248. Kyle Hendricks to Houston for David Fletcher
It's offense Friday. Jake tossed this out and we completed it within a few hours. I wasn't necessarily looking to move Hendricks and, in general, starting pitching is a more valuable commodity, but I've liked Fletcher for a long time. Despite a weak start to the season, he's back up to a .314 average as of this writing. It would be great if he could get to 15 HR and 15 SB, but for now it's hoping for 5 HR and 15 SB. But he projects at 4 positions, is only 27, and will slot in in LF for me moving forward.
Hendricks is an old favorite, but he's had a rough go of it the last couple years. He was really good in the shortened 2020, but he started giving up home runs this year at a higher rate than normal. He's still a control machine and has 12 wins. I assume he'll be traded in the next week in MLB, which may help him out. I think he's a solid #3 SP who's only 31, so there's a lot of value to Jake. He had been simming right along his projection, so if that keeps up, Jake has a nice asset for the stretch run.
All The Guardians Trades
Moderator: Guardians
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
- Location: Tallahassee, FL
- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
249. Tony Kemp to San Diego for Bryce Elder, Padres Draft Pick 3
What a night -- a trade hat trick. First Gudim, then Levine, and now Zalaski. The deal with Minnesota was unexpected. The deals with Houston and San Diego had not been contemplated or thought of when they occurred. Z and I had discussed very loosely some kind of deal a couple times, but nothing transpired. This move came as a result of me telling him I wasn't going to pursue a different player. Ultimately, Kemp is a guy I like but don't need and I felt like I got some value for him. He was a nice toss-in to a deal I did in April, just trying to get a guy who could be bench depth, if needed. He's exploded in Oakland, having a really nice season in which he's walking at a high rate and getting on base at a .380 clip. That's the type of guy Z will be looking toward next year for key at bats.
In exchange, I get a couple nice gambles. Elder is a 4-pitch mix righty from Texas who Atlanta is developing. If he can bump his velocity, maybe he can turn into a rotation piece. Right now, he's shown nice results between A+ and AA as a 2020 draftee and he combined for a no hitter two weeks ago. The third round pick is really a late second rounder, as long as Z does the right thing and continues to lose. While I'm dealing first rounders for 36-year-olds, I need to keep the farm deep, which this deal accomplishes.
What a night -- a trade hat trick. First Gudim, then Levine, and now Zalaski. The deal with Minnesota was unexpected. The deals with Houston and San Diego had not been contemplated or thought of when they occurred. Z and I had discussed very loosely some kind of deal a couple times, but nothing transpired. This move came as a result of me telling him I wasn't going to pursue a different player. Ultimately, Kemp is a guy I like but don't need and I felt like I got some value for him. He was a nice toss-in to a deal I did in April, just trying to get a guy who could be bench depth, if needed. He's exploded in Oakland, having a really nice season in which he's walking at a high rate and getting on base at a .380 clip. That's the type of guy Z will be looking toward next year for key at bats.
In exchange, I get a couple nice gambles. Elder is a 4-pitch mix righty from Texas who Atlanta is developing. If he can bump his velocity, maybe he can turn into a rotation piece. Right now, he's shown nice results between A+ and AA as a 2020 draftee and he combined for a no hitter two weeks ago. The third round pick is really a late second rounder, as long as Z does the right thing and continues to lose. While I'm dealing first rounders for 36-year-olds, I need to keep the farm deep, which this deal accomplishes.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
250. Richard Rodriguez, Wander Suero to Cleveland for Chris McMahon, Logan Allen
Jim appears to like the no-communication-cold-offer route, and that's how this one went down. He tossed out Rodriguez for McMahon and I countered with adding Suero and Allen and here we are. Rodriguez, 31, is a really nice pitcher who has had a nice season and just got dealt to Atlanta for a fair hefty price (Bryce Wilson +1). His K and spin rates have declined this year compared to previous seasons, but he's still got a pristine 2.82 ERA over 38.1 IP. Suero isn't very good and both have struggled for me in the IBC.
McMahon is a FV 45-50 right-handed starting pitcher with a mid 90s fastball, slider, and changeup. He ended up going early in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft despite some first round buzz. So far in 2021, he has 77 strikeouts over 76 innings and 21 walks, averaging 5-6 innings per start. He looks like a #3 upside SP if he continues developing his secondary pitches.
Allen is also a 2020 draftee, a lefty, and not the lefty Logan Allen for Indians who is 24 and has 16 horrible starts over AAA and MLB. This Logan Allen is 22 and was also drafted early in the second round in 2020. He's been promoted from A+ to AA and 84 strikeouts through 67 innings. He has a fastball/slider/changeup repertoire.
Jim appears to like the no-communication-cold-offer route, and that's how this one went down. He tossed out Rodriguez for McMahon and I countered with adding Suero and Allen and here we are. Rodriguez, 31, is a really nice pitcher who has had a nice season and just got dealt to Atlanta for a fair hefty price (Bryce Wilson +1). His K and spin rates have declined this year compared to previous seasons, but he's still got a pristine 2.82 ERA over 38.1 IP. Suero isn't very good and both have struggled for me in the IBC.
McMahon is a FV 45-50 right-handed starting pitcher with a mid 90s fastball, slider, and changeup. He ended up going early in the 2nd round in the 2020 draft despite some first round buzz. So far in 2021, he has 77 strikeouts over 76 innings and 21 walks, averaging 5-6 innings per start. He looks like a #3 upside SP if he continues developing his secondary pitches.
Allen is also a 2020 draftee, a lefty, and not the lefty Logan Allen for Indians who is 24 and has 16 horrible starts over AAA and MLB. This Logan Allen is 22 and was also drafted early in the second round in 2020. He's been promoted from A+ to AA and 84 strikeouts through 67 innings. He has a fastball/slider/changeup repertoire.
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Guardians
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- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
251. Jean Segura, Jose Alvarez, Vaughn Grissom to Kansas City for Cleveland Draft Pick 1, Marco Gonzales, Trevor Rosenthal
Dealing with my new arch nemesis Larry (sorry Gudim) can be a marathon, but we usually have come to some kind of agreement. On this one, he asked about Segura a couple weeks ago. There really wasn't much I was targeting, but adding a first round pick after giving one up for Turner was something of interest. Segura is crushing the ball in real life and already worth 2.3 wins at .310/370. With Seager and Bote back, Segura could go. He was always going to be a rental for me (albeit a fairly expensive one having to deal Pepiot and Acuna's brother).
My main goal beyond the pick was trying to snag Trevor May, whom I tried to get before he was dealt to Larry a couple weeks ago. Larry and Trevor May are best friends, so that didn't bear any fruit, even though I was offering back Alvarez, a solid lefty reliever. Larry quickly identified Grissom as a guy he wanted and I didn't really want to give him up. He was an over slot signee in 2019 after being deemed unsignable. And he's putting things together a nice first full pro season as a 6'3 180 SS with a good eye, low strikeout numbers and a little power and speed. He may end up being one of the better values out of the deal for Larry.
The first round pick was a decision between Cleveland's and Kansas City's, so I'm assuming that with 30 or so games to go, Cleveland can't overcome Larry's crazy luck and Kershaw's continued lack of health. Larry tossed out Gonzales, whom I got from Aaron and quickly dealt to Larry. While he's a dumpster fire in MLB, he's going to be a very useful innings eater for the next month with my staff in need of a little depth. So, while I prefer May as a player, Gonzales is probably the more useful player for me.
Rosenthal is kind of whatever. He was coming off surgery this year (thoracic outlet syndrome) and now is recovering from another surgery (hip). I have no idea what he'll be next year or if he'll be healthy, but he was solid in a small sample size in 2020 and has had success in the past. He could be a draft drop or a usable reliever net year. Time will tell.
I think Larry actually improved this year with Segura and Alvarez, while I get nice value in a (hopefully) teens first round pick, usable starting pitcher, and question mark reliever. Larry also adds a solid shortstop prospect.
Dealing with my new arch nemesis Larry (sorry Gudim) can be a marathon, but we usually have come to some kind of agreement. On this one, he asked about Segura a couple weeks ago. There really wasn't much I was targeting, but adding a first round pick after giving one up for Turner was something of interest. Segura is crushing the ball in real life and already worth 2.3 wins at .310/370. With Seager and Bote back, Segura could go. He was always going to be a rental for me (albeit a fairly expensive one having to deal Pepiot and Acuna's brother).
My main goal beyond the pick was trying to snag Trevor May, whom I tried to get before he was dealt to Larry a couple weeks ago. Larry and Trevor May are best friends, so that didn't bear any fruit, even though I was offering back Alvarez, a solid lefty reliever. Larry quickly identified Grissom as a guy he wanted and I didn't really want to give him up. He was an over slot signee in 2019 after being deemed unsignable. And he's putting things together a nice first full pro season as a 6'3 180 SS with a good eye, low strikeout numbers and a little power and speed. He may end up being one of the better values out of the deal for Larry.
The first round pick was a decision between Cleveland's and Kansas City's, so I'm assuming that with 30 or so games to go, Cleveland can't overcome Larry's crazy luck and Kershaw's continued lack of health. Larry tossed out Gonzales, whom I got from Aaron and quickly dealt to Larry. While he's a dumpster fire in MLB, he's going to be a very useful innings eater for the next month with my staff in need of a little depth. So, while I prefer May as a player, Gonzales is probably the more useful player for me.
Rosenthal is kind of whatever. He was coming off surgery this year (thoracic outlet syndrome) and now is recovering from another surgery (hip). I have no idea what he'll be next year or if he'll be healthy, but he was solid in a small sample size in 2020 and has had success in the past. He could be a draft drop or a usable reliever net year. Time will tell.
I think Larry actually improved this year with Segura and Alvarez, while I get nice value in a (hopefully) teens first round pick, usable starting pitcher, and question mark reliever. Larry also adds a solid shortstop prospect.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
252. Brad Hand to Philadelphia for J.P. Crawford
This wasn't something I was pursuing, but I messaged Nick and offered Hand as an option to fill his bullpen needs. Hand had been pretty bad for me in a small sample size and really was acquired for the value he could bring as a late innings reliever. I think he'll probably do great for Nick since everyone I deal him shines.
Crawford was a top prospect for several years and graduated in the FV 55 range. He's had a breakout this season as a starter in Seattle, so far posting a 271/333/371 line with above average defense. If he locks in as a 2+ win shortstop with some bat as a 26-year-old, I'll be very happy with the return. With Seager, clearly this wasn't a need but more of a value situation.
This wasn't something I was pursuing, but I messaged Nick and offered Hand as an option to fill his bullpen needs. Hand had been pretty bad for me in a small sample size and really was acquired for the value he could bring as a late innings reliever. I think he'll probably do great for Nick since everyone I deal him shines.
Crawford was a top prospect for several years and graduated in the FV 55 range. He's had a breakout this season as a starter in Seattle, so far posting a 271/333/371 line with above average defense. If he locks in as a 2+ win shortstop with some bat as a 26-year-old, I'll be very happy with the return. With Seager, clearly this wasn't a need but more of a value situation.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
253. Tigers Draft Pick 3 to Texas for Adolis Garcia, Miguel Castro
See post. Respond to post. I just asked Brett what he was looking for for both Garcia and Castro and he said a 3rd. This seems ok now, but given how good Brett is at drafting, I imagine the 16-year-old he takes with this pick will be the next Fernando Tatis Jr. But I get a couple guys I can use in one way or another.
Brett runs his relievers to death and he's done so with Castro, who has a 3.97 ERA projection with VG durability and 60 percent ground ball rate. He also walks a lot of guys, so we'll see if he's usable or just depth. Garcia is a 28-year-old All Star who was hitting .271 at the break and is now hitting .245. It appears he needs to adjust to the pitchers who have figured out the gaps in his swing. But he's got 23 home runs with very good defense in center field with a big arm and he can steal a few bases. He's a big strikeout guy, so if he can adjust that down some, it would make a big difference. Let's see if he can make some changes to get back on track.
See post. Respond to post. I just asked Brett what he was looking for for both Garcia and Castro and he said a 3rd. This seems ok now, but given how good Brett is at drafting, I imagine the 16-year-old he takes with this pick will be the next Fernando Tatis Jr. But I get a couple guys I can use in one way or another.
Brett runs his relievers to death and he's done so with Castro, who has a 3.97 ERA projection with VG durability and 60 percent ground ball rate. He also walks a lot of guys, so we'll see if he's usable or just depth. Garcia is a 28-year-old All Star who was hitting .271 at the break and is now hitting .245. It appears he needs to adjust to the pitchers who have figured out the gaps in his swing. But he's got 23 home runs with very good defense in center field with a big arm and he can steal a few bases. He's a big strikeout guy, so if he can adjust that down some, it would make a big difference. Let's see if he can make some changes to get back on track.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
254. Mark Vientos, Logan Allen, Trevor Richards to New York (NL) for Zack Greinke and David Price
I had reached out to John about Greinke and Price, but he was out of pocket, so this just came up pretty quickly. John had a great 2020, but 2021 hasn't been as kind to him. So, it really makes sense for him to look at investing in younger assets and moving his veterans. Greinke is almost 38 and no one knows if he's going to retire or keep moving. His 2020 projection is very strong and he's having a nice 2021. He looks like a clear playoff starter for me, so he'll have a lot of use this year. I'm hopeful he pitches again next year, but Greinke has a mind of his own. Price also has a strong projection and has a SP/RP hybrid projection and has built back after a 2020 season off. Price is useful in a number of roles -- starter, long reliever, short reliever. Even though Price is 35/36, he took 2020 off, so he's a little fresher than some. I think he has good value and has proven himself in MLB.
I'm very big on Vientos. He has been young for his level for several years and 2021 has been a huge breakout. He has hit over 20 home runs and has really come into his own as a legit 3B prospect. He's back in the top 100 conversation and I think he belongs there. Allen was a nice pickup from Cleveland. To be clear -- there are three Logan Allens. He is the very good Guardians' lefty SP prospect, not the failed Guardians' SP nor the Rays' Of prospect. Richards is having a nice 2021, and looks to be more RP than SP at this point. His K rate is high and he's under 30, so he should be a nice future asset.
I had reached out to John about Greinke and Price, but he was out of pocket, so this just came up pretty quickly. John had a great 2020, but 2021 hasn't been as kind to him. So, it really makes sense for him to look at investing in younger assets and moving his veterans. Greinke is almost 38 and no one knows if he's going to retire or keep moving. His 2020 projection is very strong and he's having a nice 2021. He looks like a clear playoff starter for me, so he'll have a lot of use this year. I'm hopeful he pitches again next year, but Greinke has a mind of his own. Price also has a strong projection and has a SP/RP hybrid projection and has built back after a 2020 season off. Price is useful in a number of roles -- starter, long reliever, short reliever. Even though Price is 35/36, he took 2020 off, so he's a little fresher than some. I think he has good value and has proven himself in MLB.
I'm very big on Vientos. He has been young for his level for several years and 2021 has been a huge breakout. He has hit over 20 home runs and has really come into his own as a legit 3B prospect. He's back in the top 100 conversation and I think he belongs there. Allen was a nice pickup from Cleveland. To be clear -- there are three Logan Allens. He is the very good Guardians' lefty SP prospect, not the failed Guardians' SP nor the Rays' Of prospect. Richards is having a nice 2021, and looks to be more RP than SP at this point. His K rate is high and he's under 30, so he should be a nice future asset.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
255. David Price to Miami for Andre Jackson and Emmanuel Rodriguez
Price didn't even make it 12 hours as an IBC Tiger. Greinke gives me a solid starting pitcher who can start in a playoff series. Price was going to be a #5/swingman in the pen, so while that has value, that is replaceable. I essentially dealt Allen, a FV 45 pitcher, for Price. In exchange, I picked up Jackson, a fellow FV 45 pitcher, and Rodriguez, a big upside outfielder for the Twins. Jackson is 25 and has ascended from A to MLB all in 2021. He's a clear team top 10 prospect on the Dodgers with several pitches, including a high 90s fastball. Rodriguez is only 18 in his first pro season. He's got seven home runs with a little speed, a good eye and a lot of raw power. I think he's a legitimate prospect who has a nice future in store. He's going to take time to develop, but I intend to give him the time.
Price didn't even make it 12 hours as an IBC Tiger. Greinke gives me a solid starting pitcher who can start in a playoff series. Price was going to be a #5/swingman in the pen, so while that has value, that is replaceable. I essentially dealt Allen, a FV 45 pitcher, for Price. In exchange, I picked up Jackson, a fellow FV 45 pitcher, and Rodriguez, a big upside outfielder for the Twins. Jackson is 25 and has ascended from A to MLB all in 2021. He's a clear team top 10 prospect on the Dodgers with several pitches, including a high 90s fastball. Rodriguez is only 18 in his first pro season. He's got seven home runs with a little speed, a good eye and a lot of raw power. I think he's a legitimate prospect who has a nice future in store. He's going to take time to develop, but I intend to give him the time.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
256. Corey Knebel, Leury Garcia to Philadelphia for Ryne Nelson, Jhailyn Ortiz, Pirates Draft Pick 2
The trade deadline in Detroit started with a smaller deal, but one that set the stage for other moves. I have been waiting just about all year for Knebel to return. He has a solid projection and had done well for me before he strained his lat and missed 92 games. And while Knebel is good, he's also fragile. Still only 29, but he's missed significant time and that's certainly a possibility again. Nick has been interested in relief help, so I tossed out his name. I was trying to find a suitor for JD Martinez at the deadline and talked briefly about it with Nick, but to no avail. This smaller version happened quickly after that. Garcia is a solid backup utility guy I got from Atlanta a few weeks back when I was short on outfielders. With the team getting healthy again, he became expendable and Nick needed a guy.
Nelson is another FV45-50 SP prospect I'm adding to my stable. He's 23 and in Arizona, drafted in the second round in 2019. He's having a solid season between A+ and AA. He has some command issues, so there is some risk here, but he has dominant stuff. With a little more work, he stays in the rotation and probably has #3 upside. Ortiz was a big international signing in 2016 and he has 70-grade power. Still just 22, he's in AA and has another 20+ home runs under his belt. He was a value-add into the deal since Nick's farm is a little barren. The Pirates second round pick will be a 55-60 overall, but should hold value or end up being a fun pick during the draft.
The trade deadline in Detroit started with a smaller deal, but one that set the stage for other moves. I have been waiting just about all year for Knebel to return. He has a solid projection and had done well for me before he strained his lat and missed 92 games. And while Knebel is good, he's also fragile. Still only 29, but he's missed significant time and that's certainly a possibility again. Nick has been interested in relief help, so I tossed out his name. I was trying to find a suitor for JD Martinez at the deadline and talked briefly about it with Nick, but to no avail. This smaller version happened quickly after that. Garcia is a solid backup utility guy I got from Atlanta a few weeks back when I was short on outfielders. With the team getting healthy again, he became expendable and Nick needed a guy.
Nelson is another FV45-50 SP prospect I'm adding to my stable. He's 23 and in Arizona, drafted in the second round in 2019. He's having a solid season between A+ and AA. He has some command issues, so there is some risk here, but he has dominant stuff. With a little more work, he stays in the rotation and probably has #3 upside. Ortiz was a big international signing in 2016 and he has 70-grade power. Still just 22, he's in AA and has another 20+ home runs under his belt. He was a value-add into the deal since Nick's farm is a little barren. The Pirates second round pick will be a 55-60 overall, but should hold value or end up being a fun pick during the draft.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
257. J.D. Martinez, Eduardo Escobar, Tyler Gilbert, Yonathan Daza to Kansas City for Nick Castellanos and Lorenzo Cain
I'm a big JD Martinez fan, but he wasn't right for my team. While his 23 home runs so far this year have been fine, a .241/.321/.439 line is unacceptable for a DH. But the larger issue is the defense. He is a true DH and can't play anywhere else, which limits what I can do with the lineup. Pushing the issue was the acquisition a month ago of Justin Turner. And while Turner doesn't have the power of Martinez, he has a great bat and better defense at 3B than Devers. So, I've been wasting him and need to get him more ABs.
Moving Martinez allowed me to shuffle the lineup to maximize the offensive potential. I tossed Martinez out to Nick (longshot: NL), Nils (had shown interest), Dan (hates responding to me) and a few others, but didn't get a ton of real interest. Larry, though, being a Red Sox homer like me, was interested in talking. And this one took most of the day. But at the end of it, the deal was pretty simple: Larry gave up the best 2021 MLB hitter and a guy who's got a good sim but is 36 and sucking and he got older. But he also got a big slugger in-line with the offense lost, a switch hitting infielder who has VG/VG power and was an All-Star, a lefty who threw a no-hitter, and a low-power, high-average outfielder with plus D.
I can see the upside and downside from his perspective. And while Castellanos is having a strong season, he's also in a contract year. He was horrible last year and has always been a very good hitter, not a stud. Martinez has been a stud in recent years and he'll project well. Escobar will project well. Daza will project as a CF to replace Daza and who knows on Gilbert.
For me, while Castellanos has never been particularly nimble, he does have a VG arm, which will play in the sim. I will be able to use him in LF, slide Devers to DH and Turner to 3B, which adds a layer to my offense. While losing Escobar's 25 home runs (second on the team) will hurt, I'll be adding Turner, who should fill the gap. Fletcher slides to 2B, where he has VG defense and so I think I improve overall.
I'm a big JD Martinez fan, but he wasn't right for my team. While his 23 home runs so far this year have been fine, a .241/.321/.439 line is unacceptable for a DH. But the larger issue is the defense. He is a true DH and can't play anywhere else, which limits what I can do with the lineup. Pushing the issue was the acquisition a month ago of Justin Turner. And while Turner doesn't have the power of Martinez, he has a great bat and better defense at 3B than Devers. So, I've been wasting him and need to get him more ABs.
Moving Martinez allowed me to shuffle the lineup to maximize the offensive potential. I tossed Martinez out to Nick (longshot: NL), Nils (had shown interest), Dan (hates responding to me) and a few others, but didn't get a ton of real interest. Larry, though, being a Red Sox homer like me, was interested in talking. And this one took most of the day. But at the end of it, the deal was pretty simple: Larry gave up the best 2021 MLB hitter and a guy who's got a good sim but is 36 and sucking and he got older. But he also got a big slugger in-line with the offense lost, a switch hitting infielder who has VG/VG power and was an All-Star, a lefty who threw a no-hitter, and a low-power, high-average outfielder with plus D.
I can see the upside and downside from his perspective. And while Castellanos is having a strong season, he's also in a contract year. He was horrible last year and has always been a very good hitter, not a stud. Martinez has been a stud in recent years and he'll project well. Escobar will project well. Daza will project as a CF to replace Daza and who knows on Gilbert.
For me, while Castellanos has never been particularly nimble, he does have a VG arm, which will play in the sim. I will be able to use him in LF, slide Devers to DH and Turner to 3B, which adds a layer to my offense. While losing Escobar's 25 home runs (second on the team) will hurt, I'll be adding Turner, who should fill the gap. Fletcher slides to 2B, where he has VG defense and so I think I improve overall.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
258. Nate Lowe to Cincinnati for Colton Welker, Yasel Antuna
Here's a deal that just happened because of mere presence. Ken was online and we were chatting about trades. At the same time, I was talking with Nils about a different deal, so I asked Ken about Welker. Since I was considering moving Jones to Nils, I wanted to try to get a 3B prospect. Ken mentioned that Lowe could be helpful to him, so off we went.
Welker was an easy target. He was a top 5 team prospect the last few years before he declined a little and got hurt. So, it's been a tough run. ZiPS loved him this year despite that, providing a .282/.331/.445 slash line with 15 HR (AV power). It's not amazing, but it's potentially useful if needed. He's only 23 and in AAA, so the potential is still there and the opportunity is there in Colorado. Some offseason work could easily get him back on track.
Antuna was a nice get. He was a 2016 international signee who has just recently tapped into the power scouts have been waiting for. He hit 11 bombs during a two-week stretch during 2020 at the alternative site and has 12 home runs and 23 doubles so far this year in high A at 21. He's also had some injury issues, but remains an easy FV 45 who should stick in the infield.
Lowe crushed me this year. I picked him up earlier this year excited about the bat, the power, the eye, all at 25. And all he did in 2021 was show the eye. The power disappeared. He isn't even hitting doubles. So, while I wouldn't give up on him just yet, he didn't progress as expected. But his projection is really nice (.344 OBP 460 SLG VG/VG power and AV D at 1B) and Ken will be able to deploy him immediately. I didn't need him; he was just a stash for me. So, I picked up two good prospects instead.
Here's a deal that just happened because of mere presence. Ken was online and we were chatting about trades. At the same time, I was talking with Nils about a different deal, so I asked Ken about Welker. Since I was considering moving Jones to Nils, I wanted to try to get a 3B prospect. Ken mentioned that Lowe could be helpful to him, so off we went.
Welker was an easy target. He was a top 5 team prospect the last few years before he declined a little and got hurt. So, it's been a tough run. ZiPS loved him this year despite that, providing a .282/.331/.445 slash line with 15 HR (AV power). It's not amazing, but it's potentially useful if needed. He's only 23 and in AAA, so the potential is still there and the opportunity is there in Colorado. Some offseason work could easily get him back on track.
Antuna was a nice get. He was a 2016 international signee who has just recently tapped into the power scouts have been waiting for. He hit 11 bombs during a two-week stretch during 2020 at the alternative site and has 12 home runs and 23 doubles so far this year in high A at 21. He's also had some injury issues, but remains an easy FV 45 who should stick in the infield.
Lowe crushed me this year. I picked him up earlier this year excited about the bat, the power, the eye, all at 25. And all he did in 2021 was show the eye. The power disappeared. He isn't even hitting doubles. So, while I wouldn't give up on him just yet, he didn't progress as expected. But his projection is really nice (.344 OBP 460 SLG VG/VG power and AV D at 1B) and Ken will be able to deploy him immediately. I didn't need him; he was just a stash for me. So, I picked up two good prospects instead.
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Guardians
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
259. Nolan Jones, Dan Hudson to Miami for James Karinchak, Tim Hill
So, while I was working on Welker to add prospect depth, I was working on the very difficult decision of parting with Nolan Jones. For sure 2021 has been a tough one for him. For one, he has slid from clear top 50 prospect to murkier top 60s-70s prospect. His defensive home has also shifted. While he was once a 3B, he's now maybe a LF or RF. He's a tough one to value and while I love him, some others do not. That said, he's been amazing for me, which also made him tough to move. He's been arguably my best hitter (yikes) at .256/.371/.526 with 14 HR and 33 RBI as a platoon 1B. Weird, but true. So, while I think his struggles in AAA will hurt his projection next year, I still think he could be a regular major leaguer. Hudson was a flier pickup given that he's had a nice 2021 season and was previously a solid reliever. I wasn't using him, so I didn't care.
Nils had previously offered Karinchak for Jones, but I resisted. Karinchak has an amazing projection (143 ERA+, monster Ks) as a closer and he's going to add a ton to the back of the pen. Between he, Castillo, Iglesias, and Robertson, it's going to be tough on opponents. However, there are some red flags. He was noticeably less dominant in 2021 than the SSS 2020 that has built his projection. This has been highlighted in the second half, where his results worsened to the point of demotion this week. If he stays healthy, he will have a ton of 2021 value for me, so I'm hopeful that's the case and he can work on mechanics this winter. Hill was an intriguing get. He's just a 31-year-old lefty in San Diego with a 117 ERA+ projection and a 69 percent GB rate, but that's going to be useful in certain situations. So, I think both really help my bullpen.
While moving Knebel didn't help my depth, I liked the value in return. I wouldn't say that was a key factor, but seeing my pen and looking at what a key injury or two would do, I felt it was worth pulling the trigger. I think Karinchak will lose dominance in next year's ZiPS, but should still be top-tier and I still have Devers and Turner, so 3B isn't a near-term issue for the team.
So, while I was working on Welker to add prospect depth, I was working on the very difficult decision of parting with Nolan Jones. For sure 2021 has been a tough one for him. For one, he has slid from clear top 50 prospect to murkier top 60s-70s prospect. His defensive home has also shifted. While he was once a 3B, he's now maybe a LF or RF. He's a tough one to value and while I love him, some others do not. That said, he's been amazing for me, which also made him tough to move. He's been arguably my best hitter (yikes) at .256/.371/.526 with 14 HR and 33 RBI as a platoon 1B. Weird, but true. So, while I think his struggles in AAA will hurt his projection next year, I still think he could be a regular major leaguer. Hudson was a flier pickup given that he's had a nice 2021 season and was previously a solid reliever. I wasn't using him, so I didn't care.
Nils had previously offered Karinchak for Jones, but I resisted. Karinchak has an amazing projection (143 ERA+, monster Ks) as a closer and he's going to add a ton to the back of the pen. Between he, Castillo, Iglesias, and Robertson, it's going to be tough on opponents. However, there are some red flags. He was noticeably less dominant in 2021 than the SSS 2020 that has built his projection. This has been highlighted in the second half, where his results worsened to the point of demotion this week. If he stays healthy, he will have a ton of 2021 value for me, so I'm hopeful that's the case and he can work on mechanics this winter. Hill was an intriguing get. He's just a 31-year-old lefty in San Diego with a 117 ERA+ projection and a 69 percent GB rate, but that's going to be useful in certain situations. So, I think both really help my bullpen.
While moving Knebel didn't help my depth, I liked the value in return. I wouldn't say that was a key factor, but seeing my pen and looking at what a key injury or two would do, I felt it was worth pulling the trigger. I think Karinchak will lose dominance in next year's ZiPS, but should still be top-tier and I still have Devers and Turner, so 3B isn't a near-term issue for the team.
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Re: Detroit Dealings
260. Jose Berrios, Nick Castellanos to Washington for Shane Bieber
Win a championship -- check. Kick off the off-season with a blockbuster -- check. Ian and I have an interesting trade past, one where he typically beats me on most deals. This could easily be one of those situations. However, Bieber is a guy I've wanted back for a while and I knew it would take sacrifice to get him. It's really tough to have a conversation about best young starting pitcher without Bieber. When he was coming up, most people doubted he would have the stuff to make it in the majors since he didn't have monster strikeout numbers. He just had elite control/command and he rocketed once he hit the majors.
The shoulder injury that cost him most of 2021 seems to be behind him, but shoulder concerns for pitchers are something to watch. So, why do the deal? Honestly, this came down to wanting a great pitcher. Berrios is a very good pitcher, but I think Bieber is a notch ahead. For some reason, Berrios has just be Ok for me in the sim lately. A 4.10 ERA this year, a 4.22 ERA last year. And he was phenomenal this year in the majors, but I also don't love him being in the AL East for the next seven years. The AL Central is a cozier arrangement. Plus, Bieber is a year younger. So, for all those reasons, I wanted to upgrade.
The cost was steep. Adding Castellanos was a bold move, but that likely was going to be the only way to get Ian to consider moving Bieber. He, like me, has a very strong trio of pitchers (Bieber/Urias/Peralta) and wanted to keep them together. So I needed to add something big. Ian had mentioned interest in Castellanos a few weeks ago, so he seemed like a natural guy to add here. I contemplated asking for something back, but I thought the guys I'd want would either be too pricey or not worth asking for. Ultimately, I made the 2-1 offer and Ian accepted.
Part of the reason I dealt for Castellanos late in the season was his trade appeal. With JD Martinez aging, I knew his market would shrink and while Castellanos has hit 30, he's coming off a monster season. His projection should be very good and depending where he goes, he should continue to rake. His defense is a minus and I already have two RF better than he, so he wasn't going to play there. He'd probably end up as a weak LF for me. Ian's crossing his fingers he gets a DH next year, I'm sure. But with Alonso, Castellanos, Mancini, Schoop, Hampson, and others, the Nationals should be a strong contender in 2022.
For me, I have an amazing start (assuming health) to the rotation with Bieber, Giolito, Buehler, and still a very stout offense. First big trade of the off-season with more to come (I'm sure).
Win a championship -- check. Kick off the off-season with a blockbuster -- check. Ian and I have an interesting trade past, one where he typically beats me on most deals. This could easily be one of those situations. However, Bieber is a guy I've wanted back for a while and I knew it would take sacrifice to get him. It's really tough to have a conversation about best young starting pitcher without Bieber. When he was coming up, most people doubted he would have the stuff to make it in the majors since he didn't have monster strikeout numbers. He just had elite control/command and he rocketed once he hit the majors.
The shoulder injury that cost him most of 2021 seems to be behind him, but shoulder concerns for pitchers are something to watch. So, why do the deal? Honestly, this came down to wanting a great pitcher. Berrios is a very good pitcher, but I think Bieber is a notch ahead. For some reason, Berrios has just be Ok for me in the sim lately. A 4.10 ERA this year, a 4.22 ERA last year. And he was phenomenal this year in the majors, but I also don't love him being in the AL East for the next seven years. The AL Central is a cozier arrangement. Plus, Bieber is a year younger. So, for all those reasons, I wanted to upgrade.
The cost was steep. Adding Castellanos was a bold move, but that likely was going to be the only way to get Ian to consider moving Bieber. He, like me, has a very strong trio of pitchers (Bieber/Urias/Peralta) and wanted to keep them together. So I needed to add something big. Ian had mentioned interest in Castellanos a few weeks ago, so he seemed like a natural guy to add here. I contemplated asking for something back, but I thought the guys I'd want would either be too pricey or not worth asking for. Ultimately, I made the 2-1 offer and Ian accepted.
Part of the reason I dealt for Castellanos late in the season was his trade appeal. With JD Martinez aging, I knew his market would shrink and while Castellanos has hit 30, he's coming off a monster season. His projection should be very good and depending where he goes, he should continue to rake. His defense is a minus and I already have two RF better than he, so he wasn't going to play there. He'd probably end up as a weak LF for me. Ian's crossing his fingers he gets a DH next year, I'm sure. But with Alonso, Castellanos, Mancini, Schoop, Hampson, and others, the Nationals should be a strong contender in 2022.
For me, I have an amazing start (assuming health) to the rotation with Bieber, Giolito, Buehler, and still a very stout offense. First big trade of the off-season with more to come (I'm sure).
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Re: Detroit Dealings
261. Dax Fulton, Kyren Paris, Philadelphia Draft Pick 1 to Chicago (AL) for Nick Madrigal, White Sox Draft Pick 2
One of my goals for the offseason was upgrading my second base situation. I started off the year with Eduardo Escobar and he had a great year for me and in real life, earning an All-Star bid. I moved Escobar in the deal to get Castellanos right before the trade deadline because I had the insurance blanket of David Fletcher, who had an amazing season, hitting .288/.349/.447 in 60 games. As it would happen, Fletcher tanked in the second half and his effectiveness in ZiPS world is unclear. He was hitting .314 when I traded for him on July 23 and he finished hitting .262. Not ideal. So, I wanted some additional insurance.
Jim saw my post and asked if I was interested in Madrigal. Presumably, now that Madrigal has been shipped to the crosstown rival Cubs, Jim is no longer as enamored with him. That's just my speculation, but Jim typically doesn't offer up White Sox easily. That said, I was happy to have the conversation. Madrigal has always had an amazing bat. He's only had a total of 54 games as a professional where he didn't hit over .300. In an injury shortened 2021, he hit .305 in 54 games in the majors, only striking out 7.9 percent of the time. I think he's an ideal leadoff hitter who had VG/57 defense in the sim last season.
In return, Jim gets three pretty nice assets. Fulton was an early second round pick in the 2020 draft and as a 6'6 lefty, projects as a No. 2-3 starter. He's projectable, creates a ton of angle on his fastball and spin on his curve. He struck out 74 batters in 78.1 IP over two levels last year. Paris projects as a 2B with above average power and blazing speed. He's young for his level, though he's missed some time due to injuries. Let's hope he can stay healthy and meet his potential. Jim also moved up six spots from the early 2nd round to the late 1st round.
All in all, I get some immediate help and a guy who's only 24 who can hit (albeit without any power) and plays great D. Jim refills his 2B pipeline, adds a potential solid lefty starter and moves up to get another first round pick, giving him three for February.
One of my goals for the offseason was upgrading my second base situation. I started off the year with Eduardo Escobar and he had a great year for me and in real life, earning an All-Star bid. I moved Escobar in the deal to get Castellanos right before the trade deadline because I had the insurance blanket of David Fletcher, who had an amazing season, hitting .288/.349/.447 in 60 games. As it would happen, Fletcher tanked in the second half and his effectiveness in ZiPS world is unclear. He was hitting .314 when I traded for him on July 23 and he finished hitting .262. Not ideal. So, I wanted some additional insurance.
Jim saw my post and asked if I was interested in Madrigal. Presumably, now that Madrigal has been shipped to the crosstown rival Cubs, Jim is no longer as enamored with him. That's just my speculation, but Jim typically doesn't offer up White Sox easily. That said, I was happy to have the conversation. Madrigal has always had an amazing bat. He's only had a total of 54 games as a professional where he didn't hit over .300. In an injury shortened 2021, he hit .305 in 54 games in the majors, only striking out 7.9 percent of the time. I think he's an ideal leadoff hitter who had VG/57 defense in the sim last season.
In return, Jim gets three pretty nice assets. Fulton was an early second round pick in the 2020 draft and as a 6'6 lefty, projects as a No. 2-3 starter. He's projectable, creates a ton of angle on his fastball and spin on his curve. He struck out 74 batters in 78.1 IP over two levels last year. Paris projects as a 2B with above average power and blazing speed. He's young for his level, though he's missed some time due to injuries. Let's hope he can stay healthy and meet his potential. Jim also moved up six spots from the early 2nd round to the late 1st round.
All in all, I get some immediate help and a guy who's only 24 who can hit (albeit without any power) and plays great D. Jim refills his 2B pipeline, adds a potential solid lefty starter and moves up to get another first round pick, giving him three for February.
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Re: Detroit Dealings
262. Andre Jackson, Jesus Galiz, Pirates Draft Pick 2 to Miami for Ryan Yarbrough, Carter Kieboom, Ryne Stanek
Classic example of some Friday night trade chatter actually turning into a deal. And in this scenario, I really didn't address a specific need, but rather gathered up some value/talent that can help this year. Nils and I had talked on and off about Stanek for a little bit. Not because Stanek is a stud, but because he's a solid righty setup reliever that I felt could be useful to me. I'm pretty strong in the back of the pen, but beyond Karinchak and Castillo hits Stammen/Robertson/Castro and I feel like there could be a drop off that warranted some insurance. Stanek will give me some of that. Yarbrough was a new piece during this discussion, mainly because he gives me some depth. He's a good swing guy who amazingly pitched 155 innings last year in Tampa. I need his ERA a run lower, but even still, I think he's a solid contributor. And despite being mostly a starter, he really did well against lefties, if he's needed in the pen. He reminds me of Mike Montgomery from a few years ago. The prize here was Kieboom. That may sound strange given that he hit .207 in 2021, but he's still only 24 and as a former top prospect, I love the gamble here. I don't need to use him, so I can root for a breakout and more development without worry. He certainly didn't light the world on fire in 2021, but I think he still has a strong future. I couldn't quite pry him from Jim, so picking him up from Nils was a nice get.
The main piece for Nils is Andre Jackson, whom I got from Miami for David Price in August. Jackson is 25 and had a really nice season in LA in 2021, moving up from AA to MLB. I think he's the type who could end up with a decent ZiPS given the numbers at multiple levels. If so, I think Nils is pretty happy to get him. Galiz is a 20-draftee who is very athletic, just 18, and a catching prospect for the Dodgers. He's a solid guy who had a rough debut. The pick is #57, so probably a FV 40+ type, if Nils plays it right.
Classic example of some Friday night trade chatter actually turning into a deal. And in this scenario, I really didn't address a specific need, but rather gathered up some value/talent that can help this year. Nils and I had talked on and off about Stanek for a little bit. Not because Stanek is a stud, but because he's a solid righty setup reliever that I felt could be useful to me. I'm pretty strong in the back of the pen, but beyond Karinchak and Castillo hits Stammen/Robertson/Castro and I feel like there could be a drop off that warranted some insurance. Stanek will give me some of that. Yarbrough was a new piece during this discussion, mainly because he gives me some depth. He's a good swing guy who amazingly pitched 155 innings last year in Tampa. I need his ERA a run lower, but even still, I think he's a solid contributor. And despite being mostly a starter, he really did well against lefties, if he's needed in the pen. He reminds me of Mike Montgomery from a few years ago. The prize here was Kieboom. That may sound strange given that he hit .207 in 2021, but he's still only 24 and as a former top prospect, I love the gamble here. I don't need to use him, so I can root for a breakout and more development without worry. He certainly didn't light the world on fire in 2021, but I think he still has a strong future. I couldn't quite pry him from Jim, so picking him up from Nils was a nice get.
The main piece for Nils is Andre Jackson, whom I got from Miami for David Price in August. Jackson is 25 and had a really nice season in LA in 2021, moving up from AA to MLB. I think he's the type who could end up with a decent ZiPS given the numbers at multiple levels. If so, I think Nils is pretty happy to get him. Galiz is a 20-draftee who is very athletic, just 18, and a catching prospect for the Dodgers. He's a solid guy who had a rough debut. The pick is #57, so probably a FV 40+ type, if Nils plays it right.
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Re: Detroit Dealings
263. Yasel Antuna and Christopher Morel to Kansas City for Travis d'Arnaud and Steven Okert
Not a monster trade here, but one that hopefully solves at least one key issue for me. With Astudilo getting DFA'd by the Twins and Barnhart moving to a less-than-ideal offensive situation in Detroit, catcher was looking pretty bleak. d'Arnaud isn't Johnny Bench, but he should be above average offensively and defensively and should provide some gap coverage here. Okert is a lefty RP who's been around a while and after a decent 2021 will hopefully add some value to the bullpen.
In return, Larry picks up a couple FV 45ish prospects. Morel I just picked up after a favorable writeup on Fangraphs with a Chris Taylor comp, meaning he has power, can play around and can't really hit. That would be an ideal outcome. Antuna recently moved from middle infield to corner outfield. He's got a cannon and a great bat, but didn't have the chops to stay on the infield, according to the experts. I picked him up at the deadline from Ken in the Nate Lowe trade. I love the upside, but as a non-2020 draftee, he was a guy I could move on from but wouldn't be dropping.
Not a monster trade here, but one that hopefully solves at least one key issue for me. With Astudilo getting DFA'd by the Twins and Barnhart moving to a less-than-ideal offensive situation in Detroit, catcher was looking pretty bleak. d'Arnaud isn't Johnny Bench, but he should be above average offensively and defensively and should provide some gap coverage here. Okert is a lefty RP who's been around a while and after a decent 2021 will hopefully add some value to the bullpen.
In return, Larry picks up a couple FV 45ish prospects. Morel I just picked up after a favorable writeup on Fangraphs with a Chris Taylor comp, meaning he has power, can play around and can't really hit. That would be an ideal outcome. Antuna recently moved from middle infield to corner outfield. He's got a cannon and a great bat, but didn't have the chops to stay on the infield, according to the experts. I picked him up at the deadline from Ken in the Nate Lowe trade. I love the upside, but as a non-2020 draftee, he was a guy I could move on from but wouldn't be dropping.
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Re: Detroit Dealings
264. Zack Greinke to Pittsburgh for Yuli Gurriel
I took a little hit in projection here, but filled another roster hole, albeit on a short-term basis. I knew coming into the offseason I needed to do something about the 1B situation. Carlos Santana struggled last year and ZiPS reminded him of it. With his OBP skills and switch hitting ability, he's ok on the bench, but not a great starter option. I haven't put a ton of effort into finding a replacement, but I did poke around without much success. I think a lot of owners are hanging onto potential DH types to see if the NL adds the DH through the CBA process, so some people are hesitant to give up a bat. JP hit me up about pitching and we briefly discussed a scenario that didn't pan out. When I took a closer look at the roster, I noticed Gurriel (whom I had last year) behind Belt and figured I'd make an ask. Sure enough, JP was interested in discussing and we put this together pretty quickly.
On its face, Greinke has more value with a 2.6 fWAR projection vs. Gurriel's 1.4 fWAR projection. As we all know, certain positions lose defensive value and 1B is one of them. Plus, while Greinke struggled at the end of the year and had low velocity, Gurriel had his best season ever at age 36/37. Bizarre. Both players are ancient in baseball terms and neither is signed for 2022 (Gurriel has a team option). I think the odds are both sign to play next year, but beyond that it's a little murky. I'm going to enjoy Gurriel's .286/.342/.426 projection for a year and JP gains some rotation stability, supposing there is a 2022 season...
I took a little hit in projection here, but filled another roster hole, albeit on a short-term basis. I knew coming into the offseason I needed to do something about the 1B situation. Carlos Santana struggled last year and ZiPS reminded him of it. With his OBP skills and switch hitting ability, he's ok on the bench, but not a great starter option. I haven't put a ton of effort into finding a replacement, but I did poke around without much success. I think a lot of owners are hanging onto potential DH types to see if the NL adds the DH through the CBA process, so some people are hesitant to give up a bat. JP hit me up about pitching and we briefly discussed a scenario that didn't pan out. When I took a closer look at the roster, I noticed Gurriel (whom I had last year) behind Belt and figured I'd make an ask. Sure enough, JP was interested in discussing and we put this together pretty quickly.
On its face, Greinke has more value with a 2.6 fWAR projection vs. Gurriel's 1.4 fWAR projection. As we all know, certain positions lose defensive value and 1B is one of them. Plus, while Greinke struggled at the end of the year and had low velocity, Gurriel had his best season ever at age 36/37. Bizarre. Both players are ancient in baseball terms and neither is signed for 2022 (Gurriel has a team option). I think the odds are both sign to play next year, but beyond that it's a little murky. I'm going to enjoy Gurriel's .286/.342/.426 projection for a year and JP gains some rotation stability, supposing there is a 2022 season...
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Re: Detroit Dealings
265. Miguel Amaya, Braxton Garrett, Jose Quijada to Tampa Bay for Andrew Knizner, Gage Workman, Misael Tamarez
After the Greinke/Gurriel deal, I had a little itch for trades, and since Matt and I had been discussing various guys I reached back out to offer up a couple players that were depth to see if he liked any. He was still interested in Garrett and Amaya from our talks, so we started there. Amaya is the big loss here. A former top 50 prospect and still only 22, Amaya had offseason TJ after the Cubs did the dumb wait and see approach that never works and wasted his whole season on rest and rehab only to ultimately have the surgery in the fall. He'll miss half of the season, but probably not as bad a situation as a pitcher. He's still a plus defender with a great eye and a need to develop the bat. Garrett is a former top 10 draft pick who has previously had TJ and had an up-and-down 2021. I think he could turn into something special, but he needs work. Quijada is a young lefty RP with a usable projection, but limited upside.
In return, I turn some of these extra pieces into some (hopefully) promising prospects. Workman is a 2020 draftee for Detroit who was a 3B and moved to SS. He has a plus arm and plus defense who showed good power and great speed in 2021. He just turned 22 and looks to start in A+ and likely move into AA in 2022. If he can cut down on the strikeouts, he has a chance to be a starting SS. Tamarez is an Astros pitching prospect, who, at 19, was hitting high 90s heat with three other developing pitches. A year earlier he was peaking at 93 MPH and now that's his floor. I really like the upside and Astros' history of developing pitching, so he was a nice get. Knizner has been a disappointment for St. Louis (who kept him over Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal). He projected better than his 2021 indicated, which may mean good things for ZiPS purposes. He obviously has much improvement do to, but he should play in 2022 and hopefully continue developing.
After the Greinke/Gurriel deal, I had a little itch for trades, and since Matt and I had been discussing various guys I reached back out to offer up a couple players that were depth to see if he liked any. He was still interested in Garrett and Amaya from our talks, so we started there. Amaya is the big loss here. A former top 50 prospect and still only 22, Amaya had offseason TJ after the Cubs did the dumb wait and see approach that never works and wasted his whole season on rest and rehab only to ultimately have the surgery in the fall. He'll miss half of the season, but probably not as bad a situation as a pitcher. He's still a plus defender with a great eye and a need to develop the bat. Garrett is a former top 10 draft pick who has previously had TJ and had an up-and-down 2021. I think he could turn into something special, but he needs work. Quijada is a young lefty RP with a usable projection, but limited upside.
In return, I turn some of these extra pieces into some (hopefully) promising prospects. Workman is a 2020 draftee for Detroit who was a 3B and moved to SS. He has a plus arm and plus defense who showed good power and great speed in 2021. He just turned 22 and looks to start in A+ and likely move into AA in 2022. If he can cut down on the strikeouts, he has a chance to be a starting SS. Tamarez is an Astros pitching prospect, who, at 19, was hitting high 90s heat with three other developing pitches. A year earlier he was peaking at 93 MPH and now that's his floor. I really like the upside and Astros' history of developing pitching, so he was a nice get. Knizner has been a disappointment for St. Louis (who kept him over Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal). He projected better than his 2021 indicated, which may mean good things for ZiPS purposes. He obviously has much improvement do to, but he should play in 2022 and hopefully continue developing.
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Re: Detroit Dealings
266. Mitchell Parker, Miguel Bleis to Atlanta for Johan Camargo, Jonathan Ornelas
After Brett posted his block, I reached out about Camargo, a former IBC Tiger, to act as a pinch hitter/backup bat. That led to a conversation about Brett looking for draft-eligible players to round out his roster. Parker was a pop-up guy in 2021 as a big lefty with monster strikeout numbers and some control issues. He moved up two levels last year as a 21-year-old, so I think he's got an ability to progress in 2022. Bleis I just recently picked up, but didn't really want to part with him. He's raw and only 17, but showed a nice eye in the DSL, and projects as a solid corner outfielder. The Red Sox seem to like him, so we'll see how he develops.
In return, Camargo is going to provide a little pop off the bench. He's now in Philly and ZiPS shows him as a first baseman. They also have Brad Miller and obviously Rhys Hoskins, so this may be a utility/DH situation. Either way, I see him as a solid bench bat with a little power and probably 4-5 position viability. Ornelas is a guy I originally drafted a few years ago that I've always liked. He's a shortstop who could develop at a few positions. He's never struck out a lot, but could walk a little more. The raw power seems to be about average and he needs to hit a little more, but I could see him as a utility player in the future.
After Brett posted his block, I reached out about Camargo, a former IBC Tiger, to act as a pinch hitter/backup bat. That led to a conversation about Brett looking for draft-eligible players to round out his roster. Parker was a pop-up guy in 2021 as a big lefty with monster strikeout numbers and some control issues. He moved up two levels last year as a 21-year-old, so I think he's got an ability to progress in 2022. Bleis I just recently picked up, but didn't really want to part with him. He's raw and only 17, but showed a nice eye in the DSL, and projects as a solid corner outfielder. The Red Sox seem to like him, so we'll see how he develops.
In return, Camargo is going to provide a little pop off the bench. He's now in Philly and ZiPS shows him as a first baseman. They also have Brad Miller and obviously Rhys Hoskins, so this may be a utility/DH situation. Either way, I see him as a solid bench bat with a little power and probably 4-5 position viability. Ornelas is a guy I originally drafted a few years ago that I've always liked. He's a shortstop who could develop at a few positions. He's never struck out a lot, but could walk a little more. The raw power seems to be about average and he needs to hit a little more, but I could see him as a utility player in the future.
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Guardians
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Re: Detroit Dealings
267. Carlos Santana to Miami for Daniel Hudson
Pretty easy deal here. Nils was looking to add a bat to his bench and having just picked up Camargo, Santana was easy for me to give up. He had an atrocious 2021 and ZiPS bears that out. I do think he could easily sim better than his projection, given that he has a history of power and great OBP. But he wasn't really a need at this point. Hudson, like Santana, is over 30. In his case, he's been inconsistent, but the stuff doesn't seem to have changed. He still throws hard and looks like a late-innings reliever. He was very good in Washington and just so-so after he got traded. But I think he adds some nice depth as a 6th/7th inning guy for me.
Pretty easy deal here. Nils was looking to add a bat to his bench and having just picked up Camargo, Santana was easy for me to give up. He had an atrocious 2021 and ZiPS bears that out. I do think he could easily sim better than his projection, given that he has a history of power and great OBP. But he wasn't really a need at this point. Hudson, like Santana, is over 30. In his case, he's been inconsistent, but the stuff doesn't seem to have changed. He still throws hard and looks like a late-innings reliever. He was very good in Washington and just so-so after he got traded. But I think he adds some nice depth as a 6th/7th inning guy for me.
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- Location: Tallahassee, FL
- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
268. Colton Welker, Chris McMahon to New York (NL) for Mets Draft Pick 3 (Cesar Prieto)
Welker is an ok backup this year, and while I like him a lot, I worry that he'll make it back to prospect prominence. McMahon is a FV40/45 pitcher in the Colorado system who could be a #3/4 if it all clicks. I approached John because I really wanted to bring in Prieto and he needed draft roster guys, so I offered McMahon. I sweetened the pot with Welker, especially given that John had roster room. I didn't, so dealing 2-1 for Howard temporarily helped me a lot. Then we traded back after we were done drafting.
Prieto is a Cuban import, a 22-year-old second baseman signed by the Orioles and known for having a great bat. He started the year at A+ and given that he's advanced, I could see him moving fast through the system. He hit .403/.463/.579 in 360 plate appearances with only 11 strikeouts in his last season in Cuba before defecting. Hopefully there's a nice transition to stateside ball and he moves fast, giving me another hitter as soon as 2023.
Welker is an ok backup this year, and while I like him a lot, I worry that he'll make it back to prospect prominence. McMahon is a FV40/45 pitcher in the Colorado system who could be a #3/4 if it all clicks. I approached John because I really wanted to bring in Prieto and he needed draft roster guys, so I offered McMahon. I sweetened the pot with Welker, especially given that John had roster room. I didn't, so dealing 2-1 for Howard temporarily helped me a lot. Then we traded back after we were done drafting.
Prieto is a Cuban import, a 22-year-old second baseman signed by the Orioles and known for having a great bat. He started the year at A+ and given that he's advanced, I could see him moving fast through the system. He hit .403/.463/.579 in 360 plate appearances with only 11 strikeouts in his last season in Cuba before defecting. Hopefully there's a nice transition to stateside ball and he moves fast, giving me another hitter as soon as 2023.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
- Location: Tallahassee, FL
- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
269. Daniel Hudson to Cleveland for Indians Draft Pick 3 (Nick Nastrini)
Around the time I was talking with John about the Prieto pick, I was talking with Jim about adding another pick in this range. Hudson is a solid middle reliever and probably a guy who can log 50 solid innings. He's also over 35, so the upside is limited. I felt like it was a decent gamble to move on from him in order to take Nastrini. He's certainly a gamble. He's got four pitches and a great pitcher frame at 6'3 215. But the control is a problem. I liked what I read about him and was fairly certain someone else out there probably saw some of the scouting reports and was looking at him, too. This was as much a pick of him as the Dodgers' ability to help iron out some flaws. In a very small 2021 sample, he had 32 K in 14 innings over two levels. If he can improve command, he can improve his chances of starting. If not, there may be a dominant reliever eventually here.
Around the time I was talking with John about the Prieto pick, I was talking with Jim about adding another pick in this range. Hudson is a solid middle reliever and probably a guy who can log 50 solid innings. He's also over 35, so the upside is limited. I felt like it was a decent gamble to move on from him in order to take Nastrini. He's certainly a gamble. He's got four pitches and a great pitcher frame at 6'3 215. But the control is a problem. I liked what I read about him and was fairly certain someone else out there probably saw some of the scouting reports and was looking at him, too. This was as much a pick of him as the Dodgers' ability to help iron out some flaws. In a very small 2021 sample, he had 32 K in 14 innings over two levels. If he can improve command, he can improve his chances of starting. If not, there may be a dominant reliever eventually here.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
270. Craig Stammen, Gage Workman to Cleveland for Mitch Keller
After Jim and I linked up for the pick for Hudson deal, I reached back out just to let him know that after looking over his roster, I had my eye on Keller. And there was no real reason why -- his projection isn't very good -- but he is one of those guys I've always liked and after a couple poor seasons, I thought maybe he'd be a guy Jim would be willing to move. He had already told me that relief pitching was still on his wish list, so I tossed out Craig Stammen as a starting point along with a trio of prospects I offered him. Stammen is old, so I was pretty confident a 1-1 wouldn't work, but with the right prospect, I thought it was possible. Jim selected Workman and the deal was done.
Stammen is my 4th best reliever, but would be a closer or set up guy on many teams. His projection is going to help Jim immensely (3.47 ERA 72.2 IP 66 K 15 BB 120 ERA+ 1.0 fWAR), which will hurt me at times this year. But one of my goals has been to add young talent just above the prospect level and Keller checks that box. He's similar to the deal I made for Kieboom...guys who have lost a little shine but still have a pedigree that is very good. Keller has the velocity, but never the control/ability to miss the barrel, so it's a project. But a fun one.
After Jim and I linked up for the pick for Hudson deal, I reached back out just to let him know that after looking over his roster, I had my eye on Keller. And there was no real reason why -- his projection isn't very good -- but he is one of those guys I've always liked and after a couple poor seasons, I thought maybe he'd be a guy Jim would be willing to move. He had already told me that relief pitching was still on his wish list, so I tossed out Craig Stammen as a starting point along with a trio of prospects I offered him. Stammen is old, so I was pretty confident a 1-1 wouldn't work, but with the right prospect, I thought it was possible. Jim selected Workman and the deal was done.
Stammen is my 4th best reliever, but would be a closer or set up guy on many teams. His projection is going to help Jim immensely (3.47 ERA 72.2 IP 66 K 15 BB 120 ERA+ 1.0 fWAR), which will hurt me at times this year. But one of my goals has been to add young talent just above the prospect level and Keller checks that box. He's similar to the deal I made for Kieboom...guys who have lost a little shine but still have a pedigree that is very good. Keller has the velocity, but never the control/ability to miss the barrel, so it's a project. But a fun one.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
271. Misael Tamarez to Tampa Bay for Rays Draft Pick 4 (Robert Gasser)
As I was looking for teams with picks in the 3rd/4th range, I noticed Tampa had several in the early 90s. So I reached out to Matt and we discussed a few names. I didn't have to have a deal, but as the draft dragged on, it became a form of entertainment to try to stay engaged. We settled on Tamarez for pick #93. Tamarez is a hard throwing righty in the Astros system that I actually got from Matt last month. He had 103 K over 72 innings last year and started the season in AA, tossing 3 scoreless innings with 6 K. I think there's something special there, but the scouting reports haven't caught up to the performance yet.
In exchange, I snagged Robert Gasser, a 2nd round supplemental pick of the Padres who's 6 months older and a level below Tamarez at this point. But he's a loose lefty with three pitches and an ability to get strikeouts against lefties and righties. Either pitcher is a gamble, but I get a draft-eligible player and a lefty, which benefits my roster. Matt gets the guy who's a little more advanced at this stage.
As I was looking for teams with picks in the 3rd/4th range, I noticed Tampa had several in the early 90s. So I reached out to Matt and we discussed a few names. I didn't have to have a deal, but as the draft dragged on, it became a form of entertainment to try to stay engaged. We settled on Tamarez for pick #93. Tamarez is a hard throwing righty in the Astros system that I actually got from Matt last month. He had 103 K over 72 innings last year and started the season in AA, tossing 3 scoreless innings with 6 K. I think there's something special there, but the scouting reports haven't caught up to the performance yet.
In exchange, I snagged Robert Gasser, a 2nd round supplemental pick of the Padres who's 6 months older and a level below Tamarez at this point. But he's a loose lefty with three pitches and an ability to get strikeouts against lefties and righties. Either pitcher is a gamble, but I get a draft-eligible player and a lefty, which benefits my roster. Matt gets the guy who's a little more advanced at this stage.
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Guardians
- Posts: 4615
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
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- Name: Pat Gillespie
Re: Detroit Dealings
272. Daniel Norris, Jagger Haynes to Kansas City for Matt Strahm
This was a bit of an under-the-radar deal between Larry and I. He was short draft roster guys and I never mind an upgrade. Strahm isn't amazing and either is Norris. Haynes was a really fun pick given his name and the fact that the Padres felt he was a steal for them in the 5th round in 2020. The problem is he hasn't pitched and then had TJ, so there's a ton of unknown. But he could end up being a nice get for Larry. Norris has been ok and Strahm has been better than that in real life, but the projections aren't too dissimilar.
This was a bit of an under-the-radar deal between Larry and I. He was short draft roster guys and I never mind an upgrade. Strahm isn't amazing and either is Norris. Haynes was a really fun pick given his name and the fact that the Padres felt he was a steal for them in the 5th round in 2020. The problem is he hasn't pitched and then had TJ, so there's a ton of unknown. But he could end up being a nice get for Larry. Norris has been ok and Strahm has been better than that in real life, but the projections aren't too dissimilar.
