sox, then he gets dealt for a RP (more on that later) and suddenly he's a 30-HR 3B entering his prime. I see him as the successor to Turner that I didn't have in place. While picking up a bench piece for a starting rotation member may seem backwards, I feel I have the pitching depth to make the move, while adding a young masher and other pieces I liked.

Once we had the 1-1 main pieces worked out, we added from there. I first attempted to pick up Tim Beckham, who would have provided me an upgrade over Camargo and Gurriel for the bench, but we couldn't work that out. I settled on Stephenson and Shawn on Borucki. Borucki is a 23-year-old lefty who is a top 10 guy profiling as a #4/5. Typical lefty velocity, good control. ZiPS aren't helpful now, but he had an impressive 2017. If he builds on that, he'll be a major leaguer this year. Stephenson is further off, having been delayed by injuries. But he was a high-profile 2015 draft pick and had an impressive .278/.374/.414 line as a catcher in A ball this year. With full health, I think he could end the year in AA.

Back to that RP. I had forgotten, but apparently I previously had Tyler Thornburg (circa 2013). I dealt for him and then dealt him away three days later (not shocking). I'm encouraged by the early reports out of Spring Training, though he missed all year after surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome. At his peak, he's a setup relief ace. But we'll see what he gives Boston this year. Amazing the Sox dealt Shaw for him straight up. Now I have them both. I tossed back David Phelps and Bobby Poyner to fill out Shawn's pen. I had both on the block due to my bullpen depth. Now I'll slide Thornburg into the list of guys able to fill in when necessary.

Shawn gets some pitching depth behind Tanaka and I snag my young 3B I've been coveting. All in all, I like the deal for both sides.
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153. Trevor Rogers, Kendall Graveman to Cleveland for Blayne Enlow

As I approached my first round pick, there were two main names I juggled -- Adam Haseley and Blayne Enlow. With the #8 overall pick available, I felt the value was there to take him at 29. But I also wanted to acquire Enlow. Danny had shown some interest in Graveman previously and with a pick at #42, we agreed to swap Graveman and 42 for 32, which got me Enlow.

In hindsight, I probably would have been fine keeping Rogers, a Marlins lefty who is a first round talent. But the more I read about Enlow, the more I liked. At 6'4 180 now, he could fill out to a workhorse 6'5 200 frame. At 18, he can already hit mid-90s and projects to increase his velocity. He has a plus curveball that some say is the best in the class among all pitchers and he is developing a changeup. Several prospect sites claim his floor is mid-rotation starter with front-line starter upside. As a high school arm, he'll take time to develop, but I like what I see.

Danny takes away a first round talent and a 26-year-old with a 1.6 zwar projection who should slot into his rotation, if needed. Rogers v. Enlow will take a while to determine who wins this one, but I got the guy I liked, so I'm happy.
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154. Matt Moore, Joe Rizzo to Tampa Bay for Michael Feliz

Matt and I began talking about Moore what was probably months ago. He was looking for some SP depth and I didn't mind moving him since I only gave up a third round pick for him. He's still only 28, if you can believe it, lefty and a nice gamble to see if he can reclaim some former glory. His projection is ok for the back end of a rotation with the hope he can find some success and have a decent ZiPS next year. Rizzo is a small 3B prospect I picked up in a trade from Colorado. Nice hitting approach, but scouts are unclear whether the power will come.
In return, I pick up a young late-innings reliever who has big stuff. This year, he has the added bonus of a couple games started, so he can be used sparingly, if needed. But with Cecil and Thornburg down early, he'll occupy a bullpen spot.
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155. Justin Turner to Pittsburgh for J.T. Realmuto and Jharel Cotton

JP and I had recently discussed a larger deal that ended unsuccessfully, but we both had a good idea of where we valued players. I have been a huge fan of Justin Turner since I acquired him following his first half season of success in LA. (Cue Aaron's rant reply to this post). I believed in him when others didn't, so it's a little tough to move him. However, he's 33 and I purposely picked up Travis Shaw this offseason to ensure I had a younger 3B who would hold down the corner for half a decade. With Camargo in the mix and a random Freddie Freeman 3B projection, I have cover this year. And while I had been discussing Freeman and Goldschmidt all offseason, moving Turner essentially ends that exercise, unless something magical comes along.

So, when JP posted that he was interested in a 3B and offering either Realmuto or McCutchen, I tossed out an inquiry. With a glut of outfielders as is and poor defensive projection, McCutchen wasn't that appealing. Realmuto, who's 27 and coming off back-to-back 3+ win seasons, was. While I am very happy with Sal Perez, I'm not thrilled he's injured his knees in back-to-back springs. Jason Castro and Matt Wieters are unlikely to reach super stardom at this point in their careers, so doubling up with the best catcher combination in the league seemed appealing. But Turner's projection is among the best in ZiPS, so I wanted a little more. Cotton represents, most likely, a #4 SP profile, but he's still young and will need successful recovery from Tommy John and a strong 2019 to be ZiPS-relevant moving forward. He will miss 2018, but I could see him being available next May as SP depth at 27. I've been a big fan of his stuff for a while, so I'm hopeful he can bounce back. It's a gamble, but if it pays off, I'll have a nice player in a couple years.

JP fills his 3B hole when Turner gets back from his wrist injury and it will largely improve the middle of his order. The side benefit to all this is Aaron gets to see Justin Turner in his box scores with JP for most of the season. It's the little things in life, people.
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156. Tyler Stephenson to Miami for Christian Arroyo

I picked up Stephenson a couple months ago from Los Angeles just as an added value piece -- a guy who has hung around the Reds' top 10 list for the last 2-3 seasons, but who has been plagued by injuries. He's got a big bat and a big arm. However, at 6'4, he may have challenges sticking behind the plate. For one, his reaction is slow due to his size. But he also needs to stay healthy. He's been raking this year and his bat has never been in question. But Nils had asked about him for a while and after acquiring J.T. Realmuto, I felt more comfortable moving him.
In exchange, I pick up another top 10 (and top 100) guy who has hung around lists but is yet to put things together. Arroyo is hailed for his bat and eye, but doesn't show much power. He has now moved off shortstop and to 3B, where there's now more pressure on his bat. I envision a Ben Zobrist type who plays several positions. If he can turn his good bat into some power, he'll be very valuable. He's a year older and two levels higher than Stephenson and a guy I hope to rely on as soon as next year.
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157. Bobby Dalbec to St. Louis for Aledmys Diaz

This was a deal to fill a need and doesn't even do so that well, but the price wasn't extensive. Aaron asked me if I wanted Diaz to tide me over for the lost Corey Seager season. A couple others had asked if I was interested in a deal and I was planning on rolling with Daniel Castro at SS, but it doesn't hurt to have a somewhat more useful piece. Diaz has some power and usable defense at SS. Castro will probably also play quite a bit this season to break them up. Dalbec is a slugging 3B in the BoSox system whom I like but considered cutting several times. He's got big power, but is hitting under .200 at A+ as of this writing. He's got a good eye and may be able to stay at 3B. He's a good gamble and Diaz hopefully fills a short-term need.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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158. Odubel Herrera, Jake Arrieta, Adam Haseley to Philadelphia for Ian Happ, Jon Lester, Harrison Bader

Not surprisingly, Nick has been after Adam Haseley since I drafted him (was surprised he fell to me at 29). When Arrieta signed with Philadelphia this offseason, I knew this would be another entry point for a deal. Herrera is a bit of new development. We had discussed him at times, but Nick had passing interest and I liked him more than he did. When he acquired Happ, I became more motivated to deal. We had flirted on a Lester/Arrieta swap in various deal structures for a bit. Herrera/Happ made sense in that he wanted Herrera (who is enjoying a bit of a breakout) and I wanted to add Happ's power and versatility. Bader/Haseley were an add-in I requested to get more of a CF. By losing Herrera, I'm now relying on Pillar-only in CF and wanted some additional depth.

I think the deal is largely fair across the board. Arrieta and Lester are both low-to-mid 30s pitchers with similar track records. Lester has no clue how to throw a pick-off, but is lefty and has a slightly better projection in some areas. I like him slightly better as a #3 and it gives the rotation some balance. But, they are marginal.

Herrera/Happ is the interesting case, to me. Herrera is crushing the ball and Nick refers to him as "PrOdubel," apparently because he's a professional baseball player? I wonder how often Nick stares at his Herrera poster each night. He's very good and he hasn't gotten the recognition he deserves. Doofus Mike Schmidt last year said Herrera couldn't lead because of his language -- so he decided to come out of the gate as one of the best players in the league. Happ came out of the gate the opposite way -- but being largely useless with a ton of Ks and few walks. May has been better and he's now up to a .254/.361/.590 slash line. Both guys have a BABIP issue, so we'll see how that adjusts. But I think Happ has solved my LF issue and I gained 3 years.

Bader is 23 in MLB and Haseley in A+. I think Haseley will be fine and could turn into a nice left-handed left fielder with some power and a good eye. Bader has a usable in a pinch projection, some history of power without striking out TOO much. He'll help now with Herrera out of town and I think he can develop into a solid 3rd/4th OF if he gets the chance.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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159. Lourdes Gurriel to Cincinnati for Anthony Banda and Cam Bedrosian

Banda was a name I liked from Ken before he got injured and he was discussed in other deals to no avail. When I saw he needed TJ, I figured he might be a little easier to get, a thought confirmed when Ken posted him on his trade block. We discussed several players, but they boiled down to Christian Arroyo or Lourdes Gurriel. Given Banda's lost year, I wanted a little more for one of the two top 100 prospects and Bedrosian is a 26-year-old back-end RP profile who needs to regain his 2016/2017 form to be a long-term asset. But for sim purposes, he'll fit in well.

On Arroyo/Gurriel, I went back and forth for a couple days. I think Arroyo has the better bat and is a better overall player. Gurriel has the bigger power and higher upside, but has a little more risk as well. I don't think either will stick at shortstop, with Gurriel more a 2B and Arroyo more a 3B. I can only hope Arroyo's strong bat translates to better power and he can stick at the hot corner. I could see either being MLB-level utility players at the end of the day.

I think Banda, also a top 100 prospect, is a solid lefty SP who had manageable BB numbers and strong K numbers, which positions him as a #3/4 when he returns from surgery and rehab. With decent numbers the last two years, I'm hopeful he won't take a huge ZiPS hit and can be helpful the second half of 2019 in some capacity.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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160. Lewin Diaz, Tyler Thornburg to Baltimore for Chris Davis and Carlos Gomez

On the heels of the Cincinnati deal, in which I was targeting a (hopefully) buy low candidate in Banda, I hit up Baltimore, a team that has struggled to maintain its year-after-year playoff expectations. I assumed (rightly) Steven was ready to move guys who aren't going to help him next year. Looking over the roster, he doesn't have that in pitching. Carrasco, Greinke, Porcello and even Richards should all be useful next year. In the pen, Allen is probably more expensive than I was ready to pay. But offensively, I feel there are a few guys who may be useful to a playoff team.

Chris Davis is having a historically horrible season (read more here! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-d ... ason-ever/) He's hitting .150 with 4 home runs. That said, ZiPS still had some respect for him coming into the season, putting him at .223/.318/.459 with 31 HR and 81 RBI with VG/EX power. A perk is his ability to play RF (AV/77, AV), 1B and 3B. That's not amazing, but it's useful. I can see him starting vs. righties toward the bottom of the order and being a nice pinch hitting option in the playoffs.

Carlos Gomez -- same boat as Davis. No longer a star, but useful in smaller roles. For me, I see him as an occasional starter in the OF, where he's VG/104, AV/155, VG/180, VG across the board. He has average power, very good running and jump, average stealing and I think is the type of guy who will be useful pinch running, as a defensive replacement or as a spot starter.

The return wasn't overwhelmingly tough to provide, but does give Steven some useful future pieces. As a Sox fan, I really want Tyler Thornburg to return to his 2016 form following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. However, it's June and he still hasn't returned. He's reportedly up to 96 MPH on his second 30-day rehab stint. His projection is mildly useful...about the same as Cam Bedrosian, so I don't consider that a huge present loss. I suspect he'll re-establish himself as a back-end bullpen option in a year. Lewin Diaz is a guy I've liked for a long time. He's got monster power and despite him being terrible in A+ this year, he still was named an All-Star. I like the profile and I think he has a chance to be a solid major leaguer in a few years. That said, he really needs to show some second half improvement to get back on the MLB pipeline.

Steven didn't get A-list prospects, but I also didn't get A-list anything. I think both sides get a few things that may be useful, but I assume neither of us are fully confident in that. It's a win for me if Davis or Gomez do something productive in the late season/playoffs and if I don't have to cut both in the offseason.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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161. J.T. Realmuto, Shane Bieber, Josh Lowe to Kansas City for Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Castillo

Well here's a blockbuster for a typical Friday night. Realmuto or Sal Perez were guys I considered dealing for quite a while, but I only received moderate interest. When I randomly reached out to Ian and asked if he'd move McCullers, he mentioned a slew of guys he knew I wouldn't deal, but he also listed Realmuto. A goal of dealing from a position of depth was to address an area of weakness -- namely young, good starting pitching or young, good center field help.

So, I felt it was worth pursuing. McCullers is on the short list of top-tier #2/1 young starting pitching in the league, which is always attractive. But Ian is never one to make a trade easy on you, which is a good quality. He also wanted Bieber, my sweet, sweet Shane Bieber. I went after him in the offseason because I love the type of guy who walks no one and has a penchant for striking out guys due to great control and command. He reminded me a lot of Kyle Hendricks, whom I followed extensively for months in 2013 before creating him. Both are guys no one put on prospect lists until they had already impressed a lot of people and the experts had to recognize them. And despite an ok projection, Bieber has been great for me -- a 2.95 ERA over 80 innings, which has been a pleasant surprise.

Giving him AND Realmuto up for McCullers was a loss in value to me, despite how good McCullers is. I wanted to add young SP depth, not make a lateral move in depth. At first, Ian was trying to offer less desirable players, so I either needed a top prospect or two or a better piece. I asked about Castillo, who was a target of mine in the offseason and who has a valuable projection. While he's been pretty horrible this year, I still think he's got great potential. Mechanics and fewer 4-seam fastballs seem to be at play with his struggles, so I'm hopeful they can be corrected and he can return to his 2017 form. I believe he and Bieber will swap projections next year, which will suck when I see them come out, but I think Castillo at worst is a #3/4 next year for me. This year, he has value based on his solid projection. Lowe was a little tough to move given I really had high hopes for him coming out of the 2016 draft. He was drafted to be my 3b of the future, but the Rays quickly moved him to CF. He's athletic and only 20 in A+, so I think he has some growth potential. But he'll have to cut down on the Ks to develop.

Realmuto is statistically the best catcher in baseball and I believe McCullers is one of the best 25 and under pitchers in the league. Bieber, I think, can max out as a #3, the same as Castillo. I now have a very good 2018 and beyond pitching staff and still have a very reliable catcher in Salvador Perez, which is a nice luxury. Turning Justin Turner into Realmuto into McCullers feels like a victory, even if it means giving up a very good young catcher in the process.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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162. Jharel Cotton, Harrison Bader, Tigers Draft Pick 3 to Rays for Domingo Santana, Anthony 16-Kay, Rays Draft Pick 3

I had been talking with Matt for a while trying to snag an outfielder to add a little depth to Betts, Happ and the resurgent Chris Davis. Marte was the first target, but when he was shipped out of town, Santana looked like a strong candidate. He checks in with a 2.3 win projection with a line of .258/.352/.472 26 HR 81 RBI and 10 SB with a VG arm in the sim. He's a former IBC Tiger and still only 25, though he was squeezed out of playing time in Milwaukee with the addition of Yelich and the strong play of Cain and Thames (Braun). I think he'll be the perfect MLB change of scenery candidate to get some regular playing time. He'll see time in right and left field for me down the stretch. Kay is a 2016 first round pick lefty starter who got TJ out of the way and is hitting 95 MPH in his first professional season. He's produced high strikeout rates and low walk rates and could be a sneaky good add as he continues to progress.

Matt, being the Cardinals fan he is, has liked Bader for a while. I'm a big fan, too. I think he can stick as a starting OF and has the skills to play centerfield as well. He's had a strong year at 24 and should project pretty well next year. But this trade was about this year, so I had to make a sacrifice. Cotton is a pitcher I've liked a while, but he too is recovering from TJ and won't be back until the end of 2019, meaning his projection will take a while to catch back up. The swap of third round picks bumps me probably somewhere between 15-20 spots, which should provide some nice value.

All in all, Matt adds some young depth and at least one player who can help him next year, while I get a young outfielder who adds some additional power and on base capability to the bottom half of my team.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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163. Kole Calhoun to Los Angeles Angels for Angels Draft Pick 3

A simple trade that has been on hold until picks were available to deal. I took a loss here on Calhoun, having given up some solid names for him last offseason. I love the defense and liked the power potential, especially with the new RF short porch in Anaheim. But he started off horribly and still hasn't gotten over .200. He has really come around since hitting the DL in May, but he's going to need to rake to get back to a usable projection moving forward. Worst case, Stephen gets some depth this year with some power and strong defense and a project moving forward. I add another draft pick to strengthen my farm and with Santana in the mix, Calhoun was expendable.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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164. Travis MacGregor to Philadelphia for Yangervis Solarte

Solarte was a guy I tried to get from Ian last year some time, but the price was a little too high for me. I just felt he would be a nice multi-position player. Nick and I had several high-profile trade talks the last few weeks, which gave me a chance to get to know his roster a little better. When talks fell through, I asked about Solarte, whom I figured wouldn't cost a lot. That cost turned out to be MacGregor, a guy I just picked up and haven't yet become enamored. He was a 2016 second round pick of the Pirates and battled some injuries that put him behind. But the 6'3 righty has solid scouting reports and has put up a 12k/3bb per 9 ratio with a 3.09 ERA over 46.2 IP/11 starts in A. He's far off, but has some nice momentum to build on for 2019.
Solarte is not amazing, but he's only 31 and a switch hitting 3B for Toronto who followed up his 2017 campaign of 18 home runs in 128 games with 17 home runs in only 98 games so far. His BABIP remains low (.240), which has kept his average at .237. He doesn't strike out and he walks a little. His value is that he plays 1B, 2B, 3B, SS with low error rates, making him ideal insurance for the rest of the year. He has solid splits, making him usable in different situations.
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Re: Detroit Dealings

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165. Jon Lester, Angels Draft Pick 3 to Washington for Marcell Ozuna, White Sox Draft Pick 5

The other day I found out Z had interest in Lester when a separate trade fell through, so I approached Z about it directly. We had discussed Ozuna previously, but couldn't find a match. When this became the basis of the trade, I felt comfortable moving forward. While Lester has been solid for me (6-3 3.57 ERA over 10 starts), I felt like the difference between him and Luis Castillo in a playoff matchup was somewhat negligible. He has fair durability and a poor hold rating, but ZiPS does like him and he's earned that good reputation. But his peripherals are upside down, the Ks are down, walks are up and I think he will continue to decline as a 35-year-old to begin next year.

Ozuna is an interesting get. He was outstanding last year and kind of a disaster this year. But he comes with a 30-home run projection in ZiPS with .278/.335/.492 slash line. He also has VG range and a VG arm in the outfield, which will come in handy. He's also only 27. So while he's had a down year, ZiPS was pretty big on him for 2018. Even if he takes a step back from that line, he will be a solid player next year and hopefully can get back on track. While I took a hit in draft picks, I think that ends up being somewhat insignificant for a 7-year age pick up. Ozuna will find time in the outfield with Happ and Betts and with Santana in tow, can allow Happ to play around the infield and even provide an avenue to slot in Santana at DH if I find the right deal for one of my 1B.
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